The Economy

There's a great business article up on N-TV (German commercial TV news) which talks to the topic of 'Altmaier sees upswing in economy'.

If you haven't noticed....Germany is presently in a recession.  Journalists and economists will argue....over the quality of the recession (severe versus moderate).  The unemployment rate?  It's around 5.0-percent....although you have to take into consideration that 'short-work' is being accomplished, and various big-name companies in Germany have agreed that dismissals will be on the list of to-do things in the next month or two (car companies and airlines in particular).

Pete Altmaier is the Federal Minister of Economics.  So he has some inside information that most folks don't readily see.

What he says in a interview with BILD reporters is that the economy is going to the negative peak in October, and then start a rebound.  Then he adds to the story....there's a serious problem with the GDP in 2020 (6-percent loss is actively discussed), but five-percent comes back by the end of 2021.  He sees 2021 as a super-positive year.

I should add here.....that's Altmaier's organization that makes the 6-percent loss on the GDP.....some non-government folks are suggesting slightly worse than that.

Why all of this matters?  Well...2021 is a national election year in Germany (in the fall).  If recovery can come....then both the CDU and SPD (currently the coalition group) can benefit.  If recovery doesn't come, then certain candidates will not be seen in a big positive way. 

The likely industries that will lag?  There's no doubt that the airline, travel, hotel, and restaurant industry is hurting badly because of Covid-19.  With restaurants back in business, and people showing up....they might have a half-way decent year on business.  A lot of German hotels are still talking about severe issues in customer flow, and some might not be around by the end of the year.  Almost no one in the travel industry sees real recovery in 2020, or even in 2021.  The vaccine might change some perceptions, but everyone is in a wait-and-see situation.