Farm Story

I sat through a short report yesterday from public TV news in Germany, and they'd gone to review data collected by a German university.  So they laid out this story....that various politicians (from both the right-of-center CDU and the left-of-center SPD parties) are taking particular 'sides' when it comes to farm production and agricultural sustainability.  In simple terms, they are sticking with the farmers, the industrial agricultural folks, the ag associations, and the food industry.

This trend (probably going on for more than 20 years)....centers on the 'massive' use of fertilization of farmland, with both liquid manure and standard fertilizer.  Chief reason? 

This goes to a business model that probably has been around for several decades.  You need X-number of acres producing feed, which transitions over to livestock or swine production. Feed usages equals production, and that motivates profitability. 

But this odd feature fell into place as time went by.....all these nitrates (either via manure or fertilizer)....got down into the water supply.  Yep, and that bulks up after a while.

The clean-water agenda folks?  Well...they've been talking about this problem and they want regulations.  The political folks?  Those supporting the various farmers, and food industry folks....have come to realize the impact of the regulations.

If you cut back on manure-spray and the fertilizer....say by half....then the cattle and pork production models don't work, and the farm diminishes on profits, and production.  In simple terms, the German farm landscape would likely have a massive cutback.  No one talks numbers, but you'd have to anticipate a loss of twenty-percent easily. 

If you built your entire farm to a certain model, and profitability.....and it failed?  That's the curious thing that the pro-water folks have avoided discussing. 

If the regulation does come?  My humble guess is that you'd see some farms intensely involved in cattle/pork production....just give up.  Beef and pork production coming more from outside of Germany?  Yes.  Your prices would go upward.  What happens to the farmers who fall because of the regulations?  That might be worth asking.

You can tell....something is coming.  If not in 2019, then in 2020, and it'll pose a serious change to the German farming community.