Looking back at BREXIT and the youth vote, there is this odd factor that few ever dig into. I sat and looked at the statistics from March of 2015....over youth unemployment (age 16 to 25).
Germany currently has the best results.....7.2-percent of the youth in this age group are unemployed.
Czech? 14.9-percent unemployed for this 16 to 25 year old age group.
UK? 15.7-percent unemployed.
Ireland? 21.3-percent unemployed.
France? 24.5-percent unemployed.
Spain? 49.9-percent unemployed.
I used Eurostat for the source of the data.
The thing is....while the youth really came out voted great for the EU and to stay in......the EU hasn't exactly been a job-creator over the past decade.
Look at Italy and 42.7-percent unemployed for kids in this 16 to 25 age group. Other than putting more kids into the Italian military and hoping that some training program or certification program charms some employer to hire some kid.....there's not much happening in any European state that ought to make the young voters happy.
Are the young voters sharp enough to figure this out? I kinda doubt it.
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Monday, June 27, 2016
If the EU Could Regulate......
I was mostly amused around two years ago when the EU came up and tried to regulate those silly generic bottles on Italian or Greek restaurant tables which dispense a generic olive oil or vinegar, forcing the restaurants to buy commercial brand bottles instead with labels. Last year, I was amused when the EU said vacuum cleaners needed to be regulated.....limiting the wattage to 1600 watts of power. I was amused three weeks ago when I learned that the EU was hoping to regulate toasters, hair dryers, and tea pot boilers. So, this is my list of things that I won't be surprised to learn over the next five years.....to find them regulated in some fashion.
1. Garden water hoses.
2. Candle-stick holders.
3. Fold-up garden chairs.
4. Ceiling fans.
5. Toothpick dispensers.
6. Flushing devices on toilets.
7. Fishing poles.
8. Cat-trees.
9. Straw-hats.
10. Water-piks.
The sad thing is that they are simply folks standing around and looking for something to do, and without asking anyone.....they prioritize their life and purpose along some wasted effort with no real payback.
1. Garden water hoses.
2. Candle-stick holders.
3. Fold-up garden chairs.
4. Ceiling fans.
5. Toothpick dispensers.
6. Flushing devices on toilets.
7. Fishing poles.
8. Cat-trees.
9. Straw-hats.
10. Water-piks.
The sad thing is that they are simply folks standing around and looking for something to do, and without asking anyone.....they prioritize their life and purpose along some wasted effort with no real payback.
The Refugee Center Story
My son, the kitchen-salesman, had a curious purchase deal over the past six weeks....and related this story yesterday over a bar-b-q. He works for a German furniture company in the Pfalz region of Germany, and only deals with kitchens.
So, this guy came up and wanted 30-odd kitchenettes. My son is used to dealing with a person who simply wants one single kitchen so this kinda begged some questions.
This was a German guy.....late twenties.....who seemed a bit clever. His story was a curious one.
He lived in a town in the Pfalz and there was political pressure put upon the town, to do their part on refugees. They had a requirement to put up a refugee center.....which no one from the town had any experience with or really desired to get into the operation. This guy was a private individual who was a handy-man on the side. He asked what the financial side of this would be.
The village wanted a place big enough to house 30 families....nothing fancy, but you had to supply everything (beds, chairs, towels, pillows, etc). They would cover the set-up costs and the contents of the place, then pay 'rent' for each month. This was worked up in a way for a long-term deal.....at least three years.
So the young guy went out, and found a unused warehouse in the town, that was begging for a renter. He presented his deal to the village, and they accepted.
He spent two or three months putting up enough walls and fixing up a men's bathroom and a women's bathroom. Each compartment would have heat, electricity, a door and a open area for a couple of beds and a sofa or two, with a TV. Each would have a kitchenette.
The pay-off? This is where my son grinned. The monthly payment to this guy for running this establishment is 30,000 Euro ($36,000). You can take out the rent required of the building, heat, electricity, water, and garbage fees. There's probably a minimum-wage clean-up guy in the mix of things for the facility. But this guy ought to be taking home 18,000 Euro a month ($21,000). At the end of the year.....with taxes taken.....he ought to have made 140,000 Euro.....which is a fair sum of money for a young guy. Once up and running....other than driving by once a day and making sure everything is operational....that's it....it runs itself. An hour of work per day at best.
I pointed out though.....there's no way that this refugee episode will continue on forever. My son disagreed. His thoughts were.....there's always conflicts underway somewhere in the world, and all of these people have some internet feed which leads them to pick Germany of all places to walk into and immigrate. He thinks the young guy has a guaranteed gimmick for at least a decade. I sat there thinking over this.....this guy by age 40.....could be a millionaire (if wisely investing his money), and it's all because of refugees and cheap housing. He's just clever to figure out how to make a simple idea into a practical business.
So, this guy came up and wanted 30-odd kitchenettes. My son is used to dealing with a person who simply wants one single kitchen so this kinda begged some questions.
This was a German guy.....late twenties.....who seemed a bit clever. His story was a curious one.
He lived in a town in the Pfalz and there was political pressure put upon the town, to do their part on refugees. They had a requirement to put up a refugee center.....which no one from the town had any experience with or really desired to get into the operation. This guy was a private individual who was a handy-man on the side. He asked what the financial side of this would be.
The village wanted a place big enough to house 30 families....nothing fancy, but you had to supply everything (beds, chairs, towels, pillows, etc). They would cover the set-up costs and the contents of the place, then pay 'rent' for each month. This was worked up in a way for a long-term deal.....at least three years.
So the young guy went out, and found a unused warehouse in the town, that was begging for a renter. He presented his deal to the village, and they accepted.
He spent two or three months putting up enough walls and fixing up a men's bathroom and a women's bathroom. Each compartment would have heat, electricity, a door and a open area for a couple of beds and a sofa or two, with a TV. Each would have a kitchenette.
The pay-off? This is where my son grinned. The monthly payment to this guy for running this establishment is 30,000 Euro ($36,000). You can take out the rent required of the building, heat, electricity, water, and garbage fees. There's probably a minimum-wage clean-up guy in the mix of things for the facility. But this guy ought to be taking home 18,000 Euro a month ($21,000). At the end of the year.....with taxes taken.....he ought to have made 140,000 Euro.....which is a fair sum of money for a young guy. Once up and running....other than driving by once a day and making sure everything is operational....that's it....it runs itself. An hour of work per day at best.
I pointed out though.....there's no way that this refugee episode will continue on forever. My son disagreed. His thoughts were.....there's always conflicts underway somewhere in the world, and all of these people have some internet feed which leads them to pick Germany of all places to walk into and immigrate. He thinks the young guy has a guaranteed gimmick for at least a decade. I sat there thinking over this.....this guy by age 40.....could be a millionaire (if wisely investing his money), and it's all because of refugees and cheap housing. He's just clever to figure out how to make a simple idea into a practical business.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
The Xenophobia Word
It is an odd thing to observe German intellectuals at work, and on occasion when immigration comes up.....to cast a negative light upon the opposing individual....the term Xenophobia will be used. Naturally, it's meaning is that you have a phobia and are irrationally against foreigners....to the extent that your mental health is displaying a disorder.
So, you go back and examine....where the heck did the word Xenophobia first get created?
Well...in 1903 with W E B du Bois....an essayist, civil rights activist, writer, and sociologist.
It's a distinguished career for du Bois.....but at no point was he ever a doctor or a mental disorder physician. So, he coined a catch-phrase to fit for one of his essays.....but it appears that no actual doctor ever aligned the phrase to an actual health disorder.
A fake word? Well....it fits well into literature and essays, but as an actual disorder? No.....it doesn't work.
It has been added into the phobia disorder handbook, but if you asked any of these guys to show the remarkable study that brought this into the modern study of phobias.....well....there is no such study.
I myself....have calor caeli phobia.....the irrational fear of hot air. Oddly, they've yet to around in the phobia book to add this particular phobia.
So, you go back and examine....where the heck did the word Xenophobia first get created?
Well...in 1903 with W E B du Bois....an essayist, civil rights activist, writer, and sociologist.
It's a distinguished career for du Bois.....but at no point was he ever a doctor or a mental disorder physician. So, he coined a catch-phrase to fit for one of his essays.....but it appears that no actual doctor ever aligned the phrase to an actual health disorder.
A fake word? Well....it fits well into literature and essays, but as an actual disorder? No.....it doesn't work.
It has been added into the phobia disorder handbook, but if you asked any of these guys to show the remarkable study that brought this into the modern study of phobias.....well....there is no such study.
I myself....have calor caeli phobia.....the irrational fear of hot air. Oddly, they've yet to around in the phobia book to add this particular phobia.
Friday, June 24, 2016
If I Were to Manage the German Immigration Program
Naturally, the Germans are not likely to hire me....as an American....to run one of their prime sources of political intrigue and chaos. Most would want to immediately asses me as right-wing or conservative, or just dump the xenophobic label on me to end the argument. But perhaps they might want to look at what I'd do:
1. Stand up and admit in public that the population problem is serious and immigration has no choice but to exist. Based on best numbers.....the 81-million German population by 2036 (20 years down the line) will be around 65-to-68 million residents....if NOTHING occurs to change the pace of things. The public needs to be brought into the circle and told the simple truth.
2. Start the thinking process toward 'smart-immigration'. There has to be a doorway, and people fill out the paperwork, get an evaluation before ever leaving their homeland, and told yes or no. I don't want anyone to waste walking 1,500 miles to reach Germany and be told they just won't pass the immigration test. End the process of accepting people who just walked across the border of getting immigration or asylum papers. If you want to claim refugee status, you go to a different form, and apply for a totally different status.
3. Refugees will be treated different from asylum or immigration folks. Various camps or center will be set up to handle just plain refugees who might be here for a year or two, then agreeably go back to their homeland when the war or issue ends. A refugee could also be flown out of the affected region and not have to walk all the way to Germany. But I'd have some Einstein-character sit down and come up with the number of refugees that Germany can handle. If it's 400,000....sitting in the camps and waiting to return.....then we don't go past 400,000. We decline to take anymore than the 400,000. Somewhere out there, there is such a smart guy who can assess what space Germany has and the reasonable cost of what they can handle.
4. Once you go into the immigration path on my program.....you agree to hold the citizenship of your country and agree to return to it....if you misbehave in a big way. A six-year probation period will be assigned to you. If you get arrested for violent assault or stealing cars.....your application is revoked, and you leave. If you act in a proper way for six years and show good citizenship traits......then you get the German citizenship.
5. The entry for immigration and asylum will be tied to your craft or education. If you have nothing in your background but flipping burgers in Burma.....we've got plenty of burger flippers in Germany and don't need to add more. I'd set aside 100,000 slots per year for people who might be young and fit into some language program and their craft or education fills a need into German society.
6. For any intellectual who wants to say things are unlimited....I'd remind them that everything cost money. If you bring in 300,000 people who can't find work or fit.....they end up on some stupid government welfare program, that costs money. That's money that you'd rob from bridge replacement or road repair. Anyone claiming it's all free and good.....well...no, it's not all free or good.
7. Put the information up front and say with some emphasis.....if you have a fairly conservative lifestyle and trying to immigrate into Germany.....and you got issues with certain people or being around women, than there would be a test of some sort....to let you know that you won't be able to adjust and fit into German society. It's not anything to weep over or get hostile about.....there are better countries which fit your conservative lifestyle, and make you happy.
8. Where ever you get settled into....for your initial six-year period of probation.....you stay in that state for the whole six years. If you pack up and move to another German state.....your application restarts from day one.
9. Establish that somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000 people probably can immigrate into Germany each year without causing a lot of chaos, confusion, or frustration. On this number, I'm only talking immigration and asylum....NOT refugees.
10. Finally, openly ID the funding and the cost levels for immigration....so that the public understands, and that intellectual journalists might grasp that nothing is free. When you reach the limit for incoming for the year.....you close the door and tell people to go elsewhere in Europe to find an open door.
1. Stand up and admit in public that the population problem is serious and immigration has no choice but to exist. Based on best numbers.....the 81-million German population by 2036 (20 years down the line) will be around 65-to-68 million residents....if NOTHING occurs to change the pace of things. The public needs to be brought into the circle and told the simple truth.
2. Start the thinking process toward 'smart-immigration'. There has to be a doorway, and people fill out the paperwork, get an evaluation before ever leaving their homeland, and told yes or no. I don't want anyone to waste walking 1,500 miles to reach Germany and be told they just won't pass the immigration test. End the process of accepting people who just walked across the border of getting immigration or asylum papers. If you want to claim refugee status, you go to a different form, and apply for a totally different status.
3. Refugees will be treated different from asylum or immigration folks. Various camps or center will be set up to handle just plain refugees who might be here for a year or two, then agreeably go back to their homeland when the war or issue ends. A refugee could also be flown out of the affected region and not have to walk all the way to Germany. But I'd have some Einstein-character sit down and come up with the number of refugees that Germany can handle. If it's 400,000....sitting in the camps and waiting to return.....then we don't go past 400,000. We decline to take anymore than the 400,000. Somewhere out there, there is such a smart guy who can assess what space Germany has and the reasonable cost of what they can handle.
4. Once you go into the immigration path on my program.....you agree to hold the citizenship of your country and agree to return to it....if you misbehave in a big way. A six-year probation period will be assigned to you. If you get arrested for violent assault or stealing cars.....your application is revoked, and you leave. If you act in a proper way for six years and show good citizenship traits......then you get the German citizenship.
5. The entry for immigration and asylum will be tied to your craft or education. If you have nothing in your background but flipping burgers in Burma.....we've got plenty of burger flippers in Germany and don't need to add more. I'd set aside 100,000 slots per year for people who might be young and fit into some language program and their craft or education fills a need into German society.
6. For any intellectual who wants to say things are unlimited....I'd remind them that everything cost money. If you bring in 300,000 people who can't find work or fit.....they end up on some stupid government welfare program, that costs money. That's money that you'd rob from bridge replacement or road repair. Anyone claiming it's all free and good.....well...no, it's not all free or good.
7. Put the information up front and say with some emphasis.....if you have a fairly conservative lifestyle and trying to immigrate into Germany.....and you got issues with certain people or being around women, than there would be a test of some sort....to let you know that you won't be able to adjust and fit into German society. It's not anything to weep over or get hostile about.....there are better countries which fit your conservative lifestyle, and make you happy.
8. Where ever you get settled into....for your initial six-year period of probation.....you stay in that state for the whole six years. If you pack up and move to another German state.....your application restarts from day one.
9. Establish that somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000 people probably can immigrate into Germany each year without causing a lot of chaos, confusion, or frustration. On this number, I'm only talking immigration and asylum....NOT refugees.
10. Finally, openly ID the funding and the cost levels for immigration....so that the public understands, and that intellectual journalists might grasp that nothing is free. When you reach the limit for incoming for the year.....you close the door and tell people to go elsewhere in Europe to find an open door.
On the Topic of Affordable Housing
So the public-run TV crew went out to various big-name cities in Germany, and asked the question.....is there anything that the city government (the mayor and council) are really doing to help this....or is the emphasis settled upon high development projects? Their answer? High revenue pay-back real estate is being pushed by most cities in Germany. It's rare to find any company which sees a market for affordable housing at present.
Yesterday, I spent a fair amount of the day in Frankfurt....walking around. In particular, I went to the old part of the city where the US Army BX was located (north part of the city.....along the Miquel Strasse area). The whole city block that the US Army occupied....up until the early 1990s....has been wiped out, and all new buildings put into place.
What you notice.....after a bit of walking around....are mostly all new apartment or condo developments.....which go hand-in-hand with the news report. These are all upscale places either standing presently, or in the process of being built. They aren't what you'd call affordable....they are high-end projects.
If you look at the neighborhood....it's in a area which has easy access to the subway system and quick access to the autobahn system leading out of the city.
Most developers look at the cost of real estate.....square meter to Euro rate....and shake their heads when someone says affordable housing.....because real estate prices in the urban zone of Frankfurt (like the other cities).....have gone to the point where affordable housing is a humorous topic to discuss. It makes no sense to build cheaper housing in these types of neighborhoods.
So, what is occurring....is that more subway and rapid-rail links are having to be developed.....allowing people to move ten to twenty kilometers out of town.....to neighborhoods that area still affordable there. Eventually, maybe twenty years down the line.....even those affordable neighborhoods....will become unaffordable, and people will have to study the idea of living forty to sixty kilometers out of town.....to make their budgets work.
If you were looking for a German topic which has no real solution and just continually gets chatted about....to no real conclusion.....this is topic number one.
One of the Hidden Gems of Frankfurt
It's not widely advertised or noted in any tourist booklet.
If you were looking for a large sampling of food, ranging from bread to chocolate, to wines or regional mustards.....this would be one of the better places to stop and spend a half-day walking around.
I should note, around the corner on the other side of the building.....is the Cafe Liebfrauenberg....which is a fine coffee and cake establishment, and a good place to take a break. Pricing might be slightly above the norm, but it's one of the better establishments within ten minutes of the river front of Frankfurt.
I will note.....pricing at the Markthalle might be above the average, but most everything is from the Hessen region, and the customer base revolves around people from the center of Frankfurt, who are willing to pay more....for higher quality.
I will also point out that this is no more than eight minutes walking from the Biebergasse area where the main shopping district sits.
Parking? Forget about that.....you'd best be on a Metro situation and riding the subway. Use the Dom/Romer exit point to get off or enter for the subway.My general advice is to make this an entire morning, and spend some time around the Dom as well. It's all part of the charm and character of Frankfurt.
Bring an empty stomach and have a decent day.
The Locks Story
One of the odd things that developed in the 1990s in Germany.....was this habit to profess love and the permanent relationship that came with it. Naturally, you'd want to LOCK-IN your relationship.....which meant that you bought a lock....had your name and the gal's name on it, with a date typically.....and then affix it to some bridge.
Some bridges have rules....absolutely no locks. The Eiserner Steg has no problem with locks. If you did some bean-count, I'd say at least 80,000 locks exist on the bridge. Now, if you ask.....since ten or fifteen years ago when such-and-such lock got put up between Martin and Andrea.....well.....things might have changed and they aren't a couple anymore, and Marin now has a lock with George.
It would be curious for some engineer to sit down and add up the weight added to the bridge....it has to be at least a couple of tons.What I do find interesting is that there are at least 500 different types of locks used for this business. Some guy put up a 1920s heavy-weight lock which I noticed. A number of folks simply bought a three-Euro lock which doesn't really serve well in safety or security.....but it was the thought that counts I guess.
Most are key locks, with maybe ten-percent combination locks. Some are expensive (over the thirty-Euro point) and some are cheap (three-Euro types).
At some point, some engineer will deem the weight as a problem and some poor city worker will get the job of cutting the locks (a four-week job if you ask me).
A romantic point? I would say that the bridge does amount to a five-star romantic point. On one side is the walking trail along the river, and on the other side is the old city area with tons of cafes and ice cream shops.
So, if you were on a outing in Frankfurt.....it's worth an hour to check out the bridge and it's locks.
The TUV
This week was TUV car inspection week for me. It's a nine-year old Audi TT and I can proudly say it's in perfect order.....other than one single bulb which was apparently burned out.
For most Americans who've done time in Germany....the TUV inspection business is chaotic and stressful. If you went out and bought an absolutely brand-new car.....you got three years of no inspections....then the yearly inspections came. If you were a German, it was an every-other-year routine for the inspections.
The general list of failed points? Too much rust, cracked windshield, hole in the muffler, leaking oil (hence the reason why guys always did steam clean of the vehicle one hour prior to the inspection), tinted window film, ground clearance exceeding the norm, bad tires, missing first aid kit, missing warning triangle, or too much smoke.
American GI's were in four categories of car ownership.
First, there was the guy who brought his US car over for the tour. This was the guy who typically discovered six months into the tour that the BX garage did NOT have the parts to fix his broke wiper situation....then he was forced to call a friend in the states to special-order the part and send him to him (figure 10 days for this to arrive), and he had a personal vehicle which he hoped that it didn't rain or snow for the next ten days.
Second, there was the guy who took between a thousand and two-thousand dollars....to buy a 'junker'. This was typically a European-brand car (BMW was always the preferred route) which was eight to fifteen years old. Maybe the car was in decent shape and simply had significant mileage. Maybe the car had rust showing. Maybe the car had a long maintenance history. This was typically a car which people refused to put any money into the car until it was absolutely broke.
Third, there was the guy who was willing to spend five to eight thousand dollars for a five to seven year old European car....sometimes a Audi or Mercedes. These were typically cars with limited rust and seemed to always pass the car inspections.
Finally, you come to the guy who took advantage of the tax-free status and bought a brand new BMW or VW, with US spec's, and had an entire tour with no issues at TUV.
My worst stress at TUV was in the early 1990s when I had a car with a long crack on the front-windshield.....more than 18 inches across front. I had simply put off the replacement episode and was waiting for someone to 'order' me into doing it. On the day of the TUV inspection....in mid-April....there came this massive thunderstorm and I chose this moment to drive over to the base inspection point, and have the guy inspect it. It should have failed but because of the rain and limited light.....the guy failed to notice the massive crack. I passed. Eight months later, I finally replaced the windshield, but found only a month or two later.....this stone-point on the windshield where new damage had occurred.
There were probably thousands of epic sagas of GI's in Germany, who did impossible things within the TUV business. In 1978, I worked with some young guy with almost no real cash ($700 to spend on a vehicle). He walked into the Rhein Main base junk-yard....found a vehicle which still ran but had issues.....and spent a weekend fixing the problems to emerge on Monday at the TUV station on base and pass. The epic French-made car had probably a dozen failure points, and each could be fixed enough to make the inspector happy. New tires, a generic muffler, an entire door replacement (from another junker in the lot), etc.....were enough to do the job. The TUV people didn't care about paint jobs, leaking roofs, bad mildew smells, marginal seats, or gas-mileage (I worked with a guy who proudly noted he was getting seven miles per gallon with a US junker).
So, if you are ever dealing with an American who has been in Germany for a while and the TUV topic comes up.....you could note his anxiety and nervous behavior in person. He's got a reason for being this way.
For most Americans who've done time in Germany....the TUV inspection business is chaotic and stressful. If you went out and bought an absolutely brand-new car.....you got three years of no inspections....then the yearly inspections came. If you were a German, it was an every-other-year routine for the inspections.
The general list of failed points? Too much rust, cracked windshield, hole in the muffler, leaking oil (hence the reason why guys always did steam clean of the vehicle one hour prior to the inspection), tinted window film, ground clearance exceeding the norm, bad tires, missing first aid kit, missing warning triangle, or too much smoke.
American GI's were in four categories of car ownership.
First, there was the guy who brought his US car over for the tour. This was the guy who typically discovered six months into the tour that the BX garage did NOT have the parts to fix his broke wiper situation....then he was forced to call a friend in the states to special-order the part and send him to him (figure 10 days for this to arrive), and he had a personal vehicle which he hoped that it didn't rain or snow for the next ten days.
Second, there was the guy who took between a thousand and two-thousand dollars....to buy a 'junker'. This was typically a European-brand car (BMW was always the preferred route) which was eight to fifteen years old. Maybe the car was in decent shape and simply had significant mileage. Maybe the car had rust showing. Maybe the car had a long maintenance history. This was typically a car which people refused to put any money into the car until it was absolutely broke.
Third, there was the guy who was willing to spend five to eight thousand dollars for a five to seven year old European car....sometimes a Audi or Mercedes. These were typically cars with limited rust and seemed to always pass the car inspections.
Finally, you come to the guy who took advantage of the tax-free status and bought a brand new BMW or VW, with US spec's, and had an entire tour with no issues at TUV.
My worst stress at TUV was in the early 1990s when I had a car with a long crack on the front-windshield.....more than 18 inches across front. I had simply put off the replacement episode and was waiting for someone to 'order' me into doing it. On the day of the TUV inspection....in mid-April....there came this massive thunderstorm and I chose this moment to drive over to the base inspection point, and have the guy inspect it. It should have failed but because of the rain and limited light.....the guy failed to notice the massive crack. I passed. Eight months later, I finally replaced the windshield, but found only a month or two later.....this stone-point on the windshield where new damage had occurred.
There were probably thousands of epic sagas of GI's in Germany, who did impossible things within the TUV business. In 1978, I worked with some young guy with almost no real cash ($700 to spend on a vehicle). He walked into the Rhein Main base junk-yard....found a vehicle which still ran but had issues.....and spent a weekend fixing the problems to emerge on Monday at the TUV station on base and pass. The epic French-made car had probably a dozen failure points, and each could be fixed enough to make the inspector happy. New tires, a generic muffler, an entire door replacement (from another junker in the lot), etc.....were enough to do the job. The TUV people didn't care about paint jobs, leaking roofs, bad mildew smells, marginal seats, or gas-mileage (I worked with a guy who proudly noted he was getting seven miles per gallon with a US junker).
So, if you are ever dealing with an American who has been in Germany for a while and the TUV topic comes up.....you could note his anxiety and nervous behavior in person. He's got a reason for being this way.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Politics in Italy
City mayor elections in Italy came and went yesterday. Oddly, the Five Star Movement (usually referred to as Movimento).....did extremely well.
What makes this "movement" different from the typical parties? They will tell you up front....they aren't a party....that they simply want to draw the public to several popular stances. These include anti-American participation in Syrian events, public water projects for Italy, improved public transport, the right to internet access, environmentalism, e-democracy (meaning public referendums), and getting rid of corrupt city waste across Italy.
You'd look over the list and note that most are populist type themes. Well....yeah, they are.
The chief odd feature of Movimento? They are a group which is fronted by an Italian comedian....Beppe Grillo. When Grillo speaks.....he's typically dumping on the system in place and being as sarcastic as possible. Because of this....the movement has a lot of public interest.
So Movimento's candidate in Rome? She won.
I wouldn't label Movimento right-wing or left-wing....but they are openly challenging standard center-left and center-right political parties in Italy. It's just another sign of a changing political environment in Europe.
What makes this "movement" different from the typical parties? They will tell you up front....they aren't a party....that they simply want to draw the public to several popular stances. These include anti-American participation in Syrian events, public water projects for Italy, improved public transport, the right to internet access, environmentalism, e-democracy (meaning public referendums), and getting rid of corrupt city waste across Italy.
You'd look over the list and note that most are populist type themes. Well....yeah, they are.
The chief odd feature of Movimento? They are a group which is fronted by an Italian comedian....Beppe Grillo. When Grillo speaks.....he's typically dumping on the system in place and being as sarcastic as possible. Because of this....the movement has a lot of public interest.
So Movimento's candidate in Rome? She won.
I wouldn't label Movimento right-wing or left-wing....but they are openly challenging standard center-left and center-right political parties in Italy. It's just another sign of a changing political environment in Europe.
Monday, June 20, 2016
The Draft Law that will Fail
Ten days ago, there was an upbeat feeling displayed for the news media by the CDU and SPD Parties in Berlin.....over the draft law that would deem the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco) as "safe", for immigration and asylum purposes. If deemed safe.....the border patrol folks in Germany can deport them without a lot of discussion (there are still exceptions but it's like a 90-percent that you'd be leaving).
The draft law needed to be pushed out to each of the 16 states, and they had to agree with this.
Well....by Friday of last week.....the enthusiasm was gone. You see at the state level.....there's several states which have a Green Party deal that makes the government at the state level work. And the Green Party says that it's not safe for people of these countries to return to their country.
Naturally, no one brings up the safe angle for German tourists. You'd think.....if it was unsafe.....no German tourists would be going there.
So a silver bullet wasted by the CDU and SPD? I've sat and pondered upon this for the afternoon. They both had to know weeks ago when they were drafting this law up.....that the Greens would never agree with it. In a way, they didn't care.....they were simply firing off a 'blank' and pretending that they were going to remove some of the negativity on immigration.
Public frustration has to linger with not only the CDU, and SPD......but with the Greens. Here was some marginal effort to rein in immigration issues and rather than find some common ground.....it simply pushes the public to be anti-CDU and anti-SPD.....meaning another vote here and there for the AfD Party. Maybe the Greens see this as a positive, but it shouldn't be that way.
The draft law needed to be pushed out to each of the 16 states, and they had to agree with this.
Well....by Friday of last week.....the enthusiasm was gone. You see at the state level.....there's several states which have a Green Party deal that makes the government at the state level work. And the Green Party says that it's not safe for people of these countries to return to their country.
Naturally, no one brings up the safe angle for German tourists. You'd think.....if it was unsafe.....no German tourists would be going there.
So a silver bullet wasted by the CDU and SPD? I've sat and pondered upon this for the afternoon. They both had to know weeks ago when they were drafting this law up.....that the Greens would never agree with it. In a way, they didn't care.....they were simply firing off a 'blank' and pretending that they were going to remove some of the negativity on immigration.
Public frustration has to linger with not only the CDU, and SPD......but with the Greens. Here was some marginal effort to rein in immigration issues and rather than find some common ground.....it simply pushes the public to be anti-CDU and anti-SPD.....meaning another vote here and there for the AfD Party. Maybe the Greens see this as a positive, but it shouldn't be that way.
Warmongering
Somewhere along the 1580s.....the term "warmonger" got started. Edmund Spenser was a British writer and poet.....who sat down and crafted the "Faerie Queene".....an epic two part poem (about as long as you can go in poetic lyrics).
The original piece, got a fair-sized audience and was noted by the Queen.....who decreed that Spenser would receive 50-pounds a year for life.....for his first work.
Spenser wrote up part II of the Faerie Queene, and it was published a couple of years later (1596) and he noted at the time....there would be twelve parts to the Faerie Queene. Well.....he passed on at the age of 46 (1599). The other ten parts never came.
In some ways, he was one of the many lucky individuals whose life came along at the age of printing (the mass printing capability came up after 1525), and the public sought stories as a form of entertainment.
Warmonger was supposed to describe a person who invents ways to start a war. It could simply be words.....sometimes actions.....sometimes just behavior by itself. In a way, just about everyone who slips into a war situation....could be accused of being a warmonger (Wilson, FDR, Bush, Chamberlain, Lincoln, etc).
This past week, here in Germany......Frank Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister of Germany.....uttered the phrase and accused NATO of warmongering. The action committed by NATO over the past month was a massive exercise in Poland and Eastern Europe.....to counter Russian tough-talk.
Was NATO guilty of warmongering? Well......as much so as Germany and the EU were warmongering back three years ago in the handling of the Ukraine application to the EU and the blundering around triggered the Ukraine and Russia to go into a civil war routine.
The thing is.....if you were viewing all all the minor activities of Russia over the past year or two....they haven't exactly been angels and some commentary toward the border states around them (near Germany's neighbors) have been a bit worried over what was said and done.
My guess is that this is the start of political season, and that Steinmeier will make more anti-NATO speeches along the way to the fall of 2017 election. Maybe he'll do an occasional anti-Trump speech as well.
Oddly, no one ever wrote an epic British poem for peacemongering. I guess that kind of literature or poetry never catches anyone's fancy.
The original piece, got a fair-sized audience and was noted by the Queen.....who decreed that Spenser would receive 50-pounds a year for life.....for his first work.
Spenser wrote up part II of the Faerie Queene, and it was published a couple of years later (1596) and he noted at the time....there would be twelve parts to the Faerie Queene. Well.....he passed on at the age of 46 (1599). The other ten parts never came.
In some ways, he was one of the many lucky individuals whose life came along at the age of printing (the mass printing capability came up after 1525), and the public sought stories as a form of entertainment.
Warmonger was supposed to describe a person who invents ways to start a war. It could simply be words.....sometimes actions.....sometimes just behavior by itself. In a way, just about everyone who slips into a war situation....could be accused of being a warmonger (Wilson, FDR, Bush, Chamberlain, Lincoln, etc).
This past week, here in Germany......Frank Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister of Germany.....uttered the phrase and accused NATO of warmongering. The action committed by NATO over the past month was a massive exercise in Poland and Eastern Europe.....to counter Russian tough-talk.
Was NATO guilty of warmongering? Well......as much so as Germany and the EU were warmongering back three years ago in the handling of the Ukraine application to the EU and the blundering around triggered the Ukraine and Russia to go into a civil war routine.
The thing is.....if you were viewing all all the minor activities of Russia over the past year or two....they haven't exactly been angels and some commentary toward the border states around them (near Germany's neighbors) have been a bit worried over what was said and done.
My guess is that this is the start of political season, and that Steinmeier will make more anti-NATO speeches along the way to the fall of 2017 election. Maybe he'll do an occasional anti-Trump speech as well.
Oddly, no one ever wrote an epic British poem for peacemongering. I guess that kind of literature or poetry never catches anyone's fancy.
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Art Essay
The guy had sat there....in a Picasso-moment....and drew out a "Frieda on the sofa" display.
It's not a bad piece of art....but then you get stuck with the cheap steel type of element, and paint chipping off, and ten years later....the effort is degraded.
In a way, one might wish that the telephone guys would have a box with a glass cover which might protect the drawing longer.
Course, the negative is that you kinda admire the painting while standing out in some street, and might get whacked by a car that suddenly turned into the street.
The thing is.....you've got tens of thousands of decent artists who aren't going to some art academy, or doing 4,000 Euro paintings of some German maiden being saved by two husky Swedish knights on ponies. In a way, they are the painter who couldn't find some way to progress in their great interest, and just stand around to admire a blank telephone box which ought to have some fine German woman painted on it.....wasting away four hours on a Saturday to display their best art.
Saturday, June 18, 2016
"America's Last Hope"
Spiegel (the German news magazine) runs a front-cover piece this week with Hillary representing America's last great hope. I didn't really go past the first ten lines. They do lay out the chief issue....there is no real enthusiasm among Democrats in 2016....compared to 2008 or 2012. Hillary isn't a Barak Obama. But their selling point (from Spiegel's intellectual view) is that Donald Trump is not good for America and not good for Germans.
I sat yesterday observing a French political chat group, which got onto the subject of Trump, and the two American intellectuals quickly went onto the anti-Trump tirade and noted how crazy it would be if Trump were President. Anyone watching their 'act' or behavior.....would have been mostly amused (it was like having a conversation with a 14-year old kid and they repeated special phrases without any idea of the meaning).
There are probably a dozen reasons that Trump isn't the best or most positive candidate in the running. The problem is....when put up against Hillary....then asking about her reasons why she's not the best or most positive candidate in the running....your reason total goes to twenty....maybe even twenty-five. It is an election where you have marginal people for the job. Trump has a full-page resume but he's not really a Republican or Democrat....meaning he's an executive who will do things differently from the past forty-four guys to occupy the position. In Hillary's case, it's a 3x5 card resume, and her chief selling point is that she's the wife of Bill.
Why do the German intellectuals drift into the anti-Trump situation? Well....it's good press to help the SPD in a bad election year (2017). In the past, with a anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-Bush slant.....this always helped the SPD pick up another six to ten percentage points. Right now....the SPD sits at around a 20-percent point nationally.....which is the worst they've seen in fifty years. They need massive help, and a big anti-Trump thrill by the German public would really help.
The problem in 2016 selling this Spiegel message? Last year, there was a poll which said that roughly two-thirds of all Germans do not trust the news media anymore. They aren't talking about just the Channel One (state-run TV) folks.....they also mean print-media. Germans in general.....have prioritized their issues and problems.....and having some fraudulent journalists pretend there's some bigger issue.....well....it just won't work this time around.
With the way that Spiegel wrote the first couple of lines of their article....they are preparing the German public for the likely outcome.....Trump does end up beating Hillary....mostly because of a lack of enthusiasm. On that, they are probably right.
So as summer drags on in Germany, and you happen to note hours and hours of coverage on the US election and amusing pictures of Trump always used to highlight the "unclever or dangerous" Trump....you get dragged into discussions with Germans over how screwed up Trump is. So you might get your German associate to pause for a moment and you just say.....you know....we sure do wish we had someone like your Merkel in America, that we could get behind.....like you Germans do, and support. Remind them.....Merkel in a way....is "Germany's Last Hope".
I sat yesterday observing a French political chat group, which got onto the subject of Trump, and the two American intellectuals quickly went onto the anti-Trump tirade and noted how crazy it would be if Trump were President. Anyone watching their 'act' or behavior.....would have been mostly amused (it was like having a conversation with a 14-year old kid and they repeated special phrases without any idea of the meaning).
There are probably a dozen reasons that Trump isn't the best or most positive candidate in the running. The problem is....when put up against Hillary....then asking about her reasons why she's not the best or most positive candidate in the running....your reason total goes to twenty....maybe even twenty-five. It is an election where you have marginal people for the job. Trump has a full-page resume but he's not really a Republican or Democrat....meaning he's an executive who will do things differently from the past forty-four guys to occupy the position. In Hillary's case, it's a 3x5 card resume, and her chief selling point is that she's the wife of Bill.
Why do the German intellectuals drift into the anti-Trump situation? Well....it's good press to help the SPD in a bad election year (2017). In the past, with a anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-Bush slant.....this always helped the SPD pick up another six to ten percentage points. Right now....the SPD sits at around a 20-percent point nationally.....which is the worst they've seen in fifty years. They need massive help, and a big anti-Trump thrill by the German public would really help.
The problem in 2016 selling this Spiegel message? Last year, there was a poll which said that roughly two-thirds of all Germans do not trust the news media anymore. They aren't talking about just the Channel One (state-run TV) folks.....they also mean print-media. Germans in general.....have prioritized their issues and problems.....and having some fraudulent journalists pretend there's some bigger issue.....well....it just won't work this time around.
With the way that Spiegel wrote the first couple of lines of their article....they are preparing the German public for the likely outcome.....Trump does end up beating Hillary....mostly because of a lack of enthusiasm. On that, they are probably right.
So as summer drags on in Germany, and you happen to note hours and hours of coverage on the US election and amusing pictures of Trump always used to highlight the "unclever or dangerous" Trump....you get dragged into discussions with Germans over how screwed up Trump is. So you might get your German associate to pause for a moment and you just say.....you know....we sure do wish we had someone like your Merkel in America, that we could get behind.....like you Germans do, and support. Remind them.....Merkel in a way....is "Germany's Last Hope".
Thursday, June 16, 2016
What Happens With the Austria Vote?
I spent about an hour today....reading through this whole episode.
So, the simple facts. The 22 May 2016 runoff, between the remaining two possible candidates (the Green Party guy and the right-wing FPO)....led to a 31,000 vote difference (1-percent), with the Green Party winning. What can be said is that some folks noticed some unusual things from the election. They started to add these up....particularly with the absentee ballots. With one town, 146-percent of the public came out to vote. Yeah....you can do it up to a hundred-percent and probably get away with it, but not 146-percent.
So they turned some complaints into the Constitutional Court. They've agreed.....things seem a bit screwed up. If this were one or two districts, with 10,000 votes, and the possibility that three or four guys just plain screwed up.....they'd likely allow it to stand. Because there's only 31,000 votes between them, and the odds that more than 50-percent of the districts screwed-up in some fashion.....it just doesn't look good. What the court says.....is that they will come back by 6 July and render their judgement.....either let it go, and establish a re-vote.
The odds here? I think they will get close to 100,000 votes being suspect. That will be a problem that the court can't get around. So, I am predicting a revote....likely by the 2nd Sunday in August. That will allow five weeks for ballots to be made and the two parties to do another run-up. It'll allow for training and emphasis for the clerks NOT to screw up again.
What happens with the make-up election?
Well, there's this big problem....the BREXIT election will occur and the right-wing folks might have some slight advantage by talking anti-EU. The odds that the vote will repeat with the Greens one-percentage point ahead? I kinda have my doubts.
Could the Court just say no....it was fine and let things be?
My guess is that every single member of the court would prefer that the Green Party guy remain the winner, and not invent some way that the right-wing party comes out the winner. The problem is.....there are probably more than 30,000 votes that can't be explained in some tidy way and it invites discussions for years to come over the stupidity of the whole government.
Putting both BREXIT and a Austrian vote up in this summer? Yeah....it really opens up a can of worms.
So, the simple facts. The 22 May 2016 runoff, between the remaining two possible candidates (the Green Party guy and the right-wing FPO)....led to a 31,000 vote difference (1-percent), with the Green Party winning. What can be said is that some folks noticed some unusual things from the election. They started to add these up....particularly with the absentee ballots. With one town, 146-percent of the public came out to vote. Yeah....you can do it up to a hundred-percent and probably get away with it, but not 146-percent.
So they turned some complaints into the Constitutional Court. They've agreed.....things seem a bit screwed up. If this were one or two districts, with 10,000 votes, and the possibility that three or four guys just plain screwed up.....they'd likely allow it to stand. Because there's only 31,000 votes between them, and the odds that more than 50-percent of the districts screwed-up in some fashion.....it just doesn't look good. What the court says.....is that they will come back by 6 July and render their judgement.....either let it go, and establish a re-vote.
The odds here? I think they will get close to 100,000 votes being suspect. That will be a problem that the court can't get around. So, I am predicting a revote....likely by the 2nd Sunday in August. That will allow five weeks for ballots to be made and the two parties to do another run-up. It'll allow for training and emphasis for the clerks NOT to screw up again.
What happens with the make-up election?
Well, there's this big problem....the BREXIT election will occur and the right-wing folks might have some slight advantage by talking anti-EU. The odds that the vote will repeat with the Greens one-percentage point ahead? I kinda have my doubts.
Could the Court just say no....it was fine and let things be?
My guess is that every single member of the court would prefer that the Green Party guy remain the winner, and not invent some way that the right-wing party comes out the winner. The problem is.....there are probably more than 30,000 votes that can't be explained in some tidy way and it invites discussions for years to come over the stupidity of the whole government.
Putting both BREXIT and a Austrian vote up in this summer? Yeah....it really opens up a can of worms.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
The Trouble With Wood Benches
There are probably forty of them around the city, and the majority are metal (that was the standard prior to the last decade), with the wood deal being the new trend.
The issue is....the wood just collects up dirt and mildew, and there's no effort by the city to clean them regularly. So people come up (you can stand nearby and watch them).....they view the sitting area, and you know that they'd like to sit there but just won't sit on the mildew or gummy area.
Cleaning this? My impression is that they might have one entire steam cleaner in the whole city parks department for things like this and it's only used once a year at best.
So, when you walk around and see all these million-Euro bus-stops in the city, and all these benches sitting there.....but no one sitting on them.....well....now you know why everyone is standing and admiring the benches.
A Doormat Which Tells the Story
So, what's left now, is friendly but blunt humor.....like this doormat which says: Mainz is better than Wiesbaden.
A handful of Mainzers will have these, for guests or relatives who come across the river to visit them. It's playful humor, but they needle each other a bit over this.
One city is a university and Catholic Church crowd type situation.....beer-drinkers, with working class people mostly as the occupants, and they tend to have 'fun'. The other is a business-orientated town, with upscale shops, snobs, mostly protestant churches, Apfel-wine consumption, culture, and they have style and 'grace' (well.....they claim this).
The Zollhafen Project
If you ask the locals....they will say nothing will be done for at least a decade. Pubs, condos, apartments, restaurants, etc.
An scale slant? Well, this is the chief selling point....everyone is going to want to live in this neighborhood of Mainz.
Monday, June 13, 2016
On the Topic of German Weapon Control
This is one of those history essays that I occasionally deliver.
From the Roman ages in Germany.....up to the 1000s....it was a fairly common thing for feuds to be handled by various means, which included bloodshed, some swords in active use, and some villages burnt to the ground.
A feud might be referred to as a "small horse"....which an all-out war would be referred to as a "big horse". I know....it sounds kinda silly but you have to imagine a couple of German guys standing around....frustrated or angry over the folks in the next valley, and having a few drinks. At the right time.....someone would refer to this situation as a "small horse" and that was slang for the guys to huff-and-puff.....and take off for some action, which might mean death, injury, or some village burning.
So, as you get into the 1000 AD period in Germany, oddly enough, there are these various Catholic Church efforts and and an entire movement referred to as the Peace of God. This was supposed to impose rules on various communities, state-cities, and kingdoms.
You come to the efforts in 1495 under Emperor Maximilian I in Germany to wrap all this feud business and have some "control" over the public....less sword-play, less unnecessary deaths, less village burning. This effort at the Diet of Worms resulted in what would be referred to as perpetual public peace. You can call it the first hint of 'gun-control' in Germany, or whatever, but this was to cut back on violence within the Germanic states.
The German word or phrase for this original effort? Ewiger Landfriede.
At some point in the mid-1800s....as consolidation was taking place with Prussia and the other Germanic states....another round of change came up....referred to as Volksbewaffnung.
Interesting enough....this was an effort referring to the Swiss idea of a militia in each community, and this militia would have access to guns.
This failed....mostly because of some serious revolutionary activity in the years of 1848 and 1849. This episode scared the Kaiser to some degree....that a bunch of weapons in the hands of the public....was a bad thing.
What came after this period.....was a willingness to allow regulated ownership....mostly around hunting rifles and shotguns.
As WW I came to a close....an odd thing occurred with the surrender.....German troops just started walking home and taking their weapons with them.
Naturally, this scared the crap out of the new Weimar Republic, so a total disarming law was put into place in 1919.....with zero effect. It meant ALL weapons, to include hunting rifles and shotguns, and the public simply wasn't going to accept that idea.
So in August of 1920.....the next law went into effect which centered strictly upon military style weapons.....they were forbidden. Hunting rifles and shotguns? Approved.
In 1928, they went to the next step, where a license was required.
All of this....before the Nazi regime came to power.
So after 1932, the chief change that the Nazis brought into place was centered on gunsmiths to keep records of repair and maintenance.
After WW II, various laws have come and gone. Weapons are considered something that any German can acquire, if he takes the classes, passes the tests, shows mental competence, and maintains a gun locker. To say gun control is in place is true.....but most Germans would say that if they want a gun, they can get it.
From the Roman ages in Germany.....up to the 1000s....it was a fairly common thing for feuds to be handled by various means, which included bloodshed, some swords in active use, and some villages burnt to the ground.
A feud might be referred to as a "small horse"....which an all-out war would be referred to as a "big horse". I know....it sounds kinda silly but you have to imagine a couple of German guys standing around....frustrated or angry over the folks in the next valley, and having a few drinks. At the right time.....someone would refer to this situation as a "small horse" and that was slang for the guys to huff-and-puff.....and take off for some action, which might mean death, injury, or some village burning.
So, as you get into the 1000 AD period in Germany, oddly enough, there are these various Catholic Church efforts and and an entire movement referred to as the Peace of God. This was supposed to impose rules on various communities, state-cities, and kingdoms.
You come to the efforts in 1495 under Emperor Maximilian I in Germany to wrap all this feud business and have some "control" over the public....less sword-play, less unnecessary deaths, less village burning. This effort at the Diet of Worms resulted in what would be referred to as perpetual public peace. You can call it the first hint of 'gun-control' in Germany, or whatever, but this was to cut back on violence within the Germanic states.
The German word or phrase for this original effort? Ewiger Landfriede.
At some point in the mid-1800s....as consolidation was taking place with Prussia and the other Germanic states....another round of change came up....referred to as Volksbewaffnung.
Interesting enough....this was an effort referring to the Swiss idea of a militia in each community, and this militia would have access to guns.
This failed....mostly because of some serious revolutionary activity in the years of 1848 and 1849. This episode scared the Kaiser to some degree....that a bunch of weapons in the hands of the public....was a bad thing.
What came after this period.....was a willingness to allow regulated ownership....mostly around hunting rifles and shotguns.
As WW I came to a close....an odd thing occurred with the surrender.....German troops just started walking home and taking their weapons with them.
Naturally, this scared the crap out of the new Weimar Republic, so a total disarming law was put into place in 1919.....with zero effect. It meant ALL weapons, to include hunting rifles and shotguns, and the public simply wasn't going to accept that idea.
So in August of 1920.....the next law went into effect which centered strictly upon military style weapons.....they were forbidden. Hunting rifles and shotguns? Approved.
In 1928, they went to the next step, where a license was required.
All of this....before the Nazi regime came to power.
So after 1932, the chief change that the Nazis brought into place was centered on gunsmiths to keep records of repair and maintenance.
After WW II, various laws have come and gone. Weapons are considered something that any German can acquire, if he takes the classes, passes the tests, shows mental competence, and maintains a gun locker. To say gun control is in place is true.....but most Germans would say that if they want a gun, they can get it.
The German 'Pandora's' Box
I am forever consumed by history, consequences, and lessons learned. They all fit in some manner into one clumsy package which most people would prefer to overlook or avoid pondering upon. German history, European history, and American history all fit into this 'Pandora's box' which is usually left in the shadows and we avoid talking about things.
Looking back over the past three years in Germany, the immigration issues, the political spiral, the news media acting as fraudulent cheerleader, and a public trust shaken over apparent consequences.....I will note ten simple observations that most Germans don't really think much about or want to ask questions about.
1. No matter what agency or statistical unit is doing the math.....the German public at present is at 81-million (more or less) and in roughly twenty-five years....they will be sitting at 65 to 68 million (more or less). It doesn't matter if it's the government statistics office, some university, or some private foundation.....they all go and describe Germany in two decades as much smaller country. The survival game? It has no choice....it must allow immigration to occur (smart immigration, stupid immigration, troublesome immigration.....take your pick from the three). No political figure, even the Chancellor, is willing to take ten minutes and really lay out some enormous gut-wrenching truth and slap 81 million German across the face a dozen times and just say it....because of your trend toward good birth control.....we are screwed, so like or not.....immigration is the only choice ahead.
2. Go drive around the rural regions of Germany (any of the 16 states) and look at empty store-fronts, and what appears to be empty houses. Thousand of communities in Germany are downsizing as each generation passes on. The jobs aren't there, nor is that anything of 'civilization' that attracts younger folks to stay there. The shift to urban is going on, and most rural areas over the next two decades will likely shift to half the population that they currently have. Go and ask how recruitment drives are going for hiring teachers out in rural areas of Germany. Go ask how banks, grocery stores and drug stores are decreasing their footprints in rural areas. Some towns existed for 150 years with a bank, and suddenly now find themselves without a bank, and even the nearest ATM machine is couple of kilometers away now.
3. The German state-run news media turned themselves into a puppet-like creature.....trying to be some pretender intellectual and craving the public support to go in one particular direction. They seem shocked now that the public labels them as liars and notes some of their news productions as frauds. The public even reaches the level now of questioning the monthly media-tax and the governing board over the state-run TV empire. Oddly, the state-news folks consider themselves as being part of the nation itself and it would be unthinkable that they suddenly were told to downsize or correct their behavior.
4. There is this odd law-driven way that Germany manages immigration. There is one single federal office handling the paperwork. But beyond that point....they are dumped on the doorsteps of each of the 16 states. Each state has to figure some method of distribution, shelter, and care. Some smart method of funding or running a national program? No, that would mean the federal government would be running that, and they really don't want the responsibility. So they sit and shuffle these people around, and each state cooks up their program.....which means they might fiscally responsible at 100-percent.....fiscally ill-planned to over-spend by 200-percent.....or work up some corrupted shelter deal at 300-percent the smart costs of doing the immigration care game. If you ask the Berlin federal folks, they have no real idea of the actual day-to-day costs, and they barely have any idea of how many people are in the first part of the care-funnel or the last part of the care-funnel. A million here, a billion there.....you'd expect some audit, but then no one wants to admit foolish mistakes costing tens of millions.
5. If one wants to talk about immigration and significant numbers of new residents in Germany, then you have to talk affordable housing. If you bring up the top twenty urban areas of Germany....virtually every single one has a significant problem in finding adequate housing at an affordable rate. Note, ALL of this was known and discussed prior to 2013 when immigration started to become an issue. When you address a dozen newly arrived immigrants and ask about where they want to go.....the answer is always an urban area with jobs. So, where will the new immigrant find adequate affordable housing? Yes, it is an amusing question to ask, and an amusing answer....they probably won't find affordable housing, unless they move 20 to 40 kilometers outside of these large urban areas. Various political junkies sit around now and debate affordable housing....wanting to drag the government into various deals.....all lay the cost of such a move onto? Well.....yeah.....the tax-payer. Normal investment groups don't see trusting profits off funding and building affordable housing units.
6. If you talk to ten Germans on integration.....you will get ten different views. If you talk to some intellectual or political figure.....you generally get one single view (it's not a success but it's not a failure). Hostility within German society brews over various immigrant groups. Crime statistics are up, but it was up before 2013 and the big numbers achieved (1.1 million in 2015). Cops will say it's driven by East European gangs working on a process-driven and smart agenda, and they need massive help to put it down. German see two different views of the Muslim community.....with some able to blend in and be part of the community.....with others acting in a separate distinctive manner and likely never to be part of the community. Schools handling this integration flow with kids? The state-run news tells some positive stories.....some German teachers quietly on their own say that they are simply baby-sitting the kids and getting them to some level to dump on society. The incoming crowd who are university educated and have a craft? I think they will have the best of odds of making it in Germany. The incoming crowd with no university degree and no craft? Deemed appropriate to be burger-flippers and mower-operators....with the jobs at the bottom of the barrel.
7. The cost factor? Most Germans over the past six months have begun to ask stupid questions. The general answer is that by 2020....it'll be around 90-billion Euro spent. By the Berlin talk, half will come from the federal government, and half from the states. New taxes? You'd think that they'd be talking about this but no, they merely slip around the topic. So what they intend to do.....is just take money from various infrastructure plans, and try to make it for four years, with the pot as it is. If more people arrive? Well....that would be curious to ask about but it's usually avoided by state-run TV news and the political folks. Can Germany slip 20-billion out each year for this cost? Probably so.....they were crazy-stupid-enough to pay billions in waste for BER (the Berlin Airport) and 250-odd million for the Kassel Airport renovation, so maybe there's tons of waste that they can attack.
8. The political one-sided animal. In the midst of all this talk and frustration....Germans have come to realize that most of the political parties in the Bundestag....are hyped up and generally pro-immigration (CDU, SPD, Linke Party, Green Party) with the CSU leaning somewhat against the current agenda. In the shadows rests the AfD Party, which is absolutely anti-immigration. The chatter from the big-name parties and the state-run news media on the AfD? It's mostly negative, hints of Nazi-this or Nazi-that, and skipping the topics which drove 20-percent of society toward the AfD. To be kinda honest, the AfD isn't totally innocent and their slant on things might deserve more talk and consideration.....but then they don't have any real competition (they are like the one and only ice cream shop in Tucson and they can market their best cup at twice the regular price). Various groups within the SPD, Linke Party and CDU are practically begging their leadership to find a more practical vision, limit immigrants, and wisely spend federal funds. So far, their voices barely are heard.
9. Most every country in Europe is exploring right-wing tendencies and openly hostile on numerous topics. More than half of the German population have some fundamental issue with the EU (they won't condemn it but they really have some heartburn). Most Germans hate the continuing saga with Greece and it's hour-by-hour bankruptcy tirade. Most Germans have a negative view of Turkey. Most Germans would list their woes and priorities in life.....quiet differently than the news media or intellectuals chat about. There is a disconnect going on between the Germans in the heartland, and the federal political geeks in Berlin.
10. So you come to the end of this whole consequence game. Germans are awful clever people, at least they spend a fair amount of time trying to convince you of this wonderful trait that they have over everyone else. Germans have spent centuries becoming some Germanic state that people from lands faraway.....have fantasized and dreamed of making it as their homeland. If you wrote the formula down which has been used to create this Disneyland-like park.....there would be hundreds of thousands of codes written into this....some logical....some illogical....and it'd require you years and years of effort to grasp the fundamentals to this marvelous amusement park. You come to this one odd part of the whole game of pondering......if the immigrants really sat down and analyzed the heck out of Germany, it's economy, it's cost of living, it's rules, it's politics, it's gimmicks.....then they compare it against 185-odd countries in existence, and rate it as one of the last countries that they'd want to waste a decade of their life trying to fit into it. That's the silly part of this whole story.
Just something to think about.
Looking back over the past three years in Germany, the immigration issues, the political spiral, the news media acting as fraudulent cheerleader, and a public trust shaken over apparent consequences.....I will note ten simple observations that most Germans don't really think much about or want to ask questions about.
1. No matter what agency or statistical unit is doing the math.....the German public at present is at 81-million (more or less) and in roughly twenty-five years....they will be sitting at 65 to 68 million (more or less). It doesn't matter if it's the government statistics office, some university, or some private foundation.....they all go and describe Germany in two decades as much smaller country. The survival game? It has no choice....it must allow immigration to occur (smart immigration, stupid immigration, troublesome immigration.....take your pick from the three). No political figure, even the Chancellor, is willing to take ten minutes and really lay out some enormous gut-wrenching truth and slap 81 million German across the face a dozen times and just say it....because of your trend toward good birth control.....we are screwed, so like or not.....immigration is the only choice ahead.
2. Go drive around the rural regions of Germany (any of the 16 states) and look at empty store-fronts, and what appears to be empty houses. Thousand of communities in Germany are downsizing as each generation passes on. The jobs aren't there, nor is that anything of 'civilization' that attracts younger folks to stay there. The shift to urban is going on, and most rural areas over the next two decades will likely shift to half the population that they currently have. Go and ask how recruitment drives are going for hiring teachers out in rural areas of Germany. Go ask how banks, grocery stores and drug stores are decreasing their footprints in rural areas. Some towns existed for 150 years with a bank, and suddenly now find themselves without a bank, and even the nearest ATM machine is couple of kilometers away now.
3. The German state-run news media turned themselves into a puppet-like creature.....trying to be some pretender intellectual and craving the public support to go in one particular direction. They seem shocked now that the public labels them as liars and notes some of their news productions as frauds. The public even reaches the level now of questioning the monthly media-tax and the governing board over the state-run TV empire. Oddly, the state-news folks consider themselves as being part of the nation itself and it would be unthinkable that they suddenly were told to downsize or correct their behavior.
4. There is this odd law-driven way that Germany manages immigration. There is one single federal office handling the paperwork. But beyond that point....they are dumped on the doorsteps of each of the 16 states. Each state has to figure some method of distribution, shelter, and care. Some smart method of funding or running a national program? No, that would mean the federal government would be running that, and they really don't want the responsibility. So they sit and shuffle these people around, and each state cooks up their program.....which means they might fiscally responsible at 100-percent.....fiscally ill-planned to over-spend by 200-percent.....or work up some corrupted shelter deal at 300-percent the smart costs of doing the immigration care game. If you ask the Berlin federal folks, they have no real idea of the actual day-to-day costs, and they barely have any idea of how many people are in the first part of the care-funnel or the last part of the care-funnel. A million here, a billion there.....you'd expect some audit, but then no one wants to admit foolish mistakes costing tens of millions.
5. If one wants to talk about immigration and significant numbers of new residents in Germany, then you have to talk affordable housing. If you bring up the top twenty urban areas of Germany....virtually every single one has a significant problem in finding adequate housing at an affordable rate. Note, ALL of this was known and discussed prior to 2013 when immigration started to become an issue. When you address a dozen newly arrived immigrants and ask about where they want to go.....the answer is always an urban area with jobs. So, where will the new immigrant find adequate affordable housing? Yes, it is an amusing question to ask, and an amusing answer....they probably won't find affordable housing, unless they move 20 to 40 kilometers outside of these large urban areas. Various political junkies sit around now and debate affordable housing....wanting to drag the government into various deals.....all lay the cost of such a move onto? Well.....yeah.....the tax-payer. Normal investment groups don't see trusting profits off funding and building affordable housing units.
6. If you talk to ten Germans on integration.....you will get ten different views. If you talk to some intellectual or political figure.....you generally get one single view (it's not a success but it's not a failure). Hostility within German society brews over various immigrant groups. Crime statistics are up, but it was up before 2013 and the big numbers achieved (1.1 million in 2015). Cops will say it's driven by East European gangs working on a process-driven and smart agenda, and they need massive help to put it down. German see two different views of the Muslim community.....with some able to blend in and be part of the community.....with others acting in a separate distinctive manner and likely never to be part of the community. Schools handling this integration flow with kids? The state-run news tells some positive stories.....some German teachers quietly on their own say that they are simply baby-sitting the kids and getting them to some level to dump on society. The incoming crowd who are university educated and have a craft? I think they will have the best of odds of making it in Germany. The incoming crowd with no university degree and no craft? Deemed appropriate to be burger-flippers and mower-operators....with the jobs at the bottom of the barrel.
7. The cost factor? Most Germans over the past six months have begun to ask stupid questions. The general answer is that by 2020....it'll be around 90-billion Euro spent. By the Berlin talk, half will come from the federal government, and half from the states. New taxes? You'd think that they'd be talking about this but no, they merely slip around the topic. So what they intend to do.....is just take money from various infrastructure plans, and try to make it for four years, with the pot as it is. If more people arrive? Well....that would be curious to ask about but it's usually avoided by state-run TV news and the political folks. Can Germany slip 20-billion out each year for this cost? Probably so.....they were crazy-stupid-enough to pay billions in waste for BER (the Berlin Airport) and 250-odd million for the Kassel Airport renovation, so maybe there's tons of waste that they can attack.
8. The political one-sided animal. In the midst of all this talk and frustration....Germans have come to realize that most of the political parties in the Bundestag....are hyped up and generally pro-immigration (CDU, SPD, Linke Party, Green Party) with the CSU leaning somewhat against the current agenda. In the shadows rests the AfD Party, which is absolutely anti-immigration. The chatter from the big-name parties and the state-run news media on the AfD? It's mostly negative, hints of Nazi-this or Nazi-that, and skipping the topics which drove 20-percent of society toward the AfD. To be kinda honest, the AfD isn't totally innocent and their slant on things might deserve more talk and consideration.....but then they don't have any real competition (they are like the one and only ice cream shop in Tucson and they can market their best cup at twice the regular price). Various groups within the SPD, Linke Party and CDU are practically begging their leadership to find a more practical vision, limit immigrants, and wisely spend federal funds. So far, their voices barely are heard.
9. Most every country in Europe is exploring right-wing tendencies and openly hostile on numerous topics. More than half of the German population have some fundamental issue with the EU (they won't condemn it but they really have some heartburn). Most Germans hate the continuing saga with Greece and it's hour-by-hour bankruptcy tirade. Most Germans have a negative view of Turkey. Most Germans would list their woes and priorities in life.....quiet differently than the news media or intellectuals chat about. There is a disconnect going on between the Germans in the heartland, and the federal political geeks in Berlin.
10. So you come to the end of this whole consequence game. Germans are awful clever people, at least they spend a fair amount of time trying to convince you of this wonderful trait that they have over everyone else. Germans have spent centuries becoming some Germanic state that people from lands faraway.....have fantasized and dreamed of making it as their homeland. If you wrote the formula down which has been used to create this Disneyland-like park.....there would be hundreds of thousands of codes written into this....some logical....some illogical....and it'd require you years and years of effort to grasp the fundamentals to this marvelous amusement park. You come to this one odd part of the whole game of pondering......if the immigrants really sat down and analyzed the heck out of Germany, it's economy, it's cost of living, it's rules, it's politics, it's gimmicks.....then they compare it against 185-odd countries in existence, and rate it as one of the last countries that they'd want to waste a decade of their life trying to fit into it. That's the silly part of this whole story.
Just something to think about.
Sunday, June 12, 2016
The Good Person Syndrome
Around eighteen months ago, I started to notice a trendy subject here in Germany.....which amounted to the idea of a 'gute mensch' (good person).
If you asked some German to define the 'gute mensch' crowd....it'd be mostly a label attached to some crowd which overflowed with perceived empathy (not to say it was real empathy but they just think it), motivation to sense that their kindness corrected previous wrongs, coupling charitable behavior to a national sense (no amount of money or funding is limited), and a belief that moral attitude swings only in their favor.
What developed in this period of 2013 to 2015.....was a large segment of German society which had become pro-immigrant, pro-refugee, pro-asylum, pro-integration, etc. Attached to this behavior was the idea that it was all remarkably right and correct....a feeling that no one should dare challenge or suggest they were wrong.
To some degree, the state-run news media defended the cause and came down hard on anyone who challenged the good nature of the gute mensch. Only someone of a lesser intelligence.....would attack the human side of this great characteristic. I was amused by the slant but for a number of months....that was the public counter-attack.
In the intellectual circle of discussion....things were heavily tilted all the way to 2 January 2016. It's amazing to watch the enthusiasm and public sentiment that existed. Even as some numbers decreased in the summer of 2015....the gute mensch crowd in Germany still had a majority and full support of the state-run TV complex.
Oddly, as things came unglued on 2 January across the nation.....folks looked at what happened on New Year's Eve in Koln, with literally hundreds of women groped and people threatened in some way....the gute mensch crowd lost about half of it's willing participants within a few short weeks.
Quietly, people came out of the shadows to note that they'd left the gute mensch crowd in 2014 and 2015....not saying much because they didn't want their associates to really know their feelings had changed drastically. These are people who simply noted that integration wasn't a roaring success....that attitudes among the new arrivals weren't all positive....and that they sensed that being charitable did have its limits.
I grew up in the American south in the 1960s and 1970s.....in what would have been identified as a gute mensch society. It was a dry county where people talked of the good nature of keeping things nice and eliminating alcohol as part of the public sentiment. In the times.....this attitude was considered remarkably right and correct. Over the past decade, those from community who were the gute mensch type.....lost their enthusiasm, and through political elections.....this behavior 'brake' of trying to manipulate a large crowd toward good-feeling accomplishments was dumped.
Most people (I would include Germans in the group) have a sense of doing good in their lives. It's a great trait and admirable. It's at some junction....where logic and actual events meet up, and suddenly you start to ask questions. Some people probably are concreted into the ways and locked into the belief that everyone should be onboard with their righteous mission in life.
Where this good person syndrome goes now? I would speculate that some will hold onto these values (maybe one-third of the nation) and try to keep a firm view of the positive nature of this view. Journalists and intellectuals will probably try to hype the good nature of this syndrome. But in the end, I think at least half of the German public will ask stupid questions, which never seem to be answered, and get frustrated with the future ahead.
If you asked some German to define the 'gute mensch' crowd....it'd be mostly a label attached to some crowd which overflowed with perceived empathy (not to say it was real empathy but they just think it), motivation to sense that their kindness corrected previous wrongs, coupling charitable behavior to a national sense (no amount of money or funding is limited), and a belief that moral attitude swings only in their favor.
What developed in this period of 2013 to 2015.....was a large segment of German society which had become pro-immigrant, pro-refugee, pro-asylum, pro-integration, etc. Attached to this behavior was the idea that it was all remarkably right and correct....a feeling that no one should dare challenge or suggest they were wrong.
To some degree, the state-run news media defended the cause and came down hard on anyone who challenged the good nature of the gute mensch. Only someone of a lesser intelligence.....would attack the human side of this great characteristic. I was amused by the slant but for a number of months....that was the public counter-attack.
In the intellectual circle of discussion....things were heavily tilted all the way to 2 January 2016. It's amazing to watch the enthusiasm and public sentiment that existed. Even as some numbers decreased in the summer of 2015....the gute mensch crowd in Germany still had a majority and full support of the state-run TV complex.
Oddly, as things came unglued on 2 January across the nation.....folks looked at what happened on New Year's Eve in Koln, with literally hundreds of women groped and people threatened in some way....the gute mensch crowd lost about half of it's willing participants within a few short weeks.
Quietly, people came out of the shadows to note that they'd left the gute mensch crowd in 2014 and 2015....not saying much because they didn't want their associates to really know their feelings had changed drastically. These are people who simply noted that integration wasn't a roaring success....that attitudes among the new arrivals weren't all positive....and that they sensed that being charitable did have its limits.
I grew up in the American south in the 1960s and 1970s.....in what would have been identified as a gute mensch society. It was a dry county where people talked of the good nature of keeping things nice and eliminating alcohol as part of the public sentiment. In the times.....this attitude was considered remarkably right and correct. Over the past decade, those from community who were the gute mensch type.....lost their enthusiasm, and through political elections.....this behavior 'brake' of trying to manipulate a large crowd toward good-feeling accomplishments was dumped.
Most people (I would include Germans in the group) have a sense of doing good in their lives. It's a great trait and admirable. It's at some junction....where logic and actual events meet up, and suddenly you start to ask questions. Some people probably are concreted into the ways and locked into the belief that everyone should be onboard with their righteous mission in life.
Where this good person syndrome goes now? I would speculate that some will hold onto these values (maybe one-third of the nation) and try to keep a firm view of the positive nature of this view. Journalists and intellectuals will probably try to hype the good nature of this syndrome. But in the end, I think at least half of the German public will ask stupid questions, which never seem to be answered, and get frustrated with the future ahead.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
The Referendum That Comes
In twelve days, the EU Referendum in the UK will occur. By nine PM that night....the results will be known.
In 1973, the UK joined the EU community. Edmund Heath was the Prime Minister at the time. Two years would pass, and under the guidance of Harold Wilson....a referendum was held and 66-percent of the nation voted 'yes' for the entry idea.
In 1991, the UK went to the next level by saying that it wanted most of the EU entanglements, but without the Euro as a currency. They would keep the Pound.
Right now....the polling anticipates that "Leave the EU" is around 55 percent, meaning "Stay in the EU" is near 45 percent. With only ten days left.....no one expects this move much more than two points up or down.
A month ago, at least with my humble opinion....I would put the stay-crowd nearer to 52 percent.
So the question is.....what's happened between 1975 and 2016 to make a major of British anti-EU?
Rather than simplfied text that some intellectual folks at the BBC would try to deliver and convince the public that they are simply wrong....there is a trail that the EU has taken over the past two decades....which makes one question the mechanism that's been built.
The current trade treaty being worked between the EU and the US.....the TTIP....has been kept mostly under secrecy. Most everyone in the UK, and for that matter....throughout Europe....is a bit peeved because of the secrecy and the anticipation that someone will get screwed. Is the EU guy acting in the best faith for Denmark? Or for the UK? Or for Italy? You can't be sure.
The refugee crisis in the EU? There's a fair amount of hostility brewing in the UK, and the rest of Europe....over the direction of the immigration episode.
The budget episode and rescue package for Greece? You can walk into any British pub and find that a vast majority are against any further help for Greece. They'd like to kick them out of the EU, but the gate-keepers of the EU are firmly against anyone leaving....either on their own or being forced out.
The trade guidelines and rules handed out yearly by the EU? More of a comedy act than anything else.
The threats made over the past week or two by the Germans....on how no trade with EU member states will occur with the UK, if they exit? That just got more grit into the teeth of the British that the Germans would make such a treat.
On the day after the 23rd...if the 'leave' vote wins.....I anticipate at least two countries mounting a referendum of their own by early spring of 2017 (Austria probably will be one of the two). Some worry will occur because there's a trend going on. By the close of this year.....at least three countries will have a vote scheduled by the end of 2017. If there were three more exit-partners in this mess besides the UK.....then it's hard for me to imagine the EU continuing without some massive change in attitude.
The ECB banking 'monster' in Frankfurt? It was supposed to be a creation that would take currency and economics within the EU and proceed ahead as one joint state operation. A lot of folks have put time, effort and sweat into it's creation. There are various strategies laid out by each European country with a dependent nature upoin the ECB to deliver. A swing against the EU wold open up thousands of questions about the survival of the ECB.
So, if you were looking for an authentic can of worms.....this British vote is such a thing.
In 1973, the UK joined the EU community. Edmund Heath was the Prime Minister at the time. Two years would pass, and under the guidance of Harold Wilson....a referendum was held and 66-percent of the nation voted 'yes' for the entry idea.
In 1991, the UK went to the next level by saying that it wanted most of the EU entanglements, but without the Euro as a currency. They would keep the Pound.
Right now....the polling anticipates that "Leave the EU" is around 55 percent, meaning "Stay in the EU" is near 45 percent. With only ten days left.....no one expects this move much more than two points up or down.
A month ago, at least with my humble opinion....I would put the stay-crowd nearer to 52 percent.
So the question is.....what's happened between 1975 and 2016 to make a major of British anti-EU?
Rather than simplfied text that some intellectual folks at the BBC would try to deliver and convince the public that they are simply wrong....there is a trail that the EU has taken over the past two decades....which makes one question the mechanism that's been built.
The current trade treaty being worked between the EU and the US.....the TTIP....has been kept mostly under secrecy. Most everyone in the UK, and for that matter....throughout Europe....is a bit peeved because of the secrecy and the anticipation that someone will get screwed. Is the EU guy acting in the best faith for Denmark? Or for the UK? Or for Italy? You can't be sure.
The refugee crisis in the EU? There's a fair amount of hostility brewing in the UK, and the rest of Europe....over the direction of the immigration episode.
The budget episode and rescue package for Greece? You can walk into any British pub and find that a vast majority are against any further help for Greece. They'd like to kick them out of the EU, but the gate-keepers of the EU are firmly against anyone leaving....either on their own or being forced out.
The trade guidelines and rules handed out yearly by the EU? More of a comedy act than anything else.
The threats made over the past week or two by the Germans....on how no trade with EU member states will occur with the UK, if they exit? That just got more grit into the teeth of the British that the Germans would make such a treat.
On the day after the 23rd...if the 'leave' vote wins.....I anticipate at least two countries mounting a referendum of their own by early spring of 2017 (Austria probably will be one of the two). Some worry will occur because there's a trend going on. By the close of this year.....at least three countries will have a vote scheduled by the end of 2017. If there were three more exit-partners in this mess besides the UK.....then it's hard for me to imagine the EU continuing without some massive change in attitude.
The ECB banking 'monster' in Frankfurt? It was supposed to be a creation that would take currency and economics within the EU and proceed ahead as one joint state operation. A lot of folks have put time, effort and sweat into it's creation. There are various strategies laid out by each European country with a dependent nature upoin the ECB to deliver. A swing against the EU wold open up thousands of questions about the survival of the ECB.
So, if you were looking for an authentic can of worms.....this British vote is such a thing.
Friday, June 10, 2016
The Value of Just One Single Martin Luther
In the big scheme of life.....civilization is often handed a German who able to think outside of the box, and challenges established standards.
Wernher von Braun, Einstein, Max Planck, Alexander von Humbolt, the Brothers Grimm and so on. There are probably a thousand guys who refused to accept things as they are, and went on bigger and bolder things in life.
The guy I tend to admire is Martin Luther. As a young kid, he's bought into the Catholic Church and all of it's dynamics. By 1503, he's deep into the Catholic ideology and progressing toward the simple world of being a priest.
At some point, questions arise. There are various pieces and parts to the Catholic Church which don't make much sense. The more questions that Luther asks.....the less that reason and understanding work.
At the age of thirty-four....the topic of Catholic Indulgences come up. The simplest explanation is that you've sinned an awful lot in life, and if you just had this great get-out-of-hell stamped letter (an indulgence).....then you'd be safe and be allowed into heaven. Naturally, it costs money and the money would go into a pot which the Catholics would use to build more temples, etc. It was a five-star gimmick.
Martin Luther looked at the idea of Catholic Indulgences. Basically.....if you bought one on a Monday, then by Tuesday night....if you broke some rule.....the Indulgence would not cover that new sin and you were back to condemned hell unless you bought a new one. How you'd take this with you as you died.....probably was also a issue.
So Luther asked logical questions that only led onto the fact that the Catholic Church was all screwed up and very unethical. It didn't take a rocket scientist but you needed to be clever enough to ask more questions.
I noticed today some German news item. There was this public school which had decided as a field trip situation.....they'd take a hundred of the kids (considered bright and likely to be heading onto college within a year or two)....and make them into refugees for a day.
You can sense some valuable lesson in life being taught in this deal.
Each kid is given some fictional ID, and told to be such-and-such refugee for the morning. They are taken to some island for 'affected people', and play out the role of refugee. After two hours of role play, the teaches lead the kids off for integration and to be part of German society.
I was amused by the gimmick. It works well and gives the one side of this story in some detail.
Naturally, if there were a Martin Luther in the group....he would have stopped the teachers at some point and asked....why would we not provide airplane tickets and just transport the people into Germany? Why would we not hand these people empty houses which sit in abundance in thousands of rural communities of Germany? Why would we not go and find the chief cause for these people being harmed and stop ISIS? Why is there any need to document people or deny people entry? Why are we paying Turkey to take back refugees? Why are refugees from various lands each treated differently?
This Martin Luther-like character in 2016.....would have been hustled by the teaches to some containment area and told to simply play the role play game.....don't ask questions.
The thing is, we don't really need a thousand Martin Luthers, or a hundred, or even ten.....we just need one Martin Luther-like character to stand up and start asking responsible people simple questions. When they can't answer them, or won't answer them....then we kinda know just how screwed up things have become.
Will the teachers do some role play episode now with a ultra-harsh extremist religious group? No....I kinda doubt that.
Will the teachers lead a role play exercise where some political figure has to admit that there really isn't enough affordable housing, or jobs....for the new immigrant, and then explain to the rest of the role-players why they just need to keep playing the exercise and pretend it'll all be good in the end?
Will the teachers run a role play episode where old DDR is invented and nifty and wonderful socialism was all the craze for forty years? Well.....no.....I doubt that too.
Will the teachers run some role play over Jews and Palestinians? Well...no, that would invite questions as well.
I came across recently a comment by a Chinese businessman which I admired.....which came down to his observation that education was worthless....first you learn, then you forget. He has a point....curiosity in life leads onto asking questions and looking for answers to improve your simple understanding of logic and reasoning.
Germany goes through an enormous reshuffling of civilization after Martin Luther challenges the Catholic Church, and opens up the possibility of some saintly organization being corrupted. The Thirty Years War? Oddly enough......engineered by Luther's questions. The new era in the 1700s that opened up? Mostly due to some pointed questions by Martin Luther.
German is layered over and over.....by Luther, Einstein, the Brothers Grimm, and a hundred other clever guys who refused to accept the given solution or answer. One guy....asking questions....is all it takes.
Wernher von Braun, Einstein, Max Planck, Alexander von Humbolt, the Brothers Grimm and so on. There are probably a thousand guys who refused to accept things as they are, and went on bigger and bolder things in life.
The guy I tend to admire is Martin Luther. As a young kid, he's bought into the Catholic Church and all of it's dynamics. By 1503, he's deep into the Catholic ideology and progressing toward the simple world of being a priest.
At some point, questions arise. There are various pieces and parts to the Catholic Church which don't make much sense. The more questions that Luther asks.....the less that reason and understanding work.
At the age of thirty-four....the topic of Catholic Indulgences come up. The simplest explanation is that you've sinned an awful lot in life, and if you just had this great get-out-of-hell stamped letter (an indulgence).....then you'd be safe and be allowed into heaven. Naturally, it costs money and the money would go into a pot which the Catholics would use to build more temples, etc. It was a five-star gimmick.
Martin Luther looked at the idea of Catholic Indulgences. Basically.....if you bought one on a Monday, then by Tuesday night....if you broke some rule.....the Indulgence would not cover that new sin and you were back to condemned hell unless you bought a new one. How you'd take this with you as you died.....probably was also a issue.
So Luther asked logical questions that only led onto the fact that the Catholic Church was all screwed up and very unethical. It didn't take a rocket scientist but you needed to be clever enough to ask more questions.
I noticed today some German news item. There was this public school which had decided as a field trip situation.....they'd take a hundred of the kids (considered bright and likely to be heading onto college within a year or two)....and make them into refugees for a day.
You can sense some valuable lesson in life being taught in this deal.
Each kid is given some fictional ID, and told to be such-and-such refugee for the morning. They are taken to some island for 'affected people', and play out the role of refugee. After two hours of role play, the teaches lead the kids off for integration and to be part of German society.
I was amused by the gimmick. It works well and gives the one side of this story in some detail.
Naturally, if there were a Martin Luther in the group....he would have stopped the teachers at some point and asked....why would we not provide airplane tickets and just transport the people into Germany? Why would we not hand these people empty houses which sit in abundance in thousands of rural communities of Germany? Why would we not go and find the chief cause for these people being harmed and stop ISIS? Why is there any need to document people or deny people entry? Why are we paying Turkey to take back refugees? Why are refugees from various lands each treated differently?
This Martin Luther-like character in 2016.....would have been hustled by the teaches to some containment area and told to simply play the role play game.....don't ask questions.
The thing is, we don't really need a thousand Martin Luthers, or a hundred, or even ten.....we just need one Martin Luther-like character to stand up and start asking responsible people simple questions. When they can't answer them, or won't answer them....then we kinda know just how screwed up things have become.
Will the teachers do some role play episode now with a ultra-harsh extremist religious group? No....I kinda doubt that.
Will the teachers lead a role play exercise where some political figure has to admit that there really isn't enough affordable housing, or jobs....for the new immigrant, and then explain to the rest of the role-players why they just need to keep playing the exercise and pretend it'll all be good in the end?
Will the teachers run a role play episode where old DDR is invented and nifty and wonderful socialism was all the craze for forty years? Well.....no.....I doubt that too.
Will the teachers run some role play over Jews and Palestinians? Well...no, that would invite questions as well.
I came across recently a comment by a Chinese businessman which I admired.....which came down to his observation that education was worthless....first you learn, then you forget. He has a point....curiosity in life leads onto asking questions and looking for answers to improve your simple understanding of logic and reasoning.
Germany goes through an enormous reshuffling of civilization after Martin Luther challenges the Catholic Church, and opens up the possibility of some saintly organization being corrupted. The Thirty Years War? Oddly enough......engineered by Luther's questions. The new era in the 1700s that opened up? Mostly due to some pointed questions by Martin Luther.
German is layered over and over.....by Luther, Einstein, the Brothers Grimm, and a hundred other clever guys who refused to accept the given solution or answer. One guy....asking questions....is all it takes.
Hahn and Yiqian
Last week, the regional airport at Hahn ended being sold. It's an interesting episode....mostly because neither FRAPORT or the Pfalz-Hessen joint group could see any way to make a profit off the operation. A 12,000 foot runway....ample ramp area, and a number of buildings.....which all lie about 30 minutes from the autobahn and an hour or so from Frankfurt. Undervalued would be labeled across the whole thing, but the the truth is....no can figure out a gimmick to make the airport work or turn a decent profit.
The buyer? The Yiqian Trading Company out of China.
Frankfurt business journalists are in a daze....no knows the company or the boss (Yiqian Liu).
What can generally be said about the guy is that he ended up as a high-school drop out (born in 1963). His family would have been labeled there in the 1970s as dirt-poor and absolutely from the working class.
In Shanghai, by 1979.....he ended up quitting school and getting into some kind of family business deal....making women's leather bags and selling them. It's not exactly the kind of stuff that legends are made from.
Yiqian has one interesting characteristic in his favor.....he asks questions and looks for a way to cut production costs. In this very minor handbag deal....he's stumbled along to some way to make the bags cheaper and thus undercut all of his competition. Somewhere in this age group of 16 to 18.....he's advanced a step or two in life that most don't grasp until they are well into their thirties.
I spent a fair amount of time reading up on Yiqian, and find that for a decade while in this leather bag buildup.....he made a fair amount of profit and the only real place to stick his profits....treasury bonds. Most people will agree....it's about the safest place to put money, but lousy for profits.
Around 1991 (age 28), he's made a trip into Shanghai to buy supplies. Kinda like the Jack and the Beanstalk episode....Yiqian discovers the stock exchange. Based on the description written of this moment.....it's kinda like a kid in a candy factory.
Yiqian has some element of risk built into his mental side.....and takes a stock bet (perhaps a put, but it's never discussed to any degree)....he walks out with roughly $100,000 in profit. In the beanstalk world.....that's absolutely magic.
So begins this nine-year episode of Yiqian continually walking into the stock market and making such put-calls. He has learned the art of risk and knows how to make it work.
Somewhere around 2000, he forms up a company to take on bigger risks and get deeply into the stock market. It takes his company around fifteen years but they eventually reach a point with capital that they can afford to buy the majority ownership of Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical. He diversifies and buys into technology and energy-related companies.
His public side? Thats a curious one because he's bought a fair amount of art, and he's noted in Shanghai for his impressive collection.
Someone did a decent interview with him, and asked his opinion of education. It's kinda surprising what he said.....he thought education was useless.....first you learn, then you forget.
As for ownership of other airports? No.....I did a fair amount of research so far and can't find a single situation where they own airports. So this Hahn purchase is a puzzling episode.
Mr Yiqian is absolutely a guy with some plan in his mind, where he can cut costs and make something work in the end...with profit. So he sees Hahn in that manner. It'll be interesting to see the airport in ten years and what has been done with it.
The buyer? The Yiqian Trading Company out of China.
Frankfurt business journalists are in a daze....no knows the company or the boss (Yiqian Liu).
What can generally be said about the guy is that he ended up as a high-school drop out (born in 1963). His family would have been labeled there in the 1970s as dirt-poor and absolutely from the working class.
In Shanghai, by 1979.....he ended up quitting school and getting into some kind of family business deal....making women's leather bags and selling them. It's not exactly the kind of stuff that legends are made from.
Yiqian has one interesting characteristic in his favor.....he asks questions and looks for a way to cut production costs. In this very minor handbag deal....he's stumbled along to some way to make the bags cheaper and thus undercut all of his competition. Somewhere in this age group of 16 to 18.....he's advanced a step or two in life that most don't grasp until they are well into their thirties.
I spent a fair amount of time reading up on Yiqian, and find that for a decade while in this leather bag buildup.....he made a fair amount of profit and the only real place to stick his profits....treasury bonds. Most people will agree....it's about the safest place to put money, but lousy for profits.
Around 1991 (age 28), he's made a trip into Shanghai to buy supplies. Kinda like the Jack and the Beanstalk episode....Yiqian discovers the stock exchange. Based on the description written of this moment.....it's kinda like a kid in a candy factory.
Yiqian has some element of risk built into his mental side.....and takes a stock bet (perhaps a put, but it's never discussed to any degree)....he walks out with roughly $100,000 in profit. In the beanstalk world.....that's absolutely magic.
So begins this nine-year episode of Yiqian continually walking into the stock market and making such put-calls. He has learned the art of risk and knows how to make it work.
Somewhere around 2000, he forms up a company to take on bigger risks and get deeply into the stock market. It takes his company around fifteen years but they eventually reach a point with capital that they can afford to buy the majority ownership of Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical. He diversifies and buys into technology and energy-related companies.
His public side? Thats a curious one because he's bought a fair amount of art, and he's noted in Shanghai for his impressive collection.
Someone did a decent interview with him, and asked his opinion of education. It's kinda surprising what he said.....he thought education was useless.....first you learn, then you forget.
As for ownership of other airports? No.....I did a fair amount of research so far and can't find a single situation where they own airports. So this Hahn purchase is a puzzling episode.
Mr Yiqian is absolutely a guy with some plan in his mind, where he can cut costs and make something work in the end...with profit. So he sees Hahn in that manner. It'll be interesting to see the airport in ten years and what has been done with it.
Thursday, June 9, 2016
Affordable Housing Essay
I often mention the lack of affordable housing in Germany. This is one of those essays where I drill down into the topic.
If you lined up a dozen Germans in some urban zone pub and really got the "what's your top ten issues" going....eventually at least half would agree that affordable housing in urban areas is pretty screwed up. The same dozen, from some rural town in the midst of Bavaria, with 600 residents in the village....would rate this problem as number 833 on their list of issues.
Political folks like the issue because it's easy to chat about and they can attend forums and note they are all for creating more affordable housing. The thing.....it just doesn't happen that easily....especially if you live in some city like Frankfurt or Koln.
Naturally, an American would ask why.
The first issue is that cities have a lot of neighborhood groups focused on green areas and getting some new unused property blessed for large apartment projects....takes a lot of energy and dedication. Once you start this process....it could take a year or two....before the property is blessed for such a project. Added to this thrilling experience....is the environmental issues. Some city councils will demand that the project must be "green" enhanced....meaning gardens, landscape, and playgrounds. All of this kind of stuff means that you need twice the amount of land space as the original intent required.
From today's news in Focus....I noticed that the Housing Ministry in Germany had their chief (an SPD member) to comment on trying to kindle the flame for more housing.
Frau Hendricks (the minister in question) noted that the current trend is mostly around single people (not families)....in highly urbanized areas. So she wants to create projects where parking isn't required, and apartments are built to around 30 square meters (roughly 322 square feet for Americans).
Most people would scratch their head over 322 square feet. It's basically a studio apartment with a corner kitchen, some sofa, a small desk built into the wall, a twin bed, and a bathroom that you can barely walk into.
The idea behind this push is that such projects would cost less money and be very affordable. My guess is that you could rent (at least in the Wiesbaden area) something like this for 350 to 450 Euro ($425 to $530 roughly). In Frankfurt, maybe more.
What Hendricks gets around to.....which is absolutely true....in today's world of construction projects for affordable housing...if you count everything involved, there are around 20,000 standards in the construction sector. Twenty years ago....it would have been just 5000 standards.
What happens if the 30 square meter idea took off? Well, it would invite social change. Imagine yourself as some 28-year-old guy and you actively dated, and one day bumped into some gal who took your breathe away. But then reality hit.....both of you have such a 30 square meter place, and the idea of sharing or living in one place? Non-existent. So you arranged a relationship, and for the next twenty-odd years.....did the single business and avoided a marriage until you were both into your late forties. No kids, just a social arrangement because of the newly created housing solution.
In a way, it's a solution that works but it's obviously creating other problems down the line.
Why not just build larger apartment complexes, each with 80 square meters each? The guys who have the investment capital.....want a real return....something that they can touch and feel in four years as each condo is sold.
About 10 kilometers from my village....further out from Wiesbaden, is the town of Idstein. Idstein has a population of 23,000, and it's laid out against an entire valley, with the autobahn on one side, and a train-line which runs through the side of the valley. Oddly, their city council had no problem with approving construction, and they've been on this construction 'binge' for a decade at least. In five years, they will probably add another 5,000 residents to the town (these are mostly larger sized reihenhauses which sell to families). The town has all the comforts of a bigger town, but well-suited for a town of 23,000 (theater, hardware store, at least six groceries, a train station, and a golf course near by).
At some point, I expect bigger cities to give up on the idea of building more housing because of all the hassle, and folks will realize that it's more practical to live 20 to 40 kilometers away from work, in a smaller town with railway access.
If you lined up a dozen Germans in some urban zone pub and really got the "what's your top ten issues" going....eventually at least half would agree that affordable housing in urban areas is pretty screwed up. The same dozen, from some rural town in the midst of Bavaria, with 600 residents in the village....would rate this problem as number 833 on their list of issues.
Political folks like the issue because it's easy to chat about and they can attend forums and note they are all for creating more affordable housing. The thing.....it just doesn't happen that easily....especially if you live in some city like Frankfurt or Koln.
Naturally, an American would ask why.
The first issue is that cities have a lot of neighborhood groups focused on green areas and getting some new unused property blessed for large apartment projects....takes a lot of energy and dedication. Once you start this process....it could take a year or two....before the property is blessed for such a project. Added to this thrilling experience....is the environmental issues. Some city councils will demand that the project must be "green" enhanced....meaning gardens, landscape, and playgrounds. All of this kind of stuff means that you need twice the amount of land space as the original intent required.
From today's news in Focus....I noticed that the Housing Ministry in Germany had their chief (an SPD member) to comment on trying to kindle the flame for more housing.
Frau Hendricks (the minister in question) noted that the current trend is mostly around single people (not families)....in highly urbanized areas. So she wants to create projects where parking isn't required, and apartments are built to around 30 square meters (roughly 322 square feet for Americans).
Most people would scratch their head over 322 square feet. It's basically a studio apartment with a corner kitchen, some sofa, a small desk built into the wall, a twin bed, and a bathroom that you can barely walk into.
The idea behind this push is that such projects would cost less money and be very affordable. My guess is that you could rent (at least in the Wiesbaden area) something like this for 350 to 450 Euro ($425 to $530 roughly). In Frankfurt, maybe more.
What Hendricks gets around to.....which is absolutely true....in today's world of construction projects for affordable housing...if you count everything involved, there are around 20,000 standards in the construction sector. Twenty years ago....it would have been just 5000 standards.
What happens if the 30 square meter idea took off? Well, it would invite social change. Imagine yourself as some 28-year-old guy and you actively dated, and one day bumped into some gal who took your breathe away. But then reality hit.....both of you have such a 30 square meter place, and the idea of sharing or living in one place? Non-existent. So you arranged a relationship, and for the next twenty-odd years.....did the single business and avoided a marriage until you were both into your late forties. No kids, just a social arrangement because of the newly created housing solution.
In a way, it's a solution that works but it's obviously creating other problems down the line.
Why not just build larger apartment complexes, each with 80 square meters each? The guys who have the investment capital.....want a real return....something that they can touch and feel in four years as each condo is sold.
About 10 kilometers from my village....further out from Wiesbaden, is the town of Idstein. Idstein has a population of 23,000, and it's laid out against an entire valley, with the autobahn on one side, and a train-line which runs through the side of the valley. Oddly, their city council had no problem with approving construction, and they've been on this construction 'binge' for a decade at least. In five years, they will probably add another 5,000 residents to the town (these are mostly larger sized reihenhauses which sell to families). The town has all the comforts of a bigger town, but well-suited for a town of 23,000 (theater, hardware store, at least six groceries, a train station, and a golf course near by).
At some point, I expect bigger cities to give up on the idea of building more housing because of all the hassle, and folks will realize that it's more practical to live 20 to 40 kilometers away from work, in a smaller town with railway access.
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
The Fire Story
I often look through a news item....knowing that there is a bit more to the story. So I'm patient and eventually will get to the true theme of what happened.
Sometimes though....you start to take a story apart and realize that it's almost too comical to tell to regular people because no one will believe just how screwed up the mess was, and how it unfolded in a matter of minutes....turning into a colossal mound of crap.
So it begins in Dusseldorf, with a ingenious idea to use the major international trade fair area down on the west part of town....near the Rhine River. The city needed a real area where refugees could be housed for a fair amount of time, which was heated and could be fixed in a way to allow for showers and toilets. From a practical way, it made sense to use the Messe.
The operation was set up, and eventually it made sense to hire some former members of the refugee center as part of their staff.
Early on, from the Berlin prospective....it was talked about how you really shouldn't mix group A with group B....tensions or national conflict....take your pick. The intellectual crowd in Berlin were kinda bright and noted how they could manage things like this in a smart way.
The staff guys? Mostly Iranian.
The majority of occupants at the facility? A mix of Afghans and Moroccans.
A fire was set a couple of days ago within the building....because of a conflict between the Moroccans and Iranian security folks. Why you ask?
Well....it's Ramadan. Rule number one of Ramadan is that you can only eat and drink.....before the sun comes up, or after the sun goes down. If you take Ramadan serious.....you must obey the rule.
What happens if you were to wake up at 4:44AM? Well.....the sun would be rising. At that point, as a legit Muslim member....you can't sip any water or eat anything. You probably should have been up at 4AM.....to get down as much water as possible and hope to last through the day.
What happened in the Messe building? Well....the Iranian guys didn't come to wake folks up early, so the sun started to rise, and the pretty serious folks from Morocco came to realize how screwed up things were.
Naturally, this led quickly to tempers reaching a peak, and setting the building on fire.
I know....in the real world....most folks don't get fired up like this at O'dark-thirty as the sun is rising, but this is how things played out in Dussldorf.
Now, you might go back and ask....did the silly Iranians do this on purpose? There is some belief by various members of the facility.....that tensions had risen to a point where the Iranian didn't really desire to be helpful.
You can imagine some German cop standing there....with some social office guy, and some city council guy, and asking why exactly did the Iranian guys not wake up their associates. Nothing about this would make sense to the typical German. But they don't go around trying to last twelve hours in June.....without any water until sun-down.
What will happen now? I'm guessing that the Iranian guards or support personnel will be laid off or sent elsewhere, and a couple of regular Germans will be hired and told in strong language to wake everyone up at O'dark-thirty to ensure they meet Ramadan rules.
A crazy world? Well...the German folks are getting to a point of discovering that. And if you tried to explain this all to a regular German.....about half-way through....they'd ask for a shot or two of some strong liquor. After the end of the story.....your German friend will shake their head, and it's best to sum it all up....."It's a bold new world out there".
Sometimes though....you start to take a story apart and realize that it's almost too comical to tell to regular people because no one will believe just how screwed up the mess was, and how it unfolded in a matter of minutes....turning into a colossal mound of crap.
So it begins in Dusseldorf, with a ingenious idea to use the major international trade fair area down on the west part of town....near the Rhine River. The city needed a real area where refugees could be housed for a fair amount of time, which was heated and could be fixed in a way to allow for showers and toilets. From a practical way, it made sense to use the Messe.
The operation was set up, and eventually it made sense to hire some former members of the refugee center as part of their staff.
Early on, from the Berlin prospective....it was talked about how you really shouldn't mix group A with group B....tensions or national conflict....take your pick. The intellectual crowd in Berlin were kinda bright and noted how they could manage things like this in a smart way.
The staff guys? Mostly Iranian.
The majority of occupants at the facility? A mix of Afghans and Moroccans.
A fire was set a couple of days ago within the building....because of a conflict between the Moroccans and Iranian security folks. Why you ask?
Well....it's Ramadan. Rule number one of Ramadan is that you can only eat and drink.....before the sun comes up, or after the sun goes down. If you take Ramadan serious.....you must obey the rule.
What happens if you were to wake up at 4:44AM? Well.....the sun would be rising. At that point, as a legit Muslim member....you can't sip any water or eat anything. You probably should have been up at 4AM.....to get down as much water as possible and hope to last through the day.
What happened in the Messe building? Well....the Iranian guys didn't come to wake folks up early, so the sun started to rise, and the pretty serious folks from Morocco came to realize how screwed up things were.
Naturally, this led quickly to tempers reaching a peak, and setting the building on fire.
I know....in the real world....most folks don't get fired up like this at O'dark-thirty as the sun is rising, but this is how things played out in Dussldorf.
Now, you might go back and ask....did the silly Iranians do this on purpose? There is some belief by various members of the facility.....that tensions had risen to a point where the Iranian didn't really desire to be helpful.
You can imagine some German cop standing there....with some social office guy, and some city council guy, and asking why exactly did the Iranian guys not wake up their associates. Nothing about this would make sense to the typical German. But they don't go around trying to last twelve hours in June.....without any water until sun-down.
What will happen now? I'm guessing that the Iranian guards or support personnel will be laid off or sent elsewhere, and a couple of regular Germans will be hired and told in strong language to wake everyone up at O'dark-thirty to ensure they meet Ramadan rules.
A crazy world? Well...the German folks are getting to a point of discovering that. And if you tried to explain this all to a regular German.....about half-way through....they'd ask for a shot or two of some strong liquor. After the end of the story.....your German friend will shake their head, and it's best to sum it all up....."It's a bold new world out there".
German Definition of "Foreigner"
This topic comes up today because the federal cops in Germany announced the statistical numbers for the first quarter of 2016 on crime and foreigner-produced crime. There were 69,000 foreigner-connected crimes in Germany for the months of January, February and March.
Now, what does foreigner mean?
Well.....that's the thing....they can't break this down any further.
I started to notice early in 2015 with the local news organizations in Wiesbaden that reported on city crime.....occasionally, they'd note that the culprit (whether never caught) was generally announced by the victim to have a 'East European' accent. That typically means that they come from Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Albania, or Belarus. Note, it generally does NOT mean Greece, Turkey, Czech, or Hungary.....at least when you bring this topic up with an average German.
How do you get the label of 'East European'? Typically, it comes down to an accent which the German can't attach to the average twenty-odd German accents (the Franken-accent, the Bavarian-accent, the Swiss-accent, the Saar-accent, the Hessen-accent, etc) or to any of the twenty European-German accents (French-German, Dutch-German, English-German, Swede-German, etc). To be honest, if you tried to test a dozen Germans on correctly identifying the 'East European' accent, they'd probably fail on 99-percent of the possibilities.
Added to this, which you occasionally will see in the crime reports in the paper....the German victim will allure to the dress of the criminal in some way ("They looked Eastern European"). Or that the culprit had the appearance of a southern eastern European (oily hair, tan, etc). Cops write this stuff down, but frankly, I suspect they are amused at the twelve different description items of a person that they saw for less than ten seconds.
If you go and read the general press from regional newspapers and state-run news networks....you come to three general statements.
1. There are a number of criminal gangs operating in Germany with the central mission of burglarizing houses. Most of the gangs relate to the Eastern Europe region.
2. There are very few Syrians or Iraqis ever noted in any criminal offense. The worst that you can say is that they get into verbal altercations with each other in the refugee camps and fight over insults among themselves.
3. In Koln, a fair number of the Moroccans are running the drug kingpin operations around the Dom and train-station. Ex-cops from Koln have said this repeatedly and noted that there just aren't enough cops around to really bring the issue to a close.
So, when you the German say 'foreigner'.....you need to think about what he's really saying. He's just making the fair observation that it's not a German, and probably not some French guy or American.
Now, what does foreigner mean?
Well.....that's the thing....they can't break this down any further.
I started to notice early in 2015 with the local news organizations in Wiesbaden that reported on city crime.....occasionally, they'd note that the culprit (whether never caught) was generally announced by the victim to have a 'East European' accent. That typically means that they come from Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Albania, or Belarus. Note, it generally does NOT mean Greece, Turkey, Czech, or Hungary.....at least when you bring this topic up with an average German.
How do you get the label of 'East European'? Typically, it comes down to an accent which the German can't attach to the average twenty-odd German accents (the Franken-accent, the Bavarian-accent, the Swiss-accent, the Saar-accent, the Hessen-accent, etc) or to any of the twenty European-German accents (French-German, Dutch-German, English-German, Swede-German, etc). To be honest, if you tried to test a dozen Germans on correctly identifying the 'East European' accent, they'd probably fail on 99-percent of the possibilities.
Added to this, which you occasionally will see in the crime reports in the paper....the German victim will allure to the dress of the criminal in some way ("They looked Eastern European"). Or that the culprit had the appearance of a southern eastern European (oily hair, tan, etc). Cops write this stuff down, but frankly, I suspect they are amused at the twelve different description items of a person that they saw for less than ten seconds.
If you go and read the general press from regional newspapers and state-run news networks....you come to three general statements.
1. There are a number of criminal gangs operating in Germany with the central mission of burglarizing houses. Most of the gangs relate to the Eastern Europe region.
2. There are very few Syrians or Iraqis ever noted in any criminal offense. The worst that you can say is that they get into verbal altercations with each other in the refugee camps and fight over insults among themselves.
3. In Koln, a fair number of the Moroccans are running the drug kingpin operations around the Dom and train-station. Ex-cops from Koln have said this repeatedly and noted that there just aren't enough cops around to really bring the issue to a close.
So, when you the German say 'foreigner'.....you need to think about what he's really saying. He's just making the fair observation that it's not a German, and probably not some French guy or American.
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
The Rules on the German Presidency
Since Gauck is retiring in the spring of 2017.....the office of President in Germany will come up.
Being President is different from the Chancellor's job. You avoid politics and generally have a pleasant attitude to all political groups in Germany.
To be elected to the office of German President....a Convention is held (usually every five years unless there's a early dismissal or death). The Convention will occur in the Reichstag building.
The head of the Bundestag will convene the meeting. He will direct the date and be held responsible for the preparation of the vote.
The Basic Law (the German consititution) says that this Convention must occur 30 days before the end of the President's term of office.
Who meets at the Convention? Every member of the Bundestag and an equal number of the 16 states (50-50 split). The number of representatives sent.....is based off a running tally of each of the 16 states (hence, the polling info is kinda important). The states will then do a proportional represenation of the parties within their state group.....so oddly enough....the Pirate Party and the AfD will show up.
One odd factor in this election? No open debate. Anyone in the audience can vote for anyone, as long as they are forty years old and a German citizen. In some theory.....there could be several votes for soccer coaches, TV moderators, and even actors.
You have to receive an absolute majority on the first or second ballots. But the rule says as you get into a third ballot.....a "relative" majority is enough. This is interpreted in various ways.....so you might end up on the third ballot with six different players, and one is able to get 33-percent of the vote and they end the talks right there.
Could new names be added on the second and third ballot? In theory, yes.
Could some devious CSU guy put up Jan Bohmermann.....the satire guy who upset Erdogan from Turkey? Yes.
What the intellectuals said last night on TV news was that the Greens are now hopeful that they can run up a deal where they talk the SPD into voting for their guy, in return for support. The question would be....why would the SPD dump their chance to get their guy into the position.
The odds are that there will be three ballots, and some shocker of a name will show up on the first ballot which interests everyone (like some female soccer coach), and everyone suddenly jumps up to push their secret vote for this gal. Then she'd get some phone call and be kinda shocked that any idiot would vote for her as German President.
Being President is different from the Chancellor's job. You avoid politics and generally have a pleasant attitude to all political groups in Germany.
To be elected to the office of German President....a Convention is held (usually every five years unless there's a early dismissal or death). The Convention will occur in the Reichstag building.
The head of the Bundestag will convene the meeting. He will direct the date and be held responsible for the preparation of the vote.
The Basic Law (the German consititution) says that this Convention must occur 30 days before the end of the President's term of office.
Who meets at the Convention? Every member of the Bundestag and an equal number of the 16 states (50-50 split). The number of representatives sent.....is based off a running tally of each of the 16 states (hence, the polling info is kinda important). The states will then do a proportional represenation of the parties within their state group.....so oddly enough....the Pirate Party and the AfD will show up.
One odd factor in this election? No open debate. Anyone in the audience can vote for anyone, as long as they are forty years old and a German citizen. In some theory.....there could be several votes for soccer coaches, TV moderators, and even actors.
You have to receive an absolute majority on the first or second ballots. But the rule says as you get into a third ballot.....a "relative" majority is enough. This is interpreted in various ways.....so you might end up on the third ballot with six different players, and one is able to get 33-percent of the vote and they end the talks right there.
Could new names be added on the second and third ballot? In theory, yes.
Could some devious CSU guy put up Jan Bohmermann.....the satire guy who upset Erdogan from Turkey? Yes.
What the intellectuals said last night on TV news was that the Greens are now hopeful that they can run up a deal where they talk the SPD into voting for their guy, in return for support. The question would be....why would the SPD dump their chance to get their guy into the position.
The odds are that there will be three ballots, and some shocker of a name will show up on the first ballot which interests everyone (like some female soccer coach), and everyone suddenly jumps up to push their secret vote for this gal. Then she'd get some phone call and be kinda shocked that any idiot would vote for her as German President.
Hanau
There's not a lot that I remember from one Saturday afternoon in the spring of 1979 and spending a day in Hanau. To be honest, at least in those days....it wasn't impressive in any way or shape. Much has changed over the decades.
It's a easy town to go walking around. If you arrive by train....walk out of the train station....straight ahead....about 500 ft and you come to the round-about (you can turn left or right only). Turn left and and head toward the center of town (maybe a 15 minute walk).
It has a great shopping district, and various coffee shops and pubs. The Forum is a decent sized mall area.
Artsy? Yeah, probably a lot more than I remember from the late 1970s.
It's definitely worth an afternoon trip to Hanau.
I should note as well....the S-Bahn S9 network runs from Wiesbaden to Frankfurt and onto Hanau, and back....making it easy to reach.
Monday, June 6, 2016
Who is the Yiqian Trading Company?
Over the weekend, Hahn Airport (twenty-odd miles west of Frankfurt) was bought.
For the last two years....Hahn has been a problem airport....under the threat of sale.
In the 1950s....the Americans came and made Hahn into a major Air Force installation. The runway was one of the longest in Europe (12,467 feet long). At one point in the 1980s....they had three squadrons of F-16s there and within the footprint of Hahn were 13,000 military and dependent personnel.
The negative to the US operation there? Well....this was one of the most rural installations that you might find for any US military operation in Germany. While it's true that you could drive for 35-to-45 minutes and reach some real city (like Mainz or Wiesbaden), there really wasn't much around the exterior of the base. Added to this thrilling situation....some of the more extreme weather in winter, with some terrible fog episodes which would develop and make life miserable there.
So in 1991, it was fairly easy for the Air Force to make the decision to shut down Hahn. The German government evaluated various options and ended with some deal where FRAPORT (the Frankfurt Airport) ended up with ownership. In 2009.....FRAPORT took it's ownership and sold it to the Rhineland Pfalz government for roughly one Euro (yeah, it is a bit shocking). There's some debt episode tied to the deal and it seems like FRAPORT got covered in some way for its debt (120 million Euro is mentioned).
Why dump Hahn from the FRAPORT plan? No one ever says much. Maybe the angle for the cargo business didn't play out....maybe the infrastructure costs was too much.....maybe the passenger trade couldn't be increased.
Eventually, the Pfalz government ended up with a deal with the Hessen state gov't. They kept hoping that cargo business would improve (it didn't). By the middle of 2015, it was apparent that a deal would have to be made and just dump the airport. Bidders mostly came from China, Asia and Amazon.
In the end, the Yizian Trading Company won the deal. So you might ask.....who the heck are they?
They come under the leadership of Liu Yizian. He started out in life as a taxi-driver who was aggressive on making deals, and knew how to take risks. He is considered one of the top twenty businessmen of China today. Typically....his deals don't fail.
How will Yizian make use out of Hahn?
The old base is fairly sizeable. There's ample room to add more pavement and depot buildings. From the front gate area is highway 50 which runs east-west, and is roughly a 20-minute drive over to A61 which cuts through the middle of Germany and could take you to Hamburg or Munich....or into Frankfurt in a matter of 40 minutes.
If your plan was to have an import-export operation of a massive size, and have a cargo delivery schedule of forty-odd planes a day landing at Hahn with clothing, bags, etc....which operates on a distribution system throughout all of central Europe (France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, etc), then this makes absolute sense. But it also means aggressive marketing and puts the Yizian team at the same level of Amazon in less than five years.
Did the Pfalz and Hessen lose on their investment deal of Hahn? Yes. But to be truthful....once FRAPORT decided that they couldn't make anything out of this deal....it should have been obvious that a state-owned operation wasn't going to make much success out of this either. The Yizian operation? They are fundamentally about taking on risks and getting paid back for that risk.
So once they deliver a cargo at Hahn....what exactly do you think will be there for the return trip? German wine, German cheese, German high quality ties, etc. Some Chinese guy will show up at a wine depot and swing some deal for forty pallets of 6-Euro bottles of wine, which will be packed up and taken by airplane to China....where it'll be sold for 16 Euro a bottle and bought by upper-class Chinese guys trying to impress their Chinese girlfriend. Then the guy will whip out some German-made fancy watch which was also carried as cargo and he paid the equivalent of 2,000 Euro for the gift to impress the girlfriend.
It may take three years, but this might be one of the major success stories in the region by 2020.
For the last two years....Hahn has been a problem airport....under the threat of sale.
In the 1950s....the Americans came and made Hahn into a major Air Force installation. The runway was one of the longest in Europe (12,467 feet long). At one point in the 1980s....they had three squadrons of F-16s there and within the footprint of Hahn were 13,000 military and dependent personnel.
The negative to the US operation there? Well....this was one of the most rural installations that you might find for any US military operation in Germany. While it's true that you could drive for 35-to-45 minutes and reach some real city (like Mainz or Wiesbaden), there really wasn't much around the exterior of the base. Added to this thrilling situation....some of the more extreme weather in winter, with some terrible fog episodes which would develop and make life miserable there.
So in 1991, it was fairly easy for the Air Force to make the decision to shut down Hahn. The German government evaluated various options and ended with some deal where FRAPORT (the Frankfurt Airport) ended up with ownership. In 2009.....FRAPORT took it's ownership and sold it to the Rhineland Pfalz government for roughly one Euro (yeah, it is a bit shocking). There's some debt episode tied to the deal and it seems like FRAPORT got covered in some way for its debt (120 million Euro is mentioned).
Why dump Hahn from the FRAPORT plan? No one ever says much. Maybe the angle for the cargo business didn't play out....maybe the infrastructure costs was too much.....maybe the passenger trade couldn't be increased.
Eventually, the Pfalz government ended up with a deal with the Hessen state gov't. They kept hoping that cargo business would improve (it didn't). By the middle of 2015, it was apparent that a deal would have to be made and just dump the airport. Bidders mostly came from China, Asia and Amazon.
In the end, the Yizian Trading Company won the deal. So you might ask.....who the heck are they?
They come under the leadership of Liu Yizian. He started out in life as a taxi-driver who was aggressive on making deals, and knew how to take risks. He is considered one of the top twenty businessmen of China today. Typically....his deals don't fail.
How will Yizian make use out of Hahn?
The old base is fairly sizeable. There's ample room to add more pavement and depot buildings. From the front gate area is highway 50 which runs east-west, and is roughly a 20-minute drive over to A61 which cuts through the middle of Germany and could take you to Hamburg or Munich....or into Frankfurt in a matter of 40 minutes.
If your plan was to have an import-export operation of a massive size, and have a cargo delivery schedule of forty-odd planes a day landing at Hahn with clothing, bags, etc....which operates on a distribution system throughout all of central Europe (France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, etc), then this makes absolute sense. But it also means aggressive marketing and puts the Yizian team at the same level of Amazon in less than five years.
Did the Pfalz and Hessen lose on their investment deal of Hahn? Yes. But to be truthful....once FRAPORT decided that they couldn't make anything out of this deal....it should have been obvious that a state-owned operation wasn't going to make much success out of this either. The Yizian operation? They are fundamentally about taking on risks and getting paid back for that risk.
So once they deliver a cargo at Hahn....what exactly do you think will be there for the return trip? German wine, German cheese, German high quality ties, etc. Some Chinese guy will show up at a wine depot and swing some deal for forty pallets of 6-Euro bottles of wine, which will be packed up and taken by airplane to China....where it'll be sold for 16 Euro a bottle and bought by upper-class Chinese guys trying to impress their Chinese girlfriend. Then the guy will whip out some German-made fancy watch which was also carried as cargo and he paid the equivalent of 2,000 Euro for the gift to impress the girlfriend.
It may take three years, but this might be one of the major success stories in the region by 2020.
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