Nothing about BREXIT really surprises me. By the morning of 24 June 2016 (the day after the measure was voted upon)....the matter was concreted down and going to progress. I do believe that 20-odd million British people were fairly shocked, and in some belief that the 'remain' vote would be up around sixty-percent (it was 48.1-percent). This denial has been more of the shocker than anything else.
So what happens in 2020 now? I will suggest four elements:
1. A US trade team will arrive shortly, and trade talks will begin to work themselves to a conclusion by mid-summer. I see travel restrictions shifted in a dramatic way, with roughly 90-percent of Brits given immediate entry into the US (those with criminal records being the only ones with issues). I think agricultural trade will take off. The trade income for the UK, with the US? I'll go and suggest it going up by 50-percent over the next two years.
2. A series of European countries waiting, and waiting, and waiting....for the EU to wrap up the trade talks by the end of 2020.....will realize nothing much is happening. By late 2020, I think a minimum of five European countries will embark on their own trade deal.....then get heavily criticized by the EU headquarters that this is not their business to interfere with the EU trade talks. People will laugh over the stalling by the EU folks, and other European countries will follow.
3. The country most hurt by this wait-and-see behavior of the EU? Germany. By early 2021, with the fall election approaching in Germany....this lack of a deal will become one of the top ten issues of the campaign.
4. Finally, economic numbers, and job growth in the UK....for 2020.....will look great. The EU economic experts will be standing there and shaking their heads....wondering about their predictions, and what happened.
I'm not saying it's all great news. But it will dramatically prove the point that the EU wasn't something that you needed to run all affairs.
No comments:
Post a Comment