Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Finland and the Coalition 'Troubles'

It's not front page news in Germany, but it's something that ought to make you ponder about....the Finn Prime Minister resigned today.

Trigger for this?  Well, back in April of this year, they had an election.  It didn't go very well.

The number one winner was the Social Democrats (left-of-center) who carried almost 18-percent of the vote.  They could not partner-up in a coalition with the number two or three parties of the election to get 50-percent. So they partnered with the 4th, 5th and 6th place parties (all left leaning as luck would have it).

There's been bickering since summer over the handling of things, and in the past month.....a strike occurred involving the postal authority, which involved the national airline folks as well, and the public transport sector.  In simple terms....just about everyone in Finland was peeved over the outcome of this strike business.

So the PM had to go.  Can the government survive this?  They are having meetings and discussing the outcome with the four players, and if someone else can be PM or if this requires a new election to occur.

I talk about this a great deal now....building coalitions and trying to survive four years with public attention now vastly sharpened across all of Europe.  Part of this problem is the media attention and social devices like Twitter.  A mistake today, unlike 20 years ago.....ricochets around for days and weeks.  So if you said something harsh or stupid....it creates tidal waves that political people cannot undo or say regrets over.

If an election is called in the spring of 2020?  I would take a guess that the right-leaning Finn Party might take another two to three points more in such an election, and likely winning.  But for them to build a coalition to reach 50 percent?  I'd give it less than a 10-percent chance.  So it's gathering steam for 3rd likely election to occur by the end of 2020. 

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