First, will the state election slated for mid-March occur? Every indication suggests that it'll go forward. A lot of chatter exists....to say it'll be moved to September (national election period) because of Covid-19.
The current trend analysis, if it holds to mid-March?
The Green Party ought to win this....in the neighborhood of 30-to-34 percent. The CDU ought to be near 28-to-30 percent. It's likely to be a 1-to-3 point win for the Greens. If it's beyond 5-points difference....it's a serious problem for the CDU.
The AfD? Likely sitting back with the SPD.....both getting near 11-to-12 percent. The FDP folks won't be getting more than 8-percent max.
A problem 2nd place for the CDU? It'll be long discussed and demonstrate weak points for them in the fall.
I should note this about the Green Party in Baden-Wurttemberg....they aren't exactly reading the same script as the national Green Party. Jobs and the economy matter to this state's Green Party participants.
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