Four German Election Scenarios

 1.  BSW does 'well'.  BSW has been around for roughly 18 months (relatively new) and folks thought that they would take most Linke Party (far-left) votes, and some SPD/Green votes.   The idea was....they'd get up around 11-to-15 percent of the national vote.

Presently, they are marginally at 5-percent, and they aren't taking much of any SPD or Green votes.  In some way, they are simply harming the Linke Party (figure them at 3-percent roughly in polling).

Is BSW left or right wing?  I'd suggest some agenda items which are definitely left-wing, and a couple which are right-wing.  They want the war in Ukraine over, and end up with a pro-Russia 'friendship'.  

If they stay at 5-to-6 percent?  They aren't much of a factor in the election.

2.  AfD Party getting attention and increased polling?

Presently, they sit between 17-to-19 percent in polling.  With the Magdeburg incident....yeah, they might get another 3-percent in voting.   

Even if they shocked the media....getting 35-percent and 'winning'......there's the problem of a coalition-building....NO other party will partner with them.

In this scenario....after a month of failed coalition talks....the system would  go to the 2nd place winner, and give them a month to build a coalition.  This would occur, but it'd be a highly weakened coalition (3 groups) and I doubt that this gov't  would survive more than two years.

AfD's chief issues?  Beyond going back to the D-Mark and being anti-migrant....they don't have other agenda items which get discussed much.  They know it's an issue and have tried to get into economics, energy and infrastructure.

The one bright spot for the party?  Alice Weidel is the Chancellor-candidate and on a scale of one to ten...for debate skills....I'd give her a solid '9'.  And to be honest....since day one, and all the various 'leaders' that have come and gone for the party....she's probably the best overall player in the party.

3.  CDU and CSU being unified?

Well....I would suggest they are conflicted and at the widest junction in fifty years.  The CSU, of course, is a Bavarian-state conservative party, and in a national election (since they run ONLY in Bavaria)....they amount to around 6-percent of the national vote.  

In this election, the CSU has openly said it'd rather NOT see a coalition where the Greens as a partner.  The CDU (running in 15 states) has not agreed to this.

As much as people try to suggest a unified team....it's not that way.  

4.  This election mostly about coalition-building?

YES.  There is little to discuss....other than you have to find agreeable terms to partner-up. Whatever you promise as a party....in the election itself...the odds are that you will water-down your agenda to reach favorable terms.