This is my essay over things would flow over the next two years.....to reach the election where CDU or SPD typical winner, would be unable to 'win', and the Green Party would be in the top position.
The current rumor in Germany is that Chancellor Merkel, after the May EU election will give notice and retire in mid-summer....giving the CDU Party 'chief' (AKK) a chance move up a notch, and avoid having another election.
There are three state elections in the fall of 2019.....all in eastern Germany. Right now....the polling indicates that the AfD Party might not take as many votes as had anticipated.
For 2020? There's only one state election currently on the calendar (Hamburg, around Feb/Mar). Typically, the SPD carries well in Hamburg. The CDU? In the last election (2015), the CDU had around 16-percent of the vote. The Greens were near to 12-percent. I anticipate this election to change to some degree, with the Greens moving up toward 20-percent, and the CDU slipping a percent or two.
In the spring of 2021, Saxony-Anhalt will have an election (figure near March). The Pfalz state election will be around the same time period. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be closer to September 2021. It's possible that all three could see increased Green Party voting trends, and the SPD sliding on their numbers.
So when you get to the fall of 2021, the CDU and SPD could find themselves each with lower numbers, and the Green Party would take advantage of five distinct issues brewing:
1. Diesel car crisis still in a four-star mess. Initiatives to 'de-carize' major urban areas will catch on.
2. Affordable housing in Berlin now a five-star mess.
3. The youth demonstrations on Friday still continuing on Climate Change, Global Warming, and Global Cooling.
4. Anti-Trumpism still thriving.
5. Strong arguments are likely to develop now over far-left social platforms, with public TV taking sides.
All of this, I think....will lead onto a weakened SPD and CDU voting pattern....giving the Greens just enough to win, and the coalition likely forming over the Greens, the SPD, and the Linke Party.
The effect of this possible group? I'll list four things that I perceive as a trend:
1. NATO in some way will dissolve in this period (2021-2025).
2. Taxes increase upon the wealthy and commercial companies (to pay for infrastructure issues, KITA improvements, railway improvements, affordable housing in a dozen cities, and Climate Change initiatives). This will trigger more wealthy Germans to pack, and leave. This will trigger some companies to relocate their headquarter operations outside of the country, and some companies will look at automating....to avoid taxation issues.
3. A 2019-2020 recession will continue into 2021, and last through much of 2022/2023.
4. Hostility brews with car owners now forbidden from various sections of Hamburg, Berlin, and Frankfurt.
So this is my scenario on the Green Party Chancellor factor, and how it might all come to be.
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