Ever since WW II ended, German elections have generally resulted in a 60-to-80 percent vote with the SPD and CDU/CSU combined:
1948:
SPD, 29.2
CDU/CSU: 31.0
1953:
CDU/CSU: 43.7
SPD: 29.5
1957:
CDU/CSU: 50.3
SPD: 32.0
1961:
SPD: 36.5
CDU/CSU: 40.0
1965:
SPD: 40.1
CDU/CSU: 38.8
1969:
SPD: 44
CDU/CSU:46.6
1972 (Snap Election):
SPD:48.9
CDU/CSU: 45.4
1976:
SPD: 43.7
CDU/CSU: 48.9
1980:
SPD: 44.5
CDU/CSU: 46.0
1983 (another snap election):
SPD: 40.4
CDU/CSU: 52.1
1987:
SPD: 39.2
CDU/CSU: 47.7
1990 (another snap election although related to united Germany and expanded Bundestag):
SPD: 35.2
CDU/CSU: 45.7
1994:
SPD: 38.3
CDU/CSU: 45.0
1998:
SPD: 43.8
CDU/CSU: 40.0
2002:
SPD: 41.9
CDU/CSU: 41.1
2006:
SPD: 38.4
CDU/CSU: 40.8
2009:
SPD: 27.9
CDU/CSU: 39.4
2013:
SPD: 29.4
CDU/CSU: 45.3
These two center parties have kept a fairly reliable political apparatus in place for over fifty years. In most elections.....they could keep 70-percent or higher of the population within the center core of politics.
So, today? This week, the CDU was noted at 32-percent, the CSU near 8-percent, and the SPD at 21-percent. The federal election is 16 months away, and there is some fear that the CDU and SPD will both lose some points and be near a 50-percent election in 2017.
The shift? People have taken positions on immigration and integration. The core political agenda isn't able to keep half the population happy.
Note: statistical data from Wiki, and one should note that even when the CDU/CSU count was higher than the SPD.....it doesn't mean that they won the election. It's only that they operate as separate entities and in German politics.....the top vote-getter is the controller of the government.
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