Last week, the CDU Party wrapped up it's party-chief selection (this is not the Chancellor candidate selection deal, but usually...the party-chief ends up as the Chancellor candidate in elections). Friedrich Merz was NOT selected. Most folks would have said he had the better odds back in October, but the party meeting was cancelled because of Covid-19 worries. So in the end, the motivation went toward the Merkel-supported guy....Armin Laschet.
Drama following this selection? Well, most people who vote CDU (conservative type folks)....have indicated that it's time for 'change' (meaning the Merkel era needs to end). Laschet's chatter at this point? He mostly says he'll keep the path geared toward the Merkel agenda....changing literally nothing.
Merz came out of the meeting and suggested that the party needed to bring him in as the Economics Minister....which Merkel more or less laughed over that suggestion.
So the magazine Focus picked up this whole discussion, and their political writer.....Rainer Zitelmann....discusses this weird scenario over Merz and the election. Zitelmann writes out this scripted idea that Merz really isn't going to get any path ahead in the CDU....not as the Chancellor candidate or as a minister. The general public sees Merz as a strong character for the economic woes that Covid-19 has brought to Germany's doorstep.
The scenario? Have Merz quit the CDU Party....walk across the room to the FDP Party, and be a co-chairman of their leadership.....then run as the Chancellor candidate for the FDP.
First, how rare is that people change parties in Germany? It just never happens. You might have one or two people per decade who exit a party and enter a second party. Normally, they aren't big-names.
Second, for public attention.....just how well does Merz debate and would there be any gained points for the FDP? If you look at the group now assembled (considering the CDU, Greens, SPD, etc)....Merz holds a 5-star edge when talking about the economy and rebuilding commerce.
Presently, the FDP is shown in the polls at the 8-percent level. With Merz as their candidate? It's only wild speculation on my part, but I think they could dislodge another 10 points off the CDU. I would suggest they'd come fairly close to 18-percent on the national voting in September.
What this does? For the CDU to lose ten points....means they come down a notch, and it's now possible that the Greens win the election (if their current trend holds).
The possibility that the Merz ticket could take votes off the AfD Party and the SPD folks? Maybe there's another five points from these two as well....which would put them near 23-percent. In this scenario of mine, the Greens would be kinda stuck....either they partner with a highly weakened CDU Party, or with the FDP folks.
So the question here goes to the feelings of Merz....would he dump his political party? It's totally an unknown.
On the German speculation scale....what Zitelmann lays out...is probably one of the wildest ideas of the past twenty years in terms of politics.
No comments:
Post a Comment