If you look at polling presently, for the three state elections (the Pfalz and Baden-Wurttemberg for 15 March, and Saxony-Anhalt for 6 June)....it looks this way for the parties.
For the Pfalz, the SPD ought to win with a mid-30s number, followed by the CDU with a low-30s number. The AfD? Near 12 percent. The Greens and FDP will follow at the end with marginally 5-percent each. The coalition deal? The SPD ought to get something rigged with the CDU as a junior partner. No shockers here.
For Baden-Wurttemberg? The Greens ought to get near 30-percent for a win. The CDU will follow with some high 20's number. The AfD will corner around 15-percent of the vote, with the SPD a couple of points behind them. The FDP, near 7-to-8 percent. Again, no real shocker.
So we get to the Saxony-Anhalt race. The CDU ought to win, with near 30-percent, with the AfD near the mid-20s, and in third place....the Linke Party with near 16-percent. The SPD does lousy with 10-percent, and the Greens near 8-percent. No real mention of the FDP. If there is a shocker, its that the AfD will do very well in the state and come near a win.
The numbers? All based off a polling situation for SWR (public TV for the SW part of Germany).
If all three occur as predicted.....there's not a lot to get the news media hyped-up or worried over serious changes for the September national election. If the Greens lost in Baden-Wurttemberg (2nd place finish), or the AfD won the Saxony-Anhalt race (first place).....then you'd see some worried folks for Septembers race.
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