If you go around Europe right now (outside of Germany), you will find e-scooters now the 'rage'.....with kids and adults on them. In Barcelona, I probably observed at least two-hundred people per day....on the streets and the sidewalks.
Germany? Well....it's been slow coming because various cities have stood in the way....often making up rules on their own, without state or federal guidance.
The e-scooters, if you haven't paid attention....can actually get up to 100 kph (60 mph), if you buy the bulked-up type with the electrical motor on each wheel. The average one will do around 30 kph (18 mph), and can be bought for around 200 Euro.
People will tell you that they are environmentally friendly, but another group will vouch that they represent a serious threat to safety (both to the driver, and to pedestrians).
There's going to be a federal discussion tomorrow (Tuesday) with the Transport Committee of the Federal Council. Some folks think that this might open the door for federal regulation and finally give the cities some kind of federal guidance.
Some comments have been said that kids as young as 12....would be allowed to drive the slower bikes (the 12 kph type). But there's already a regulation existing (for years) that says a license would be necessary for a motorized vehicle, and that age limits you to 15 years old.
There's also some hype that folks think a class of some type.....ought to be mandated. But then the question comes around to whether you'd make a person on a bicycle, or a non-motor situation (push cart, horse wagon, wheelbarrow, etc).
This is one of those odd things about Germans. They always reach a stage where they believe regulation might be necessary, and it's discussed to the ninth-degree, and you end up with a lot of extra paperwork, to perform some type of work that a nine-year-old kid could do.
Monday, April 29, 2019
Railway Story
This morning, I had to go with the wife over to her job in Mainz, and leave the car there. My return 'journey'?
Well, it was designed to be this simple railway and bus trip (consuming around 70 minutes) to return to the house.
There in Mainz, I came to discover a number of railway issues....the type that Germans go into bitter detail about. Basically from the early hours of the morning, until after lunch.....there's not a single train running from Mainz to Wiesbaden (in a normal six-hour period, there would be four an hour, and even six an hour in the rush hour). Cancelled.....maintenance work that came out of nowhere, in a sudden fashion.
The remedy? I walked with the herd (probably 300 to 400 people) to the bus stand, waiting for at least two buses to pick up folks, and then finally rode a completely filled bus (150-plus passengers).
But this wasn't the only problem. After reviewing the board in the center hall....for the next twelve trains going 'somewhere' (anywhere)....every single one of them was running 10 to 30 minutes behind schedule. Some in fact....were in the process of being cancelled (like the Wiesbaden trains).
This is the continual negativity about the German railway system. I think it probably hit some peak around the 1990s in terms of limited issues and max passengers. Most everyone now...who has a plan to use the German railway system to get from home to work, and back.....now has a fair amount of negativity.
Fixing, resolving or improving this? How? Some of the political dimwits are suggesting to increase the passenger load by 30 to 50 percent, and get more people out of their cars. I personally can't see adding another ten trains in the rush-hour for Mainz or Wiesbaden. The idea of doubling up the cars? Maybe, but there's a limit to that idea. The same is virtually true for Frankfurt....bulking it up is physically impossible at this point, to handle another 25-percent of passenger numbers.
How long did I waste on this unplanned emergency? I added roughly 150 minutes onto my short trip.
Well, it was designed to be this simple railway and bus trip (consuming around 70 minutes) to return to the house.
There in Mainz, I came to discover a number of railway issues....the type that Germans go into bitter detail about. Basically from the early hours of the morning, until after lunch.....there's not a single train running from Mainz to Wiesbaden (in a normal six-hour period, there would be four an hour, and even six an hour in the rush hour). Cancelled.....maintenance work that came out of nowhere, in a sudden fashion.
The remedy? I walked with the herd (probably 300 to 400 people) to the bus stand, waiting for at least two buses to pick up folks, and then finally rode a completely filled bus (150-plus passengers).
But this wasn't the only problem. After reviewing the board in the center hall....for the next twelve trains going 'somewhere' (anywhere)....every single one of them was running 10 to 30 minutes behind schedule. Some in fact....were in the process of being cancelled (like the Wiesbaden trains).
This is the continual negativity about the German railway system. I think it probably hit some peak around the 1990s in terms of limited issues and max passengers. Most everyone now...who has a plan to use the German railway system to get from home to work, and back.....now has a fair amount of negativity.
Fixing, resolving or improving this? How? Some of the political dimwits are suggesting to increase the passenger load by 30 to 50 percent, and get more people out of their cars. I personally can't see adding another ten trains in the rush-hour for Mainz or Wiesbaden. The idea of doubling up the cars? Maybe, but there's a limit to that idea. The same is virtually true for Frankfurt....bulking it up is physically impossible at this point, to handle another 25-percent of passenger numbers.
How long did I waste on this unplanned emergency? I added roughly 150 minutes onto my short trip.
Gunfire Story
Shoot-outs, without the cops involved, are just awful rare in Germany.
But on Saturday morning (before the sun rose)....shots were fired in Russelsheim (a 20 minute drive from Wiesbaden). From what the cops say....somewhere in the mid-town area....a 33-year old guy was somewhat wounded by one of the bullets.
From what they've pieced together....two families were having a meeting (men and juvenile 'lads'). Fourteen individuals....at least one as young as 13 years old. Some argument arose, and things got out of control. From the 14 folks originally arrested....all have been released.
This morning, the cops are going with one single accused guy, with attempted murder charges.
A crime clan situation? The authorities are avoiding the topic but it leaves you wondering how the argument started up.
But on Saturday morning (before the sun rose)....shots were fired in Russelsheim (a 20 minute drive from Wiesbaden). From what the cops say....somewhere in the mid-town area....a 33-year old guy was somewhat wounded by one of the bullets.
From what they've pieced together....two families were having a meeting (men and juvenile 'lads'). Fourteen individuals....at least one as young as 13 years old. Some argument arose, and things got out of control. From the 14 folks originally arrested....all have been released.
This morning, the cops are going with one single accused guy, with attempted murder charges.
A crime clan situation? The authorities are avoiding the topic but it leaves you wondering how the argument started up.
Farm Story
I sat through a short report yesterday from public TV news in Germany, and they'd gone to review data collected by a German university. So they laid out this story....that various politicians (from both the right-of-center CDU and the left-of-center SPD parties) are taking particular 'sides' when it comes to farm production and agricultural sustainability. In simple terms, they are sticking with the farmers, the industrial agricultural folks, the ag associations, and the food industry.
This trend (probably going on for more than 20 years)....centers on the 'massive' use of fertilization of farmland, with both liquid manure and standard fertilizer. Chief reason?
This goes to a business model that probably has been around for several decades. You need X-number of acres producing feed, which transitions over to livestock or swine production. Feed usages equals production, and that motivates profitability.
But this odd feature fell into place as time went by.....all these nitrates (either via manure or fertilizer)....got down into the water supply. Yep, and that bulks up after a while.
The clean-water agenda folks? Well...they've been talking about this problem and they want regulations. The political folks? Those supporting the various farmers, and food industry folks....have come to realize the impact of the regulations.
If you cut back on manure-spray and the fertilizer....say by half....then the cattle and pork production models don't work, and the farm diminishes on profits, and production. In simple terms, the German farm landscape would likely have a massive cutback. No one talks numbers, but you'd have to anticipate a loss of twenty-percent easily.
If you built your entire farm to a certain model, and profitability.....and it failed? That's the curious thing that the pro-water folks have avoided discussing.
If the regulation does come? My humble guess is that you'd see some farms intensely involved in cattle/pork production....just give up. Beef and pork production coming more from outside of Germany? Yes. Your prices would go upward. What happens to the farmers who fall because of the regulations? That might be worth asking.
You can tell....something is coming. If not in 2019, then in 2020, and it'll pose a serious change to the German farming community.
This trend (probably going on for more than 20 years)....centers on the 'massive' use of fertilization of farmland, with both liquid manure and standard fertilizer. Chief reason?
This goes to a business model that probably has been around for several decades. You need X-number of acres producing feed, which transitions over to livestock or swine production. Feed usages equals production, and that motivates profitability.
But this odd feature fell into place as time went by.....all these nitrates (either via manure or fertilizer)....got down into the water supply. Yep, and that bulks up after a while.
The clean-water agenda folks? Well...they've been talking about this problem and they want regulations. The political folks? Those supporting the various farmers, and food industry folks....have come to realize the impact of the regulations.
If you cut back on manure-spray and the fertilizer....say by half....then the cattle and pork production models don't work, and the farm diminishes on profits, and production. In simple terms, the German farm landscape would likely have a massive cutback. No one talks numbers, but you'd have to anticipate a loss of twenty-percent easily.
If you built your entire farm to a certain model, and profitability.....and it failed? That's the curious thing that the pro-water folks have avoided discussing.
If the regulation does come? My humble guess is that you'd see some farms intensely involved in cattle/pork production....just give up. Beef and pork production coming more from outside of Germany? Yes. Your prices would go upward. What happens to the farmers who fall because of the regulations? That might be worth asking.
You can tell....something is coming. If not in 2019, then in 2020, and it'll pose a serious change to the German farming community.
Aftermath in Spain
Results of this Spain election in plain English? You can take home five things:
1. The People's Party (right-of-center) lost a fair number of seats in the national congress (69 lost). They did manage to take 17-percent of the national vote. If there was a 'big loser'....they were it.
2. The big gainer was the Socialists Worker's Party (29-percent of the vote). But their issue is that they didn't get a majority and will have to combine with at least one partner, to run the government.
3. The VOX Party? The far-right group which was invented in the last five years? They shocked a lot of people taking 10-percent of the vote.
4. The Pro-Catalonia Party? They did take four-percent of the voting (mostly ALL from Catalonia), and will get 15 seats in this next congress.
5. You end up in a coalition, and the Socialist Worker's Party will have to offer up something on the plate to make the partner (or partners) happy. If any situation arises, which adds conflict to the partnership....then this will fade, and another election will have to occur. All this election did was reshuffle the cards, and put a weakened situation back into play with fresh faces.
1. The People's Party (right-of-center) lost a fair number of seats in the national congress (69 lost). They did manage to take 17-percent of the national vote. If there was a 'big loser'....they were it.
2. The big gainer was the Socialists Worker's Party (29-percent of the vote). But their issue is that they didn't get a majority and will have to combine with at least one partner, to run the government.
3. The VOX Party? The far-right group which was invented in the last five years? They shocked a lot of people taking 10-percent of the vote.
4. The Pro-Catalonia Party? They did take four-percent of the voting (mostly ALL from Catalonia), and will get 15 seats in this next congress.
5. You end up in a coalition, and the Socialist Worker's Party will have to offer up something on the plate to make the partner (or partners) happy. If any situation arises, which adds conflict to the partnership....then this will fade, and another election will have to occur. All this election did was reshuffle the cards, and put a weakened situation back into play with fresh faces.
A PR Story
Public TV in Germany did a short piece over the weekend which caught my attention. If you go around and privately talk to people.....crime and the threat of terrorism....rank near the top of people's priorities.
Yet the cops and authorities will openly (across all sixteen states of Germany) show the numbers, and they indicate that most all crime has dropped over the past five years. It doesn't matter if you talk about home break-in's, car theft, or assault.
So to take on the public perception, the cops have taken to measures to just 'reassure' the public. That means patrols take place in public places, with cops walking around (not in cars). It means that places that have drug trafficking....will see a raid occasionally to demonstrate a presence. All of this is to convince the public that there really isn't a big problem with crime.
The general issue I see....if you are over the age of fifty and experienced life in either East or West Germany in the 1970s/1980s....you have a pretty direct view of 'safety' and life in unified Germany of today doesn't match up. Some of this has to do with a society that was mostly all Germans. Some of this has involve ramped-up drug use. Some of this centers on juvenile bad behavior that didn't exist in the 70s/80s (finding 15 year old kids around fest areas today in an extremely drunken state isn't shocking anymore).
Whether or not this PR attempt works....is the real question mark. The numbers say that Germany is safer than it was a decade ago.
Yet the cops and authorities will openly (across all sixteen states of Germany) show the numbers, and they indicate that most all crime has dropped over the past five years. It doesn't matter if you talk about home break-in's, car theft, or assault.
So to take on the public perception, the cops have taken to measures to just 'reassure' the public. That means patrols take place in public places, with cops walking around (not in cars). It means that places that have drug trafficking....will see a raid occasionally to demonstrate a presence. All of this is to convince the public that there really isn't a big problem with crime.
The general issue I see....if you are over the age of fifty and experienced life in either East or West Germany in the 1970s/1980s....you have a pretty direct view of 'safety' and life in unified Germany of today doesn't match up. Some of this has to do with a society that was mostly all Germans. Some of this has involve ramped-up drug use. Some of this centers on juvenile bad behavior that didn't exist in the 70s/80s (finding 15 year old kids around fest areas today in an extremely drunken state isn't shocking anymore).
Whether or not this PR attempt works....is the real question mark. The numbers say that Germany is safer than it was a decade ago.
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Spelling in the News
I noticed this got brought up in the German news this morning....that a major study came out from the Institute for Quality Development in Education (IQB)....that one out of every five German 4th-graders....can't meet the minimum standards of spelling.
This topic tends to get brought up occasionally by German teachers, and makes it into the public forums that discuss 'kid-woes'. Teachers? They are strongly suggesting that use of social media, text messages (WhatsApp), and use of abbreviated words now being widely accepted by kids. Even attempts to correct the kids at this young age, have fallen upon apart.
What's all of this mean? At some point, in the next decade....university professors will call 'foul', and just start flunking university students for poor grammar and poor spelling habits (while the teachers in grade school just allowed the kids to progress). Some national crisis will be invented out of this, and tons of money have to be poured in, with results taking at least another decade to show results.
Everyone will start to blame the internet, social media, and just plain poor teaching habits.
This topic tends to get brought up occasionally by German teachers, and makes it into the public forums that discuss 'kid-woes'. Teachers? They are strongly suggesting that use of social media, text messages (WhatsApp), and use of abbreviated words now being widely accepted by kids. Even attempts to correct the kids at this young age, have fallen upon apart.
What's all of this mean? At some point, in the next decade....university professors will call 'foul', and just start flunking university students for poor grammar and poor spelling habits (while the teachers in grade school just allowed the kids to progress). Some national crisis will be invented out of this, and tons of money have to be poured in, with results taking at least another decade to show results.
Everyone will start to blame the internet, social media, and just plain poor teaching habits.
The Approaching Free Gift Strategy
I sat and watched a brief news piece today which chatted over the impending (probably two to three years away) CO2 tax.
For several years, the EU had stood opposing the idea of a CO2 tax. In the past couple of months....that opposition has wrapped up. So what's going to happen is a EU-wide CO2 tax, which will arrive for cars/truck/buses/motorcycles, heating/cooling of homes/apartments/hotels, and agricultural production. The numbers? Yet to be figured out and that fact might create this long discussion (maybe leading to fours years of research and discussion).
It basically means that some tax idea will be created to create this massive taxation funnel. So you might sit there and get a registration form for your yearly motorcycle tag, and here's a 19-Euro CO2 tax. Then you'd get a airline ticket from Frankfurt to Thailand, with a 72-Euro CO2 tax attached. Then you'd go to the grocery store and find that the bottom of the receipt includes a 4.50-Euro CO2 tax in the mix. Then you'd go and find the landlord talking over your heating bill, and the 98-Euro CO2 tax for your yearly fee. Then you'd call up your beer distributor company....to order the half-pallet of beer for your birthday party, and the CO2 tax is figured in and comes to around 16-Euro.
By the time the year ends, you've contributed around 500 Euro into this pot. Those folks with the big houses, the four BMWs in the garage, taking the three international trips a year.....will have contributed at least 2,000 to 10,000 Euro.
Even the farmer with wheat production, and various pieces of equipment he has to operate....will be paying this CO2 tax.
So this money rolling into a big pot....into the billions. What becomes of that? Well, that's the funny part of this discussion.
The Finance Minister (from the SPD Party) has said that it should be redistributed back out to public programs ('gifts', we could say). There might be an opera hall or two, but a lot of this would be city park money, welfare funding, educational funding, etc. The rich who would use a hefty amount of money? They would be throwing a fair sum of CO2 cash into this pot and get little-to-nothing in return.
One might go and assume that if you did this across the EU, there would be nowhere to escape to (to leave Germany and relocate into Czech or Hungary). But this brings up the other issue....while a lot of Germans might be willing to just accept this part of life, that feeling isn't shared in countries like Greece or Italy. One might assume that even if the CO2 tax is voted into acceptance....the first five to ten years will be half or even a quarter of what the Germans are anticipating. So that 'Robin Hood' bandit redistribution idea would be fairly limited in benefiting people.
I should note as well....you might see several hundred thousand people of 'wealth' (CO2 creators)....who just come to realize the true impact on their finances, and leave the EU.
So if people are dumping this into another taxation pot....what's this add up to when you look at general salaries, general income taxes, pensions, medical cost, property taxes, car taxes, sales taxes, etc? That's the unknown. My guess is that for the common working-class guy, it probably can't go above two-percent of his total income for the year. And in some fashion.....the return of distribution has to be really benefiting people.
The possibility of zero CO2 taxes upon a guy? The guy living under the bridge, will still have to buy food somewhere unless he has a personal garden.
The driving tool for free train tickets? Yes, if you haven't figured that part out.....this is probably one of the top ten things will come out of the CO2 deal. Money for affordable housing seizures in Berlin? More than likely. Paved bicycle trails throughout Germany? Yes, it'll come. Distribution via EU 'gifts'? Very likely.
But then you come to general wealth of people living in non-EU countries (like the US, Canada, Australia, etc)....they will make more take-home pay, unless some public acceptance comes around to CO2 taxes as well. Selling this in the US? No....I have my doubts that you can convince the public to buy into this idea.
So the cost of doing business....making things to sell outside of the EU....and tourism, will all suffer to some degree, but everyone will rave about the free gift strategy.
For several years, the EU had stood opposing the idea of a CO2 tax. In the past couple of months....that opposition has wrapped up. So what's going to happen is a EU-wide CO2 tax, which will arrive for cars/truck/buses/motorcycles, heating/cooling of homes/apartments/hotels, and agricultural production. The numbers? Yet to be figured out and that fact might create this long discussion (maybe leading to fours years of research and discussion).
It basically means that some tax idea will be created to create this massive taxation funnel. So you might sit there and get a registration form for your yearly motorcycle tag, and here's a 19-Euro CO2 tax. Then you'd get a airline ticket from Frankfurt to Thailand, with a 72-Euro CO2 tax attached. Then you'd go to the grocery store and find that the bottom of the receipt includes a 4.50-Euro CO2 tax in the mix. Then you'd go and find the landlord talking over your heating bill, and the 98-Euro CO2 tax for your yearly fee. Then you'd call up your beer distributor company....to order the half-pallet of beer for your birthday party, and the CO2 tax is figured in and comes to around 16-Euro.
By the time the year ends, you've contributed around 500 Euro into this pot. Those folks with the big houses, the four BMWs in the garage, taking the three international trips a year.....will have contributed at least 2,000 to 10,000 Euro.
Even the farmer with wheat production, and various pieces of equipment he has to operate....will be paying this CO2 tax.
So this money rolling into a big pot....into the billions. What becomes of that? Well, that's the funny part of this discussion.
The Finance Minister (from the SPD Party) has said that it should be redistributed back out to public programs ('gifts', we could say). There might be an opera hall or two, but a lot of this would be city park money, welfare funding, educational funding, etc. The rich who would use a hefty amount of money? They would be throwing a fair sum of CO2 cash into this pot and get little-to-nothing in return.
One might go and assume that if you did this across the EU, there would be nowhere to escape to (to leave Germany and relocate into Czech or Hungary). But this brings up the other issue....while a lot of Germans might be willing to just accept this part of life, that feeling isn't shared in countries like Greece or Italy. One might assume that even if the CO2 tax is voted into acceptance....the first five to ten years will be half or even a quarter of what the Germans are anticipating. So that 'Robin Hood' bandit redistribution idea would be fairly limited in benefiting people.
I should note as well....you might see several hundred thousand people of 'wealth' (CO2 creators)....who just come to realize the true impact on their finances, and leave the EU.
So if people are dumping this into another taxation pot....what's this add up to when you look at general salaries, general income taxes, pensions, medical cost, property taxes, car taxes, sales taxes, etc? That's the unknown. My guess is that for the common working-class guy, it probably can't go above two-percent of his total income for the year. And in some fashion.....the return of distribution has to be really benefiting people.
The possibility of zero CO2 taxes upon a guy? The guy living under the bridge, will still have to buy food somewhere unless he has a personal garden.
The driving tool for free train tickets? Yes, if you haven't figured that part out.....this is probably one of the top ten things will come out of the CO2 deal. Money for affordable housing seizures in Berlin? More than likely. Paved bicycle trails throughout Germany? Yes, it'll come. Distribution via EU 'gifts'? Very likely.
But then you come to general wealth of people living in non-EU countries (like the US, Canada, Australia, etc)....they will make more take-home pay, unless some public acceptance comes around to CO2 taxes as well. Selling this in the US? No....I have my doubts that you can convince the public to buy into this idea.
So the cost of doing business....making things to sell outside of the EU....and tourism, will all suffer to some degree, but everyone will rave about the free gift strategy.
Circus Poster I Saw
Well, times have changed, and I noted this picture in the past month....'Circus of Horrors'.
This company figured up the newest gimmick....have zombie-like guys (used to be clowns), and try to have teenagers show up (they'd never attend)....to get some scare act for the general public.
The odds of grandma taking seven-year-old Sebastian or Antone off to a show like this? Forget it.
Hard to say if this idea will be long, or it develops into the next circus trend in Germany.
What Does 'Basic Language' Skills Really Mean?
Well....Germans have their opinion on this and it varies. However, the only opinion that matters is the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
Their basic description here is that you need to be versed enough, to understand simple German sentences....introduce yourself in a group....go out into a grocery store and shop....take and answer basic questions...ask directions (even if you have a smart-phone with a GPS map showing you the way), and fill in bureaucratic forms.
So you look over the list I just gave you, and it begs questions.
First, the bureaucratic forms. When the Auslander (Foreigner) office hands you the visa application form.....it's roughly a dozen pages asking you various detailed information. Some is useful (I admit)....some is worthless, (asking me about my relatives, who aren't coming or part incoming situation) it's is a waste of effort. But you have to be looking at the precise way they ask the question, and give only what they need. Turning the dozen-page application into a thirty-page 'answer' would be the wrong effort on your part.
Second, even my German wife would admit that shopping at some local German grocery requires tons of extra skills that BAMF never discusses or talks about in public. She would lecture me for hours and hours, about how to buy things only on sale, or how to avoid these certain products because they are inferior, or how product X should only be brought in this particular season. If I used my wife's guidance, it'd amount to a 700-page book on shopping, and Syrians would probably run out of the room in a panic because of the massive amount of guidance involved.
Third, on asking and getting directions. Germans would readily admit...in the 1960s to the 1990s....direction questions and answers were a common part of everyday life. I can remember in the 1990s having some German stop me on the street (assuming I was a native) and asking about such-and-such 'park' (which I happened to know), and I proudly gave them a 20-second piece on how to reach this destination. I would imagine in the 1970s....most Germans were confronted with this 'lost' dilemma at least twenty times a year. In the past decade? It's almost disintegrated....with the arrival of smart-phones, and GPS mapping tools. When you do have a German looking lost, it's a 99-percent chance they don't have a smart-phone, and they are over the age of fifty.
Fourth, this introduction business is simply one door leading onto another door, leading onto another door. There's this thread of an introduction that you learn, which has basically seven to ten introduction elements. You always address what village you live in....where you came from originally (your homeland)....your 'wishes' in life....what languages you speak....and your profession or former job in life. After about eight months in an intense language class, you've memorized the typical introduction, and as long as it stays upon that line, then it's fine. In the grand test to assess my introduction skills....the two old German test-gals went way beyond the normal questions, and I found myself having to explain at least a dozen things that had never occurred to me as being in the next question 'batch'.
Fifth, finally I come to announcement training. It's a rather comical thing but a fair amount of language training involves tapes run of train stations or radio stations. So this radio piece will be running....telling you a dozen traffic jams in the local area, and the question at the end will be....what's the situation on Autobahn 7, with four possible answers. One of the answers will be that Autobahn 7 was never even mentioned. Then you start to go back over the one-play only of this tape in your mind (that's all you get in the test phase), with a dozen references to traffic jams....realizing that '7' was never mentioned.
The train station tape? If you've ever been in any major train station in Germany....you know the echo effect. You could play that one single 20-second tape over a dozen times, and maybe get the jest of this....that the train set for track 2 has now been moved to track 3, and will be twenty-five minutes late. Most Germans have readily given up on the speakers, and they go to the central point to see the big board, and the notes on the board show the right track, and corrected time. Of course, this is another technology development over the past twenty years, and demonstrates that Germans readily hated the speaker system because of the echos.
I admit, you need some standards. But I think society and culture is under rapid change, with technology dissolving away standards that were important twenty years ago, and today....aren't worth memorizing.
Their basic description here is that you need to be versed enough, to understand simple German sentences....introduce yourself in a group....go out into a grocery store and shop....take and answer basic questions...ask directions (even if you have a smart-phone with a GPS map showing you the way), and fill in bureaucratic forms.
So you look over the list I just gave you, and it begs questions.
First, the bureaucratic forms. When the Auslander (Foreigner) office hands you the visa application form.....it's roughly a dozen pages asking you various detailed information. Some is useful (I admit)....some is worthless, (asking me about my relatives, who aren't coming or part incoming situation) it's is a waste of effort. But you have to be looking at the precise way they ask the question, and give only what they need. Turning the dozen-page application into a thirty-page 'answer' would be the wrong effort on your part.
Second, even my German wife would admit that shopping at some local German grocery requires tons of extra skills that BAMF never discusses or talks about in public. She would lecture me for hours and hours, about how to buy things only on sale, or how to avoid these certain products because they are inferior, or how product X should only be brought in this particular season. If I used my wife's guidance, it'd amount to a 700-page book on shopping, and Syrians would probably run out of the room in a panic because of the massive amount of guidance involved.
Third, on asking and getting directions. Germans would readily admit...in the 1960s to the 1990s....direction questions and answers were a common part of everyday life. I can remember in the 1990s having some German stop me on the street (assuming I was a native) and asking about such-and-such 'park' (which I happened to know), and I proudly gave them a 20-second piece on how to reach this destination. I would imagine in the 1970s....most Germans were confronted with this 'lost' dilemma at least twenty times a year. In the past decade? It's almost disintegrated....with the arrival of smart-phones, and GPS mapping tools. When you do have a German looking lost, it's a 99-percent chance they don't have a smart-phone, and they are over the age of fifty.
Fourth, this introduction business is simply one door leading onto another door, leading onto another door. There's this thread of an introduction that you learn, which has basically seven to ten introduction elements. You always address what village you live in....where you came from originally (your homeland)....your 'wishes' in life....what languages you speak....and your profession or former job in life. After about eight months in an intense language class, you've memorized the typical introduction, and as long as it stays upon that line, then it's fine. In the grand test to assess my introduction skills....the two old German test-gals went way beyond the normal questions, and I found myself having to explain at least a dozen things that had never occurred to me as being in the next question 'batch'.
Fifth, finally I come to announcement training. It's a rather comical thing but a fair amount of language training involves tapes run of train stations or radio stations. So this radio piece will be running....telling you a dozen traffic jams in the local area, and the question at the end will be....what's the situation on Autobahn 7, with four possible answers. One of the answers will be that Autobahn 7 was never even mentioned. Then you start to go back over the one-play only of this tape in your mind (that's all you get in the test phase), with a dozen references to traffic jams....realizing that '7' was never mentioned.
The train station tape? If you've ever been in any major train station in Germany....you know the echo effect. You could play that one single 20-second tape over a dozen times, and maybe get the jest of this....that the train set for track 2 has now been moved to track 3, and will be twenty-five minutes late. Most Germans have readily given up on the speakers, and they go to the central point to see the big board, and the notes on the board show the right track, and corrected time. Of course, this is another technology development over the past twenty years, and demonstrates that Germans readily hated the speaker system because of the echos.
I admit, you need some standards. But I think society and culture is under rapid change, with technology dissolving away standards that were important twenty years ago, and today....aren't worth memorizing.
Saturday, April 27, 2019
Wedding Party Episode Continues On
Back around the last week of March, I essayed a piece on a autobahn 'slowdown' up in northern Germany, which was triggered by a Turkish wedding party. The intent of the group was to block off the autobahn, giving an opportunity to photograph the wedding couple (I assume standing there on the autobahn), and creating havoc with other drivers. At the time, cops were referring to this as a dangerous and illegal act.
Well....today, if you follow German regional news....the Düsseldorf police have put together a investigation commission (commonly called a 'EK'), which is set on this episode from Autobahn 3 (over near Ratingen).
What the authorities are saying is that some folks are already on the list, and a couple of more are being pursued in some manner. It's no longer just a small investigative matter.....it's now made it to the state-level. Orders to appear in front of a state-judge? It now appears very likely.
This blocking of autobahns....it's pretty well defined in the German driving laws, and the minute you suggest actions that threaten the safety of the general public....the odds of losing your license for a year are fairly near 100-percent, with a hefty fine, and real potential for at least a couple of months in some state-jail.
The curious thing is that this wedding-party trend (seen mostly all with only Turks) has been increasing around the country. The firing of pistols in the air? In metropolitan areas, it's a fairly documented event now. Cops will identify the culprits....seize the weapons....and send a summons to appear in court. Yet none of this seems to diminish the actions.
These characters in the Ratingen episode? They will likely need pricey-lawyers and will be lucky if they just lose their license and pay the hefty fine involved.
Well....today, if you follow German regional news....the Düsseldorf police have put together a investigation commission (commonly called a 'EK'), which is set on this episode from Autobahn 3 (over near Ratingen).
What the authorities are saying is that some folks are already on the list, and a couple of more are being pursued in some manner. It's no longer just a small investigative matter.....it's now made it to the state-level. Orders to appear in front of a state-judge? It now appears very likely.
This blocking of autobahns....it's pretty well defined in the German driving laws, and the minute you suggest actions that threaten the safety of the general public....the odds of losing your license for a year are fairly near 100-percent, with a hefty fine, and real potential for at least a couple of months in some state-jail.
The curious thing is that this wedding-party trend (seen mostly all with only Turks) has been increasing around the country. The firing of pistols in the air? In metropolitan areas, it's a fairly documented event now. Cops will identify the culprits....seize the weapons....and send a summons to appear in court. Yet none of this seems to diminish the actions.
These characters in the Ratingen episode? They will likely need pricey-lawyers and will be lucky if they just lose their license and pay the hefty fine involved.
Should Woeful Parents Lose Their Kids?
About a year ago, as the ISIS war in Syria and Iraq was winding down.....there was this chatter going on about the foreign ISIS members (the Brits, the French, the Germans, etc)....the young men and women who'd drifted off to participate in this civil war going on from 2013 to 2018. The question came up about what would happen to those who'd survived. Naturally....neither Iraq or Syria want these individuals to remain. Most of the young men are dead, but those who survived, and their wives (with kids now) are stuck in this limbo.
Well....things have shifted, and some of those individuals have been allowed back into their former homeland. I noticed this past week, questions have arisen in Germany about the situation....if you can possibly allow the kids to remain with Mom or Dad. The accusation? Welfare offices in Germany are stuck with this weird scenario....Mom and Dad were radicalized and at least one of them were killing people for a religious cause. So, should you allow the kids to remain in that type of household?
What the journalists say is that no case has yet risen to the level of a judge taking away kids. But there are various investigative efforts going on, and some welfare 'minders' are stuck with this crazy scenario, and their duty to protect kids.
If they do bend over backwards....are they creating another generation of radicalized youth in Germany? If they go the other way (to protect the kid), will the courts get involved and deny this solution?
How many living parents, with kids....are we talking about? In general, the authorities hint that roughly 300 individuals (adults) have come back into Germany. Roughly fifty kids are among the women who've come back. It's not a massive number, nor will there be some national policy over this situation. It'll amount to a city by city review, and how individual judges will react (in family court) to each situation.
Another element that probably won't end for at least two to three more years.
Well....things have shifted, and some of those individuals have been allowed back into their former homeland. I noticed this past week, questions have arisen in Germany about the situation....if you can possibly allow the kids to remain with Mom or Dad. The accusation? Welfare offices in Germany are stuck with this weird scenario....Mom and Dad were radicalized and at least one of them were killing people for a religious cause. So, should you allow the kids to remain in that type of household?
What the journalists say is that no case has yet risen to the level of a judge taking away kids. But there are various investigative efforts going on, and some welfare 'minders' are stuck with this crazy scenario, and their duty to protect kids.
If they do bend over backwards....are they creating another generation of radicalized youth in Germany? If they go the other way (to protect the kid), will the courts get involved and deny this solution?
How many living parents, with kids....are we talking about? In general, the authorities hint that roughly 300 individuals (adults) have come back into Germany. Roughly fifty kids are among the women who've come back. It's not a massive number, nor will there be some national policy over this situation. It'll amount to a city by city review, and how individual judges will react (in family court) to each situation.
Another element that probably won't end for at least two to three more years.
Stabbing Chatter
If you go by a German grocery, there tends to be around twenty to thirty magazines on the rack, which tend to be 'women's' magazines....mostly designed for women thirty to seventy years old. Rarely do these get any press coverage, or any public notice. But this month, something occurred. A magazine called Illu der Frau, did a simple article to discuss what you need to do....in the event of a stabbing.
Now, prior to this, if you gone out to women (say over the age of forty) and asked them to rank first aid events, stabbings probably would have ranked with German women up around number 10,000 on the list of first aid events. Its more likely that you fall off a bicycle, or suffer a dog-bite.
But the editors with this women's magazine decided to carry this brief first aid page, and explain stabbings, and how to handle them.
Some folks took to this first aid episode, and asked about public safety, and if stabbings are increasing. To be honest, if you go and attempt to use national numbers....the German cops haven't really categorized stabbings alone in one single column. It's a rather new trend. As far as I can remember (even going back to the late 1970s)....knife fights in Germany were just awful rare. At some point in 1979, I came upon some beer-bottle fight in Frankfurt between two drunk Germans....which I thought was pretty risky behavior (both eventually were calmed down by their associates and the messy affair ended peacefully).
To be honest though, there just weren't gang-related fights or one-on-one 'combat' on German streets. You started to notice some serious fights around thirty years ago.....as drug-usage crept upward, and football hooliganism thrived.
At some point last year in Wiesbaden, the number of knife reports/violence....reached some point where the city council said 'enough', and they made up a first of its kind....a no-knife 'zone' (mostly in the shopping district). If you walk in that district and cops approach you....they can demand a search of your person, and a knife will cost you 5,000 Euro (at least they hint the fine might go that high).
So what will this first aid article trigger? Well....some women are going to ask the question....are stabbings increasing, and the true answer is....if you live in a metropolitan area, then yes, they are increasing in frequency. Course, the other issue is that these magazines are all looking for some trigger to get more consumption or increased sales.
Now, prior to this, if you gone out to women (say over the age of forty) and asked them to rank first aid events, stabbings probably would have ranked with German women up around number 10,000 on the list of first aid events. Its more likely that you fall off a bicycle, or suffer a dog-bite.
But the editors with this women's magazine decided to carry this brief first aid page, and explain stabbings, and how to handle them.
Some folks took to this first aid episode, and asked about public safety, and if stabbings are increasing. To be honest, if you go and attempt to use national numbers....the German cops haven't really categorized stabbings alone in one single column. It's a rather new trend. As far as I can remember (even going back to the late 1970s)....knife fights in Germany were just awful rare. At some point in 1979, I came upon some beer-bottle fight in Frankfurt between two drunk Germans....which I thought was pretty risky behavior (both eventually were calmed down by their associates and the messy affair ended peacefully).
To be honest though, there just weren't gang-related fights or one-on-one 'combat' on German streets. You started to notice some serious fights around thirty years ago.....as drug-usage crept upward, and football hooliganism thrived.
At some point last year in Wiesbaden, the number of knife reports/violence....reached some point where the city council said 'enough', and they made up a first of its kind....a no-knife 'zone' (mostly in the shopping district). If you walk in that district and cops approach you....they can demand a search of your person, and a knife will cost you 5,000 Euro (at least they hint the fine might go that high).
So what will this first aid article trigger? Well....some women are going to ask the question....are stabbings increasing, and the true answer is....if you live in a metropolitan area, then yes, they are increasing in frequency. Course, the other issue is that these magazines are all looking for some trigger to get more consumption or increased sales.
Political Chatter
So this survey was done, across all of the EU, and the results came to a non-surprising result (at least I think so)....the majority of people in this EU election coming up shortly, are mostly voting AGAINST certain parties, rather than FOR certain parties.
Oh, they tried to say something along the lines of populist voting trends, but there's a lot of general frustrations, as you go country-to-country, scanning their woes and general anger.
But I'll point out this odd situation with EU elections....rarely do you see any major political promises or will you detect any great hyped-up sense among Germans. Yes, there are signs up to remind you of the election, and some political chat forums are giving access to the parties. But it's a very low-key type election, if compared against the national election of 2017.
The one trend that will come out of this election? More right-wing parties will be showing up in Brussels, and part of the system. Also, shocking most.....the Brits are voting, and their representatives will be showing up as well. Pro-BREXIT people among them? Yes. In fact, it won't surprise me if half the people showing up from the UK are pro-BREXIT in some fashion.
Oh, they tried to say something along the lines of populist voting trends, but there's a lot of general frustrations, as you go country-to-country, scanning their woes and general anger.
But I'll point out this odd situation with EU elections....rarely do you see any major political promises or will you detect any great hyped-up sense among Germans. Yes, there are signs up to remind you of the election, and some political chat forums are giving access to the parties. But it's a very low-key type election, if compared against the national election of 2017.
The one trend that will come out of this election? More right-wing parties will be showing up in Brussels, and part of the system. Also, shocking most.....the Brits are voting, and their representatives will be showing up as well. Pro-BREXIT people among them? Yes. In fact, it won't surprise me if half the people showing up from the UK are pro-BREXIT in some fashion.
Friday, April 26, 2019
A Day Out
I went and spent six hours in the heart of Wiesbaden yesterday (in the shopping district). Two curious things stood out from this long extended walk.
First, I entered into a store and had to stand there for a while....waiting for my wife in her search for the 'right' clothing. In through the front door strolls two kids...both around eight years old....unaccompanied. They proceeded to run through the store, like it was some type of playground. They eventually made their way to the elevator, and from what I could observe...punched the button for the top of the building where the parking deck was located. Because of the location display above the door, you can note where the elevator was heading.
Store fronts turning into playgrounds? Germans would have laughed ten years ago, but you have a number of buildings in the district which have flipped into affordable housing units, with non-Germans taking up residence. There's no playground for the kids in this whole region of town, and they've started to turn the stores into their playground. One can sense that this is going to develop into a long term problem and eventually turn shoppers off if a store ends up with a dozen kids romping through and making a nuisance out of themselves.
Second, beggars. In this six-hour period, I was confronted by five different beggars (they actually came up within three feet of me, and were begging).
If you've ever been to Wiesbaden, one of the charm-points is the cafes and restaurants right there on the sidewalk. Well....that's precisely where the beggars are making their pitch. They are anticipating guilt, and people handing over money.
Well, Germans just aren't that guilty anymore, and their patience with this 'new' crowd is growing less and less accepting. Five years ago, you could have spent an entire weekend in the district, with no beggars. Things have changed a good bit. If you go and count the street-walking beggars, and the stationary ones (they've planted themselves at certain points), there's probably fifty to seventy active beggars now in the district, or in the train-station area.
The bulk of these folks....I have my doubts that they are here and registered for possible asylum. All are male, and usually under the age of thirty. They skipped the process of registering for asylum because they know that they will fail the test and be sent back to their home country.....so lingering here as beggars is more acceptable.
Something like this in the 1970s or 1980s, in Wiesbaden? No. This is something that popped up in the past five years. The locals seem to be shaking their head because they figure that some social agency would handle these folks, and they'd be 'taken care of'. So questions arise, and this often now ends up as a topic of conversation.
First, I entered into a store and had to stand there for a while....waiting for my wife in her search for the 'right' clothing. In through the front door strolls two kids...both around eight years old....unaccompanied. They proceeded to run through the store, like it was some type of playground. They eventually made their way to the elevator, and from what I could observe...punched the button for the top of the building where the parking deck was located. Because of the location display above the door, you can note where the elevator was heading.
Store fronts turning into playgrounds? Germans would have laughed ten years ago, but you have a number of buildings in the district which have flipped into affordable housing units, with non-Germans taking up residence. There's no playground for the kids in this whole region of town, and they've started to turn the stores into their playground. One can sense that this is going to develop into a long term problem and eventually turn shoppers off if a store ends up with a dozen kids romping through and making a nuisance out of themselves.
Second, beggars. In this six-hour period, I was confronted by five different beggars (they actually came up within three feet of me, and were begging).
If you've ever been to Wiesbaden, one of the charm-points is the cafes and restaurants right there on the sidewalk. Well....that's precisely where the beggars are making their pitch. They are anticipating guilt, and people handing over money.
Well, Germans just aren't that guilty anymore, and their patience with this 'new' crowd is growing less and less accepting. Five years ago, you could have spent an entire weekend in the district, with no beggars. Things have changed a good bit. If you go and count the street-walking beggars, and the stationary ones (they've planted themselves at certain points), there's probably fifty to seventy active beggars now in the district, or in the train-station area.
The bulk of these folks....I have my doubts that they are here and registered for possible asylum. All are male, and usually under the age of thirty. They skipped the process of registering for asylum because they know that they will fail the test and be sent back to their home country.....so lingering here as beggars is more acceptable.
Something like this in the 1970s or 1980s, in Wiesbaden? No. This is something that popped up in the past five years. The locals seem to be shaking their head because they figure that some social agency would handle these folks, and they'd be 'taken care of'. So questions arise, and this often now ends up as a topic of conversation.
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Political Chatter
It wasn't front-page news, but this item came up last week, and has generated a bit of discussion in Germany.
Most all of the major commercial companies in Germany donate money to political parties. I won't suggest all of them get money like this, but for the big parties like the CDU or SPD....it's a virtual guaranteed thing.
So Daimler came up and said that for 2019, it's finished and will NOT donate money to any party, period. Chief reason? They left that blank, but I think they were sending a message to both the CDU and SPD parties.....that this diesel woes business had affected them, and the parties weren't doing much to resolve this mess.
The amount that usually came through? I did a fair amount of reading and the best numbers I could find were a yearly payment of 320,000 Euro to the political parties. It wasn't split up or spoken over which parties got the money, but I would assume that the CDU, CSU, SPD, Green Party and FDP probably got that chunk of money.
The odds that this will 'snowball' and several other companies might quit? It wouldn't shock me if VW and BMW also do the same....just to send a message.
Does this lessen 'democracy'? I know, it's an amusing thought. Basically, this yearly donation by Daimler was supposed to get them some inside seat, and ensure things went their way. So they've made a statement that they are frustrated, and will just stand back to see if the political parties react. If other companies repeat the practice? This would ultimately trigger the parties into finding lesser accommodations for their party meetings, and cut down on these meetings.
Most all of the major commercial companies in Germany donate money to political parties. I won't suggest all of them get money like this, but for the big parties like the CDU or SPD....it's a virtual guaranteed thing.
So Daimler came up and said that for 2019, it's finished and will NOT donate money to any party, period. Chief reason? They left that blank, but I think they were sending a message to both the CDU and SPD parties.....that this diesel woes business had affected them, and the parties weren't doing much to resolve this mess.
The amount that usually came through? I did a fair amount of reading and the best numbers I could find were a yearly payment of 320,000 Euro to the political parties. It wasn't split up or spoken over which parties got the money, but I would assume that the CDU, CSU, SPD, Green Party and FDP probably got that chunk of money.
The odds that this will 'snowball' and several other companies might quit? It wouldn't shock me if VW and BMW also do the same....just to send a message.
Does this lessen 'democracy'? I know, it's an amusing thought. Basically, this yearly donation by Daimler was supposed to get them some inside seat, and ensure things went their way. So they've made a statement that they are frustrated, and will just stand back to see if the political parties react. If other companies repeat the practice? This would ultimately trigger the parties into finding lesser accommodations for their party meetings, and cut down on these meetings.
Drought Story
2018 was a particularly 'harsh' year for weather in Germany....in terms of a lengthy and rare drought. In my particular region (Hessen, the central state of Germany).....the last real rainfall that I saw was around the end of April. A light shower or two occurred in June (call them sprinkle episodes), and the drought really didn't end until mid-September when the fall rains came back onto the scene.
Local farmers? Well, they took the hit. If you planted corn in Hessen, unless you irrigated, you lost the entire crop.
Toward July of last year, I made a big drive down to the northern edge of Bavaria, and found fantastic crops of corn standing there.....they'd had the rainfall on schedule. So it wasn't a national drought, but it came fairly close to that.
This morning, the weather experts talk of a repeat. The chief problem if this occurs? Farmers here can afford a total loss on crops for one single season, but to suggest a second season right after that? It bring discouragement, and questions if this might occur a third time.
Historians will point out that there have been cycles like this before in Germany, and even cycles of too much rainfall...causing crop losses as well.
But this adds to the public belief of climate change, and it convinces people that it's permanent. All of this dramatic business....make politics even more difficult in the end.
Local farmers? Well, they took the hit. If you planted corn in Hessen, unless you irrigated, you lost the entire crop.
Toward July of last year, I made a big drive down to the northern edge of Bavaria, and found fantastic crops of corn standing there.....they'd had the rainfall on schedule. So it wasn't a national drought, but it came fairly close to that.
This morning, the weather experts talk of a repeat. The chief problem if this occurs? Farmers here can afford a total loss on crops for one single season, but to suggest a second season right after that? It bring discouragement, and questions if this might occur a third time.
Historians will point out that there have been cycles like this before in Germany, and even cycles of too much rainfall...causing crop losses as well.
But this adds to the public belief of climate change, and it convinces people that it's permanent. All of this dramatic business....make politics even more difficult in the end.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Children's Crusade of 1212
Well, I'll lay this story out there and just say that it might be totally true....partially true....or entirely fake. Historians have picked up pieces of this, and tried to confirm it. What they get is a repeat by some historian in the 1200s to 1400s, who simply repeated what he heard.
So this story starts out with this kid (probably between 12 and 14 years old). Folks aren't that sure about the age, and that's what starts to tear apart the legit nature of this.
The kid says that he's had this visitation from Jesus, and he (the kid) was told to mount a holy crusade to the Middle East and convert all these Muslims over to being Christians. The message audience? Kids (not adults).
The story is split at this point....some saying this occurs in France....others in Germany.
The bulk of the belief in the story leans toward the kid being called Nicholas, and from Koln, Germany. In this part of the legend....the kid is a shepard, and known for being a fairly talkative individual, fully versed in persuasive capabilities.
The story lays out the problem of getting to Italy (meaning a whole summer of walking), and then the Med would split apart, and allow the kids accompanying Nicholas to walk all the way to the Holy Land (you can figure that the sea split would have to last at least sixty days.
The story goes that the group made some decision to split, two routes to Italy were chosen. Numbers in the two groups? A total unknown, but it often sounds like it was several hundred in both groups. As the story goes....the travels were pretty harsh....winter set in, and the bulk of kids on this journey either died in the winter period or they turned around and gave up.
The German story ends up with Nicholas dying on the return trip from Italy to Germany, having given up. Some of the remainder kids stayed in Italy, and no one ever got to the crusades regions.
The French story? Well, it's similar. The kid in charge is 12-year-old Stephen. In this piece, Stephen says he has a personal letter from Jesus (no explanation on how Jesus wrote it....he didn't know French) addressed to the King of France. I should note that Stephen is always identified as a shepherd as well.
His movement was more a religious cult nature, with various members who claimed to have miracle capabilities, and special 'gifts' (powers). The King of France at the time....tried to put a halt to the spectacle and ordered the followers to disband and return home. In this case, the 'kids' just didn't pay attention to the king.
In this episode, Stephen wasn't discussing converting Muslims to Christians. His mission was just to lead French people off to the Middle East, period.
What historians generally say is that this Stephen-period went on from early spring of 1212....to the fall, and in some big march from Paris, down to the south of France (along the Med). The group, which started off in the thousands.....found that they were mostly begging along the way, and enthusiasm dropped off big-time as summer started to come to an end. Stephen? He basically disappears entirely, and no one ever notes him again.
The odds that one or both of the stories are true? I've heard both stories told, and generally regard it as odd that one starts up in Germany, and the other in France....yet both around the same time period. This leads me to think that it's just one single event, and probably just the French story by itself. The shepherd job being both their occupations? Just odd, I think.
The odds that both are true, and both Nicolas and Stephen were both Paranoid Schizophrenic types? Well, yeah....this is the chief thought that entertains me.....both were in on some delusional business, and hyped up on religion.
I always thought that it'd make a great movie, with either Nicolas or Stephen, and this cult business which got out of hand.
The odds of some youth cult leader emerging today? With social media? I'd say there's a 99-percent chance that you could recreate the same dynamics and climax, as this kid crusade of 1212.
So this story starts out with this kid (probably between 12 and 14 years old). Folks aren't that sure about the age, and that's what starts to tear apart the legit nature of this.
The kid says that he's had this visitation from Jesus, and he (the kid) was told to mount a holy crusade to the Middle East and convert all these Muslims over to being Christians. The message audience? Kids (not adults).
The story is split at this point....some saying this occurs in France....others in Germany.
The bulk of the belief in the story leans toward the kid being called Nicholas, and from Koln, Germany. In this part of the legend....the kid is a shepard, and known for being a fairly talkative individual, fully versed in persuasive capabilities.
The story lays out the problem of getting to Italy (meaning a whole summer of walking), and then the Med would split apart, and allow the kids accompanying Nicholas to walk all the way to the Holy Land (you can figure that the sea split would have to last at least sixty days.
The story goes that the group made some decision to split, two routes to Italy were chosen. Numbers in the two groups? A total unknown, but it often sounds like it was several hundred in both groups. As the story goes....the travels were pretty harsh....winter set in, and the bulk of kids on this journey either died in the winter period or they turned around and gave up.
The German story ends up with Nicholas dying on the return trip from Italy to Germany, having given up. Some of the remainder kids stayed in Italy, and no one ever got to the crusades regions.
The French story? Well, it's similar. The kid in charge is 12-year-old Stephen. In this piece, Stephen says he has a personal letter from Jesus (no explanation on how Jesus wrote it....he didn't know French) addressed to the King of France. I should note that Stephen is always identified as a shepherd as well.
His movement was more a religious cult nature, with various members who claimed to have miracle capabilities, and special 'gifts' (powers). The King of France at the time....tried to put a halt to the spectacle and ordered the followers to disband and return home. In this case, the 'kids' just didn't pay attention to the king.
In this episode, Stephen wasn't discussing converting Muslims to Christians. His mission was just to lead French people off to the Middle East, period.
What historians generally say is that this Stephen-period went on from early spring of 1212....to the fall, and in some big march from Paris, down to the south of France (along the Med). The group, which started off in the thousands.....found that they were mostly begging along the way, and enthusiasm dropped off big-time as summer started to come to an end. Stephen? He basically disappears entirely, and no one ever notes him again.
The odds that one or both of the stories are true? I've heard both stories told, and generally regard it as odd that one starts up in Germany, and the other in France....yet both around the same time period. This leads me to think that it's just one single event, and probably just the French story by itself. The shepherd job being both their occupations? Just odd, I think.
The odds that both are true, and both Nicolas and Stephen were both Paranoid Schizophrenic types? Well, yeah....this is the chief thought that entertains me.....both were in on some delusional business, and hyped up on religion.
I always thought that it'd make a great movie, with either Nicolas or Stephen, and this cult business which got out of hand.
The odds of some youth cult leader emerging today? With social media? I'd say there's a 99-percent chance that you could recreate the same dynamics and climax, as this kid crusade of 1212.
The Frankfurt Terror Crew from 22 March?
Ten terrorists (actually 11, but they released one) were detained on 22 March here in the Wiesbaden, Mainz, Offenbach, and Frankfurt area. Oddly enough, nothing has been said or noted by the national, state, or regional press since that weekend. The ten guys? Still being held, which means some judge used extra powers to avoid releasing them. But the lack of any updated information, or additional news.....over eight weeks? It simply makes this a very curious event.
Are Germans Eternal Pessimists?
In a group of Brits and Americans (non-Germans) who've lived around Germany for at least a decade, this is one of the ten questions you can bring up and the majority of the group will grin, order a second beer, and go into a hour-long debate about how pessimistic Germans are, and their pet theories on why.
It's a discussion that has always bothered me. Germany runs one of the best highway/autobahn systems in the world, yet have continual whining behavior about corrective actions needed, or 'problems'. The same is true for the railway system (one of those that I regard as the best in Europe). You can bring up healthcare, and Germans have a pessimistic attitude that it might take three to four days to get an appointment with their local doctor, which I don't see as a big deal. The list goes on and on....things aren't quite as bad as Germans will chat about or get frustrated over.
Something that links itself to high expectations? I tend to argue that point about German behavior. If you build a railway line from Wiesbaden to Frankfurt, and 110 trams, or trains are supposed to make this run daily along a schedule....then the majority of Germans expect the 110 to run on time. The fact that only 95 run within a minute of the schedule, and fifteen are from three to fifteen minutes late? I wouldn't consider it a big deal, but for Germans.....that schedule was supposed to be 'absolute'.
The same issue exists with promises that such-and-such property tax system will be fixed or resolved, giving people a happy feeling, then six months later with the new system.....you suddenly find half the German public disenchanted or frustrated about the end-result.
Is it bad enough that it's an actual label that people stick on Germans now? I think over the past three or four decades....it's become more obvious, as infrastructure grows, and things get to being more complicated in nature.
It's a discussion that has always bothered me. Germany runs one of the best highway/autobahn systems in the world, yet have continual whining behavior about corrective actions needed, or 'problems'. The same is true for the railway system (one of those that I regard as the best in Europe). You can bring up healthcare, and Germans have a pessimistic attitude that it might take three to four days to get an appointment with their local doctor, which I don't see as a big deal. The list goes on and on....things aren't quite as bad as Germans will chat about or get frustrated over.
Something that links itself to high expectations? I tend to argue that point about German behavior. If you build a railway line from Wiesbaden to Frankfurt, and 110 trams, or trains are supposed to make this run daily along a schedule....then the majority of Germans expect the 110 to run on time. The fact that only 95 run within a minute of the schedule, and fifteen are from three to fifteen minutes late? I wouldn't consider it a big deal, but for Germans.....that schedule was supposed to be 'absolute'.
The same issue exists with promises that such-and-such property tax system will be fixed or resolved, giving people a happy feeling, then six months later with the new system.....you suddenly find half the German public disenchanted or frustrated about the end-result.
Is it bad enough that it's an actual label that people stick on Germans now? I think over the past three or four decades....it's become more obvious, as infrastructure grows, and things get to being more complicated in nature.
Monday, April 22, 2019
Railway History
The first railway into Wiesbaden, came after a number of years of debate (not planning). There were three entities involved in these talks, with one of them.....the Grand Duchy of Hesse being the negative party. The two other parties? The Free City of Frankfurt (note, at this point, it was not part of any nation, or Prussia), and the Duchy of Nassau (mostly responsible for Wiesbaden itself).
So this is a bit of local history....which came to be settled in 1835.
Why the argument by the Grand Duchy of Hesse? Their control was over Mainz-Kastel, which is where the railway would pass through....to reach Wiesbaden (roughly three miles away). At this point in the early 1830s.....the Grand Duchy was really attached to Mainz (across the river from Mainz-Kastel).
The negative position was driven by port traffic, and this fear that the port would be lessen in terms of profit....if the railway was built. So their negotiation tendency in this whole episode....Frankfurt ought to go and build this railway to Darmstadt, and pass through Offenbach instead. I know.....it's a fairly stupid argument but this was the drama played out for several years as these officials met and discussed the matter.
The final part was opened in the spring of 1840. This Frankfurt to Wiesbaden train? It was the ninth line built in Germany at that point.
The end-point in Wiesbaden? This originally came to what they called the Taunusbahnof, which stood at the corner of Rhine Strasse, and Wilhelm Strasse. There today? No. This train station was dismantled around 1906, when the new station was built (which still stands today). Why the dismantling? Well....it was capable of handling major traffic, and it had been noted already in the 1880s as a eyesore in the local community.
So this is a bit of local history....which came to be settled in 1835.
Why the argument by the Grand Duchy of Hesse? Their control was over Mainz-Kastel, which is where the railway would pass through....to reach Wiesbaden (roughly three miles away). At this point in the early 1830s.....the Grand Duchy was really attached to Mainz (across the river from Mainz-Kastel).
The negative position was driven by port traffic, and this fear that the port would be lessen in terms of profit....if the railway was built. So their negotiation tendency in this whole episode....Frankfurt ought to go and build this railway to Darmstadt, and pass through Offenbach instead. I know.....it's a fairly stupid argument but this was the drama played out for several years as these officials met and discussed the matter.
The final part was opened in the spring of 1840. This Frankfurt to Wiesbaden train? It was the ninth line built in Germany at that point.
The end-point in Wiesbaden? This originally came to what they called the Taunusbahnof, which stood at the corner of Rhine Strasse, and Wilhelm Strasse. There today? No. This train station was dismantled around 1906, when the new station was built (which still stands today). Why the dismantling? Well....it was capable of handling major traffic, and it had been noted already in the 1880s as a eyesore in the local community.
1924: When Radio Finally 'Arrived' in Germany
At the beginning of 1924, there were a total of 1,500 users (licensed radio receivers) across all of Germany. A year later....going into the first week of January 1925, there were 549,000 licensed receivers in the country. It was the 'rage'.
The original fee, to have a yearly registration (don't ask why it had to be license), was 60 Reich Marks per year. For those who aren't familiar with Reich Marks, they existed as the national currency of Germany from 1924 to 1948. I should add that the Reich Mark only came about because of the massive inflation after WW I, and it was a paperwork solution to counter the spiral of the Papiermark.
I spent a fair amount of time trying find the average monthly salary for Germans in this 1924/1924 era, and mostly failed. One fact sitting out there suggested that a typical worker in the 1932 timeframe made around 1,300 RMs per month. So this 60 RMs per year wasn't an outragious cost fact (if you were middle-to-upper class).
What brought about the higher usage? In the spring of 1924, the Frankfurt station went and added two unique evening shows to their features....a dance-music 'hour', and a youth-hour. Both showed that the public appeal was for entertainment needs a plus-up.
Toward the middle of 1924, an odd thing happened.....'radio-fever' became a term used quiet often, and the radio license fee dropped in a dramatic fashion (to 2 RM per month).
In the summer of 1924, the Frankfurt station added a major drama....Lancelot and Sanderein. This became a major hit with the public in the Hessen region.
Before the end of summer, radio advertisements had been added (they hadn't existed prior to that point). That dynamic began to show profitability of the shows, and increased more production of radio products.
By the end of 1924, there were over 70 companies producing 'approved' radios in Germany. I should note here as well....that roughly two dozen 'black' companies existed out there and were producing radios not recognized by the government. Why the need for recognition existed....has never been explained to me. In the fall of 1925, the government finally relented on 'stamping' its approval on radio construction, and quit the practice.
By the end of 1925, Germany had one-million licensed radios around the entire nation. If you go and figure four to six residents in each house....virtually the entire upper and working-class had one in their home.
In 1926, a remarkable event occurred where the development of a 'cheap' radio was finally developed (Loewe). The OE333 is referred to, as changing the audience level, and giving virtually everyone a chance to have a radio in their home. Total cost in 1926? 100 RM (note, just for radio....the antenna and cable would been an added expense).
By the end of 1929, there were three-million licensed radios within Germany. In a four-short-year period....they went from 1,500 to three-million.
Laying the path for the Nazi upswing? There is some evidence to show that the Weimar government used regulations to stunt and hold back the Nazis all the way up to the 1930 period.
In the fall of 1933....the Nazi Party put up on a major display the newest and greatest model of radio....the Volksempfänger (the People's Radio). This cheap radio could be bought for 76 RM. With this and Goebbels leading the propaganda campaign, the Nazi Party was absolutely locked into place by the 1936 period.
Yes, in roughly one single decade, a box had found its way into every single home within Germany, and transformed the the focus of the nation to one single political stance.
The original fee, to have a yearly registration (don't ask why it had to be license), was 60 Reich Marks per year. For those who aren't familiar with Reich Marks, they existed as the national currency of Germany from 1924 to 1948. I should add that the Reich Mark only came about because of the massive inflation after WW I, and it was a paperwork solution to counter the spiral of the Papiermark.
I spent a fair amount of time trying find the average monthly salary for Germans in this 1924/1924 era, and mostly failed. One fact sitting out there suggested that a typical worker in the 1932 timeframe made around 1,300 RMs per month. So this 60 RMs per year wasn't an outragious cost fact (if you were middle-to-upper class).
What brought about the higher usage? In the spring of 1924, the Frankfurt station went and added two unique evening shows to their features....a dance-music 'hour', and a youth-hour. Both showed that the public appeal was for entertainment needs a plus-up.
Toward the middle of 1924, an odd thing happened.....'radio-fever' became a term used quiet often, and the radio license fee dropped in a dramatic fashion (to 2 RM per month).
In the summer of 1924, the Frankfurt station added a major drama....Lancelot and Sanderein. This became a major hit with the public in the Hessen region.
Before the end of summer, radio advertisements had been added (they hadn't existed prior to that point). That dynamic began to show profitability of the shows, and increased more production of radio products.
By the end of 1924, there were over 70 companies producing 'approved' radios in Germany. I should note here as well....that roughly two dozen 'black' companies existed out there and were producing radios not recognized by the government. Why the need for recognition existed....has never been explained to me. In the fall of 1925, the government finally relented on 'stamping' its approval on radio construction, and quit the practice.
By the end of 1925, Germany had one-million licensed radios around the entire nation. If you go and figure four to six residents in each house....virtually the entire upper and working-class had one in their home.
In 1926, a remarkable event occurred where the development of a 'cheap' radio was finally developed (Loewe). The OE333 is referred to, as changing the audience level, and giving virtually everyone a chance to have a radio in their home. Total cost in 1926? 100 RM (note, just for radio....the antenna and cable would been an added expense).
By the end of 1929, there were three-million licensed radios within Germany. In a four-short-year period....they went from 1,500 to three-million.
Laying the path for the Nazi upswing? There is some evidence to show that the Weimar government used regulations to stunt and hold back the Nazis all the way up to the 1930 period.
In the fall of 1933....the Nazi Party put up on a major display the newest and greatest model of radio....the Volksempfänger (the People's Radio). This cheap radio could be bought for 76 RM. With this and Goebbels leading the propaganda campaign, the Nazi Party was absolutely locked into place by the 1936 period.
Yes, in roughly one single decade, a box had found its way into every single home within Germany, and transformed the the focus of the nation to one single political stance.
German Political Chatter
I sat and watched the early Monday morning news via commercial German TV (the non-public TV crowd), and they ran a political polling episode.
There's a trend underway, if you haven't noticed in the past month or two in Germany. The CDU (the right of center folks, and Merkel's party) have continued to be under the 30-percent point (right now at 28-percent).
In general, you can lay this out to three distinctive features on the landscape:
1. As much as Merkel and the CDU have danced around the migration, immigration and integration issue....they haven't found any magic to get their 10 points back. It's safe to say that a quarter to a third of the traditional voters are not agreeable with actions performed, or promises made.
2. The selection of AKK to be the new CDU Party chief (four months ago), and eventual Chancellor? That bump-up has never paid much on the promised candidate for the future of the party. The idea of a carbon-copy of Chancellor Merkel, or the use of the term 'mini-Merkel'? Zero positives for the party.
3. Finally, you come to general frustration of the public with the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD). Probably a third of all SPD voters are negative about it, and if you look across at normal CDU voters....you get the same thought. But politics are so splintered up now....that getting a coalition is next to impossible.
But if you ask about the rest of this poll, and what is showing for other parties?
Well....the SPD is locked into third-place with 17 percent (gaining a point over the past week), and the AfD has hit the highest point of 2019, with 13 percent.
In a firm and happy place, the Greens are at 19 percent. Second place now nationally.
The FDP Party sits at 9 percent, and the Linke Party at 11 percent.
But here is the curious factor....this poll says that undecided voters (they might lean one way or another, but in a true 'tomorrow is election day' situation....23 percent say they aren't sure about how to vote for.
A mistake here and there, with negative problems for the CDU and SPD? You could easily have the Greens near 25 percent, and the Merkel crowd (in this 2021 national election) could be near 23 to 24 percent. This is the scenario that I continue to harp upon. Thirty years ago, folks would have laughed at the idea of a Green Party Chancellor. I would suggest that it's not that funny anymore.
There's a trend underway, if you haven't noticed in the past month or two in Germany. The CDU (the right of center folks, and Merkel's party) have continued to be under the 30-percent point (right now at 28-percent).
In general, you can lay this out to three distinctive features on the landscape:
1. As much as Merkel and the CDU have danced around the migration, immigration and integration issue....they haven't found any magic to get their 10 points back. It's safe to say that a quarter to a third of the traditional voters are not agreeable with actions performed, or promises made.
2. The selection of AKK to be the new CDU Party chief (four months ago), and eventual Chancellor? That bump-up has never paid much on the promised candidate for the future of the party. The idea of a carbon-copy of Chancellor Merkel, or the use of the term 'mini-Merkel'? Zero positives for the party.
3. Finally, you come to general frustration of the public with the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD). Probably a third of all SPD voters are negative about it, and if you look across at normal CDU voters....you get the same thought. But politics are so splintered up now....that getting a coalition is next to impossible.
But if you ask about the rest of this poll, and what is showing for other parties?
Well....the SPD is locked into third-place with 17 percent (gaining a point over the past week), and the AfD has hit the highest point of 2019, with 13 percent.
In a firm and happy place, the Greens are at 19 percent. Second place now nationally.
The FDP Party sits at 9 percent, and the Linke Party at 11 percent.
But here is the curious factor....this poll says that undecided voters (they might lean one way or another, but in a true 'tomorrow is election day' situation....23 percent say they aren't sure about how to vote for.
A mistake here and there, with negative problems for the CDU and SPD? You could easily have the Greens near 25 percent, and the Merkel crowd (in this 2021 national election) could be near 23 to 24 percent. This is the scenario that I continue to harp upon. Thirty years ago, folks would have laughed at the idea of a Green Party Chancellor. I would suggest that it's not that funny anymore.
The Comedian Presidency in the Ukraine
Around the end of 2014, some Ukrainian TV production folks were looking for ideas for a show. They eventually came to this crazy idea. They would create a TV comedy series where this guy (a teacher) comes up and is so overcome by the corruption of the Ukrainian government, that he runs for President, and wins. The show, premiering in October of 2015, was called 'Servant of the People'.
It ran for three seasons, and they made 51 total episodes. It was a highly popular show and they would have gone on to make several more seasons, and probably another 51 episodes on top of that, except this funny thing happened.
Somewhere in 2018....with the public chatter going on about April 2019 national election....folks got this funny idea. They would go and register a new political party out of the thin air....'Servant of the People Party'. Then they pulled the actor who played the President's part in the series out, and ran him (Volodymyr Zelensky) as President.
So as things unfolded about two months ago, the primary business ended, with no one winning a majority....including the current President of the Ukraine (Poroshenko). However in this period of the run-up.....the polling folks suggested a large number of Ukrainians were leaning toward the 'Servant of the People Party' and willing to vote for the comedian star of the show. After the primary results roll in.....the current President, and the comedy show President, are the final two.
Yesterday's election concluded. The comedy show President got around 71-percent of the vote, beating Poroshenko by roughly 45 points.
The comedian will now become President? Yes.
So what really happened here? I call this the Jon Gnarr-effect. Jon was an Icelandic comedian (a fairly good one) who decided (mostly to make a point) in 2009 to run for mayor of Reykjavik, Iceland. He formed his own party out of thin air, 'The Best Party'. Every speech was full of promises, ranging from free towels to use at the public pool, to promising to stop corruption.....mostly by participating in it out in the open. Here at the beginning of the social media period, he got attention.
On the day of the Icelandic election, the Best Party won big....six out of the 15 city council seats, and Jon won enough to become mayor of the city. For four years, he served the city, and actually didn't screw up on anything. In some ways, he proved that anyone, even a comedian, can effectively serve the public.
I think the same result came out of the Ukrainian TV series, with the public buying into the idea of comedian being President.
Would this kind of thing happen in Germany? Well....the TV journalists and intellectuals would tell you 'NO'. I can think of four German comedians (Stefan Raab, Ilka Bessin, Jan Bohmermann, and Bulent Ceylan) of public standing....that if they announced a candidacy, with the creation of their own political party.....they could take 10-percent of the national vote. It's not enough to win the Chancellor's chair, but it's enough to really sharpen up and make things impossible for the CDU or SPD to form governments if they were to win.
This Ukrainian election a shock? Maybe. But it's a general frustration with people across the globe. Regular politics has become so theatrical and fake, that no one has a problem with comedians running for office.
It ran for three seasons, and they made 51 total episodes. It was a highly popular show and they would have gone on to make several more seasons, and probably another 51 episodes on top of that, except this funny thing happened.
Somewhere in 2018....with the public chatter going on about April 2019 national election....folks got this funny idea. They would go and register a new political party out of the thin air....'Servant of the People Party'. Then they pulled the actor who played the President's part in the series out, and ran him (Volodymyr Zelensky) as President.
So as things unfolded about two months ago, the primary business ended, with no one winning a majority....including the current President of the Ukraine (Poroshenko). However in this period of the run-up.....the polling folks suggested a large number of Ukrainians were leaning toward the 'Servant of the People Party' and willing to vote for the comedian star of the show. After the primary results roll in.....the current President, and the comedy show President, are the final two.
Yesterday's election concluded. The comedy show President got around 71-percent of the vote, beating Poroshenko by roughly 45 points.
The comedian will now become President? Yes.
So what really happened here? I call this the Jon Gnarr-effect. Jon was an Icelandic comedian (a fairly good one) who decided (mostly to make a point) in 2009 to run for mayor of Reykjavik, Iceland. He formed his own party out of thin air, 'The Best Party'. Every speech was full of promises, ranging from free towels to use at the public pool, to promising to stop corruption.....mostly by participating in it out in the open. Here at the beginning of the social media period, he got attention.
On the day of the Icelandic election, the Best Party won big....six out of the 15 city council seats, and Jon won enough to become mayor of the city. For four years, he served the city, and actually didn't screw up on anything. In some ways, he proved that anyone, even a comedian, can effectively serve the public.
I think the same result came out of the Ukrainian TV series, with the public buying into the idea of comedian being President.
Would this kind of thing happen in Germany? Well....the TV journalists and intellectuals would tell you 'NO'. I can think of four German comedians (Stefan Raab, Ilka Bessin, Jan Bohmermann, and Bulent Ceylan) of public standing....that if they announced a candidacy, with the creation of their own political party.....they could take 10-percent of the national vote. It's not enough to win the Chancellor's chair, but it's enough to really sharpen up and make things impossible for the CDU or SPD to form governments if they were to win.
This Ukrainian election a shock? Maybe. But it's a general frustration with people across the globe. Regular politics has become so theatrical and fake, that no one has a problem with comedians running for office.
Sunday, April 21, 2019
The Thin Line of 1920s Germany to the 1930s Germany
Based on dozens of books that I've picked up and read over the past fifty-odd years of German history, WW II, Hitler, and European culture....I've come to a dividing line that separates 1920s Germany from 1930s Germany.
This line runs upon six key observations:
1. There's no doubt that the loss of WW I was a national period of 'sorrow' and created a wave of nation-wide depression. Prussia, the Kaiser, and the 'wunderland' had never lost a war, so this came as a shock. To be truthful, the 1920s was more of a national 'rehab' period where a lot of war vets were recovering from loss and the public sentiment that came later.
2. Adolph Hitler, with the Nazi platform, and the 'blame-chatter' was a key recovery period for Germany. Toward the late 1920, and going full-blast into the 1930s, the speeches were mesmerizing....bluffing the public into a state of euphoria and optimism. Maybe it was all fake, but it was good fake, and something that they hadn't seen since 1914.
3. Radio officially arrived in the fall of 1923 in Germany. Rarely do historians talk over the introduction period, but it's readily apparent by the early 1930s....most middle-class families had a radio, and brought a national trend into living rooms around the country....no matter where you lived in Germany.
4. The circus-like atmosphere of the Weimar Republic in this 1919 to 1930 period probably didn't help much. So much time was spent on the newest hot topic, public scandal, or threat to public stability.....that the public never had a chance to feel trust that the Republic would come to a period of safety and security.
5. Part of the euphoria goes to increased consumer use among Germans of legal/illegal drugs. Maybe not a national problem in the 1920s....but as you get to the late 1930s, it's now a public option, and people feel endowed, and 'happy' (fake happy but it's a dopey feeling).
6. Finally, lets be honest and state the obvious....the economy fell to an awful low state in 1919, and everyone felt in the 1930s that they'd gone to the other opposite side of the spectrum. Those who were in their forties and fifties had seen periods of time, and had a great appreciation of the late 1930s.
This line runs upon six key observations:
1. There's no doubt that the loss of WW I was a national period of 'sorrow' and created a wave of nation-wide depression. Prussia, the Kaiser, and the 'wunderland' had never lost a war, so this came as a shock. To be truthful, the 1920s was more of a national 'rehab' period where a lot of war vets were recovering from loss and the public sentiment that came later.
2. Adolph Hitler, with the Nazi platform, and the 'blame-chatter' was a key recovery period for Germany. Toward the late 1920, and going full-blast into the 1930s, the speeches were mesmerizing....bluffing the public into a state of euphoria and optimism. Maybe it was all fake, but it was good fake, and something that they hadn't seen since 1914.
3. Radio officially arrived in the fall of 1923 in Germany. Rarely do historians talk over the introduction period, but it's readily apparent by the early 1930s....most middle-class families had a radio, and brought a national trend into living rooms around the country....no matter where you lived in Germany.
4. The circus-like atmosphere of the Weimar Republic in this 1919 to 1930 period probably didn't help much. So much time was spent on the newest hot topic, public scandal, or threat to public stability.....that the public never had a chance to feel trust that the Republic would come to a period of safety and security.
5. Part of the euphoria goes to increased consumer use among Germans of legal/illegal drugs. Maybe not a national problem in the 1920s....but as you get to the late 1930s, it's now a public option, and people feel endowed, and 'happy' (fake happy but it's a dopey feeling).
6. Finally, lets be honest and state the obvious....the economy fell to an awful low state in 1919, and everyone felt in the 1930s that they'd gone to the other opposite side of the spectrum. Those who were in their forties and fifties had seen periods of time, and had a great appreciation of the late 1930s.
Poll Trending
I noticed this morning in German commercial news, that polling for the three German state elections (slated for the fall) has started to occur.
The three states.....Saxony (August), Brandenburg (September) and Thuringia (September). All eastern states of Germany.
The current polling, if you combined the polls for all three states? The news folks say the AfD could take 23 percent, and win, with the CDU folks a point behind (2nd place). Pushing fairly dismal numbers would be the SPD Party.
If this held true, and AfD ended up winning all three? First, it's fairly impossible to build a coalition government, because none of the other political parties would 'join' up. So the second place winner in each state (likely to be the CDU) would get the eventual nod. However, the effort would mean that it'd be the CDU, with at least two partners, and the number of deals to be made would go into dozens, and weaken the CDU initiatives offered during the campaign period.
Second, the current trend by the news media is that the AfD is spiraling downward, and this win (if it occurs in the three states) would kill off that storyline of the news media.
Finally, you come to public frustration still lingering over migration, integration and the open door policy of the past five years. If these results hold true, then public anger has yet to subside and it harms the CDU theme in 2021's national election.
The three states.....Saxony (August), Brandenburg (September) and Thuringia (September). All eastern states of Germany.
The current polling, if you combined the polls for all three states? The news folks say the AfD could take 23 percent, and win, with the CDU folks a point behind (2nd place). Pushing fairly dismal numbers would be the SPD Party.
If this held true, and AfD ended up winning all three? First, it's fairly impossible to build a coalition government, because none of the other political parties would 'join' up. So the second place winner in each state (likely to be the CDU) would get the eventual nod. However, the effort would mean that it'd be the CDU, with at least two partners, and the number of deals to be made would go into dozens, and weaken the CDU initiatives offered during the campaign period.
Second, the current trend by the news media is that the AfD is spiraling downward, and this win (if it occurs in the three states) would kill off that storyline of the news media.
Finally, you come to public frustration still lingering over migration, integration and the open door policy of the past five years. If these results hold true, then public anger has yet to subside and it harms the CDU theme in 2021's national election.
Bringing Change
Back around seventeen years ago, Switzerland came up with this idea of 'Begegnungszone' (Meeting Zones). Some will say that it originally came out of the Netherlands in the 1980s, as city planning reached a stage for 'Woonerfs'. This was supposed to be a regular street converted to less traffic, slower traffic, more trees, and increased park benches. The Swiss view....remodel the Dutch idea to have several benches in a confined area, and groups of people could meet up.
The Germans (at least out of Berlin) have picked up the idea and gone to the next model where a parking spot or two have been taken out of action, and enough benching have been put into place for twenty folks have replaced it.
The general idea? For people in the neighborhood to come out, have discussions and chats, and 'friendliness' (at least as much as the typical German can muster) would occur.
For the non-German (like us Brits and Americans), the German 'friendliness' factor is an amusing topic. It usually takes a long extended period (not just months) before Germans among strangers reach a friendly 'chat' stage. The idea with the Begegnungszone is that you'd create a outdoors spot....relaxed atmosphere, and you'd speed up the whole process.
The idea that you might eventually have a dozen Germans sitting in the Begegnungszone and discussing affordable housing, climate change, BREXIT, Putin, Trump, diesel car woes, increasing taxes, immigration, integration, bio eating habits, bad behavior kids, lateness of trains, potholes, public corruption, meddling cops, military sales to Saudi Arabia, the public TV tax, soccer scores, WW II guilt, nuke power, etc? If you ask me, this is opening up a Pandora's Box, and will eventually get the public intweened into dozens of subjects.....thinking they can control or correct political behavior/priorities.
So, if you live in Germany, and your neighbor has invited out to their favorite Begegungszone....at least you know what to expect.
The Germans (at least out of Berlin) have picked up the idea and gone to the next model where a parking spot or two have been taken out of action, and enough benching have been put into place for twenty folks have replaced it.
The general idea? For people in the neighborhood to come out, have discussions and chats, and 'friendliness' (at least as much as the typical German can muster) would occur.
For the non-German (like us Brits and Americans), the German 'friendliness' factor is an amusing topic. It usually takes a long extended period (not just months) before Germans among strangers reach a friendly 'chat' stage. The idea with the Begegnungszone is that you'd create a outdoors spot....relaxed atmosphere, and you'd speed up the whole process.
The idea that you might eventually have a dozen Germans sitting in the Begegnungszone and discussing affordable housing, climate change, BREXIT, Putin, Trump, diesel car woes, increasing taxes, immigration, integration, bio eating habits, bad behavior kids, lateness of trains, potholes, public corruption, meddling cops, military sales to Saudi Arabia, the public TV tax, soccer scores, WW II guilt, nuke power, etc? If you ask me, this is opening up a Pandora's Box, and will eventually get the public intweened into dozens of subjects.....thinking they can control or correct political behavior/priorities.
So, if you live in Germany, and your neighbor has invited out to their favorite Begegungszone....at least you know what to expect.
WW II and the Introduction of Eukodal
There is a history story laying in the mist of 'Blitzed' (this new book by Norman Ohler) that has fascinated me for a number of days, and I'll essay it out for public consumption. It concerns Hitler, and the pace (or lack of pace) of the war, in 1943.
For the German military leadership, by the end of 1942....things had gone sour. The collapse of the African front (major defeat) had occurred. In late November of 1942, the Battle of Stalingrad had occurred, with a massive loss for the German Army. Ohler lays out a great deal of data in this early period of 1943, with military figures realizing that Hitler's directives and the massive scope of the war, has made winning this virtually impossible. In some ways, it's going back to a WW I situation, where victory cannot be a end result.
So Ohler talks about this period of roughly six months in the book, where Hitler is in a declining mental state....tired....run-down....and showing what I'd consider a depressive state of mind.
All of this is leading up to this major meeting in mid-summer, with Italy's Mussolini. What Mussolini wants a peace effort with Russia....to end that war front. The US was moving into Italy, and hour-by-hour, Mussolini could sense that the war was coming to a close.
Some of Hitler's staff were concerned over this meeting, and the Fuhrer's depressive state. So enters the picture of Hitler's personal doctor, who decides at this point.....what the hell, and proceeds to introduce 'Eukodal'.
Eukodal is basically Oxycodon.
In roughly 30 minutes, the delivery of Eukodal had changed the behavior of Hitler, and turned him into a new man. In fact, for this meeting with Mussolini....the chatter went on for three hours, with Hitler dominating almost every single moment. He was pepped-up, full of character, and talking over various future victories. It was like Hitler version 2.0....the hyped-up and full of charisma type....the guy that people hadn't seen in five to ten years.
There's this decision that the doctor had to make....once this was introduced into Hitler, he was permanently attached to the shots and the upswing of behavior. The addiction was set into place.
Had this never occurred? This is a curious matter.
Without the injection, Hitler's meeting with Mussolini would probably have only lasted an hour, and little comfort could have been provided to Mussolini over the future. It's possible that a more depressed and negative Hitler would have finally concluded the unwinnable war by the end of 1943, and given signals to end the war by one way or another.
The introduction of Eukodal? It's a game-changer. As an opiod, it likely changed the extent of the war and gave Hitler fresh enthusiasm to carry on the war for almost two more years. He could show up and show the youthful turbo-charged enthusiasm that he'd delivered throughout the 1920s and 1930s. Everyone could walk out of a meeting with him and feel great things were about to happen, even in the midst of defeat.
All of this....because of the drug Eukodal.
For the German military leadership, by the end of 1942....things had gone sour. The collapse of the African front (major defeat) had occurred. In late November of 1942, the Battle of Stalingrad had occurred, with a massive loss for the German Army. Ohler lays out a great deal of data in this early period of 1943, with military figures realizing that Hitler's directives and the massive scope of the war, has made winning this virtually impossible. In some ways, it's going back to a WW I situation, where victory cannot be a end result.
So Ohler talks about this period of roughly six months in the book, where Hitler is in a declining mental state....tired....run-down....and showing what I'd consider a depressive state of mind.
All of this is leading up to this major meeting in mid-summer, with Italy's Mussolini. What Mussolini wants a peace effort with Russia....to end that war front. The US was moving into Italy, and hour-by-hour, Mussolini could sense that the war was coming to a close.
Some of Hitler's staff were concerned over this meeting, and the Fuhrer's depressive state. So enters the picture of Hitler's personal doctor, who decides at this point.....what the hell, and proceeds to introduce 'Eukodal'.
Eukodal is basically Oxycodon.
In roughly 30 minutes, the delivery of Eukodal had changed the behavior of Hitler, and turned him into a new man. In fact, for this meeting with Mussolini....the chatter went on for three hours, with Hitler dominating almost every single moment. He was pepped-up, full of character, and talking over various future victories. It was like Hitler version 2.0....the hyped-up and full of charisma type....the guy that people hadn't seen in five to ten years.
There's this decision that the doctor had to make....once this was introduced into Hitler, he was permanently attached to the shots and the upswing of behavior. The addiction was set into place.
Had this never occurred? This is a curious matter.
Without the injection, Hitler's meeting with Mussolini would probably have only lasted an hour, and little comfort could have been provided to Mussolini over the future. It's possible that a more depressed and negative Hitler would have finally concluded the unwinnable war by the end of 1943, and given signals to end the war by one way or another.
The introduction of Eukodal? It's a game-changer. As an opiod, it likely changed the extent of the war and gave Hitler fresh enthusiasm to carry on the war for almost two more years. He could show up and show the youthful turbo-charged enthusiasm that he'd delivered throughout the 1920s and 1930s. Everyone could walk out of a meeting with him and feel great things were about to happen, even in the midst of defeat.
All of this....because of the drug Eukodal.
The Army Topic
If you've sat around and viewed German news over the past three years, there's been continual chatter over the topic of right-wing enthusiasts in the Bundeswehr (the German Army). Investigative efforts, and government 'talk' have turned this into a major topic. A fair amount of this 'talk' is over anti-migration and anti-immigration subjects.
There's now talk of a more intense investigation occurring....to look at social media, behavior, and reported actions.
The potential here?
Presently, the government is suggesting dozens of right-wing extremists, who they suggest should be relieved of duty and sent home. We aren't just talking about junior enlisted, or NCOs. We are also talking about junior, and senior officers.
The bigger issue here? Well, you run into five significant problems.
1. If you made this extremism business into a 'witch-hunt', you might anger the general membership of the Army and create a wave of distrust. It wouldn't concern one or two percent.....it would eventually concern all 100-percent of the total force.
2. If right-wing extremism concerns you, wouldn't left-wing extremism also concern you?
3. Why limit this to just the Bundeswehr (Army)? Why not review the entire government, and open up a bigger Pandora's Box?
4. There's an interesting historical period toward the end of the 1920s, where secret societies existed around Berlin, with military participation....with officers quietly developing hidden agendas and behavior. You would create the ideal conditions for the return of this type of situation.
5. Finally, you come to recruitment. It's a sour topic and the Bundeswehr (Army) can barely reach their numbers now. If you had some major social media investigation prior to signing the 'kid', would this remove three-to-five percent of the current recruits and make this even more difficult to have a full force?
There's now talk of a more intense investigation occurring....to look at social media, behavior, and reported actions.
The potential here?
Presently, the government is suggesting dozens of right-wing extremists, who they suggest should be relieved of duty and sent home. We aren't just talking about junior enlisted, or NCOs. We are also talking about junior, and senior officers.
The bigger issue here? Well, you run into five significant problems.
1. If you made this extremism business into a 'witch-hunt', you might anger the general membership of the Army and create a wave of distrust. It wouldn't concern one or two percent.....it would eventually concern all 100-percent of the total force.
2. If right-wing extremism concerns you, wouldn't left-wing extremism also concern you?
3. Why limit this to just the Bundeswehr (Army)? Why not review the entire government, and open up a bigger Pandora's Box?
4. There's an interesting historical period toward the end of the 1920s, where secret societies existed around Berlin, with military participation....with officers quietly developing hidden agendas and behavior. You would create the ideal conditions for the return of this type of situation.
5. Finally, you come to recruitment. It's a sour topic and the Bundeswehr (Army) can barely reach their numbers now. If you had some major social media investigation prior to signing the 'kid', would this remove three-to-five percent of the current recruits and make this even more difficult to have a full force?
Saturday, April 20, 2019
The Difference Between 1st and 2nd Class on the Bahn (Railway)
I've ridden 95-percent of my railway trips in Germany over the years in 2nd class. The other five-percent were in first class. So the question arises occasionally, is there any real difference?
I would generally offer five observations here:
1. Rarely if ever....are all the first-class seats full. In fact, as long as it's out of some holiday period....I would suggest that only one-third to half of first class seats will ever be occupied. I have found a lot of occasions when every single seat onboard a train in second class, was filled, with dozens of people standing.
2. First class is cleaner. Part of this answer is the fact that people who ride in 2nd class will leave coffee cups or trash occasionally around (not much but enough). So it kinda stands out that first class is cleaner.
3. Rarely do you ever see damage, graffiti, or hooligans in first-class. For regional trains, graffiti is something that you notice a good bit now in 2nd class.
4. People dress slightly better. Lets not go overboard, but you won't find anyone sitting there in shorts....in first class....in the midst of July.
5. People who regularly ride first class....see it as a privilege, and would prefer to keep the company
'intact' and limit regular people from the 'exclusive' club.
I say all of this because it came up today in an news article where someone got into the first class section of the Bahn, and was challenged by a fellow rider. The challenger wanted the conductor to come immediately over and challenge guy who probably 'under-dressed' for the appropriate seating area. The rider had the ticket for first class area, and so the situation rapidly defused.
I know, it is kinda silly, but this is one of the remains of a very divided society existing.
The cost factor? This comes to an interesting point. You would typically pay around 20-percent more on the price of a first-class ticket. When the older model trains ran (the ones with windows and cabins, from the 1970s), riding the first section was nice with the larger and more luxurious seats. Since the newer models came along in the past twenty years.....the seat difference isn't that big of a deal.
I would generally offer five observations here:
1. Rarely if ever....are all the first-class seats full. In fact, as long as it's out of some holiday period....I would suggest that only one-third to half of first class seats will ever be occupied. I have found a lot of occasions when every single seat onboard a train in second class, was filled, with dozens of people standing.
2. First class is cleaner. Part of this answer is the fact that people who ride in 2nd class will leave coffee cups or trash occasionally around (not much but enough). So it kinda stands out that first class is cleaner.
3. Rarely do you ever see damage, graffiti, or hooligans in first-class. For regional trains, graffiti is something that you notice a good bit now in 2nd class.
4. People dress slightly better. Lets not go overboard, but you won't find anyone sitting there in shorts....in first class....in the midst of July.
5. People who regularly ride first class....see it as a privilege, and would prefer to keep the company
'intact' and limit regular people from the 'exclusive' club.
I say all of this because it came up today in an news article where someone got into the first class section of the Bahn, and was challenged by a fellow rider. The challenger wanted the conductor to come immediately over and challenge guy who probably 'under-dressed' for the appropriate seating area. The rider had the ticket for first class area, and so the situation rapidly defused.
I know, it is kinda silly, but this is one of the remains of a very divided society existing.
The cost factor? This comes to an interesting point. You would typically pay around 20-percent more on the price of a first-class ticket. When the older model trains ran (the ones with windows and cabins, from the 1970s), riding the first section was nice with the larger and more luxurious seats. Since the newer models came along in the past twenty years.....the seat difference isn't that big of a deal.
Autobahn Story
About a week ago, I essayed about this trend with Turkish wedding groups, which were starting autobahn (interstate) slow-downs here in Germany.....bringing them to a halt while vehicles blocked both lanes, while the groom and bride got out of their vehicle to have pictures taken on the autobahn. It's mostly been seen in northern Germany. Cops? They've hinted in very strong language that it's dangerous and illegal
Well, I was scanning through the news this morning, and this article came up from the Stuttgart region (the southern part of Germany). Yep, another Turkish wedding group.
In this case, the group did actually trigger an accident to occur. It occurred at some point in mid-afternoon yesterday (Friday).
From what the cops say, three cars seem to have avoided or dodged the effort to block the autobahn, but along came driver four, and he ran into the side/back of one of the wedding folks.
Damage? Forty-thousand Euro worth (probably totalled out both cars). Will insurance cover the guilty blocker of this episode? I have my doubts. If you knowingly do some serious driving offense, and the insurance company does a full review of the accident....they could say 'no', and just cover the liability (the other guy), and refuse to cover your car situation....then it becomes fairly painful for the car owner.
All of this leading to some national law, or state laws being drafted? It wouldn't surprise me to see at least one state drafting up serious laws and consequences to follow.
The bigger question.....why and how did this trend start? So far, the news media hasn't gotten around to this question. It's only the Turks, involves only autobahn driving, and it only involves wedding functions. Why someone would want pictures taken of a bride and groom on an autobahn is beyond my understanding.
Well, I was scanning through the news this morning, and this article came up from the Stuttgart region (the southern part of Germany). Yep, another Turkish wedding group.
In this case, the group did actually trigger an accident to occur. It occurred at some point in mid-afternoon yesterday (Friday).
From what the cops say, three cars seem to have avoided or dodged the effort to block the autobahn, but along came driver four, and he ran into the side/back of one of the wedding folks.
Damage? Forty-thousand Euro worth (probably totalled out both cars). Will insurance cover the guilty blocker of this episode? I have my doubts. If you knowingly do some serious driving offense, and the insurance company does a full review of the accident....they could say 'no', and just cover the liability (the other guy), and refuse to cover your car situation....then it becomes fairly painful for the car owner.
All of this leading to some national law, or state laws being drafted? It wouldn't surprise me to see at least one state drafting up serious laws and consequences to follow.
The bigger question.....why and how did this trend start? So far, the news media hasn't gotten around to this question. It's only the Turks, involves only autobahn driving, and it only involves wedding functions. Why someone would want pictures taken of a bride and groom on an autobahn is beyond my understanding.
This Recent CO2 Chatter by the German Government
Alright, there was some chatter going on for months (by the SPD, and Green Parties), and this week.....the Environmental Minister of Germany (Schulze, SPD) said that basically....the country needs a CO2 'tax'.
This came out of an interview, and the impression is that you'd have to curb people's attitude and take their money....in order to force 'change'.
The amount she suggested? Twenty Euro per ton, per individual. You can go and do the calculator business, and the rough numbers for an average guy is thirteen tons of CO2 per year.....meaning you'd have to come up with 260 Euro (per person). Maybe you'd just count mom and dad this way, and just say two kids amount to 100 Euro, and a family hit of 620 Euro per year for the whole family.
Now, all of this leads to a mystery equation (don't tell the Germans this). You'd have to know how a guy travels (by bike, scooter, walking, horseback, car, bus, or train). You'd have to know about his habits on vacations (if he jets off to New Zealand each year with his wife). You'd have to know about his tendency to buy bio-organic materials to consume. You'd have to know about his heat for the house (whether natural gas, coal, wood, or electrical). There's probably at least forty different variables which lead to that 13 tons of CO2, and if you were a guy in a big house, with two cars, and running an AC unit....you might be up in the 60 tons of CO2 (meaning 1,200 Euro per person).
Yes, it gets to a complicated level.
But you'd get to a level of asking the logical question.....a lot of extra money would be rolling into the government's revenue pot....billions per year across Germany. What happens to that CO2 money?
Well....Schulze says it'd be granted out as social compensation (gift money). This would solve 'medium' and 'small' incomes. The people with higher income, big cars, extensive travel, etc.....would carry the load.
What would obviously happen?
In the first year of this 'pain', you'd find a number of people complaining about the way this was measured, and the increasing cost of living. Somewhere along the second year, those with an abundant income and in the position to leave Germany (meaning to relocate)....would pack and move to Poland, Hungary, or Czech. Acceleration of the exodus would be seen by the fourth year, and the wondering 'gift-money' business would suddenly start to sputter....meaning a 30-to-40 percent cut. The travel to overseas locations? That would shift from Hamburg and Frankfurt....to Prague, Amsterdam, and Vienna. Why would you pay an extra 150 to 250 Euro for a airline ticket, to cover CO2 drama?
At this point, the people pushing the agenda would go and demand that the rest of the EU copy their amazing feat, and prevent people from escaping the CO2 tax. There, they'd find people laughing over the agenda, and refusing to bring it up as a EU shift.
The odds of this CO2 tax occurring? Right now....zero percent chance. If you had a Green Party Chancellor in Berlin, with the SPD and Linke Parties as partners, it's probably closer to a 100-percent chance.
If this sounds like some modern Robin Hood-scheme, where the money got exchanged from the wealthy to the poor? Well, that's the chief issue. It's almost like an artificial recession, to be created out of thin air. But here's the thing, if CO2 was your big thing, and the hotest problem to be dealt with, then you'd go and make houses and appliances as modern as possible, and lessen the tax rate (19-percent) on those items to zero....convincing people to renew their freezers, washers, dryers, and heating systems. Yet you don't see that type of problem-solving....it's more along the lines of problem-inventing.
This came out of an interview, and the impression is that you'd have to curb people's attitude and take their money....in order to force 'change'.
The amount she suggested? Twenty Euro per ton, per individual. You can go and do the calculator business, and the rough numbers for an average guy is thirteen tons of CO2 per year.....meaning you'd have to come up with 260 Euro (per person). Maybe you'd just count mom and dad this way, and just say two kids amount to 100 Euro, and a family hit of 620 Euro per year for the whole family.
Now, all of this leads to a mystery equation (don't tell the Germans this). You'd have to know how a guy travels (by bike, scooter, walking, horseback, car, bus, or train). You'd have to know about his habits on vacations (if he jets off to New Zealand each year with his wife). You'd have to know about his tendency to buy bio-organic materials to consume. You'd have to know about his heat for the house (whether natural gas, coal, wood, or electrical). There's probably at least forty different variables which lead to that 13 tons of CO2, and if you were a guy in a big house, with two cars, and running an AC unit....you might be up in the 60 tons of CO2 (meaning 1,200 Euro per person).
Yes, it gets to a complicated level.
But you'd get to a level of asking the logical question.....a lot of extra money would be rolling into the government's revenue pot....billions per year across Germany. What happens to that CO2 money?
Well....Schulze says it'd be granted out as social compensation (gift money). This would solve 'medium' and 'small' incomes. The people with higher income, big cars, extensive travel, etc.....would carry the load.
What would obviously happen?
In the first year of this 'pain', you'd find a number of people complaining about the way this was measured, and the increasing cost of living. Somewhere along the second year, those with an abundant income and in the position to leave Germany (meaning to relocate)....would pack and move to Poland, Hungary, or Czech. Acceleration of the exodus would be seen by the fourth year, and the wondering 'gift-money' business would suddenly start to sputter....meaning a 30-to-40 percent cut. The travel to overseas locations? That would shift from Hamburg and Frankfurt....to Prague, Amsterdam, and Vienna. Why would you pay an extra 150 to 250 Euro for a airline ticket, to cover CO2 drama?
At this point, the people pushing the agenda would go and demand that the rest of the EU copy their amazing feat, and prevent people from escaping the CO2 tax. There, they'd find people laughing over the agenda, and refusing to bring it up as a EU shift.
The odds of this CO2 tax occurring? Right now....zero percent chance. If you had a Green Party Chancellor in Berlin, with the SPD and Linke Parties as partners, it's probably closer to a 100-percent chance.
If this sounds like some modern Robin Hood-scheme, where the money got exchanged from the wealthy to the poor? Well, that's the chief issue. It's almost like an artificial recession, to be created out of thin air. But here's the thing, if CO2 was your big thing, and the hotest problem to be dealt with, then you'd go and make houses and appliances as modern as possible, and lessen the tax rate (19-percent) on those items to zero....convincing people to renew their freezers, washers, dryers, and heating systems. Yet you don't see that type of problem-solving....it's more along the lines of problem-inventing.
Another German 'Truth' Commission?
If you follow German news this week, there was a fair amount of chatter from the left-wing folks over the idea of a committee or commission, to review the actions carried out with DDR (former East German) companies, and how the actions of the past thirty years....with over 30,000 DDR-government-run operations fell from 'grace' as privatization came to be the norm.
The landscape in the eastern half of Germany, since unification....is 'littered' with people who are long-term unemployed, and the Linke Party wants to resolve what happened, and basically who to blame.
The term 'compensation' or 'reparation'? Well, yeah....that's where this commission would go off and admit German government mistakes, and basically pay people off.
The billions spent by the Kohl, Schroder and Merkel governments? Well....some accusations have been spoken (almost monthly) over the wasteful nature of the money that went into eastern Germany to repair or upgrade infrastructure. A total of 1.3-trillion Euro (yes....roughly 1.7-trillion dollars) went there and some folks are embarrassed over the lack of change, or the wasteful projects funded.
Just bringing up BER (the new Berlin Airport) is now a difficult topic for politicians to handle. We are now working on ninth-year of overtime work to make the new airport operational. For 2019? Zero chance, it'll open, and it's possible it might go into 2021 before planes ever land there.
Would the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Merkel approve such a commission or committee? No. If you open up this Pandora's Box....it means you have to pay someone down the road some kind of compensation for incompetence of government officials. You could be talking about 100,000 Euro per adult, to make things right.
But all of this brings up negativity and anger over the climate existing. For Linke Party, it's positive in a campaign season.
The landscape in the eastern half of Germany, since unification....is 'littered' with people who are long-term unemployed, and the Linke Party wants to resolve what happened, and basically who to blame.
The term 'compensation' or 'reparation'? Well, yeah....that's where this commission would go off and admit German government mistakes, and basically pay people off.
The billions spent by the Kohl, Schroder and Merkel governments? Well....some accusations have been spoken (almost monthly) over the wasteful nature of the money that went into eastern Germany to repair or upgrade infrastructure. A total of 1.3-trillion Euro (yes....roughly 1.7-trillion dollars) went there and some folks are embarrassed over the lack of change, or the wasteful projects funded.
Just bringing up BER (the new Berlin Airport) is now a difficult topic for politicians to handle. We are now working on ninth-year of overtime work to make the new airport operational. For 2019? Zero chance, it'll open, and it's possible it might go into 2021 before planes ever land there.
Would the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Merkel approve such a commission or committee? No. If you open up this Pandora's Box....it means you have to pay someone down the road some kind of compensation for incompetence of government officials. You could be talking about 100,000 Euro per adult, to make things right.
But all of this brings up negativity and anger over the climate existing. For Linke Party, it's positive in a campaign season.
Finland Chatter
Recently, the government of Finland 'fell', and an election had to be held to reset the political scene, and hopefully find a path out of their current 'issue'. This essay will lay out the basic problems, and the impossibility of curing that 'issue'.
When you go and define a stable or unstable country in Europe today (versus forty years ago), one of the major issues is ageing/shrinking population numbers. Some nations are sustaining themselves to some degree, and others (like Finland) are in serious jeopardy.
If you use the Finland national statistics agency numbers....around a quarter of the population (5.5-million) will by 2030....be over the age of 65. Ten years after that point, the number of Octogenarians (age 80 or more) is supposed to be near half-a-million in 2040. You can do a trend analysis sheet and basically say that this one single problem is forcing politicians to rethink a whole bunch of things, and the solutions don't look that great.
Openness to immigration? Well, yes and no. The numbers (if you use 2017 data) suggest that around six to seven percent of the population are non-Finn. The bulk? A big chunk are from Estonia and Russia. It is true over the past five years that various immigrants have come from Iraq, Pakistan, Iran, and Syria (probably in the range of 28,000). There's well over 30 cultures who've settled into Finland (1,500 Americans live there as well).
If you bring up this issue of migration, Finns will generally say that they came to Helsinki, and the other three major cities of the country (Tampere, Turku, Oulu). Once you get 150 miles from Helsinki, jobs are limited, and no one really cares to migrate or settle into a highly rural area.
So those populations in the center or north of Finland, are in a declining situation, growing older, and they need real healthcare.
What the politicians are attempting to do (doesn't matter which party is chatting), is create some 'fair' level of healthcare for those beyond the four major cities of Finland, and this situation revolves around in a circle because you'd need a massive amount of money to create a fair and equal healthcare system.
Now, if they weren't part of the EU....they'd go and create public debt of an extreme variety (borrowing against the future). But those funny EU folks made up a couple of financial rules to prevent enlarging public debt. The magic number often brought up? There's a four-percent difference in GDP value with the difference between government expenditures, and projected tax revenue.
Resolving this? You basically come to three solutions:
1. You raise taxes even more (sales tax in Finland is now 24-percent, and the income tax is regarded as one of the highest in Europe). This might trigger a recession, but they've made so many promises about equal care, that it may not matter.
2. You go and find some way of raising production or commerce. But because of taxes and limited commerce over the past decades, it's highly unlikely you can invent this. Also, don't bother suggesting a Finn-Trump.
3. You just renege on the equal healthcare promise.
My humble prediction? If one looks over the next decade, the political 'ballroom dance' being conducted, the declining public numbers, the lessening of population in rural areas....then I'd suggest the following four things to occur:
1. A significant recession period will likely be part of the landscape.
2. The recession (confined mostly to Finland) will 'invite' newer migrants and immigrants to pack up and leave....triggering a number of problems which politicians can't really solve.
3. Younger Finns will give up on the rural areas, and some towns (particularly in the north) will be 50-percent age 50 or more.
4. Racialized politics will be seen, and feared by the intellectual-class. Ranging from far-left to far-right....everyone will be seeking solutions with no real valid potential for success.
So if you were looking for a landscape with political intrigue, economic woes around the corner, and a healthcare system which cannot ever be equal for all citizens....come to Finland. Strangely enough, it has been one of the countries where happiness is measured on an impressive scale.
When you go and define a stable or unstable country in Europe today (versus forty years ago), one of the major issues is ageing/shrinking population numbers. Some nations are sustaining themselves to some degree, and others (like Finland) are in serious jeopardy.
If you use the Finland national statistics agency numbers....around a quarter of the population (5.5-million) will by 2030....be over the age of 65. Ten years after that point, the number of Octogenarians (age 80 or more) is supposed to be near half-a-million in 2040. You can do a trend analysis sheet and basically say that this one single problem is forcing politicians to rethink a whole bunch of things, and the solutions don't look that great.
Openness to immigration? Well, yes and no. The numbers (if you use 2017 data) suggest that around six to seven percent of the population are non-Finn. The bulk? A big chunk are from Estonia and Russia. It is true over the past five years that various immigrants have come from Iraq, Pakistan, Iran, and Syria (probably in the range of 28,000). There's well over 30 cultures who've settled into Finland (1,500 Americans live there as well).
If you bring up this issue of migration, Finns will generally say that they came to Helsinki, and the other three major cities of the country (Tampere, Turku, Oulu). Once you get 150 miles from Helsinki, jobs are limited, and no one really cares to migrate or settle into a highly rural area.
So those populations in the center or north of Finland, are in a declining situation, growing older, and they need real healthcare.
What the politicians are attempting to do (doesn't matter which party is chatting), is create some 'fair' level of healthcare for those beyond the four major cities of Finland, and this situation revolves around in a circle because you'd need a massive amount of money to create a fair and equal healthcare system.
Now, if they weren't part of the EU....they'd go and create public debt of an extreme variety (borrowing against the future). But those funny EU folks made up a couple of financial rules to prevent enlarging public debt. The magic number often brought up? There's a four-percent difference in GDP value with the difference between government expenditures, and projected tax revenue.
Resolving this? You basically come to three solutions:
1. You raise taxes even more (sales tax in Finland is now 24-percent, and the income tax is regarded as one of the highest in Europe). This might trigger a recession, but they've made so many promises about equal care, that it may not matter.
2. You go and find some way of raising production or commerce. But because of taxes and limited commerce over the past decades, it's highly unlikely you can invent this. Also, don't bother suggesting a Finn-Trump.
3. You just renege on the equal healthcare promise.
My humble prediction? If one looks over the next decade, the political 'ballroom dance' being conducted, the declining public numbers, the lessening of population in rural areas....then I'd suggest the following four things to occur:
1. A significant recession period will likely be part of the landscape.
2. The recession (confined mostly to Finland) will 'invite' newer migrants and immigrants to pack up and leave....triggering a number of problems which politicians can't really solve.
3. Younger Finns will give up on the rural areas, and some towns (particularly in the north) will be 50-percent age 50 or more.
4. Racialized politics will be seen, and feared by the intellectual-class. Ranging from far-left to far-right....everyone will be seeking solutions with no real valid potential for success.
So if you were looking for a landscape with political intrigue, economic woes around the corner, and a healthcare system which cannot ever be equal for all citizens....come to Finland. Strangely enough, it has been one of the countries where happiness is measured on an impressive scale.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Berlin and Numbers Story
Back around thirty years in Berlin, there was a planning effort over the physical size of the Reichstag building 'group' area (where they all assemble) for the Bundestag.
X-amount of space was allocated and everyone felt 'safe' about the size of the assembly area.
At that point in time, the number figured for the assembly area was 598 individuals. All was fine in the original first couple of years. Then some changes were to occur, and they went to what is today 709 individuals who sit there. For the building crew, this has meant a fair amount of planning and rebuilding of the assembly area.
There's now talk that they will get to a fair number of Bundestag members in the 2021 election, that will go above 800 (some even suggest in the 850 range). A problem? Just about everyone now agrees (from all parties) that this structure won't work, and that downsizing is necessary. But the question goes to....how?
Adding to this....the salary, support structure, housing payments, etc.....all connect to this growing issue.
The odd feature to this issue is that there are only 401 counties/districts in existence in Germany today (107 of them urbanized or metropolitan cities, and the remaining 294 being mostly rural counties or non-urban locations). You would think that one single representative from each county would be the norm, but none of the parties can agree to that logic. Everyone wants some angle to states themselves (16 of them) to exist as a layer on top of that.
Fear of a county by county ballot measure? With this, you'd have over-representation by ruralized areas, and less-so by urbanized areas. The Greens would suffer greatly by this measure because most of their voting trends lead back to metropolitan areas.
So many Bundestag members, that they are getting in each other's way? Well, no one has said this yet, but you have to wonder if 800-odd members would create a bigger problem in true representation. There might be some who simply show up.....sip through coffee for an hour or two, and just disappear off into some local pub for the afternoon. At some point, I expect some fake reality show to start up on German TV where four fake party guys appear at some pub every afternoon to talk over fake German politics and pretend to get serious about it, while sipping down several beers.
The odds of resolution? Even if the courts order them to this repair, then what? You'd have to get a majority of folks to agree to downsize by at least 10-percent as a minimum (25-percent probably would be a better goal), and it's hard to see that being accomplished.
X-amount of space was allocated and everyone felt 'safe' about the size of the assembly area.
At that point in time, the number figured for the assembly area was 598 individuals. All was fine in the original first couple of years. Then some changes were to occur, and they went to what is today 709 individuals who sit there. For the building crew, this has meant a fair amount of planning and rebuilding of the assembly area.
There's now talk that they will get to a fair number of Bundestag members in the 2021 election, that will go above 800 (some even suggest in the 850 range). A problem? Just about everyone now agrees (from all parties) that this structure won't work, and that downsizing is necessary. But the question goes to....how?
Adding to this....the salary, support structure, housing payments, etc.....all connect to this growing issue.
The odd feature to this issue is that there are only 401 counties/districts in existence in Germany today (107 of them urbanized or metropolitan cities, and the remaining 294 being mostly rural counties or non-urban locations). You would think that one single representative from each county would be the norm, but none of the parties can agree to that logic. Everyone wants some angle to states themselves (16 of them) to exist as a layer on top of that.
Fear of a county by county ballot measure? With this, you'd have over-representation by ruralized areas, and less-so by urbanized areas. The Greens would suffer greatly by this measure because most of their voting trends lead back to metropolitan areas.
So many Bundestag members, that they are getting in each other's way? Well, no one has said this yet, but you have to wonder if 800-odd members would create a bigger problem in true representation. There might be some who simply show up.....sip through coffee for an hour or two, and just disappear off into some local pub for the afternoon. At some point, I expect some fake reality show to start up on German TV where four fake party guys appear at some pub every afternoon to talk over fake German politics and pretend to get serious about it, while sipping down several beers.
The odds of resolution? Even if the courts order them to this repair, then what? You'd have to get a majority of folks to agree to downsize by at least 10-percent as a minimum (25-percent probably would be a better goal), and it's hard to see that being accomplished.
Update on the Greek Reparations Story
Well, you had to be a bit surprised.
All this chatter in recent weeks in Germany about Berlin (the city) going and expropriating or seizing privately-owned apartment buildings, and making them city-owned property.....thus setting the rent at what people think is fair......is pretty much what Greece came out to suggest today.
For the Greece reparations deal....they (the Parliament) are suggesting to go and seize German-government property (yes, expropriating).
Kinda amusing, since the Germans brought up this topic internally in Berlin, and the basic idea is flashing around all of German major cities now. So Greece said this is a fine idea, and we will copy it.
Now, you can ask.....just how much German government property could they go and grab in Greece, and I think it's pretty much limited to a couple of Goethe Institut buildings around the country. The embassy and the embassy housing....would be against international law.
However, this brings up an odd topic, could Greece go and enter into the EU court system, and demand German state-owned properties within Germany....be expropriated/seized, and given to Greece in terms of ownership? 250 to 300 billion Euro worth?
If the Berlin authorities reach the stage where their expropriation game works.....why couldn't the Greeks go and copy it.....seizing property as well?
One might wonder if this has opened up a can of worms, and Germany has to lay out some harsh chatter and hire up some five-star lawyers to prevent some public 'joke' from occurring.
The other angle to this whole game? Well....if you peeved off enough Germans about Greek vacations, you could see a 10-to-20 percent cut in Greek vacation income. Germans spend a fair amount of money on Greece tours.
Might be worth watching over the next six months.
All this chatter in recent weeks in Germany about Berlin (the city) going and expropriating or seizing privately-owned apartment buildings, and making them city-owned property.....thus setting the rent at what people think is fair......is pretty much what Greece came out to suggest today.
For the Greece reparations deal....they (the Parliament) are suggesting to go and seize German-government property (yes, expropriating).
Kinda amusing, since the Germans brought up this topic internally in Berlin, and the basic idea is flashing around all of German major cities now. So Greece said this is a fine idea, and we will copy it.
Now, you can ask.....just how much German government property could they go and grab in Greece, and I think it's pretty much limited to a couple of Goethe Institut buildings around the country. The embassy and the embassy housing....would be against international law.
However, this brings up an odd topic, could Greece go and enter into the EU court system, and demand German state-owned properties within Germany....be expropriated/seized, and given to Greece in terms of ownership? 250 to 300 billion Euro worth?
If the Berlin authorities reach the stage where their expropriation game works.....why couldn't the Greeks go and copy it.....seizing property as well?
One might wonder if this has opened up a can of worms, and Germany has to lay out some harsh chatter and hire up some five-star lawyers to prevent some public 'joke' from occurring.
The other angle to this whole game? Well....if you peeved off enough Germans about Greek vacations, you could see a 10-to-20 percent cut in Greek vacation income. Germans spend a fair amount of money on Greece tours.
Might be worth watching over the next six months.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Greece Story
I was sitting and watching the early morning German public TV news this morning, and a piece came on....detailing the new Greece agenda....demanding reparations from Germany for war-crimes committed in WW II.
Amount? 290 billion Euro (roughly 350 billion US dollars). Yep, a fair chunk of money.
The angle on this? It's written into a bill format and decided upon by Greek parliament in Athens. The Greeks wants the nation to use all diplomatic talk and legal acts to make this happen.
The opposite angle to the story? Well, it gets to being complicated.
In the spring of 1941, the Greeks were invaded by both the Germans and the Italians. No one denies this part of the story, but the Italians are rarely if ever mentioned in Greek history today. If you go by the historians part of the story, roughly 50,000 Greeks 'starved' in this invasion period, and 50,000 Greek troops were killed.
The Germans by this point, had a bit of a financial problem brewing....the economy was heading south. They (the Germans) came to the Greek National Bank and found it fairly 'full', and instead of grabbing the sum of money (which you would expect), they arranged for a loan....interest-free....and this was all detailed out on paperwork. I know, it sounds funny that they made this into loan instead of grabbing the money, but that's what happened.
In today's money....it was around 11-billion Euro. But let's remember....this was all interest-free.
Has this sum ever been paid back? No. But let's remember....it's a loan on paper, and it's strictly between the German government and the Greek National Bank (not the Greek government), and it's interest-free, so that sum never increased. Oddly, the Greek National Bank has never pursued the money, which you'd ask a lot of questions over, and no one can explain the lack of interest. Some suggest that a fair chunk of this money was Jewish money which had shifted in the 1920s/1930s from Germany into Greece, but there's no real evidence to prove that story.
Even if you did offer to pay the money back....the question arises, do the share-holders of the Greek National Bank of 1941 get the money, or does the government of Greece get the money?
So you are left with the damages and lives lost funding. In 1960, West Germany (not DDR) came back to the Greeks and offered up funding the damages caused and the lives lost. A sum was agreed upon and paid out. Most of those folks involved in the 1960 episode are long-gone now.
So this new bill? In some ways, the Greeks are trying to forget the 1960 episode, and pretend that there is a new bill in existence. If they were truly serious about this? Well, you'd go through the EU court system, and they'd eventually pull up the 1960 West Germany-Greek settlement, and ask for details on why that sum wasn't now respected. This explains why the EU court isn't being used.
The Greeks are mostly out to pump up political agendas within the country and give faint hope that billions of Euro will dished out by the Germans.
The sad part of this story? The average German is reading over this story, and frustrated about the whole thing (which they themselves had no part of in 1940 to 1945), and when it comes to vacation-planning, Greece is crossed-out as a potential vacation spot.
So this will be great cafe chatter in Greece for the next year, as they talk over the billions potentially coming in, and anger that the Germans simply aren't paying off their bill.
Amount? 290 billion Euro (roughly 350 billion US dollars). Yep, a fair chunk of money.
The angle on this? It's written into a bill format and decided upon by Greek parliament in Athens. The Greeks wants the nation to use all diplomatic talk and legal acts to make this happen.
The opposite angle to the story? Well, it gets to being complicated.
In the spring of 1941, the Greeks were invaded by both the Germans and the Italians. No one denies this part of the story, but the Italians are rarely if ever mentioned in Greek history today. If you go by the historians part of the story, roughly 50,000 Greeks 'starved' in this invasion period, and 50,000 Greek troops were killed.
The Germans by this point, had a bit of a financial problem brewing....the economy was heading south. They (the Germans) came to the Greek National Bank and found it fairly 'full', and instead of grabbing the sum of money (which you would expect), they arranged for a loan....interest-free....and this was all detailed out on paperwork. I know, it sounds funny that they made this into loan instead of grabbing the money, but that's what happened.
In today's money....it was around 11-billion Euro. But let's remember....this was all interest-free.
Has this sum ever been paid back? No. But let's remember....it's a loan on paper, and it's strictly between the German government and the Greek National Bank (not the Greek government), and it's interest-free, so that sum never increased. Oddly, the Greek National Bank has never pursued the money, which you'd ask a lot of questions over, and no one can explain the lack of interest. Some suggest that a fair chunk of this money was Jewish money which had shifted in the 1920s/1930s from Germany into Greece, but there's no real evidence to prove that story.
Even if you did offer to pay the money back....the question arises, do the share-holders of the Greek National Bank of 1941 get the money, or does the government of Greece get the money?
So you are left with the damages and lives lost funding. In 1960, West Germany (not DDR) came back to the Greeks and offered up funding the damages caused and the lives lost. A sum was agreed upon and paid out. Most of those folks involved in the 1960 episode are long-gone now.
So this new bill? In some ways, the Greeks are trying to forget the 1960 episode, and pretend that there is a new bill in existence. If they were truly serious about this? Well, you'd go through the EU court system, and they'd eventually pull up the 1960 West Germany-Greek settlement, and ask for details on why that sum wasn't now respected. This explains why the EU court isn't being used.
The Greeks are mostly out to pump up political agendas within the country and give faint hope that billions of Euro will dished out by the Germans.
The sad part of this story? The average German is reading over this story, and frustrated about the whole thing (which they themselves had no part of in 1940 to 1945), and when it comes to vacation-planning, Greece is crossed-out as a potential vacation spot.
So this will be great cafe chatter in Greece for the next year, as they talk over the billions potentially coming in, and anger that the Germans simply aren't paying off their bill.
A Housing Story
In most metropolitan areas of Germany, local folks will tell you of a affordable housing crisis. They want the government to do 'something', and that 'something' is always a question-mark.
It came up in regional news in my area that over in Hanau, after the US Army had packed up and left.....they'd left an entire housing suburb. Yes, roughly 22 apartment buildings, which you can figure each had sixteen apartments (2 and 3 bedrooms) in it. This was a fairly modern situation, built in the last thirty years. A bit of minor renovation, and all of these could have easily become affordable housing units.
Well....the city stepped in and deemed the entire area around the housing area as an industrial-use park, and so the housing couldn't stay. Yes, they are demolishing the twenty-two buildings.
Locals just sit there in amazement. Here's two-hundred-plus apartments....easily qualifying as affordable situations, and could be easily fitted into a working-class situation, but doomed because of the city planned use for the entire former US Army area.
This is part of the battle that working-class (lower class) people are facing....in that the city governments aren't really working in their favor.
It came up in regional news in my area that over in Hanau, after the US Army had packed up and left.....they'd left an entire housing suburb. Yes, roughly 22 apartment buildings, which you can figure each had sixteen apartments (2 and 3 bedrooms) in it. This was a fairly modern situation, built in the last thirty years. A bit of minor renovation, and all of these could have easily become affordable housing units.
Well....the city stepped in and deemed the entire area around the housing area as an industrial-use park, and so the housing couldn't stay. Yes, they are demolishing the twenty-two buildings.
Locals just sit there in amazement. Here's two-hundred-plus apartments....easily qualifying as affordable situations, and could be easily fitted into a working-class situation, but doomed because of the city planned use for the entire former US Army area.
This is part of the battle that working-class (lower class) people are facing....in that the city governments aren't really working in their favor.
Tasers in Germany?
For roughly two years, there's been this 'test' and evaluation going on, with Hessen police (mostly in Frankfurt and Offenbach) with tasers. While it's been standard equipment in most metropolitan US cities, it's been a long process here in Germany.
Training requirements had to be established, and scenarios had to be developed for the police to know the right occasion to use the tasers.
Here in the local region, one example was a raid where a guy had been acting irrationally and threatening people. A brief talk by the police with the guy, went nowhere. So they tasered the guy, and ended the stand-off.
A negativity campaign against the introduction? Well, various political groups hint that it's dangerous and could potentially kill a guy. Police will often point out that in some stand-off, where the guy is armed with a knife and acting irrationally....the taser makes perfect sense, and ensures no policeman has to shoot the guy, or get stabbed.
So with the test now concluded, you an expect German metropolitan police around the nation to get trained/certified, and armed with tasers over the next couple of years.
Training requirements had to be established, and scenarios had to be developed for the police to know the right occasion to use the tasers.
Here in the local region, one example was a raid where a guy had been acting irrationally and threatening people. A brief talk by the police with the guy, went nowhere. So they tasered the guy, and ended the stand-off.
A negativity campaign against the introduction? Well, various political groups hint that it's dangerous and could potentially kill a guy. Police will often point out that in some stand-off, where the guy is armed with a knife and acting irrationally....the taser makes perfect sense, and ensures no policeman has to shoot the guy, or get stabbed.
So with the test now concluded, you an expect German metropolitan police around the nation to get trained/certified, and armed with tasers over the next couple of years.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
The German 'Green' Years: 2021-2025
This is an essay where I cover the potential of the German Green Party achieving enough votes in the September 2021 German national election, to form a government under their party (with the SPD Party and Linke Party) as the coalition. The Chancellor would be Robert Habeck (assuming the current trends hold).
So these are the fifteen areas that I'll talk about with impact over this four-year period, and the chaos likely to follow:
1. Roads, Infrastructure, and Bans. Various measures will occur in this period. Leading them and shocking a fair number of Germans, will be the introduction of a speed limit on German autobahns. I expect at least two German states pushing back (Bavaria and Hessen), and likely able to keep unlimited speeds still on their autobahn structure. The majority of states will see a limit established.
The banning of diesel cars in the inner cities will continue, and taxation will increase on diesel fuel sold in the country.
Bicycle trails will see significant increases in funding, with major 'roads' established from city to city.
Funding allowances will be created for cities to eliminate 'car-streets' in major cities (like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, etc). Some of these streets will be limited to just bicycles, walkers, and battery-powered scooters.
2. Elimination of military weapon exports. I tend to expect most every company existing in Germany today to be told that the current contracts will be the last ones, and no weapons will be built or supplied beyond EU borders as 2021 comes to a conclusion. This will result in various companies evaluating the idea of leaving Germany (relocating to Poland, Czech, or Hungary). By the end of 2022, various jobs will be announced as ending...with companies offering the chance for some of the German employees to relocate. The Bundestag will display anger over the loss of jobs and the companies will respond that they didn't make these 'rules'.
3. The 'Greta-Patrol'. Because of the Fridays for the Future campaign, a significant number of kids will have been 'brain-washed' to certain political agendas. An effort will occur with the Greens dominating national politics....to give the 16-year-old kids the right to vote. All of this effort will lead to numerous kids being left-agenda types. Teachers will begin to realize by 2020 that they've lost control of the classrooms.
At some point, in 2021....the 'Greta-Patrol' kids will force classroom temperatures to be lessened (to save energy), and that only organic type meal options will be offered. The movement of kids of well-to-do parents....to private schools will ramp up, with 10-percent of the current public school system leaving. Some teachers will question the political stance of students and the directives handed down via Berlin's leadership, determining that it's time to forward resumes to countries like Australia, Canada, or the US.
By the end of 2022, at least one German state is investigating bullying and peer-pressure complaints over the 'Greta-Patrol', where non-enthusiasts of the agenda are being pushed around. A commission will be formed, and finds that complaints are legit. Warnings are given to schools, and the topic then becomes a public forum episode via television. By the summer of 2023, there's almost half of the German population who believe this movement is out of control, and that harsh measures need to occur.
Somewhere between 2022 and 2023, a word will be invented for a new phenomenon noticed in German schools. It'll refer to a 'save-the-world' anxiety/stress issue. Kids are now showing up at mental clinics...some as young as eight years old....having panic attacks and unable to cope with stress. Their principal problem? The 'Greta-Patrol' is dumping doom and despair commentary almost daily, and some kids can't handle the stress involved. Rehab centers are being created where kids go for a two-week stay to 'chill-out'. It's eventually called 'Kur-for-Kids', and doctors from around the world come to observe the German phonemum.
The 'Greta-Patrol' doubles down, offering a two-week boot camp each summer, where you get intense doses of living off the grid, making your own sandals, converting to vegan lifestyles, and learning to give up personal luxury items. In 2022, over 5,000 German kids attend the boot camp, and the number triples in 2023.
4. Public Transportation. Because of the banning efforts in 2021/2022, an enormous increase in public transportation starts to take place in major cities (Berlin, Frankfurt, Koln, Stuttgart, etc). The effect? They (the tram, subway, and buslines) simply don't have the assets or capability to transport this number of passengers.
An effort will occur to create a national ticket for all Germans (students, workers, retirees, etc)....the 365-Euro ticket. The ticket (demanded by the Linke Party and Greens) will be eventually found to be shorting the transportation sector, and by 12th month of this new program....it'll double to 730 Euro for adults and retirees. The money pouring into the public system? Based on requirements, it simply won't be enough.
Lateness to work issues? By summer of 2022, a number of companies around top dozen cities of Germany are complaining that this massive effort to get everyone to work via public transportation simply isn't working.
5. Tax increases. To pay for all of the promised 'services', most Germans will be shocked by the spring of 2022 to find various new created taxes. Gas taxes will increase by 10 to 20 percent, enticing people to switch to battery-cars. Cigarette taxes will double, with customs officers reporting significant black-market smokes now being imported into the country.
A wealth tax will be created for those making over x-amount (my guess is 200,000 Euro a year). Along with this will come a super-wealth tax (for those over one-million a year). All of this will work to persuade people to move/relocate outside of the country. Various companies will move their headquarters beyond the German border, and it'll be a highly discussed matter by the end of 2022. Soccer teams will discuss the impact with the wealth taxes, and that big-name players will be asking to be traded to non-German teams. By the end of 2025, all of the top 50 big-name players in Europe will be outside of Germany.
6. Grocery operations. Rules and regulations will start to form over farm production, eliminating the use of nitrates, pesticides, insecticides, etc. Bavaria, Hessen, and the Pflaz region will fight Berlin leadership all the way to the courts, and find that half of the regulations will be allowed to stand. A production 'slow-down' will start to appear by the spring of 2023, with Chancellor Habeck meeting with various farmers and associations....trying to find some middle-ground.
Germans will walk into grocery stores.....surprised that they mostly have non-German vegetables/fruit, all-year-round now. Pricing? Anywhere between 10 and 40 percent more than they pay now. A commision will be appointed by Chancellor Habeck to find out why grocery prices escalated, and why German farmers are not able to provide at the level of the past.
7. Electrical consumption will increase, with consumers fairly surprised over escalating prices. A Green idea will come out, suggesting 'punishment fees' for those consuming a hefty amount of power each year. More and more people will be placing solar panels on their roof, to avoid heavy taxation or more cost for their electrical usage.
8. An effort to bring more and more electrical buses to German cities will backfire. Buses will not be able to provide the number of hours expected with the normal diesel buses.
9. Within a hundred days of the beginning of the 'Green' years, it's very likely that a German letter will go over to the US, announcing the end of the NSA-to-Germany relationship, and asking for the personnel/equipment to be removed. The US will likely cooperate, but quickly find that Poland is very happy to enter into a new relationship here, and everything moves there.
Shortly after that episode, challenges to the US basing will occur, and the US will move to vacate all German basing by the end of 2023. NATO will start to dissolve by mid-summer of 2023. Part of this trend will be blamed on Trump (elected again in 2020), but a great deal of this will revolve around the Green Party vision of Germany in the future. US troops? Some will end up in Poland, as that relationship is improved and changed.
Part of this change will involve cutting German military personnel by 25-percent by 2023, and most foreign missions will all end by early 2024. German military expenditures? The budget will drop by one-third over the 2022/2023 period.
10. Refugees, immigrants, and asylum seekers will find an open-door with the Green Party leadership. The numbers will escalate to 350,000 to 400,000 coming into Germany yearly in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Integration issues will be noted in social media sites, with the public news journalists refusing to discuss problems or issues. Public perception will negative, driving a great deal of CDU normal voters over to the AfD. The election in 2025? It will result in public confidence with the Greens dropping like a rock.
11. Public Television. Roughly a year after the Green victory, public sentiment has centered on the pro-Green government in a negative way. Some will start suggesting it resembles the former GDR government of East Germany (the Communists). The public TV crowd (ZDF and ARD) go into 'defensive' posture and try to convince the public that this simply isn't true. A social media efforts starts up with a 'quit-the-TV-tax' stance. Over fifty-thousand Germans attempt to get out of the TV tax by the end of 2022.
By the end of 2023, a code-phrase will have been invented and former DDR phrases will be often linked to TV news and chatter. At least five moderators/journalists will quit by the end of 2023....coming to agree that some type of effort is being pursued by the leadership of public TV.
12. Robert Habeck. Upon becoming Chancellor, his style will be cheerful, non-suit (no tie), and 'we-can-be-part-of-a-great-future'. He will approach the youth of Germany with the idea of 'giving-up' something....thus feeling good about it. Different campaigns will come and go, like giving up sugar-drinks, or giving up cell-phones at school, or giving up new clothing (used clothing will go into style). Habeck will try to use this new dynamic on neighboring countries, and find that they are mostly laughing over the change in government. Almost on a daily basis, Habeck in the first year is appearing on various TV shows and seems to be continually interviewed. Various TV journalists quote Habeck on a continual basis. By the end of 2024 (3 years into the Chancellor's job), Habeck's public approval has slipped a great deal, and over three-quarters of the country want him to limit his appearances to just once or twice a month on TV (being overdosed with the character factor).
13. Public affordable housing. Within sixty days of assuming the leadership function, the new government has an agenda.....finding 18 billion Euro to provide as an interest-free loan to the city of Berlin....enabling them to seize public housing property from private companies and settle via the court system. The courts swing into action. In six months, half of the properties on the list have been taken. Challenges via the courts come up, and move toward the national court.
As the weeks go by, other cities (Hamburg, Frankfurt, etc) are approaching for their interest-free loan. At least thirty cities are now talking about the same situation.
By the summer of 2023, reality has set in....the 18 billion Euro for Berlin has been entirely settled out, and they've only reached the 50-percent point of property settlements. The Greens at the national level are worried now because they've arranged for over a hundred billion Euro in interest-free loans, and it's obvious that people underestimated the amount necessary. Property seizures stop.
There are two groups with angry and frustrated citizens forming in Berlin. The first are the ones who are in the new public housing, and thought that their rent would drop by forty-percent.....discovering only a drop of 15-percent. The city explains that they need to pay back the interest-free loan. The second hostile group are the ones in the private properties which can't be seized now because the money ran out. All of this is bringing up demonstrations and public meetings.
By the end of 2023, it's been announced that numerous construction projects for apartment housing projects aren't being pursued because of the threat seen that the city governments might seize the properties.
By the summer of 2024, the whole grab and seize idea has been deemed a failure. All of the interest-free loans are called into question about how big cities benefited and small communities got nothing.
14. Drug use up. In various metropolitan cities of Germany, the public sentiment by summer of 2022 is negative about the amount of serious drug use going on. The Greens confront the issue, making marijuana legal across Germany. The public anger simply grows.
Some efforts center on money being used for homelessness and drug-recovery efforts. The government seeks new taxation to send out over five billion Euro to the metropolitan cities for a two-year program to combat the growing problems.
At least five big-name Green Party members are arrested by the end of 2023 for drug charges (cocaine, meth, etc). Some public sentiment grows in that the party members might be part of the problem.
15. A German word will be invented by the summer of 2022, for Germans who are exiting the country, and resettling elsewhere. It'll be used nightly by news journalists trying to explain the phenomenon. Canadian officials will note by the end of 2022 that they've had over 100,000 requests from Germany about immigration.
A government commission will form by the fall of 2023. The exit affect now concerns the teaching profession, German industries, and the police associations. The chief complaints center on taxation increases, problems with the food chain, too much regulation, anxiety over driving bans, and distrust of the current government.
Additional blame will be placed upon a lingering recession that started to some degree in 2019, but increased in the spring of 2022. A commission will be formed to find root causes of the recession, and the blame will shift to commerce and capitalism....'the evils of society'. For six months, a anti-capitalism slant will be coming out of the government....to the point where they realize they screwed up. That tactic simply increased the flow of Germans out of the country. By the fall of 2025 (the next election), almost 750,000 Germans have left the country.
Trend polling starts to take place in early 2025, with the election 9 months away. It's an odd situation. Metropolitan results across Germany show the Green Party easily at 45-percent of the vote. Non-metropolitan results? Way down to around 8 to 10 percent. In Bavaria, it's a harsh reality that SPD is gaining back votes lost previously to the Greens.
Public hostility? Between taxation issues, public TV tax frustrations, upsurge in asylum and immigration, and public affordable housing woes, the Greens have lost their image/brand. Leading back to the CDU winning in 2025? The immigration negativity leads to AfD gains, and they edge out to win in 2025's election. The Greens label them as fascists....drawing hundreds of thousands to pack and leave Germany because of the suggested chaos coming. To counter the 'Greta-Patrol', the incoming government chats over the idea of uniforms in schools, and raising the voting age back to eighteen.
Just my humble view of the politics coming in two years.
So these are the fifteen areas that I'll talk about with impact over this four-year period, and the chaos likely to follow:
1. Roads, Infrastructure, and Bans. Various measures will occur in this period. Leading them and shocking a fair number of Germans, will be the introduction of a speed limit on German autobahns. I expect at least two German states pushing back (Bavaria and Hessen), and likely able to keep unlimited speeds still on their autobahn structure. The majority of states will see a limit established.
The banning of diesel cars in the inner cities will continue, and taxation will increase on diesel fuel sold in the country.
Bicycle trails will see significant increases in funding, with major 'roads' established from city to city.
Funding allowances will be created for cities to eliminate 'car-streets' in major cities (like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, etc). Some of these streets will be limited to just bicycles, walkers, and battery-powered scooters.
2. Elimination of military weapon exports. I tend to expect most every company existing in Germany today to be told that the current contracts will be the last ones, and no weapons will be built or supplied beyond EU borders as 2021 comes to a conclusion. This will result in various companies evaluating the idea of leaving Germany (relocating to Poland, Czech, or Hungary). By the end of 2022, various jobs will be announced as ending...with companies offering the chance for some of the German employees to relocate. The Bundestag will display anger over the loss of jobs and the companies will respond that they didn't make these 'rules'.
3. The 'Greta-Patrol'. Because of the Fridays for the Future campaign, a significant number of kids will have been 'brain-washed' to certain political agendas. An effort will occur with the Greens dominating national politics....to give the 16-year-old kids the right to vote. All of this effort will lead to numerous kids being left-agenda types. Teachers will begin to realize by 2020 that they've lost control of the classrooms.
At some point, in 2021....the 'Greta-Patrol' kids will force classroom temperatures to be lessened (to save energy), and that only organic type meal options will be offered. The movement of kids of well-to-do parents....to private schools will ramp up, with 10-percent of the current public school system leaving. Some teachers will question the political stance of students and the directives handed down via Berlin's leadership, determining that it's time to forward resumes to countries like Australia, Canada, or the US.
By the end of 2022, at least one German state is investigating bullying and peer-pressure complaints over the 'Greta-Patrol', where non-enthusiasts of the agenda are being pushed around. A commission will be formed, and finds that complaints are legit. Warnings are given to schools, and the topic then becomes a public forum episode via television. By the summer of 2023, there's almost half of the German population who believe this movement is out of control, and that harsh measures need to occur.
Somewhere between 2022 and 2023, a word will be invented for a new phenomenon noticed in German schools. It'll refer to a 'save-the-world' anxiety/stress issue. Kids are now showing up at mental clinics...some as young as eight years old....having panic attacks and unable to cope with stress. Their principal problem? The 'Greta-Patrol' is dumping doom and despair commentary almost daily, and some kids can't handle the stress involved. Rehab centers are being created where kids go for a two-week stay to 'chill-out'. It's eventually called 'Kur-for-Kids', and doctors from around the world come to observe the German phonemum.
The 'Greta-Patrol' doubles down, offering a two-week boot camp each summer, where you get intense doses of living off the grid, making your own sandals, converting to vegan lifestyles, and learning to give up personal luxury items. In 2022, over 5,000 German kids attend the boot camp, and the number triples in 2023.
4. Public Transportation. Because of the banning efforts in 2021/2022, an enormous increase in public transportation starts to take place in major cities (Berlin, Frankfurt, Koln, Stuttgart, etc). The effect? They (the tram, subway, and buslines) simply don't have the assets or capability to transport this number of passengers.
An effort will occur to create a national ticket for all Germans (students, workers, retirees, etc)....the 365-Euro ticket. The ticket (demanded by the Linke Party and Greens) will be eventually found to be shorting the transportation sector, and by 12th month of this new program....it'll double to 730 Euro for adults and retirees. The money pouring into the public system? Based on requirements, it simply won't be enough.
Lateness to work issues? By summer of 2022, a number of companies around top dozen cities of Germany are complaining that this massive effort to get everyone to work via public transportation simply isn't working.
5. Tax increases. To pay for all of the promised 'services', most Germans will be shocked by the spring of 2022 to find various new created taxes. Gas taxes will increase by 10 to 20 percent, enticing people to switch to battery-cars. Cigarette taxes will double, with customs officers reporting significant black-market smokes now being imported into the country.
A wealth tax will be created for those making over x-amount (my guess is 200,000 Euro a year). Along with this will come a super-wealth tax (for those over one-million a year). All of this will work to persuade people to move/relocate outside of the country. Various companies will move their headquarters beyond the German border, and it'll be a highly discussed matter by the end of 2022. Soccer teams will discuss the impact with the wealth taxes, and that big-name players will be asking to be traded to non-German teams. By the end of 2025, all of the top 50 big-name players in Europe will be outside of Germany.
6. Grocery operations. Rules and regulations will start to form over farm production, eliminating the use of nitrates, pesticides, insecticides, etc. Bavaria, Hessen, and the Pflaz region will fight Berlin leadership all the way to the courts, and find that half of the regulations will be allowed to stand. A production 'slow-down' will start to appear by the spring of 2023, with Chancellor Habeck meeting with various farmers and associations....trying to find some middle-ground.
Germans will walk into grocery stores.....surprised that they mostly have non-German vegetables/fruit, all-year-round now. Pricing? Anywhere between 10 and 40 percent more than they pay now. A commision will be appointed by Chancellor Habeck to find out why grocery prices escalated, and why German farmers are not able to provide at the level of the past.
7. Electrical consumption will increase, with consumers fairly surprised over escalating prices. A Green idea will come out, suggesting 'punishment fees' for those consuming a hefty amount of power each year. More and more people will be placing solar panels on their roof, to avoid heavy taxation or more cost for their electrical usage.
8. An effort to bring more and more electrical buses to German cities will backfire. Buses will not be able to provide the number of hours expected with the normal diesel buses.
9. Within a hundred days of the beginning of the 'Green' years, it's very likely that a German letter will go over to the US, announcing the end of the NSA-to-Germany relationship, and asking for the personnel/equipment to be removed. The US will likely cooperate, but quickly find that Poland is very happy to enter into a new relationship here, and everything moves there.
Shortly after that episode, challenges to the US basing will occur, and the US will move to vacate all German basing by the end of 2023. NATO will start to dissolve by mid-summer of 2023. Part of this trend will be blamed on Trump (elected again in 2020), but a great deal of this will revolve around the Green Party vision of Germany in the future. US troops? Some will end up in Poland, as that relationship is improved and changed.
Part of this change will involve cutting German military personnel by 25-percent by 2023, and most foreign missions will all end by early 2024. German military expenditures? The budget will drop by one-third over the 2022/2023 period.
10. Refugees, immigrants, and asylum seekers will find an open-door with the Green Party leadership. The numbers will escalate to 350,000 to 400,000 coming into Germany yearly in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Integration issues will be noted in social media sites, with the public news journalists refusing to discuss problems or issues. Public perception will negative, driving a great deal of CDU normal voters over to the AfD. The election in 2025? It will result in public confidence with the Greens dropping like a rock.
11. Public Television. Roughly a year after the Green victory, public sentiment has centered on the pro-Green government in a negative way. Some will start suggesting it resembles the former GDR government of East Germany (the Communists). The public TV crowd (ZDF and ARD) go into 'defensive' posture and try to convince the public that this simply isn't true. A social media efforts starts up with a 'quit-the-TV-tax' stance. Over fifty-thousand Germans attempt to get out of the TV tax by the end of 2022.
By the end of 2023, a code-phrase will have been invented and former DDR phrases will be often linked to TV news and chatter. At least five moderators/journalists will quit by the end of 2023....coming to agree that some type of effort is being pursued by the leadership of public TV.
12. Robert Habeck. Upon becoming Chancellor, his style will be cheerful, non-suit (no tie), and 'we-can-be-part-of-a-great-future'. He will approach the youth of Germany with the idea of 'giving-up' something....thus feeling good about it. Different campaigns will come and go, like giving up sugar-drinks, or giving up cell-phones at school, or giving up new clothing (used clothing will go into style). Habeck will try to use this new dynamic on neighboring countries, and find that they are mostly laughing over the change in government. Almost on a daily basis, Habeck in the first year is appearing on various TV shows and seems to be continually interviewed. Various TV journalists quote Habeck on a continual basis. By the end of 2024 (3 years into the Chancellor's job), Habeck's public approval has slipped a great deal, and over three-quarters of the country want him to limit his appearances to just once or twice a month on TV (being overdosed with the character factor).
13. Public affordable housing. Within sixty days of assuming the leadership function, the new government has an agenda.....finding 18 billion Euro to provide as an interest-free loan to the city of Berlin....enabling them to seize public housing property from private companies and settle via the court system. The courts swing into action. In six months, half of the properties on the list have been taken. Challenges via the courts come up, and move toward the national court.
As the weeks go by, other cities (Hamburg, Frankfurt, etc) are approaching for their interest-free loan. At least thirty cities are now talking about the same situation.
By the summer of 2023, reality has set in....the 18 billion Euro for Berlin has been entirely settled out, and they've only reached the 50-percent point of property settlements. The Greens at the national level are worried now because they've arranged for over a hundred billion Euro in interest-free loans, and it's obvious that people underestimated the amount necessary. Property seizures stop.
There are two groups with angry and frustrated citizens forming in Berlin. The first are the ones who are in the new public housing, and thought that their rent would drop by forty-percent.....discovering only a drop of 15-percent. The city explains that they need to pay back the interest-free loan. The second hostile group are the ones in the private properties which can't be seized now because the money ran out. All of this is bringing up demonstrations and public meetings.
By the end of 2023, it's been announced that numerous construction projects for apartment housing projects aren't being pursued because of the threat seen that the city governments might seize the properties.
By the summer of 2024, the whole grab and seize idea has been deemed a failure. All of the interest-free loans are called into question about how big cities benefited and small communities got nothing.
14. Drug use up. In various metropolitan cities of Germany, the public sentiment by summer of 2022 is negative about the amount of serious drug use going on. The Greens confront the issue, making marijuana legal across Germany. The public anger simply grows.
Some efforts center on money being used for homelessness and drug-recovery efforts. The government seeks new taxation to send out over five billion Euro to the metropolitan cities for a two-year program to combat the growing problems.
At least five big-name Green Party members are arrested by the end of 2023 for drug charges (cocaine, meth, etc). Some public sentiment grows in that the party members might be part of the problem.
15. A German word will be invented by the summer of 2022, for Germans who are exiting the country, and resettling elsewhere. It'll be used nightly by news journalists trying to explain the phenomenon. Canadian officials will note by the end of 2022 that they've had over 100,000 requests from Germany about immigration.
A government commission will form by the fall of 2023. The exit affect now concerns the teaching profession, German industries, and the police associations. The chief complaints center on taxation increases, problems with the food chain, too much regulation, anxiety over driving bans, and distrust of the current government.
Additional blame will be placed upon a lingering recession that started to some degree in 2019, but increased in the spring of 2022. A commission will be formed to find root causes of the recession, and the blame will shift to commerce and capitalism....'the evils of society'. For six months, a anti-capitalism slant will be coming out of the government....to the point where they realize they screwed up. That tactic simply increased the flow of Germans out of the country. By the fall of 2025 (the next election), almost 750,000 Germans have left the country.
Trend polling starts to take place in early 2025, with the election 9 months away. It's an odd situation. Metropolitan results across Germany show the Green Party easily at 45-percent of the vote. Non-metropolitan results? Way down to around 8 to 10 percent. In Bavaria, it's a harsh reality that SPD is gaining back votes lost previously to the Greens.
Public hostility? Between taxation issues, public TV tax frustrations, upsurge in asylum and immigration, and public affordable housing woes, the Greens have lost their image/brand. Leading back to the CDU winning in 2025? The immigration negativity leads to AfD gains, and they edge out to win in 2025's election. The Greens label them as fascists....drawing hundreds of thousands to pack and leave Germany because of the suggested chaos coming. To counter the 'Greta-Patrol', the incoming government chats over the idea of uniforms in schools, and raising the voting age back to eighteen.
Just my humble view of the politics coming in two years.
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