This came up last night on the German public news (ARD) and it's a number that the government is talking about, but you really have to question where the number came from.
The speculation by the government (German) is that in 2020....15-percent of all new cars sold will be Ecars, hydrogen cars, hybrids, etc. Yes, non-gas and non-diesel.
Last year, around 36,000 battery cars were sold in Germany, and they estimate around 30,000 hybrids were sold.
Up until the summer of 2019....there were a total 386 hydrogen cars registered in the country. In fact, within three years, I would take a guess if the hydrogen car level stays basically at the same level.....there will likely be more buses running on hydrogen, than cars.
Is there any evidence that this massive sales situation will occur in 2020, and all of the Ecars, hybrids, hydrogen cars.....will be sold? I have serious doubts. I will agree....BMW, VW and the rest....really need sales to pick up and motivate the nation to get into the technology. Billions have been spent, and they need pay-back.
So this is all heavy on optimism? The government, the environmental folks, and the car companies....are all in on this situation and being hopeful. The general public? They aren't exactly that optimistic. The idea of Tesla arriving and building cars in 2022? I just don't see that motivation shifting the typical German around to this new idea.
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