I'm not saying when this event will occur, but there four landscapes I see in place at the bitter end.
1. Russia being a top ten or top fifteen 'power'? No.
GDP-wise, Russia will slip from the number eleven position on GDP....to around twenty-to-twenty-five, and they won't be improving their position for a minimum of two decades.
I also don't think the population at present in Russia will stay. Just my humble view, but at least 500,000 probably will leave this year, and the same number number for 2024.
2. Whoever replaces Putin (he has to be dead for the conclusion to occur)....will have a period of employment with the FSB (former KGB), and have little experience at running any gov't organization.
3. Ukraine will require more than 1-trillion dollars for the rebuilding effort, and as much as Russia is responsible....the west will get the bill for half-a-trillion.
4. No one in Russia will ever know how many men were killed-in-action over the war. Even Putin, or Putin's replacement. It'll be forever a mystery number.
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