Political Chatter

Over the past couple of months, there's been a lot of political chatter in Germany....especially since Chancellor Merkel stepped down as the CDU Party chief.

One rumor over the past month has been that shortly after the EU election (mid-May), that Chancellor Merkel would announce her retirement, and go quietly out this summer.  The rules in the system would allow the CDU Party chief to announce her candidacy (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer or AKK for short) to have a Party meeting and get a vote to confirm her as Chancellor. 

However, the next step would be the coalition party approval (from the SPD Party).  Some comments have been laid out and there is a suggestion that they will not approve the AKK situation for Chancellor.....demanding instead that the Vice-Chancellor (currently Finance Minister as well), Olaf Scholz....be given the role as Chancellor.  Scholz, if you remember, was the mayor of Hamburg up until this last election and coalition effort. 

If the SPD failed to support AKK, then the choice is to accept Scholz, or allow a fresh new national election.  It's a big gamble.

If you look at polling from the past quarter....the SPD Party (nationally) is at 15-to-16 point area.  It would not be in their advantage to have an election. The CDU?  Presently around 30-to-31 points.

The SPD putting down markers to demand cooperation?  More or less.  They might be maneuvering to get some funding to Berlin's effort to buy public housing, or to support a massive change to the Hartz IV welfare program.

If Merkel just continues on?  That scenario leads to the fall 2019 election of three German states (all in the east), and the potential for lesser numbers for the CDU in those elections. Yes, Merkel could be around for the full four years, and walk away in the fall of 2021 (on schedule). 

If a national election were forced?  One might suggest that election would be in October of this year, and the Green Party would be likely to gain votes.  Getting enough to beat the CDU?  No, but enough that the SPD would be put into a position where they can't be a partner in the coalition.....and the Greens might be the only potential partner with real numbers to make a coalition work. 

It's all something worth watching.