Saturday, February 25, 2017

How the September Election May Go

The morning of 25 September 2017 will dawn in Germany, and the results of the election will be laid out.

While the election revolves around 40 political really comes down to six parties and how the public perceived the past, present, and future.

Sixty days ago, I would have predicted that Merkel (of the CDU) would easily win with roughly 35-percent of the vote (combined with the CSU of Bavaria).  Today?  With the arrival of "Mega" Schulz as the new front man for the SPD Party....things have changed.  The SPD is sitting around 32-percent....two points ahead of the CDU (depending on which poll you read).

There is a trend underway.  The general public has three basic things on their mind.

1.  Immigration, safety, and crime.

2.  A fresh new Chancellor with a new prospective.

3.  Promises of new benefits for the middle-class and families.

The SPD can deliver on two of these.  They will avoid the immigration, safety and crime topic as much as possible.  The news media will help on this matter by not focusing as much within the weekly news and chat forums.

The odds of a SPD win?  They've yet to see any results of the three state elections, which might suggest some public discontent with "Mega" Schulz and the SPD Party.  They've yet to see any real campaign efforts.  They've yet to experience togh questions in debates.  And "Mega" Schulz has yet to face any terror acts or serious criminal talk.....which he'd have to make some positions way or another.

What happens if Merkel loses?

The general talk is that the SPD will form the next government with the Green Party and Linke Party.  Some SPD members aren't happy about this team episode of the Linke Party and the consequences of them running two or three of the cabinet positions.  Just to suggest that the Linke Party might get the Interior Minister position or the Finance Minister position....would bring on serious debate within the SPD Party.

All of these programs that "Mega" Schulz has promised?  Well....they all cost money, and would require more taxes.  Some would have a harsh affect on companies and the way that they do business.  Somewhere along the third quarter after the SPD win.....I'd expect a couple of companies to announce that some part of the operation was going to move out to France, or Poland.  The idea of the BREXIT bank jobs leaving London and going into Frankfurt?  That idea would immediately halt and I think either Amsterdam or Paris would suddenly be the chief point of interest for the bank jobs.

My best guess is that some elements of the economy would slow down, and a minor trend would occur with less tax revenue occurring, and the unemployment rate would shift (presently 5.9-percent)....with a 7-percent rate likely by the end of 2018 (if this election result were to occur).

Of all the EU members.....Germany is one of the very few with a low rate of unemployment.  If they did have the 10-percent a number of countries currently suffer from....this would be a totally different election and about different complaints.

With "Mega" Schulz in charge....the migration and immigration trends would is.

The 2021 election?  Oddly, this would be a very critical election with negativity brewing across all sectors.  Greater unemployment, more migrants, more safety and crime issues, high taxation, etc.

The bully-tactics or bias of the news folks?  They might be able to carry things for a year....but there is such a negativity about the news media in Germany....that long-term help for "Mega" Schulz and the SPD Party just isn't possible.  They'd have to take down comment-boards and avoid letting the public comment on various stories (a trend that already exists to some degree).

Micky Mouse-politics?  I give it this title because of gimmicks involved.  A lot of promises are laid out which involve funding.  If you don't deliver, the public becomes disgruntled.  So you start to tax more to reach a 'magic kingdom' stage.  Those taxes end up making you less competitive....which might make other European countries happy because they can now get contracts easier and hire up more folks.  Germans will wake up in the middle of this great cartoon....wondering what happened and eventually realize that they were all part of some great episode.

Maybe I'm wrong and Merkel stages some last minute changes to retake the lead.  Maybe.

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