Pro-Asylum Chatter

It came up in the German media today that roughly 250-odd pro-asylum groups have signed up to a letter that is to be sent to Chancellor Merkel.

The topic?  Three requests: (1) stopping the repatriations to Libya, (2) the creation in the 'EU' of 'safe harbors' (meaning Italy, France, Spain, Greece, etc), and (3) development of an plan for 'boat people'.

Why target Merkel for the agenda plan?  Well.....more or less....the EU's 'magnetic north' position is calculated mostly by Merkel and her insider crowd to the EU.  If you can convince her to establish a priority, the belief is that the EU would move that direction.  This was logically correct up until the last two or three years.  Presently, I would say that Poland, Czech, Hungary, Austria, and the UK were a counter-balance to that logic now.  Although in a matter of days, the UK's position in the EU won't matter.

So you look at the three requests.

First, if you stop the repatriations to Libya....where do you deposit the rubber raft crowd, if rescued?  The pro-asylum folks want it to be a European country.  If the EU came up with Tunisia, or Algeria....it'd just infuriate the pro-asylum folks.  Presently, the EU has some kind of payment plan (cash) which helps their position with the Libyans on repatriations.

Second, this safe harbor discussion?  They basically want the EU to 'order' Italy to accept any rescue vessel with migrants rescued from the rubber rafts.  Even if Merkel did get the EU to order Italy into that position, I would doubt that the Italians would comply to this order.

Finally, you come to the rescue plan for the 'boat people'.  To be honest, most of these rescues occur with rubber rafts, although older fishing vessels have been used (mostly dragged out to some point and left for the rescue boat to pretend that they found them).  What the pro-asylum folks want is a document which says a hundred folks get rescued, and then they get dispersed to the members of the EU. Five here, one there, twenty here, etc.  So far, even though Merkel has chatted on this subject for five years now.....the members of the EU are skeptical of how this would work, and some want the right of refusal (something that the EU cannot allow in the talks).

What'll happen with the request?  It'll be brought up and discussed at various EU meetings, but frankly....it's difficult to see how the EU mechanism can be made to change the attitude of various countries on this topic.  If this were a one-time situation of 10,000 migrants, then it'd be discussed....but no one can ever say that it's a one time, or one-year project.  You would be opening the door to potentially a million to ten-million migrants per year, and no one sees that being acceptable. 

So this is all for show and PR-hype?  Yes, that's the simple side of the story.