Five states hold elections in 2027:
18.04. Schleswig-Holstein
18.04. Saarland
25.04. Nordrhein-Westfalen
30.05. Bremen
Sep/Oct Niedersachsen
As you get to the end of May (4th election)....if the CDU is marginally showing positive numbers or winning....I see Merz under heavy pressure to resign. If the CDU can win 3 of these....he probably stays on.
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