Are We Back In An Iron-Curtain Era?

 In the past ten days, I've read this suggestion from a Russian, a German, and an American.

So, I sat the past day or so....thinking over this.

Officially on the books....the Iron Curtain fell in the 1989/1990 period, when the Berlin wall came down.  Officially with the Air Force (I remember the day).....we were all given 'Cold War' medals in 1998 (no one could explain the eight-years of time difference....just that here's a medal for just standing around in this period of time).

In the Iron-Curtin era.....Soviets didn't really travel to the west, and Americans getting to Russia (for these stupid supervised tours) was a mess.

Russians read only propaganda news.  The trust in what they heard or read....was dismal....with most admitting they just didn't follow news anymore.  To some degree, even today....some Russians will just grin and admit they don't follow news, period.

What would happen in a modern Iron-Curtain era?  I would suggest five key things:

1.  Western items (from wines and cars, to technology items and aircraft) aren't going to be possible.  The substitute?  Well...mostly all Chinese-or-Belarus made.

2.  A lot of Russians went to Germany, France or Sweden for their cars.  The companies in Europe aren't allowing the mechanics to hook to the repair database or procure authentic parts.  Other than importing in a bunch of Chinese-made cars, I'm not sure where this whole landscape will drift into.

3.  The tourism situation, with hotels, airlines and tourist 'magnets'?  They are in a spiral at the moment.

4.  Qualified and educated people (like IT folks, chemists, engineers, etc)?  They aren't going to be thrilled over the control or the future prospects.....so I expect a fair number to pursue leaving Russia in 2022 and the future.

5.  Social networks will completely disappear around the globe with Russian content, while Russian networks will be solely approved Russian content.  

The chief problem, if you sit and think about where things have gone for 30 years.....people got used to a lot of westernized things. Some even traveled to France, Spain or Greece.....enjoying a lifestyle that was fairly limited prior to 1990.

There has to be a new term for this Iron-Curtain reference.  

As for the next decade?  I would suggest that several million Russians will find an exit door, and just leave Russia by 2030.  I don't want to say it's the smart guys....but these will be people who can shuffle their resume around and have value in the international market.

I also think that Putin's era will end, and we end up seeing at least two individuals do a 'tap-dance', and each find support dwindling.

The GDP?  They will end being somewhere down on the list.....maybe twenty to thirty spots from the top, and business analysts will grumble that the numbers presented....don't make much sense.  

Don't worry....eventually this dark era will end, and things will improve.  It's just that it might be 2050 before we see that bright future.