The likely party-winner is the CDU-CSU combo....at 33-percent.
2nd place? AfD stands presently at 17-percent.
3rd place? SPD, at 15-percent.
4th place? Greens at 14-percent.
5th place? BSW (the new party) at 5-percent.
Both the Linke and FDP are rated at less than 5-percent.....unless things change, they won't get seats in the Bundestag.
If you do the coalition game? Well....the CDU-CSU has openly said it won't partner with the AfD (no one will).....so if you have only 5 parties getting seats....it puts the CDU-CSU in a harsh situation....either a partnership with the SPD OR Greens.
If the FDP bumps up to 5-percent, or the BSW bumps up to 9-percent....yeah, would change the dynamics of the coalition business.
As for the top five topics of this campaign? I'd say the economy, energy costs, migration reform, crime, and the environment. Yeah, somewhere in the mix....the end of the war needs to be discussed.....the Russian relations in the future....nuke energy being brought back....and what to do about the Syrians at this point.
Scholz? No matter how you view the future....he's gone.
Merz is the next Chancellor. It's the partnership that matters at this point.
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