I've often essayed on German state elections in 2019, so I'll go and cover the scene in 2020. Basically, unless something comes to change matters, there's only one single state election in 2020 (around Feb/Mar).....in the state of Hamburg.
In the last election, the SPD Party easily carried the state election with 45-percent of the vote, with the CDU coming up with only 16-percent. The Greens were in third place with 12-percent, and the Linke Party in fourth place with 8.5 percent.
The FDP Party brought in 7.4-percent, and the AfD were at 6.1 percent (their first real effort in Hamburg in 2015).
I should also point out that near 30,000 votes counted toward Die Partei (The Party), which is a cynical and comical group, where no one takes anything serious.
What's happened since 2015? The G20 Conference, with street riots....came to anger a lot of residents. The limited number of prosecutions and convictions from that episode? It probably taints the way that people will vote.
I might go and suggest that the Greens will move up five points minimum, and the AfD might be closer to 10-percent in this 2020 election.
If things were to go fairly negative for the CDU 'brand' in this election? It might worry the insiders to the national CDU Party because they don't have any further episodes in 2020 to show recovery.
The affordable housing crisis and the diesel crisis effects? Those are the big unknowns. Both of these could harm the CDU and the SPD efforts.
So I project that this election (the only state election for 2020) likely has major impact for the Green Party efforts.
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