German Political Chatter

I sat and watched the early Monday morning news via commercial German TV (the non-public TV crowd), and they ran a political polling episode.

There's a trend underway, if you haven't noticed in the past month or two in Germany.  The CDU (the right of center folks, and Merkel's party) have continued to be under the 30-percent point (right now at 28-percent).

In general, you can lay this out to three distinctive features on the landscape:

1.  As much as Merkel and the CDU have danced around the migration, immigration and integration issue....they haven't found any magic to get their 10 points back.  It's safe to say that a quarter to a third of the traditional voters are not agreeable with actions performed, or promises made.

2.  The selection of AKK to be the new CDU Party chief (four months ago), and eventual Chancellor?  That bump-up has never paid much on the promised candidate for the future of the party.  The idea of a carbon-copy of Chancellor Merkel, or the use of the term 'mini-Merkel'?  Zero positives for the party.

3.  Finally, you come to general frustration of the public with the coalition (CDU-CSU-SPD).  Probably a third of all SPD voters are negative about it, and if you look across at normal CDU voters....you get the same thought.  But politics are so splintered up now....that getting a coalition is next to impossible.

But if you ask about the rest of this poll, and what is showing for other parties?

Well....the SPD is locked into third-place with 17 percent (gaining a point over the past week), and the AfD has hit the highest point of 2019, with 13 percent.

In a firm and happy place, the Greens are at 19 percent.  Second place now nationally.

The FDP Party sits at 9 percent, and the Linke Party at 11 percent.

But here is the curious factor....this poll says that undecided voters (they might lean one way or another, but in a true 'tomorrow is election day' situation....23 percent say they aren't sure about how to vote for.

A mistake here and there, with negative problems for the CDU and SPD?  You could easily have the Greens near 25 percent, and the Merkel crowd (in this 2021 national election) could be near 23 to 24 percent.  This is the scenario that I continue to harp upon.  Thirty years ago, folks would have laughed at the idea of a Green Party Chancellor.  I would suggest that it's not that funny anymore.