Germany's military growth policy is often referred to as the "Zeitenwende" (turning point in security policy). So this policy...under the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition....emphasizes transforming the Bundeswehr (German Army) into a more capable, ready, and "kriegstüchtig" (war-capable) force.
If you asked me....all related to the Ukraine-Russia war? Yeah....there's no doubt about that.
This strategy involves substantial increases in defense spending to exceed the NATO 2-percent GDP target, modernizing equipment, expanding personnel, enhancing procurement efficiency, and strengthening alliances amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The policy is supported by a March 2025 constitutional amendment allowing unlimited debt financing (basically what the old coalition had a problem with) for defense above 1-percent of GDP, along with a €500 billion extrabudgetary special fund (Sondervermögen) for defense and infrastructure.
A separate €100 billion special defense fund (established earlier) will provide €77 billion from 2025–2027 before being exhausted by the end of 2027, after which borrowing under the debt exemption will sustain growth.
Personnel numbers? Active duty force currently at around 180,000....they plan by 2030 to have 203,000. By 2035...the plan goes to 260,000.
Realistic?
Overall support for the recruitment/draft with Germans in general? Marginally at 53-percent approving.
Germans from ages 16-to-29 supporting the program (from a mid-2025 poll)....near 41-percent supporting (I should note from this poll....young males are near 45-percent in support....while 38-percent of young women support it).
The Army did a poll in 2025....if Germany were attacked....would you (youth) defend Germany? Again...ages....16-to-29. This time....45-percent of young males said YES....22-percent of young ladies said yes. A majority of both....said no to defending the homeland.
My humble thoughts? The 'talk' and effort in 2026 to recruit volunteers will marginally work. By summer of 2027....the coalition will have to admit that 2026 and 2027 numbers for the volunteer army won't meet the goal. As they (CDU-CSU-SPD) try to maneuver toward a draft.....I expect this to be a breaking point, and likely by early 2028 to collapse the coalition (early election). I'll also say that half of the SPD-voting crowd won't support the draft.
The question I would pose....looking at new tech gear from the Ukraine-Russia war....do you really need more troops, or a bold look at AI, unmanned drones, ultra-smart warfare?
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