Saturday, June 11, 2016

The Referendum That Comes

In twelve days, the EU Referendum in the UK will occur.  By nine PM that night....the results will be known.

In 1973, the UK joined the EU community.  Edmund Heath was the Prime Minister at the time.  Two years would pass, and under the guidance of Harold Wilson....a referendum was held and 66-percent of the nation voted 'yes' for the entry idea.

In 1991, the UK went to the next level by saying that it wanted most of the EU entanglements, but without the Euro as a currency.  They would keep the Pound.

Right now....the polling anticipates that "Leave the EU" is around 55 percent, meaning "Stay in the EU" is near 45 percent.  With only ten days one expects this move much more than two points up or down.

A month ago, at least with my humble opinion....I would put the stay-crowd nearer to 52 percent.

So the question is.....what's happened between 1975 and 2016 to make a major of British anti-EU?

Rather than simplfied text that some intellectual folks at the BBC would try to deliver and convince the public that they are simply wrong....there is a trail that the EU has taken over the past two decades....which makes one question the mechanism that's been built.

The current trade treaty being worked between the EU and the US.....the TTIP....has been kept mostly under secrecy.  Most everyone in the UK, and for that matter....throughout a bit peeved because of the secrecy and the anticipation that someone will get screwed.  Is the EU guy acting in the best faith for Denmark?  Or for the UK?  Or for Italy?  You can't be sure.

The refugee crisis in the EU?  There's a fair amount of hostility brewing in the UK, and the rest of Europe....over the direction of the immigration episode.

The budget episode and rescue package for Greece?  You can walk into any British pub and find that a vast majority are against any further help for Greece.  They'd like to kick them out of the EU, but the gate-keepers of the EU are firmly against anyone leaving....either on their own or being forced out.

The trade guidelines and rules handed out yearly by the EU?  More of a comedy act than anything else.

The threats made over the past week or two by the Germans....on how no trade with EU member states will occur with the UK, if they exit?  That just got more grit into the teeth of the British that the Germans would make such a treat.

On the day after the 23rd...if the 'leave' vote wins.....I anticipate at least two countries mounting a referendum of their own by early spring of 2017 (Austria probably will be one of the two).  Some worry will occur because there's a trend going on.  By the close of this least three countries will have a vote scheduled by the end of 2017.  If there were three more exit-partners in this mess besides the UK.....then it's hard for me to imagine the EU continuing without some massive change in attitude.

The ECB banking 'monster' in Frankfurt?  It was supposed to be a creation that would take currency and economics within the EU and proceed ahead as one joint state operation.  A lot of folks have put time, effort and sweat into it's creation.  There are various strategies laid out by each European country with a dependent nature upoin the ECB to deliver.  A swing against the EU wold open up thousands of questions about the survival of the ECB.

So, if you were looking for an authentic can of worms.....this British vote is such a thing.

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