Thursday, January 18, 2024

The Petite Threat

 Over the past three months, there's just been a lot of chatter across Europe (and the US) over the 'magnificent' threat that Russia (really just Putin) poses.   'Leaks' are now almost a daily thing.....this week, some Swedish 'leak' came to portray the great evil facing Sweden....with Putin's army.

From day one of the Ukraine-Russia war....I've sat and watched various videos of combat action....probably over 700 hours worth.  I've come to note four obvious things:

1.  On training and preparation for combat....there's no doubt that Russia has done a 1-star job, and set a bunch of Russian men on a short-path to doom and death.  It does make me ponder....all that hyped-up stuff of the 1980s/1990s....was all like this and full-up BS?

2.  In the beginning off the war, you saw a lot of 10-to-20 year old military hardware for the Russians.  About 12 months into the war....the video scene changed, and you began to see more 30-to-40 year old military hardware (T-72s for the most part).  Depot guys were probably pretty busy in pulling the retired tanks out and preparing them.

About six months ago, I noticed two heavily damaged Russian T-62 tanks....which would have been produced throughout the 1960s.  Offering protection?  Well....not that much against anti-tank weapons designed for the modern era.

3.  About once a month, you see some wheeling and dealing by Russian officials....trying to get hardware from China or North Korea or Iran.  It just begs the question....can't they produce anything on their own?  The answer?  If you said you wanted 3,000 tanks....I doubt that the Russian system could go into a production cycle and have the final tank produced....by year fifteen.     

4.  Finally....to the issue....as each month passed and nothing much accomplished....are there any lessons learned for the Russian military?  You just don't get much of an impression.  It's like a bunch of fake generals walked around and just looked good in uniform.  

So I'm going to say the obvious thing....the Russians have weakened themselves to the point that they can't really threaten Europe for the next couple of decades.  

I doubt that Putin will admit this.

All this European leak-crap?  Just BS?  Yeah.  Maybe if they'd never invaded the Ukraine, and still had the modern era equipment....the threat would be realistic.  

No comments: