Public Forum Chatter

 I caught up this AM with the ARD (German public TV, Channel 1) public forum show from last night (Monday).....'Hart Aber Fair'.  Topic was?  Well...the Russia-Ukraine war....from a different mindset....pushing the peace agenda.

So for reference.....the Linke Party has this person within their group....Sahra Wegenknecht....who has pushed along a political agenda of stressing peace talks between the Ukraine and Russia.  

The Hart Aber Fair 'group'?  It was basically anti-Wegenknecht moderator and four additional negative Wegenknecht folks.  

The title of the night's discussion?  'Peace with Putin's Russia: an illusion'.

It was an odd public forum, and Wegenknecht was mostly trying to sell peace talks with people who just aren't of the same mindset.  But if you tried to bring up pro-peace talks and anti-peace talks agenda....it just isn't in the top 500 subjects of the typical working-class German.

At some point, the moderator tried to ask if he was part of the 'lying press' of Germany, and you got the feeling that Wegenknecht had to defend the guy while probably believing he was BSing folks to some degree.

A worthwhile public forum?  Well....you need to eventually reach an end to the war, and you kinda wonder....how this script will read.  Some Germans are probably skeptical at this point....believing the war will be lasting years more.  Some will ask just how much is this going to cost Germany over the next couple of years.  

There probably needed to be some discussion over the topic, but I suspect the vast majority of Germans flipped over to some reality TV show, soccer game, Baywatch rerun, or who-wants-to-be-a-millionaire show.  

Just Something To Think About

 I live in a village with about 1,600 residences (houses, apartments).  Each residence pays 18.36 Euro a month on the mandatory TV-media tax.  

For this fired RBB public TV director's pension (to be argued in court now).....the monthly pension amount is stated to be around 18,000 Euro.  

To cover the amount (if the court agrees)....roughly 980 of the 1,600 residences....would dedicate their entire monthly amount....just to the fired director's pension.

It just begs a lot of questions over the value of the public TV empire, and the 'weight' put upon each household to cover the 'bill' required.  

Just a humble feeling....but I suspect you are looking at the final decade for the German public TV folks existing in the way that they currently exist.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  BILD has a story this AM over the Economics/Environmental Minister (Habeck, Green Party).....that he is going to push an agenda to limit oil/natural gas heat.  

The basic wording?  From 2024 on....if you were installing a new heating system into your home.....at least 65-percent of the energy has to be 'renewable'.  Heating systems from the old era (now) would have a 30-year period to operate, before being forced into this situation.

Shocking some folks?  Well...we are two months into 2023, so this would come up real  quick....if it was passed.  

My gut feeling....selling this to the rest of the coalition will be difficult.  The reason driving this?  I suspect if you dig into it.....there's just not enough natural gas around since the war crisis started up....to depend on it as a source.  

2.  Episode with Last Generation activists blocking traffic in Potsdam yesterday.  In the midst of this....fire occurred and emergency vehicles needed access....and were unable to get the 'concreted' activists loose from the road.  

Police were later fairly critical of the activist and the hindering of emergency vehicles.  I would imagine each person has a summons to a court episode, and in this situation....they might be spending a fair amount of time in jail.

3.  I watched a early AM piece off N-TV this morning....concerning the town of Greifswald (up along the northeastern coast of Germany, with 60,000 in population).  Town has 'orders' from the state to accept some refugees.

Mayor didn't want to use the local school gymnasium.  Was going along with a plan to contract out containers for temp-housing. 

It appears that a fair number of town residents are negative about the container-suburb being designed.  It's reached a point now where he (the mayor) requires police protection.  

Just how big this container area was going to be?  500 refugees were figured to be in the estimate. 

4.  There is a discussion going on within the German gov't about limiting advertising of sugar-foods/drinks to kids.

What kind of limits?  The wording is NO TV commercials on the 'bad' foods....aimed at kids 14 or younger....between 6 AM and 11 PM.

What kind of bad foods?  Chocolate, sodas, ceral, chips, etc.  

They are also wording this for YouTube, Twitter and TikTok. 

Outdoor advertising....like near pools or playgrounds?  There's some wording there that would forbid picture advertisements.  

Course, if you had young people of 18 in the background of the commercial....they would not be breaking the law.

Destroying some brand names?  I can think of five chocolate and ice cream companies that would have serious issues.

5.  In Berlin, it appears likely that the new mayor and city council (after the election) will continue to be a coalition between the SPD, Linke Party and Green Party.  Even though the CDU won the election.....they've been unable to interest the Green Party in being their junior party.

What this means?  A fair number of residents/voters are disenchanted with the SPD Party accomplishments so far....the next city election is barely three years away.  Unless something changes or improves....there will be more votes for the CDU in the next election.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus has a piece written over commentary/criticism of the Berlin SPD Party....Andreas Köhler, who formerly represented the SPD mayor of the city (Franziska Giffey).  His chief comment?  "Berlin SPD is “intellectually burned out”.

It's a five page summary, and looking over it....I'd say the chief issue discussed is that the people of Berlin have been continually promised things (going back over two or three decades)....which the SPD never delivered on a single promise.  Some things were watered-down to such an extent....that you really wouldn't want to brag about what you did.

I won't disagree with the statement/commentary, but all it does is drive SPD-potential voters into the arms of the Green Party.  

2.  Somebody over the weekend....destroyed a Russian recon plane parked at a airfield in Belarus.  Some rumors that it's not Ukrainians who did it.

Here's the thing....if they don't catch the responsible parties.....there's pretty good odds that  they have enthusiasm to repeat this again.

3.  Wuppertal (between Dortmund and Koln).....the city management folks went out and bought ten gold-colored sitting benches for the shopping district area....for 400,000 Euro.

These are large sized.....I would think ten folks could be sitting on them at a time.  

Cost?  400,000 Euro, for purchase and installation.  Yeah, there's a lot of talk about how how much was spent.  You could have bought ten normal benches (installed) for probably in the sixty-thousand Euro range.  

4.  There was a bus accident on Saturday in Austria.....with a bus-load of German guys who'd come over for a bachelor's party.  One guy dead.  Happens to be the groom.

5. Couple of odd groups came together in the Ramstein Air Base area for a protest from Saturday.

Police figure around 2,500 in attendance.

Odd factor?  Both left-wing and right-wing elements (Reich crowd, Pro-Putin, left-wing peace freaks, lateral-thinkers, and conspiracy theorists).  Motto for the protest?  Americans.....go home.  

I'll just say that it was peaceful, and very odd that so many oddball groups found the same topic to come together on.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  I sat and read a piece off Focus, describing strategy papers that the journalist had come across....regarding the Last Generation activists.  

Next agenda?  The claim is....the activists will take to vehicles...on the autobahn system (suggesting the Berlin area will be the first target) to SLOW traffic in areas where there is no speed limit.  The claim is....they are seeking volunteers.

To be honest here....once you get within 20 km's of Berlin...the speed shifts down to 100 kph anyway on most of the autobahns, and at rush-hours of the day....because of stau situations....the traffic is normally moving at stop-and-go speeds anyway. 

I pondered over.  If this were a 2-lane situation.....you'd probably block two lanes and travel between 100 to 130 kph.  I'm likely to think they'd select the slower 100 to make their point.  

The problem here...if you trigger an accident of any type, you get into a vehicular assault/manslaughter situation...losing your license permanently and going to jail.

I don't see this strategy selling their 'brand' well, and just angering people even more.  

2.  Interior Minister (Faeser) made a public statement....warning Germans yesterday of potential Russian sabotage.  At what angle?  Leaves you guessing.  

A BS statement?  No.....I probably would have already suggested this back in the summer of 2022.

3.  Roughly 10,000 protest folks showed up in Berlin for the 'peace-rally' yesterday.  Was awful bitter cold....if held in May....might have been triple the number of folks showing up.

4.  WELT piece this AM views German home prices spiraling in a downward position....NOT a seller's market presently.  Some suggest that it'll trend this way through all of 2023 and probably 2024.  

5.  There's a Bundeswehr association that had a meeting yesterday, and put out a statement at the end.....expecting an entire decade of 'war' to continue with Russia and Ukraine.  

The group kinda hinted....Germany will have to devote itself to this new reality.  Might shock a number of political folks. 

Balloons

 N-TV today did a 3-min segment over balloons and Germany.

So....to the facts, they figure on average....15,000 balloons will cross Germany in some fashion on an average, and no one reacts. 

A big deal?  No.

License required?  No.

Any of them shot down?  No.

Dancing Story

 One day, in the midst of July 1518....in the Alsace region of France (up against the German border)....some local gal just started dancing.

It had been a fairly warm summer throughout the UK, and throughout most of France.  By hot....yeah, it probably got above 30 C for a number of days.  No one kept records....but it is noted that the summer was exceptionally hot.

I have some minor reason to believe that this local French gal, with the dancing issue....probably was dehydrated and hallucinating to some degree.  

Over the course of about ten weeks after this first gal....until mid-September....the story goes that a minimum of fifty people (some argue up to 400) were in some dancing 'fit'.

Some government records note the business....some religious letters contain updates about this dancing business.

At some point....probably two months into this....it reached a point where church and leadership folks stepped in, and took possession of the afflicted.

There's a lot of legend stuff here....some saying folks died from dancing.  Some even saying up to fifteen bodies were recovered daily from the dancing.  Some might be true....some might be bogus.

There are two general theories about this period and dancing..

First....some folks think that mushrooms or psychoactive items got into the food supply....either by accident or intentionally.    I like this theory...because it'd explain a lot.  

Also....it could have been one single peddler going through a community and dishing out the mushrooms.  

The second idea?  Mass hysteria.  I'm less of a believer on this idea.

The fact that all of this stopped as fall approached?  Yeah....that's part of the story.  Oddly....it just stopped.....never repeated. 

I always thought it'd be a great movie idea.   

Two Observations

1.  About a week ago....I watched a video where a Turk in the earthquake zone led a film guy through a end of one town seriously affected.  

The two walked through a block (both sides) of total destruction.

Then they came to an intersection....where there's literally that has fallen down. 

The Turk explained....this part of town was built by one particular company....everything to the specified standard to meet quakes.  Everything prior to that (the destroyed apartment houses).....were also built with the standards in mind but never accomplished.  

Yeah, everyone is pretty angry, and whatever this company was who 'failed'.....I'd suggest they are probably finshed.

2.  It's been roughly four days since the fasching business went on in Mainz (back on Monday).  Authorities are now saying a massive wave of cold, flu and Covid is going on in the region.  

What Is Austerity Public TV?

 Up until yesterday....I'd never heard of this type of format.

So, this begins with all the over-expenditures of public TV funds with RBB (the network out of Berlin).  In their budget (figure for the next two years)....they are missing 50-million Euro.  

The management crew sat down and calculated who'd have to go, and how they'd fund various TV programs produced by the network.

Thus...came 'austerity-TV'.

My general guess is that a lot of reruns (maybe even going back to the 2004 period when they were 'created') will be used.  

I'd also guess that public event episodes where they'd hire a dozen singers/groups for a show....will be whittled down to nothing.

Movie productions?  They probably took the full listing, and carved off half of the projected movie ideas.

The curious thing to ask at the end of the two-year period?  Did anyone even notice that this was austerity TV, or did everyone seem to think it was normal TV?

Three Interesting Things

 1.  I noticed that the Institute for Economics, Labor and Culture (out of the Goethe University in Frankfurt) did a study, and the state gov't released their report.

Basically....the state of Hessen in five years....will be experiencing a shortage of 178,0900 'skilled' workers.

I looked at their graphical map, and it's an interesting thing.  The marginal areas where the lacking skilled workers will be?  Mostly in the Frankfurt, Wiesbaden, Hanau, and Darmstadt areas.  There's three districts....highly rural....which will have significant numbers of missing skilled workers.

A big deal?  I would imagine various companies in these rural areas are pretty worried and wondering how they will recruit people to move to these regions.

2.  Some group dragged a highly damaged Russian tank from the Ukraine....across Poland....to Berlin, and dropped it this AM in front of the Russian embassy as a 'statement'.

Normally, even for a damaged tank....you'd have to do permits, and I don't think nothing was done in crossing Poland, or entering Germany.

3.  Finally, I noted a brewery in the Berlin area which has developed a non-alcohol 'beer-powder'.

What the deal is about?  

They found a formula of sorts that you could package in 'tab' or in a packet.....throwing in a spoonful or two....into plain water,  and you'd get a beer-tasting drink.

Now....if you asked me....who the hell would want this?  I have no idea.  We already have non-alcohol beer (liquid form).  Why would you want the same thing....in a powder form.  I'm just guessing here.....but this product will come-and-go quickly.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  One piece I noticed off N-TV last night.....the dismissed 'CEO' of Berlin's public TV network (RBB)....got back into the news.

I'll just say that the dismissal (summer 2022) came up over nepotism and waste of public money, and that the whole public TV empire (to include ZDF and ARD) was shaken severely by the situation. 

Well....she wants her pension turned on.  How much?  Based on the court document....it's 81-percent of her last monthly paycheck (this comes out to 18,348 Euro a month).  Yeah, it's a heck of a lot, and even more than former Chancellor Merkel would get.

Damage done to RBB right now?  They say they've gone to a austerity schedule....cutting around 100 employees and trying find 50-million Euro in savings over the next three years to survive.  

What'll happen in court?  It depends on the content of her contract.  I'm guessing it'll take 18 months minimum for this case to be resolved.  

2.  Chancellor Scholz appeared on the public TV forum last night....the Maybrit Illner Show.  Chief question?  Would peace come shortly in the Ukraine-Russia war?  Answer: Zero prospects for peace in the near future. 

Another question....should Germany return to the draft?  Scholz said absolutely no.

3.  N-TV had a short piece and identified a photo of a BTR-50 APC that was in action in Ukraine for the Russians.

It's kinda interesting to me....this was a APC developed in the mid-1950s.  Most countries....by the late 1980s, had retired the APC.  You would think that they would have all been sent off to the bone-yard by this point. 

On being of value?  Typical plating for this was not that great, so for transporting soldiers in a threat-zone....I wouldn't have much confidence to be sitting in the APC.  

4.  EU is considering a new mandate.  It's fairly popular to buy things, without cash moving in the initial stage.  You simply agree on the site to pay after it arrives.  The EU says you should only get this option....if you can prove your 'worthy nature'. 

A fair number of politicians and companies jumped up when this announcement was made.  It would beg the question....who started this trending topic in the EU and how it made it this far.  

Klugscheißer

It's a German term that might only be actually used in your presence maybe half-a-dozen times a year.  Or you might be around someone who uses the phrase almost daily.

So this is my definition, it'll be a gal or gal who gets into a conversation with you....over business, professional stuff, intellectual chit-chat, or even personal affairs....then claiming that they have a education level to be an authority over this, or simply know more than you do.....so they go to leading the conversation and how you can fix or correct the situation.

Yes, simply a know-it-all, but to the ninth degree.

Should you use the term 'Klugschißer' to your friend or associate (or German wife)?  NO.  It's best to lead the conversation away from the topic and suggest that maybe their knowledge is missing a small part of the issue.  If you use the term.....the other party will get hostile, and it's not worth the pain.

Are there a lot of these Klugscheißer folks?  I'd like to say very few, but once you meet them....you tend to limit your presence around them as much as possible, and hopefully avoid their advice.  The key thing....just don't use the word Klugscheißer in their presence....because they will go nuts trying to deny this status, and accuse you of insulting them. 

Just Observations

 1.  Word came out of a Berlin city courtroom today....case against a Last Generation activist....in the middle of the hearing with the judge.....the guy pulls out some glue and glues himself to the judge's table.

23-year old guy....shouting at the judge over the way that things were going....'doom and gloom' over Germany.  

All that was said is that the judge suspended the hearing until tomorrow.  I looked over charges...violating road traffic, violating a policeman's order, and coercion.  It'd normally be something you'd fine the guy for a thousand Euro, and give him a suspended sentence with zero jail-time.

I'd guess....there's probably a new charge added over the glue on the table, and this might go to a month in jail.  Judge might go to another angle.....asking for a mental exam of the guy....taking him into a facility for 30 days.  

2.  The former Foreign Minister....Gunter Gabriel (SPD) gave an interview to RTL today.  In a blunt way.....he said no one today can say that whoever replaces Putin (when the day come).....will be any better.

3.  There's to be an approved hydrogen 'line' going from Wilhelmshaven to Koln built.  400 km long.

Before you get excited.....it won't be done until 2028, and with Germans often delaying things....it might not be open until 2030.

This changing the dynamics of the E-car business?  No one says that....but it would offer an alternate strategy.  

4.  At this point in the winter....gov't is saying that the normal amount of natural gas use has been lessened (saying 23-percent less than normal).  A lot of this....I would attribute to low temperatures.

My sense of the the past four months?  I've used one bucket of salt total.  I've probably shoveled snow around five times....but none of them have been more golf-ball size height.  In my valley, we did have a fifteen-day period of minus-temperatures (under zero), but most of the time, it was 3 to 7 degrees above zero (C) for daytime temperatures.   

I would add that the wife did lessen household temperatures to just 20 C (68 F), and we used a small heater for the bathroom for an hour out of each day.  

Three Interesting Topics

 1.  I sat and watched ARD (public TV, Channel 1) yesterday, and they came up with a report on sugar drinks (the evil of intellectuals in Germany).

So, if you watching things unfold around five years ago...there was a whole bunch of chatter between politicians (even the Merkel CDU Party) and sugar-drink producers....about lessening content.

Someone went to the industry, and the number in 2022....now to say nothing has occurred with less sugar in drinks.  So the topic of a sugar tax on sodas and juicy-drinks is now back up on the board to be discussed.

The PhD folks at the Ludwig Maximilian University did agree, from 2015 to 2021....sugar content did fall, but it was an average total of two percent.  That's it.

What's likely to occur?  I would suspect that the Health Ministry will have talks this year, and by early 2023....submit a taxation deal....both on sodas, and sugar type drinks (like Capri-Sun juice).  

If you asked how it'd be designed?  I'd suggest full-up taxation (to drink producers who do nothing)....probably a 30-percent taxation gimmick, and for the drink producers who at least cut 25-percent....probably a 10-percent taxation gimmick.

What'll happen next?  Among normal consumers?  Nothing.....they will pay the 30-percent extra tax.  People in the low-income or welfare levels....probably will switch to a lower taxed product, or attempt to buy non-German products from Poland, Austria or Netherlands.  

After four years of use....the gov't will admit this was a failure, and double the tax....to get everyone's attention.  People by this point will figure out....buy the zero sugar product, and just buy commercialized sugar to add to the product later....when drinking it.

Anyone thinking you can mandate things and force habit changes....isn't viewing the reality of consumers.

Oh, and I'll add....by 2030, by I expect the German gov't to mandate that child under the age of fourteen can buy or consume regular sodas.

2.  More talks in Berlin about the city election results, and the SPD (2nd-place winner) attempting to convince the Greens and Linke Party to merge into their coalition gov't?  Yeah.

Stumbling point?  It would appear (at least to an non-German) that the only way they halt a CDU-led (the winner of the election) is by the SPD removing their lead candidate Griffey from the 'mayor' job.  

3.  It would appear on 1 March....that every single Covid 'rule' will disappear except the use of masks while in clinics, hospitals or retirement homes.  

Ten Things I Expect At The End Of The Russia-Ukraine War

 1.  Putin is dead (through cancer or some health issue).

2.  Whoever replaces Putin is a temp-guy....between six to twelve months....allowing the Duma and Oligarch crew to voice internally their Putin-like replacement.

3.  The war, after Putin is buried.....is filtered down into a lesser conflict.  The Russians will still be there but internal discussions will hinder any bold 'steps'.  Around as the real 'new' guy is installed....the Oligarch/Duma crowd agrees....the war will be ended (no treaty, just troops leaving).  

4.  As bad as 2023 probably will be for the Russian economy....I'm in the belief that 2024 will be even worse, with two mobilization 'drills' for 2023 starting to conflict with the industry and service sector.  

5.  I expect as the war ends....a period of suicide erupts with dozens of key players within the Russian military and government.  It was a similar 'mess' in 1945 in Germany.....where people lost their prospective about the war.

6.  A massive military rebuilding plan will be put forward, and will bring massive chaos to the financial sector of Russia....because they can't afford what is discussed.

7.  Someone within the government of Russia will admit as the war closes down....the true population.  Presently, they say it's in the 144-million range.  I expect this number to be trimmed down to the 130-million range at present.

8.  Almost every town in Russia will embark upon a memorial or statue routine....to honor the dead.  Upwards to 100,000 monuments or statues will be put up over the next decade....across the nation.  At least 100 Putin statues will be among them.

9.  At least 100 books will be written of the war, from the Russian prospective....with most all detailing how brilliant Putin managed the war.

10.  At least twenty movies will be produced from within Russia by 2030....over the heroic efforts by the common Russian soldier....against the evil Nazi-Ukrainians.  Attempts to distribute or play the movies in Europe will fail miserably.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Medvedev (Putin's number two) said yesterday: "If Russia ends the military special operation without a victory, then Russia will no longer exist, it will be torn into pieces."

I would agree.  With each day that passes....there's more equipment permanently removed from the military arsenal, and a minimum of a hundred men either dead or wounded enough to be out-of-action.  Things will never return to a 'norm' in this generation of Russians.

2.  About halfway between Bremen and Hamburg (in the north), some German female bicyclist on a ride....had three wolves give chase.  She thinks she only survived because she kept her speed up.  Eventually, there's going to be a human death leading back to the wolves issue in Germany.  It won't be pleasant from that day on.

3.  For a couple of hours....Twitter shut off the account of ZDF's (German public TV, Channel 2) news show 'Frontal'.  Reason?  What they said was that the person who manages the account....had a incorrect age listed.  It appears that this got ZDF all hyped-up, and accusations that Russia might have been behind the incident.   

4.  Across the bulk of France.....32 days straight without rain.  Drought conditions are now in effect.  

Germans Leaving Germany?

 Well....on average....somewhere between 250,000 to 450,000 people arrive in Germany each year.   But also.....around 200,000 to 250,000 (on average) Germans leave Germany each year.

Permanently?  Yeah.

This got brought up via N-24 news today.  

Reasons?  Some cases are simply job-offers that required movement. Some relate to changing desires or different weather situations.  Some revolve around capitalistic opportunities.  And some revolve around disenchantment with mandates or politics. 

People moving a great distance?  You can laugh, but roughly one-quarter of the folks only moved to Switzerland or Austria.  France will get one out of twenty folks.  The US gets similar numbers.  Roughly 3-percent of the group run off to New Zealand.....probably thinking that isolation is fantastic adventure priority.  

This leave-thing being curious?  I had a German (older guy) present the case in the 1980s that Germans for the most part.....never move more than 100 km where they grew up.  His persuasion here....was that people wanted a constant format and regimented life-style.  Screw that 'change' business....was what came to my mind at the time.

What's happened in the past thirty years to change things?  I would offer four things:

1.  You have a lot of Germans who travel and feel some affection to some place that they claim is 'enchanted'.  Just in my village of 4,000 residents....there's probably a hundred who've made a trip to Australia.  There's probably 400 who've made multiple trips to Turkey.

2.  I would suggest that urbanization and over-crowding in some cities in Germany....have managed to peeve some people off, and they want a less urbanized atmosphere.  Yes, perhaps even accepting some remote region of Canada or New Zealand as the perfect answer.

3.  Political motivation?  For a handful of Germans who leave....there's probably some frustration with the past decade or two, and the disgruntlement has led to a desire with less politicization involved.

4.  Finally, I would offer that there are more Germans today in existence....who seem willing to take on adventure and change.  I'm not saying the willing nature to move to Siberia or El Salvador....but they are willing to consider some radical moves in their life.

What this means?  For each person leaving.....you need to find at least one person to arrive and take their place.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Berlin election chatter.

First, yesterday....the Greens and Linke Party folks met with the SPD.  The SPD came in second, and believe that they can put together a state-government (rather than a CDU-Greens or CDU-SPD situation).

Second, in a handful of districts....there seems to be more ballots cast, than eligible voters from the district.  Based on the chatter.....it doesn't seem to be more than 'dozens'.  Just odd....I will say. 

2.  Some juvenile act in Berlin....Last Generation activist got over in the area of the Chancellery and cut a tree down (probably no thicker than 15 cm.  Cops came up and quickly detained the guy.  There will be charges.  How the guy explains himself to be a environmentalist and tears down trees....will be difficult.

3.  Frankfurt Airport is offering an unusual service (free).  You book a time for the personal/luggage security check.  I'm skeptical of how this would work.  They admit....there will only be one single aisle for this, and a limited number of 'customers' in the mix.  The thing is....you book a time (probably a 3-min allotment, and you hope to be in the building without some chaos going on).  

4.  If you watched a translated piece of Putin's 'State-of-the-Union' address from yesterday....it may sound familiar.  All of the sound bites from the past six months that you might have hear him utter.....he repeated.  At some point....several folks were falling asleep in the audience.

5.  If you were into the Punica juice brand (been around for years and years).....business has suffered, and the company is halting production.  They had been bought years ago by Pepsi.  

Politics Today

 I saw a polling done by RTL (commercial TV) today.

If an election was held (federal type)....the CDU/CSU would lead with 31 percent of the public vote.

The SPD (currently leading the coalition) would only get 19 percent.

The Greens would only get 17 percent.

The FDP is really screwed....at 6 percent, and the Linke Part rests at 5 percent.  The AfD?  At 13 percent.

The positive side?  We are around thirty months from the next election.  

Hurting the SPD situation for state elections?  Well....yeah, this is a major to explain to the public (two state elections in the fall for Germany, Hessen and Bavaria).

Different topics hurting the SPD message/brand?  I would say there's a group of ten subjects that they are screwing up, and can't really brag much about.  Same story for the Greens at present.

The economy being the big negative?  I would agree to rank this issue at the very top....with energy prices, the war support, refugees, and housing costs.  

'Peace' Rally in Berlin?

 Announced for this weekend....led by Sahra Wagenknecht (Linke Party).  To be in Berlin.  

Supported by the Linke Party itself?  No.  That's one odd factor.  Wagenknecht has a group of support people....most of which have no link back to the elite of the Linke Party (yeah, just a bit odd).

This Rally to be leaning more to the Russians?  Some people are suggesting this.

Some folks are suggesting that this is a moment where the Linke Party might finally break apart....with one element of the leftist group going off with Wagenknecht.  Others are just skeptical of what kind of peace 'lecture' is being offered up.

An Observation Over The War

 For those who haven't figured it out....for a brief period in the 1990s of Russia....they tried to run from the Soviet era to the 'future', with a chaos-type motivation to keep people focused.  

Economics were crapped-up.  The Chechen War (multiple) played out.  The Oligarch crowd were always in turmoil and competing against each other.  Elections were held to satisfy the public, but unqualified people ended up in positions of authority.  Tax evasion was practiced by literally everyone.  Most Russians would say by the end of the era.....the only obvious 'fix' would be to bring in a thug to micromanage things in one precise way.

So enters Putin.

The 'medicine' taken over 2000?  For about every negative....there's two positives....at least in the minds of most average Russians.

I suspect if you sat in a pub with a hundred Russians....asking who should take over once Putin passes on...the vast majority will say a carbon copy of Putin.  Whether one exists or not?  Unknown.

For this reason, I'm not really buying into the strategy of bringing Russia to some downfall or collapse. I do agree....embarking on this adventure into Ukraine was awful stupid, because it calculated that they were easily defeated in a week or two.  Putin believed the assessment, and sought the invasion as his crowning 'touch' (the climax of his career).

So here we are....almost a year later.....into the ten-day war.    

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Coming this summer to Germany....is a new software/sensor package which will be deployed along the German autobahn system.  It'll monitor if the cellphone within the car is 'active' and take a picture.  Picture gets sent to the cops.....if you are holding the phone in your hand....100-Euro fine.  

My general take over this?  You could have your spouse and two kids in the vehicle....each with a phone in use, and the cops will probably get three-hundred pictures per day which 80-percent need to be disqualified.  Hands-free situation....like on my Audi A5?  Perfectly legal. 

2.  I noticed off Focus....Andrea Nahles, who heads up the German Federal Employment Agency, did an interview with the Bavarian newspaper "Augsburger Allgemeine".

She made a blunt comment at German youth....that "work is not a pony farm".

The pony farm comment is usually used for kids to describe educational opportunities and that you should not waste your chances in life.

In this case....she's making it blunt that work was not designed to be a leisure thing...suck it up, and make the best out of the situation. 

3.  WELT this AM had a note.....German sick leave usage for 2022....was at all time levels....went approximately three-quarters over what was considered 'normal'.  

Triggers?  Well....Covid is in the mix, and flu has returned.  If I ask my wife, she'll say stress is at a higher rate than in previous years.

In another WELT health piece....Germans are reporting more long-Covid issues....particularly around concentrating and focusing.  

4.  A new EU 'agreement' is laying there and unable to proceed....on climate change. Odd discussion....France wants a paragraph in the statement/mandate that says nuke energy is appropriate in fighting the 'crisis'.  Germany has said NO....no nuke power paragraph.  

5.  Around six weeks ago in Berlin....fire started up in a refugee structure hallway.  A Syrian woman died.  Fire department has been investigating the cause.  

Some conclusion announced late yesterday....arson.  Was intentionally set.  Cops now involved.

6.  Results from this Berlin city-revote?  Well....it's developing into a bigger mess now.  

If you remember the whole reason for second vote (first being Sep 2021)....a lot of screw-ups developed.

New problems?  They counted the 466 'found' ballots from the post office system.  Based on numbers for this suburb of Berlin (Lichtenberg)......the CDU candidate won the district...NOT the Linke Party candidate (only 10-vote difference).  Linke Party says they will mount a legal challenge.

Final?  Well...no, there has to be some official announcement by the city election commission.  There's a possibility that they have to find some compromise to make various folks agreeable.

7.  Some case on Covid test center frauds concluded yesterday in Berlin.  Court went to convict the individual.  Sentenced to almost four years of prison for fraud.  

The Carbon Card Discussion

 I sat and read through a piece of the London Times this AM (I will admit it's a bit overwhelming on intellectual 'drama').

Topic?  Some PhD guys/gals have gathered and in the UK....they are suggesting the chief way to combat climate change....is by rationing things.

What things?  Well....airline flights, food of certain types (meat is a definite on the list), gas/diesel, and general clothing (sounds like they are excluding underwear, bras, and socks.

How would this work?  You'd have something that works like a Visa card....referred to as a 'carbon card', and limits would be on it.

I sat and pondered upon this....about halfway through the article, I had to put it down.

Would toilet paper go on the list, and you'd face limits of 12 sheets per day?

Would beer go on the carbon limits....with no more than three beers a day?

Would meat end up being fairly limited....just giving three portions a week?

Would you only get one visit quarterly to McDonalds?

Would coffee be a controlled item?

Light bulbs?  Would it reach a point where I could only get two bulbs a year, and sit in darkness for weeks until my 'day' arrived?

Mustard and pickles?  Unlimited?

Would condoms go on the limits list.....with guys only getting a dozen per month?  

Might cannabis get on the list, and limit guys to just one joint a week?

Would seats or positions in universities decrease, with only the ultra-smart folks getting an approval to sit in classes?

The more I thought about this gimmick.....the less likely I felt that society would accept this.  They'd either go and fire the government starting this....or they'd pack up and leave the country.  

This all becoming a chat about CONTROL?  Well....the more you stretch your imagination on this.....it can only be a control thing.  The Soviets ran this for several decades....finding it mostly led to certain people getting no limit, and the majority of people forever having a limit.   

Four Things I Will Suggest At The Conclusion Of The Ukraine-Russia War

 I'm not saying when this event will occur, but there four landscapes I see in place at the bitter end.

1.  Russia being a top ten or top fifteen 'power'?  No.  

GDP-wise, Russia will slip from the number eleven position on GDP....to around twenty-to-twenty-five, and they won't be improving their position for a minimum of two decades.

I also don't think the population at present in Russia will stay.  Just my humble view, but at least 500,000 probably will leave this year, and the same number number for 2024.

2.  Whoever replaces Putin (he has to be dead for the conclusion to occur)....will have a period of employment with the FSB (former KGB), and have little experience at running any gov't organization.

3.  Ukraine will require more than 1-trillion dollars for the rebuilding effort, and as much as Russia is responsible....the west will get the bill for half-a-trillion.

4.  No one in Russia will ever know how many men were killed-in-action over the war.  Even Putin, or Putin's replacement.  It'll be forever a mystery number.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  With the Munich Security Conference wrapping up....ever noticed that basically whatever script that folks had for Davos (a month prior).....they are simply revisiting the same topic....same ideas....same words....for the Munich 'show'?

2.  German Post is discussing some idea....two types of regular stamps for letters.  One would get it there within 1.5 days (the current expectation for the past fifty-odd years) and the other would be 3-to-5 days.

Course, the long-delivery stamp would cost what you typically pay today for the 1.5 day deal.  

To be honest....I think most Germans would only buy the 3-to-5 day stamp for 90-percent of their mail.

3.  I noticed off N-TV news this AM....some German PhD type sat and added up the cost of the Ukraine-Russia war on Germany itself....saying it ran up to 100-billion Euro.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's not double that amount.  

4.  Weather-wise?  Some parts of Germany this week will hit 20 C (68 F).  Yeah, it's been an odd winter.  I probably shoveled snow just three times so far, and used half a bucket of salt.  

5.  Some weird event on the west side of Frankfurt from 2 AM Sunday morning.  The way cops describe it....they got a phone call about a disturbance in some apartment building going on.

Apparently, some 10-year old German kid had a water pistol and was 'soaking' folks in the building when they answered the doorbell.

The kid escaped to his apartment....closing the door. Using a knife in some manner....he threatened the officers from under the door.  At some point....he opened the door and attempted to throw the knife at the police.

Some effort was expended to control the kid, but failed, and the cops resorted to irritant gas to get his attention.

Adults in the apartment?  None.  Just two sisters who'd locked themselves in the place to feel 'safe'.

Cops later found the mother and released the kid back to her.  

Brawl Story

 This AM...fair amount of chatter out of Gelsenkirchen (far NW of Germany)....over a riot/brawl....between soccer fans...after midnight last night.

What the cops say?  Couple hundred fans were out....probably drinking heavy....Schalke fans.  They were supposed to be arriving at the train station at 6 AM....for a train that would take them over to Berlin for the Sunday afternoon Shalke-Union Berlin game.  

There in the middle of morning hours....around 150 hooligans appeared (with baseball bats).  Cops say (marginal evidence so far) that they were people from the Rot-Weiss-Essen and Borussia Dortmund Saturday game.

The term 'mass brawl' is used....fair amount of injuries.

Any arrests?  Well....no.  What they say....as quick as this started up....it ended in a matter of minutes, before the police arrive.

On serious injuries....it sounds like five to six are in this category and maybe thirty to forty are somewhat injured.

An unusual thing?  Well...typically, hooligan activities occur before or after a game, and your team is the playing in the region.  This is rare that fans appeared from a secondary game, and were prepared for violent activity.

But it goes back to my caution (often used).....you ought to be home safely, by midnight and not go testing the safety factor of German cities today.  

Cultural Appropriation Lecture

 I sat and watched the Hessen regional news last night via HR.  In the middle of the news piece....they came to offer up a 5-minute piece on cultural appropriation.

You see....we are in the middle fasching season (Karneval) and one of the top forty costumes that you might see....is a German dressed in an American Indian outfit.

Somehow, HR had found someone to come lecture folks on how this was inappropriate to wear the Indian costume.  Then they came to 'blackface' and added that as inappropriate.  But they added some moment where a guy was in a sheep outfit....with blackface, and how 'black sheep' are a 50-50 situation....being somewhat appropriate.

After the news ended....they cut and went to a full 2-hour fasching show, which led off with a cowboy-saloon piece, and the theme for the whole show was 'western'.  I lectured the wife for about 30 seconds....this was highly inappropriate for Germans to dress as cowboys.  I was quickly 'corrected' by my German wife....'cut the crap'.

The problem is....if you viewed an entire audience at one of these Mainz fasching events....probably one-third of them are in some costume that is culturally inappropriate. Clowns are OK....Spanish bullfighter outfits are inappropriate.  Nurse outfits are OK, but women dressing as men is inappropriate.

The trouble with this BS....you start a necessity to judge just about everything you see, and continually get into a lecture mode.  Maybe at age 20....I had the potential for you to spend 30 minutes lecturing me....today?  At the 30 second point of a lecture....I'm drifting off and thinking zombie movies or the best Yankees line-up.  

Three Questions

1.  I noted off Focus...someone asked one of the key figures of the CSU Party (out of Bavaria)....if the Last Generation environmentalists were destined to become a modern-day Red Army Faction?  

It's a curious question.  

If you haven't paid attention to the group....it's almost daily now that they trigger some event to get notoriety somewhere in Germany.  I would suggest since day one.....in terms of getting public feelings hyped up and positive toward their agenda....it's probably fewer than 1,000 that have attached themselves to the agenda.

At some point by the end of 2023, I expect some elements of the group to suggest violence and 'drama' as being next on their agenda.

As violent as the Red Army Faction was in the 1970s/1980s.....they were another group that generally unable to convey their purpose or mission in life.  In the end, they simply helped to mold the German police into a modern force, with new tools and strategies to handle this type of environment.  

2.  Is the figure of 9,000 Wagner mercenaries killed (on the Russian side) accurate?  

The number comes from the US, and I would be somewhat skeptical of the number.

If it were true....it's a problem to see how Wagner would continue their support function for the Russian army.  

3.  German cops pulled a pistol and shot a teenager for a robbery situation in Berlin?

Basically (occurred early this AM)....some teenage girl was caught robbing a store, and held until the cops arrived.  For whatever reason....the girl then pulled a knife and felt she could bluff her way out of the situation (bad move).  Cops pulled a pistol and fired a round into the girl's arm.  All of this happening at the main train station in town...exciting a fair number of folks.  

Spy Story

 In the past month, this page-three type story has unfolded.  

Basically....this guy who had been recently promoted to a top position in Germany's BND (their CIA), and headed up the technical reconnaissance division....was a secret agent for the Russians.

When he got caught?  Well....the Russians had asked for the location of the US HIMARS launchers in Ukraine.

Cash-flow?  It depends on who is telling the story....but one news source suggests the guy had a payment of 100,000 Euro at some point.  Truth to the story?  I would be skeptical.

So, here's the thing....a number of folks are looking at the story, and now asking the question.....are there more spies within the German government?

People were often thinking over Soviet spies in the 1960s/1970s in West Germany.  That period went away, and up to now.....the spy business was thought to be mostly 'gone'.

Is A Disco In Germany In 1978/1984 Different From A Disco In 2023?

Originally, at least from the 1978 to 1984 prospective that I have....German disco operations were designed as a dance-club where you stood a 20-percent chance of meeting some gal, and the music was half-way decent.  

At some point in the 1990s, techno arrived and disco went into a death-spiral affect.  With techno....came Ecstasy (MDMA/Molly) and the clubs often went to opening around 10 PM and staying open to sun-up.

Today?  If you have the word 'disco' on your club....it's probably a dance-club....where some hired 'ladies' are on a stage and dancing to a crowd thats probably 80-percent men.  There will be a bouncer at the door to say if you have proper attire or not, and you probably will be spending 150 Euro for the evening on booze and drinks.  It won't be a cheap experience. 

The other thing you will notice....the building itself (today) will likely be some former warehouse operation that has been converted into a two or three event facility (one side might be techno....another side for marriage parties....another side for Turkish music).  

In my local area (Wiesbaden)?  Most of the disco clubs died out in the 1990s and what remains is mostly a single dance-club that gets mentioned in the local police blotter at least once a week....where a fight brews up either between guys, or between a group of women.  These always seem to occur at 3 AM, and requires three or four police units to restore order.  A meeting of drunks?  Yeah....more or less. 

How The Bavaria State Election Looks Presently?

 Set for 8 October 2023.

Polling presently?  No doubt that the CSU (sister party of the CDU) will win (actually polling near 42-percent).

Its the second and third place business....to which a coalition can be formed....that now matters.

The Greens are hanging in there with around 16-percent of the polls.  The SPD is far behind at 10-percent.

AfD?  At 9-percent.

FDP?  At 3-to-4 percent.

Finally, the Free Voter Party of Bavaria (FW)....presently stands at 10-percent.  They would call themselves center-right, and claim some values on conservation.  For practical purposes, in highly ruralized areas in Bavaria, the Pfalz and B-W....the FW positions attract voters.  

I would suggest that the FW folks and the CSU....if trends hold....will be the coalition.  If the Greens do some 'gains'....it'll only deduct votes from the SPD, and they really don't want to lag behind with only 7-percent in this race.

What Is the Center of German 'Unity' Building?

 Well....the Bundestag has put up around 200-million Euro to construct a building which will be for the purpose of serving as some 'catalyst' for talking about unification.

This week....the competition finished up on where the site would be located, and Halle will be the location.  There's some disgruntlement going on with the other cities that tried to get into the competition.  

The other four cities in the competition?  Jena, Eisenach, Leipzig, and Frankfurt (the other one, on the eastern side).

Trying to get an understanding of the purpose of the structure (worth 200-million Euro)?  Well....the political folks want a building to explain how East and West Germany unified so successfully.  This would be a place where you could visit and learn all the effective tools of unification. 

The fact that 30 years later....probably one-third of East Germans consider the unification a problem or unsuccessful.  The NY Times published a piece three years ago....after talking to East Germans....that eight out of ten felt that unification was still incomplete.  

The Economist published a piece in 2019....saying from West Germans they talked to....only about half of them consider unification a success story to talk about.

I hate to suggest it, but I think the main purpose of the Center (once standing and operational) is to bring people through and propagandize them enough....that they believe unification has been mostly a long and tough success story.

This unification discussion is a epic saga in some ways.  You take a section of the country, and push them through a marginal crappy existence from 1945 to 1989.  Those who were teens in the war....sat through the entire period....with their kids getting the full bitter taste.  

Those born after 1990?  On one side, they get the unification-fixed-all-problems chatter, but see dozens of problems which still linger over a thirty year period.  

Maybe in thirty years....the center will have changed the perception of people.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  This Trier attack on the police....now top news in Germany.  Video from local people at the scene being used.....local authorities talking about severe consequences for those involved.  

Under the assault laws....you could be charged-up an go up to five years in prison.  It'd be a bit comical...arriving at prison and noting you were just at some disco....got drunk....then charged at some policeman with a beer bottle or broom-stick....to be there three or four years for your action....remember nothing much from the night.

2.  Qatar Sheik offering to buy Manchester United soccer club?  That's the 4-star rumor.

3.  Fair amount of chatter that the 49-Euro Bahn ticket is just a momentary thing, and the price will escalate by the end of 2023.  BS?  No.  Virtually everyone involved in the process of the ticket agrees that the government would have to throw in more cash.

My gut feeling?  After the Hessen/Bavaria state elections in the fall....probably within four weeks....the announcement will come with the 2024 ticket price (per month) going to 69 Euro.  I also doubt that it stays there for more than twelve months.

4.  This migration meeting in Berlin from this week....went pretty negative.  State authorities and the federal system could not reach any real conclusion to the current crisis period.

5.  Lot of strike chatter going on with the Post folks.  The Post is willing to offer around a 11-percent pay-raise....the union wants 15-percent.  Yesterday....the Post suggested that they might start thinking about 'out-sourcing' parts of the job.  

Consequences?  It would not shock me if in a year or two....neighborhood mailboxes got put up, and a single stop by one contracted guy (making less than the current postman)....filled 200 boxes in twenty minutes.  You'd naturally have to walk several minutes to reach the box, but it'd lessen cost.  

The Thing About Destroying The Jungle

 Around thirty years ago, I spent three years in Panama.  

It took me about a year to realize as much as the military spent time trimming back the jungle along the housing area....every single rainy season....it crept back. The base would go and hire a contract crew to come in....clear a good bit of growth of the jungle and ensure it didn't become 'snake-infested'.

So one day....one of the guys who handled National Guard deployments got into a discussion with me over a major US project down in Peru.  

The US had decided to vote thousands of man-days over a three-year period....to a 2-week deployment situation.  You'd bring in a crew of sixty-odd personnel, and their job was to build a 'road' through a jungle area to a remote village.....about twenty miles off in the distance.

They'd mostly do this in the dry season.  As each each wet season wrapped up....the new crew would arrive and find jungle growth back in full-swing....so it was a constant thing.....clear, re-clear, clear more, re-clear more.  

At some point, they brought in an expert on jungle growth, and he explained the facts to the engineering crew.....unless a fair amount of chemical efforts were employed....the trail would never remain jungle-free.  He figured in a ten-year period after completion....most of the road would be washed-out or jungled-up enough....that it would not exist.  

Amazingly enough....that was the end-point of this 'exercise'.  

Between the rain cycle, fertile soil, and limited use of trails/roads.....the jungle was pretty much locked-in to exist.  

Riot?

 Cops have started to talk about a 'riot' from last night....in Trier.  

What is generally said....German cops got called to a local disco in the west part of Trier.  Several cars pull up....probably ten policemen in the first group.  

Arguments had escalated at the club, and there were allegations of bodily harm. 

Things then got out of hand....with a group of forty-odd customers reacting to the police presence, and the arrest of two guys.  Cops reacted with pepper-spray to control the crowd.  Then cops say the attackers used beer bottles, broom-sticks, shovels, and iron bars on them.  

At some point.....one of the police felt the situation was going in a fairly negative way.....pulled his pistol and fired two rounds to get everyone's attention.  The 'assault' then stopped.  

A lot of talk now about additional charges.  

A lot of action by drunks?  Well....that's the unfortunate view....especially since this started shortly after midnight.  

Trier itself?  It's a town of 110,000 residents, and fairly quiet.  I lived around the region in the 1990s for 15 months.  Other than the university, the Roman history background and the rural setting....it's really not known for much.

After the two shots fired....that probably woke up everyone within a kilometer, and resulted more calls to the police about 'shots fired'.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Someone added up the carbon 'footprint' of the Foreign Minister (Baerbock, Green Party) and she's used the most carbon of any minister.  

Yeah, it'll be openly discussed if she really needs to travel as much as she does....for appearances.

If you watch public TV (ARD or ZDF) nightly, I'd say at least three days a week....Baerbock is on the road outside of Germany.  Internationally, she might be more 'known' than Scholz (the Chancellor).  

2.  What's all this refugee chatter going on between the states and the German federal gov't?

Well....this gets down to a large segment of non-German kids who need extra attention in schools, and the current program doesn't really budget for what is required.  Then you toss in living costs, and language classes.  The sixteen German states are saying 'enough'.....you need to put more money into the pot.

The Interior and Finance Ministers?  The kind of money discussed....is simply not there....because they spent a lot on the Ukraine issue.

I would imagine we are two or three months from a showdown where the sixteen states refuse to accept any more migrants.  

3.  Via Focus this AM....some NATO folks have now said that 'elite' Russians units is a joke, and for offensive value....it's pretty marginal.

4.  The head of the Duma (Russia's parliament) has now said he wants the US to compensate for the destruction of the Nord Stream I/II pipelines.  It'll be curious how this works its way through court, and if they have 'other' evidence.  

Estimated cost?  About a month ago, I read one estimate that placed the repairs at around one-billion dollars. 

5.  Offering comments on public TV stories?  

There is typically a brief period (sometimes no longer than 8 hours) that you can offer up a comment about a story on their web site.  Chief reason?  The commentary has to be evaluated by a public TV host, and then moderated.  

So, yeah, there might forty critical comments made over some story, and in the end....only five make it through the moderation process.  

Course, the opposite is true as well....forty positive comments might be made, and only a dozen of those might survive the moderation process.  

I should note.....emoji language never gets past the moderation process on public TV boards.  

I will say this....if you wanted to offer a critique or criticism....over a public TV story....you might as well write it with chalk on the sidewalk for public consumption (you'd have better odds of reaching more people).  

Why Do Germans Seem So Stressed Out?

 In the late 1970s, when I was assigned in Germany for two years....I never noticed any burn-out or stress issues with most Germans.  If something bothered them (particularly there at work)....they'd just cut loose a 5-minute lecture (with profanity) about how this was supposed work this way, or this was the failure of 'Martin' (the planning guy in the front office).  

Even when I returned in the mid-1980s......I kinda noticed the same thing.  People were able to get things off their chest and feel better about some screwed-up situation.

But as I returned again in 1993....that was a time of evolution....things were changing.

You'd notice less lectures, and just grumbling....like they didn't want to discuss the situation in front of people, or give hype to the failures of planning.  

So in this era of the 1990s.....vacations seemed to be the solution to this bundled-up anger.  You'd go off for two to three weeks.....get over your anger and frustrations.

In the past twenty years?  I would suggest around of German society is in a permanent game of pressure...without much relief except the summer vacation.  

What's really going on?  I would suggest four key elements:

1.  Germans have this anticipation that things are built to meet expectations....so if the train arrives eight minutes late.....it bothers them.  If the train is mid-way to Frankfurt and halts for sixteen minutes because of oncoming traffic?  Well...that shouldn't happen.  

The telephone problem which requires eighteen days before a technician can come out to fix the problem?  Again....in their mind, it should not be this way.

2.  German acceptance of marginally-competent people?  It's probably at a all-time low.  

Just being a average 'slacker'....won't cut it with half of German society now.

3.  Realization that PhD folks might not be that bright?  In a quiet bar setting, you might find a fair number of Germans now talking over the chief-director of the company, or Doctor-so-V-so....who is fairly incompetent and not up to the task.

4.  Just in general, when you look at the design of processes.....how a train works, or how a bank functions...or how the cellphone network is built.....it's like a thousand processes bundled together and any of them can fail.....triggering a 'ultra-bad' day.

Germans have become critical of these designs and complexity geared to a fairly advanced society.

Covid?  It came along and offered an entirely different situation of stress problems.  You couldn't go to your favorite bar hangout.  You couldn't discuss matters with your drinking buddy.  

So this is like an anchor....dragging them along, and the stress builds up daily over the little things.  

Q-and-A

 1.  What 'encouraged' people around Europe (not just Germany) to look at alternate news sources, involving differing views and aspects, and bringing potential propaganda into their living room?

I would suggest in the past twenty years....a theme by the original news 'crowd' of one message or a single interpretation of events....led people to be more skeptical and asking for a alternate view of matters.

Social media fell into play....offering a 'vehicle' to deliver it to your front doorstep.

As much as the original team wants to correct this and put the fake news or alternate news out of business....they would have to correct the one message syndrome.  Without the correction or telling both sides of a story....this correction business will fall flat.

2.  Will fighter jets ever be 'gifted' from NATO countries to the Ukraine?

On my betting agenda, this would be a one-in-ten-thousand situation.  I think most every country sees this as a problem, and encourages Ukraine into crossing the border into Russia, thus escalating the war.  So, this will end up as a high-chat situation but no one will ever deliver fighter jets to the Ukraine.

3.  How did the CDU Party gain votes in the Berlin election from this past Sunday?

Well....it's interesting to look at the graphic chart.  The right-of-center CDU got votes from literally all five alternate parties.

60k voters from 2021's election for the SPD.....crossed the line and voted CDU.  From the Green Party?  17k.  From the Linke Party, 11k.  

Analysts suggest a sour view from the general public of the city....over how things have progressed in the past 18 months.

4.  Is there a QAnon Party organizing in Germany?

Well....RBB (public TV for Berlin) suggests that a initial party meeting is up on the schedule in the Falkensee area.

However, the group is trying to say this meeting is purely social in nature.  

If you asked me on interest in Germany in the 'cult-like' group....I'd say it's less than 2,000 people over the entire country.  It wouldn't shock me if 200 folks showed up at the party meeting, and half were journalists from the public TV networks....acting as fake interested parties.

5.  All of these 450-odd ballots found in the post office in Berlin....to be counted now....were mail-in situations?

Yes.  These were people who were going to be on vacation, or in a hospital, or unable to vote on that Sunday.  So they asked for a early ballot, and mailed it via the postal system. 

I should add....no one at this point thinks any of this 450-odd ballot thing is a fraud.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  German gov't has announced that starting in September.....when you buy a new vehicle....you will not have to visit the vehicle registration office.  You will be able to submit everything via an internet portal.  

A big deal?  Well....German car registration used to be one of the top ten stress events that one would go through.  

2.  Strike action at Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich airports on Friday.  Complete shutdown announced last night.

3.  The Interior Minister strongly hinted yesterday....that for today's meeting with state officials and the discussion on refugee housing....don't go expecting more funds.  The Finance Minister agreed....saying there's just not much funding to go around.

4.  In the state of NRW, apparently some BS rumor started up on social media last night, and suddenly....a number of people (probably into the hundreds) believed an earthquake was about to occur.  WELT says some left their homes and were in some chaos-thought process.

5.  There was some suggestion yesterday that NATO will take on the protection of natural gas lines (under the water) in the region of Germany, Denmark, and Norway.  How?  It was not really explained....that some military unit would be given a 'responsibility'.  It does sound like some excuse to go and buy x-number of submarines.  

Five Observations

 1.  My take on Nicola Sturgeon resigning as head of the Scottish gov't and her party?

For the SNP, they needed some fresh new angle and face.  Sturgeon has been around as THE face since 2014, and I would suggest for the past four years, there wasn't much significant to talk about.

Around Glasgow?  She's like Lady Gaga, Elvis and Jesus wrapped up into a single person.  Beyond that...outside of Glasgow, just about everyone had some criticism to offer.  

John Swinny to move up a step?  I'm not that convinced.  He's also been in his position since 2014, and some folks might be wanting a significant change.

2.  There is some raging German debate going on....about people dressing for carnival/Fasching as American Indians.  The negative given?  Cultural appropriation.   There are some Germans walking around and wanting to give you a lecture, if you happened to be dressed as an Indian.

I'll just offer this.....of the 1,000-odd costumes that the Fasching shops offer....you can probably find some argument against at least 300 of them.  Perhaps we should just offer a paid-waiver that you'd buy for 17 Euro, and it would allow you the 'gift' of appropriation for one day a year.

3.  We had this odd incident where a dance 'show' opened up for a premiere in Hanover.  The journalist-critic for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (I'd regard them as one of the five major newspapers in Germany).....wrote a fairly negative piece.

The choreographer of the show?  Marco Goecke.

Apparently Goecke didn't take the criticism well.  Goecke approached the critic, and smeared dog-crap in the face.

Yeah, it was rather juvenile in nature. Goecke has gone and said he was sorry for act.  Around various social media sites.....the dog-crap incident is still openly discussed. 

4.  There's a political discussion in the Bundestag.....to allow the garbage bins behind grocery stores....to be open to 'dumpster-divers'.  Currently, it's supposed to be illegal to go through their dumpster.....with fruit and vegetables thrown out.  

5.  There's supposed to be a federal-and-state meeting tomorrow (Thursday) on the immigration crisis in Germany.

In blunt terms....they are running out of housing.  The states are telling the fed folks.....either you come up with serious money/funding....or we halt acceptance.  

Is this a different situation than 2014/2015?  I would argue that there are a dozen problems playing out....some relate to same issues of 8 years ago.....some are fresh new concerns.  

Digging Incident

 This AM in Frankfurt....there was a construction project where digging was required, and they hit several fiber-optic lines.....so internet use around the greater-Frankfurt area, including the airport....has been shutdown.  This won't be resolved until late afternoon.

Affected?  Well....the airport sent arriving planes to Koln, Nuremberg, and Dusseldorf.  A lot of people who were supposed to be re-connecting....are screwed at this point.

Even the soccer team Bayern Munich was unable to take off from Paris to return home this morning.

Q-and-A

 1.  Is the Russia-Ukraine war an impossible war for Russia to win at this point?

Well....just in general at this point, Russia has lost 100,000 men (either dead, captured, given up, or wounded-enough).  Most general estimates suggest that 1,000 Russian tanks have been destroyed and left by the side of the road.  I saw an estimate this week that a minimum of 400 Russian tanks were not destroyed, but ran out of fuel and ended up in the hands of the Ukrainians.  

The Russian military at this point....doesn't have the hardware or the general recon capability that Ukraine has exercised (through it's NATO 'friends').  Even if a spring offensive is started....there's just not much of a way to reset the landscape in favor of the Russians....unless you go nuclear.

Can Russia stall this and keep some offensive going through the end of 2023?  Absolutely....throwing another 100,000 men into a dead-end war.  The key problem to this logic....these are mostly all reservists, and they won't be returning to their jobs in the civilian sector.  All you see is secondary problems brewing left and right....as the economy sputters along.

2.  Is there really a housing crisis in Germany at present?

What you have are 'magnet' urban areas that have a positive job market, and the affordable housing market is non-existent.  

The public somehow believes that the political spectrum will correct this, but to be honest....other than being five years behind the power-curve, there's nothing much to solve this mess.

3.  Can one identify as a 'Viking'?

I sat and watched a carnival piece last night on German TV (yes, it is that time of year).  The guy in question picked up the hot US topic.....people identifying as 'X' or 'Y'....but he went the other way and identified as a Viking.  

I sat and thought about it.

Naturally, some would yell 'cultural appropriation' here.  But actually.....who makes these rules?  Can't someone identify as mentally deranged, and be a regular Viking? I don't remember the Vikings having some club, or mandatory rules.  

The 1898 German National Election

 One can make the case that almost every German federal election is an 'epic' saga.  1898 to me....is an interesting case for a government study.

In the end, out of 398 seats....23 different political parties held seats.  

The Centre Party ended up with the most seats.  Describing them?  Mostly leaning to the right, have a Catholic Church attachment, and having a standing on spending limits for the states and federal government.

This being a district by district election?  When you can find a map of district results....it probably will surprise you how you could have regional strongholds of X-party, and next to it.....another district with a totally different party holds 'power'.

So many parties making a coalition difficult?  I would offer this example as strong evidence.  As long as you could get 8,000 votes....you were figured to get a minimum of one representative seat.  

Regarding Those 'New' Votes Found From The Berlin Election

 This AM, around 9:30.....the authorities say they will open the 450-odd ballots found yesterday, and do a count.  Released of the information?  Well....oddly, they say they won't announce anything until Monday morning.

This turning into a big deal?  There's roughly 105 votes separating the 2nd place SPD Party and 3rd place Green Party.  The general view is that from the 450-odd ballots....the Greens will emerge as the 2nd place winner.  

At that point, the odds of Giffey (SPD Party) keeping her mayor job will dissolve away.  

All of this being a bit odd?  These were mail-in ballots, which the post office seems to have done the right thing up to a certain point....then failed to bring them to the correct building for the final count.  

I will say....for drama purposes....it pushed things up a notch or two.  

Russian Trends

 There's an excellent Vlog out there on the Russian economic trend, which recommend.  He throws some data (by the Russians into the mix, but also gives you some trend analysis.

There are 2 things I will suggest on the Russia end-game:

1.  They will be able to fill the cash box with oil sales.....mostly to China and India.  On natural gas?  The only way to recover is to build more pipelines, and that technology and expertise is mostly European/American.  

2.  As for profits coming back to normal?  Well.....once you figure x-amount has to go toward military equipment replacement, then the Oligarch folks take their cut, and the Kremlin takes a cut to run government services....there's nothing much left for the private Russian sector.  

For the next five years....I see zero growth for the general Russian, and mostly a stalled economy.  

Activist Story

 I noticed this in WELT news today....they were talking over the Last Generation activists, and how the court situations have gone so far in the Berlin area.

So around 550 activists were given summons to appear in court.  Normally, you'd expect 10-percent minimum....to be acquitted, either through the fault of the prosecution or the police.

Well....NONE of the 550 have been acquitted.  Statistically, for the activists, it's not a good feeling.

Another topic....on how you unglue the activists from the pavement....the Berlin cops have a special way of handling this.  Apparently a vegetable-like oil is applied, and with a spatula being used....the glued hand is loosened in roughly 10 minutes.  

What Was the Exchange Rate of the East German Ostmark for the West German D-Mark?

 One to one.

Prior to the Wall coming down....if you were walking around East Germany and wanted to exchange D-Marks....the rate was generally five to ten Ostmarks....to buy one single D-Mark.

There was some discussion after the Wall came down and the fairness rule created....was that it'd be a one-to-one exchange.  

In the end...East Germans brought in 431-billion Ostmarks, and were given D-Marks.  Yeah, you could say that the true value here was crap, but that was among forty-odd things done to make it fair.  431-billion D-Marks were more or less invented out of thin air, in the end.  

Update On Berlin Election

 Well....it is a little story here in the Berlin Sunday election to tell.

What separates 2nd place winner SPD from 3rd place Green Party....is 105 votes.  Yes, that's it.

So it's odd today....the chief of the voting business for the city now says that roughly 455 ballots (already cast) were picked up at the city postal system today, and have yet to be counted.

Changing the outcome?  No one says much.

The ballots coming from a district that voted a bit more for the Green Party?  Yeah. 

My humble view....the ballots will be counted, and announced by 9 AM tomorrow....with two out of five being for the Green Party, and the rest divided among the Linke Party, SPD and CDU.  I would guess in the end....the Greens lead by a minimum of 25 votes in 2nd place.  

A big deal?  It puts the SPD in a position....even if they were to get a coalition going....the city mayor would have to be a Green Party person, and the SPD would be a junior-partner.

UPDATE: The updated vote business?  It won't be done until Friday.  Some Germans aren't going to buy into the delay business.

Just Three Things

 1.  This is a graphic chart of the neighborhoods in Berlin, and the winner of each district in Sunday's election.  It is rather odd....the whole outer wing (one exception) is a CDU - win area.

The middle of town?  A Green Party - victory area.  

The blue area to the far right?  AfD.  Remainder is SPD.

Says a lot about the way that people perceive the current political scene in the city.

2.  I asked my German wife....why aren't there UFO's flying over Germany?  I got a 6-minute lecture not to bring up BS UFO crap.

3.  Focus had a piece today....saying for a number of months....Putin never travels by air.  If there is some report of him flying from Moscow to X....it's a BS story.

He travels beyond Moscow ONLY on board a train.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus had an update on the Ukraine-Russia war.  British military has now said that they figure on average.....Putin loses around 824 soldiers a day (either dead or wounded enough to not be part of the war any longer).  

BS-stuff?  Well....even if it were true....I doubt that the Russian Generals would report this back to Putin.

2.  Building of a city-state government in Berlin after the election?  CDU (clear winner) is having talks with the SPD, and the Greens.  The SPD is hinting that they will move out the current mayor (Giffey).....bring in a new face, and attempt to build a SPD-Green-Linke Party coalition instead (they would have just enough votes to run the gov't). 

One poll from Sunday indicated this was a big negative with the public, and 70-percent were against a SPD-lead government.  

3.  N-TV discussed the upcoming Bahn ticket deal (49-Euro per month).  Warning already being given that the 49-Euro amount cannot be sustained, and it'll flip higher by early 2024.  Presently, to make the 49-Euro ticket work....the federal government is willing to put around 1-billion Euro extra in the pot for 2023 (ticket only starts selling in May).  

Personally, if you tried to purchase such a ticket prior to all this flat-fee stuff....a monthly ticket would have been in the 100-to-120 Euro a month range, depending on your region, and limited to your local area.  The new design.....as long as you travel on regional trains, subway systems, and local buses....it'll be 49-Euro a month. 

I'm betting by early 2024, it'll be a minimum of sixty-five Euro a month.

4.  The 'Hart Aber Fair' public forum show from last night (9 PM, ARD, Channel One)....was about the Ukraine war and where things are going.

They tried to be fair and have a anti-war member on the panel (from the Linke Party).  

I'd say the key thing you'd take home from the balance of the public forum....the war does not end until Putin is no longer in the picture.  

5.  I noted off BILD this AM....the McDonalds McRib sandwich is in trouble in Germany.  For those who weren't aware....it's a full-time menu item here in Germany and fairly popular.  

News indicates in various locations....they've run out of the McRib, and can't offer it on the menu list. Related to the Ukraine war?  No....just a general issue in procuring the pork.  

Encapsulating 'Wirecard' Into Six Lines?

 One biggest scandals in the past hundred years of German business....has been the Wirecard episode.  If you tried to sit and listen to the public TV journalists?  It would turn into a 30-minute episode and to about half the German population....it'd make little sense.

So, this is my attempt to explain it in six lines:

Wirecard was designed and released in 1999 as this 'follow-on' to Paypal.  It was to be a German-based company that processed payments and 'acted' as a bank (holding a license).  In design, they were built as a perfect money-laundering vehicle, with money leading to various countries.  At some point, 20 years into business, they had an audit and the bank said they had $1.9-billion 'laying around' (in the Philippines).  The audit crew went there and found no such money.    Then came the end.

Explaining German States

 Most people see Germany (or the Federal Republic of Germany) as one single land....but it's divided into sixteen 'states'.  

So this is the explanation and the logical way to view this.

You have Saxony, Thuringia, and Bavaria which refer to themselves as Freistaat or free-states.  This term 'Freistaat' is really a Latin term which has been around for around 200 years.

This status being more of a 'gimmick' than anything else?  I'd argue that.  

Berlin and Hamburg then come up as Stadtstaaten (city-states).

Then you have the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen, includes both Bremen and Bremerhaven combined).

Then you have the remaining 10 states which fit into what you'd call Flächenländer, or area states). 

The Opinion Essay

 If you could pick up a copy of WELT today....there's a great piece written by Norbert Bolz....entitled: "The Enslavement of One's Own Opinion".    It's worth a read.

The emphasis of the piece?  People spend a lot of time talking....trying share their own individuality and thinking....with diverse ideas in the middle of this.  

The mass media?  It spends a fair amount of time also talking....but trying to get you to one single opinion....one logic....one end-conclusion.  

In the end....you have a fake like-mindedness, which you seem to be unconvinced of it making sense.

Tribal creation?  After a while....you start to ponder upon it and come to some conclusion that the end-result....whether planned or just accidental....is that a tribe of some sort will exist, and they are led to some particular way of viewing a problem or situation.  As open-minded as each might pretend to be....they can only have one opinion at the end.  

Kinda funny....if you think about it.  

The Problem In Being More Resilient

 I sat and reviewed an article from the AP....concerning Germany.

The emphasis?  Google has some type of partnership brewing in Germany, with the coalition gov't....where a new anti-misinformation campaign will start up.  The push?  Basically to make the general public of Germany 'more resilient' to digital misinformation.

How this will occur?  A number of short video clips to layout the way that fake stories are created and built to make you think something false.

Where the ads will appear?  They say on regular platforms (YouTube/TikTok/etc).

This is a concept that's been out for a couple of years and called 'pre-bunking'.

I sat and pondered over this, and how the German gov't might perceive this as a big positive.

But then I came to a rational end-point which isn't that pleasant.  Once you start training people to see BS or be skeptical.....they don't just do it for fake stories or propaganda......they start getting skeptical when any government statement comes out, or some virus-guidance is mandated, or when some environmentalist suggests X or Y will destroy our society.

The tech company and their 'army' thinking they are doing the society a great favor?  Obviously.  

I would suggest that somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of German society now have some 'hard-wired' skepticism built in presently.  Literally any topic can be immediately dragged out and questioned to the legit or fake nature.  But thanks to Goggle....we can double that number in just two or three years.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  German gov't says that if you are a ethnic Turk in Germany (either born here or holding a visa).....if you have relatives in the earthquake area of Turkey and want to bring them to Germany for a period of time.....the visa can be done in five work-days.  

Yeah, I'm shocked they could wrap up in such a short period of time.  

As for how many will take the relatives in?  Anyone's guess.  It wouldn't shock me if half-a-million Turks were to arrive in the next six weeks.

2.  One odd aspect of the Berlin election.....if you take a district by district graphic map, it'll show all of the outer neighborhoods (the outer ring) with the CDU as the winner (meaning right-of-center political scene).  The inner-ring?  It's split....50-50, with the SPD or Greens as the primary winner.  

The inner-city leaning more toward left-of-center?  Apparently so.  

3.  I watched a N-TV business segment over Russia.  The 'push'?  Oil-wise, Russia is headed for trouble in finding customers and ways of moving significant oil around.  They were left unprepared for the trouble they now face.

4.  Interesting statistic talked about this weekend for Germany.  By 2030, they expect a national shortage of 87,000 bus drivers.  Some companies are calling for a radical amount of changes in the training program....to fill the vacancies expected.

Four Things To Take Home From the Berlin Election Yesterday

 1.  It is rather odd....the city called out an extra 1,000 policemen for security and patrol.  Reason given?  Simply to re-enforce the idea that the streets were 'safe'.  Yeah, it's a bit odd, but perhaps this was the sole reason for the added patrols.

2.  Polling took place as people finished voting.  It didn't matter who was doing the polls....the comeback from the public in 60-to-70 percent of those asked....are you happy with the present political process in Berlin (the city)....the answer was 'NO'.

There's a serious amount of frustration brewing....mostly over failed promises, and the continual 'we-can-fix-this' chatter.

This is not pointed at any one particular party though....all of the parties are getting 'dumped' upon.

3.  Another question asked in the polling.....how to build a coalition government to lead the city....came to a pretty crazy situation.

When you laid out the three possible coalition options (CDU-Greens, CDU-SPD, SPD-Greens-Linke)....a minimum of 60-percent of the public were against all three.  Yes.....in fact, on the last option (SPD-Greens-Linke Party), if you believe the polling, almost 70-percent of people were against this option.

4.  Folks weren't really hyped-up for the election....only 62-percent of registered voters showed up.  

Next election for Berlin (the city)?  Fall 2025.

Any of this affecting the fall state elections in Hessen or Bavaria?  Well....in Bavaria, polling says that the CSU Party will likely take a minimum of 40-percent of the voting, with the SPD Party going a dismal 5th place (maybe 8-percent). This was before the results in Berlin last night.

As for Hessen, presently, the CDU and SPD are neck and neck.....this Berlin loss for the SPD.....might hinder them to some degree in Hessen.  

What's The Angle Of The Supposed US Orchestrated Bombing of Nord Stream I/II Pipelines?

 If the story is true (at this point, the German gov't has just avoided talking over the issue)....the US and Norway orchestrated the bombing of the Nord Stream pipes?

It would lead you to a small core-group within the White House (probably not President Biden) who generally believed the Scholz SPD-led-coalition did not have the guts/willpower....to continue a boycott of Russian natural gas.  

At some point in the week prior to 22 September 2022....the US decision would then move to the idea of destroying the pipeline....rather than allow the Scholz gov't to be forced into buying natural gas via Russia.

Lack of trust?  I would probably agree with that view.

If you remove the pipelines, there's no opportunity for political persuasion to occur.  It's like removing certain cards from a deck, and knowing that various winning hands are now unavailable.

What's it really say about status of Scholz and the coalition?  Well....it's not a pleasant thing to lay it out....there's just not that much trust.

Scholz wanting to tell his story....that he knew from January of 2022....this event would occur sooner or later?  Maybe....I would suggest at this point....it's not a story that wins any votes, and really demonstrates a long-term problem in relationships.

At some point, the war will come to an end (Putin is probably not going to exist at that point), and there's going to be a meeting of the Nord Stream folks and the German government.  

There has to be some closure on the problems/issues of the Ukraine....but Nord Stream will be resolved/fixed, and the purchase of Russian natural gas will start up.  I doubt if the Germans will agree to buy in some massive way....as they did prior to 2022....but I would suggest that one-third of requirements will be Russian natural gas in the end....at higher prices than existed in 2021.  

All of this to be forgotten?  There's two state elections in Germany in the fall (Hessen and Bavaria).  There's three state elections in the fall of 2024 (Brandenburg, Sachsen, Thüringen).  I would expect the AfD Party to make a strong anti-US campaign....dragging this out and expanding on national criticism of American politics.

It may not make sense, but this sabotage was about trust or lack of trust, and the way that people observe the coalition.  It also begs the question.....if this was the Merkel coalition....would the same thing have occurred (I suspect so)?

I should add at this point....few of the Germans news media 'avenues' are telling the story.  ARD (public TV, Channel One)?  They gave a basic introduction and gave it some negative marks on believability....mostly hinting it as 'fake news'.  

Berlin City Election Results?

 CDU was the big winner with 27.4-percent of the vote.

The SPD and Greens.....practically tied at 18.4-percent each.

FDP at 4.6 percent.

AfD at 9.0-percent.

Linke Part at 12.6-percent.

If you look back 18 months....the SPD lost around 4 points off their previous 'win'.

How Close Did We Come To Having The Saar 'Nation'?

 The Saarland is a German state....to the far west....bordering France.  

After WW II....it was a protected area and under France's control.  In the early 1950s, there was a discussion in France....to allow the Saar region to go independent....more or less to become like Luxembourg.

A vote was held in October 1955, with roughly 95-percent of the population showing up to vote.

By a two-to-one edge...the public voted to decline the independence angle.

Roughly a year after this....France agreed to do the Saarland exit and the rejoining to West Germany (occurring in January of 1956).  Two and a half years go by, and the West German D-mark is introduced into the Saarland....replacing the French Franc.

Berlin Election Today

 Election today in the city of Berlin today (there are three city-states in Germany: Berlin, Bremen, and Hamburg for reference). 

Polling from past week says that the CDU will come out ahead.....SPD will be five to seven points behind them. 

What drives this election?  The 21 September 2021 election in the city....fell apart.  I would suggest two main causes: (1) a marathon was held on this Sunday and it made for various logistical problems. (2) Back in early 2021, the Covid vaccine came out and Berlin authorities made a deal if you volunteered to be a election-worker, you went to the front of the vax line.  Well....lot of folks did that, and as August rolled around....a number of these vaxed-up people said 'no thanks'....refusing to be a poll-worker.  This triggered a shortage of workers in various districts.

What's happened in the city since then....to frustrate people?  I would suggest that the SPD-Green-Linke Party-led city.....has crapped-up a bit....angering residents....and driving more people toward the CDU Party.

Also, I'd add the events of Silvester 2022 (31 Dec), and the fact that still as of today....no serious charges against the people who threatened the police, or firemen for that evening.