N-TV (commercial news in Germany) did a fine journalism piece today....asking the question if Germans can survive the 2020 summer.....not leaving the country, and just seeing German itself. Great piece to read (in German).
Working-class Germans (probably making up half the population of the country, 83-million) will typically take off for two to three weeks in the year. Some go on wild exotic trips to Peru. Some go on history tours of the Nile. Some go on quiet isle situations in Greece. Some want the all luxury deal on the Garda See (Italy). Some just want two weeks of camping in France.
N-TV points out that various tour operators are cranking up possible ideas for scenic tours or trips around Germany itself. The appeal of this? I brought this up two weeks ago to my German wife. Her take? Anything was better than nothing, but going to Bavaria or the streets of Hamburg....wasn't exactly exotic enough for her. Camping? That's a no-go (in the extreme). She did finally agree that Garmisch might be 'enchanting' enough for ten days.
Selling the bulk of Germans on a 'only-Germany' might work to a minor degree, for six months. But if this wild 'ban' game played on into 2021? This is the problem I see with this process. No one can say or sure if international flights will crank back up, or if people are willing to risk themselves....into being stuck somewhere if some stage II or stage III virus game starts up.
So the point here....can you go and convince not just thousands, or tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands....but literally millions of Germans that vacation in Germany itself is a 'winner'.
My suggestion would be to line up a dozen well known Germans (Dieter Bohlen, Michael Mittermeier, Mario Barth, Bulent Ceylan, and the Chancellor herself), and stage advertising.
Have some some great sympathy music with poetry read by Bohlen while showing the streets of Bremen. Put on some 'Sweet Home Alabama' music with Ceylan giving you a three-minute tour of Frankfurt.
To make this work, you need something unique and different compared to the typical beaches of Greece sales job.
Saturday, May 2, 2020
Corona and the March State Elections in Germany
We are around ten months away from two significant state elections in Germany (March 2021: Baden-Wurttemberg, and the Pfalz....the two southern states of Germany).
Six months ago, I would have said that the Green Party would be able to achieve a significant amount of votes in both elections.
Today? No. The SPD will likely recover....mostly because of strong leadership actions during the recent crisis period.
In the case of Baden-Wurttemberg, I suspect that the CDU will come out (say 5 points over the 2nd place folks) as a winner, with the SPD marginally ahead of the Greens. Yes, the Greens might actually lose 10 points over 2016's election.
In the case of the Pfalz, I suspect that the SPD should clearly take 32-percent or more of the ballots, with the CDU fairly close to 30-percent themselves.
More gain votes because of practical demonstrations during the crisis. The Greens? It's pretty crazy....there they were in the summer of 2019....looking great, and Habeck thinking he might squeeze the Chancellor's job out of the direction things were going.
It's hard to say that the virus benefited some political situation....but in this case, yes, it did.
Six months ago, I would have said that the Green Party would be able to achieve a significant amount of votes in both elections.
Today? No. The SPD will likely recover....mostly because of strong leadership actions during the recent crisis period.
In the case of Baden-Wurttemberg, I suspect that the CDU will come out (say 5 points over the 2nd place folks) as a winner, with the SPD marginally ahead of the Greens. Yes, the Greens might actually lose 10 points over 2016's election.
In the case of the Pfalz, I suspect that the SPD should clearly take 32-percent or more of the ballots, with the CDU fairly close to 30-percent themselves.
More gain votes because of practical demonstrations during the crisis. The Greens? It's pretty crazy....there they were in the summer of 2019....looking great, and Habeck thinking he might squeeze the Chancellor's job out of the direction things were going.
It's hard to say that the virus benefited some political situation....but in this case, yes, it did.
Acceptance of the Ban Rules
Just humble observations.
Back in mid-March, as some rules and bans came up.....Germans tended to listen. Maybe 10-percent of folks (a lot of the younger Turks for example) said 'no' and tried to slip around the bans.
But time passed, and by mid-April....with warmer weather, the ban-game just wasn't working. I'd take a guess, just on observing people in public....that one-third of the public were now refusing to play the game. Even if the police came up to 'correct' them.....they weren't going to listen.
At this point, 2 May, I'd say we are at the point where 60 to 70 percent of the German public is fed up. Business owners are peeved and facing financial jeopardy. Hotels are facing ruin, and restaurants are facing an unsure future if this continues on into July.
The hookers? I read this past week that a fair number of them have obeyed the shutdown of the brothels, but simply gone to the streets now instead.
These 'specials' which run at 8:15 PM now nightly.....trying to hype the virus business....are rapidly losing viewers. In some cases, the forums have flipped and now talk more about the upcoming recession, and the effect on the economy.
The 'hamster' game, with toilet paper disappearing off the shelves? This morning, I walk into an Edeka store and the shelves were overflowing with toilet paper.
The odds that the ban stuff can continue? I would say in the next week....more than three-quarters of the public will be finished, and the political game out of Berlin won't work anymore. Just to utter recession and suggest that everyone must suffer from this ban stuff now.....won't work on the general public.
Demonstrations? A number were noticed around the country.....a few left-wing....a few right-wing. They all tend to agree....bans are finished in terms of being worth something.
Back in mid-March, as some rules and bans came up.....Germans tended to listen. Maybe 10-percent of folks (a lot of the younger Turks for example) said 'no' and tried to slip around the bans.
But time passed, and by mid-April....with warmer weather, the ban-game just wasn't working. I'd take a guess, just on observing people in public....that one-third of the public were now refusing to play the game. Even if the police came up to 'correct' them.....they weren't going to listen.
At this point, 2 May, I'd say we are at the point where 60 to 70 percent of the German public is fed up. Business owners are peeved and facing financial jeopardy. Hotels are facing ruin, and restaurants are facing an unsure future if this continues on into July.
The hookers? I read this past week that a fair number of them have obeyed the shutdown of the brothels, but simply gone to the streets now instead.
These 'specials' which run at 8:15 PM now nightly.....trying to hype the virus business....are rapidly losing viewers. In some cases, the forums have flipped and now talk more about the upcoming recession, and the effect on the economy.
The 'hamster' game, with toilet paper disappearing off the shelves? This morning, I walk into an Edeka store and the shelves were overflowing with toilet paper.
The odds that the ban stuff can continue? I would say in the next week....more than three-quarters of the public will be finished, and the political game out of Berlin won't work anymore. Just to utter recession and suggest that everyone must suffer from this ban stuff now.....won't work on the general public.
Demonstrations? A number were noticed around the country.....a few left-wing....a few right-wing. They all tend to agree....bans are finished in terms of being worth something.
Germany and the Coronavirus: 2 May 2020
As you might notice, I'm not doing this segment daily, because the whole 'circus-affair' has dropped a great deal in significance. In fact, if you go to review nightly public TV segments.....they seem to now talk a great deal about the 'doomed' economy, and the spiraling GDP. The virus experts no longer appear as frequent as they did in mid-March.
1. Deaths: 6,601 Infected: 161,972 (Focus numbers). Bavaria leads with 1,886 deaths of the sixteen German states. Bremen (the state) has 30 deaths, at the very end of the statistical numbers.
2. A Stanford study came out via N-TV, and has made the German rounds....these doctors are suggesting that the virus is no more significant than the flu. The problem with the study? They used people mostly from California (central region). It might have been more interesting had this involved NY City, or Milano, Italy. Unknown effect.
3. Major effort yesterday in a Berlin-area, to halt a demonstration (Mayday, leftist group). Mostly failed, but it got a lot of pro-visus/anti-demonstration chatter going. Focus did a good report on this.
4. Focus reports that a fair amount of legal actions are going on....using the court system to challenge both Merkel and the leadership authority of the coalition. Judges now having to review legal codes and see if bans are legal? Yes, and this might turn kinda interesting.
5. If you look over a map to find the Maldives, it's about 600 km south of India, and it's one of those big destinations for hearty and well-to-do Germans for vacations. For about six weeks now, there's not been any flights down, and there's around a thousand total tourists (most are German) who are STUCK on the island. No exit, no entry. They aren't exacting crazy about this, but their hotel costs have been picked up by the national tourist office there and they will quietly sit there and wait for flights to start back up.
6. Beaches opening in Germany? Right now, Lower Saxony is starting a planned opening. Don't get excited.....yet. The rule will be one family unit or couple for each 25 square meters (roughly the size of a living room). Social beach distancing, I guess you could call it. My guess is that in two weeks, virtually all beaches in Germany will be open (with rules/bans).
1. Deaths: 6,601 Infected: 161,972 (Focus numbers). Bavaria leads with 1,886 deaths of the sixteen German states. Bremen (the state) has 30 deaths, at the very end of the statistical numbers.
2. A Stanford study came out via N-TV, and has made the German rounds....these doctors are suggesting that the virus is no more significant than the flu. The problem with the study? They used people mostly from California (central region). It might have been more interesting had this involved NY City, or Milano, Italy. Unknown effect.
3. Major effort yesterday in a Berlin-area, to halt a demonstration (Mayday, leftist group). Mostly failed, but it got a lot of pro-visus/anti-demonstration chatter going. Focus did a good report on this.
4. Focus reports that a fair amount of legal actions are going on....using the court system to challenge both Merkel and the leadership authority of the coalition. Judges now having to review legal codes and see if bans are legal? Yes, and this might turn kinda interesting.
5. If you look over a map to find the Maldives, it's about 600 km south of India, and it's one of those big destinations for hearty and well-to-do Germans for vacations. For about six weeks now, there's not been any flights down, and there's around a thousand total tourists (most are German) who are STUCK on the island. No exit, no entry. They aren't exacting crazy about this, but their hotel costs have been picked up by the national tourist office there and they will quietly sit there and wait for flights to start back up.
6. Beaches opening in Germany? Right now, Lower Saxony is starting a planned opening. Don't get excited.....yet. The rule will be one family unit or couple for each 25 square meters (roughly the size of a living room). Social beach distancing, I guess you could call it. My guess is that in two weeks, virtually all beaches in Germany will be open (with rules/bans).
Attack on TV Crew?
Pretty odd event, and rarely ever seen. N-TV reported the basic story.
A TV crew (at least five members of ZDF, Channel Two, public TV) were out in Berlin and wrapped up a 'shoot'. On their way to the vehicle.....a 'gang' came up and brutally beat the crew....at least four members required transport to a local hospital.
Reason? Unknown. Pattern or Background? Unknown.
Cops have arrested six folks that they were suspecting involved. But nothing much said. Area of town? Simply spoken as the middle of Berlin.
Right-wing or left-wing, or just revolutionary types, or perhaps some criminal gang element? Take your pick. Perhaps more by Monday.
A TV crew (at least five members of ZDF, Channel Two, public TV) were out in Berlin and wrapped up a 'shoot'. On their way to the vehicle.....a 'gang' came up and brutally beat the crew....at least four members required transport to a local hospital.
Reason? Unknown. Pattern or Background? Unknown.
Cops have arrested six folks that they were suspecting involved. But nothing much said. Area of town? Simply spoken as the middle of Berlin.
Right-wing or left-wing, or just revolutionary types, or perhaps some criminal gang element? Take your pick. Perhaps more by Monday.
Friday, May 1, 2020
Four Odd Districts
What do the towns or districts of Emden, Flensburg, Rostock and Wesermarsch have in common? All have zero new infections (Rostock was the first to achieve this status).
N-TV carried this piece today.
How? Unknown. Maybe it's social distancing and attention to detail, or just plain luck.
My local town of Wiesbaden? In the past 24 hours.....five new folks on the infection list. Right now in the city of 285,000.....a total of 51 who are doing home-quarantine or hospital-quarantine right now. From my village itself? Out of roughly 4,000.....we've had around five of the total 318 from day one.
N-TV carried this piece today.
How? Unknown. Maybe it's social distancing and attention to detail, or just plain luck.
My local town of Wiesbaden? In the past 24 hours.....five new folks on the infection list. Right now in the city of 285,000.....a total of 51 who are doing home-quarantine or hospital-quarantine right now. From my village itself? Out of roughly 4,000.....we've had around five of the total 318 from day one.
Two Series I Recommend
Over the past month, I've watched two mini-series off Netflix here in Germany. Both I highly recommend.
1. Peaky Blinders. A British gritty crime series (five years, around six episodes per year made. Set to the 1920s. The writing is great, and fantastic acting.
But as you look at the attire, the cars, and the landscape....it's extremely well done for the 1920s era. If the era interests you.....you might be surprised.
It also touches on the veterans who came back from WW I, and were fairly messed up.
2. After Life. A two-year series by Ricky Gervais.
Ok, it's a blunt series on death and the inability of this guy to live with wife gone. For anyone who has lost a loved one, I would recommend the series.
Some is awful direct, and tough to 'swallow'. It's also loaded with dark humor and looking at the various faults that we all seem to live with.
Of the various streaming services....I kinda like Netflix because it offers various shows in both English and German, and the monthly rate is fair enough (around 7 Euro).
1. Peaky Blinders. A British gritty crime series (five years, around six episodes per year made. Set to the 1920s. The writing is great, and fantastic acting.
But as you look at the attire, the cars, and the landscape....it's extremely well done for the 1920s era. If the era interests you.....you might be surprised.
It also touches on the veterans who came back from WW I, and were fairly messed up.
2. After Life. A two-year series by Ricky Gervais.
Ok, it's a blunt series on death and the inability of this guy to live with wife gone. For anyone who has lost a loved one, I would recommend the series.
Some is awful direct, and tough to 'swallow'. It's also loaded with dark humor and looking at the various faults that we all seem to live with.
Of the various streaming services....I kinda like Netflix because it offers various shows in both English and German, and the monthly rate is fair enough (around 7 Euro).
The Game of Bankruptcy
This morning, if you view ARD news, there is a new twist to the Lufthansa chatter over bankruptcy.
In recent weeks, with the airline in serious 'freefall'.....there's been a serious amount of talk over Lufthansa having to declare bankruptcy because of massive cuts in flights.
The latest talk is this....the pilots of Lufthansa have come to the organization and said....if you don't declare bankruptcy, we will give up 45-percent of our normal salary, until the summer of 2022 (roughly two years away).
What's this equal? About 350 million Euro.
The odds of the airline accepting the deal? Unknown.
Some might go and suggest that if bankruptcy occurs, a number of planes will be cut/sold off (for a loss), and the airline would rapidly downsize (maybe a quarter less.....maybe even 50-percent less).
Here's the other part of the story, you just don't know when normal flight operations would start up, or if people would fly at the same rate that they did in 2019. For the remainder of 2020? I seriously doubt that things even go to a 40-percent rate by the end of 2020.
It could be the end of 2021 before you see things near to 80-to-90 percent of expected flights.
If Lufthansa goes the bankruptcy route and says no to the pilots? Well....as they enter into this bankruptcy.....pilots will be let go, and no competition is standing there to pick up their resumes. They might be sitting there and drawing a marginal furlough unemployment pay situation....for a year or two.
In recent weeks, with the airline in serious 'freefall'.....there's been a serious amount of talk over Lufthansa having to declare bankruptcy because of massive cuts in flights.
The latest talk is this....the pilots of Lufthansa have come to the organization and said....if you don't declare bankruptcy, we will give up 45-percent of our normal salary, until the summer of 2022 (roughly two years away).
What's this equal? About 350 million Euro.
The odds of the airline accepting the deal? Unknown.
Some might go and suggest that if bankruptcy occurs, a number of planes will be cut/sold off (for a loss), and the airline would rapidly downsize (maybe a quarter less.....maybe even 50-percent less).
Here's the other part of the story, you just don't know when normal flight operations would start up, or if people would fly at the same rate that they did in 2019. For the remainder of 2020? I seriously doubt that things even go to a 40-percent rate by the end of 2020.
It could be the end of 2021 before you see things near to 80-to-90 percent of expected flights.
If Lufthansa goes the bankruptcy route and says no to the pilots? Well....as they enter into this bankruptcy.....pilots will be let go, and no competition is standing there to pick up their resumes. They might be sitting there and drawing a marginal furlough unemployment pay situation....for a year or two.
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