Civey (the polling organization) has wrapped up a Saxony state poll (looking at how Germans will vote in the fall).
I'd rate the Civey organization on a high scale. In this poll....they actually talked to 3,000 residents of the state.
Polling currently? AfD (far-right) has support of around 37-percent of the public. 2nd place is the CDU Party (right-of-center) with 33-percent. After that....it is a serious drop fo 3rd place (Linke Party at 7-percent).
It is odd....Civey avoided the BWS Party (I would imagine if you listed them....they'd be at the 10-percent point).
So, this topic came up in the AM. Under the assumption that the AfD Party would 'win'.....they have to form a gov't and most CDU, SPD and Green Party folks think it's impossible.....no party would touch/agree with AfD.
Well....the chatter goes to this idea....in Saxony....some fringe element of the CDU membership says they have no problem and will partner up.
What scenario plays out? After the election and announced ranking....AfD (if the winner) would engage in talks to form a coalition gov't. The national level of the CDU believe it's a five-minute discussion....to which 'NO' would quickly come up. If some elements say....lets have a internal CDU Saxony-only membership vote....I would imagine just over 50-percent of the membership would vote to continue talks, and the national level of the CDU (sitting in Berlin) would go into a massive fit.
In a matter of days, this fringe group might work out a AfD-CDU agreement.
Earthquake situation? Well....three weeks after this election, there's a state election in Brandenburg. Same scenario could follow. Shortly after that....the 3rd state election (Thuringia) would occur....possibly the same situation.
The SPD and Greens would run around the country....all freaked out and announcing how Nazi-like the CDU has become.
This might make sense why the two new parties (out of thin air) have interested some people, and might take voters away from the AfD in the end.
2 comments:
Well, let's be honest, they're both all about short term thinking, austerity, and giving as much public money away to their donors as possible - so it should be a tight fit.
Back in the Merkel era when the CDU 'owned' the Finance Minister position...he'd give an occasional lecture that austerity never achieved the desired effect (it's hard to say that's factual or just general wisdom).
If you asked working-class Germans presently...most are in some frugal state of mind, cutting back on eating out...taking lesser-cost vacations, and thinking inflation will eventually return to a norm situation. Practical spending equals austerity (in some weird fashion). I get this lecture from the German wife weekly now.
Presently, to make all these oddball programs with energy, agriculture, welfare, E-cars and cheap railway tickets work....the tax revenue program is locked into some turbo fashion. If you fail any of these special gift-programs....the 'players' get hostile. It's hard to see any political groups resolving the present mess.
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