Thursday, June 16, 2016

What Happens With the Austria Vote?

I spent about an hour today....reading through this whole episode.

So, the simple facts.  The 22 May 2016 runoff, between the remaining two possible candidates (the Green Party guy and the right-wing FPO)....led to a 31,000 vote difference (1-percent), with the Green Party winning.  What can be said is that some folks noticed some unusual things from the election.  They started to add these up....particularly with the absentee ballots.  With one town, 146-percent of the public came out to vote. can do it up to a hundred-percent and probably get away with it, but not 146-percent.

So they turned some complaints into the Constitutional Court.  They've agreed.....things seem a bit screwed up.  If this were one or two districts, with 10,000 votes, and the possibility that three or four guys just plain screwed up.....they'd likely allow it to stand.  Because there's only 31,000 votes between them, and the odds that more than 50-percent of the districts screwed-up in some just doesn't look good.  What the court that they will come back by 6 July and render their judgement.....either let it go, and establish a re-vote.

The odds here?  I think they will get close to 100,000 votes being suspect.  That will be a problem that the court can't get around.  So, I am predicting a revote....likely by the 2nd Sunday in August.  That will allow five weeks for ballots to be made and the two parties to do another run-up.  It'll allow for training and emphasis for the clerks NOT to screw up again.

What happens with the make-up election?

Well, there's this big problem....the BREXIT election will occur and the right-wing folks might have some slight advantage by talking anti-EU.  The odds that the vote will repeat with the Greens one-percentage point ahead?  I kinda have my doubts.

Could the Court just say was fine and let things be?

My guess is that every single member of the court would prefer that the Green Party guy remain the winner, and not invent some way that the right-wing party comes out the winner.  The problem is.....there are probably more than 30,000 votes that can't be explained in some tidy way and it invites discussions for years to come over the stupidity of the whole government.

Putting both BREXIT and a Austrian vote up in this summer? really opens up a can of worms.

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