In the early 1990s....I was giving this a 80-percent chance of happening....where most all of US forces in Europe would exit. This NATO versus Warsaw Pact....was dissolving. But I was wrong.
By the 2005 era....I was giving it a 10-percent chance of happening....very unlikely.
Here in 2026....I'm giving it a 99-percent chance of happening. The evolution will involve 'hate-Trump' chatter, keeping Russia alive by buying their oil/natural gas after the war ends, and some weird EU creation of NATO-plus-up with Ukraine as a active member-player.
The comical side of this evolution? Well...Europe has a arsenal of US-designed weapons. So they need to replace them....with limited to marginal funding available. To make this successful....taxes need to escalate...meaning public funds get more troublesome.
US commerce has to be punished in some way.....with several hundred thousand Europeans in such jobs....getting laid-off. Explaining this will take care of a number of political parties....triggering them to be more punished than usual
All of this acceptable to all members of the EU? I don't really buy into that....there's probably five or six European states which aren't going to buy into the 'path' designed. Poland, Hungary and Czech might go against the path....so might Italy.
All happening in 2026? No....but it'll be like the 1966 event in France, where the exit plan is drafted and finalized. I would imagine somewhere between 2027 and 2028....this 'end' will occur.
Financial chaos to occur? Yeah, but the more things change....the more they stay the same.
It's not the end of the world scenario....it's just a new evolution.
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Well, it would cripple the US's ability to project power and police the seas, and in that case, say goodbye to global supply chains and technological developments. If NATO dissolves the USA out, then they'd need to find another batch of countries to start building the infrastructure to keep the ships at see throughout the world, and not just in their backyard. Then all of a sudden the military is no longer excursion capable. If you have to airlift someone all the way back to the US from a middle east trouble spot, then there's going to be a lot more deaths in combat.
This 1950s 'idea' of the US being the world's policeman....needed evolution badly....so maybe this script 'show' needs to end. The downsizing of the US military...already discussed by Eisenhower and various leaders over the decades....maybe it's time that a quarter of the US budget for the Pentagon get gutted. As for the threat of the Soviet Union/Russia? Well...I see it mostly now carved up as a midget-on-steroids. This China-Taiwan threat is the only real threat left.
A final word....if you view UK politics....the balance is shifted and the Muslim influence is now set. They will control the isle within a decade. On the continent, at least two nations within the EU will be a Islamic domination situation....with one German state (land) with a heavy influence (NRW) by 2035. I can even suggest such a domination already influencing the state of Minnesota presently.
Trying to find path to the past 70 years of stability...is simply requiring a lot of patience and acceptance. But the path to change is the most likely scenario developing.
Care to take a bet on the UK muslim control within a decade? How much?
I asked Grok/AI to assemble the data....he says the Islamic birthrate is 2.3...besting the non-I rate by .9. If you take that, plus the ineffective nature of border-control, and the unlikely odds of Reform changing anything....I'd say you have a 20-year calendar unfolding. 2025 numbers (again by Grok) suggest around 90,000 arrivals....with no change/impact occurring.
Other odd factor....fair number of Brits are looking at exiting the UK. Looking and actually carrying a exit out....two different topics. Germans have this problem going on (thinking of a exit).
As divided as Brits are....having a new party arrive with pro-Iran leanings....would have an impact.
Yes, all fine, but do you trust this analysis enough to bet on it? If so, how much?
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