I'm not a PhD type, or a science geek....but I spend a fair amount of time reading through journals, newspapers, watching telecasts, and reviewing financial/history summaries. So I'm laying out my list of ten things which probably are in the mix for 2021 and Germany's Covid-19 situation.
1. The super-vaccine arriving? I'm skeptical that it prevents you 100-percent from getting Covid-19. So it won't shock me if 30 to 40 percent of Germans still contract the virus and go through a 3-to-5 day bout with it. If it prevents deaths at the current rate....that's good enough on expectations.
But if this virus continues after the vaccine is pumped into folks....then the masks won't go away, and we will not ever get totally away from ban-rules.
2. I suspect by March....a lot of Germans will want to be planning a July/August vacation, and they will demanding the vaccination. I emphasize the word 'demand'.
3. I suspect that most airlines will demand a certificate of your vaccination by late spring, and attempting to travel beyond German borders will mean that vaccine episode will have to be accomplished.
4. I'm skeptical that the majority of bars and pubs that were open in 2018....will still be around in March as they reopen. It won't shock me if a quarter of them simply disappear because of finance issues.
5. The unemployment rate ought to be one of the three top political issues of 2021, for the state and federal election business.
6. I'm skeptical that teachers will believe that kids wrapping up their school year in June of 2021 will be confident that the kid actually got 'fully educated', in this light-weight school-year.
7. I'm skeptical that the vaccine will have the totally desired effect on 70 and 80 year old Germans, keeping them safe from the virus.
8. I'm skeptical the vaccine facilities will be that busy by week ten, and a couple hundred reservation slots per day will probably occur with no 'customer'.
9. I'm skeptical that the Germans ever get past 90-percent of the public vaccinated. There's likely to be some 10-percent group existing for years into the future....who refuse the vaccination.
10. Finally, I'm skeptical about tourism returning to normal in 2021, or that the majority of hotels survive (which exist now).
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