A Green Party Chancellor

Last weekend, the public TV folks in Germany did a survey show (they do them monthly), and they announced that for the first time since Chancellor Merkel entered the Chancellor-job....she was no longer the most popular political figure in Germany.  Robert Habeck of the Green Party now emerges as number one.  The signal here?  Let me make several observations.

The 'Merkel-hype' has finally peaked out, and one might even go and suggest in 2017, it was obvious that the public wanted a new leader in the Chancellor's position.  Polling for the national election suggested that, but no one really stood out as a better choice.

If you observe public TV in Germany for the past twelve months, Habeck now appears almost weekly. It's not just political agenda forums, but even on regular chat shows as well.  The Green Party is doing a lot of energize the public, and get them on the Habeck 'bandwagon'.

So how does Habeck get into the Chancellor seat?

The next national election is in the fall of 2021.  The Greens have moved up into second place (bouncing around 16-to-19 percent of the polling nationally).  The SPD?  Well....they've fallen (they routinely pull 12-to-15 percent now).  One can say that the CDU is still 'safe' at around 28-to-30 percent (for at least twelve months now). 

As the election for 2021 comes up, let's say that the Greens find ways to entertain SPD-frustrated voters, and get up to around 25-percent of the vote, while the SPD Party falters to around 8-percent. 

You have an election with the CDU easily winning 31-percent, and they need a partner (or two) to form a coalition government.

They go over and have this talk with the Green Party.  They say 'yes', but here's the thing.....we will only entertain the junior partner deal in the coalition, if you allow Habeck to be Chancellor.  The CDU folks in the meeting start laughing (they won the election and ought to own the Chancellor's seat).

They (the CDU) leave the meeting and try to forge the coalition.  They CAN'T partner with the Linke Party or the AfD).  They might be able to do some deal with a weakened SPD and FDP situation, but the SPD might say no.

Then you move back to the Green 'deal'.  The Greens want Habeck in as Chancellor, and at least four of the cabinet posts (to include the Foreign Minister, and the Attorney-General position). 

When this problem goes public, the voters that stood by the CDU in the election will go ballistic.  Yet the only other alternative is to have a second election, or attempt a minority government.  Neither are appealing.

So a CDU Party allows a partner-party to have the Chancellor seat.  When was the last time that something like this happened?  Oh.....the fall of 1930, with Hitler getting the Chancellor job, while his party came in second. 

The anger of CDU voters?  You can go and predict for the next three or four state elections, the CDU will be punished, and some voters might flip to the AfD (showing discontent). 

The odds of this CDU-Green Party coalition after 2021 failing in less than two years?  It's probably a safe bet to predict that.  But this is how Habeck would arrive and fill the Chancellor seat after Merkel.