Saturday, August 25, 2018

The Four Elections of 2019 in Germany

There are four elections coming up in 2019 (after this fall's Hessen and Bavaria state elections), and these four in 2019 will probably 'matter':

1.  June, the EU representative election.

2. September, Brandenburg.

3. August, Saxony.

4.  September, Thuringia.

Here's the big three issues:

First, for the EU election....typically you don't get a big crowd (a normal crowd) to show up for EU elections.  At best, it'll run around 50-to-60 percent.  There's some expectation that right-wing groups will win more than usual....causing some additional friction in the EU.

Second, both the CDU and SPD are doing badly in Germany, and I don't expect either to show any gains in the three German state elections.  I would look toward the Linke Party, the AfD, and the Greens to take a higher number than the last election in each state.

Third, Merkel-enthusiasm will have finally run out, and these elections might be chatting more about the next evolution coming to Germany. 

So mark your calendar and prepare for some chaotic politics toward the end of 2019. 

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