Tuesday, August 25, 2015

The Problem With the Ten Points

Journalists came out today with the ten points that Germany lists for the big meeting in roughly eight weeks.  They want the EU to discuss the ten points and come to some mutual agreement.  After reviewing the ten points, I'd say it's next to impossible for most of the ten to be agreed upon.

1. Establish humane conditions for refugees across the EU.  This means some central authority would have to exist....involved in inspecting and raising 'heck' with camp operations and standards that might differ from country to country.  Germany and France might easily agree to this, but it's hard to see Greece or Italy agreeing.  Providing drinking water, some type of shelter, and basic food might work.  But then someone will disagree about a tent being acceptable as a facility.  Tents usage in winter-time?  Another problem area.  Even an old barracks converted over to refugee usage.....might not be acceptable.  Heated food only once a day?  Someone might say something negative about that.

2. Create a common European standard of asylum.  The Germans want a phrase or standard that says these conditions allow a person to come and stay....and these conditions will be a reason to deny a person asylum.  They want each country to accept that standard.  I have strong doubts that it'll work beyond three or four countries.  Everyone will have their own version of the standard and some might say this standard will work, but once you reach a magic number of asylum seekers....all bets are off.

3. Distribute refugees evenly across Europe.   This is a catch-phrase for the Germans.  Basically, it'd create a big problem for probably over seventy-percent of the refugees coming in.  If you had your heart set ONLY on Germany, and you got a computer sheet saying you have to go into Poland, immigrate there and stay at least three years minimum.....you might be upset by this and want to refuse the order.  If all EU players do the same standard on this.....it might disturb a lot of people.  The odds of the EU countries agreeing?  They'd have to agree to take tens of thousands possibly, and I don't that being acceptable across the board.

 4. A standard EU approach to border control.  Some countries are disturbed about the way that some southern neighbors are handling the border issue.  Spain, Austria, Greece, and others.....have a problem.  I see almost no agreement occurring on this border issue.

5. Assist members states taking the pointed end of the asylum seekers.  This is mostly a German comment dealing with Greece and Italy.  Both need additional help.  Beyond just handing them cash....it's hard to say how this would work.

6. Decrease loss of life in the Mediterranean Sea.  The news media has pumped up this issue.  I'd say on German nightly news.....it's a feature for at least five nights a week minimum.  How to increase the safety?  You'd basically have to place a ferry down in Libya and Lebanon.....and just carry the people across yourself....say two or three thousand a day.  I don't see anyone coming to the table and having some fancy idea on how to fix the problem. It's mostly unsolvable.

7. Standards of deportation for those who failed asylum applications.  What the Germans would like is a simplified EU agreement that might allow for quick deportation.  If you listed five conditions where you would fail the asylum application, in a matter of 72-hours....then you'd be put on the bus or plane and quickly moved out....the Germans might be happy with that idea.  I'm sure no one will agree on an extremely short review period, but maybe this could occur within ten to twenty days and satisfy the bulk of countries.

8. Define safe countries of origin.  What Germany wants is a listing that says these countries are 'safe' and these are 'unsafe'.  Once defined and agreed upon.....a blitz-like denial could easily be put in place and some folks might find themselves having wasted sixteen days walking up to Germany.....only to discover it take fourteen hours to hustle them back to Bosnia.  The odds of this being agreed upon?  The bulk might agree to three or four countries on the safe list.....beyond that....I don't think it'll come to any real conclusion. Added to this....fake passports might suddenly become a fad for 'safe' folks to acquire and announce while they seem to speak Albanian.....they are Iraqi.

9. A new immigration standard.  It's difficult to say what this really means.  Perhaps more explanation on integration.....maybe more on how many people a year could be accepted....maybe some details on how to deny people with suspected problem backgrounds....but you don't know.  In computer language, you usually create an area called "*.*" to handle all the oddball problems and this might fall into that category.

10. Challenge the flight problem in both Africa and the Mideast.  Easily said than done.  Stability in either region.....how?  You'd have to use military strength and that won't happen.  Bribing the officals to be kind?  I don't see that happening.  This listed item is a dead-end.

I do agree, there needed to be central meeting of the EU states over this whole issue.  But the ten points will be next to impossible to find solutions to....that are agreeable across the spectrum.  The safe origins point might be the only item which is quickly discussed and quickly agreed upon by most countries....but the list might be awful short on 'safe' and thus making the Germans unhappy in the end.

No comments: