Friday, February 20, 2015

Germany on the International Stage

To read the German position on both Greece and the takes a fair amount of reading but it's a pretty simple story.

On of last night, Greece has sent in a request for a six-month extension....basically saying they will "comply"....then listed a few things which fall into their agreement of the situation.  For Germany, it's insubstantial and considered a very limited agreement.

It's fairly easy to read through the Greek position.....they want six months because they simply don't have enough planning put into bringing the Drachma back.  This new leadership has had at best....three weeks to beg some type of extension from the EU.  They don't have the funding to survive this six months of efforts to get out of the's that simple.  Germany knows this.  Whether the EU just votes on this to appease Greece and screw the unknown, but I'd lean more toward this scenario.

On the Ukraine?  Well....the peace treaty is crap.  It never really started and the Ukrainians have to be asking what Germany will prevent the US plan of defensive weapons from coming in.  The Germans?  They are stuck.  They can't put down any more trump cards on Russia, and they've gone to the maximum on the Russian economic boycott.  There's nothing left in the magic bag of tricks.

My general prediction is that civil war is about to go up a notch.....ten thousand Ukrainians are going to arrive by early April in Germany to claim asylum or refugee status.  I think the Poles and Czechs will will them travel through and help them reach Germany.  By mid-summer, I might even predict thirty-thousand Ukrainians in Germany, with the number growing to 60,000 by the end of 2015.

In some ways, the Germans asked for this.....but the typical German has no grasp of the trade deal that the EU created and started this mess with.....nor do the political chat folks on German TV really sit down to analyze this completely.  At some point, the anti-US slant will come up, and you just grin because they have no idea how to explain this to the public.....except that the evil America is behind it.

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