For those who aren't into German politics.....the CDU and CSU parties....are 'brother-and-sister', with the CSU ONLY competing in Bavaria (the state), while the CDU competes in the other fifteen states.
On 'leaning'? I would suggest that the CSU leans slightly more to the right....than the CDU.
So, it's a curious development of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition....they want to modify the election rules, and in a national election....if you didn't clear 5-percent of the national vote.....you'd get no seats (meaning the Linke Party and CSU folks might be out). For the record, in 2021's election....the CSU crossed the line with 5.17 percent of the national vote (purely out of Bavaria by itself).
Yes, the CSU folks are pretty peeved how this draft bill is written and voice some strong complaints.
Today, a journalist went out and suggested that the CSU might finally stand up and tell the CDU folks....they'd compete in another state or two (suggesting eastern German states). The two states suggested? Thuringia and Saxony.
Upsetting the CDU folks? Yeah....I would assume that it's going to anger them.
In Thuringia....the Linke Party has a strong presence (2019 state election, getting 31-percent of the vote). The AfD folks came in 2nd place with 23-percent, and the CDU Party came in with 22-percent.
The CSU performs slightly more to the right on a number of issues, and I would suggest in a national election....they might split voters off from both the CDU and AfD folks.....probably getting around 7-points from each....getting around 14-percent of the states votes.
In Saxony? AfD under-performs there, with 11-percent in the last state election and the CDU took only 28-percent (coming in 2nd place after the SPD). Again, the CSU might be able to swing 5 points off both the AfD and CDU....getting 10-percent.
What this gears up? National election? I'd suggest that the Bavarian CSU folks could double their national trend with 10-to-12 percent.....stealing some voters from the CDU and AfD. This would ensure seats in the Bundestag.
I won't advocate this as being smart or clever.....just that you'd split voters from conservative paths existing already.
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