Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Berlin Polling

RBB (the Berlin state-run network) did a poll on the state itself.  With roughly 3.5 million's one of the smaller states (of the sixteen).

We are around six months away from the state election there and such matters are important now.

CDU: 21-percent.

SPD: 23-percent (they lost 2-percent over the last two months)

Green Party: 17-percent (they lost 2-percent over the last two months)

Linke Party: 16-percent

AfD Party (anti-immigrant slant): 13-percent (gain of 3-percent over last two months)

FDP: 5-percent

Remainder were oddball parties.

What's the trend?  RBB says that the public has shown some discontent with the accomplishments of the State Senate.  The CDU and SPD run a joint government and neither done a lot to make the public feel enthusiastic about the upcoming election.

Presently....unless something really changes with the CDU or SPD....I think both will be lucky if they hit 20-percent, and the AfD might come close to 16-percent.

All of this means that three parties will be required in the election outcome (if it continues this direction) to form a government in 2017, and it'll marginalize the message of all three and the strength of the upcoming government will be nothing much to brag about.  It is conceivable that the CDU might fall into third-place, with the Greens actually coming up in second place.

Affecting the three spring elections?  Well....yeah.  The continual downward trend of the SPD and CDU has a major effect on three additional elections, and the November 2017 national election.  We may very well reach a point where the SPD can't exceed 18-percent nationally, and that really says a lot about the rank-and-file folks who used to vote hardcore for the SPD.

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