The Lure Technique

The Wall Street Journal put up an interesting article yesterday (27 Feb 2015):

The biggest coup of Islamic State's propaganda is its capacity to touch a similar nerve with it's own Utopian vision today, attracting the bored idealists, the misfits, and the adventurers from across Europe.  Like the Communists, Islamic State promises universal welfare, free medicine and social justice.  "It is fundamentally the same malaise that is also inspiring the far-left activists," said Thomass Hegghammer, director of terrorism research at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment.  

Over the past year, I've watched German, French and British coverage of the recruitment aspect of ISIS.  You tend to notice after a while....they don't go after thirty year old to sixty year old guys.  These are the ones who aren't so easily lured into some get-dead-quick scheme.  If you approached some forty-five year old Turk in Frankfurt and laid down the VIP status of a Islamic warrior....there would be questions.  Just suggesting some sixty-odd virgins might be gained by this unique status.....won't usually work with a forty-five year old guy.

All of this brings me to the topic of mass movement....something that Eric Hoffer wrote about in the 1950s and introduced the public to the various methods where a mass movement wins converts and establishes itself as a significant power.

He wrote:

Faith in a holy cause is to considerable extent a substitute for lost faith in ourselves.  (page 14, True Believer)

Hoffer might be absolutely right in this regard.  Whether by bad luck, poor schooling, or lost trust in the system.....a generation has been created in the midst of Europe who are uninspired about their future.  "False-friends" appear.....talk up a cause and inspire their new friend for a purpose in life.  They climb onto the wagon and go off for the great thrill of life.  Weeks later, reality hits them, or they are dead.

But Hoffer goes a step further in talking about this division of society:

A man is likely to mind his own business when it worth minding.  When it is not, he takes his own mind off his own meaningless affairs by minding other people's business. (page 14, True Believer)

By losing sight of any achievable accomplishment in life.....a guy gets a warped sense of society and his ambitions in life.  Suddenly, he's worried about other people, their intentions, and their achievements....NOT his own.  This is where ISIS took their convert and delivered them to some fundamental view of life.....worrying less about himself and those close to him, and worrying more about everyone except himself and those close to him.

A psychological bluff?  In some way, it's a simple task.  You take a guy who isn't that bright or been around the block enough to ask stupid questions.  It helps to be young and naive.  You give them the mission statement.....you talk about helping those of your religion.....and keep the discussion secretive.  It helps to avoid letting your parents know, or the real friends in your life know your acceptance of something different.

One of the odd themes of the Quran....is that over fifty-percent of the document concerns non-believers, not Muslims.  A great deal of his worries.....weren't about religion or the lifestyle of a good member of the religion.....it was worry about non-believers.  In 1,400 years....some things haven't changed.

In essence, there is a substitution going on for individual hope and individual thinking.

For all the wisdom dished out by Eric Hoffer in The True Believer.....there's a general belief that a mass movement can only survive through certain stages.  It either resolves itself, comes to a conclusion, or simply runs out of steam.   Hoffer has been dead for over thirty years.  He never envisioned something like ISIS, and he might suggest some alternate ending scenario for them.

As for this misfit behavior and recruiting tool?  You would think that a broad band of parents observing this....would eventually react and realize the impact of naive thinking.  But then what?  Is a forty-year old parent going to sit down and talk over false-friends and false religious agendas?  It's hard enough to get some parent to talk over lusty stuff and sex with a thirteen-year old kid.....but talk radical Islam?

The radical guys are more or less betting that these frank discussions between a parent and child won't occur.  Their recruitment tools depend on a lack of discussions.

Update to the Shepherd Episode

I wrote an essay recently over Andre L. Shepherd, the US Army deserter sitting in a German refugee center.....waiting out a request for asylum as a war protester.  There's been an update to the episode.

To introduce you to the Shepherd case.....it takes a pretty simple explanation.  Shepherd is convinced to join the US Army for a short-tour (something like a 15-month to 18-month sign-up deal).  He signs up, goes to boot-camp and some school.....then gets a one-year tour in Iraq.  It's safe to say that he's not happy with 'war' but fulfills that obligation.  For some reason, yet to ever be fully understood.....he signs up for another period (some say three years but it's not clear).  What Shepherd says is that someone in the Army promised him that he'd never have to go off to war, and that's the only way that he reenlisted.

To this date, he's never identified this person who messed him up.....that the Army would never take him to a war front.  It would be an amazing deal.....spent twenty years in the Army and know that you never have to go off to war.  I know.....if you aren't going to be a participant in a war-situation....why would the Army even need you?

So, Shepherd is sitting at a Army post in Germany.....assigned to the 12th Combat Aviation Brigade.  He walks out the gate, and deserts when the unit is given a deployment order.  He asks Germany for asylum.  They send him to an asylum center and paperwork starts.

There's some issues though for the German government of modern times compared to the German government of 1969.  Today, they ask stupid questions.

Shepherd was a volunteer for contract number one and contract number two.  Shepherd has already served one tour in a war-zone.  The logic doesn't really fit.....so they prolong this process.  Eventually around 2011.....they turn down the request but Shepherd refiles the case.

This year....Shepherd will start year seven of the refugee center.

This past week, the EU Court sat down and handed out this decision.  IF Shepherd can show that he was going into a situation where war crimes were going to occur, then the application should be approved.

The problem here, which few journalists are willing to discuss over the episode.....the 12th Aviation Brigade and every member of the unit.....as far as I can see.....during this particular deployment 2007-2008....were never accused of war crimes.  The EU Court is kinda hinting.....you need this war crimes angle to fit the current asylum arrangement.  Shepherd lacks the angle.

I sat and watched the state-run TV news of last night and there was a brief 100-second piece over it.  His lawyer was pretty positive over the EU Court ruling and how this would all work out.  Frankly, it just lays the whole mess back at the feet of Shepherd and his former unit.  Without any war crimes angle, he's screwed.

How long can he play this out?  In a good poker game.....even if you bluff a bit, there's some point where a good bluff won't help much.  Then the game ends.  I imagine that Shepherd and his lawyer can bluff a bit through the rest of 2015, and maybe delay this into spring of 2016.  Maybe they can find someone who will vouch for war crimes and stir the pot a bit with a bluff that war crimes might have been committed.  The Germans might be curious though and ask why war crimes didn't get mentioned in 2009 or 2010?  Why suddenly now?

Here's the sad part of this story.  If Shepherd had gone to the US....he'd done two years max in some brig.  So far, it's going to seven years in some German asylum center, and there's no end to this story.

Minimum Wage Talk for 2017

It's not one of those stories that you will notice much in the German news, but it has serious consequences for small business operations throughout Germany.

When all the smoke was done with the minimum wage discussion....not only did the wage go up to 8.50 Euro per hour......but they decided it was better to remove this future situation from the hands of the Bundestag.  So a committee was formed.  They will be the future of all talks on pushing minimum wage in Germany up.

The nine-person committee would have some breathing room established....1 January 2017 is the date where they have to pull to push the minimum wage yet again.

Somewhere in this situation is a requirement for more documentation.....for employers.  There are some stringent rules on record keeping.....which means some added expense for all companies.  The CDU/CSU folks want this record keeping to be kept on employees 1,900 Euro or less.  The SPD folks want the record keeping kept on employees making 2,958 Euro or less.  Neither party will say the number of employees involved or how their angle is different or better.

It's a mixed bag when you look at how this minimum wage episode went over with Germans.  I noticed someone chatting about their hair stylist and the recent cost increase.  Prior to minimum wage changes.....the rate with this was 27.90 Euro.....after the minimum wage episode went into affect....it was 32.90 Euro.  She asked why such a hefty rate surge.....slightly fewer customers now was the answer so they had to make up for the situation.  This drew out the conversation....why fewer customers, and the response from the stylist-boss was that the price was too hefty, thus driving out customers.   I know....it's a stupid argument but this is how people perceive this whole minimum wage change in Germany.

As an American looking over this episode.....Germany has had wage stagnation going on for years.  It's not just minimum wage folks.....it goes up and down the line.  You could easily walk into a sixty-man business operation and ask anyone who has been in the company for twenty years about their pay-raises.  If you were lucky over a twenty-year period, you might get two or three pay-raises.  German bosses tend to be tough on handing these out.  Finding a German company that gives out a raise every three years?  If they are in a very competitive atmosphere......there might be a few companies that work like this......but the vast majority avoid such situations.

Bottom line?  Somewhere after the spring of 2017.....I expect another 50-cent rise on the German minimum wage.  And that cheapo 14-Euro haircut of mine will rise up to 16-Euro.....because of lesser customers (in theory).  Something isn't right here, but it's hard to say where logic starts and ends.

Interview Worth Watching

From Channel One (ARD) last night, there was an interesting anonymous interview done with a Muslim young guy who grew up in Germany.....who got all pepped up and went off to Syria for the ISIS-run war.  After a couple of weeks, he packed his bags and came back to Germany.  Disenchantment, reality and madness would be the words I'd use for his conviction to get the hell out of the situation and return back to his original state of Hessen here in Germany.

In the first minute or two of the interview.....he keys in on one special part of this whole experience.....false friends.  They pretended that they were his friend.....they encouraged to dig deeper into his religion (Islam).....and they made the whole experience seem like a fantasy in his life, waiting to come true.

In 1951, Eric Hoffer published True Believer.  It's a curious book about mass movements and how they operate.  You need a couple of themes....but one of the big requirements is united actions and sacrifice of the individual.  You need to appeal to a guy or gal.....that the movement won't move, unless they participate. Giving of one's self helps fulfill the movement's need and your personal need.
Mass movements tend to pick up the meek and less capable people....the ones who don't sit and ask questions or ponder upon the situation and the consequences.

I watched the interview and matched Hoffer's book up to the fine details of this young guy's sudden awaking.  Somewhere in the midst of this experience in northern Syria.....reality hit him like a ton of bricks.  He wasn't going anywhere to do something wonderful or heroic.....he was simply putting himself into a death spiral.....dying for something that he could not believe in.  So, he left.

There's a bigger story here, but I doubt if ARD is capable of really telling that story.  Young guy loses control over himself and his future.  Young guy wanders off for some magical mystery tour of life.  Young man awakens to find death and misery just days away.  Young man returns to reality and finds the bigger issues of life.  Young man survives.

So, if you have a curious nature over the interview....it's over on ARD's site.....under 'Monitor', the show that featured the episode.  Good interview and ought to be watched by every single German Muslim kid over the age of twelve.

A New Insurance?

There's a fair amount of skeptical view on the EU court system within Europe.  They get into various court episodes that might shock the average guy.

Yesterday, the EU Supreme Court handed down one of those shockers....if you own a riding lawnmower or mobility scooter....you need to have insurance.  No one said much about what this will involve, or the cost.  The court simply said that each nation must cook up and engineer some type of insurance law.

From the village where I live, there might be a dozen folks out of 1,500 houses in town with a riding lawnmower.  If you go around most German private homes.....they just don't have a big enough yard to warrant a riding mower.

As for the mobility scooter?  Well....ten years ago....I could go an entire day and never see anyone with such a vehicle.  Today, I'll probably see a dozen over an entire afternoon.

There's been a number of accidents.....mostly with the mobility scooters which got into the press and got pressed into court action.  Some guys will use their mobility scooter to travel from their house.....down a mile or so....to some local pub.  Naturally, there are consequences to this type of drinking and driving.

How much will this run?  No one is guessing.  There might be different rates between the mobility scooter and the lawn mower for all I know.

Austria and the No-Outside Influence Bill

An odd piece popped up from Austria today.  The Austrian parliament is discussing a new draft of a law.  The deal?  If you are Islamic and a cleric/scholar....your funding needs to be Austrian-generated.  Yeah, it'd basically cut off all foreign funds (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc).  The mosque, the utilities and heat for the facility, and the cost of supporting your cleric?  All would have to come from within Austria.

Naturally, this got folks a bit hyped up.

Somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 600,000 Muslims live in Austria (a total population of 8.4 million, so says Wiki).  

The slant on this deal is that Austria wants the scholars to have zero outside influence.  Added to the bill?  The cleric/scholar folks need to speak German.  This might be a curious thing to press across, and it'd likely force a fair number of the clerics to take additional language classes if they have to reach a certain level (I can only guess that it'd be mandated somewhere in the episode).

Passage of the bill?  There's a fair amount of enthusiasm for this, and I suspect it'll pass but meet up with some court challenge by various countries saying it's unfair.  As long as all religions are treated in the same way....it'll stand in any Austrian court.  

Even if it passes.....some charity could set up a foundation in some European country, and just transfer the money to a couple of guys in Austria and make it appear like some friendly donation on their part of 100,000 Euro to some local mosque or the cleric in charge.  Money-laundering?  Oh my, yes.....with jail consequences and sentences of a couple of years for behavior like this.

It's a curious twist on operational themes.  Nothing within any church in Europe runs off thin-air.  Everything costs money.  Heat, electricity, and cleric housing.....all amount to something.  As for fairness?  Well....as I generally dispense advice in life.....my motto is nothing in life is fair....so get used to it.    

A Little More on the FIFA Discussion

While I generally don't get all tangled up in soccer talks and discussions.....there's two other little aspects of this Qatar 2022 World Cup episode which came up.  Note....the shift in recent days is to a non-summer episode....meaning sometime in mid-to-late November of 2022....the World Cup will start.

A number of clubs around Europe (not just the Germans) have said if FIFA suspends the season in early November as they hint....for players to practice and get ready for the World Cup.....the clubs want compensation.  FIFA said that won't be discussed.

Once you hint that six to eight games might be cancelled out and each game might pull in 700,000 Euro in ticket and stadium profits (beer and food).....the clubs have a stake in the situation.  They won't stand there and allow FIFA to screw up their profits.

Added to this episode is that FIFA has also hinted that they don't want any games....even the 2nd or 3rd league to go on while the World Cup is progressing.  So, it's not just the national league of Germany affected.....but two other leagues as well.  If you go and figure out their profit situations and the need for income to be generated....this gets around to a legal issue where some EU court gets involved.

I sat and watched a ten-minute discussion last night from one of the German state-run networks over the whole thing.  You get the impression that FIFA is run by a bunch of idiots who don't know the operational costs of running a big-time club or even a secondary club in the 2nd or 3rd league.  You could be talking about two hundred million Euro loss over a five or six week period if they flip this schedule from the summer period to Nov/Dec.  Whatever these guys were thinking back in 2010.....they really weren't prepared for this type of mess.

Quran Guys in Wiesbaden

I've written twice in the last month over some Islamic enthusiasts being in the middle of the shopping zone of Wiesbaden (Mauritiusplatz) and attempting to hand out Qurans.  Well....another episode occurred on Monday afternoon (16:30) with the same crew.

Within a thirty-minute period....eight complaint calls were lodged with the city cops, and they sent a patrol up to view the situation.  It was....as reported.....a group with no permit, handing out Qurans.

Harassment is the work used by the folks calling in and sizing up the situation.  I won't be the judge of this....but if the Quran guys simply had a stand and quietly stood there.....they probably wouldn't be noticed.  So I have my doubts that they are quiet as they operate their stand.  Adding to this.....you have to have a permit for any type of information handout situation in Wiesbaden.  They avoided that entirely.

Cops noted that they'd explained the entire issue in full detail to two of the group previously.....so they obviously understood the local rules.

The odd thing as this was reported in the regional press?  Cops put out their phone number in the article.  If you see suspicious behavior......you call that number.

Spring has yet to arrive and I suspect spring of 2015 will be an open season with free Qurans on the Wiesbaden streets.  As of yet, no one has asked what changed in the past year in Wiesbaden to produce guys with lots of free time and enthusiasm for this of situation.  I'm not buying into the idea that it just accidentally started....someone arrived with some type of agenda.

Talking About Mein Kampf (2016)

When Hitler's book, Mein Kampf, was published in 1925.....no one could really predict the success or failure of the book.  It was a politically-charged "thesis" in some ways.....but it laid out the basic promises of Nationalist Socialism.

I attempted to read it back in the mid-80s, getting maybe twenty pages into it and finding it to be a fairly 'dry' book.  If you take both volume one and two (number two was published a year later).....it's a 720-page situation.

Few people realize it.....but Hitler made a fair amount of profit from the two volumes and generally avoided paying taxes off the profits.

I read through a historian discussion around two decades ago....having come to Germany to interview older Germans in the 1980s who were around in the 1920s/1930s.  A number of them admitted that they came to own the set of books, which sat on a living room table in full view of guests or on their office desk.  From that group, the vast number admitted that they'd never read the book or barely gotten a few pages into it.  It was a status symbol of sorts, at the time.

I bring this topic of Mein Kampf up because the court effort to keep it on the forbidden list in Germany for publication is coming to an end.  The state of Bavaria, who holds the copyright, kept the book from being published in Germany.  If you wanted a US copy or Chinese copy.....it was always possible.  But in Germany....it was considered 'voo-doo' and figured to be the most dangerous document in existence.  The legal standing for Bavaria's ownership ends in December.

What will appear in early 2016 is an odd publication.  Mein Kampf will be produced not as the 720-page document, but a 2,000-page book.  Various Geman historians and journalists will inject their criticism of Nationalist Socialism within the text of the document.  For every page that Hitler generated.....they will produce two pages in denouncing the political slant.

Now, I don't profess to be an expert on Germany or Nationalist Socialism.....but it's going to be curious how you denounce various bits of socialism while being a socialist state today.  To a certain extent, one of the big dislikes within the Hitler 'dream' was open-market capitalism.  Capitalism exists within Germany today.....although it's heavily regulated and always under threat of more regulation.

What will the 2,000-page document cost?  Unknown.  There's a suggestion that it'll be digital-only but I have my doubts.

Who will read the entire 2,000-page document?  No one.  I'm willing to say without any hesitation that less than a hundred Germans will ever read the entire document.  These will be mostly intellectural-geeks and public forum chat enthusiasts.

The ability to read only the 720-pages of the original document?  They apparently will weave the 1,380-odd pages into the Hitler's entire document and you will find it difficult to skip and only read the 720-pages.

The prediction I will make is that within a year.....someone will take the 2,000 pages of Mein Kampf, and add another 500 pages of their own criticism of the 2016 newly defined criticism of Hitler's 1925 book. Criticism of criticism?  Yeah.  It's the German way.....if you ask me.

This FIFA Cup Discussion

If you stopped in a German pub tonight, and sat to listen to the various topics of conversation between German guys.....it's pretty much zeroed onto the FIFA 2022 Cup in Qatar and what got said this morning.

I realize most Americans are not into the FIFA or soccer discussions but it gets around to an interesting conversation.

FIFA is the governing organization in the world over soccer.  They make decisions and everyone abides by them.  Every four years, there's a major competition and it's regarded as a big deal.  For decades.....they've had the cup in various European, South American, and Asian countries.....along with the US.  They've held the cup in Africa on one occasion, and after major discussions.....they awarded Qatar the first cup in the Middle East.....for 2022 (decision made in 2010).

At the time of the talks.....Qatar noted how the normal schedule could be accepted (July of each year held), in the midst of a hot atmosphere.  They would build stadiums which could handle the temperatures.  People believed the science and technology involved.  Qatar got the competition and started the construction projects.

Frankly, no one believes the cooling technology gimmick.  They've been suggesting for months that it just won't work.  And they've all speculated that this was going to be moved around to November or December of 2022 instead.   That.....got various folks upset within Europe.  Their club and seasons are tied together.....with cash draws and spectators as part of the whole season gimmick that works.  Shutting down the season in late October.....getting some players off to practice, then meet three weeks later for a one-month competition.....wasn't going to work.

Well....FIFA had folks meet and talk over this.  The word from this morning is simple....the experts agree....the summer World Cup won't work.  It needs to be November.  Hostility and anger runs across every single line.  Even Fox Sports Network is a bit negative because it won't fit into the schedule unless they work around American football and what is already scheduled out (they assume football fans might watch soccer, which I tend to disagree with).

One suggestion on the table by this FIFA committee is the idea of running the World Cup all the way up to 23 December.  You can imagine this.....fans and players all sitting in Qatar and trying like heck to fly out of Qatar on remaining flights on 24 December.....getting back home in time for Christmas. You'd probably have to have 200 aircraft sitting there and prepared to start leaving within an hour or two the championship game ends.

The general prospective now is that FIFA screwed up.  It's too hot for summer games and switching to the winter schedule screws up everyone's profit strategy.

As for the booze question, which Germans typically bring up....the Qatar folks already note that a special permit will be established to allow booze into various places during the game period (four weeks).  The hint most of the time is that hotels and zones around the stadiums will be given some alcohol rights.

A final decision?  I suspect that people will talk about this for the next three years and do little to nothing over the schedules.  There's no need to rush.  But it'll end up being something that German soccer fans will discuss weekly and how anyone could play in 120-degree temperatures.

Germans and This Topic of Revolution

The Tagesspiegel of Berlin (a daily newspaper) carried an interesting piece today.  The Free University of Berlin went out and did a research project.....polling people.

They surveyed 1,400 Germans.  They won't say age, or education, or location on the 1,400.  What they say is that it was a political type polling.  The results?  Twenty percent of the group polled says that socialism is a wonderful thing....except it's poorly executed, and revolution might be necessary to solve the problems of the public.

Adding to this.....thirty percent of the folks responded that socialism would be better without capitalism.  Oddly, no one says what the replacement device is, or how they'd just drop capitalism.

It's an odd poll.  For any journalist using the data and numbers.....it begs more questions.

As an American walking around the German system, and viewing German society.....I'm left with some general views.  German intellectualism is one of those things that cling to public forums, news reporters, and political chat situations.

If you sit and observe things....there's always talk about the evils of capitalism.  I often wait to hear the replacement scheme.....but it's generally blame and disenchantment.....never about gutting capitalism.  The general talk leads onto regulation....how you need to fix this with  various rules.   An hour later on some news report.....some journalist or political figure is talking about the stupidity of having sixteen pages to get permission to do something, or how some small business guy is getting screwed over by massive governmental regulations.

This idea about revolution being necessary?  It's a curious thing.  I often drag history into situations because you often learn what worked and what failed from past history.  When you had people under terrible conditions.....revolution that occurred and delivered freedom to vote and an open market system....were the only occasions where revolution did work.  A revolution to destroy open market situations and simply bring better living conditions for everyone?  There are no such revolutions that you can cite....from the past two thousand years.

I will dare anyone to scan through the history journals.  Since 2470 BC, with the Set Rebellion/Revolution in Egypt....no one ever got better living conditions by revolution and disabling open markets/capitalism.

All of this brings me to the real chat part of this Berlin survey.....a bunch of people have sat through college seminars and been fed a good bit of political chat over bad capitalism.  They believe it and it influences them to some extent....enough to suggest revolution as a viable option.

Politics in Germany

For months, I've been watching this Sebastian Edathy episode unfold.  He's a SPD political player here in Germany....who probably rated somewhere between number twenty and number forty on the national party list.  He was a guy who was climbing and in his mid-forties.....he might have eventually climbed into the top ten.

Around February of last year (2014), he suddenly resigned from the party.  It took a couple of days for folks to suddenly realize that he was under some type of investigation over child-sex photos.

For almost a year, plus four or five months into 2013....the authorities were into this mess, but so far, no court episode has occurred.  Yeah, it's an odd thing.

Over the past six months, there's been a major investigation into who all knew of the investigation and talked quietly among themselves.  The count so far.....fifty-seven investigators, cops and political folks knew of the events unfolding....before they ever exercised a search warrant.  The investigation period?  15 October 2013.  The search warrant finally executed?  13 February 2014.  Did any of the fifty-seven pass inside information onto Edathy?  No one will say in public and the journalists are careful not to suggest that.

In some ways, you get the impression that it's now turned into a marginal case in a German court.  What they would have found on that search warrant on 13 February 2014.....probably had already been 'cleansed'.  Even the laptop that folks talk about....Edathy claims he lost it on a train.  They will work up some deal to just clear the books and get this guy into some type of sentence.

German Bridge Woes Continue

Ever since the accident around the local Wiesbaden-Mainz autobahn bridge.....strategy episodes now occur daily with thousands of people as they discuss the limited ways of getting across the Rhine River.  I'm now stuck into this because the wife now works on the Mainz side of the river.....so my planning talents are put to maximum use.

Basically, an entire region is divided by one river, and there's only one autobahn bridge, one city four-lane bridge, one rail network, and three minor ferries to get 250,000 from one side to the other.  The loss of the 2nd autobahn bridge is serious now, and will not be fixed until late March (earliest).

So, you start to prioritize.  You need a direct route.  You need to pick a route with the fewest number of commuters are using.  You need to avoid bottle-necks.  You want to avoid the routes with significant numbers of stop-lights.  Toss one-lane roads.....construction zones.....and areas thick with bicyclists.

What was a simple forty-minute drive with the bridge in full operation.....is now a seventy-minute drive as a minimum.....and could take up to one-hundred-twenty minutes.

The railway?  Up until last week, it was the one bold answer to the whole problem.  The rail union (GDL) has gotten into a strike mode and promises this week or next to run a 100-hour strike.  The hundred-thousand people who typically use the rail.....were already crowded with their new users....but this simply puts another fifty to hundred thousand cars into the whole mess.

It'd be great to go and drive up within a mile of the remaining and operational bridges and just ride a bike across.....but there's no parking for some wild and crazy idea like that.

Yeah, hours and hours wasted by people.....trying to exercise this mess to a point where you could get the precious hour a day back from this mess.

Things That Make No Sense

Over the past month, I've come across two episodes revolving around Islam, the ISIS folks, and reality....which makes a person ponder.

This week, we had three teenage girls out of a London Academy....two age fifteen and one age sixteen....who walked off one morning.....got to the airport and flew out to Turkey.  They apparently are on the way to Syria and some new life as a jihad member.

Back in December.....a friend of theirs (same age) left quietly without saying anything to her parents, for the same sort of 'adventure'.  There was apparent communications via social media going on between this girl and the three.

The parents of the three girls?  Fairly upset and trying desperately to get the Turks to look for the girls before they cross the border.  It's been five days and I'm pretty sure it's too late.

What makes a couple of teenage girls desire to be part of some big jihad adventure?  That's a good question.  I agree.....school is boring and most every fifteen year-old kid is looking for something of a twist in life....tattoos, piercings, weird music, etc.  But the idea of a new life in the Syrian civil war and some young wife of a jihad guy?  What kind of life is that?

The odd feature of this adventure?  No one at the airport ever asks questions.  A fifteen year old gal?  Traveling with another fifteen year old gal?  They run through passport control.  And the money for airline trip?  The cost of this would have to be at least 184 Euro for a roundtrip trip to Istanbul.  How did they pay for it?  Cash?  Credit Card?  That part of the story is missing.

The second episode that comes up revolves around the Paris shootings and this guy.....Amedy Coulibaly.  He was the participant of the second round of shootings at the grocery in town.

Coulibaly had a long-time girlfriend.....Hayat Boumeddiene, a convert to Islam.  When you sit and look at the time-line of events....Coulibaly made his decision for the jihadist adventure in Paris back around Christmas.  For whatever reasons....the boyfriend decided she needed to be out of France....safely in ISIS territory.

So, Coulibaly rents a car and drives across France (from Paris) to Spain (into Madrid).  From Madrid, she would fly out to Turkey....cross the border and be 'safe'.

I've looked at this planned drive.  You could have flown down....rode a bus....or taken a train.  It would be simple and less time consuming.  By car?  It's a minimum of twelve hours, and if you figure in gas stops and rest...closer to fifteen hours.  He spread this out over two days by the scenario that the authorities have put out.

So, imagine this couple sitting in a cramped car for two entire days....Coulibalby likely driving....his girlfriend sitting there.  She knows the plan....she know the suicide side of this.....she knows he's got days left to live.  Two days of sitting next to a guy in such a tight compartment and just driving around the open plain of France, toward the mountains.....crossing them and eventually ending up at the Madrid airport.

Coulibalby drops his gal off....rests, and then drives back to Paris (another fifteen hour drive).....alone.  He turns the rental car back in and gets down to the final days of his planned event at the grocery.

Two people in a state of misery and hyped up on something.  One will be dead within a number of days, and the other will spend out the remainder of her life in Syria.  The charity operations with funds....will take care of Hayat.  She will live in somewhat comfort until the day comes when someone works on her mental side to do something of a jihad.  She's dulled the pain of her guy being gone and likely has little left in the bag of life.

Two days between Paris and Madrid.....1,274 kilometers....at least six construction zones which means your speed slows down drastically.  The talk between the two?  What do you say to a suicidal guy?  There's no comfort or wisdom that you can offer.  The car is likely quiet.

I look over this Paris to Madrid drive and the three London teens who jumped a flight to Turkey for a new life of jihad.  Things don't make sense.  No one asks questions.  People have dulled their mind to some extent and just focus on some end-point.....which is simply a goal without much value.  There is no rhyme or reason....just a conviction in something and that it must be right.  At no point does anyone ask questions....acceptance is the only possible outcome.  In essence.....things make no sense but full-speed ahead.

The three teens and Hayat sit in Syria presently.  Who knows.....they might come to meet up one day and discuss the twists and turns of their lives.

Crime and Punishment

On occasions, I....as an American....will notice some things that aren't front-page news in Germany.

This morning, our regional news here in Hessen got around to court action from Friday over a guy who murdered his pregnant wife.  He initially hit her with a hammer, and at the end....strangled her.

The sentence for killing his wife?  Twelve years.  Yeah....just twelve years.

The story has a twist or two.  The husband found out around the 7th month of pregnancy that the kid wasn't his.  While he confessed to the murder....he also said it wasn't his intention to kill her.  In some ways.....he was just mad and on a bit of rage.

An American would look at this and just shake his head.  The guy is forty-one years old, and if you count in 'good-time'....he'll likely be out within ten years.

I would say at least ten times a year....I'll come across such stories in Germany.  Violent assault, murder, robbery with a weapon....and the sentence isn't what you'd expect.  With the current view of things.....I think a German could actually kill several folks and likely never get more than twenty years in prison.  Of course, there's also the German law where they can do a personal evaluation over a guy for a violent act and toward the end of the prison sentence....just make a decision by a judge to hold the guy forever because of his violent nature (without any use of the original act).

The odds that this guy might get a 'forever-add-on'?  Better than fifty percent.  This simply puts him into a prison and allows people to later clean up the mess by a permanent evaluation situation.

The Deso Dogg Story

If you wrote the script to this actual story, a dozen studios would want it immediately for a movie script.  It is, for all purposes, unbelievable.

Here in Germany, we had this rap star.  To be honest....Deso Dogg wasn't much of a star.  He produced three albums but the last was in 2009, and his potential career kinda evolved into nothing as he converted over to the Muslim religion.

Denis Cuspert, Deso Dogg's real name, grew up in West Berlin....the kid from a German mother and a Ghanaian father.  The Ghanaian didn't stay around too long, and dad #2 was a US Army officer from the 1980s.  From what German journalists say.....Denis just didn't take dad #2 very well.  Adding to the issues....continued conflict within the community itself.  Denis ended up spending time in the local juvenile center.  There's not much of a positive note to say about Denis.....he was going to end up living a troubled life.

Somewhere in 1995, with the wall down and things starting to happen in Berlin.....he got into rap.  The crime side of his life?  It continued on.

Seven years would pass, and Denis seemed to be hooking up with the right associates for building a career in rap, and a career in crime.

He signed a minor record deal and became a published artist.  He also got noted for his crime accomplishments and actually spent some hard time in prison (not city jail).

What is generally said around the 2005-era.....Denis was physiologically screwed up.  He needed serious treatment.  He noted this in various conversations....but there's no evidence that he ever found the "solution".

Somewhere around 2009, with his rap career dissolving....Denis bumped into Islam. There's talk of a serious car accident where he survived and interpreted the event as a life-changing episode.  A year or so later.....he converts to Islam.  It's roughly eighteen months into this new lifestyle that he gets picked up with weapons (a big no-no in Germany).

At some point around 2012 to 2013....he does a video on his new focus in life....jihad.  He's off in Syria and part of some war effort.

The German authorities are a bit disturbed over the recruitment-like videos being done by Denis and he's put on bad-boy list by the German government.

Denis had one interesting characteristic.....he was a womanizer.  He played a role as a playboy and manly-kind-of-guy.  Women came into Denis's life, and they were eventually 'dumped' (the best word for them).

For some oddball reason, this got noted by the CIA.  Somewhere in the mix of things....they had this gal who was prepared for an odd job.  They wanted her to flirt with Denis (Deso Dogg), and entice him.  Denis seemed to fall for this gimmick.  At some point in 2013.....it appears (there's not a lot of history over this)....Denis ended up in some marriage to this new and wonderful Islamic woman.  She was part of his Syrian entourage.  She quietly sat in on meetings.....knew people....and knew the whole system.  And she reported back to the CIA.

At some point in the last month....the ISIS crowd started to stumble across indicators of a spy among them.  The CIA gave their gal notice, and she quietly sneaked across the border into Turkey.  She was picked up....asked for the US authorities, and was quietly put on a plane back to the US.  What you guess here....is that she's busy debriefing them.

Meanwhile, you might wonder.....what's with Denis or Deso Dogg?  Well....nothing much.  No one says anything.

A normal person would sit and ask.....what would ISIS do with a guy like Denis.....who kept a wife in their midst who was a spy?  As much value as Denis might have.....the odds are....someone will quietly appear one morning and drag Denis off to a one-hour Q and A session.  Afterwards....he'd be executed.

But this would bring up the next problem.....who else might be a spy?  So you might see a trend for a few months....killing various women because of suspected spy status.  At some point, because of a mostly men-type group.....some frustrations would start to erupt.

A great movie?  Yeah....but here's the odd thing.  Other than small article on the front page of Bild in Germany.....there's been almost no talk at all about Denis (Deso Dogg) or his CIA wife.  If you asked a thousand Germans.....I doubt that more than a dozen caught this little article in Bild.

It's a story worth telling.  Loser kid....crime career....rap star in Berlin....screwed up mentally....locks onto Islam.....goes radical....meets CIA fake gal.....marries CIA fake gal....lets CIA fake gal into the middle of ISIS meetings....loses CIA fake gal.

Germany on the International Stage

To read the German position on both Greece and the Ukraine....it takes a fair amount of reading but it's a pretty simple story.

On Greece.....as of last night, Greece has sent in a request for a six-month extension....basically saying they will "comply"....then listed a few things which fall into their agreement of the situation.  For Germany, it's insubstantial and considered a very limited agreement.

It's fairly easy to read through the Greek position.....they want six months because they simply don't have enough planning put into bringing the Drachma back.  This new leadership has had at best....three weeks to beg some type of extension from the EU.  They don't have the funding to survive this six months of efforts to get out of the Euro.....it's that simple.  Germany knows this.  Whether the EU just votes on this to appease Greece and screw the Germans....is unknown, but I'd lean more toward this scenario.

On the Ukraine?  Well....the peace treaty is crap.  It never really started and the Ukrainians have to be asking what Germany will do.....to prevent the US plan of defensive weapons from coming in.  The Germans?  They are stuck.  They can't put down any more trump cards on Russia, and they've gone to the maximum on the Russian economic boycott.  There's nothing left in the magic bag of tricks.

My general prediction is that civil war is about to go up a notch.....ten thousand Ukrainians are going to arrive by early April in Germany to claim asylum or refugee status.  I think the Poles and Czechs will will them travel through and help them reach Germany.  By mid-summer, I might even predict thirty-thousand Ukrainians in Germany, with the number growing to 60,000 by the end of 2015.

In some ways, the Germans asked for this.....but the typical German has no grasp of the trade deal that the EU created and started this mess with.....nor do the political chat folks on German TV really sit down to analyze this completely.  At some point, the anti-US slant will come up, and you just grin because they have no idea how to explain this to the public.....except that the evil America is behind it.

Talking Apple Wine

Folks around Hessen (my local German state) tend to take apple wine serious.  Folks here.....drink more apple wine, than beer.

This week, there's been serious acquisitions made over the three major apple wine producers.

First, some science folks took samples and noted that there's too much sugar now in apple wine sold.  In some cases, the label didn't say sugar was included in the product....when it was definitely there.

Second, there's a term on most of these product labels.....suggesting these are Hessen apples used to make the product.  What they don't say....is the percentage.  The investigation folks found in some cases....it was only ten-percent.  To claim some status as a state product, which is a big deal around here.....it's supposed to be near fifty-percent of those state apples used for the product.

All of this has apparently been forwarded to the Hessen state prosecutor and folks are talking about some court action against the main producers of apple wine.

An agenda?  Well....you've got two agendas at work here.

One agenda is about sugar usage and the nutritional experts aren't just lining up to fight the wine guys.....but just about everyone they can touch.  I've seen at least twenty nutritional news bits over the past year from within Hessen over sugar usage.  They bring in doctors and health foundations....talking anti-sugar themes.

It wouldn't surprise me if we have some attempt to legally limit sugary-type drinks to underage kids (say twelve years old) within the next five years here in Hessen.

The other agenda is the cheaper apples versus the more expensive apples.  Folks get all peppy about apples grown in Hessen and think they are five-star apples.....so they ought to cost more.  If you go down into Croatia or Czech.....you tend to find high quality apples for a lesser price.  So the market guys.....the apple wine producers realized the savings of money.

I'm not sure how much control will be exercised by the government, or if the apple wine producers might go for a domestic produce rather than a regional product.....figuring cost is a bigger deal than a label.

An odd thing to argue about and drag into court?  Well....yeah.  Germans sit around and analyze things like this, and then want to correct what they think is wrong.  Around thirty years ago, some Germans went and analyzed regular wine....then realized that various acids were being added to wine production to get a certain taste, and they weren't listed on the label. This got to be page one news for a month or so, as folks got disturbed over additives.

Bottom line?  Someone is out there to protect you over apple wine.....whether you drink it or not.

Grasping this 'Good' and 'Bad' Argument

As some of you know, I have a fascination with history.  I've tried to understand this 'good Muslim' versus 'bad Muslim' gimmick that has been used to a great extent.  To me, it makes no sense.  However, I came the other day to this odd historical piece that occurred around a hundred years after Muhammad had passed on.

Umar II, had been called up and ended being a fairly high authority within the Muslim world and Arabia around 717 AD.  It should be noted that he was generally liked by the two massive divisions of the Muslim world at the time.....but that didn't help him much....as a much smaller group would eventually assassinate him around 720 AD, so he ends up with a three-year reign.

Umar II had come to recognize Dhimmis (the non-believers in the world) as being necessary.  So as various Dhimmis groups were determined and worked upon (instead of killing them).....a treaty was written.  By staying within that treaty....a Dhimmis, his tribe, and culture....could survive on....thus avoiding death.

The original treaty?  Well.....a copy exists.  It's a simple text arrangement.

The treaty says:

We shall not build, in our cities or in surrounding neighborhoods new monasteries, churches, convents, or monk's cells, now shall we repair, by day or night, such of those that lay in ruins or near the quarters of Muslims.
We shall keep our gates wide open for passerby and travelers.  We shall give board and lodging to all Muslims who pass our way for three days (free food and board).
We shall not give shelter in our churches or in our dwellings to any spy nor hide him from the Muslims.
We shall not manifest our religion publicly nor convert anyone to it.  We shall not prevent any of our kin from entering Islam if they wish it.
We shall show respect toward the Muslims and we shall rise from our seats when they wish to sit.
We shall not seek to resemble the Muslims by imitating any of their garments.
We shall not mount on saddles nor shall we gird swords nor bear any kind of arms nor carry them on our persons.
We shall  not engrave Arabic inscriptions on our seals.
We shall not sell fermented drinks. (meaning beer and wine)
We shall clip the fronts of our heads. (as a sign of humiliation)
We shall always dress in the same way wherever we may be and we shall bind the zunar round our waists.
We shall not display our crosses or books in the roads or markets of the Muslims.  We shall only use clappers in our churches very softly.  We shall not raise our voices when following our dead.  We shall not take slaves who have been allotted to Muslims.
We shall not build houses higher than the houses of the Muslims.
Whoever strikes a Muslim with deliberate intent shall forfeit the protection of this pact.

From Al-Turushi, Siraj Al-Muluk, pages 229-230.

So, you sit and pause over this.  Imagine yourself as a young member of some tribe who are now identified as Dhimmis.....living freely and surviving.....but mostly as a second-class citizen.  Maybe you had some religion other than Islam to start with......but it likely only took a generation or two, for folks to wise-up and simply join the Muslim religion as a fake-member.

Years would pass.....you'd have a family now.....totally integrated into Muslim society (formerly a Dhimmis or non-believer).  What you figured out.....better to be a lite-member or just act like a Muslim, than be treated as a second-class citizen. You walked through the steps.....did your best to act like Muslim but frankly.....your father and those before him just weren't that enthusiastic about the whole thing.  Eventually, you'd see this one opportunity to leave this unsettling neighborhood or nation, and find yourself in a neutral style of life...such as we have in Europe today.

The good-Muslim versus bad-Muslim episode?  I've come to some feeling that we have an awful lot of people who over 1,400 years have become less enthusiastic about this whole thing.  Your ancestors aren't around to go through the logic but some guy from centuries ago made a decision to save the family from future humiliation.  It made sense.

From these fourteen odd 'promises'......they all lead onto a miserable society that lives only because of their submission to the treaty.  Otherwise, they'd be murdered.  No one today can say with any authority how many entered the promise.....how many gave up their old religion eventually.....and how many today simply walk through the actions to make people happy.  In essence, you do what you have to do.....to survive.

Oddly, we are today stuck with something that evolved out of the 770 AD period....not being able to reform or fix what has been done.

Parades and Fights

This is the fest season, with almost every town of significance having some type of parade.  Naturally, there's alcohol consumed.  And if you have enough alcohol.....you have misunderstandings.

What the cops say over the weekend of Wiesbaden.....is that a number of fights (at least thirty) occurred around the parade area of downtown.

Some folks were injured during the fighting, and required medical services.  As far as the local news reports.....no one got killed during the fights....just injured.

According to the authorities....there would have been a much higher number of injuries and assaults....if cops hadn't walked into a situation and calmed folks down, or separated folks before punches were exchanged.

For an American observing the situation....it's safe to say that fests draw people, and intensify consumption of alcohol.  It's hard to say that a couple of German guys would meet up.....drink a lot of booze and fight among themselves.  That's typically not the 'game'.  It's usually where you bump into one guy, cause some gal to spill her drink, or simple look the wrong way at some poor slob who thinks you winked at him in a suspicious way.

Once folks start drinking excessively.......they rarely stop until they've run out of money, or their friend runs out of money.  That's usually the quitting point where everyone tries to remember their way home and just call it a day.

If you were asking me if it's dangerous for an American to hang around such a German fest or parade.....I'd tell you no.  You might have 100,000 folks hanging around downtown, and maybe 2,000 are drinking heavily.....with forty drunks near some level of starting a fight.  If you do the statistics....you could spend hours downtown, and never bump into any of the forty aggressive folks.

Bottom line?  Enjoy the German parades, and just make sure you buy another drink for a guy if you cause him to spill his......and he'll be your best friend....at least until he drops that second drink.

Germany and Plagiarism Woes

Over the past decade, there's been this game played out between the SPD Party and the CDU/CSU Party of Germany.

It revolves around plagiarism and college degrees.  It's hard to say who started it but it's gone back and forth.  Some unknown source will confront a university....citing some information that a master's degree or PhD degree given to such-and-such student from a decade or two decades ago....had plagiarism issues.

Serious charges of course.  So they convene a committee, investigate, and render a verdict.  So far, only one guy (an SPD guy) has survived this accusation.  The rest have all lost their degrees.  With the loss of the degree....their position and job within the government goes up in smoke.

This week, it was a Hessen guy.  Wolfgang Dippel, Social System Secretary.

He wrote up a dissertation in 1995 at the University of Kassel.  From what they say....it was about local policy regarding the community of Kassel.

A decade after getting the PhD degree, he was mayor of Fulda (2004 to 2014).

From what Dippel says....it was roughly a 200-page document, and they found two or three areas that he didn't cite the source.  He says (I must note that the University has said little to nothing) that fifteen professors read the piece and found no problem in 1995.

Where did this compliant come from?  Anonymous.  Yeah, the university won't say.

What will happen now?  I would imagine a committee within the CDU will go to work....find five or six SPD folks with degrees, and get to work on their plagiarism issues.  Maybe they even have people already selected and ready to go. Tit for tat.....over and over.

All of this simply puts more pressure on the university system in Germany.  At some point, someone is going to sue the university and force the anonymous folks to be pointed out.

As for the plagiarism issue?  If you go back three hundred years.....you had a verbal assessment, with questions and answers by the instructors of the  institution.  If you answered enough to show your competence, you went on.  Instructors over the past hundred years got lazy and preferred this method of writing out your project and assessing your writing skills as being more important than the knowledge itself.

Eventually, we will get down to the point where most German political folks are truck drivers or beauty-parlor enthusiasts.

This EU-Greece Mess

Over the past month, with this Greek mess....it's been like an entire season of "Dallas"....taking various twists and turns over the failing economy.

Via the German news (Channel One, ARD) last night, what you basically got was a ultimatum moment.  The EU folks put the final deal on the table for some extended bailout.....but it means that austerity actions continue.....something that Greece just wasn't going to accept.  With the recent election....the party in charge basically vowed prior to the election to end austerity and go onto "something else".  It's not been clear what these non-austerity conditions would be or how they would stage some recovery over the banking sector.

Presently, it looks like some type of meeting might occur on Friday where further talks would occur, but it looks more and more like Greece has finally hit a closed door and won't get any more extensions.  Basically.....they are bankrupt.

I sat and watched an interview with a British banker last week who says the general stock market in Europe would take a fair hit for a couple of days (maybe a ten-percent loss) if Greek took the final step and issued Drachma (their old currency).

The basic deal that the EU is offering....is merely an extension  of continued austerity and six months to figure out a better way of fixing the mess.  The present party in charge (less than three weeks) has really not had time to think of a better plan.....at least that's what most journalists believe.

Pressure on the Germans?  When they did the bridge-loan two years ago and prescribed massive austerity....it was not taken well by the Greeks.  There's still WW II issues between the two countries and the Greeks aren't taking the advice of austerity in a happy fashion.  The national unemployment rate in Greece for December 2014.....was 25.9-percent.  A fair number of young Greeks....those with education and training....have left the country and given up.  Those young Greeks may never return to Greece, which means an entire generation of society has vacated the society.

Bottom line?  This potential meeting on Friday might get pushed back to the middle of next week, while Greece works on some last-second proposal.  But I don't think there's anything left to play out.....the Drachma is coming....one way or another.

The Cancelled Parade

Over the last couple of days....Germany has transformed itself into a parade capital.  Various communities and cities have planned out for an entire year.....a parade.  In some towns, you will find dozens of people who meet monthly....get into the various details of the parade....plan the vision of the 'float'....agree to disagree on things.....and bring this all together to a major event.  In less than a month....most communities will start back up for the 2016 parade schedule and start the next planning stage.

Yesterday.....a slight change came to the parade business.  Up in Braunschweig (a town east of Hanover, Germany)....a town of 250,000 residents....the parade was cancelled.

What the cops will say is that a credible threat existed.....thus giving them a reason to cancel the parade.   They used the term 'Islamic threat' and just left the rest for your imagination.

The cancellation occurred approximately 90 minutes prior to the parade.  I would take a guess that 100,000 people were already at the starting point, or in the process of getting parked when the cancellation occurred.  Some journalists say the typical parade in Braunschweig  has around 200,000 participants and bystanders.

Hostility?  Yeah.  From the brief man-on-the-street type interviews....it was viewed as a frustrating cancellation.

Basically, some radical extremists forced Germans to cancel something that hadn't been cancelled since World War II.  Poor weather might limit the parade, but it wasn't ever cancelled.

So, this brings to this observation of reality now in Germany.  When you can't "BE" a German or behave as a German, or carry out German traditions.....what are you then?  At some point in the near future.....some Germans are going to sit there at a pub, or at some cafe, and ask some questions about what is going on here.  The questions will lead to a reflection, and possibly some dramatic change in life.  Frankly.....I just can't see Germans accepting this threat lightly or just giving in to some threat.  They aren't that type of culture.

In an odd way, the cancellation of the Braunschweig parade might come to be a major event in 2015.

Making the Bridge Woes Worse

Here around the Wiesbaden area.....with the Schiersteiner Bridge out of order temporarily....there's not much you could say that would make things worse with traffic.  At least, I was thinking that.

This morning....the Bahn (railway) union came out because of testy negotiations and said that they are now leaning toward a 100-hour strike.  The ultimatum basically says if the talks don't result in any fruitful way by Wednesday of this week.....they will start to shut down the trains throughout all of Germany.  It's not clear about this starting on Thursday of this week, or possibly going into next week. All the union has said is that at least forty-eight of the hours will be over a normal work-week.

No one is talking much over how many more riders are using the rail episode to get to work around Mainz, Frankfurt, or Wiesbaden.  If I were taking an educated guess.....there's probably ten to twenty-percent more riders on the rail network than it was before the bridge being made out-of-order.

There's a fair amount of hostility brewing by the public over the various strikes that occurred in October and November of last year in Germany.  Journalists will typically say that it's more than fifty percent of the public who is anti-rail union now.

As for any quick repairs coming up for the Schiersteiner Bridge?  Zero chance that it'll happen this week, and you get various hints that it might take a month to fix it.

The 'Science' of German Construction

When you get ready to build a facility or building in Germany....you come up against two German terms.

The first is Baugesetzbuch.  This is the German federal book on building codes, which chiefly relate to property usage, property rights, safety related factors in construction, and general procedures of design.  This book of codes....is approved out of Berlin and pushed across all sixteen German states.

The second is Bauordnung, which loosely translates to state building codes. This will lay out safety codes in a more defined fashion, construction practices acceptable in that state, and general rules on stability/safety (perceived by the experts in that state).

Sounding like a problem in getting projects approved state by state?  Well, you could hire one national company to design a office building of a certain large size, and somewhere in the process find that they will end up partnering up with a local/regional design company who has the insight over the Bauordnung rules (that state's book).

Why no simplified national code and just dissolve the Bauordnung?

Well, this is a nation that was three-hundred separate entities until the early 1800s.  As much as one might say it's one single country today.....it's really a federated republic of sixteen German states, and each has particular rules and understandings.  They also have a compacted corruption factor where a certain party will control not only the construction codes but also controlling the construction permits.  Whether you like it or not.....you could easily be pushed into several 'extras' that weren't part of your original plan.

An example of this....if you build a large significant building and depending on what state you are located in....there's typically a requirement for some type of landscaping 'art-works' to be part of the final design of the building.  It's interpreted on what fits or what is accepted.  You could put up a bold statue or piece of art.....layer the landscape with flowers and water-ponds.....or build the art-works into the look of the building itself.  State-by-state.....it'd depend on what's in the Bauordnung and how the construction permit is written.

Bottom line....as much as people think that Germany operates under one single umbrella.....it's really a sixteen-umbrella theme, and depends much on where you are located.

The Big Deal of the Sunday Election in Hamburg

There are two things going on with this regional election today in Hamburg (15 Feb 2015).

First, there is a test of sorts for the AfD Party.....the newer of parties around.  They have the anti-immigration slant to things and it might be curious to see if they get five to ten percent of the vote (ARD News, a state-run network....projects a minimum of five percent).

Second, there's this odd change to regional law where the voting age is lowered from eighteen to sixteen.  It was an SPD agenda item and it's hard to say if it'll attract more voters or not.  What the numbers say is that roughly twenty-seven thousand new voters are within the Hamburg district.  No one is guessing on the number who will vote.  The logic here?  Two things....most are already apprentice workers and paying some form of taxation, so it makes sense to allow them into the vote business.  Second, at least by SPD feelings.....most would be attracted to the platform of the SPD Party.

So, tonight....starting around 6PM, projections will already be in place and give the likely outcome.....consuming hour after hour of thrilling regional voting out of Hamburg.  Yeah....they squeeze every drop out of a marginal political episode to make some news.

A New Asylum Game in Germany?

All throughout 2014, the news media in Germany talked about asylum, immigration and issues.  You'd hear political folks talk about the issues to some minor degree, then do nothing.  This all mostly had to do with various non-European individuals that appeared in Germany to claim some type of status.

Well....this week in Germany....suddenly there was change....oddly enough.

Because of the inflow of Kosovo refugees or asylum-seekers.....roughly 18,000 in the past ninety days....there was a decision finally to fix some issues, but only related to the Kosovo folks.  Yeah, it has a funny situation attached to it.

First, the German political folks wanted everyone to know that there is a listing of countries where things are considered 'SAFE'.  Kosovo, Serbia and Macedonia are considered 'SAFE'.  You can't walk into Germany and claim any asylum status with ninety-nine percent of the excuses that a guy would typically use.

Second, the German political folks have reshaped the approval process (shocking, I know....for all of 2014, rarely any upgrades to the system).  They now say that Kosovo folks will get a fourteen-day process.  Everyone else?  They rotate back a step or two....probably adding a month to three months to their own approval/disapproval process.

Third, more employees within the approval process.  Shocker?  Oh yeah.  For months and months.....as more folks arrived in Germany....no one wanted to increase the manpower at the immigration department.  Reasons?  No one would ever say in public or on any forum.  It was like manpower was a forbidden topic to bring up or discuss.

Hiring and building up a department?  This isn't exactly a skill-set that you'd throw onto an advertising campaign....find two hundred more employees over a month, and just incorporate them into the system.  Germany just doesn't function like that.

Once you categorize the skills required.....you can figure that it'll be hard to find more than a dozen folks who might fit into such a job.  So you end up with dozens of additional folks who really aren't that capable for the job....show the right skills....or have a four-star training program to bring them up to speed in six months.  This might be the reason why they were so against expanding the department because you just won't find the right people with the right skills.

What's all this add up to?

There's 18,000 Kosovo folks in Germany presently, and I'd take a humble guess that another 50,000 will show by late May.  Virtually every single one of them will fill out paperwork.....thinking it will take six months to get approval and just start hope that it'll all work out.  The shock will be in two weeks as they get called into an office....told they were disapproved and they need to be on a bus tomorrow morning which will take them back to Kosovo (note, the German tax-payer will be paying for their two weeks in the compound and the bus-trip back to Kosovo).

A logical guy would ask...what happens next?  Political turmoil and frustrations in Kosovo with a high unemployment rate (some news sources say the youth unemployment rate is near fifty percent). It invites civil conflict and eventually civil war.  Unless some Germans get smart....figure ways to integrate some business opportunities into the region and take advantage of cheaper wages....nothing is going to stop the approaching civil conflict.  Then, because it won't be 'SAFE'.....the Kosovo folks will arrive and find an open door.

I admit.....it's not the job of the German government to take every single asylum seeker, but when you look at the various groups coming into Germany and getting permission to stay....there's not much difference between them and the Kosovo crowd.  They both seeker an opportunity in life.

Bottom line?  Oddly, the Germans have finally reacted to immigration and asylum issues and triggered a change in the way business is done.  But only after the Kosovo crowd got into the 'game'.

Bridge Woes

This week (Tuesday night to be precise).....something happened around a major bridge in my local area....the Schiersteiner Bridge.

There are only three bridges to cross from Wiesbaden south....over the Rhine River.  Two are autobahn bridges with six lanes each....one is a city bridge with four lanes.  If you don't make it across those three bridges....your only alternate venue in any direction for thirty-odd miles would be three or four ferry operations of a minor nature (twenty cars max).

So, what occurred on Tuesday night was some type of 'bumping' action on a column of the Schiersteiner Bridge.  There's major work going on to build the new bridge (probably sixty feet at the most from the old bridge).  Somewhere under the current bridge....some moved something around and that bumped a column.....which got dislodged, and there's a fair-sized crack now in the concrete layer of the bridge itself.  From thirty feet away....you can see the crack.

The folks at the work site noticed all of this.....shut down the road....and triggered a 'mess'.  Dozens of experts have come in....done tests....and will conclude their analysis by the middle of this upcoming week.

What happened on Wednesday was kinda interesting because 100,000 cars generally have to move north or south each day on this one single bridge.  In the summer period, it might swing up to 150,000 in a single day.

The two other bridges were designed to handle the amount of traffic involved.  A thirty-minute ride now might take two hours minimum....maybe three hours.

On Thursday morning....near the city bridge on the Wiesbaden-side....some car got bumped and the owner got out.  There were some words, and then the guy whoomped (fist) the second guy through his car window.  The first guy got back into his car and drove off.   Folks are frustrated and angry.

Alternate solution?  Basically the only back-up plan is to maximize use of railway options.  The Bahn guys agreed to add more cars onto each train in Wiesbaden and Mainz, and folks have noticed a big upswing in folks using public transportation.  To be honest.....if you just had to cross the city bridge to get to work.....it'd be best to park the car, and walk over the bridge....thus avoiding a 45-minute delay built into just getting over the bridge.

How long will the 'broke' bridge be sitting there?  Folks aren't that hopeful.  The experts are hinting that it might take a month or two.  If they put a new column in....they'd have to let the concrete dry out completely, and that's a thirty-day job by itself.

Naturally, this all brings out the political angle to this.  Back in 2005....someone wrote up a major report and laid out that the old bridge was not capable of handling the load currently on it and needed replacement ASAP.  The current political parties in charge at the time.....SPD and Greens.....did mostly nothing....noting that the state governments weren't handing out enough money/funding to make this a high priority.  The CDU folks generally blame this group for the delay in building this new bridge.  Currently....at best....the new replacement bridge is slated to open in 2019 (some folks have their doubts already about the date).

Building a tunnel under the Rhine?  No.  They don't want it.  Building more bridges around the region?  Folks get all peppy about upsetting natural scenic views....so these three bridges are the exception and allowed.

All of this brings me to this historical view of the Allies rushing across France and Germany in 1944/1945.  Everything about the push to get to Berlin was geared toward bridges and crossing them.  Because of the large assortment of rivers around Germany.....bridges are a major segment of life.  If a bridge was taken out.....it meant you had to travel several hours onto the next location and hope it was still up.  In the seventy-odd years since the war....nothing much has changed.  Bridges in Germany are a fact of life.  

Bottom line?  A hundred thousand folks are trying to find various ways to stay friendly while adding a minimum of one hour onto their daily commute.  Some folks are pressed to the limit while adding three to four hours onto their commute, if you consider both coming and going.

A Minor Critique of Network News in Germany

I sat last night and watched the 8PM news of Germany on Channel One (ARD).  About half-way through the fifteen minute episode....they came to report on the three Islamic young folks who were shot in North Carolina from two days ago.

The lead-in of the piece quickly labeled this a hate-crime....hoping to lure the viewer to view the situation in a particular fashion.

Oddly....four sentences later....the ARD news guy notes that the whole thing arose over a parking dispute within the condo association.

A German viewing this would be confused.  Hate-crime?  Parking spot dispute instead?

This is one of those forty-odd problems with public-run network news in Germany.  You have to sit there....view what they give you....and then go and research the whole thing yourself because of the confusion left in your mind.  Or.....just accept the initial words....think hate-crime and guns, and you ID the US as a bad place.

How would a parking dispute get to this type of situation?  If you have a lousy condo association....no assigned parking spots....limited parking.....and argumentative people on both sides.....you end up with frustrating disputes which can get violent or confrontational at the least.

Hate-crime situation?  No.  But the news guy wanted to plant that thought in your head.

Public Transportation Story

The Frankfurter Allgemine (our regional 'big' newspaper) did up a fine article this morning on a trend.....more folks riding public transit in Germany.

The numbers?  Eleven billion occasions in 2014 occurred with a German riding public transit.  With eighty million residents.....it's a fairly big number.

For years, things had been somewhat stalled on daily users, so the change is positive.

What's helped?  One of the keys to the better numbers are the long-distance buses.  For decades.....the Bahn folks (railway) had a rule that only short-distance bus lines could exist within Germany.  You couldn't rig up a bus to start in Kaiserslautern and end in Berlin.  It was OK to operate a bus from Kaiserslautern to some town within twenty-odd kilometers.....but no long-distance locations.

Folks in the past decade started to challenge this strategy.  Eventually, bus companies got the law changed.  A guy could walk out of the Frankfurt Airport today.....find five or six bus companies running a long-distance deal (say to Hamburg or Munich) for twenty-five Euro and spend eight hours hitting three or four significant towns before arriving at the final destination.

Here in my local area....there are various tickets now available for the consumer....which cheapens the load slightly.  If you simply make the decision that you won't leave the house until after 9AM.....you can buy a bus/rail pass for the week at twenty-five percent discount.  You can carry a second person on your ticket for forty-percent more of the single ticket.   They've gotten aggressive and enticed people to travel via the public system.

Youth Protection Act?

There's a bill floating around the Bundestag here in Germany.....pushed by the SPD Party.  The wording basically says that all high-energy drinks with caffeine enhancements.....would be sold only to folks over the age of eighteen.  It has yet to pass and there's some speculation that it may not have CDU/CSU support.

Over the past year, the news media in Germany have pumped up various reports (both in newspapers and network news) of kids overdosing on high-energy drinks.  When you look at the caffeine content of several of these drinks.....with the amount of liquid involved, and the opportunity that some kids might consume more than just one in an afternoon....there's some potential risk.

The number of kids who've been sent off to a hospital because of consumption of such drinks?  No figures have been pushed out into the public discussion.....just a couple of examples of what some kids encountered.

The typical energy drink has roughly 80 milligrams of caffeine.  For an adult.....you could do around 300 milligrams a day of caffeine and be ok....beyond that, you start to have some effects.  If you look at the typical can, which has twenty ounces....a twelve-year old kid could get a fair dose of caffeine with one can.

Naturally, a guy could ask about Pepsi, Mountain Dew or Coke, and find that they would be a slight problem as well.  So, not to suggest that it'll happen.....but you might see a sequence here where they pass this bill and get the public into some acceptance....then turn around in four years and say that Pepsi or Coke are just as big of a threat to folks under the age of eighteen.....therefore....let's eliminate sales to them as well.

Germans often do the one-two-three step on regulation, so it wouldn't really surprise me where this goes in the future.

The Free-Quran Group in Wiesbaden, Episode II

A week ago, I wrote an essay on a Wiesbaden episode where some Muslim individuals had set up a booth/stand operation on the city shopping district area....handing out free copies of the Quran.  I noted that the city authorities had quickly reacted to this....saying that the actions of the free-book guys...made folks walking by feel harassed.  So, the city instructed the city-police to react and shut down the free-Quran guys.

Well....this past weekend....the free-Quraan guys returned, and the cops returned.  They were shut down again.  The free-Quran guys say by the actions of the authorities....it's harassment upon them.

All of this got to one of the city council members who noted that any stand or booth set up on the Wiesbaden shopping district (a pretty wide open area).....is the business of the city, and they won't tolerate just anyone setting up such a table.  You ask for permission.....either getting approved or denied.  It's the cities own business as to who operates on the streets of the city.

From what the local newspapers have said.....the Muslim guys intend to come back this next weekend to Wiesbaden.  And the city council noted that their police will be back to enforce the rules.

There are two prospectives to this.

First, I've come to note throughout last summer.....at least five occasions when Scientology set up a booth and had some free literature to hand out....noting that the bulk of what they offered....was simple reading material and was free.  If you wanted the seminar business....that was the magic line where you crossed over and started to pay real cash for and would lead onto more costly seminars.

Pests on the street?  No, the Scientology guys and gals stood back and let the stand attract people....questions would be asked, and answers provided.

Over a twenty-minute period that I sat there and sipped on a cool drink on a hot afternoon....I probably would note two people stopping and asking questions.....mostly women....between the ages of thirty and fifty.  Some took material and left.  Throughout the summer, I probably watched this unfold on five occasions or more.

Second, I think the gimmick of this Muslim group is simply to gather episodes of conflict with the city council, and eventually have some lawyer paid by an Islamic charity operation to confront the city council....dragging this into court.

By citing issues with some religious group presenting their material....free of charge.....unlike the dozens of other groups who present themselves on the city plaza area in the name of environmentalism, politics, anti-Merkel, anti-Ukraine, anti-Russia, pro-immigrant, anti-NSA, pro-nature, anti-windmill, and pro-Marxism.....the court will challenge the city to identify how one group gets permission to have a stand on the city streets, and another one is denied.

In essence.....they are using German Basic Law....to confront the Germans.  In the long run....the Wiesbaden city council will lose (maybe a year away....maybe four years away).

The city may be forced to adapt a rigid code of forcing all groups wanting a stand......to come to some remote part of the city park system.....where people rarely transit.  The hostility here, if you haven't figured out (I doubt that the Islamic guys have)......is that everyone will be negative about Islam then.....for causing all of them to get zero chance to present their "thing" to the people of Wiesbaden. The political folks, the Scientology crowd, the environmentalists, and the public forum groups will all have some fairly nasty comments over what caused them all to have a limited public access.

All of this brings me to this one topic....who exactly has arrived in Wiesbaden in the past year.....getting a small group of young men hyped up over religion and spending less time with normal priorities of life (soccer, family, extra hours in the family business, school requirements, etc).  Who has convinced these guys to make it some type of life mission to present a religious concept that the majority of Wiesbaden residents have no interest in or find negativity within?  Something in the dynamic of regular life in Wiesbaden has changed in the past year or so....so who is this guy?

Bottom line?  I expect some confrontation down in the Maurtiusplatz area of Wiesbaden this upcoming Saturday.  I'll take a guess that at least eight uniformed cops are there....between McDonalds and Starbucks.....just looking for trouble to arrive and confront them.  The pumped-up Islam guys?  I'll take a guess that they are there, and some guy or two are in the background to take video for some future court episode.  If they can incite the cops to use force....it'll just make the city and the police look less-convincing in court.  You can guess where this mess is heading onto.

Germany and More Immigration Issues

It's a curious little story that won't get much attention in the German press.

Every night in Pristina, Urosevac, and Gnjilane, Kosovo (a country of six million residents)....there are roughly ten buses that leave for France, Germany, Italy and Netherlands.  Every seat is full, and the folks on board....don't intend to just visit or tour Dusseldorf for a weekend.....they intend to stay in Germany.

What the Kosovo authorities will say is that it's now a noticeable thing....kids were in school last week....withdrawn from the class this week....and then disappear with the family.  Classes are smaller and everyone is starting to question the numbers.

News reporters tend to say that between 20,000 and 30,000 Kosovo residents are leaving.  No one in Germany is saying much over the numbers that come to Germany.  The best that folks can say is that this trend started in the spring of 2014 with increased numbers.  There were always a couple hundred folks leaving, but since the economy of Kosovo slowed down drastically.....everyone talks now of packing up and leaving.

The UN says (you can't be sure of the accuracy of this).....that unemployment in Kosovo is now roughly thirty-five percent.  Around one-third of the country lives in poverty.....by current statistics that Kosovo themselves provide.

All of this has lead to a German government "emergency".  What the Germans are saying currently is that they've decided to prioritize the asylum requests of Kosovo residents arriving in Germany to the very top....ahead of everyone else.  Their intention (as Deutsche Welle reports).....is to determine a status in ten days, and the bulk are going to be turned down (at least currently).

Oddly, by the Geneva Convention.....poverty is not listed as one of those reasons that you have to hand out an approved visa deal to anyone.  So, you'd have to claim unfairness, discrimination, or some war....just to get some type of approval to stay in Germany.

Some folks have done the math, and suggest that if 30,000 people a month are leaving Kosovo....then there's already 200,000 Kosovo residents from 2013....who are in some other European country.  And if you took the math and suggested a continuing trend of 30,000 a month for 2015....you might have near half-a-million residents gone, from a 2010 population of six million.

I sat down and did a twenty-minute read over Kosovo's economy.  It's not exactly robust, nor ever has had much of a growth period.  What they mostly sell today?  Leather products, some machinery and appliances, tobacco, vegetables and fruits, textile products, and processed metal items.  For 2013, they did around $400 million in total export.  Italy is their biggest trading partner....taking up roughly a quarter of all exports leaving the country.  All of this leads to a GDP position of $13.5 billion....which ranks them around 143rd in the world (2012), with Haiti and Niger both doing better than Kosovo (that's pretty bad, if you ask any economics expert).

Sadly, if you didn't have the Greek episode brewing and all this Russia-Ukraine mess....some EU folks could have time and enthusiasm to plan around Kosovo....giving some European countries incentives to plant smaller companies there....build up a better road and rail network....and give the general guy on the street a chance of a better income level.  You could easily put in a manufacturing company.....pay Kosovo employees half of what a guy requires in France or Austria, and jump-start the Kosovo economy....bringing unemployment down from thirty-five percent to eight-percent in a very short period of time.

Yeah, it's a curious story, which ARD or any of the German news services could dig into....make some folks interested in infrastructure and investing into Kosovo, and turn a pretty negative story over time into a positive story......if they'd just focus on some of the aspects of the whole picture.  Instead, they will make it a negative immigration story....and we all know where that leads onto.

German Teens and Scooters

There's a German phonenom that I've come to notice about German teens and scooters.

When you get to around fourteen years old in Germany.....you can go and take a local (usually run by the school your kid goes to or the community itself) class, take a test, and get a 25-kph scooter license.

What usually transpires next is that you the parent....goes out and helps the kid buy a used or new scooter, which is geared to much higher speeds (even 100 kph).  The mechanic will be told by the parent to take off a piece to the gearing system....thus limiting the bike to a max speed of 2, 5-kph.

At sixteen, you can take the next phase of training, and a test....to upgrade. Once certified by the trainer, you go back to the mechanic....hand him the missing piece....he installs it into the gearing system, and you get the higher speeds.

What typically happens here in Germany, after the kid gets the first license (the 25-kph limit)......only after a week or two....he's discovered that this speed really won't cut it.  It's too slow.

So the kid will hunt around the garage or basement, until he finds this missing piece.  He goes to some kid in the neighborhood who has messed around with scooters and can do the minor modification in ten minutes.  The kid now has full speed.  Yes, ILLEGAL if you were wondering about this.

There's then three scenarios that play out.  One, the kid wrecks the scooter on some road or street with the higher speeds.  Two, the kid accidentally makes it through two years and tests....getting the new license and life goes on.  Three, the kid gets noted by the cops, with his scooter confiscated until a court hearing, and likely no license opportunity for five years (even the car license).

I bring this up.....because here in the state of Hessen over the weekend.....we had two fifteen year-old speed demons on scooters who got the interest of the cops.  Cops gave chase....going over eight kilometers in this little chase, at speeds of 100 kph or more (as they cops noted).  One kid finally took a curve at too high of speed and lost control of the scooter.  Cops catch him, but his friend makes it away.

What the cops say is that the kid is going to get a court appearance and face two charges.  It's virtually zero chance of avoiding any court action or talking his way out of a conviction.  No license opportunity for several years?  Very likely.  A fine?  Very likely, as well.

How often does this occur?  Cops won't say much.  I usually note at least once a year....some five-minute news piece by the local networks which talk to this subject.  Cops will run some summer test of a village.....a day long....just cruising around and watching for scooter traffic on a Saturday afternoon.  They can bust a dozen kids easily.

I noted this past summer where the news folks covered a school visit.....where the cops noted a dozen scooters in the school parking lot....so they walked over and demanded each owner come out of the school and put their scooter onto a device which measured maximum speed.  Half the kids failed.  Each got a court summons and ticket.  Luckily, they weren't caught speeding....but the odds are some type of loss of their scooter for some period of time.

Sunday Night Political Chat

After Sunday evening's Tatort (crime murder show on ARD, Channel One)....comes the Gunter Jauch political topic-chat show.  I sat and watched it last night.  The topic was....Ukraine, the peace deal trying to be arranged by Germany and France, and the threat of the US allowing defensive weapons into the situation.

It was an odd mix of five participants....Herr Jauch, a former US diplomat who is fairly knowledable on the global events, a retired German general, the number two guy of the EU, and a ARD Moscow reporter.  It took me about eight minutes to grasp that all this chatter had to do deal mostly with the Ukraine and Russia.....which means it should have involved three other individuals.....a Ukraine government official, a rebel official, and a Russian diplomat.  But for some reason.....the real people who mattered....weren't invited to the chat.

There was a bit of intellectural talk over what kind of war this was......a war of aggression versus a civil war.  If you define the war, then the hype over who to condemn is easier to label (my gut feeling over the talkers in this conversation).

By end of the discussion.....you had a fairly big label put upon the US.....that we were into something that we had no business in (kind of the same talk from 1916 and 1940).  This was European business and so the US wasn't needed.

As for the bad guy in this episode?  Several of the chat participants tried awful hard not to condemn Russia or Putin.  It made sense.....up to the point of where you asked how this would end without Russia pulling support from the rebels and the whole mess stopping at that point.

The defensive weapons talk of the US?  That disturbs some folks from Germany.  Oddly....if you live in Poland or neighbors of Russia....they aren't exactly in tune with the German sentiment.  They see a different type of Russia than from a decade ago.  These other neighbors of Russia are advocating the defensive weapons.

What is likely the agenda of Russia now?  Draw this peace talks business out for a number of months, restart various stages of conflict or trouble with other neighbors of Russia, then restart peace talks again, and continue this off-and-on tactic until both French and German governments get reshaped by elections.  Make chaos, where no chaos existed before.