Over the past couple of months, if you view Twitter commentary, German news journalists, and public forum chatter....some folks are convinced that Trump has a chance of returning to office in 2025, and that the US position staked out in NATO will evolve in a harsh way.
General talk? It goes to four essential points:
1. Trump would task Germany to spend the mandatory 2-percent of GDP, and they say they can't afford it.
2. Trump says a lot of this Russia-chatter goes back to NATO expansion and Russian thinking (at least falsely) that their border is threatened.
3. Recruitment for the US Army, Navy and Air Force is crap, and is continually lessening the practical numbers of units.
4. Finally, some perception by the Trump-crew that the EU ought to do their job....instead of US tax-payers.
Lets be honest here....the Cold War that ended in the 1990s....should have brought a review by the Clinton Administration and some time-line should have been created for a massive draw-down by the US. There was a marginal cut, but a fair amount of assets remained past 1999.
If the US did pull out of Germany? It amounts (currently) to around 35,000 personnel. My humble belief is that some could end up being based in Poland (depending on which party leads Poland at the time), and the rest brought back to the US. This drawdown done in quick fashion? It probably would be complete by 2028 (humble view).
Making some political groups in Germany happy? That's the odd perception I get. Various folks from the SPD, Green and Linke Parties...would fight hard to avoid showing their glee, but speak happily over the end.
Same story in Italy, I suspect.
Some 'end-of-the-world' chatter? I would question how one would get that disturbed. More or less....Russia has proven they marginally can handle a Ukraine-force, and based off manpower losses, and hardware blown-up.....it will probably take several decades before the Russian military can ever recover.
If anything....Putin might be disturbed more than anyone else....not being taken as a real threat.
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