It's a three-liner story, but it's something that you have to ponder about.
There's a business survey group....Bertelsman Stiftung, which went out and looked at BREXIT numbers.
If there were an no-deal BREXIT (entirely possible now), then the Germans stand to lose on a yearly basis....roughly 10-billion Euro. So over the next four years....that's a 40-billion revenue sum that is missing.
The French? Eight-billion Euro for a loss (yearly).
The Italians? Four-billion Euro for a loss.
The UK, against all EU partners? 57-billion for a loss (yearly).
Could any of these make it up? No. So here's the suggestive outcome (if you haven't figured it out already). Once we hit BREXIT and no deal happens, there's a recession about to bloom over the remainder of 2019, and probably into most of 2020. Yes, a serious slow-down.
The UK might be able to swing some points with the US (maybe the US-Canada-Mexico trade treaty), and get ease of access. It might take six month, but their loss might be slowed a significant amount, and less of a problem. The remainder of the EU? Less so. If the UK doesn't get a doorway to the US? Their exit will be a bigger problem, and politically....I could see both political parties collapsing by 2020, with serious public frustration.
Bertelsman Stiftung's survey? I have no reason to believe it's a false or fake survey. This should have been laid out a year ago.
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