My Perception of the Bavarian 2023 State Election?

 It is awful early, but there's a little development.

In the last state election, while the CSU won.....the SPD folks fell to a pretty low point (9.7-percent) and the Green Party finally 'arrived' (17.6-percent).

In the past month, the Greens have this guy, Anton Hofreiter, who was at the national level, and ended up with no cabinet post....so the Party was going to send him off to the EU parliament (letting him 'graze' over there for a while).

So this interesting thing with the Ukrainian war started up. Chancellor Scholz?  He went to his standard behavior (long demonstrated as mayor of Hamburg).....do little to nothing and avoid confrontations.

Well....Hofreiter stood up for the Greens and took to dragging Scholz along.  It's an unpleasant thing.....a Chancellor having a non-cabinet guy that he can't control or shut up.

Hofreiter?  He's a Bavarian, and in this view of the election (roughly 16 months away).....I would suggest that the regional state Green Party is entertaining the idea of inviting Hofreiter to come down and front their campaign.

Hofreiter versus Soder (CSU Party)?  Well....this might make things interesting, and pretty much derail any SPD hopes in the state election.

I might even go and suggest that with Hofreiter....the Greens might be entertaining a 30-percent situation, and marginally shut-out the CSU Party.

If this 2023 scenario were to play out?  Well....it has an effect on the next federal election in 2025, and you might notice Hofreiter being discussed as the national Green Party Chancellor candidate.  

Course, I am not a Green Party enthusiast.....but Hofreiter has mostly staked out some common sense positions which moderates and conservatives might agree upon.  Lets add this....Scholz as Chancellor....is kinda like a Merkel 2.0 version and folks would like to expect more on leadership.  

So you might want to watch this landscape, and if you see Hofreiter featured (big burley red-bearded guy that you'd think would be a WWE-wrestler)....spend a moment listening to his chatter.