Down in Stuttgart on Saturday evening.....the German police got a phonecall to react to a weird driver.
This starts off shortly after midnight, and what they find is some guy with his mother in the car....driving in some crazy way. His adventure halted when he finally hit some advertising pillar. At this point, he got mom out of the car and started to walk away.
The police ask him to halt, and the guy reacted by turning on them, and having a 'sword' (roughly 30 inches long). The police reacted, trying at first to use pepper spray from the distance (no one says how far, but it's probably at least ten feet away). That failed, and so they (two cops) reacted by using their pistols. Yep, that was mostly it for the guy. Dead.
The mom? She had some type of injuries.....probably more so from the accident.
Nutcase? Yep, as the police went into the investigative phase, the guy was mentally unstable.....living at home.
SWR picks up most of the story.
The police union picked up the topic and bluntly said that if the state would just approve tasers....this guy would still be alive.
Tasers are a delicate subject in Germany. Various political parties are against them, saying that a subject might have a heart condition and the taser would kill him. Course, the cop-comeback is that with a pistol....the heart condition wouldn't matter.
The states with taser use or soon-to-occur? Berlin-City, with Hessen and the Pfalz to soon have police armed with the tasers. The rest? It could be another decade before all of the states approve them.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Speed Chatter
German foundations and university organizations often brag over the studies they've completed.
Today, there's an interesting piece from ARD TV news (public German TV, Channel One) which chats over this curious suggestion by the national auto insurance folks. In strong words, they kinda admitted that no one (even them) has ever studied the impact of speed limits over various times or periods of the day.
They lay out several interesting factors. One is that roads and autobahns are typically designed for higher speeds. It's like getting on the autobahn A4 just north of Fulda in central Germany and driving direct east on A4 direct to Dresden. It's a great drive, with scenic views. With low traffic density, almost no curves, and great quality....a guy could easily accelerate up to 160 kph (100 mph) and not even think about the speed or potential threat to his life.
The A63 going from Mainz to Kaiserslautern is similar to that experience.....other than the first mile or two near Mainz or the last mile or two to Kaiserslautern, there is no real traffic on the road, and you don't think about speed limits.
From this news piece.....one idea which is put out there....is the idea of speed limits just for daytime use....say from 6AM to 10PM. This is mostly because the bulk of traffic operates in this time-slot. Most Germans (I'd take a guess near 90-percent), do their driving in this early morning to mid-evening period. Rarely are you going to find Germans who are drive between 10PM and the early morning hours.
But by suggesting this.....what is the new limit that one might prescribe? No one says much then.
The lack of scientific data? It kinda stands out. You can't make a logical decision, based on 'nothing'.
If they did do a scientific study....would it even be able to suggest something? That's the other issue.
You can typically break accident situations in Germany down to five features: (1) weather related (including black ice, or sleet), (2) drivers affected by narcotics or alcohol, (3) inattentive truck drivers (now an increasing problem), (4) drivers not grasping the environment or road conditions, and (5) mechanical failure.
The potential for wildlife situations triggering an accident? This is something that rarely ever happens on autobahns....because of the fencing. The amusing thing for me is that I live in a suburban village which has a 4-mile road leading to it, and over the past six years....there's been at least a hundred accidents where some 'critter-incident' has occurred (deer, wild boar, foxes, etc), and they've even gone to put up a sign at both ends.....to warn folks about this potential (note, you can't even drive 100 kph any longer on this road) accident.
The question here....even if you did the studies....would any of the five features be affected by a speed limit (say 130 kph)? To be honest, in terms of weather issues....you'd have to lower speed limits to meet street/road conditions, and we could be talking about it being less than 30 kph....to make a difference.
Limiting truck drivers to just 80 kph? That would put them on the road for even longer periods of time, and trigger more attempts to 'cheat' on the system.
Mechanical failure might be added in terms of an accident occurring at 130 kph versus 180 kph.
But here's the thing.....I suspect if you gathered up a hundred normal German drivers (male and female).....the bulk of them (if tested over a month)....probably never went above 130 kph. I might even suggest that 10-percent never went over 100 kph. Those residing within the city limits of Munich or Stuttgart? They may have never left the city limits in the month-long test, and never went above 60 kph within the city.
So is this discussion really going to be resolved if three-quarters of the German public is already imposing their own personal speed limit, and driving at 130 kph or less? This is the comical side of this whole discussion.
Lets add this one unique topic into the discussion as well.....if all this data was laid out and proven, would the insurance companies then suggest a 'black box' to establish the safer drivers, and offer them up a one-third off on insurance costs? This is likely where the long-term discussion is going.....mandating the black-box technology.
Eventually, you'd have the other crowd (the group who routinely goes 140 to 180 kph) who opt for the higher rate of insurance (paying one-third more) in order to drive at the higher speed.
Today, there's an interesting piece from ARD TV news (public German TV, Channel One) which chats over this curious suggestion by the national auto insurance folks. In strong words, they kinda admitted that no one (even them) has ever studied the impact of speed limits over various times or periods of the day.
They lay out several interesting factors. One is that roads and autobahns are typically designed for higher speeds. It's like getting on the autobahn A4 just north of Fulda in central Germany and driving direct east on A4 direct to Dresden. It's a great drive, with scenic views. With low traffic density, almost no curves, and great quality....a guy could easily accelerate up to 160 kph (100 mph) and not even think about the speed or potential threat to his life.
The A63 going from Mainz to Kaiserslautern is similar to that experience.....other than the first mile or two near Mainz or the last mile or two to Kaiserslautern, there is no real traffic on the road, and you don't think about speed limits.
From this news piece.....one idea which is put out there....is the idea of speed limits just for daytime use....say from 6AM to 10PM. This is mostly because the bulk of traffic operates in this time-slot. Most Germans (I'd take a guess near 90-percent), do their driving in this early morning to mid-evening period. Rarely are you going to find Germans who are drive between 10PM and the early morning hours.
But by suggesting this.....what is the new limit that one might prescribe? No one says much then.
The lack of scientific data? It kinda stands out. You can't make a logical decision, based on 'nothing'.
If they did do a scientific study....would it even be able to suggest something? That's the other issue.
You can typically break accident situations in Germany down to five features: (1) weather related (including black ice, or sleet), (2) drivers affected by narcotics or alcohol, (3) inattentive truck drivers (now an increasing problem), (4) drivers not grasping the environment or road conditions, and (5) mechanical failure.
The potential for wildlife situations triggering an accident? This is something that rarely ever happens on autobahns....because of the fencing. The amusing thing for me is that I live in a suburban village which has a 4-mile road leading to it, and over the past six years....there's been at least a hundred accidents where some 'critter-incident' has occurred (deer, wild boar, foxes, etc), and they've even gone to put up a sign at both ends.....to warn folks about this potential (note, you can't even drive 100 kph any longer on this road) accident.
The question here....even if you did the studies....would any of the five features be affected by a speed limit (say 130 kph)? To be honest, in terms of weather issues....you'd have to lower speed limits to meet street/road conditions, and we could be talking about it being less than 30 kph....to make a difference.
Limiting truck drivers to just 80 kph? That would put them on the road for even longer periods of time, and trigger more attempts to 'cheat' on the system.
Mechanical failure might be added in terms of an accident occurring at 130 kph versus 180 kph.
But here's the thing.....I suspect if you gathered up a hundred normal German drivers (male and female).....the bulk of them (if tested over a month)....probably never went above 130 kph. I might even suggest that 10-percent never went over 100 kph. Those residing within the city limits of Munich or Stuttgart? They may have never left the city limits in the month-long test, and never went above 60 kph within the city.
So is this discussion really going to be resolved if three-quarters of the German public is already imposing their own personal speed limit, and driving at 130 kph or less? This is the comical side of this whole discussion.
Lets add this one unique topic into the discussion as well.....if all this data was laid out and proven, would the insurance companies then suggest a 'black box' to establish the safer drivers, and offer them up a one-third off on insurance costs? This is likely where the long-term discussion is going.....mandating the black-box technology.
Eventually, you'd have the other crowd (the group who routinely goes 140 to 180 kph) who opt for the higher rate of insurance (paying one-third more) in order to drive at the higher speed.
Sunday, December 29, 2019
Wind Generators and Health in Germany
Over the past couple of years, I've spent a fair amount of time trying to understand the negative health aspects of wind generators in Germany. Ten years ago, it might have come up once or twice a year in the German news....today, I'd say that almost monthly, you get some report from commercial or public news over the health issue.
What this is mostly about? I would draw the line and say that some Germans (those who live in more rural areas) are now consumed about a decreasing quality of life.
You won't find the wind generators anywhere near major cities in Germany. They are typically found in flat rural areas with sloping hills. In the region driving from Kaiserslautern to Mainz (a normal 45 minute drive....less so if you drive like me)....you can count around eighty of them on both sides of the autobahn. Some are at least a mile from any village or farm. Some are within 500 ft of a village or farm house.
Germans who are distressed over their local wind generator....will mostly talk about stress, sleeping issues, migraine-type headaches, mental impairment (often using the word 'depression'), and inability to concentrate.
The reporter will arrive and this Q and A session will start up....with the German 'victim' showing anger and venting frustration that they can't get the state political folks to react to their problem. They want the local wind generator gone, and believe that unless you make a 'verboten' rule.....nothing will get fixed.
Some of the journalists have gone to the next step....asking actual scientists (usually with some university operation) to stand up and address the issues and health aspects.
The scientist/professor will go to one of four dialogs:
(1) Infrasound (a low frequency situation). They kinda admit that animals are usually the ones reacting (like cows or dogs), and not enough has been done with humans to say in a factual way that can stand up in a court. If you examine this problem, then you'd open the door over autobahn traffic near a village, and a hundred different things which generate infrasound in highly urbanized areas.
2. Static electricity. Factually, you can prove that the blades on a generator will interact with the air, and that more static exists around the generators. To be a factor from 500 meters away? Well, again, more tests would need to be accomplished, and the fact that some people might react more intensely to this? Yeah, that's also part of the view.
3. View 'flicker'. Some people believe (again, the testing is not there)....that the continual movement of the blades are a problem for people to continually view....almost like a hypnosis episode. You can imagine a gal on the balcony, with a cocktail in her hand and watching a full hour of rotation, and it having some type of dynamic effect upon her.
4. Finally, to the mental side of 'blame' assignment. One professor suggested that people have an abundance of personal issues, and that they routinely need to assign blame to someone or something....to make themselves feel better. If the blades were just removed, their problem would dissolve away (so they believe). I haven't heard this reasoning used often but it might go and explain why the numbers of frustrated people keep increasing.
All of this leading to some national political chaos one day, and mandating dozens of new rules on the placement of wind generators? I would speculate that we are entering a period over the next decade where tests will be conducted, and some of the issues will be proven....putting the whole wind generator industry into a difficult situation to survive.
What this is mostly about? I would draw the line and say that some Germans (those who live in more rural areas) are now consumed about a decreasing quality of life.
You won't find the wind generators anywhere near major cities in Germany. They are typically found in flat rural areas with sloping hills. In the region driving from Kaiserslautern to Mainz (a normal 45 minute drive....less so if you drive like me)....you can count around eighty of them on both sides of the autobahn. Some are at least a mile from any village or farm. Some are within 500 ft of a village or farm house.
Germans who are distressed over their local wind generator....will mostly talk about stress, sleeping issues, migraine-type headaches, mental impairment (often using the word 'depression'), and inability to concentrate.
The reporter will arrive and this Q and A session will start up....with the German 'victim' showing anger and venting frustration that they can't get the state political folks to react to their problem. They want the local wind generator gone, and believe that unless you make a 'verboten' rule.....nothing will get fixed.
Some of the journalists have gone to the next step....asking actual scientists (usually with some university operation) to stand up and address the issues and health aspects.
The scientist/professor will go to one of four dialogs:
(1) Infrasound (a low frequency situation). They kinda admit that animals are usually the ones reacting (like cows or dogs), and not enough has been done with humans to say in a factual way that can stand up in a court. If you examine this problem, then you'd open the door over autobahn traffic near a village, and a hundred different things which generate infrasound in highly urbanized areas.
2. Static electricity. Factually, you can prove that the blades on a generator will interact with the air, and that more static exists around the generators. To be a factor from 500 meters away? Well, again, more tests would need to be accomplished, and the fact that some people might react more intensely to this? Yeah, that's also part of the view.
3. View 'flicker'. Some people believe (again, the testing is not there)....that the continual movement of the blades are a problem for people to continually view....almost like a hypnosis episode. You can imagine a gal on the balcony, with a cocktail in her hand and watching a full hour of rotation, and it having some type of dynamic effect upon her.
4. Finally, to the mental side of 'blame' assignment. One professor suggested that people have an abundance of personal issues, and that they routinely need to assign blame to someone or something....to make themselves feel better. If the blades were just removed, their problem would dissolve away (so they believe). I haven't heard this reasoning used often but it might go and explain why the numbers of frustrated people keep increasing.
All of this leading to some national political chaos one day, and mandating dozens of new rules on the placement of wind generators? I would speculate that we are entering a period over the next decade where tests will be conducted, and some of the issues will be proven....putting the whole wind generator industry into a difficult situation to survive.
Saturday, December 28, 2019
Augsburg Case Still Developing
A few weeks ago, I essayed a piece on the murder of a Augsburg region firefighter who went with his wife and another couple to the city Christmas Market, got into some kind of brawl, and ended up dead (with seven juveniles potentially as suspects). So more has occurred since then.
I should note, that the seven ran from the scene, but because of cameras in use.....pictures were noted and all seven were brought into a judges chamber. However, because of the age business.....all are treated as juveniles....meaning none of them can get serious time in prison for the 'act'.
So last week, the juvenile court system in the local area had reviewed the evidence, and dismissed six out of the seven. One 17-year-old kid was held then on the dangerous bodily harm, and homicide. Most folks thought that six were then 'safe'.
Well, yesterday, the prosecutor came right back on the six released, to a regional judge who had standing over the local judge, and he reinstated their charges. Same as homicide or dangerous bodily harm? It doesn't appear that way....simply being accessories to the first guy seems to be their situation.
N-TV tells part of this basic story.
Whats the deal about? I would take a guess that in the city of Augsburg.....this murder episode has drawn a lot of public attention. The fact that the police noted early on that the bulk of the seven had interacted with the police before (they had notes in their records)....triggered people to ask more questions.
But here's the thing, as long as you are in juvenile status in Germany (ages 14 to 20)....you will not get serious jail time for bad behavior. The German perception (going back decades) has been that you can't be really that responsible for your actions until you are regarded as an adult (meaning over the age of 20). There are continual pressures on the system to modify itself, and the political system continues resist these pressures.
As for the six associates? Even if you convict them on some accessory charge, I would have serious doubts that they'd do more than six months in some juvenile detention center.
I should note, that the seven ran from the scene, but because of cameras in use.....pictures were noted and all seven were brought into a judges chamber. However, because of the age business.....all are treated as juveniles....meaning none of them can get serious time in prison for the 'act'.
So last week, the juvenile court system in the local area had reviewed the evidence, and dismissed six out of the seven. One 17-year-old kid was held then on the dangerous bodily harm, and homicide. Most folks thought that six were then 'safe'.
Well, yesterday, the prosecutor came right back on the six released, to a regional judge who had standing over the local judge, and he reinstated their charges. Same as homicide or dangerous bodily harm? It doesn't appear that way....simply being accessories to the first guy seems to be their situation.
N-TV tells part of this basic story.
Whats the deal about? I would take a guess that in the city of Augsburg.....this murder episode has drawn a lot of public attention. The fact that the police noted early on that the bulk of the seven had interacted with the police before (they had notes in their records)....triggered people to ask more questions.
But here's the thing, as long as you are in juvenile status in Germany (ages 14 to 20)....you will not get serious jail time for bad behavior. The German perception (going back decades) has been that you can't be really that responsible for your actions until you are regarded as an adult (meaning over the age of 20). There are continual pressures on the system to modify itself, and the political system continues resist these pressures.
As for the six associates? Even if you convict them on some accessory charge, I would have serious doubts that they'd do more than six months in some juvenile detention center.
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Knife Story
Early here in the AM (in Germany), N-TV news (commercial news network) carried this basic story....which goes to a moral lesson....never try to moderate extreme disputes that involve more than two people.
So over in Aue, Germany....about 100 miles east of Fulda (central region), this Christian group was having a holiday party.
Aue is not a big city.....maybe 16,000 residents....is mostly known for mining (copper and titanium) and making cutlery.
This local Evangelical group (Lutherans) had a 'function' on the evening of the 24th....mostly designed for the lesser in society (the welfare folks). A noble effort, to which most would agree.
The cops relate most of this story.....some type of argument came up with an older guy (in his 50s) out of Syria. No one ever says what the argument was over, other than it involved the gift-giving moment. Maybe the other party didn't appreciate this guy's gift, or maybe this guy was trying to trade his gift over to someone else. You just don't know how these things start up.
But at some point in this function, the older Syrian guy was kicked out. Again, bit and pieces are left out of the story and you have to wonder if the church had a 'bouncer' or some private security folks who handled stuff like this. I'd readily admit that it's rare that you ever get kicked out of a Christmas party event.
After this kick-out....several local Arab guys arrive at the church office. What the cops say now is that a new guy entered into the situation....a mid-30s Iranian guy. Maybe he was the other party who got the older Syrian all upset, but you can't be sure about this business.
So the Lutheran minister now steps into the middle of this situation....with the Iranian, and the other local Arab guys. Maybe the minister had good intentions and felt he could moderate this, but things were a bit heated by this point, and a knife comes into play.
Yes, in the heat of the moment, it's the Lutheran minister who gets stabbed (in the gut), along with the Iranian guy. The worst of the stabbing....went to the minister, and he was lucky enough (it appears now) to survive the episode.
The attacking crowd? They scattered after the event. Based on reporting, it doesn't appear that the police have caught up with them yet.
So you stand back to look over this landscape. The church had good intentions, and this minister put out a lot of effort to moderate what should have been a simple but small disagreement.
Over the years, I've come to notice that Persians (Iranians) are not exactly in the same category as Arabs (say Egyptians, Syrians or Iraqis). It might be safe to say that insulting or upsetting by one group against the other....might be easily triggered.
The odds that the Christmas party business will occur in 2020? Maybe, but it'll probably involve half-dozen policemen in uniform, and I doubt if the minister will ever do any moderating on arguments ever again.
So over in Aue, Germany....about 100 miles east of Fulda (central region), this Christian group was having a holiday party.
Aue is not a big city.....maybe 16,000 residents....is mostly known for mining (copper and titanium) and making cutlery.
This local Evangelical group (Lutherans) had a 'function' on the evening of the 24th....mostly designed for the lesser in society (the welfare folks). A noble effort, to which most would agree.
The cops relate most of this story.....some type of argument came up with an older guy (in his 50s) out of Syria. No one ever says what the argument was over, other than it involved the gift-giving moment. Maybe the other party didn't appreciate this guy's gift, or maybe this guy was trying to trade his gift over to someone else. You just don't know how these things start up.
But at some point in this function, the older Syrian guy was kicked out. Again, bit and pieces are left out of the story and you have to wonder if the church had a 'bouncer' or some private security folks who handled stuff like this. I'd readily admit that it's rare that you ever get kicked out of a Christmas party event.
After this kick-out....several local Arab guys arrive at the church office. What the cops say now is that a new guy entered into the situation....a mid-30s Iranian guy. Maybe he was the other party who got the older Syrian all upset, but you can't be sure about this business.
So the Lutheran minister now steps into the middle of this situation....with the Iranian, and the other local Arab guys. Maybe the minister had good intentions and felt he could moderate this, but things were a bit heated by this point, and a knife comes into play.
Yes, in the heat of the moment, it's the Lutheran minister who gets stabbed (in the gut), along with the Iranian guy. The worst of the stabbing....went to the minister, and he was lucky enough (it appears now) to survive the episode.
The attacking crowd? They scattered after the event. Based on reporting, it doesn't appear that the police have caught up with them yet.
So you stand back to look over this landscape. The church had good intentions, and this minister put out a lot of effort to moderate what should have been a simple but small disagreement.
Over the years, I've come to notice that Persians (Iranians) are not exactly in the same category as Arabs (say Egyptians, Syrians or Iraqis). It might be safe to say that insulting or upsetting by one group against the other....might be easily triggered.
The odds that the Christmas party business will occur in 2020? Maybe, but it'll probably involve half-dozen policemen in uniform, and I doubt if the minister will ever do any moderating on arguments ever again.
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Nothing is Free Story
"Climate protection is not free of charge."
-- Wolfgang Schauble, President of the Bundestag (basically the Speaker of the German Assembly).
It is a great quote, and he is basically telling the German public that various costs are involved, and that just desiring to save-the-world....isn't going to be a cost-free action.
The problem in this 'warning' is that Germans tend to remember things....like when the Stuttgart leadership spoke to the cost of the Stuttgart-21 renovation project, and how the cost tripled in nature over a period of five years. The same occurred with the Hamburg concert hall....the Berlin Airport, and so on. Just having some idiot stand in front and say only these jobs are lost or that the cost will only amount to one trillion Euro for the residents of Germany....isn't going to work.
This past week in Germany....one of the young people associated with the Fridays-for-the-Future crowd noted that you didn't need to worry about Grandparents standing against the Friday's agenda....because they weren't going to be around for long. Yes, as you can imagine, that got hyped up in public attention, and quickly got deleted from the social media posting.
It is a continual trend in German public news now....where various groups talk of agendas, programs, tax increases, and mandates. It's a popular trend with young people....much less so with older people.
Missing Story
There's a curious piece I watched yesterday on SWR TV (Pfalz regional public TV). It has to do with missing Germans.
So from all of 2019, there are around 300 Pfalz residents who came up missing (for that matter, the majority....245....were gone more than 60 days).
Cops will take the report and at least make an effort to find the individual....mostly out of fear that an accident occurred or maybe the gal's bike went off the side of a cliff.
With a population of just over 4-million, the police say they average around 200 additions and deletions every single day to the missing database. Some folks return home.....some just walk out. But the bulk (just over 50-percent) of folks missing....are usually found within seven days of the original report being issued. A lot of these would simply be teenagers fed up with 'control' and left to stay over at some friend's house for a week or two.
So you come down to the list of folks who are on the list for 12 months, and the police say that only 3-percent of the folks who get on the list.....make it through past 12 months.....still missing.
The curious piece to the story is the note that unaccompanied minor children (refugee kids under 18) tend to fall on the list a fair amount. The journalist doesn't really ask any questions over this. The fact that they don't get picked up or noticed in another state? This would make me ask more questions. Did the kids leave Germany? Did the kids travel back to Syria or Tunisia? Or are the kids simply camping out in the woods for long-term? It kinda leaves you wondering.
So from all of 2019, there are around 300 Pfalz residents who came up missing (for that matter, the majority....245....were gone more than 60 days).
Cops will take the report and at least make an effort to find the individual....mostly out of fear that an accident occurred or maybe the gal's bike went off the side of a cliff.
With a population of just over 4-million, the police say they average around 200 additions and deletions every single day to the missing database. Some folks return home.....some just walk out. But the bulk (just over 50-percent) of folks missing....are usually found within seven days of the original report being issued. A lot of these would simply be teenagers fed up with 'control' and left to stay over at some friend's house for a week or two.
So you come down to the list of folks who are on the list for 12 months, and the police say that only 3-percent of the folks who get on the list.....make it through past 12 months.....still missing.
The curious piece to the story is the note that unaccompanied minor children (refugee kids under 18) tend to fall on the list a fair amount. The journalist doesn't really ask any questions over this. The fact that they don't get picked up or noticed in another state? This would make me ask more questions. Did the kids leave Germany? Did the kids travel back to Syria or Tunisia? Or are the kids simply camping out in the woods for long-term? It kinda leaves you wondering.
Monday, December 23, 2019
Frankfurt Attack Closure
The episode in Frankfurt, back from late July, where the migrant from Africa (established in Switzerland for roughly a decade) pushed a eight-year old German kid in front of a train....killing him....is pretty much finished.
Today, the prosecutor from Frankfurt received all the medical review records. The Eritrean guy is certified as uncontrollable. They will ask a judge to sign off on the paperwork.
HR (Hessen TV public news) covered the bulk of the story.
Paranoid Schizophrenia to the max? Yes.
The only thing left out of the coverage is whether Germany gets stuck with the guy, or if Switzerland (where his residency is) ends up with the guy.
The question over whether he was always that way....from 2005 to now? Based on past commentary out of Switzerland.....he started to lapse in the past two years into a serious problem.
Today, the prosecutor from Frankfurt received all the medical review records. The Eritrean guy is certified as uncontrollable. They will ask a judge to sign off on the paperwork.
HR (Hessen TV public news) covered the bulk of the story.
Paranoid Schizophrenia to the max? Yes.
The only thing left out of the coverage is whether Germany gets stuck with the guy, or if Switzerland (where his residency is) ends up with the guy.
The question over whether he was always that way....from 2005 to now? Based on past commentary out of Switzerland.....he started to lapse in the past two years into a serious problem.
Apprentice Story
There's an interesting story over at ZDF (public German TV, Channel Two) over the national apprentice program.
Starting in January, the national program 'pay' scale will start at 515 Euro a month (roughly 570 dollars).
The current program? Depending on where you live, like eastern Germany for example....the starting point is around 390 Euro a month. In western Germany....particularly with more technical skills, it could be up around 1,000 Euro a month (1,200 dollars).
What most will tell you (say in the first year), they are all happy with the income, and continue to live at home. Most will also tell you that if the boss offers up overtime opportunities....they seize the chance. Then you come to the second year, and a majority will say that the income level isn't enough, and most start to aspire to move out of dad's house.
Starting in January, the national program 'pay' scale will start at 515 Euro a month (roughly 570 dollars).
The current program? Depending on where you live, like eastern Germany for example....the starting point is around 390 Euro a month. In western Germany....particularly with more technical skills, it could be up around 1,000 Euro a month (1,200 dollars).
What most will tell you (say in the first year), they are all happy with the income, and continue to live at home. Most will also tell you that if the boss offers up overtime opportunities....they seize the chance. Then you come to the second year, and a majority will say that the income level isn't enough, and most start to aspire to move out of dad's house.
Sunday, December 22, 2019
The Von der Leyen 'Scandal'
From December 2013 to July of 2019, Ursula von der Leyen was the Defense Minister of Germany (CDU Party). In the July 2019 time-frame, because of the EU President's position being open....various efforts were made to open the door and allow her to move up that position. Today, she's the most known person of the EU structure.
For the past three years, there's been this scandal brewing in Germany over an odd defense topic....contractor support. The opposition parties (mostly the Greens and Linke folks) have developed questions, and suggest that a crisis has developed.
The contractor support? There is no suggestion with evidence to say that it only started in this 2013 to 2019 period. The German military has probably had some type of contractor support for well over twenty years. What the suggested problem is that under Von der Leyen, the number of contractors escalated.
A necessity? Well, you can look at the US military and the necessity of bringing on contractors really starting in the 1990s, with the arrival of a lot of technical equipment, and a constant need for qualified people to repair or operate the equipment. The Germans simply arrived at the same point....having a vast amount of technology in defensive weapons, and needing qualified people to ensure operations.
The opposition parties believe that there is some type of quid pro quo going on....they want evidence. So we come to the cellphone of Defense Minister Von der Leyen as she left her minister job.
In recent days, they felt they'd finally get to the 'truth' of phone chats, and they'd get to this phone handed over by Von der Leyen. Well....here's the shocker....all data on that phone was deleted shortly after the phone was given back to the government.
Yep, shocker.
Was there a subpoena handed over at the time of the phone being given back to the Defense Ministry? No. This only came up recently. This in some way....is a problem for the opposition parties.
So the accusation? A violation of section 274 of the German criminal code (getting you potentially up to five years in prison and a fine). The section 274? It's about the suppression of documents or evidence.
More of a public relations event than an actual legal threat? Well, they will go through the motions and try to make the Merkel coalition react to the threat. Maybe some judges will wish to jump into the scandal themselves. But then you'd have to prove that some subpoena existed at the time of Von der Leyen leaving, or that this was not accidental.
And what would the phone really give you? Well...that's a minor discussion point. Phone records already exist. So they might be thinking that she saved emails to the phone or text messages. If she saved e-mails, they'd still be on a server and they could reach that server (with a bit of effort), without requiring the stupid phone. Text messages would be the only real potential item here.
So a non-scandal? I would go and almost suggest that it's mostly just political intrigue without much substance.
For the past three years, there's been this scandal brewing in Germany over an odd defense topic....contractor support. The opposition parties (mostly the Greens and Linke folks) have developed questions, and suggest that a crisis has developed.
The contractor support? There is no suggestion with evidence to say that it only started in this 2013 to 2019 period. The German military has probably had some type of contractor support for well over twenty years. What the suggested problem is that under Von der Leyen, the number of contractors escalated.
A necessity? Well, you can look at the US military and the necessity of bringing on contractors really starting in the 1990s, with the arrival of a lot of technical equipment, and a constant need for qualified people to repair or operate the equipment. The Germans simply arrived at the same point....having a vast amount of technology in defensive weapons, and needing qualified people to ensure operations.
The opposition parties believe that there is some type of quid pro quo going on....they want evidence. So we come to the cellphone of Defense Minister Von der Leyen as she left her minister job.
In recent days, they felt they'd finally get to the 'truth' of phone chats, and they'd get to this phone handed over by Von der Leyen. Well....here's the shocker....all data on that phone was deleted shortly after the phone was given back to the government.
Yep, shocker.
Was there a subpoena handed over at the time of the phone being given back to the Defense Ministry? No. This only came up recently. This in some way....is a problem for the opposition parties.
So the accusation? A violation of section 274 of the German criminal code (getting you potentially up to five years in prison and a fine). The section 274? It's about the suppression of documents or evidence.
More of a public relations event than an actual legal threat? Well, they will go through the motions and try to make the Merkel coalition react to the threat. Maybe some judges will wish to jump into the scandal themselves. But then you'd have to prove that some subpoena existed at the time of Von der Leyen leaving, or that this was not accidental.
And what would the phone really give you? Well...that's a minor discussion point. Phone records already exist. So they might be thinking that she saved emails to the phone or text messages. If she saved e-mails, they'd still be on a server and they could reach that server (with a bit of effort), without requiring the stupid phone. Text messages would be the only real potential item here.
So a non-scandal? I would go and almost suggest that it's mostly just political intrigue without much substance.
Why Are German Pharmacies Running Out of Medication?
It is a curious story, told by ZDF (public TV in Germany, Channel Two).
So you have to lead off and ask.....just what drugs are in short supply? Cancer drugs, asthma inhalers, high blood pressure drugs, lower cholesterol pills, psychotropic drugs, and antibiotics.
It's a situation which has only popped up in the past two years....which ought to beg questions on the supply chain and why these shortages exist.
At some point, this probably goes back to around ten years ago....a lot of these drugs were still being produced in Germany, and Europe. Cost of manufacture? It was on a continual upward trend. So various drug companies thought about the issue and did the logical thing....they moved production out of Europe, and into India and China.
I know.....it really begs questions over these companies and the logic they used to save on manufacturing cost, and ensure profitability.
So people started to notice as the production business was firmly anchored in a non-European factory....purity and quality issues started to pop up, and occasionally....a stoppage would occur (maybe for days....maybe for weeks)...while problems were sorted out.
To have this large assortment of drugs in short supply? This begs questions as well, and makes you wonder about continual quality issues, and why they can't be permanently resolved.
Added to this mess, the company didn't have to sell an entire batch of the drug in Germany, or for that matter....in Europe. They could say we made 200 pallets of x-drug this month, and Brazil/Canada/Japan offered a higher sales price....so more than half of the 200 pallets went to those three countries, and everyone else got a lessen distribution.
Forcing a fix to this? Because the companies own the patent to the drugs....most governments are at a loss on repairing this unless you take a anti-capitalist approach and punish the companies in some fashion.....or you go and buy the company and push the production back into Europe itself.
My guess is that this problem will become a top ten issue in the next major German election. But there's little to be done unless the government and went bought three or four companies, and ran them as state companies.
The idea of our good friendly drug-dealers (you know, the cocaine crowd)....getting into production of legal drugs? That's the thing I would wonder about. If you had the formula, and could enter into a quality production capability (even in the jungles of Peru)....you could enter into the European market, and sell your drug easily to consumers....maybe at half the cost of the current drug empires.
So that's the basic story on the medication 'mess'. Affecting people currently? You will see an occasional news mention about the cancer drugs in short supply, and the asthma inhaler folks having to wait a day or two while the pharmacy works to find a source for the inhaler.
So you have to lead off and ask.....just what drugs are in short supply? Cancer drugs, asthma inhalers, high blood pressure drugs, lower cholesterol pills, psychotropic drugs, and antibiotics.
It's a situation which has only popped up in the past two years....which ought to beg questions on the supply chain and why these shortages exist.
At some point, this probably goes back to around ten years ago....a lot of these drugs were still being produced in Germany, and Europe. Cost of manufacture? It was on a continual upward trend. So various drug companies thought about the issue and did the logical thing....they moved production out of Europe, and into India and China.
I know.....it really begs questions over these companies and the logic they used to save on manufacturing cost, and ensure profitability.
So people started to notice as the production business was firmly anchored in a non-European factory....purity and quality issues started to pop up, and occasionally....a stoppage would occur (maybe for days....maybe for weeks)...while problems were sorted out.
To have this large assortment of drugs in short supply? This begs questions as well, and makes you wonder about continual quality issues, and why they can't be permanently resolved.
Added to this mess, the company didn't have to sell an entire batch of the drug in Germany, or for that matter....in Europe. They could say we made 200 pallets of x-drug this month, and Brazil/Canada/Japan offered a higher sales price....so more than half of the 200 pallets went to those three countries, and everyone else got a lessen distribution.
Forcing a fix to this? Because the companies own the patent to the drugs....most governments are at a loss on repairing this unless you take a anti-capitalist approach and punish the companies in some fashion.....or you go and buy the company and push the production back into Europe itself.
My guess is that this problem will become a top ten issue in the next major German election. But there's little to be done unless the government and went bought three or four companies, and ran them as state companies.
The idea of our good friendly drug-dealers (you know, the cocaine crowd)....getting into production of legal drugs? That's the thing I would wonder about. If you had the formula, and could enter into a quality production capability (even in the jungles of Peru)....you could enter into the European market, and sell your drug easily to consumers....maybe at half the cost of the current drug empires.
So that's the basic story on the medication 'mess'. Affecting people currently? You will see an occasional news mention about the cancer drugs in short supply, and the asthma inhaler folks having to wait a day or two while the pharmacy works to find a source for the inhaler.
Odd Relationship of Nord Stream II
Is the Nord Stream II natural gas project a German-Russian government project? No.
It is a deal between Gazprom (the Russian natural gas company) and a number of European gas distribution companies, and European banks. There's not a 'dime' of German taxation money going into the project.
So the revenues from the sales of natural gas.....will pay back the banks who loaned the money, and help generate profits for the gas distribution companies? Yep, that's how it's designed.
If the pipelines already exist between Germany and Russia, via the Ukraine and Poland....why build it? The only sound logic is that currently....both Poland and the Ukraine can siphon off some natural gas....to be bought for x-amount (lower than what the Germans pay) as a condition of the pipeline crossing their property. After this is complete.....you could trim or cut the natural gas flowing, and force them to the table....paying the normal price (or more).
Isn't there natural gas fields in Poland? Yes, and if they required more....they could put up a harbor connection point and buy natural gas off the US.
So why does the government of Germany get so hyped up? Yes, that is the curious question, and to answer that....you'd have to reflect upon the other two pipelines existing and why more were necessary. At this point, this logic has yet to dawn upon the political folks.
It is a deal between Gazprom (the Russian natural gas company) and a number of European gas distribution companies, and European banks. There's not a 'dime' of German taxation money going into the project.
So the revenues from the sales of natural gas.....will pay back the banks who loaned the money, and help generate profits for the gas distribution companies? Yep, that's how it's designed.
If the pipelines already exist between Germany and Russia, via the Ukraine and Poland....why build it? The only sound logic is that currently....both Poland and the Ukraine can siphon off some natural gas....to be bought for x-amount (lower than what the Germans pay) as a condition of the pipeline crossing their property. After this is complete.....you could trim or cut the natural gas flowing, and force them to the table....paying the normal price (or more).
Isn't there natural gas fields in Poland? Yes, and if they required more....they could put up a harbor connection point and buy natural gas off the US.
So why does the government of Germany get so hyped up? Yes, that is the curious question, and to answer that....you'd have to reflect upon the other two pipelines existing and why more were necessary. At this point, this logic has yet to dawn upon the political folks.
Saturday, December 21, 2019
Consequences and the Netherlands
This is a curious story (being told on Friday in Europe), and you will sit and ponder upon the consequences likely to occur.
Years ago (almost 30 years), the Netherlands sent some folks to the EU, and the participants (not just them but all of the nations involved) sat down and drew up a priority list of problems and came to greenhouse gases. They decided that by 2020....you had to cut 25 percent of your emissions. Thirty years was enough, in the minds of those folks meeting, and most of them....have retired from public life or passed on....so you can't really blame or fire them.
In this period (roughly 28 years)....at the conclusion of 2018....they'd actually only cut things by 15-percent (to what the numbers were in 1990).
Is the 15-percent cut number authentic or scientifically derived? Well....you can suggest that it might not be but no one is really disputing the 15-percent number. It's just sitting there and the basis of a serious argument.
Last week (Friday morning) a court stood up and said....you signed papers to promise you'd do 'X', and you have to deliver a 25-percent cut....by the 31st of December of 2020.
Some folks (mostly just environmentalists) claim that you could trigger a number of things to occur in 2020, and put harsh reality on the landscape there (maybe by taxation or by fines....nothing is clear about the intent of these people), and deliver the 25-percent number. Folks (even the court) would be happy about that. Regular Dutch people? Well, you can't be that sure about their happiness.
The reality is that you could do a couple of marginal things, and pump the anticipated number to around 17 to 18 percent of a 1990 cut agreed upon. The court accepting that? No.
So, here's the thing, which you have sit back and sip a serious amount of beer or wine upon.....some political folks are under a judicial watch, and they need to meet X-number. On the other side.....regular consumers, farmers, business people.....all have to be on the negative side of the stick.
Who invented the 25-percent number in 1990? No one talks about that much. You would think that this group of people would be brought out and stand in some public square to explain where they got this magic number.
So here's the thing, on 21 March 2021.....there's another Dutch election. If serious economic damage is done, or farmers go ballistic, or various groups of Dutch people think they've been screwed, then this election goes into a 'dark' direction, and anti-environmentalists will be selected, and a whole new set of consequences falls into play.
It'd be nice to bring the forty-odd main players of 1990 out and have them explain their reasoning, and maybe admit they screwed up. But that's not likely to happen.
Years ago (almost 30 years), the Netherlands sent some folks to the EU, and the participants (not just them but all of the nations involved) sat down and drew up a priority list of problems and came to greenhouse gases. They decided that by 2020....you had to cut 25 percent of your emissions. Thirty years was enough, in the minds of those folks meeting, and most of them....have retired from public life or passed on....so you can't really blame or fire them.
In this period (roughly 28 years)....at the conclusion of 2018....they'd actually only cut things by 15-percent (to what the numbers were in 1990).
Is the 15-percent cut number authentic or scientifically derived? Well....you can suggest that it might not be but no one is really disputing the 15-percent number. It's just sitting there and the basis of a serious argument.
Last week (Friday morning) a court stood up and said....you signed papers to promise you'd do 'X', and you have to deliver a 25-percent cut....by the 31st of December of 2020.
Some folks (mostly just environmentalists) claim that you could trigger a number of things to occur in 2020, and put harsh reality on the landscape there (maybe by taxation or by fines....nothing is clear about the intent of these people), and deliver the 25-percent number. Folks (even the court) would be happy about that. Regular Dutch people? Well, you can't be that sure about their happiness.
The reality is that you could do a couple of marginal things, and pump the anticipated number to around 17 to 18 percent of a 1990 cut agreed upon. The court accepting that? No.
So, here's the thing, which you have sit back and sip a serious amount of beer or wine upon.....some political folks are under a judicial watch, and they need to meet X-number. On the other side.....regular consumers, farmers, business people.....all have to be on the negative side of the stick.
Who invented the 25-percent number in 1990? No one talks about that much. You would think that this group of people would be brought out and stand in some public square to explain where they got this magic number.
So here's the thing, on 21 March 2021.....there's another Dutch election. If serious economic damage is done, or farmers go ballistic, or various groups of Dutch people think they've been screwed, then this election goes into a 'dark' direction, and anti-environmentalists will be selected, and a whole new set of consequences falls into play.
It'd be nice to bring the forty-odd main players of 1990 out and have them explain their reasoning, and maybe admit they screwed up. But that's not likely to happen.
A Debt Story
N-TV brought up this interesting economics story this morning in the German news.
It's been generally known, but not the extent that N-TV drew out the story.....a fairly high number of German towns and villages are in serious debt issues. If you use their numbers....it's a debt of 40 billion Euro.
Most of the municipal operations will admit that they are paying off the debt, but it's eating up their property-tax revenue bucket, and basically requiring them to look at increased taxation, to make up the shortfall.
So the Finance Ministry has stepped into the picture. Based on ample funds existing in the national pot, they are going to siphon off around several billion Euro (they are careful about explaining what 'several' means) and direct it to the affected communities.
What is curious about this....the bulk of these towns that are affected....are in four German states (Hessen, Saarland, Pfalz, and NRW).
How they got so in debt? Around three years ago, there was a community in my region that had debt suddenly become a massive story. This town of roughly 12,000 had a money-manager who'd found this great Swiss banking deal about a decade prior. It was a revolving credit account, with exceptionally low rates on interest. So they signed the deal, and had several million Euro in debt with this Swiss bank. Then one day.....an adjustment occurred with the exchange rate (yep, the Swiss aren't into the Euro). There is fallout, and this interest rate now....coupled with the Euro exchange rate....makes the debt almost double. Crisis stage? Oh yes....to the ninth degree.
The funny thing about this situation.....it wasn't widely reported around Germany, just regionally. But there were dozens upon dozens of towns which had done the exact same thing. All of them went into a crisis stage, and have been in serious debt issues ever since that day.
So here's the amazing statistic to think about....almost 11,000 German communities and towns are in some form of serious debt crisis. This chunk of money they are talking about for relief? It's not near enough to help all of these towns.
It's been generally known, but not the extent that N-TV drew out the story.....a fairly high number of German towns and villages are in serious debt issues. If you use their numbers....it's a debt of 40 billion Euro.
Most of the municipal operations will admit that they are paying off the debt, but it's eating up their property-tax revenue bucket, and basically requiring them to look at increased taxation, to make up the shortfall.
So the Finance Ministry has stepped into the picture. Based on ample funds existing in the national pot, they are going to siphon off around several billion Euro (they are careful about explaining what 'several' means) and direct it to the affected communities.
What is curious about this....the bulk of these towns that are affected....are in four German states (Hessen, Saarland, Pfalz, and NRW).
How they got so in debt? Around three years ago, there was a community in my region that had debt suddenly become a massive story. This town of roughly 12,000 had a money-manager who'd found this great Swiss banking deal about a decade prior. It was a revolving credit account, with exceptionally low rates on interest. So they signed the deal, and had several million Euro in debt with this Swiss bank. Then one day.....an adjustment occurred with the exchange rate (yep, the Swiss aren't into the Euro). There is fallout, and this interest rate now....coupled with the Euro exchange rate....makes the debt almost double. Crisis stage? Oh yes....to the ninth degree.
The funny thing about this situation.....it wasn't widely reported around Germany, just regionally. But there were dozens upon dozens of towns which had done the exact same thing. All of them went into a crisis stage, and have been in serious debt issues ever since that day.
So here's the amazing statistic to think about....almost 11,000 German communities and towns are in some form of serious debt crisis. This chunk of money they are talking about for relief? It's not near enough to help all of these towns.
Van Gogh 'Tour'
It's worth a trip if you live in central Germany to check it out.
Some advice. Forget about parking and use public transportation to get into Frankfurt (train station). Walk out the front door and ride the Tram (#17) across the river (from the train station door, it's 200 ft in front of the Hauptbahnhof, and it'll come from the left, and exit to the right). Some caution....yes, there are some 'weird' individuals directly outside of the door, and it's best to exit and walk straight to the platform.
The tram will stop directly behind the Museum at the Otto Hahn Platz. Roughly four minutes of walking will bring you to the front of the building.
They are closed on Mondays. Opening on normal days? 10 AM.
It's not a cheap ticket, my one complaint of the deal. It'll run until 16 Feb 2020.
I would not make the trip on weekends....too crowded.
Friday, December 20, 2019
The Problem With a 100-Euro Bill
This past week, I went to a ATM machine here in the Wiesbaden region, and out spilled my money (I usually get a couple of 50-Euro and a number of 20-Euro bills). In this case, the machine was mostly out of the smaller bills, and what I got was five 20-Euro bills and two 100-Euro bills.
So on about ten efforts, I've tried to break the 100-Euro bills (a gas station, couple of coffee shops, one electronic shop, etc). So far, I've had no luck.
I'm to the point where I suspect that I'll have to buy something in the cost range of 80 to 90 Euro....to get some store-front to accept at least one single 100-Euro bill. Maybe my fireworks purchase during the week after Christmas might hit that point and allow me to part with that stupid 100-Euro bill.
My wife brought up this problem last year....when the bank tumbled out three one-hundreds to her and virtually no one wanted to deal with the bills.
Fear of counterfeiting? Not really.....most all of these store-fronts now operate a 'checker' machine to ensure that it's not counterfeit. They just don't want the large bills. It's some type of German trend that you wouldn't have expected 30 years ago with the old 100-Deutsche Mark bills.
I'm almost to the point of asking....why bother printing the money, if no one really wants to accept it?
So on about ten efforts, I've tried to break the 100-Euro bills (a gas station, couple of coffee shops, one electronic shop, etc). So far, I've had no luck.
I'm to the point where I suspect that I'll have to buy something in the cost range of 80 to 90 Euro....to get some store-front to accept at least one single 100-Euro bill. Maybe my fireworks purchase during the week after Christmas might hit that point and allow me to part with that stupid 100-Euro bill.
My wife brought up this problem last year....when the bank tumbled out three one-hundreds to her and virtually no one wanted to deal with the bills.
Fear of counterfeiting? Not really.....most all of these store-fronts now operate a 'checker' machine to ensure that it's not counterfeit. They just don't want the large bills. It's some type of German trend that you wouldn't have expected 30 years ago with the old 100-Deutsche Mark bills.
I'm almost to the point of asking....why bother printing the money, if no one really wants to accept it?
What is the Scheuer-Toll Scandal?
If you've watched German news over the past couple of weeks....there's been increasing coverage of the Scheuer-Toll scandal, so I'll lay out the basic story of this Germany 'problem'.
Back around five years ago....a lot of Bavarians were whining about the cost of tolls in Switzerland (roughly 35 Euro per car per year) and Austria (roughly 85 Euro per car per year). So the Bavarian government (mostly the CSU folks) designed this program that would require all non-German vehicles traveling via Germany....to have a sticker on the window and you'd buy it upon crossing the border.
It was a logical 'pay-back' for what the Austrians and Swiss were doing. To be honest, the Czechs do the same thing for their autobahn system (not their normal roads).
So this got pushed up to the national level after the 2017 German national election, and was going 'turbo-speed'. It reached a level where actual contracts were being signed with companies to be the producer of the stickers, and control sales and profits.
Then, the EU stepped in via their court system, and said 'no'.....Germany did not have the right to mandate such a toll system. Logic would dictate that they'd then tell Austria and Switzerland the same thing.....but 'no'.....they were allowed to continue on.
Lots of anger came up in Bavaria over what the EU court system said on this topic.
But now, we've reached the next phase....several companies had signed contracts to support the toll system designed. They want their money....roughly 560-million Euro (roughly 620 million dollars).
Scheuer is the Transport Minister and a member of the CSU Party. He's the guy who is being 'blamed' at this point for the possible fine (if the court agrees). The odds of the entire 560 million Euro cost? I'd give it near 50-percent. The actual contract has not been spelled out and I suspect there are some paragraphs which would help the Transport Ministry wiggle out of most of this. There's probably a quitting fee, and you can figure around twenty to forty million probably will be the fee amount in the end.
As for Scheuer? Is he finished in politics? I would suggest that by the end of 2020....he'll resign and walk away. You can't really blame the guy, because of the EU standard....Germany has no right to toll situations for private cars of other nations. If Germany had made it a toll for both German and non-German cars? I suspect the EU would have accepted this, but the German public wasn't going to accept that type of situation.
Back around five years ago....a lot of Bavarians were whining about the cost of tolls in Switzerland (roughly 35 Euro per car per year) and Austria (roughly 85 Euro per car per year). So the Bavarian government (mostly the CSU folks) designed this program that would require all non-German vehicles traveling via Germany....to have a sticker on the window and you'd buy it upon crossing the border.
It was a logical 'pay-back' for what the Austrians and Swiss were doing. To be honest, the Czechs do the same thing for their autobahn system (not their normal roads).
So this got pushed up to the national level after the 2017 German national election, and was going 'turbo-speed'. It reached a level where actual contracts were being signed with companies to be the producer of the stickers, and control sales and profits.
Then, the EU stepped in via their court system, and said 'no'.....Germany did not have the right to mandate such a toll system. Logic would dictate that they'd then tell Austria and Switzerland the same thing.....but 'no'.....they were allowed to continue on.
Lots of anger came up in Bavaria over what the EU court system said on this topic.
But now, we've reached the next phase....several companies had signed contracts to support the toll system designed. They want their money....roughly 560-million Euro (roughly 620 million dollars).
Scheuer is the Transport Minister and a member of the CSU Party. He's the guy who is being 'blamed' at this point for the possible fine (if the court agrees). The odds of the entire 560 million Euro cost? I'd give it near 50-percent. The actual contract has not been spelled out and I suspect there are some paragraphs which would help the Transport Ministry wiggle out of most of this. There's probably a quitting fee, and you can figure around twenty to forty million probably will be the fee amount in the end.
As for Scheuer? Is he finished in politics? I would suggest that by the end of 2020....he'll resign and walk away. You can't really blame the guy, because of the EU standard....Germany has no right to toll situations for private cars of other nations. If Germany had made it a toll for both German and non-German cars? I suspect the EU would have accepted this, but the German public wasn't going to accept that type of situation.
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Wolf Law Revised Shortly?
I've chatted a good bit over the past five years about the increasing numbers of wolves in Germany, and the likely scenario that wolf hunting will be eventually approved (German environmentalists would be shocked over that suggestion).
Well....today, the Bundestag got around to discussing this.
What they say is that 'yes, wolves are protected'. However, there is now a regulation that you could use for a authorized wolf hunt.
Part of this rule change is the number of wolf attacks on farm animals.
What the law says is that if an attack has occurred in the local area, with state authorities contacted and evidence presented....then they could authorize a wolf to be shot....to ensure no further attacks occur.
Then, and only then....could a hunter be given a permit to hunt in that local area, for that particular wolf.
A lot of 'ifs'? Yes.
You would assume at least 24 hours will be required before the evidence is presented and some hunting 'commission' will approve the hunter, or hunters.....are allowed to start this process. Might that wolf leave the local area? Maybe. But it might be curious how many days are allocated to the hunter. If he gets ten days to start this hunt....he might be able to track the wolf down.
Could this lead to forty-odd wolves killed in one single year? I'm guessing that the environmentalists will work to prevent that, but most farmers aren't exactly pro-wolf, and you could see this regulation go to some extreme.
Well....today, the Bundestag got around to discussing this.
What they say is that 'yes, wolves are protected'. However, there is now a regulation that you could use for a authorized wolf hunt.
Part of this rule change is the number of wolf attacks on farm animals.
What the law says is that if an attack has occurred in the local area, with state authorities contacted and evidence presented....then they could authorize a wolf to be shot....to ensure no further attacks occur.
Then, and only then....could a hunter be given a permit to hunt in that local area, for that particular wolf.
A lot of 'ifs'? Yes.
You would assume at least 24 hours will be required before the evidence is presented and some hunting 'commission' will approve the hunter, or hunters.....are allowed to start this process. Might that wolf leave the local area? Maybe. But it might be curious how many days are allocated to the hunter. If he gets ten days to start this hunt....he might be able to track the wolf down.
Could this lead to forty-odd wolves killed in one single year? I'm guessing that the environmentalists will work to prevent that, but most farmers aren't exactly pro-wolf, and you could see this regulation go to some extreme.
Amri, Breitscheidplatz and Non-Closure
It's been 3 years since the terror attack in Berlin, at the Christmas market on Breitscheidplatz.....with 12 dead and over 50 injured.
You would think by now, with the attacker (Anis Amri) dead in Italy from encountering the police there....that the whole investigation would have been closed with all details known. Well....NO. There are probably a dozen details which simply aren't going to be revealed. Part of this goes to the police, and part to things that the present government doesn't want to discuss.
How did Amri get away? Unknown. The belief is that someone helped him. No one can solve that part.
The one or two details that a AfD Party member knew within a couple hours....related to a 'known Tunisian'? The cops and investigative panel can't conclude how this guy came to know before the cops.
Did the US point out Amri ahead of time on classified chatter? Some details seem to suggest that the Germans were told something, by 'someone', but they don't want to really get into who it was. It would almost look like the Russian KGB came down and told them, and they just didn't want to believe it (my humble belief).
How he got all the way into Italy? Again, someone probably helped the guy, but we don't know who.
It's obvious to the Berlin City Senate panel that some elements of the police are holding back bits of the story. Why? It's anyone's guess. Maybe they are embarrassed or perhaps the lower-level guys tried to tell the bosses, and they failed to grasp the threat.
So the Senate folks will just close this? More or less. It reminds one of the Munich 1980 Oktoberfest attack (13 dead, 200-plus injured), and how bit and pieces of this have only come out in the last three years to really fill in the mystery of that attack.
You would think by now, with the attacker (Anis Amri) dead in Italy from encountering the police there....that the whole investigation would have been closed with all details known. Well....NO. There are probably a dozen details which simply aren't going to be revealed. Part of this goes to the police, and part to things that the present government doesn't want to discuss.
How did Amri get away? Unknown. The belief is that someone helped him. No one can solve that part.
The one or two details that a AfD Party member knew within a couple hours....related to a 'known Tunisian'? The cops and investigative panel can't conclude how this guy came to know before the cops.
Did the US point out Amri ahead of time on classified chatter? Some details seem to suggest that the Germans were told something, by 'someone', but they don't want to really get into who it was. It would almost look like the Russian KGB came down and told them, and they just didn't want to believe it (my humble belief).
How he got all the way into Italy? Again, someone probably helped the guy, but we don't know who.
It's obvious to the Berlin City Senate panel that some elements of the police are holding back bits of the story. Why? It's anyone's guess. Maybe they are embarrassed or perhaps the lower-level guys tried to tell the bosses, and they failed to grasp the threat.
So the Senate folks will just close this? More or less. It reminds one of the Munich 1980 Oktoberfest attack (13 dead, 200-plus injured), and how bit and pieces of this have only come out in the last three years to really fill in the mystery of that attack.
The Diesel Vehicle Story
With all these various efforts in urbanized German cities against diesel vehicles....it's come to pass (over in Darmstadt) that blitz-cameras are now being used to note vehicles (mostly delivery truck that use diesel fuel) and bring them in for fines.
Well, it's been now noted that a bigger issue now exists....with tow trucks (mostly all using diesel fuel) entering the no-diesel vehicle zones, and they are going to be issued tickets.
So you can imagine the German police issuing some paperwork on a illegally parked car, and desiring a tow truck to come and take the vehicle.....and the tow truck folks refusing to enter the urbanized area because of the potential for tickets.
Yes, the system has made itself into a problem and there's no way to resolve this unless you involve more police manpower to escort the tow trucks into the effected area.
Well, it's been now noted that a bigger issue now exists....with tow trucks (mostly all using diesel fuel) entering the no-diesel vehicle zones, and they are going to be issued tickets.
So you can imagine the German police issuing some paperwork on a illegally parked car, and desiring a tow truck to come and take the vehicle.....and the tow truck folks refusing to enter the urbanized area because of the potential for tickets.
Yes, the system has made itself into a problem and there's no way to resolve this unless you involve more police manpower to escort the tow trucks into the effected area.
The Logistical Center 'Fight'
Last night, I watched my regional TV network....HR (public TV for Hessen). Their prime-time show was MEX, which is a fairly decent consumer-business show.
One of their prime subjects last night was this discussion over logistical centers around Hessen.
It may be a shock to some folks but there are around a dozen major logistical centers in Hessen, which support not only this state but the dozen or so German states around Hessen. Most of these are near autobahns, and take up fifty to eighty acres each.
Around the clock, truckers pull in.....load up.....then launch for delivery sites around Germany. The centers provide jobs to local Hessens and various communities make a decent income (property tax) off these operations.
So HR turns in this report, and covers the anti-logistical center demonstrations. Yes, there are hyped-up Germans who are heavily focused on hindering future logistical centers being built and chanting environmental slogans about the terrible things that logistical centers bring.
I sat and watched this. These people appeared to be nicely dressed for winter, in attire that was obviously up-to-date. Some appeared to be a few pounds overweight. And by the end of this video piece.....I kinda wondered.....weren't all of these people shopping for consumer goods and buying groceries via operations that were utterly dependent upon logistical centers existing?
This is one of the curious parts of German society where people get whipped up into a frenzy, and obviously don't think about their attachment to the complaint, or the focus of their demonstrations.
If you walk into any local grocery operation today in Hessen.....they are utterly dependent on a daily delivery by a freight truck....to bring milk, eggs, etc....for the consumers to benefit from. The same is true for pharmaceutical operations, clothing shops, shoe stores, or electronic media shops. Those freight trucks all come from logistical centers. The logistical centers all employ local folks and provide a income situation, with a taxed property base to the local town.
At the conclusion of the video report, I just sat there. This anti-logistical center business, in the end, looked awful foolish. And I kept wondering.....who bundled this up to get public attention like this?
One of their prime subjects last night was this discussion over logistical centers around Hessen.
It may be a shock to some folks but there are around a dozen major logistical centers in Hessen, which support not only this state but the dozen or so German states around Hessen. Most of these are near autobahns, and take up fifty to eighty acres each.
Around the clock, truckers pull in.....load up.....then launch for delivery sites around Germany. The centers provide jobs to local Hessens and various communities make a decent income (property tax) off these operations.
So HR turns in this report, and covers the anti-logistical center demonstrations. Yes, there are hyped-up Germans who are heavily focused on hindering future logistical centers being built and chanting environmental slogans about the terrible things that logistical centers bring.
I sat and watched this. These people appeared to be nicely dressed for winter, in attire that was obviously up-to-date. Some appeared to be a few pounds overweight. And by the end of this video piece.....I kinda wondered.....weren't all of these people shopping for consumer goods and buying groceries via operations that were utterly dependent upon logistical centers existing?
This is one of the curious parts of German society where people get whipped up into a frenzy, and obviously don't think about their attachment to the complaint, or the focus of their demonstrations.
If you walk into any local grocery operation today in Hessen.....they are utterly dependent on a daily delivery by a freight truck....to bring milk, eggs, etc....for the consumers to benefit from. The same is true for pharmaceutical operations, clothing shops, shoe stores, or electronic media shops. Those freight trucks all come from logistical centers. The logistical centers all employ local folks and provide a income situation, with a taxed property base to the local town.
At the conclusion of the video report, I just sat there. This anti-logistical center business, in the end, looked awful foolish. And I kept wondering.....who bundled this up to get public attention like this?
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
A Meat-C02 Tax?
Well, it's been brewing for months, and the Green Party of Germany finally posted their idea....there ought to be a C02 tax on all meats, and meat-related products (to include cheese, milk, yogurt, etc).
N-TV tells most of the story.
What's all of this come down to? Methane production involving animals, and nitrous oxide.
Odds of this passing via the Bundestag? Pretty near zero, but it'll bring various topics of conversation and be some kind of political topic for next couple of months.
N-TV tells most of the story.
What's all of this come down to? Methane production involving animals, and nitrous oxide.
Odds of this passing via the Bundestag? Pretty near zero, but it'll bring various topics of conversation and be some kind of political topic for next couple of months.
Cancer Drug Story
If you've been watching TV news in Germany over the past 24 hours (doesn't matter which network)....you kinda notice this police raid of a pharmaceutical company called ZytoService in Hamburg. Roughly four-hundred police and at least six state prosecutors are involved in this massive raid of the business.
So what exactly happened?
The basic story goes to this.....this company built up a business operations plan where they were able to get 'lucrative' prescriptions done (no one can vouch for what lucrative really means)....which went through the cancer doctors (oncologists).
For two years....there were 'gifts' (some involved interest-free loans, some were for leased luxury cars, and some were in gift-cards). that went to doctors who favored their selection of drugs.
Total amount of fraud, so far discussed? Up to around 9-million Euro. With the info gained from the raid, I might go and suspect that the amount will go higher.
If you go back over the past twenty years.....a number of pharmaceutical companies have gone to the 'gift' method, to get sales on a higher scale via doctors. If you watch the news, about every six months, there's some company or agents who get rounded up, and go through the prosecutor 'drill'.
Will this 'gift' business put some German doctors in serious financial jeopardy? I'm guessing here that lawyers will be hired, and some serious fines will be handed out, and the authorities will avoid discrediting the doctors in some public arena.
The odds that another company will emerge in two years with the same business model? Probably better than 99-percent chance.
Good source for the bulk of this story? I'd suggest ARD, with a update from this morning.
So what exactly happened?
The basic story goes to this.....this company built up a business operations plan where they were able to get 'lucrative' prescriptions done (no one can vouch for what lucrative really means)....which went through the cancer doctors (oncologists).
For two years....there were 'gifts' (some involved interest-free loans, some were for leased luxury cars, and some were in gift-cards). that went to doctors who favored their selection of drugs.
Total amount of fraud, so far discussed? Up to around 9-million Euro. With the info gained from the raid, I might go and suspect that the amount will go higher.
If you go back over the past twenty years.....a number of pharmaceutical companies have gone to the 'gift' method, to get sales on a higher scale via doctors. If you watch the news, about every six months, there's some company or agents who get rounded up, and go through the prosecutor 'drill'.
Will this 'gift' business put some German doctors in serious financial jeopardy? I'm guessing here that lawyers will be hired, and some serious fines will be handed out, and the authorities will avoid discrediting the doctors in some public arena.
The odds that another company will emerge in two years with the same business model? Probably better than 99-percent chance.
Good source for the bulk of this story? I'd suggest ARD, with a update from this morning.
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
The Little 'Army' To Fight German Right-Wing Extremism
If you read through the various news sources of Germany, it's come out today via the Interior Ministry (the German version of Homeland Security)....that they now believe that right-wing extremism has reached a level.....requiring approximately 600 additional folks at the national and state-levels.....eye-ball and control threats from the right-wing extremists. ARD (public TV) covers the bulk of the story.
The money required for this? Apparently approved by the Bundestag and Finanzamt.
Has right-wing extremism grown to the point where you need a special bureau for just them? This is debatable.
Some will say that since 2013 and the refugee crisis period....that right-wing extremism has grown at great proportions. Some will suggest that in the five eastern states.....it's now a major deal. Some will say that several attacks and a couple of murders are now part of a trend.
Will this bureau be only for right-wing extremism? Well, that's the funny thing about this whole discussion. Virtually every single comment made....suggests that they will only face right-wing extremists.....not left-wing extremists. Is there currently a left-wing extremist problem? Again, this gets into a debatable situation. So far, over the past three years, you can't point any murders on the left-wing. You can point at fires, some assaults (very limited), and thug activity on construction/renovation projects.
The odds that the left-wing extremists will become a problem? Maybe, but that's not to discuss here today. Then you might go and ask the really stupid question....would the right-wing extremist police bureau be across the street from the left-wing extremists police bureau? Could they even be in the same building or structure. I kinda doubt it.
Would all of this lead to some crisis down the road in twenty years.....with both bureaus competing for funding and public perception? I might go and suggest that by 2040....two bureaus will exist and be at some serious level of public mistrust.
The money required for this? Apparently approved by the Bundestag and Finanzamt.
Has right-wing extremism grown to the point where you need a special bureau for just them? This is debatable.
Some will say that since 2013 and the refugee crisis period....that right-wing extremism has grown at great proportions. Some will suggest that in the five eastern states.....it's now a major deal. Some will say that several attacks and a couple of murders are now part of a trend.
Will this bureau be only for right-wing extremism? Well, that's the funny thing about this whole discussion. Virtually every single comment made....suggests that they will only face right-wing extremists.....not left-wing extremists. Is there currently a left-wing extremist problem? Again, this gets into a debatable situation. So far, over the past three years, you can't point any murders on the left-wing. You can point at fires, some assaults (very limited), and thug activity on construction/renovation projects.
The odds that the left-wing extremists will become a problem? Maybe, but that's not to discuss here today. Then you might go and ask the really stupid question....would the right-wing extremist police bureau be across the street from the left-wing extremists police bureau? Could they even be in the same building or structure. I kinda doubt it.
Would all of this lead to some crisis down the road in twenty years.....with both bureaus competing for funding and public perception? I might go and suggest that by 2040....two bureaus will exist and be at some serious level of public mistrust.
The Italian Driver Story
There's a driver's case that entered court in Speyer, and it concluded yesterday. SWR (public TV, regional) covered the story.
I had briefly discussed this about two months ago....the professional executive driver (from Italy), who'd been driving for a long while, and got stopped by the cops.
His chief problem was that he was 'working' in Germany, and still carried the Italian license, which had long since expired. The cops validated the number of 'drives' with the onboard system....added up the points, and came to 373 points (a hell of a lot).
The court situation? Well, they confiscated his executive transport vehicle, and sentenced the guy to 8 months in prison. Yes, it is a bit of a severe sentence, and likely to be challenged in court. If the onboard system hadn't recorded the 'drives', the court would not have been able to reach the 373 points or the prison requirement.
All of this brings up the German point system for driving issues. If you discussed this with most Germans, they'd admit over a 30-year period that they might have racked up five to eight points.....mostly for speeding. The key feature of the German point system is the limited nature of the points. For most of the one-point episodes, there's a 2.5 year limitation....meaning that it goes away eventually.
A serious infraction (creating an accident with extremely bad decisions)? A 3-pointer, and that could be around for 10 years.
Here's the thing, once you reach the scale limit of 8 points, that license is gone for six months minimum, and you can figure some remedial driving course required (figure 1,500 Euro minimum).
This Italian guy? I'm guessing that he's sitting there in the prison and fellow inmates are asking what kind of criminal he is, and he responds that he's a professional driver. And they will sit there amazed.....over the limited nature of his crime.
I had briefly discussed this about two months ago....the professional executive driver (from Italy), who'd been driving for a long while, and got stopped by the cops.
His chief problem was that he was 'working' in Germany, and still carried the Italian license, which had long since expired. The cops validated the number of 'drives' with the onboard system....added up the points, and came to 373 points (a hell of a lot).
The court situation? Well, they confiscated his executive transport vehicle, and sentenced the guy to 8 months in prison. Yes, it is a bit of a severe sentence, and likely to be challenged in court. If the onboard system hadn't recorded the 'drives', the court would not have been able to reach the 373 points or the prison requirement.
All of this brings up the German point system for driving issues. If you discussed this with most Germans, they'd admit over a 30-year period that they might have racked up five to eight points.....mostly for speeding. The key feature of the German point system is the limited nature of the points. For most of the one-point episodes, there's a 2.5 year limitation....meaning that it goes away eventually.
A serious infraction (creating an accident with extremely bad decisions)? A 3-pointer, and that could be around for 10 years.
Here's the thing, once you reach the scale limit of 8 points, that license is gone for six months minimum, and you can figure some remedial driving course required (figure 1,500 Euro minimum).
This Italian guy? I'm guessing that he's sitting there in the prison and fellow inmates are asking what kind of criminal he is, and he responds that he's a professional driver. And they will sit there amazed.....over the limited nature of his crime.
Monday, December 16, 2019
Is It Possible To Buy a First Rail Ticket, and Yet Have No Seat?
Yep. With the Bahn.....just having a ticket means absolutely nothing. You need to have have a reservation with the ticket.
Up to six months before your trip, you can ask for a reservation....looking at the empty seats projected, and select where you want to sit.
Doing this all via an App? Yes, with the DB Navigator, which you can load to your tab or Smart-phone.
Cost? 4.50 Euro for one person, 2nd class. 5.90 Euro for one person, 1st class. Family rate? 9 Euro for second class.
Odds of failing to get the reservation and finding an empty seat? On weekends, between major cities (Hamburg to Frankfurt)....I'd say that you have only a 50-50 shot of finding a seat. Early morning or late evening trips would improve your odds.
So bottom line, if this is a two-hour ride.....go make the reservation and ensure you have a seat.
Up to six months before your trip, you can ask for a reservation....looking at the empty seats projected, and select where you want to sit.
Doing this all via an App? Yes, with the DB Navigator, which you can load to your tab or Smart-phone.
Cost? 4.50 Euro for one person, 2nd class. 5.90 Euro for one person, 1st class. Family rate? 9 Euro for second class.
Odds of failing to get the reservation and finding an empty seat? On weekends, between major cities (Hamburg to Frankfurt)....I'd say that you have only a 50-50 shot of finding a seat. Early morning or late evening trips would improve your odds.
So bottom line, if this is a two-hour ride.....go make the reservation and ensure you have a seat.
Railway Story
There's a fair amount of Bahn (railway) chatter this morning (I'll reference this to a N-TV news report from this AM)....on positive future railway travel.
The Bahn folks say that very shortly....every major city in Germany will have a ICE train (high-speed rail train) that will leave every 30 minutes for another major German city.
Now, I admit.....they are careful about the wording. For example, they will talk about the Hamburg to Berlin route, or the Stuttgart to Munich route.
Enticing more people to use the train? To some degree. Germans have a willing nature to use trains, it's just that so many negative things happen along the way (lack of seats, AC broke, trains operating late, or broken-down situations). Because of this, there is continual apprehension over such travel.
Infusion of more tax revenue into the system to upgrade the rails? This might help to some degree. If you could cut 30 minutes off the Munich to Berlin route....it'd probably be a plus-up. If you repaired the AC units more often in the summer, it'd help. If you ensured empty seats existed on a train from Frankfurt to Dusseldorf, it'd help.
But I will say this....if you compared rail travel today against the way it was in 1985....it's greatly improved. It's just that you have expectations, and when you step on a remarkably new train....to discover that of the six cars....only the toilets in two cars work, you start to shake your head over the modern era. Or you get on a train that has a cafe in the middle....but then discover that it's non-functional today, so there's no coffee for this three-hour trip. All of these little inconveniences add up.
The Bahn folks say that very shortly....every major city in Germany will have a ICE train (high-speed rail train) that will leave every 30 minutes for another major German city.
Now, I admit.....they are careful about the wording. For example, they will talk about the Hamburg to Berlin route, or the Stuttgart to Munich route.
Enticing more people to use the train? To some degree. Germans have a willing nature to use trains, it's just that so many negative things happen along the way (lack of seats, AC broke, trains operating late, or broken-down situations). Because of this, there is continual apprehension over such travel.
Infusion of more tax revenue into the system to upgrade the rails? This might help to some degree. If you could cut 30 minutes off the Munich to Berlin route....it'd probably be a plus-up. If you repaired the AC units more often in the summer, it'd help. If you ensured empty seats existed on a train from Frankfurt to Dusseldorf, it'd help.
But I will say this....if you compared rail travel today against the way it was in 1985....it's greatly improved. It's just that you have expectations, and when you step on a remarkably new train....to discover that of the six cars....only the toilets in two cars work, you start to shake your head over the modern era. Or you get on a train that has a cafe in the middle....but then discover that it's non-functional today, so there's no coffee for this three-hour trip. All of these little inconveniences add up.
Madrid and the Climate Conference
Over the past two weeks, I've probably watched around four hours of interviews, news bits, forum chats, and expert analysis from this climate conference in Madrid, Spain. I watched it via the BBC, France 24, N-TV (German commercial TV news), ARD and ZDF (the two German public TV networks), and occasionally CNN.
Yesterday, the news folks kinda wrapped up the whole 'drama'. It's best to describe the two week episode as a total failure (nothing was signed or agreed upon). Some might say that various points were gotten across, but beyond that....it was simply a wasted trip for most of the individuals there.
Why? I would offer five observations:
1. I think roughly half the attendees (nations) arrived with some minor notions of the requirement, and suddenly came to realize that there was going to be intense pain, suffering, and taxation involved, and the political parties of those nations weren't going to sign up for nothing that dramatic.
2. The problem of the youth-agenda folks versus the political establishment? This was played out over and over for the two-week period. Trying to introduce Greta into this, and expect easy acceptance of her agenda? It simply didn't work.
3. A normal day for the attendees? At one point in the first week....some attendee talked about the schedule....getting up at 6 AM, attending the all-day conference, eating out at 8 PM, having an after 10 PM cocktail or wine meeting with foundation people, and not getting to bed until midnight.
You could forecast ahead of time that by the 7th day of this type of week.....you would have been completely out of enthusiasm. Toward the end of the 2nd week, folks were laying around on couches or sleeping at tables. For some of them, I doubt if they had more than 50 hours of sleep over a 10-day period.
4. Madrid, for some, is more of a party-town, than a place where you'd conduct serious chatter like this. I'm not condemning the selection of Madrid for the COP25 meeting but it'd be awful easy to arrive and skip 3 hours here and 4 hours there....to chill out and make this more of a tourist adventure, than a conference trip.
5. Was there ever one single solution that would fit into the agendas of 100-plus countries? You could ask this over and over, and get a dozen different answers. I think that problem stood out by the end of the two weeks.
The next climate conference? 9 November 2020, in Glasgow, Scotland. Oddly, it occurs a week after the US election, and probably will be affected in some way by that vote/result. Odds of agreement in the 2020 meeting? I would go and forecast it already.....near zero.
Yesterday, the news folks kinda wrapped up the whole 'drama'. It's best to describe the two week episode as a total failure (nothing was signed or agreed upon). Some might say that various points were gotten across, but beyond that....it was simply a wasted trip for most of the individuals there.
Why? I would offer five observations:
1. I think roughly half the attendees (nations) arrived with some minor notions of the requirement, and suddenly came to realize that there was going to be intense pain, suffering, and taxation involved, and the political parties of those nations weren't going to sign up for nothing that dramatic.
2. The problem of the youth-agenda folks versus the political establishment? This was played out over and over for the two-week period. Trying to introduce Greta into this, and expect easy acceptance of her agenda? It simply didn't work.
3. A normal day for the attendees? At one point in the first week....some attendee talked about the schedule....getting up at 6 AM, attending the all-day conference, eating out at 8 PM, having an after 10 PM cocktail or wine meeting with foundation people, and not getting to bed until midnight.
You could forecast ahead of time that by the 7th day of this type of week.....you would have been completely out of enthusiasm. Toward the end of the 2nd week, folks were laying around on couches or sleeping at tables. For some of them, I doubt if they had more than 50 hours of sleep over a 10-day period.
4. Madrid, for some, is more of a party-town, than a place where you'd conduct serious chatter like this. I'm not condemning the selection of Madrid for the COP25 meeting but it'd be awful easy to arrive and skip 3 hours here and 4 hours there....to chill out and make this more of a tourist adventure, than a conference trip.
5. Was there ever one single solution that would fit into the agendas of 100-plus countries? You could ask this over and over, and get a dozen different answers. I think that problem stood out by the end of the two weeks.
The next climate conference? 9 November 2020, in Glasgow, Scotland. Oddly, it occurs a week after the US election, and probably will be affected in some way by that vote/result. Odds of agreement in the 2020 meeting? I would go and forecast it already.....near zero.
Sunday, December 15, 2019
D-Mark Story
Last night via ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two), there was this really short 'fact' laid out and lasted for about 20 seconds.
We've yet to cross the 20-year point since the Euro arrived, and the old Deutsch (German) Mark was retired.
But here's this little curious fact....12.46 billion Marks still exist (would amount to around 24 billion Dollars). They've never been exchanged.
Yep. The law says that the government must honor the changeover (even if it takes a thousand years). And they've tracked this since day one of the Euro.
The division? 6.6 billion Marks are in coins, and 5.8 billion Marks are in bills.
What the government says is that around 70 to 90 million Marks come in each year....but it's on decreasing scale....fewer and fewer each year.
So where is the money? No one is really sure.
There are several theories to this.
One is that the crime syndicates from the 1960s to the 2000 era....stashed away a lot of D-Marks, and it'd be awful hard to walk into a German bank and present 16-million D-Marks and explain how you came to acquire it. You could easily get away with presenting 100,000 D-Marks, and claiming that Grandma left it in a shoebox and died five years ago.
Some people believe that the old East German government had a fair amount of the money (maybe up to a billion Marks) hidden away (in personal bank boxes). But again, how would you explain this at the bank if you wanted to exchange the money?
Retired Russian generals holding millions? Maybe.
The coins? Lots of Americans came in this era of the 1950s to 2000, and everyone went back to the states with dozens of coins. So there might be easily two or three billion coins out there....in the hands of hundreds of thousands of former military folks.
In my own house? There's probably 20 D-Marks still residing and there's little interest in returning the currency.
Does it create a problem for the currency and banking folks? Well, it simply lays out a curiosity. I don't think any of them anticipated it adding up to 12-billion Marks.
We've yet to cross the 20-year point since the Euro arrived, and the old Deutsch (German) Mark was retired.
But here's this little curious fact....12.46 billion Marks still exist (would amount to around 24 billion Dollars). They've never been exchanged.
Yep. The law says that the government must honor the changeover (even if it takes a thousand years). And they've tracked this since day one of the Euro.
The division? 6.6 billion Marks are in coins, and 5.8 billion Marks are in bills.
What the government says is that around 70 to 90 million Marks come in each year....but it's on decreasing scale....fewer and fewer each year.
So where is the money? No one is really sure.
There are several theories to this.
One is that the crime syndicates from the 1960s to the 2000 era....stashed away a lot of D-Marks, and it'd be awful hard to walk into a German bank and present 16-million D-Marks and explain how you came to acquire it. You could easily get away with presenting 100,000 D-Marks, and claiming that Grandma left it in a shoebox and died five years ago.
Some people believe that the old East German government had a fair amount of the money (maybe up to a billion Marks) hidden away (in personal bank boxes). But again, how would you explain this at the bank if you wanted to exchange the money?
Retired Russian generals holding millions? Maybe.
The coins? Lots of Americans came in this era of the 1950s to 2000, and everyone went back to the states with dozens of coins. So there might be easily two or three billion coins out there....in the hands of hundreds of thousands of former military folks.
In my own house? There's probably 20 D-Marks still residing and there's little interest in returning the currency.
Does it create a problem for the currency and banking folks? Well, it simply lays out a curiosity. I don't think any of them anticipated it adding up to 12-billion Marks.
Ten Best Books on German History
These are the ten that I'd recommend, if you were going to build a practical knowledge of Germany.....going well past the 1930s, and even going back to the Roman era.
1. Iron Kingdom: The Rise and Fall of Prussia (1600-1947) by Christopher Clark. It's been around for ten years and gives you a wide landscape of history chatter. The negative? 800 pages....you can figure it'll take a good six weeks to finish.
2. The Unification of Germany, by Charles Rivers Editors. This is a simple book (100 pages) which covers the first unification (that bringing the Prussian Empire together). A lot of coverage over the 1800s, and how they reached one single nation status.
3. The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, by Christopher Clark. It's another six-week project (roughly 700 pages). It describes in detail all the pieces that fell together and triggered WW I.
4. Bismark: A Life, by Jonathon Steinberg (2013). It's roughly 600 pages, and it drills down into the most well known Chancellor in German history.
5. Kaiser Wilhelm II: A Life in Power, by Christopher Clark. A lesser known work (only 300 pages, so it's readable in two weeks). It talks at length about the last Kaiser of Germany, and is a a great starting point to understand the 1890s of Germany.
6. Dark Valley by Piers Brendon (2002). This is another lengthy book (848 pages). It talks at length about the 1920s and 1930s, and how Europe itself was proceeding toward WW II. To be honest, it's covering a number of nations (not just Germany), but it's a well written book, with a vast landscape.
7. Debit and Credit by Gustav Freytag. First, you need to note that it was originally written in 1855 by Freytag. There is an English translation from the past decade (via E-books), and a paperback version. It is fictional (it's the only fictional work that I will advocate on German history). From 1850 to 1900....it was the largest selling book on the German market. At some point, Freytag was considered like a national 'folk-hero' (getting his own statue in Wiesbaden), and being a key-speaker. The book is written in the form of Uncle Tom's Cabin, and drills down into the idea of never taking risks or gambling.
8. A Short History of the Weimar Republic by Colin Storer (2013). Roughly 250 pages, and easily read in a month. It covers the 14-year history of the Weimar Republic, and the political chaos of the period. If you hate politics, then the book is not for you. However, it does detail the major players of the 1920s, and the things fell apart, and reshaped it to be Hitler's 'toy'.
9. Weimar Culture: The Outsider as an Insider, by Peter Gay (1968). Roughly 250 pages, easily read in a few weeks. This book talks at length about the media landscape, entertainment, and 'fun-factor' that existed after WW I. It's a unique period in Germany, and just about everything that would have been forbidden in the Kaiser era....was now allowed.
10. A Mighty Fortress, by Steven Ozment. From 2005, around 250 pages. It's a decent introduction to the Roman era of Germany.
Some other suggestions:
- Germany: A History, by Francis Russell (230-odd pages, 2015). A history professor-type book and lays out the landscape.
- Mein Kampf, by Hitler. First, it's an awful difficult book (actually two volumes) to get through, and if you hate political chatter, it's worthless. But if you want to understand the 'sales' point of Nationalist Socialism....it's probably a good starting point.
- Hitler Ascent, by Volker Ullrich (1040 page, 2017). Lots of research, and great landscape, but it's a book that would require a minimum of two months to read. He covers the whole period (1889-1945).
1. Iron Kingdom: The Rise and Fall of Prussia (1600-1947) by Christopher Clark. It's been around for ten years and gives you a wide landscape of history chatter. The negative? 800 pages....you can figure it'll take a good six weeks to finish.
2. The Unification of Germany, by Charles Rivers Editors. This is a simple book (100 pages) which covers the first unification (that bringing the Prussian Empire together). A lot of coverage over the 1800s, and how they reached one single nation status.
3. The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, by Christopher Clark. It's another six-week project (roughly 700 pages). It describes in detail all the pieces that fell together and triggered WW I.
4. Bismark: A Life, by Jonathon Steinberg (2013). It's roughly 600 pages, and it drills down into the most well known Chancellor in German history.
5. Kaiser Wilhelm II: A Life in Power, by Christopher Clark. A lesser known work (only 300 pages, so it's readable in two weeks). It talks at length about the last Kaiser of Germany, and is a a great starting point to understand the 1890s of Germany.
6. Dark Valley by Piers Brendon (2002). This is another lengthy book (848 pages). It talks at length about the 1920s and 1930s, and how Europe itself was proceeding toward WW II. To be honest, it's covering a number of nations (not just Germany), but it's a well written book, with a vast landscape.
7. Debit and Credit by Gustav Freytag. First, you need to note that it was originally written in 1855 by Freytag. There is an English translation from the past decade (via E-books), and a paperback version. It is fictional (it's the only fictional work that I will advocate on German history). From 1850 to 1900....it was the largest selling book on the German market. At some point, Freytag was considered like a national 'folk-hero' (getting his own statue in Wiesbaden), and being a key-speaker. The book is written in the form of Uncle Tom's Cabin, and drills down into the idea of never taking risks or gambling.
8. A Short History of the Weimar Republic by Colin Storer (2013). Roughly 250 pages, and easily read in a month. It covers the 14-year history of the Weimar Republic, and the political chaos of the period. If you hate politics, then the book is not for you. However, it does detail the major players of the 1920s, and the things fell apart, and reshaped it to be Hitler's 'toy'.
9. Weimar Culture: The Outsider as an Insider, by Peter Gay (1968). Roughly 250 pages, easily read in a few weeks. This book talks at length about the media landscape, entertainment, and 'fun-factor' that existed after WW I. It's a unique period in Germany, and just about everything that would have been forbidden in the Kaiser era....was now allowed.
10. A Mighty Fortress, by Steven Ozment. From 2005, around 250 pages. It's a decent introduction to the Roman era of Germany.
Some other suggestions:
- Germany: A History, by Francis Russell (230-odd pages, 2015). A history professor-type book and lays out the landscape.
- Mein Kampf, by Hitler. First, it's an awful difficult book (actually two volumes) to get through, and if you hate political chatter, it's worthless. But if you want to understand the 'sales' point of Nationalist Socialism....it's probably a good starting point.
- Hitler Ascent, by Volker Ullrich (1040 page, 2017). Lots of research, and great landscape, but it's a book that would require a minimum of two months to read. He covers the whole period (1889-1945).
The Receipt Story
If you arrived in Germany and walked around for a year, one obvious thing would stand out. Whenever you stepped into a bakery, cafe, doner-shop, ice-cream shop, or Kiosk, the odds are like 90-percent that after you'd bought your 'stuff'....there was no receipt. Frankly, you'd say that you didn't care.
Well....unless something shifts in the next couple of days....come January, they MUST print out a receipt.
So opens up this big news item that started on Friday....where the Minister of Economics sent a note to the Minister of Finance, and asked for consideration of dumping this new rule.
What's this all about?
No one is saying that for decades that the cafes, bakeries, or Kiosks cheated on reporting their income, but the suggestion is strongly there. By forcing a receipt out of them, they are reporting via their cash register system....the cash-flow.
My personal suspicion is that come the end of 2020....there's going to be a minimum of two billion extra Euro in the tax revenue pot. I also suspect that everyone in the cafe, bakery, or kiosk operations....will be raising their prices by 3 to 5 percent, to make up for the 'loss' of income.
Is the Minister of Economics (Pete Altmaier, CDU) correct to ask for taking down this rule? That's a pro-business measure that he's suggesting. He says the receipts aren't worth the hassle, when you are there to buy a two-scoop cup of ice cream, or a cake and coffee.
It's an odd topic and a odd confrontation. The Minister of Finance simply wants more tax revenue money in the pot, and he knows that some folks aren't being honest over income.
Well....unless something shifts in the next couple of days....come January, they MUST print out a receipt.
So opens up this big news item that started on Friday....where the Minister of Economics sent a note to the Minister of Finance, and asked for consideration of dumping this new rule.
What's this all about?
No one is saying that for decades that the cafes, bakeries, or Kiosks cheated on reporting their income, but the suggestion is strongly there. By forcing a receipt out of them, they are reporting via their cash register system....the cash-flow.
My personal suspicion is that come the end of 2020....there's going to be a minimum of two billion extra Euro in the tax revenue pot. I also suspect that everyone in the cafe, bakery, or kiosk operations....will be raising their prices by 3 to 5 percent, to make up for the 'loss' of income.
Is the Minister of Economics (Pete Altmaier, CDU) correct to ask for taking down this rule? That's a pro-business measure that he's suggesting. He says the receipts aren't worth the hassle, when you are there to buy a two-scoop cup of ice cream, or a cake and coffee.
It's an odd topic and a odd confrontation. The Minister of Finance simply wants more tax revenue money in the pot, and he knows that some folks aren't being honest over income.
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Journalism Draws Criticism
Both ZDF and ARD (public TV networks of Germany) will make the strong effort to say they are not state-run, and not broadcasting propaganda. It's now almost daily that they go to some minor defense of their reporting or positions.
So this morning....ZDF's journalist...Marietta Slomka got into the news herself. Focus tells the basic story.
Slomka opened up a piece on the late ZDF news (Friday night)....talking over the murder of a an individual in a Berlin park.....by possible Russian 'gentlemen (hint: KGB). The quote: “How much the world has changed can also be seen from the fact that Russia and the United States are now almost equally difficult. Good: The Americans don't let unwanted people get killed in Berlin parks - as far as you know. "
This opened up serious criticism by both journalists (non-TV types) and political figures. As one guy from the FDP Party said.....it's on the borderline of being disinformation.
This Berlin park killing? I essayed this piece about a week after it occurred (26 August 2019 was my essay). At the time, and via what the cops felt about the murder....the suggestion of a contract killing (non-sanctioned and likely not involving the KGB) was the direction that the police were talking about.
How did this fall into a government-run 'hit' as suggested by the ZDF journalist? That's really more of a mystery at this point, and how far the news journalists have taken this murder in a park. Oddly enough, with all the hyped-up coverage in the past two weeks....it might be interesting to note that the dead guy is a Russian (not a German).
So this morning....ZDF's journalist...Marietta Slomka got into the news herself. Focus tells the basic story.
Slomka opened up a piece on the late ZDF news (Friday night)....talking over the murder of a an individual in a Berlin park.....by possible Russian 'gentlemen (hint: KGB). The quote: “How much the world has changed can also be seen from the fact that Russia and the United States are now almost equally difficult. Good: The Americans don't let unwanted people get killed in Berlin parks - as far as you know. "
This opened up serious criticism by both journalists (non-TV types) and political figures. As one guy from the FDP Party said.....it's on the borderline of being disinformation.
This Berlin park killing? I essayed this piece about a week after it occurred (26 August 2019 was my essay). At the time, and via what the cops felt about the murder....the suggestion of a contract killing (non-sanctioned and likely not involving the KGB) was the direction that the police were talking about.
How did this fall into a government-run 'hit' as suggested by the ZDF journalist? That's really more of a mystery at this point, and how far the news journalists have taken this murder in a park. Oddly enough, with all the hyped-up coverage in the past two weeks....it might be interesting to note that the dead guy is a Russian (not a German).
Deportations Story
It's not something that you sit and think much about.
If a German judge has signed off on a deportation order, the German police (typically state police) are the one who are given the order and effect the deportation. In simple terms, they are going to escort the guy, gal, or family back to their home-country.
N-TV (commercial German news) brought up this topic today.
For 2019, up until October.....11,480 'civil-servants' were sent on orders to deport someone back to their home-country. This came up as a statistic because the Linke Party asked in the Parliament structure....what the number was for 2019.
Comparing numbers? For all of 2018, it was just under 11,000....so they are upwards on a trend setting presently.
Part of this story, if you read through everything....more cops are now being sent on each trip....to ensure safety and security. The cops were a bit descriptive in the increased security...noting that they faced the possibility of hitting, scratching, biting, etc. It's not exactly a duty that you'd be happy carrying out.
They also point out that there are increasing numbers requiring transport to Africa or Asia, which means an extended flight. I would take a guess that they will end up spending a minimum of 24 hours in the country, before the return flight occurs.
Cost factor? No one says much, but if you figure an extended flight or trip, two to three escorts, the tickets, hotel costs....it's probably over 5,000 Euro per episode.
If a German judge has signed off on a deportation order, the German police (typically state police) are the one who are given the order and effect the deportation. In simple terms, they are going to escort the guy, gal, or family back to their home-country.
N-TV (commercial German news) brought up this topic today.
For 2019, up until October.....11,480 'civil-servants' were sent on orders to deport someone back to their home-country. This came up as a statistic because the Linke Party asked in the Parliament structure....what the number was for 2019.
Comparing numbers? For all of 2018, it was just under 11,000....so they are upwards on a trend setting presently.
Part of this story, if you read through everything....more cops are now being sent on each trip....to ensure safety and security. The cops were a bit descriptive in the increased security...noting that they faced the possibility of hitting, scratching, biting, etc. It's not exactly a duty that you'd be happy carrying out.
They also point out that there are increasing numbers requiring transport to Africa or Asia, which means an extended flight. I would take a guess that they will end up spending a minimum of 24 hours in the country, before the return flight occurs.
Cost factor? No one says much, but if you figure an extended flight or trip, two to three escorts, the tickets, hotel costs....it's probably over 5,000 Euro per episode.
The Tax That Won't Occur
With the change in SPD Party leadership here in Germany in the past couple of weeks....a strong hint was put forward by the new leadership....that the party needs to push for higher C02 taxes.
ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) went out and polled the German public on this question.
The idea is that you'd tack on additional taxes to gas and diesel to achieve the right numbers....in simple terms, you'd convince people of the pain to be suffered with each tank of fuel.
59-percent of the public said they didn't want any additional taxes put upon fuel. Only 38-percent said 'sure'.
Seventy-percent of those polled said skepticism was a big issue, and doubted that the public would buy into the behavior change required.
The odds that this C02 tax will occur? Presently, with the Merkel coalition? I'd give it very low odds. Maybe after 2021, with a Green Party Chancellor.....it might happen. But as the poll kinda hinted....little will occur in terms of behavioral activity changing.
ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) went out and polled the German public on this question.
The idea is that you'd tack on additional taxes to gas and diesel to achieve the right numbers....in simple terms, you'd convince people of the pain to be suffered with each tank of fuel.
59-percent of the public said they didn't want any additional taxes put upon fuel. Only 38-percent said 'sure'.
Seventy-percent of those polled said skepticism was a big issue, and doubted that the public would buy into the behavior change required.
The odds that this C02 tax will occur? Presently, with the Merkel coalition? I'd give it very low odds. Maybe after 2021, with a Green Party Chancellor.....it might happen. But as the poll kinda hinted....little will occur in terms of behavioral activity changing.
This Brit Election
There are two interesting features of the British election that occurred.
First, Boris Johnson didn't really get that many more votes than in 2017 with PM May (roughly 300,000 extra votes). Total for Johnson was 13,966,000 here in 2019.
Labour (with Corbyn)? They achieved 10,295,000 roughly. Back in 2017, the same party achieved 12,878,000. So they kinda lost 2,300,000 votes. Yep, twenty percent.
The Liberal Democrats in this election, they pulled near 3,696,000 votes.....that's 1,200,000 additional votes over 2017. The Labour voters? It would appear that they felt lost with the message and brand, and flipped to the Liberal Democrats.
The second feature....Johnson is firmly fixed now until May of 2024. He'll enter BREXIT, the after-period, and have plenty of time to settle upon a national message and theme. Labour? They will select a new figure to lead the party and likely go through a re-building process.
Does this election really mean anything? Most Brits will say (at least on camera) that this was about BREXIT, and little else. There were some discussions over jobs, education, medical care, infrastructure....but they were all secondary to BREXIT.
First, Boris Johnson didn't really get that many more votes than in 2017 with PM May (roughly 300,000 extra votes). Total for Johnson was 13,966,000 here in 2019.
Labour (with Corbyn)? They achieved 10,295,000 roughly. Back in 2017, the same party achieved 12,878,000. So they kinda lost 2,300,000 votes. Yep, twenty percent.
The Liberal Democrats in this election, they pulled near 3,696,000 votes.....that's 1,200,000 additional votes over 2017. The Labour voters? It would appear that they felt lost with the message and brand, and flipped to the Liberal Democrats.
The second feature....Johnson is firmly fixed now until May of 2024. He'll enter BREXIT, the after-period, and have plenty of time to settle upon a national message and theme. Labour? They will select a new figure to lead the party and likely go through a re-building process.
Does this election really mean anything? Most Brits will say (at least on camera) that this was about BREXIT, and little else. There were some discussions over jobs, education, medical care, infrastructure....but they were all secondary to BREXIT.
Friday, December 13, 2019
Student Petition Story
There's a petition that was presented by Hessen students, and it brings up a curious dilemma. HR (the Hessen public TV network) presented the basic story.
In the months of May/June, and after the summer vacation period....there's air conditioning in German schools, and it can get miserably hot. I say 'can', because you might have 20 days in a school year where the outdoor mid-day temperature might rise up to around 28-plus degrees (82 degrees F). You might even find five to ten days where it's 32-plus degrees (89 degrees F).
So this petition lists out what the kids want the political folks and school administrators to do.....limit school hours to 30 minutes of learning if it reaches 26 degrees or above. They also want free liquids (meaning bottled water) if the temperature gets above 24 degrees C (75 degrees F). Curiously, the kids even asked that homework be 'dismissed' if the temperature was 26 degrees C (79 degrees F).
Odds of any of this happening?
Here's the thing, the bulk of school days are either cool or reasonable (probably 90-percent). This last four weeks prior to summer vacation, and the four weeks after summer vacation? This is the potential zone where it could be awful hot in a classroom after 11 AM.
I doubt that the schools will agree to free bottled water, with most suggesting to bring some cup from home and just fill it with plain tap water.
As for the excuse to do zero homework? That probably won't wash either.
I had to take a German class once....in the midst of August.....and the heat in the room got up around 34 C (94 degrees F). We marginally made it to the last hour.
In the months of May/June, and after the summer vacation period....there's air conditioning in German schools, and it can get miserably hot. I say 'can', because you might have 20 days in a school year where the outdoor mid-day temperature might rise up to around 28-plus degrees (82 degrees F). You might even find five to ten days where it's 32-plus degrees (89 degrees F).
So this petition lists out what the kids want the political folks and school administrators to do.....limit school hours to 30 minutes of learning if it reaches 26 degrees or above. They also want free liquids (meaning bottled water) if the temperature gets above 24 degrees C (75 degrees F). Curiously, the kids even asked that homework be 'dismissed' if the temperature was 26 degrees C (79 degrees F).
Odds of any of this happening?
Here's the thing, the bulk of school days are either cool or reasonable (probably 90-percent). This last four weeks prior to summer vacation, and the four weeks after summer vacation? This is the potential zone where it could be awful hot in a classroom after 11 AM.
I doubt that the schools will agree to free bottled water, with most suggesting to bring some cup from home and just fill it with plain tap water.
As for the excuse to do zero homework? That probably won't wash either.
I had to take a German class once....in the midst of August.....and the heat in the room got up around 34 C (94 degrees F). We marginally made it to the last hour.
New German Gun Law Draft
This morning, via ZDF (public German TV, Channel Two)....the topic of gun laws in Germany came up.
The Bundestag is reviewing a draft law, which probably will pass (via the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition).
The contents? There are three chief items in the draft:
1. For certain firearms, the size of the clip or magazine will detailed out. The present law? Sports weapons are mandated to have magazines that are a max of ten rounds. The new size? It's not openly discussed, but I would imagine it's in the range of six to seven rounds.
2. A national database would be created to trace all firearms in the country. Presently....it's a community or state control system. You'd go down to the local police station to detail your purchase of x-weapon, and they'd add it to their data card or spreadsheet. The police in your region and state....know precisely how many weapons exist and who controls them (via their licensing method). That data existing at the national level (presently)? No.
3. Finally, if you manufacture weapons or deal in weapons....you'd have to go and report where each weapon went, and it's present 'location' or 'owner'. Under this idea, if you manufactured 3,000 shotguns this year, you'd detail out the 300-odd gun-dealers who received the weapons. The gun-dealers, as they traded or sold the 3,000 shotguns, would add to this database.
Problems with these improvements? Lets be honest about the clip or magazine requirement....you could easily cross the border and buy an entire box of a dozen 15-round magazines in Czech, and drive across the border with them.
In the case of the national database, it becomes a data-mining tool for whatever political party has in some agenda. If they think too many hunting rifles exist....they can document the precise number and just say those will go away via some government program. You can add to the database problem.....criminals and terrorists don't register their weapons.
The necessity driving the draft law? Gun violations simply continue. Oddly enough, if you follow the news items and police blotter comments.....the majority are weapons which aren't registered, and picked up via guys who aren't licensed. So that trend will simply continue on, and this draft law has almost zero effect.
Finally, you come to the manufacturing reports. What the government will be able to do....within a year or two...is establish how many weapons are sold in Germany, through the EU countries (legit sales) and the number which go to beyond the EU border. In simple terms, you start to establish behaviors which you might (say in five years) make another law which says sales beyond the German or EU border is forbidden (like hunting rifle sales into Canada or the US).
I wholeheartedly agree, there is a point where some basic gun laws have an effect. Beyond that point, the effect....is useless and without much gained.
Update: Saturday. There were two other pieces in this draft that have been noted by ARD today. One....that hunters (with a license) will be able to more easily buy a silencer for their rifles. Second....night-vision goggles used to be fairly difficult to purchase, have regulations added that will lessen the 'hassle' (if you are a licensed hunter). So you will probably start to see more hunters spending a significant sum of money to acquire the night-vision capability.
Added as well....some wording which will create 'safe-zones' (deemed to cover 'busy areas', schools and university campus areas), where absolutely no knives will be accepted. A present problem? On school grounds and university areas? No. But if you made 'busy areas' into train station area, or shopping district....this might be a recent trend that that the police have seen problems.
I'll note here that Wiesbaden went out on it's own, and made a regulation about an entire district of central town (shopping district) and it became a 'safe-zone', where the fine for carrying a knife is significant and potentially two months of a normal salary.
The Bundestag is reviewing a draft law, which probably will pass (via the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition).
The contents? There are three chief items in the draft:
1. For certain firearms, the size of the clip or magazine will detailed out. The present law? Sports weapons are mandated to have magazines that are a max of ten rounds. The new size? It's not openly discussed, but I would imagine it's in the range of six to seven rounds.
2. A national database would be created to trace all firearms in the country. Presently....it's a community or state control system. You'd go down to the local police station to detail your purchase of x-weapon, and they'd add it to their data card or spreadsheet. The police in your region and state....know precisely how many weapons exist and who controls them (via their licensing method). That data existing at the national level (presently)? No.
3. Finally, if you manufacture weapons or deal in weapons....you'd have to go and report where each weapon went, and it's present 'location' or 'owner'. Under this idea, if you manufactured 3,000 shotguns this year, you'd detail out the 300-odd gun-dealers who received the weapons. The gun-dealers, as they traded or sold the 3,000 shotguns, would add to this database.
Problems with these improvements? Lets be honest about the clip or magazine requirement....you could easily cross the border and buy an entire box of a dozen 15-round magazines in Czech, and drive across the border with them.
In the case of the national database, it becomes a data-mining tool for whatever political party has in some agenda. If they think too many hunting rifles exist....they can document the precise number and just say those will go away via some government program. You can add to the database problem.....criminals and terrorists don't register their weapons.
The necessity driving the draft law? Gun violations simply continue. Oddly enough, if you follow the news items and police blotter comments.....the majority are weapons which aren't registered, and picked up via guys who aren't licensed. So that trend will simply continue on, and this draft law has almost zero effect.
Finally, you come to the manufacturing reports. What the government will be able to do....within a year or two...is establish how many weapons are sold in Germany, through the EU countries (legit sales) and the number which go to beyond the EU border. In simple terms, you start to establish behaviors which you might (say in five years) make another law which says sales beyond the German or EU border is forbidden (like hunting rifle sales into Canada or the US).
I wholeheartedly agree, there is a point where some basic gun laws have an effect. Beyond that point, the effect....is useless and without much gained.
Update: Saturday. There were two other pieces in this draft that have been noted by ARD today. One....that hunters (with a license) will be able to more easily buy a silencer for their rifles. Second....night-vision goggles used to be fairly difficult to purchase, have regulations added that will lessen the 'hassle' (if you are a licensed hunter). So you will probably start to see more hunters spending a significant sum of money to acquire the night-vision capability.
Added as well....some wording which will create 'safe-zones' (deemed to cover 'busy areas', schools and university campus areas), where absolutely no knives will be accepted. A present problem? On school grounds and university areas? No. But if you made 'busy areas' into train station area, or shopping district....this might be a recent trend that that the police have seen problems.
I'll note here that Wiesbaden went out on it's own, and made a regulation about an entire district of central town (shopping district) and it became a 'safe-zone', where the fine for carrying a knife is significant and potentially two months of a normal salary.
Are There 10,000 Apartments in Frankfurt Empty?
Oddly enough, this topic came up via HR (our Hessen public TV network).
Let's start with the population of Frankfurt, 746,000 residents (2018 numbers).
The city of Frankfurt will tell you that there are roughly 393,000 apartments or residences within the city limits. It's not an official number, which is kinda funny how they word this. Around 15 years ago, the city leadership (then under the CDU Party) made up a rule that official counting or reporting on residences was banned. You can discuss this at length, but you also have to wonder....is the city mission to know the status of each residence....even if privately owned?
So various groups have studied the city structure....talked to occupants and groups, and they believe up to around 10,000 apartments in the city sit empty.
Why?
Part of the reason given, though it's not absolute fact....revolves around property speculation. If you owned a building with 16 apartments, and you had started renovation five years ago (getting people to leave then).....maybe you are adding two or three years onto the schedule, and intend to sell as condo-devices, rather than renting out, and hope the added time will push the prices up further.
Some of this however....might get into court cases where estate lawyers are trying to sort out arguments over which relative gets which property. A lot of older Germans got into apartment speculation back in the 1970s, and bought a dozen which they rented out, and had a great income situation as they retired.
You also get into some cases where people are tired of negative tenets and would rather just leave a property empty for a year or two.
Where is this going to lead onto? One might speculate and figure that the SPD-Green city council will make up a rule that reporting of occupied status or renovation will become mandatory. After that, they might make up another rule that you can't leave an apartment empty for more than 12 months.
If the 10,000 number exists.....is this part of the lack of housing problem often discussed in Frankfurt? Maybe, but lets be honest....you could go and add onto the 393,000 apartments and structures....maybe another 25,000, and you'd still have residents complaining of affordable housing.
On top of this....no one is saying what the 10,000 empty structures would rent for, and you might find that the bulk of them require 2,000 Euro a month, which is way beyond 'affordable'.
Let's start with the population of Frankfurt, 746,000 residents (2018 numbers).
The city of Frankfurt will tell you that there are roughly 393,000 apartments or residences within the city limits. It's not an official number, which is kinda funny how they word this. Around 15 years ago, the city leadership (then under the CDU Party) made up a rule that official counting or reporting on residences was banned. You can discuss this at length, but you also have to wonder....is the city mission to know the status of each residence....even if privately owned?
So various groups have studied the city structure....talked to occupants and groups, and they believe up to around 10,000 apartments in the city sit empty.
Why?
Part of the reason given, though it's not absolute fact....revolves around property speculation. If you owned a building with 16 apartments, and you had started renovation five years ago (getting people to leave then).....maybe you are adding two or three years onto the schedule, and intend to sell as condo-devices, rather than renting out, and hope the added time will push the prices up further.
Some of this however....might get into court cases where estate lawyers are trying to sort out arguments over which relative gets which property. A lot of older Germans got into apartment speculation back in the 1970s, and bought a dozen which they rented out, and had a great income situation as they retired.
You also get into some cases where people are tired of negative tenets and would rather just leave a property empty for a year or two.
Where is this going to lead onto? One might speculate and figure that the SPD-Green city council will make up a rule that reporting of occupied status or renovation will become mandatory. After that, they might make up another rule that you can't leave an apartment empty for more than 12 months.
If the 10,000 number exists.....is this part of the lack of housing problem often discussed in Frankfurt? Maybe, but lets be honest....you could go and add onto the 393,000 apartments and structures....maybe another 25,000, and you'd still have residents complaining of affordable housing.
On top of this....no one is saying what the 10,000 empty structures would rent for, and you might find that the bulk of them require 2,000 Euro a month, which is way beyond 'affordable'.
Thursday, December 12, 2019
The Topic of a Wealth Tax
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a survey and found that 3 in 4 Germans were open to the idea.....meaning just a quarter of the population were against it. The chief party pushing a wealth tax? The SPD Party.
The basis of the wealth tax idea? The SPD folks have a plan which is in the public eye....taxing assets (meaning property, houses, boats, investment accounts, gold, diamonds, etc) that you own....with a value of two million euros up with a one percent tax. There would be a gradual increase.....up to anyone over the value of one billion Euro....with your tax set at two percent.
The SPD folks figure they'd restock the spending revenue pot, and really be in a clear position to give back to the communities and people.
So the history of this? In Europe, it's not that great. In 1990, twelve European countries had it.....today, just four. Why the retreat? These efforts are generally designed along a route where you (the rich guy) realize the implications and basically give up....meaning you sell out, and move to some place without the issues. You end up taking your cash and wealth with you.
The four remaining with a wealth tax? Switzerland, Spain, Belgium and Norway. Yes, even Sweden dumped theirs.
The previous attempt in Germany to run a wealth tax? Well, this gets to an interesting point. This highly constructed wealth tax vehicle (you can imagine Germans devising this) built various views of what was wealth tax acceptable, and what was not. So some 'pass-through' situations were developed. Naturally, the Constitutional Court system got involved and said 'no'.....everyone suffers at the same rate, or you get rid of the 'pass-through' situations.
The basic issue that will be the driving force is that capitalism has created an inequality and you intend to resolve this...by redistribution.
The problems?
You can start with capital flight. Those affected will eventually realize the impact....sell their property or companies, shift their money around, and leave the country. The nice upscale house worth 10-million Euro? It'll be entrusted to a foundation as a charity operation.
The second issue is that you end up with politicians who curiously fall into this wealth 'trap' and get kinda frustrated that this capital they earned as a lawyer or accountant, or were left by dad....is also falling into the wealth tax pot. They end up writing little escape paths, to avoid taxation. This ends up being discussed and identifies you as 'corrupted'.
Then you come to the issue of taking the money and just handing it over to the most deserving. The governments that do this wealth tax situation....typically want the money spread around beyond the needy people....so instead of picking out the eight-million most deserving Germans who need 1,200 Euro a month more....you end up with various programs and money ends up paying for railway bridges, national parks, autobahn rest-stops, and university studies over Peruvian bats. Even the billionaire folks will point at the ten-thousand projects and just start laughing.
You would think that once you establish the new revenue pot with 25 billion Euro....it'd be a simple task to write the code, and just say those making less than 25,000 Euro a year will get added money....straight away, and no waste of tax revenue. The extra programs, the train station renovation projects, the 14-million Euro autobahn bridges, and the new Berlin Airport terminal building? It'd just come from the regular pot of taxation.
What'll happen with the German wealth tax idea? It'll linger there, and be a minor discussion topic for the 2021 national election. Here's the curious thing....if the SPD Party is the only one pushing this....and they remain at 12-to-14 percent on polling, then the idea will continue to linger there. I'm not giving it that much of a chance to advance into law.
The basis of the wealth tax idea? The SPD folks have a plan which is in the public eye....taxing assets (meaning property, houses, boats, investment accounts, gold, diamonds, etc) that you own....with a value of two million euros up with a one percent tax. There would be a gradual increase.....up to anyone over the value of one billion Euro....with your tax set at two percent.
The SPD folks figure they'd restock the spending revenue pot, and really be in a clear position to give back to the communities and people.
So the history of this? In Europe, it's not that great. In 1990, twelve European countries had it.....today, just four. Why the retreat? These efforts are generally designed along a route where you (the rich guy) realize the implications and basically give up....meaning you sell out, and move to some place without the issues. You end up taking your cash and wealth with you.
The four remaining with a wealth tax? Switzerland, Spain, Belgium and Norway. Yes, even Sweden dumped theirs.
The previous attempt in Germany to run a wealth tax? Well, this gets to an interesting point. This highly constructed wealth tax vehicle (you can imagine Germans devising this) built various views of what was wealth tax acceptable, and what was not. So some 'pass-through' situations were developed. Naturally, the Constitutional Court system got involved and said 'no'.....everyone suffers at the same rate, or you get rid of the 'pass-through' situations.
The basic issue that will be the driving force is that capitalism has created an inequality and you intend to resolve this...by redistribution.
The problems?
You can start with capital flight. Those affected will eventually realize the impact....sell their property or companies, shift their money around, and leave the country. The nice upscale house worth 10-million Euro? It'll be entrusted to a foundation as a charity operation.
The second issue is that you end up with politicians who curiously fall into this wealth 'trap' and get kinda frustrated that this capital they earned as a lawyer or accountant, or were left by dad....is also falling into the wealth tax pot. They end up writing little escape paths, to avoid taxation. This ends up being discussed and identifies you as 'corrupted'.
Then you come to the issue of taking the money and just handing it over to the most deserving. The governments that do this wealth tax situation....typically want the money spread around beyond the needy people....so instead of picking out the eight-million most deserving Germans who need 1,200 Euro a month more....you end up with various programs and money ends up paying for railway bridges, national parks, autobahn rest-stops, and university studies over Peruvian bats. Even the billionaire folks will point at the ten-thousand projects and just start laughing.
You would think that once you establish the new revenue pot with 25 billion Euro....it'd be a simple task to write the code, and just say those making less than 25,000 Euro a year will get added money....straight away, and no waste of tax revenue. The extra programs, the train station renovation projects, the 14-million Euro autobahn bridges, and the new Berlin Airport terminal building? It'd just come from the regular pot of taxation.
What'll happen with the German wealth tax idea? It'll linger there, and be a minor discussion topic for the 2021 national election. Here's the curious thing....if the SPD Party is the only one pushing this....and they remain at 12-to-14 percent on polling, then the idea will continue to linger there. I'm not giving it that much of a chance to advance into law.
TV Show Story
German public TV (Channel Two, ZDF) has picked up an unusual method to counter or persuade the general public. The TV show is called 'Moma vor Ort' (Moma on Site is the loose translation). It's a morning show.....part of Morganmagazine, and the basic idea is that the crew will pack up and visit 'hot-spots' around Germany and talk to 'regular' Germans and local politicians.
What you can generally say is that via mass media and social media....around two years ago, it was apparent that politicians and local residents were no longer connected in Germany.
You can put some blame on the rapid fire evolution of social media, but some blame goes upon the political strategies of parties and how they felt they were working on public concerns. The news media (public TV journalists) might have felt that they were out-of-step as well.
So you look at the device....Moma vor Ort. Here is a group of local residents and they are asked how they feel, or what the chief complaint is. Somewhere in the middle of this is the ZDF moderator, maybe a local journalist or two to explain how such-and-such problem developed, and it's special features, and then you have the political guys (differing parties) to talk about the resolutions or repairs required.
The problems with this? I would go and suggest three fundamental problems:
1. It's basically a morning TV show (Monday through Friday) and if you were looking at the audience....it's mostly housewives (who don't work) or retirees.
2. There's a fair amount of skepticism among younger Germans about public TV, and the suggestion of propaganda (whether deserved or not is your own personal debate).
3.. Finally, you come to this odd prospective....whatever problem they are focusing upon in this one community (say Dresden, or Jena, or Trier)....it's likely to be a problem that only revolves that one community, and the rest of the viewing 'nation' won't really care.
But here's the ZDF selling point....it's got to present some image that it cares about the general public, and that talking about a problem might help to avert serious political deficiencies (like the death spiral of the SPD Party presently). Lets be honest here....both the CDU and SPD political operations are having image problems with the general public.
What you can generally say is that via mass media and social media....around two years ago, it was apparent that politicians and local residents were no longer connected in Germany.
You can put some blame on the rapid fire evolution of social media, but some blame goes upon the political strategies of parties and how they felt they were working on public concerns. The news media (public TV journalists) might have felt that they were out-of-step as well.
So you look at the device....Moma vor Ort. Here is a group of local residents and they are asked how they feel, or what the chief complaint is. Somewhere in the middle of this is the ZDF moderator, maybe a local journalist or two to explain how such-and-such problem developed, and it's special features, and then you have the political guys (differing parties) to talk about the resolutions or repairs required.
The problems with this? I would go and suggest three fundamental problems:
1. It's basically a morning TV show (Monday through Friday) and if you were looking at the audience....it's mostly housewives (who don't work) or retirees.
2. There's a fair amount of skepticism among younger Germans about public TV, and the suggestion of propaganda (whether deserved or not is your own personal debate).
3.. Finally, you come to this odd prospective....whatever problem they are focusing upon in this one community (say Dresden, or Jena, or Trier)....it's likely to be a problem that only revolves that one community, and the rest of the viewing 'nation' won't really care.
But here's the ZDF selling point....it's got to present some image that it cares about the general public, and that talking about a problem might help to avert serious political deficiencies (like the death spiral of the SPD Party presently). Lets be honest here....both the CDU and SPD political operations are having image problems with the general public.
Poverty Discussion
It was an interesting piece last night on ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two), and centered on poverty in Germany.
Roughly 12.8-million Germans are considered in a poverty state at present....around 15-percent of the population.
The majority or location? That gets to an interesting topic. On their site, they put the map up and it's obvious that Bavaria has the least of the issue (11.7-percent), and the state of Mecklenburg (way up on the NE coast) has the bulk....near 21-percent of the public.
So here's the odd factor....for the past decade, if you follow the data....the economy of Germany overall grew. No one can complain about that fact. But at the same time.....poverty grew.
The discussion here now becomes....if jobs and a robust economy aren't part of the factors to prevent poverty....then what is? The suggestion is that you will have to tax more, and redistribute capital....to lessen poverty, and jobs simply aren't part of this equation or the answer ahead.
For a lot of Germans, economists, political figures, and think-tanks....this is going to create a serious problem on the path ahead.
The question now is....can you create some type of taxation game or redistribution situation, where the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg are given less sums of money, and the three states in serious poverty (Mecklenburg, Sachsen, and NRW) are bumped up on redistribution? And if you bumped the poverty folks up....would their lives improve?
A lot of this discussion centers around education, job-training, and a robust atmosphere for jobs to exist. Logic held (maybe going back to even the era after WW II....say the 1950s) that if jobs existed and decent pay was part of the system, then poverty wouldn't be a factor. Are we now admitting that the standard rules in place for seventy years won't work?
A lot of this discussion will go back to the Konigstein 'key'....a formula devised devised in 1949 to funnel national funding to the German states under a 'fairness' umbrella. The factor was a ratio of sorts....involving the tax revenue that you generated as a state, and the population of your state. The more the revenue generated or the more added to your population....the better your circumstances within the 'key' structure.
So to bring up this entire redistribution chatter......you have to bring up the Konigstein 'key' and admit it's faulty nature, and basically throw out the ratio of tax revenue and population. The odds of the sixteen states agreeing to this? ZERO.
Just in the past two years, Hessen, Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg went to court and argued that they were putting billions into the national pot of tax revenue, and not getting a fair scale of the money back. To settle this matter and avoid the court messing up things....the federal government agreed to some slight variation....giving the three slightly more (just enough to make them go away).
Here's the thing, which you have to go and consider.....as much as you see Germany as one single nation....it's really a federated system with sixteen states, and they simply aren't equal....nor were they ever equal. It's the plain blunt truth.
Bavaria, Hessen and Baden-Wurttemberg could go and exit the federation today....become their own country, and probably have the highest revenue generating system of any country in Europe, and the remaining 13 German states would quickly sink and be at a lesser point.
This poverty discussion isn't about to go away, but it lacks any path to changing or correcting itself.
Roughly 12.8-million Germans are considered in a poverty state at present....around 15-percent of the population.
The majority or location? That gets to an interesting topic. On their site, they put the map up and it's obvious that Bavaria has the least of the issue (11.7-percent), and the state of Mecklenburg (way up on the NE coast) has the bulk....near 21-percent of the public.
So here's the odd factor....for the past decade, if you follow the data....the economy of Germany overall grew. No one can complain about that fact. But at the same time.....poverty grew.
The discussion here now becomes....if jobs and a robust economy aren't part of the factors to prevent poverty....then what is? The suggestion is that you will have to tax more, and redistribute capital....to lessen poverty, and jobs simply aren't part of this equation or the answer ahead.
For a lot of Germans, economists, political figures, and think-tanks....this is going to create a serious problem on the path ahead.
The question now is....can you create some type of taxation game or redistribution situation, where the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg are given less sums of money, and the three states in serious poverty (Mecklenburg, Sachsen, and NRW) are bumped up on redistribution? And if you bumped the poverty folks up....would their lives improve?
A lot of this discussion centers around education, job-training, and a robust atmosphere for jobs to exist. Logic held (maybe going back to even the era after WW II....say the 1950s) that if jobs existed and decent pay was part of the system, then poverty wouldn't be a factor. Are we now admitting that the standard rules in place for seventy years won't work?
A lot of this discussion will go back to the Konigstein 'key'....a formula devised devised in 1949 to funnel national funding to the German states under a 'fairness' umbrella. The factor was a ratio of sorts....involving the tax revenue that you generated as a state, and the population of your state. The more the revenue generated or the more added to your population....the better your circumstances within the 'key' structure.
So to bring up this entire redistribution chatter......you have to bring up the Konigstein 'key' and admit it's faulty nature, and basically throw out the ratio of tax revenue and population. The odds of the sixteen states agreeing to this? ZERO.
Just in the past two years, Hessen, Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg went to court and argued that they were putting billions into the national pot of tax revenue, and not getting a fair scale of the money back. To settle this matter and avoid the court messing up things....the federal government agreed to some slight variation....giving the three slightly more (just enough to make them go away).
Here's the thing, which you have to go and consider.....as much as you see Germany as one single nation....it's really a federated system with sixteen states, and they simply aren't equal....nor were they ever equal. It's the plain blunt truth.
Bavaria, Hessen and Baden-Wurttemberg could go and exit the federation today....become their own country, and probably have the highest revenue generating system of any country in Europe, and the remaining 13 German states would quickly sink and be at a lesser point.
This poverty discussion isn't about to go away, but it lacks any path to changing or correcting itself.
Budgets and Numbers Story
This is a fact that I stumbled upon this morning, when looking at economic data for Germany since the early 1990s (since unification).
If you use TradingEconomics data, there's been a German budget 'surplus' for only seven years since the early 1990s. Oddly enough, since 2014, they've been on a roll, with consecutive year after year surplus money existing at the end of each year (I know, for most countries, it's near impossible).
Presently, as the numbers hold....the budget is amounting to roughly 1.2-percent of the GDP.
The budget for 2020? 362 billion Euro (about five billion higher than last year). The odds that the tax revenue collection will leave more in the pot than anticipated? Some Germans would suggest that.
Who gets the bulk of the money? Ministry of health and social aid.
What got turned down in this latest budget battle? Well, it's kind of an odd item to bring up but the Green Party wanted something called 'gender budgeting' to occur. They wanted the federal and state governments to provide data of their budgets and how it related to men, and women (separate buckets of money). Yes, it would have been an analytical vehicle to talk about gender equality in budget delivery. One can sit and laugh over the enormous amount of data collection required for this, but they were clearly serious and wanted fairness to prevail.
If you use TradingEconomics data, there's been a German budget 'surplus' for only seven years since the early 1990s. Oddly enough, since 2014, they've been on a roll, with consecutive year after year surplus money existing at the end of each year (I know, for most countries, it's near impossible).
Presently, as the numbers hold....the budget is amounting to roughly 1.2-percent of the GDP.
The budget for 2020? 362 billion Euro (about five billion higher than last year). The odds that the tax revenue collection will leave more in the pot than anticipated? Some Germans would suggest that.
Who gets the bulk of the money? Ministry of health and social aid.
What got turned down in this latest budget battle? Well, it's kind of an odd item to bring up but the Green Party wanted something called 'gender budgeting' to occur. They wanted the federal and state governments to provide data of their budgets and how it related to men, and women (separate buckets of money). Yes, it would have been an analytical vehicle to talk about gender equality in budget delivery. One can sit and laugh over the enormous amount of data collection required for this, but they were clearly serious and wanted fairness to prevail.
Depression Story
N-TV (commercial German news network) brought this up in the AM today. There's been this research project by the Robert Koch Institute for the EU. It surveyed European countries and ranked them on the topic of medical depression.
I read the data, and it centered on the survey folks asking people how they felt.....which means that if a guy just had a bit of negativity or criticism in himself....that would lead to the number ranking. I'm not sure if that's the kind of yard-stick that you'd want to use.
But in this survey....Germany ranked second at the top, behind Luxembourg, with roughly 9-percent of Germans agreeing on their depressive mode.
A fair sized group surveyed? Well....over 250,000 Europeans.
Oddly, slightly more women, than men....on the German data....spoke up about this depressive state of mind (figure around 10 women for 7 guys).
The problems I see with this type of survey is that you could twist the numbers by having the survey do mostly rural Germans (who often seem happier) and avoid urbanized Germans (who seem more stressed out).
If you walked into a pub and talked to working class Germans, they'd tend to agree on various states of depression being a problem but a lot of this has to do with job expectations, stress in living in highly urbanized areas, and the economics of modern-day Germany.
The question here at the end....after you produce this document....now what? Mandatory psychological evaluations for all Germans? I kinda doubt that.
I read the data, and it centered on the survey folks asking people how they felt.....which means that if a guy just had a bit of negativity or criticism in himself....that would lead to the number ranking. I'm not sure if that's the kind of yard-stick that you'd want to use.
But in this survey....Germany ranked second at the top, behind Luxembourg, with roughly 9-percent of Germans agreeing on their depressive mode.
A fair sized group surveyed? Well....over 250,000 Europeans.
Oddly, slightly more women, than men....on the German data....spoke up about this depressive state of mind (figure around 10 women for 7 guys).
The problems I see with this type of survey is that you could twist the numbers by having the survey do mostly rural Germans (who often seem happier) and avoid urbanized Germans (who seem more stressed out).
If you walked into a pub and talked to working class Germans, they'd tend to agree on various states of depression being a problem but a lot of this has to do with job expectations, stress in living in highly urbanized areas, and the economics of modern-day Germany.
The question here at the end....after you produce this document....now what? Mandatory psychological evaluations for all Germans? I kinda doubt that.
Dresden Update
Last month, I essayed several pieces on the Dresden robbery....out of a museum, and high-value jewels. Professional crew was the best description of the folks who robbed it. So far, no arrests.
But yesterday, the news folks all mentioned this odd thing starting to become reality.
Cops have identified some equipment needed for this break-in, and it comes from a robbery in Munich (fire department building).
Cops also are now looking at a Berlin crime 'clan' that seems to be in the middle of this.
But yesterday, the news folks all mentioned this odd thing starting to become reality.
Cops have identified some equipment needed for this break-in, and it comes from a robbery in Munich (fire department building).
Cops also are now looking at a Berlin crime 'clan' that seems to be in the middle of this.
End of the Thomas Cook 'Saga'?
About two months ago, I essayed a good bit over the Thomas Cook travel agency, and their sudden bankruptcy.....causing thousands of Germans and Brits to be stuck in holiday locations and getting upsetting bills by the hotels and airlines. At that time, it was noted that the insurance fund to cover the losses by customers....was limited 110 million Euro, and figured to only cover maybe 20-to-25 percent of personal losses. This loss group included as well....people who had yet to start their trip (some were expecting to leave here in December), and zero chance of getting their money back.
Well, yesterday....the German government stood up and said that they would fund (from the tax revenue pocket) around 200 million Euro on top of the 110 million Euro from the insurance company.
Based on their calculations.....just about every single German customer will get 100-percent of their money back. How quick this occurs....is another matter, and I suspect that some won't see the money until mid-spring 2020.
Criticism? Well, this gets to an interesting point. A fair number of Germans are openly angry at the Merkel coalition for doing this because it comes out of the government pocket. These are the people who weren't on the Thomas Cook trips and didn't suffer through the travel mess. They are mostly mad because it's money that could have funded bridge renovation, housing for the homeless, or repaired schools.
I can understand that logic, but here's the one 'ace' in this deck....as Thomas Cook sold vacation packages....here in the middle was the German government collecting tax revenue. For decades, the government has collected a couple hundred million per year from the various sales tax events, and prospered because of Thomas Cook.
A last note....if you are Dutch or British....the deal doesn't extend to you....only only to German customers. It's going to put more pressure on the other governments to do the same thing.
Well, yesterday....the German government stood up and said that they would fund (from the tax revenue pocket) around 200 million Euro on top of the 110 million Euro from the insurance company.
Based on their calculations.....just about every single German customer will get 100-percent of their money back. How quick this occurs....is another matter, and I suspect that some won't see the money until mid-spring 2020.
Criticism? Well, this gets to an interesting point. A fair number of Germans are openly angry at the Merkel coalition for doing this because it comes out of the government pocket. These are the people who weren't on the Thomas Cook trips and didn't suffer through the travel mess. They are mostly mad because it's money that could have funded bridge renovation, housing for the homeless, or repaired schools.
I can understand that logic, but here's the one 'ace' in this deck....as Thomas Cook sold vacation packages....here in the middle was the German government collecting tax revenue. For decades, the government has collected a couple hundred million per year from the various sales tax events, and prospered because of Thomas Cook.
A last note....if you are Dutch or British....the deal doesn't extend to you....only only to German customers. It's going to put more pressure on the other governments to do the same thing.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)