If you live in Germany....owning a house, there is this crisis problem which lingers in your mind, and pops up every once in a while....the street renovation deal. HR, our regional public TV network, brought up the topic today.
When a mayor and city council draw up a plan to 'rehab' a street (basically to repave it).....unless it's the main thoroughfare of the village or town, there's going to be a design study and assessment carried out, with the cost of the final project laid out in square meters. If you house occupies x-amount of square meters.....you will get a bill from the city to cover your 'contribution' to the final bill.
Back in the 1970s and 1980s....this meant around 5,000 to 10,000 D-Marks (roughly $2,500 to $5,000). It was a fairly hefty amount. Today? You could be talking about 20,000 Euro (roughly $25,000). Some guys with larger lots, and it being a corner lot.....could be dragged into a 60,000 Euro tax (roughly $75,000).
This escalation in cost? It's related to oil prices going up and manpower cost of road construction.
Naturally, this is driving massive discontent in villages....with people vowing to vote out any mayor or city council group who brings up the road renovation chatter.
In the Hungen region of Hessen.....4,000 folks signed a petition to bring up a referendum....to change this problem around. The city? They have fought the petition by saying it was wrongly worded.
Why fight the cost issue? Most community leaders see renovation of streets necessary to demonstrate to businesses looking to locate to the town, or to new prospective buyers of property....that this is a 'fine' place to live and it has nice streets.
So HR brought this topic....the SPD Party of Hessen wants to take the rule apart and funnel only state money into the problem.....leaving the private property owners out of this mess. The cost? Oh.....well.....the ballpark figure is 60-million Euro. It's questionable if this is enough, and I might go and speculate that cost might be five times that amount in the end. No one seems to ever go and add up the village by village or city by city cost on road renovation.
Where would the money come from? Unknown. Supported by other opposition parties? NO....both the Greens and CDU appear to be against the change.
The problem is this issue just sits there and simmers. Massive frustration and hostility exists between residents and their city council. Some folks will receive a 50,000 Euro fee cost, and at age 65.....they can't readily walk into a bank and borrow the money.....so they end up selling the property to avoid the cost factor. Forced movement? This is the ongoing trend, and people think there is a certain unfairness to the whole discussion.
On ranking of problems? If you own property....it's on your top 100 issues to worry about.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Bahn 'Crisis' Meeting
Over the past two months.....three major 'crisis' meetings have been held at the German Bahn (the national railway operation). ARD, public TV, Channel One, noted observations from yesterday's crisis meeting.
What one can say over the driving force of the 'crisis'...it's mostly over declining confidence that the national railway system works as advertised. You can sit at the platform area of the Wiesbaden Bahnhof (train station) for an hour and observe the rush-hour traffic, and the number of delayed arrivals and delayed departures. For people relying upon this structured method of travel.....a fair number of them had to depend on a bus or two....to get themselves to the station to start their little 'trip' to work. Most have to depend on some tram or bus network deal, upon arrival at their destination (say Frankfurt, Darmstadt, or Mainz), and if they miss that 5-minute pause point....their next connection isn't for twenty to thirty minutes.....causing them to face the supervisor or boss and detail their woes in travel. After enough of these, you start to think about using the car and dismissing the rail travel.
The 'crisis', if you want to call it that....is over this frustration and anger. You could even be standing there on a mid-summer's morning and observe six out of twenty departures on a 10-to-20 minute delay pattern, with people standing there shaking their heads.
So what did yesterday's meeting accomplish? As the ARD journalists note.....everyone had ideas on correcting delays. But every single one of these revolve around more funding. What the experts suggest is that the Bahn needs two-billion Euro more a year....minimum. Some even suggest it ought to be near six-billion EXTRA Euro a year. Where this mythical money would come from? Unknown. The mere suggestion that ticket prices would rise 25-percent? It'd freak out some Germans and convince them to travel via car.
A political magnet? That's also part of the trouble here because various political parties are now attached to the 'crisis' meetings and want to push their agendas.
What'll likely happen? I would view the talks revolving mostly around tickets going up 5-percent a year, for several years.....and the government having some 'donation' of one billion Euro to the pot a year for a period of three or four years. And the results? Even if it corrected 50-percent of the delays....it'd be called a remarkable success.
The problem here, if you go and stand in the middle of public transportation....say in Hamburg's main station, or the Hauptbahnhof of Frankfurt....the systems are taking a remarkable number of people, and moving them throughout a 18-hour day. Because of the urbanization of these metropolitan areas....they developed like a magnet, and more people flock to this phenomenal lifestyle. Each one of these public transportation structures is stretched as far as they can make it.....to resolve this daily movement requirement of the general public.
In the end, without much resolution, I would expect a quarter of the population to give up and go back to using their cars.....causing the next 'crisis'.....the autobahns, streets, and parking structures unable to handle that traffic flow.
What one can say over the driving force of the 'crisis'...it's mostly over declining confidence that the national railway system works as advertised. You can sit at the platform area of the Wiesbaden Bahnhof (train station) for an hour and observe the rush-hour traffic, and the number of delayed arrivals and delayed departures. For people relying upon this structured method of travel.....a fair number of them had to depend on a bus or two....to get themselves to the station to start their little 'trip' to work. Most have to depend on some tram or bus network deal, upon arrival at their destination (say Frankfurt, Darmstadt, or Mainz), and if they miss that 5-minute pause point....their next connection isn't for twenty to thirty minutes.....causing them to face the supervisor or boss and detail their woes in travel. After enough of these, you start to think about using the car and dismissing the rail travel.
The 'crisis', if you want to call it that....is over this frustration and anger. You could even be standing there on a mid-summer's morning and observe six out of twenty departures on a 10-to-20 minute delay pattern, with people standing there shaking their heads.
So what did yesterday's meeting accomplish? As the ARD journalists note.....everyone had ideas on correcting delays. But every single one of these revolve around more funding. What the experts suggest is that the Bahn needs two-billion Euro more a year....minimum. Some even suggest it ought to be near six-billion EXTRA Euro a year. Where this mythical money would come from? Unknown. The mere suggestion that ticket prices would rise 25-percent? It'd freak out some Germans and convince them to travel via car.
A political magnet? That's also part of the trouble here because various political parties are now attached to the 'crisis' meetings and want to push their agendas.
What'll likely happen? I would view the talks revolving mostly around tickets going up 5-percent a year, for several years.....and the government having some 'donation' of one billion Euro to the pot a year for a period of three or four years. And the results? Even if it corrected 50-percent of the delays....it'd be called a remarkable success.
The problem here, if you go and stand in the middle of public transportation....say in Hamburg's main station, or the Hauptbahnhof of Frankfurt....the systems are taking a remarkable number of people, and moving them throughout a 18-hour day. Because of the urbanization of these metropolitan areas....they developed like a magnet, and more people flock to this phenomenal lifestyle. Each one of these public transportation structures is stretched as far as they can make it.....to resolve this daily movement requirement of the general public.
In the end, without much resolution, I would expect a quarter of the population to give up and go back to using their cars.....causing the next 'crisis'.....the autobahns, streets, and parking structures unable to handle that traffic flow.
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Assault Story
Over the past month in Wiesbaden (my 'suburb').....there's been four vicious attack/assaults by a single guy at random times in the city. Some involved him just waving a knife around and striking fear...some were thrown to the ground. No one was killed (thankfully). Based on a description of the guy.....cops in the city eventually realized it was one single guy doing this.
Well....on Sunday, there came the fifth attack, and cops were alerted and spanned out with a fairly good description of the guy. This time, they cornered him and took him down.
What the authorities say? Well....the 26-year-old guy had been previously been under treatment at a local facility for mental issues. Now? He's been placed by a judge in a facility and will be held until an assessment occurs. Likelihood of getting out? I would have my doubts. German legal standings usually ask the question....is the person safe to let out, and if no one will sign the paperwork....you stay.
The issue is that people hear about these type of assaults, and by word of mouth, there is a tension that builds up that it's not 'safe' to walk around. One single nutcase....intimidation by knife....and you get several thousand folks all hyped up.
Well....on Sunday, there came the fifth attack, and cops were alerted and spanned out with a fairly good description of the guy. This time, they cornered him and took him down.
What the authorities say? Well....the 26-year-old guy had been previously been under treatment at a local facility for mental issues. Now? He's been placed by a judge in a facility and will be held until an assessment occurs. Likelihood of getting out? I would have my doubts. German legal standings usually ask the question....is the person safe to let out, and if no one will sign the paperwork....you stay.
The issue is that people hear about these type of assaults, and by word of mouth, there is a tension that builds up that it's not 'safe' to walk around. One single nutcase....intimidation by knife....and you get several thousand folks all hyped up.
Terror Suspects Arrested This Morning
There's a short piece this morning out of north Germany, from Focus (the German news magazine), over terrorists being arrested.
What the cops say is that the three guys arrested, originally came to Germany three years ago, and were from Iraq. They had been in some type of planning phase with an attack planned in Germany.
The German federal cops did an early morning raid there in the Dithmarschen area of Schleswig-Holstein. The centerpiece of their plan? Building an explosive device from fireworks that you would have used on New Year's Eve.
So it's another case where cops got smart, tailed the suspects, and arrested them when the planning phase reached it's peak. This is a trend that you continually see, with the German police quiet successful.
What the cops say is that the three guys arrested, originally came to Germany three years ago, and were from Iraq. They had been in some type of planning phase with an attack planned in Germany.
The German federal cops did an early morning raid there in the Dithmarschen area of Schleswig-Holstein. The centerpiece of their plan? Building an explosive device from fireworks that you would have used on New Year's Eve.
So it's another case where cops got smart, tailed the suspects, and arrested them when the planning phase reached it's peak. This is a trend that you continually see, with the German police quiet successful.
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Diesel Car Chatter
Focus, the German news magazine, probably delivered the best article in months on the German diesel crisis, and opened up a massive 'gate'. It is well worth sitting down and spending 10 minutes looking at the commentary, the data and the consequences.
So, here's the ultimate shocker.....if you use the EU 'number' from the 1990s which was to ensure clean air for all EU citizens.....there are over 335 communities and cities in Germany which would be in dire straits.
But they get to the point of emphasizing that it's not just diesel particles which drive the concern. Gas particles add up as well, and they even note the circumstances around Stuttgart where dust from the subway tunnels are now being considered as a problem.
After reading through the piece, I sat and contemplated how civilization would exist in these 335 cities....if you suddenly pulled the EU 'lever' and shut down a quarter to half of the transportation avenues around towns. Would mass transit even be able to cover the requirements? Would you have to double the number of trams, subways and buses to reach some survival point? It all adds up to a fairly serious and harsh reality.
If it is that bad in terms of health consequences.....then why remain there in a charged-up and unhealthy atmosphere? Why not pack up and move 40 kilometers outside of these metropolitan zones?
If anything, this whole crisis period with the diesel cars and the EU clean air situation....has opened up a vast discussion, and it's consuming an awful lot of trust in the government. If the EU standard for clean air is not readily proven or based on a faulty research project from the early 1990s....are we creating a huge mess for nothing? If you drive out this diesel car business and the particles don't improve much.....what is the second step, and can the public accept a quarter of some city being declared as a 'no-car' zone?
I sat this morning on my balcony as the sun rose here in Germany. It's awful cold and it was just a brief minute or two. But I gazed out across the valley, and this village of three-thousand people. There in this freezing temperature, you could see various chimneys in operation and pumping out soot and fumes....to heat each house. The odds that in this small village.....this might add up to a point of violating the EU clean air regulation? Well....here's the one positive....we don't have a 'station' to monitor and measure clean-air levels. So we don't have a problem. If we did add a station and found bad numbers? Yeah, it opens up this massive problem. Oddly, it'd have nothing to do with diesel cars.
So, here's the ultimate shocker.....if you use the EU 'number' from the 1990s which was to ensure clean air for all EU citizens.....there are over 335 communities and cities in Germany which would be in dire straits.
But they get to the point of emphasizing that it's not just diesel particles which drive the concern. Gas particles add up as well, and they even note the circumstances around Stuttgart where dust from the subway tunnels are now being considered as a problem.
After reading through the piece, I sat and contemplated how civilization would exist in these 335 cities....if you suddenly pulled the EU 'lever' and shut down a quarter to half of the transportation avenues around towns. Would mass transit even be able to cover the requirements? Would you have to double the number of trams, subways and buses to reach some survival point? It all adds up to a fairly serious and harsh reality.
If it is that bad in terms of health consequences.....then why remain there in a charged-up and unhealthy atmosphere? Why not pack up and move 40 kilometers outside of these metropolitan zones?
If anything, this whole crisis period with the diesel cars and the EU clean air situation....has opened up a vast discussion, and it's consuming an awful lot of trust in the government. If the EU standard for clean air is not readily proven or based on a faulty research project from the early 1990s....are we creating a huge mess for nothing? If you drive out this diesel car business and the particles don't improve much.....what is the second step, and can the public accept a quarter of some city being declared as a 'no-car' zone?
I sat this morning on my balcony as the sun rose here in Germany. It's awful cold and it was just a brief minute or two. But I gazed out across the valley, and this village of three-thousand people. There in this freezing temperature, you could see various chimneys in operation and pumping out soot and fumes....to heat each house. The odds that in this small village.....this might add up to a point of violating the EU clean air regulation? Well....here's the one positive....we don't have a 'station' to monitor and measure clean-air levels. So we don't have a problem. If we did add a station and found bad numbers? Yeah, it opens up this massive problem. Oddly, it'd have nothing to do with diesel cars.
Medical Marijuana in Germany
It's not front-page news and I doubt if more than a quarter of German society is aware of the path being 'blazed'. Toward the end of 2020, if legal matters and production schedules stay on schedule....legal medical-cannabis (marijuana) production will start up in Germany.
I sat and watched a piece off N-TV this morning which talked about the upcoming event.
Right now, the German Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) is reviewing the contract bid's (79 folks asking for the license procedure)....to produce 23,000 pounds of cannabis.....over four years.
Naturally, there is a list of diseases which you have to qualify for.....to be given the doctor's slip to purchase via a system (yet to be defined). The current bid deal will be split up into 13 groups, to ensure no loss or failure, and no possible 'giant' coming out to produce the entire 'lot'.
Likelihood that this program will expand? No one says much and I suspect they just want to get to the first step and have a national program implemented before suggesting that a 'open' program could exist. The odds that the 23,000 pounds for four years won't be enough? No one has really said how they arrived at this four-year schedule or the 23,000 pound limit.....which you might go and suggest it was just a wild guess/estimate. Cost level? Again, another unknown.
I sat and watched a piece off N-TV this morning which talked about the upcoming event.
Right now, the German Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) is reviewing the contract bid's (79 folks asking for the license procedure)....to produce 23,000 pounds of cannabis.....over four years.
Naturally, there is a list of diseases which you have to qualify for.....to be given the doctor's slip to purchase via a system (yet to be defined). The current bid deal will be split up into 13 groups, to ensure no loss or failure, and no possible 'giant' coming out to produce the entire 'lot'.
Likelihood that this program will expand? No one says much and I suspect they just want to get to the first step and have a national program implemented before suggesting that a 'open' program could exist. The odds that the 23,000 pounds for four years won't be enough? No one has really said how they arrived at this four-year schedule or the 23,000 pound limit.....which you might go and suggest it was just a wild guess/estimate. Cost level? Again, another unknown.
More Electrical Cost Coming to Germany
Electricity chatter has been hyped up over the past week in German with the coal business being discussed a good bit. I noticed this morning via N-TV (the German news network) a short piece, which indicated a significant rise in power costs coming to the German consumer.
There was a good quote there by RWI energy expert....Manuel Frondel....who basically suggested: "For a three-person household with an annual consumption typically 4,000 kWh, that means 40 euros a year in additional costs."
Forty extra Euros isn't the end of the world, but it'll be layered across society. So the baker, the car mechanic, the grocery.....will all hand their costs onto you. So it's not really just 40 Euro spend extra....it'll likely run up around 100 Euro (my estimate) when you figure the costs coming down the pike.
There was a good quote there by RWI energy expert....Manuel Frondel....who basically suggested: "For a three-person household with an annual consumption typically 4,000 kWh, that means 40 euros a year in additional costs."
Forty extra Euros isn't the end of the world, but it'll be layered across society. So the baker, the car mechanic, the grocery.....will all hand their costs onto you. So it's not really just 40 Euro spend extra....it'll likely run up around 100 Euro (my estimate) when you figure the costs coming down the pike.
Monday, January 28, 2019
Speed Topic
So there is this debate which erupted in Germany over the past two weeks....following a commision suggestion that the speed limits should be changed. The Transportation Ministry? They weren't exactly enthusiastic over the suggestion. In fact, they tried to accept the recommendation and then just file it.
The basic suggestion? On autobahns.....top speed of 130 kph (80 mph). On secondary roads....80 kph (50 mph).
Here's the general situation, and it has been this way for the past fifty-odd years. I would suggest that around 50-percent of all autobahn roads are 'unlimited'. The rest range from 130 kph, 100 kph (in highly urbanized areas), and 60-to-70 kph (construction zones on the autobahns). As for the B-roads and local highways? Mostly 100 kph, although some regions have put in a 80-to-90 kph range if roadkill episodes occur on a frequent basis and safety conditions require it. Within city limits? Fifty kph is normal, and in a highly used area.....it can go down to 30 kph.
There are general opinions by Germans, and the polls are hard to suggests as being reliable. Those who drive 100 kilometers one-way each day to work.....would prefer no speed limit changes.
ARD (public TV) brought up this interesting statistic today.
In 2017, there were 3,180 people (not all included Germans) who died on German roads, autobahns and streets in a car accident. Oddly enough, it was the lowest number in 60 years.
The West German rate in 1970? Well, this gets to an interesting point. Roughly 20,000 people died in car accidents that year.
I sat and paused over this.....talking to my Germany wife. She brought up one curious thing that happen in 1970.....that was the year that they mandated ALL new cars had to have seat belts (no longer an option). From that year on.....German cars had seat belts in the front. Back-seat belts? That didn't come until 1979. But there were still people driving cars from the late 1970s with no belt. Curiously, with the 1970 statistic.....almost an entire city of population died yearly from car accidents.
ARD brought up several other improvements. Strict rules on alcohol consumption? That came up in the 1980s, and is strongly enforced today. Improved road and traffic design? I can vouch for that....having driven around German in 1978. The mandatory requirement for kid-seats? That changed the situation as well. Improved tires and safety design? That made things different as well.
The use of helicopters to get people rapidly to hospitals after an accident? That was another plus-up.
I'm not really convinced that the speed limit chatter will do much. It will increase public forum topics and get Green Party folks all hyped up. But most Germans will ask questions and wonder about the negative consequences.
The basic suggestion? On autobahns.....top speed of 130 kph (80 mph). On secondary roads....80 kph (50 mph).
Here's the general situation, and it has been this way for the past fifty-odd years. I would suggest that around 50-percent of all autobahn roads are 'unlimited'. The rest range from 130 kph, 100 kph (in highly urbanized areas), and 60-to-70 kph (construction zones on the autobahns). As for the B-roads and local highways? Mostly 100 kph, although some regions have put in a 80-to-90 kph range if roadkill episodes occur on a frequent basis and safety conditions require it. Within city limits? Fifty kph is normal, and in a highly used area.....it can go down to 30 kph.
There are general opinions by Germans, and the polls are hard to suggests as being reliable. Those who drive 100 kilometers one-way each day to work.....would prefer no speed limit changes.
ARD (public TV) brought up this interesting statistic today.
In 2017, there were 3,180 people (not all included Germans) who died on German roads, autobahns and streets in a car accident. Oddly enough, it was the lowest number in 60 years.
The West German rate in 1970? Well, this gets to an interesting point. Roughly 20,000 people died in car accidents that year.
I sat and paused over this.....talking to my Germany wife. She brought up one curious thing that happen in 1970.....that was the year that they mandated ALL new cars had to have seat belts (no longer an option). From that year on.....German cars had seat belts in the front. Back-seat belts? That didn't come until 1979. But there were still people driving cars from the late 1970s with no belt. Curiously, with the 1970 statistic.....almost an entire city of population died yearly from car accidents.
ARD brought up several other improvements. Strict rules on alcohol consumption? That came up in the 1980s, and is strongly enforced today. Improved road and traffic design? I can vouch for that....having driven around German in 1978. The mandatory requirement for kid-seats? That changed the situation as well. Improved tires and safety design? That made things different as well.
The use of helicopters to get people rapidly to hospitals after an accident? That was another plus-up.
I'm not really convinced that the speed limit chatter will do much. It will increase public forum topics and get Green Party folks all hyped up. But most Germans will ask questions and wonder about the negative consequences.
New Grocery in Germany?
Starting up in the morning (the 29th).....there will be a new discount grocery operation in Germany. 'Torgservis' is the name.
Opening in Leipzig....this is a first of a strange kind.....a Russian owned operation.
Their gimmick? No fancy lights.....fruit and vegetables laid out on pallets.
Yes, just a a plain, raw grocery.
Will it work in Germany? There's almost a thousand of these in eastern Europe, Russia and Asia. Some people probably will suggest that the plain features and cheap prices will entice some Germans. All this bio-food gimmicks that most German shops feature? I would imagine that it won't occur at Torgservis. Those on a fixed income and near poverty-class might find this an interesting shop.
Opening in Leipzig....this is a first of a strange kind.....a Russian owned operation.
Their gimmick? No fancy lights.....fruit and vegetables laid out on pallets.
Yes, just a a plain, raw grocery.
Will it work in Germany? There's almost a thousand of these in eastern Europe, Russia and Asia. Some people probably will suggest that the plain features and cheap prices will entice some Germans. All this bio-food gimmicks that most German shops feature? I would imagine that it won't occur at Torgservis. Those on a fixed income and near poverty-class might find this an interesting shop.
Last Night's Anne Will Show
Last night (Sunday evening), ARD (the public TV network in Germany, Channel One) ran the public discussion forum 'Anne Will Show'. The topic? The recent new hype that the diesel particle woes might not be scientifically proven.
For almost two years, Germans have gotten a fairly hard-driven storyline that the VW cheated on the fumes test.....that the air quality in metropolitan cities is in violation of EU standards/laws.....and that a forbidden situation was going to occur with diesel cars. Then about a month ago....some lung doctors stood up and basically said.....well....there are no reliable studies to prove the EU law is correct. In fact, the lung doctors said that the conducted studies would only be correct if you took into consideration almost zero exercise, and cigarette smoking was continuing on a level pace.
So the team at Anne Will invited distinguished guests to come on and talk over the subject. You can view the episode at this site. The hour-long show is interesting to watch if you have a curiosity over the whole diesel 'crisis'.
My take is that if people sit and watch the show.....they will agree that nothing on the science of the law has really been done to the degree required to ban diesel cars.
For environmentalists.....they felt this was pretty much a guaranteed thing up until the pulmonologists came out with their statement.
I would suggest that this is driving Germans to a level of frustration. All this hype from two years of effort by the politicians and journalists.....to have some 'light' suddenly come on and reveal that the facts are slanted to some degree. It just burns away 'trust' that people have in the government.
For almost two years, Germans have gotten a fairly hard-driven storyline that the VW cheated on the fumes test.....that the air quality in metropolitan cities is in violation of EU standards/laws.....and that a forbidden situation was going to occur with diesel cars. Then about a month ago....some lung doctors stood up and basically said.....well....there are no reliable studies to prove the EU law is correct. In fact, the lung doctors said that the conducted studies would only be correct if you took into consideration almost zero exercise, and cigarette smoking was continuing on a level pace.
So the team at Anne Will invited distinguished guests to come on and talk over the subject. You can view the episode at this site. The hour-long show is interesting to watch if you have a curiosity over the whole diesel 'crisis'.
My take is that if people sit and watch the show.....they will agree that nothing on the science of the law has really been done to the degree required to ban diesel cars.
For environmentalists.....they felt this was pretty much a guaranteed thing up until the pulmonologists came out with their statement.
I would suggest that this is driving Germans to a level of frustration. All this hype from two years of effort by the politicians and journalists.....to have some 'light' suddenly come on and reveal that the facts are slanted to some degree. It just burns away 'trust' that people have in the government.
Trucking Story
Germany has this rule in effect about trucks on autobahns for Sundays. Basically, from Saturday night, until late Sunday night....tractor trailer rigs have to be 'parked'. They can't be on autobahns unless they have a waiver (usually a rare circumstance).
So this morning, my regional public TV network....HR....came up with a report from this past weekend. Cops did something that they rarely, if ever, do.....they inspected sitting trucks in rest-stops throughout Hessen.
1,200 trucks were inspected. Out of that....190 drivers were found in states of drunkenness. In fact, 79 of them were found to be so drunk....that they were forbidden road access at 10PM on Sunday, which would have been the first chance they'd have to get back onto the autobahn.
If you stand and view the landscape on this long-standing German law....what exactly did anyone think the truckers were doing for this 24-hour period while sitting in a rest-stop? Having tea parties and discussing science topics? Once forced into a twenty-four 'rest'.....they went to booze to get through the 'rest'.
So this morning, my regional public TV network....HR....came up with a report from this past weekend. Cops did something that they rarely, if ever, do.....they inspected sitting trucks in rest-stops throughout Hessen.
1,200 trucks were inspected. Out of that....190 drivers were found in states of drunkenness. In fact, 79 of them were found to be so drunk....that they were forbidden road access at 10PM on Sunday, which would have been the first chance they'd have to get back onto the autobahn.
If you stand and view the landscape on this long-standing German law....what exactly did anyone think the truckers were doing for this 24-hour period while sitting in a rest-stop? Having tea parties and discussing science topics? Once forced into a twenty-four 'rest'.....they went to booze to get through the 'rest'.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Military Story
There's a curious story that comes out of Focus news magazine today over the German army (the Bundeswehr).
There's a confidential 'leak' that occurred and the info came to BILD (the German newspaper). The leak says that right now....there are 25,000 positions vacant in the German army and they are having serious problems in filling vacancies. Adding to this situation, the same leak says that out of the typical 760,000 kids who reach 18 years old.....only half of them are qualified/capable of being accepted. Of the remaining non-capable kids.....if they did have an interest....they'd have to ask for a waiver because of issues.
The problems? They don't go into a lot of details.
If you go and just view the 16-to-18 year old crowd in Germany, you tend to view some kids who are seriously out of shape and probably at least ten-percent of them would have weight issues preventing them military service.
You have to remember as well, that it's a volunteer service.....so they require a physical, a fitness standard prior to signing the contract, and even an aptitude test that you 'must' pass before entering service. If you marginally made it through school, the odds are against you having enough of a score to qualify yourself. This is not like the draft era of the 1970s where they took even marginally qualified folks.
An indication of problems to come? If they are short on 25,000 positions by next year....you can figure in six to eight years that it'll double to 50,000.
What I suspect will occur as we leave the Merkel-era over the next decade, is that the German Army will agree to downsize (probably 10-to-20 percent)....so the problem will go away. Some of the pro-military crowd may grumble about this problem and the likely solution, but lets face facts.....if you are buying a major part of your natural gas each year from the most likely 'thug' to attack you.....the odds are heavily in favor of the 'thug' actually developing a friendly customer-based relationship. Beyond Russia.....no one is going to attack Germany.
There's a confidential 'leak' that occurred and the info came to BILD (the German newspaper). The leak says that right now....there are 25,000 positions vacant in the German army and they are having serious problems in filling vacancies. Adding to this situation, the same leak says that out of the typical 760,000 kids who reach 18 years old.....only half of them are qualified/capable of being accepted. Of the remaining non-capable kids.....if they did have an interest....they'd have to ask for a waiver because of issues.
The problems? They don't go into a lot of details.
If you go and just view the 16-to-18 year old crowd in Germany, you tend to view some kids who are seriously out of shape and probably at least ten-percent of them would have weight issues preventing them military service.
You have to remember as well, that it's a volunteer service.....so they require a physical, a fitness standard prior to signing the contract, and even an aptitude test that you 'must' pass before entering service. If you marginally made it through school, the odds are against you having enough of a score to qualify yourself. This is not like the draft era of the 1970s where they took even marginally qualified folks.
An indication of problems to come? If they are short on 25,000 positions by next year....you can figure in six to eight years that it'll double to 50,000.
What I suspect will occur as we leave the Merkel-era over the next decade, is that the German Army will agree to downsize (probably 10-to-20 percent)....so the problem will go away. Some of the pro-military crowd may grumble about this problem and the likely solution, but lets face facts.....if you are buying a major part of your natural gas each year from the most likely 'thug' to attack you.....the odds are heavily in favor of the 'thug' actually developing a friendly customer-based relationship. Beyond Russia.....no one is going to attack Germany.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Power Story
In the early hours of this morning (Saturday, the 26th of January)....the German government concluded it's talks with the coal commission. Basically, it was agreed upon that all coal-powered power plants will terminate in 2038. The coal plant operators will be compensated in some way.....the employees will compensated in some way.....and Germany will be left with strictly water-power, solar power, wind-power, natural gas-power, and imported energy from that point on.
Twenty years to depart from coal power? The environmentalists won this discussion but you have to wonder about what the future holds at this point.
If you go and look at renewable energy (biomass, wind and solar)....Germany has reached the 42-percent of the grid being from this delivery vehicle.
Nuke power? Presently around 15 percent. Coal would amount upwards to 30 to 35 percent. What happens when both are shut down?
This is one of the curious questions because wind and solar are simply not reliable methods of electrical power. Typically, you need to have a 'backup'. Natural gas? Well, this is one of those things that no one speaks much about. You have to wonder about this urgency to complete the Russian pipeline deal in the next couple of years and if there's some idea about having five or six natural gas plants (at a hefty cost) to be the grand back-up situation.
The odds that other countries will be contacted in 2038 for purchase details? If I were France or Poland, I'd bulk up my capability and be prepared to answer the phone. Sure....I'll sell you power from my nuclear reactor.....twice the normal cost value, and just grin as I force the Germans to buy nuke power or coal power.
Twenty years to depart from coal power? The environmentalists won this discussion but you have to wonder about what the future holds at this point.
If you go and look at renewable energy (biomass, wind and solar)....Germany has reached the 42-percent of the grid being from this delivery vehicle.
Nuke power? Presently around 15 percent. Coal would amount upwards to 30 to 35 percent. What happens when both are shut down?
This is one of the curious questions because wind and solar are simply not reliable methods of electrical power. Typically, you need to have a 'backup'. Natural gas? Well, this is one of those things that no one speaks much about. You have to wonder about this urgency to complete the Russian pipeline deal in the next couple of years and if there's some idea about having five or six natural gas plants (at a hefty cost) to be the grand back-up situation.
The odds that other countries will be contacted in 2038 for purchase details? If I were France or Poland, I'd bulk up my capability and be prepared to answer the phone. Sure....I'll sell you power from my nuclear reactor.....twice the normal cost value, and just grin as I force the Germans to buy nuke power or coal power.
Cancer Drug Story
It's a page two type story from ARD (public German TV, Channel One) that ought to concern a lot of Germans, but most probably won't see it. ARD reports of a police raid episode. This raid took place in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, and in Hungary/Switzerland. The target? Fake cancer drugs.
So what is said is that some pharmaceutical wholesaler in the region of Baden-Württemberg is suspected of getting into fake cancer drugs about a year ago.
Cops say....you have to believe that they know what they are talking about....that there was never any danger to cancer patients. Whatever was in the original product....was copied clearly enough to be 'safe'.
So the guy in question made up the pills.....the package itself....and the information sheets that go into each box. He went to a lot of trouble.
His cut of profit? Unknown.
How this was figured out? A second pharmaceutical wholesaler picked up on the fake drugs at some point.
So what is said is that some pharmaceutical wholesaler in the region of Baden-Württemberg is suspected of getting into fake cancer drugs about a year ago.
Cops say....you have to believe that they know what they are talking about....that there was never any danger to cancer patients. Whatever was in the original product....was copied clearly enough to be 'safe'.
So the guy in question made up the pills.....the package itself....and the information sheets that go into each box. He went to a lot of trouble.
His cut of profit? Unknown.
How this was figured out? A second pharmaceutical wholesaler picked up on the fake drugs at some point.
Bridge Story
It's a short six-line type story via a number of news groups in Germany, which ought to be of concern to most all Germans.
The Transport Ministry has spoken up on Friday and said in a clear manner....that of the 39,600 bridges that are federal responsibility (not state or local responsibility).....that 12-percent are in a serious condition and need renovation or replacement.
Statistically, it means if you passed over 16 federal bridges today going and returning from work....at least two of them were leaning more toward failure, than leaning toward safe.
It ought to bother a lot of Germans, but what you end up with is a priority list and x-amount of funding. So each year comes up and contracts are given out to replace the worst-case bridges. And to be honest, that only covers the federal bridges (mostly related to autobahns or federal roads).
The Transport Ministry has spoken up on Friday and said in a clear manner....that of the 39,600 bridges that are federal responsibility (not state or local responsibility).....that 12-percent are in a serious condition and need renovation or replacement.
Statistically, it means if you passed over 16 federal bridges today going and returning from work....at least two of them were leaning more toward failure, than leaning toward safe.
It ought to bother a lot of Germans, but what you end up with is a priority list and x-amount of funding. So each year comes up and contracts are given out to replace the worst-case bridges. And to be honest, that only covers the federal bridges (mostly related to autobahns or federal roads).
Friday, January 25, 2019
Budget Money Left Over
I often discuss the topic of German jobs, and job-training. There's a piece that came up today via ARD (public TV, Channel One) which makes you ask a number of questions.
Via the Bundestag, the Linke Party asked a question that required research by the government, and the question centered on how much funding was left in the 'bucket' at the end of each year....UNSPENT. We are talking about programs for job-training and certification, and the allocation of funding.
So the answer? For 2018.....roughly 1.1-billion Euro (1.3 billion US dollars).
They started the year with around 4-billion Euro, and a quarter of the funding never got spent.
The trend line goes from 500-million Euro to a billion Euro....generally left over at the end of each year.
One of the big negatives of people over the age of thirty who get unemployed for long periods....is that they tend to have never finished their training program or gotten their certification. So you look at this 'bucket' of funding sitting and just kinda wonder.....why couldn't they go and take 10,000 of these folks who have five-plus years of unemployment, and use the leftover funding to finally get them trained and out working.
The problem here though is that if you go to each Job-Center....literally a thousand of them around the country....each has a differing amount left, and their focus is strictly upon their little piece of the pie. None of them are envisioning the 1.1 billion Euro just sitting there and wasting away in terms of a national problem.
Via the Bundestag, the Linke Party asked a question that required research by the government, and the question centered on how much funding was left in the 'bucket' at the end of each year....UNSPENT. We are talking about programs for job-training and certification, and the allocation of funding.
So the answer? For 2018.....roughly 1.1-billion Euro (1.3 billion US dollars).
They started the year with around 4-billion Euro, and a quarter of the funding never got spent.
The trend line goes from 500-million Euro to a billion Euro....generally left over at the end of each year.
One of the big negatives of people over the age of thirty who get unemployed for long periods....is that they tend to have never finished their training program or gotten their certification. So you look at this 'bucket' of funding sitting and just kinda wonder.....why couldn't they go and take 10,000 of these folks who have five-plus years of unemployment, and use the leftover funding to finally get them trained and out working.
The problem here though is that if you go to each Job-Center....literally a thousand of them around the country....each has a differing amount left, and their focus is strictly upon their little piece of the pie. None of them are envisioning the 1.1 billion Euro just sitting there and wasting away in terms of a national problem.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Diesel Car Business
So it came out today in Germany, via ARD (public TV, Channel One) that 112 pulmonary doctors have voiced the criticism about the banning of diesel cars, and how this EU law was created without sufficient research.
Some medical doctors are voicing concern about this group and suggesting that some research has been done, and leads onto concern about health in a metropolitan atmosphere where diesel cars often operate.
Where this is going? More research, and probably enough of a question mark that only minor bans (like one single avenue in a city) will occur at this point.
The driving force? Here's the issue....this level that the EU used in this law, from their episode a decade ago to enforce 'clean' air upon Europe....might not have been concluded with absolute evidence, and some folks might have overreacted in creating this clean-air agenda. Adding to it....if cigarette smoking and regular exercise figure into this....how would you handle health concerns after you dismiss diesel cars? Would you go and ban all cigarette smoking in cities or towns? Would you mandate one-miles walks everyday?
In some ways, this reaction is opening up a can of worms. Presently, I would suggest that entire cities going full-throttle to ban diesel cars in 2019.....probably won't occur, and judges will demand someone (obviously in the Bundestag) go and create a new research project (likely to take at least two years to complete).
Yeah, it's a mess.
Some medical doctors are voicing concern about this group and suggesting that some research has been done, and leads onto concern about health in a metropolitan atmosphere where diesel cars often operate.
Where this is going? More research, and probably enough of a question mark that only minor bans (like one single avenue in a city) will occur at this point.
The driving force? Here's the issue....this level that the EU used in this law, from their episode a decade ago to enforce 'clean' air upon Europe....might not have been concluded with absolute evidence, and some folks might have overreacted in creating this clean-air agenda. Adding to it....if cigarette smoking and regular exercise figure into this....how would you handle health concerns after you dismiss diesel cars? Would you go and ban all cigarette smoking in cities or towns? Would you mandate one-miles walks everyday?
In some ways, this reaction is opening up a can of worms. Presently, I would suggest that entire cities going full-throttle to ban diesel cars in 2019.....probably won't occur, and judges will demand someone (obviously in the Bundestag) go and create a new research project (likely to take at least two years to complete).
Yeah, it's a mess.
Charges Written Up
The Wiesbaden prosecutor's office came out this morning and laid out the charges now for the Iraqi guy accused in the summer 2018 murder of a Mainz 14-year old girl. The local Wiesbadenktuell folks reported the basic story.
To summarize the episode (it is a fairly long and 'epic' story)....X was an Iraqi guy who left the region with his family (father, mother and brothers) in 2015 because of the ISIS civil war. Oddly enough (never explained in any detail), he and the family end up in a refugee/asylum center in Germany where they quietly avoid for almost an entire year....applying for a German visa. When they finally are forced into the application process, a few months pass and they are denied a visa. No details from the authorities have ever explained why. X starts the process of an appeal.
The family is granted a temp visa and moved into a house in the Erbenheim region of Wiesbaden. One of the brothers will become friends with a German-Jewish girl from Mainz. X, the 20-year old, gets into various legal matters while in this waiting status. The chief matter reported is a robbery and assault in April of 2018 within a city park of Wiesbaden.
So a few weeks after that assault, X does a rape assault on the 14-year old Mainz girl, and afterwards....she threatens to report him to the police. X strangles the girl and then buries her in a local farm area.
Cops can't find any body, so they can only ask questions. X determines that staying in Germany isn't smart....so he arranges via the Iraqi government for entry papers into Iraq (with a different name). You would think that the suggestion of an abduction and disappearance...would have led to the cops monitoring him more, but since there is no body, there are no charges. So he and the family go out of Germany, returning to Iraq.
The local cops are led just about at this exit time....by an Afghan kid (13 years old at this point) to the graveside. The kid lives in the same building and knew some parts to the story. At some point, the local authorities applaud the 'courage' of the young kid to share information.
Regional authorities can now proceed to detaining X, but realize now.....he's left the country. Getting to him in Iraq? Well....there's no extradition treaty, so the federal authorities and the German Justice Ministry hint that it might be months or years before they can get this guy. The local cops? They contact the local cops where X landed (Kurdish cops), and within 24 hours, they have the guy.
Yep, shocker. They also start questioning him, and he tells the whole story.
Now the next shocker, with the German federal prosecutor folks talking about the woes of extradition....the Kurdish cops say come and get him without the extradition paperwork. So a local chief cop gets on a plane....flies into Iraq, and takes possession. Yes, this kinda infuriates the German legal folks and probably will be a sour point in the prosecution, but X then arrives back in Germany.
So today....charges are put up on the board. Rape and murder charges will be attempted.
Oddly enough, the prosecution team has put up an additional rape....an 11-year old refugee girl from the local area as well. The Afghan kid (now 14 years old)? Well....there's charges on him for sexual assault as well. There's also a mention of threats made by the kid against victims.
Timeframe of this case? The journalists left this out of the story but I would imagine that it'd start by mid-summer. Will X be treated as a juvenile? All of these suggested crimes occurred with the guy in the 19-to-20 age bracket, which typically means being treated as a juvenile. Some Germans will question this handling but it's the typical acceptance of German society that anyone under 21 is not really an adult.
The 14-year old Afghan kid? He will be treated as a juvenile in his case.
A story worth a movie? This is the odd thing about the story.....there are at least 300 pages of script that you could weave out of this....this saga of how X and the family left Iraq. The months in the German refugee center. The leaning of X toward a criminal situation. The Jewish girl from Mainz. The murder. The entry papers. The escape from Germany. The Kurds finding X. The recovery of X back to Germany. The authorities basically admitting that with all these disciplinary problems before the murder....no one wanted to take any firm hand with X.
To summarize the episode (it is a fairly long and 'epic' story)....X was an Iraqi guy who left the region with his family (father, mother and brothers) in 2015 because of the ISIS civil war. Oddly enough (never explained in any detail), he and the family end up in a refugee/asylum center in Germany where they quietly avoid for almost an entire year....applying for a German visa. When they finally are forced into the application process, a few months pass and they are denied a visa. No details from the authorities have ever explained why. X starts the process of an appeal.
The family is granted a temp visa and moved into a house in the Erbenheim region of Wiesbaden. One of the brothers will become friends with a German-Jewish girl from Mainz. X, the 20-year old, gets into various legal matters while in this waiting status. The chief matter reported is a robbery and assault in April of 2018 within a city park of Wiesbaden.
So a few weeks after that assault, X does a rape assault on the 14-year old Mainz girl, and afterwards....she threatens to report him to the police. X strangles the girl and then buries her in a local farm area.
Cops can't find any body, so they can only ask questions. X determines that staying in Germany isn't smart....so he arranges via the Iraqi government for entry papers into Iraq (with a different name). You would think that the suggestion of an abduction and disappearance...would have led to the cops monitoring him more, but since there is no body, there are no charges. So he and the family go out of Germany, returning to Iraq.
The local cops are led just about at this exit time....by an Afghan kid (13 years old at this point) to the graveside. The kid lives in the same building and knew some parts to the story. At some point, the local authorities applaud the 'courage' of the young kid to share information.
Regional authorities can now proceed to detaining X, but realize now.....he's left the country. Getting to him in Iraq? Well....there's no extradition treaty, so the federal authorities and the German Justice Ministry hint that it might be months or years before they can get this guy. The local cops? They contact the local cops where X landed (Kurdish cops), and within 24 hours, they have the guy.
Yep, shocker. They also start questioning him, and he tells the whole story.
Now the next shocker, with the German federal prosecutor folks talking about the woes of extradition....the Kurdish cops say come and get him without the extradition paperwork. So a local chief cop gets on a plane....flies into Iraq, and takes possession. Yes, this kinda infuriates the German legal folks and probably will be a sour point in the prosecution, but X then arrives back in Germany.
So today....charges are put up on the board. Rape and murder charges will be attempted.
Oddly enough, the prosecution team has put up an additional rape....an 11-year old refugee girl from the local area as well. The Afghan kid (now 14 years old)? Well....there's charges on him for sexual assault as well. There's also a mention of threats made by the kid against victims.
Timeframe of this case? The journalists left this out of the story but I would imagine that it'd start by mid-summer. Will X be treated as a juvenile? All of these suggested crimes occurred with the guy in the 19-to-20 age bracket, which typically means being treated as a juvenile. Some Germans will question this handling but it's the typical acceptance of German society that anyone under 21 is not really an adult.
The 14-year old Afghan kid? He will be treated as a juvenile in his case.
A story worth a movie? This is the odd thing about the story.....there are at least 300 pages of script that you could weave out of this....this saga of how X and the family left Iraq. The months in the German refugee center. The leaning of X toward a criminal situation. The Jewish girl from Mainz. The murder. The entry papers. The escape from Germany. The Kurds finding X. The recovery of X back to Germany. The authorities basically admitting that with all these disciplinary problems before the murder....no one wanted to take any firm hand with X.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Bridge Story
Back around four years ago in the Wiesbaden-Mainz region.....with a massive bridge-building project underway near the west end of the urban zone (next to the old Schierstein bridge).....a five-star accident occurred underneath the old bridge.
The plan by the construction crowd was to build the replacement bridge just 'inches' away from the old bridge. It made sense in terms of the location and design.
Well...some member of the construction crew 'bumped' the column holding up the old and yet still vastly used bridge. The new bridge? It was two years away from completion. Well over 100,000 cars transited this old bridge daily, and it's one of only three bridges in the whole Wiesbaden-Mainz area, with the Rhine dividing the two communities.
All 'hell' broke loose as the shut down traffic and did an inspection of the bridge worthiness. In simple terms, your time to cross the river suddenly had an entire hour to two hours added. Around three to four months later when they'd done support support work and allowed limited use of the bridge....everyone was hyped-up and frustrated with mess.
Even to some degree today, with people still waiting on the completion of the new bridge....traffic is slowed and people still think about that simple little 'bump' on the column.
So why bring this story up? About a mile away, on the Wiesbaden side of the river....connected to A66 (the autobahn)....there's this four-lane bridge (Salzbachtalbrucke). It doesn't cross a river but it crosses another road underneath. Again, more than 100,000 vehicles cross this daily. Renovation was going on around this bridge for the autobahn, and as you might suspect by this point in the story......another work-crew member screwed up the stability of a column.
Yes, they've shut down the four-lane situation, and allowing only one-lane for each direction.
Yes, it's triggered in the past 24 hours.....massive traffic staus (traffic jams), and people are again getting peppy and frustrated.
Yes, there's talk of weeks...maybe months....of work to strengthen the column and to make this bridge safe again.
This is one of the issues of living around the Wiesbaden-Mainz area. For an area (the metropolitan region and the outlying area)....there's well over one-million residents, and the traffic design is of a marginal design. Alternate routes don't really exist, and bottle-necks are a day-to-day event.
The plan by the construction crowd was to build the replacement bridge just 'inches' away from the old bridge. It made sense in terms of the location and design.
Well...some member of the construction crew 'bumped' the column holding up the old and yet still vastly used bridge. The new bridge? It was two years away from completion. Well over 100,000 cars transited this old bridge daily, and it's one of only three bridges in the whole Wiesbaden-Mainz area, with the Rhine dividing the two communities.
All 'hell' broke loose as the shut down traffic and did an inspection of the bridge worthiness. In simple terms, your time to cross the river suddenly had an entire hour to two hours added. Around three to four months later when they'd done support support work and allowed limited use of the bridge....everyone was hyped-up and frustrated with mess.
Even to some degree today, with people still waiting on the completion of the new bridge....traffic is slowed and people still think about that simple little 'bump' on the column.
So why bring this story up? About a mile away, on the Wiesbaden side of the river....connected to A66 (the autobahn)....there's this four-lane bridge (Salzbachtalbrucke). It doesn't cross a river but it crosses another road underneath. Again, more than 100,000 vehicles cross this daily. Renovation was going on around this bridge for the autobahn, and as you might suspect by this point in the story......another work-crew member screwed up the stability of a column.
Yes, they've shut down the four-lane situation, and allowing only one-lane for each direction.
Yes, it's triggered in the past 24 hours.....massive traffic staus (traffic jams), and people are again getting peppy and frustrated.
Yes, there's talk of weeks...maybe months....of work to strengthen the column and to make this bridge safe again.
This is one of the issues of living around the Wiesbaden-Mainz area. For an area (the metropolitan region and the outlying area)....there's well over one-million residents, and the traffic design is of a marginal design. Alternate routes don't really exist, and bottle-necks are a day-to-day event.
Misinformation versus Disinformation
This is a topic which most people (even Germans) can't really grasp or fundamentally understand.
So a reporter goes out and finds some statistic on the internet about 'X', and writes up an entire article with the basis of this statistic as the platform of the story. A month goes by, and someone comes up to note that the foundation that wrote this original survey and statistics business.....simply hired a PhD guy and told him that the survey had to end with the statistics telling a story. Sadly, the reporter did no research and figured what he was reading was totally correct. The reporter might go and correct his writing, but months down the line....another reporter picks up the article, and writes a similar report off the first reporter's story. This is misinformation, and how it works.
Disinformation works in a different fashion. This is not about an accidental report, or a accidental statistic. In this case, you go and state something as a fact....working for months to develop a story or trend....always leading to a false perception by the public. Others join in on this effort, and attempt to make the story appear correct, while it is completely and absolutely false. There are hundreds of examples that you can use in this case....but the US efforts to garner support to lead a faction against Iraq and say that 9-11 evidence points to Saddam being the chief supporter? All false stories. Most of the evidence led to Saudi officials with some agenda, and supporting various groups to trigger the US into a conflict.
So, if some government group were to assemble police-related statistics to be collected in one single fashion, to show some non-existent trend....repeating this over and over....it's disinformation.
If some video-guy set up a scene where a dozen right-wing but masked 'hoodies' ran through a parking lot and set fire to 20 cars....releasing the video under some righteous and truth-seeking political group....it's really disinformation.
You need to develop a skeptical nature and be prepared to recognize the two trends mentioned.
So a reporter goes out and finds some statistic on the internet about 'X', and writes up an entire article with the basis of this statistic as the platform of the story. A month goes by, and someone comes up to note that the foundation that wrote this original survey and statistics business.....simply hired a PhD guy and told him that the survey had to end with the statistics telling a story. Sadly, the reporter did no research and figured what he was reading was totally correct. The reporter might go and correct his writing, but months down the line....another reporter picks up the article, and writes a similar report off the first reporter's story. This is misinformation, and how it works.
Disinformation works in a different fashion. This is not about an accidental report, or a accidental statistic. In this case, you go and state something as a fact....working for months to develop a story or trend....always leading to a false perception by the public. Others join in on this effort, and attempt to make the story appear correct, while it is completely and absolutely false. There are hundreds of examples that you can use in this case....but the US efforts to garner support to lead a faction against Iraq and say that 9-11 evidence points to Saddam being the chief supporter? All false stories. Most of the evidence led to Saudi officials with some agenda, and supporting various groups to trigger the US into a conflict.
So, if some government group were to assemble police-related statistics to be collected in one single fashion, to show some non-existent trend....repeating this over and over....it's disinformation.
If some video-guy set up a scene where a dozen right-wing but masked 'hoodies' ran through a parking lot and set fire to 20 cars....releasing the video under some righteous and truth-seeking political group....it's really disinformation.
You need to develop a skeptical nature and be prepared to recognize the two trends mentioned.
Asylum Numbers Story
I often point out that immigration and asylum in Germany is always in 'waves' and 'ebbs'. So ARD (public TV, Channel One) came out this morning with a update on the numbers for 2018 (January through November).
For the whole 2017 period? It was 198k.
For the eleven months of 2018? 174k. A fair sized drop.
But there's this other odd statistic out there....people leaving Germany. For 2016/2017 (two year period)....roughly 2.4-million folks left.
They also tell the story that when you look at the incoming crowd flow (immigrants, not asylum-seekers), then around two-third of the 'flow' are from a European country (like Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, etc). Oddly enough, 15-percent were from Asian countries.
What changed since the peak (2015)? I think this goes to three central stories:
1. Various countries from the German border going south to Greece....erected fences and made entry more difficult.
2. Increased pressure from Italian authorities on 'rescue' vessels picking up the rubber-raft crowd and 'saving' them....occurred over the past 18 months.
3. The reality of passing a asylum review by the BamF German authorities became an open fact. If you weren't from a war-zone area, and didn't have any real pluses on your application (like German language and skillcraft knowledge)....you likely failed and were given papers to exit or be deported out of Germany. You could appeal this situation but the odds were against a reversal.
Would this all reverse the AfD political appeal? If it weren't for these occasional public episodes where assaults/murders were identified with an asylum member, it should decrease public appeal for voters to identify with the AfD. What you really need is an entire year where no real episodes occur, and the public would finally agree that the chaos from 2013 to 2017....has ended. How long before you might see the end of this 'tunnel'? Oh, I would suggest another entire decade....to lessen tensions.
For the whole 2017 period? It was 198k.
For the eleven months of 2018? 174k. A fair sized drop.
But there's this other odd statistic out there....people leaving Germany. For 2016/2017 (two year period)....roughly 2.4-million folks left.
They also tell the story that when you look at the incoming crowd flow (immigrants, not asylum-seekers), then around two-third of the 'flow' are from a European country (like Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, etc). Oddly enough, 15-percent were from Asian countries.
What changed since the peak (2015)? I think this goes to three central stories:
1. Various countries from the German border going south to Greece....erected fences and made entry more difficult.
2. Increased pressure from Italian authorities on 'rescue' vessels picking up the rubber-raft crowd and 'saving' them....occurred over the past 18 months.
3. The reality of passing a asylum review by the BamF German authorities became an open fact. If you weren't from a war-zone area, and didn't have any real pluses on your application (like German language and skillcraft knowledge)....you likely failed and were given papers to exit or be deported out of Germany. You could appeal this situation but the odds were against a reversal.
Would this all reverse the AfD political appeal? If it weren't for these occasional public episodes where assaults/murders were identified with an asylum member, it should decrease public appeal for voters to identify with the AfD. What you really need is an entire year where no real episodes occur, and the public would finally agree that the chaos from 2013 to 2017....has ended. How long before you might see the end of this 'tunnel'? Oh, I would suggest another entire decade....to lessen tensions.
Pulmonologists (When the Fat Lady Sings)
On Monday night, via the public ARD network.....the Hart Aber Fair (Hard But Fair) public forum came on. I didn't watch it. But the subject came up the next day, and it's lit a fire on public conversation in Germany on diesel cars and the particle pollution chatter.
For the show, they invited noted folks to come on and discuss where the anti-diesel car business is going. Oddly enough, they invited a pulmonologist to come on and talk the diesel particle effect on lungs. Like a five-year old kid with a balloon.....the pulmonologist punctured the entire argument....basically saying that the diesel effect was marginal (if any). Yep, it didn't matter.
So I opened up ARD news this morning, and there's article number one.....a long piece which features commentary by pulmonologists....in mostly agreement. Some will suggest otherwise, but one noted pulmonologist put the argument into an argument that you can't have a balanced statistical display unless you account for people's lack of exercise, or their addiction to cigarette smoking.
Even the numbers of deaths in Germany reported and how lack of exercise/smoking could explain those with lung disease in an entirely different way.....can be said to be 'lacking'.
This brings you to pause in the whole diesel car biased chatter, and how this mess really started.
This law being used to force the banning of diesel cars isn't a German law.....it's an EU creation. Did the EU bring in pulmonologists in their creation of the law? There's no real evidence to suggest that. The fact that no real public debate occurred in any EU country about this law prior to the EU legislative process passing it.....makes this a problem now.
If the pulmonologists are correct, and that lack of exercise and smoking are bigger contributors to death....using the EU logic, there should be a law to outlaw cigarettes and mandate exercise. Go see how quick people get infuriated about that type of law.
But here's the thing which really stands out. Ever since this ban chatter started up....going back to the fall of 2017....no one in the public TV spectrum went to pulmonologists and had a factual discussion. They avoided them in every way possible. You have to wonder, if they knew where the discussion would go if you ever dragged them into the debate.
A bigger mess now? Yes. People with diesel cars and affected by the bans....likely will go the court route and force cities to undo their ban situations. The EU? They will go to court and force the bans back into place. All of this leading to the simple fact....maybe diesel cars weren't that bad after all.
For the show, they invited noted folks to come on and discuss where the anti-diesel car business is going. Oddly enough, they invited a pulmonologist to come on and talk the diesel particle effect on lungs. Like a five-year old kid with a balloon.....the pulmonologist punctured the entire argument....basically saying that the diesel effect was marginal (if any). Yep, it didn't matter.
So I opened up ARD news this morning, and there's article number one.....a long piece which features commentary by pulmonologists....in mostly agreement. Some will suggest otherwise, but one noted pulmonologist put the argument into an argument that you can't have a balanced statistical display unless you account for people's lack of exercise, or their addiction to cigarette smoking.
Even the numbers of deaths in Germany reported and how lack of exercise/smoking could explain those with lung disease in an entirely different way.....can be said to be 'lacking'.
This brings you to pause in the whole diesel car biased chatter, and how this mess really started.
This law being used to force the banning of diesel cars isn't a German law.....it's an EU creation. Did the EU bring in pulmonologists in their creation of the law? There's no real evidence to suggest that. The fact that no real public debate occurred in any EU country about this law prior to the EU legislative process passing it.....makes this a problem now.
If the pulmonologists are correct, and that lack of exercise and smoking are bigger contributors to death....using the EU logic, there should be a law to outlaw cigarettes and mandate exercise. Go see how quick people get infuriated about that type of law.
But here's the thing which really stands out. Ever since this ban chatter started up....going back to the fall of 2017....no one in the public TV spectrum went to pulmonologists and had a factual discussion. They avoided them in every way possible. You have to wonder, if they knew where the discussion would go if you ever dragged them into the debate.
A bigger mess now? Yes. People with diesel cars and affected by the bans....likely will go the court route and force cities to undo their ban situations. The EU? They will go to court and force the bans back into place. All of this leading to the simple fact....maybe diesel cars weren't that bad after all.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Bottrop Case Closed
I wrote an essay piece from the Christmas period.....over a German guy in the Bottrop area...who drove his car into a crowd of migrants/immigrants. Note, he was not a immigrant or migrant....he was born in Germany....'pure' German.
At the time, because of chatter in the public arena about the guy having mental issues.....my belief was that the talk of murder charges would go nowhere.
Well....ARD (German public TV) stood up today and said that a court decision has been handed down....with 'reduced guilt'. Basically, he'll go in a permanent way to some psychiatry unit.
At the time, because of chatter in the public arena about the guy having mental issues.....my belief was that the talk of murder charges would go nowhere.
Well....ARD (German public TV) stood up today and said that a court decision has been handed down....with 'reduced guilt'. Basically, he'll go in a permanent way to some psychiatry unit.
Chatter over Berlin, I Love You Movie
I sat last week and observed the movie-trailer of a new 'flick' entitled "Berlin, I Love You". You can go and view the 2-minute clip over at YouTube.
What my impression is.....it's an artsy Brit-American production, with a combination of British, American and German theatrical people, with the landscape of Berlin in the background. The basic story? Based on the 2-minute clip? I'd suggest that around every single corner....there's some mad British gal ready to fall head over heels with some guy she meets at a cafe or pub. It appears to be a dozen-odd people who fit into various little short Berlin-love stories.
The problem with these type of movies....is that people sit there in Wales, or Chicago, or Seattle....getting this feeling that Berlin has all this 'love-power' and you get some element of raw emotion walking down along the river, sipping a beer, and finding some hot lusty Berlin guy or gal. So they get charged up....buy round-trip tickets to Berlin for two weeks, and generally find that it's a pretty wicked city, varying amounts of crime, drunken or drug-laced behavior, and everyone seeming to chat over the 'evil-Trump'.
I noticed this morning that Deutsche Welle got into the criticism over the movie. The thing is....the movie hasn't been released yet.....just the trailer (2 minutes of value) was released. So the criticism is based strictly on a trailer at this point.
Over the decades, I've been to most of the major German cities, and frankly....I just don't see that 'romantic' feeling about these cities. Landscape-wise, there's a lot of bold architecture and history. There's innovation going on (bike trails, sky-towers, city-parks). There's drug-infested areas. There's massive movement of people in rush-hours. There's great crowd of Chinese tourists trying to get a brief 8-hour feel for German metropolitan living. And food, beer and wine seem to be high priority.
Maybe the thrill for 'Berlin, I Love You' will recover as the movie actually arrives. Heck, maybe it'll hype some theme where every year another movie will be made (Hamburg, I Love You.....Stuttgart, I Love You.....Bremen, I Love You....even Dresden, I Love You).
What my impression is.....it's an artsy Brit-American production, with a combination of British, American and German theatrical people, with the landscape of Berlin in the background. The basic story? Based on the 2-minute clip? I'd suggest that around every single corner....there's some mad British gal ready to fall head over heels with some guy she meets at a cafe or pub. It appears to be a dozen-odd people who fit into various little short Berlin-love stories.
The problem with these type of movies....is that people sit there in Wales, or Chicago, or Seattle....getting this feeling that Berlin has all this 'love-power' and you get some element of raw emotion walking down along the river, sipping a beer, and finding some hot lusty Berlin guy or gal. So they get charged up....buy round-trip tickets to Berlin for two weeks, and generally find that it's a pretty wicked city, varying amounts of crime, drunken or drug-laced behavior, and everyone seeming to chat over the 'evil-Trump'.
I noticed this morning that Deutsche Welle got into the criticism over the movie. The thing is....the movie hasn't been released yet.....just the trailer (2 minutes of value) was released. So the criticism is based strictly on a trailer at this point.
Over the decades, I've been to most of the major German cities, and frankly....I just don't see that 'romantic' feeling about these cities. Landscape-wise, there's a lot of bold architecture and history. There's innovation going on (bike trails, sky-towers, city-parks). There's drug-infested areas. There's massive movement of people in rush-hours. There's great crowd of Chinese tourists trying to get a brief 8-hour feel for German metropolitan living. And food, beer and wine seem to be high priority.
Maybe the thrill for 'Berlin, I Love You' will recover as the movie actually arrives. Heck, maybe it'll hype some theme where every year another movie will be made (Hamburg, I Love You.....Stuttgart, I Love You.....Bremen, I Love You....even Dresden, I Love You).
Germany and Militias
Americans tend to get into this affiliation with militias. So this is one of those historical essays I write, except it's about Germans (Prussians) and roughly a 180-year period where it was acceptable to have militias around Prussia/Germany.
German militias were originally referred to as 'Freikorps' (meaning Free Corps). The first historical identification goes back to 1759 and Frederick the Great. This group of 80 men were all volunteers and they were based around the Dresden region (the far east side of what was Prussia). Oddly enough, these were all Hungarian men. By the end of 1759, four additional groups of volunteers were created....mostly of Prussian men. These four were based around other cities (Berlin, Leipzig, for example). The key thing was that they were all volunteers, and not part of any military unit.
by the late 1770s, other units had been created around Germany/Prussia and these were made up of a number of ethnic groups (Prussian, Hungarians, Turks, Cossacks, Poles, Lithuanians and Slavic men). In the Seven Years War, all of these militias played key roles.
There's a key thing about the militias that were created.....they weren't regular Army, and tended to be undisciplined. Training skills? No one ever gives them plus-points on combat-type skills. It's hard to find occasions that militia members were ever paid anything much. Most did it out of patriotic motivation (a little adventure).
Throughout the 1800s, in every single 'skirmish' or war that the Prussians had with France....the Freikorp guys showed up. Some got recognition in battles. Some commanders got noted recognition and public 'status'.
So you come to 1918....the end of WW I. Oddly enough, a large number of regular soldiers found themselves returning to communities in defeat, and by joining a local Freikorps unit....they felt they were part of a bigger team. In some ways, the local militias now became political devices.
The potential coups threats of the 1920s? All leading back to some type of militia unit.
By the fall of 1933, Hitler and the Nazi machine came to a realization....that the various Freikorp units were a threat. Over the period of three days in June and July 1934....most of the commanders of Freikorp militias (along with the Brown Shirt thugs) were detained, and in some cases executed. That basically triggered the end of the militias in Germany.
Existence today? No. Nor do I think that the Berlin crowd would appreciate such units popping up and suggesting that the police were no longer capable of providing protection.
German militias were originally referred to as 'Freikorps' (meaning Free Corps). The first historical identification goes back to 1759 and Frederick the Great. This group of 80 men were all volunteers and they were based around the Dresden region (the far east side of what was Prussia). Oddly enough, these were all Hungarian men. By the end of 1759, four additional groups of volunteers were created....mostly of Prussian men. These four were based around other cities (Berlin, Leipzig, for example). The key thing was that they were all volunteers, and not part of any military unit.
by the late 1770s, other units had been created around Germany/Prussia and these were made up of a number of ethnic groups (Prussian, Hungarians, Turks, Cossacks, Poles, Lithuanians and Slavic men). In the Seven Years War, all of these militias played key roles.
There's a key thing about the militias that were created.....they weren't regular Army, and tended to be undisciplined. Training skills? No one ever gives them plus-points on combat-type skills. It's hard to find occasions that militia members were ever paid anything much. Most did it out of patriotic motivation (a little adventure).
Throughout the 1800s, in every single 'skirmish' or war that the Prussians had with France....the Freikorp guys showed up. Some got recognition in battles. Some commanders got noted recognition and public 'status'.
So you come to 1918....the end of WW I. Oddly enough, a large number of regular soldiers found themselves returning to communities in defeat, and by joining a local Freikorps unit....they felt they were part of a bigger team. In some ways, the local militias now became political devices.
The potential coups threats of the 1920s? All leading back to some type of militia unit.
By the fall of 1933, Hitler and the Nazi machine came to a realization....that the various Freikorp units were a threat. Over the period of three days in June and July 1934....most of the commanders of Freikorp militias (along with the Brown Shirt thugs) were detained, and in some cases executed. That basically triggered the end of the militias in Germany.
Existence today? No. Nor do I think that the Berlin crowd would appreciate such units popping up and suggesting that the police were no longer capable of providing protection.
Monday, January 21, 2019
How a Myth Carried Germany into the 1930s
In historical texts.....you might rarely come across the German phrase: 'Dolchstoßlegende', which translates back over to the phrase: stab in the back myth. This is one of those historical essays that I'll write to tell a little piece of German history.
So, when we come to the end of WW I.....things get messy with the German loss, and the humiliation factor surges to an absolute maximum level.
The best sense to view the 'myth' is that when German men returned from the war, they felt a need to create a blame scenario for the loss. Political folks and journalists in various ways helped to carry the myth to the people and it was routinely discussed.
Blaming the shift away from the Kaiser and the monarchy-style government? As the war ended, it was a fairly quick way in which the Kaiser was forced to leave and a republic government was put into place as the savior. The thought by the war veterans is that these pro-republic folks....were always intent on dismissing the Kaiser and they probably helped to make the German effort in the war to be doomed failure.
The question of the pro-republic intent? There is no doubt that anti-monarchy and anti-Kaiser enthusiasm existed prior to 1914. But the length of this war and the great losses to society (in the range of 2.2 to 2.8 million men)....triggered a public disbelief over the Kaiser's stance.
As for the question of this myth lingering throughout the 1920s of Germany? I would imagine if you walked into any beer-hall and veterans were in attendance....the topic got brought up. There's no doubt that it interfered with the progress of the Weimar Republic, and helped in some ways to deliver the Nationalist-Socialist agenda to the German people in 1930.
Trying to explain this in modern times? Imagine some event occuring and total disbelief is the end-result. Then the disbelief reaches a level where you chat about this daily and it interferes with you or your associates 'moving ahead' or getting over the dramatic turn of events (like a Trump win in November of 2016), and out of this....some myth carries itself through the routine of each day. You seek a blame tool to convince yourself of the great loss in life or trust. That's pretty much how 1919 went with this myth.
So, when we come to the end of WW I.....things get messy with the German loss, and the humiliation factor surges to an absolute maximum level.
The best sense to view the 'myth' is that when German men returned from the war, they felt a need to create a blame scenario for the loss. Political folks and journalists in various ways helped to carry the myth to the people and it was routinely discussed.
Blaming the shift away from the Kaiser and the monarchy-style government? As the war ended, it was a fairly quick way in which the Kaiser was forced to leave and a republic government was put into place as the savior. The thought by the war veterans is that these pro-republic folks....were always intent on dismissing the Kaiser and they probably helped to make the German effort in the war to be doomed failure.
The question of the pro-republic intent? There is no doubt that anti-monarchy and anti-Kaiser enthusiasm existed prior to 1914. But the length of this war and the great losses to society (in the range of 2.2 to 2.8 million men)....triggered a public disbelief over the Kaiser's stance.
As for the question of this myth lingering throughout the 1920s of Germany? I would imagine if you walked into any beer-hall and veterans were in attendance....the topic got brought up. There's no doubt that it interfered with the progress of the Weimar Republic, and helped in some ways to deliver the Nationalist-Socialist agenda to the German people in 1930.
Trying to explain this in modern times? Imagine some event occuring and total disbelief is the end-result. Then the disbelief reaches a level where you chat about this daily and it interferes with you or your associates 'moving ahead' or getting over the dramatic turn of events (like a Trump win in November of 2016), and out of this....some myth carries itself through the routine of each day. You seek a blame tool to convince yourself of the great loss in life or trust. That's pretty much how 1919 went with this myth.
German Security Story
When the German cops reach a point where they try to make a dent in clan-mafia or far-left radical operations.....there's usually 'push-back'.
So today, I noticed story out of Berlin from Tagesspiegel . Someone from last night hit the city-police parking lot in the Neukolln neighborhood of town.....set fire to nine public service vehicles.
The reaction by the police? Just an investigation right now, and a review of video cameras. Potential is there for far-left radicals, and for the clan-mafia folks.
So today, I noticed story out of Berlin from Tagesspiegel . Someone from last night hit the city-police parking lot in the Neukolln neighborhood of town.....set fire to nine public service vehicles.
The reaction by the police? Just an investigation right now, and a review of video cameras. Potential is there for far-left radicals, and for the clan-mafia folks.
Can You Measure Poverty in Some Clear Manner?
Back around twenty-five years ago in Germany, a long discussion started up and the talk centered on the escalating cost of welfare, and the anticipation that old welfare system of Germany would create a massive problem in the future which the country (and it's politicians) could not afford. So this Frankenstein-creation came to be written up as a solution (Hartz IV is the program name).
What it basically did was take those unemployed or under-employed (on part-time jobs), and slide them into a group which the local town Job-Center would handle. Through their encouragement, training programs, and 'help'....things would be on a level path. The welfare payments? Well...they turned into a minimum survival program. In some ways, the German idea was to strongly encourage people to get aggressive and motivated to find jobs.....to climb out of poverty.
Twenty years have gone by with the results of Hartz IV. You could sit down in a pub with a dozen Germans, and you'd get a dozen opinions. Some are pro-Hartz IV....some are bitterly negative about the program. Some will say it's created a new class of super-poverty in Germany. Some will suggest that the Job-Center folks need to be gutted out and recreated.
We have a number of reality shows over the past couple of years which have focused on the poverty folks and their path down Hartz IV. I can basically make five observations over the people in the reality shows and their results with poverty:
1. A heck of a lot of these individuals on the welfare program smoke excessively or drink in a habitual way (if not an alcoholic, then progressing to that level). You consider that a pack of smokes typically run 5.0 to 6.0 Euro (for twenty smokes) and you do one pack a day.....you can figure 150 Euro is spent (that's 190 US dollars). Even if you buy the raw tobacco and pack the smokes yourself....it's still two-third's of the 150 Euro. I sat and watched some documentary piece where a guy was purchasing a dozen cheap beers per day (it amounts to 4 Euro or 5 US dollars). Go take the 416 Euro which you get per adult, and deduct out the beer and smokes.....with your housing already covered via another program, and there's really not much left for food or anything else.
If you didn't smoke or drink? That's the point where the money would be sufficient.
2. For people without job training or a certification in some skill? There's no real job potential if you get unemployed by age forty. You will end up making the same amount of pay related to Hartz IV....so why work? You see this argument presented a great deal by those who've been unemployed for more than five years.
3. While some of these individuals on the German poverty program seem to be bright or potentially 'capable'.....I would suggest that more than a third of them (at least 33-percent)....are intelligence-challenged. These are the people that you could ask what's one-third of an hour, and even after two minutes....they are still doing the math or shaking their head.
4. Some of these people often featured on the welfare-poverty shows demonstrate a continual lack of economic knowledge or poor purchasing habits. You can present three 'deals', of which two are obvious as being poor purchases or bad-judgement situations.....and you see a number of poverty-players not able to grasp the deals or how they are making poor decisions.
5. Finally, while not the norm....you often see adults in this poverty-class who've gone to low-motivation in life and being in a poverty class isn't that big of a deal. So this make you question how you can write or draft up logical measurements for measuring if people are in poverty, or if they desire to get out or leave it.
I come to this end-point....that present measurements that you make (at least in Germany).....aren't capable of measuring poverty or its consequences. In some ways, we are working with a method that probably came out of the 1960s, and simply avoid recognizing the general manner or sequence to how the guy or gal reached this level, their present way of living in the manner, or the way of getting them out of the situation.
What it basically did was take those unemployed or under-employed (on part-time jobs), and slide them into a group which the local town Job-Center would handle. Through their encouragement, training programs, and 'help'....things would be on a level path. The welfare payments? Well...they turned into a minimum survival program. In some ways, the German idea was to strongly encourage people to get aggressive and motivated to find jobs.....to climb out of poverty.
Twenty years have gone by with the results of Hartz IV. You could sit down in a pub with a dozen Germans, and you'd get a dozen opinions. Some are pro-Hartz IV....some are bitterly negative about the program. Some will say it's created a new class of super-poverty in Germany. Some will suggest that the Job-Center folks need to be gutted out and recreated.
We have a number of reality shows over the past couple of years which have focused on the poverty folks and their path down Hartz IV. I can basically make five observations over the people in the reality shows and their results with poverty:
1. A heck of a lot of these individuals on the welfare program smoke excessively or drink in a habitual way (if not an alcoholic, then progressing to that level). You consider that a pack of smokes typically run 5.0 to 6.0 Euro (for twenty smokes) and you do one pack a day.....you can figure 150 Euro is spent (that's 190 US dollars). Even if you buy the raw tobacco and pack the smokes yourself....it's still two-third's of the 150 Euro. I sat and watched some documentary piece where a guy was purchasing a dozen cheap beers per day (it amounts to 4 Euro or 5 US dollars). Go take the 416 Euro which you get per adult, and deduct out the beer and smokes.....with your housing already covered via another program, and there's really not much left for food or anything else.
If you didn't smoke or drink? That's the point where the money would be sufficient.
2. For people without job training or a certification in some skill? There's no real job potential if you get unemployed by age forty. You will end up making the same amount of pay related to Hartz IV....so why work? You see this argument presented a great deal by those who've been unemployed for more than five years.
3. While some of these individuals on the German poverty program seem to be bright or potentially 'capable'.....I would suggest that more than a third of them (at least 33-percent)....are intelligence-challenged. These are the people that you could ask what's one-third of an hour, and even after two minutes....they are still doing the math or shaking their head.
4. Some of these people often featured on the welfare-poverty shows demonstrate a continual lack of economic knowledge or poor purchasing habits. You can present three 'deals', of which two are obvious as being poor purchases or bad-judgement situations.....and you see a number of poverty-players not able to grasp the deals or how they are making poor decisions.
5. Finally, while not the norm....you often see adults in this poverty-class who've gone to low-motivation in life and being in a poverty class isn't that big of a deal. So this make you question how you can write or draft up logical measurements for measuring if people are in poverty, or if they desire to get out or leave it.
I come to this end-point....that present measurements that you make (at least in Germany).....aren't capable of measuring poverty or its consequences. In some ways, we are working with a method that probably came out of the 1960s, and simply avoid recognizing the general manner or sequence to how the guy or gal reached this level, their present way of living in the manner, or the way of getting them out of the situation.
BREXIT, the Germans, the EU, and the 40-odd Billion Euro
If no BREXIT deal is completed? A year ago, folks would have said that just won't happen. Today, I suspect a majority of Brit are entertaining this idea. In the middle of the present deal on the table.....there is a 'quitting' fee of 40 billion Euro that the UK would pay the EU. If the deal doesn't happen....there is no 40 billion.
Here's the amusing thing....that 40 billion is kinda important for Germany and the EU.
The budget process for the EU is an inept machine.....most everyone will admit it and offer excuses. Once they set a budget up and running....it's not a one-year deal. It's a multi-year situation. So if the UK leaves the EU....because the Brits were pumping in a fair amount of money.....which a third of the contribution never came back to the EU, the UK contribution is important for the running of the EU mechanism and for the lesser country projects.
So when the deadline comes, and there's no BREXIT deal....what happens to the missing money to cover EU costs?
Well....the richer nations (like Germany) will have to cough-up the money. So you can imagine Chancellor Merkel sitting there in late summer and admitting to folks that the German government has to find at least ten billion (maybe even fifteen billion) extra Euro laying around....to hand over to the EU....of which they will hand sixty to seventy percent of the money back....and consume the rest.
Here's the more amusing part of this deal.....in 2020, Chancellor Merkel would have to come back and find another way to 10-to-15 billion Euro.
Why can't the EU just downsize it's cost and trim expenditures? Yes, that would be a curious thing to ask, but it doesn't seem to be something they are capable of performing. Naturally, this goes back to the argument that numerous Brits had in their anti-EU discussions....that the EU isn't competent for the work required.
At this point, a lot of bureaucrats (both in the EU and in the German government) would like to get this deal business over and prepare to receive the 40 billion Euro. As each day passes, it appears more and more likely that the 40 billion won't ever arrive.
So when you see the EU or German politician all hyped up over BREXIT.....there's a special reason for their anxiety.
Here's the amusing thing....that 40 billion is kinda important for Germany and the EU.
The budget process for the EU is an inept machine.....most everyone will admit it and offer excuses. Once they set a budget up and running....it's not a one-year deal. It's a multi-year situation. So if the UK leaves the EU....because the Brits were pumping in a fair amount of money.....which a third of the contribution never came back to the EU, the UK contribution is important for the running of the EU mechanism and for the lesser country projects.
So when the deadline comes, and there's no BREXIT deal....what happens to the missing money to cover EU costs?
Well....the richer nations (like Germany) will have to cough-up the money. So you can imagine Chancellor Merkel sitting there in late summer and admitting to folks that the German government has to find at least ten billion (maybe even fifteen billion) extra Euro laying around....to hand over to the EU....of which they will hand sixty to seventy percent of the money back....and consume the rest.
Here's the more amusing part of this deal.....in 2020, Chancellor Merkel would have to come back and find another way to 10-to-15 billion Euro.
Why can't the EU just downsize it's cost and trim expenditures? Yes, that would be a curious thing to ask, but it doesn't seem to be something they are capable of performing. Naturally, this goes back to the argument that numerous Brits had in their anti-EU discussions....that the EU isn't competent for the work required.
At this point, a lot of bureaucrats (both in the EU and in the German government) would like to get this deal business over and prepare to receive the 40 billion Euro. As each day passes, it appears more and more likely that the 40 billion won't ever arrive.
So when you see the EU or German politician all hyped up over BREXIT.....there's a special reason for their anxiety.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Germans and Demonstrations
The first ever demonstration that I ever noted in my life....came about ten months after I'd arrived in Germany in 1978....in Frankfurt. From the distance, what I can say is that some folks (my view was that the crowd was building up and at least several thousand) were in some protest theme concerning the Shah of Iran, and they apparently were about to encounter the Frankfurt police. Part of me wanted to stand around and observe the event, but logic swept over....and I quietly departed the area before the 'mess' started up (at least 300 protesters injured, and dozens of cops were reported in distress). The curious thing is that you could have gone around and asked a hundred working-class Germans at the time who the Shah was, and I doubt if more than 10-percent could have identified his picture or what the whole discussion was about.
Demonstrations occur on a frequent basis in Germany today. Some of these might involve a hundred folks....some might involve a hundred-thousand folks. The majority of these demonstrations are held with no violence. I'd even go and suggest that 95-percent occur now with no injuries.
Is there a higher ratio of demonstrations in Germany than the US? I tend to suggest yes. But there are different reasons for this.
First, urbanization does play a major role in German demonstrations. If you go over into the Bitburg area, and bring up this topic....the vast majority of people (probably over 90-percent) will grin and admit that they've never been to a protest or demonstration in their life. In that case, the ones who do admit a protest action....are typically farmers, in protest of government policy. However, if you went to Dortmund, or Stuttgart.....asking a hundred folks about their participation....you might find a much higher participation rate. And in their case, there could be dozens of themes over a 20-year period....that they've protested about.
Second, there is a perception in Germany that protests accomplish 'goals'. Journalists and intellectuals will suggest that mob-mentality and protest-actions....often force compromise among political folks. Part of this gimmick though....is that journalists hype this up and ask the politicians what they intend to do. If the Mayor or Premier-President responded that he's going to buy 12 new police cars to replace the dozen burned in the protest, or that he's pressing on charges that could send a dozen 'bad-boy' protesters to jail for five years.....well, that's not the theme that the journalists want as a reaction.
Third, the ability of mass transit to deliver a thousand, or ten-thousand folks to one central metropolitan area on a Saturday? There's absolutely no problem in getting ten-thousand people to central Essen or Hamburg at 12-noon.....to stage some three-hour 'walk' or protest. In a lot of US cities, it's just not possible to expect mass transit to deliver large crowds (DC and NYC might be the exceptions).
Fourth, when these key points come up for the protest action....you tend to notice that the 'advertising' or the reasons for the protest....are kept to a bare minimum. I would suggest that the German attitude about asking follow-on questions, or to dig deeper into the bulk of the logic for the protest....usually is limited or marginal. Things will sound good with three or four bullet statements, and the chatter will seem like the bulk of society is 'with them'.....but it often comes as a hyped-up action. There's some thrill then perceived by the German that for the 'greater-good'.....the protest is necessary.
So the idea of watching a protest? I think Americans are curious and occasionally drawn to view the action from a distance. I felt that way in 1978. The smarter side of me suggested that it was time to vacate the center of town and avoid whatever was going to come.
Demonstrations occur on a frequent basis in Germany today. Some of these might involve a hundred folks....some might involve a hundred-thousand folks. The majority of these demonstrations are held with no violence. I'd even go and suggest that 95-percent occur now with no injuries.
Is there a higher ratio of demonstrations in Germany than the US? I tend to suggest yes. But there are different reasons for this.
First, urbanization does play a major role in German demonstrations. If you go over into the Bitburg area, and bring up this topic....the vast majority of people (probably over 90-percent) will grin and admit that they've never been to a protest or demonstration in their life. In that case, the ones who do admit a protest action....are typically farmers, in protest of government policy. However, if you went to Dortmund, or Stuttgart.....asking a hundred folks about their participation....you might find a much higher participation rate. And in their case, there could be dozens of themes over a 20-year period....that they've protested about.
Second, there is a perception in Germany that protests accomplish 'goals'. Journalists and intellectuals will suggest that mob-mentality and protest-actions....often force compromise among political folks. Part of this gimmick though....is that journalists hype this up and ask the politicians what they intend to do. If the Mayor or Premier-President responded that he's going to buy 12 new police cars to replace the dozen burned in the protest, or that he's pressing on charges that could send a dozen 'bad-boy' protesters to jail for five years.....well, that's not the theme that the journalists want as a reaction.
Third, the ability of mass transit to deliver a thousand, or ten-thousand folks to one central metropolitan area on a Saturday? There's absolutely no problem in getting ten-thousand people to central Essen or Hamburg at 12-noon.....to stage some three-hour 'walk' or protest. In a lot of US cities, it's just not possible to expect mass transit to deliver large crowds (DC and NYC might be the exceptions).
Fourth, when these key points come up for the protest action....you tend to notice that the 'advertising' or the reasons for the protest....are kept to a bare minimum. I would suggest that the German attitude about asking follow-on questions, or to dig deeper into the bulk of the logic for the protest....usually is limited or marginal. Things will sound good with three or four bullet statements, and the chatter will seem like the bulk of society is 'with them'.....but it often comes as a hyped-up action. There's some thrill then perceived by the German that for the 'greater-good'.....the protest is necessary.
So the idea of watching a protest? I think Americans are curious and occasionally drawn to view the action from a distance. I felt that way in 1978. The smarter side of me suggested that it was time to vacate the center of town and avoid whatever was going to come.
Gelsenkirchen 'Mob' Story
This morning, if you follow regional news in Germany.....there's a cop report from last night (Saturday evening) that might disturb some folks. Focus, the German news magazine, reports the basics to the episode.
In NW Germany.....in Gelsenkirchen....all heck broke loose at the train station in town.
For those unfamiliar with Gelsenkirchen....it's an urbanized area between Dortmund and Munster. A hundred years ago, this was primarily a coal region and a working-man's town. Today? It's become an urban magnet for migrants, with job potential.
As for the incident? Roughly 20 to 30 'teens' went into riot-chaos....attacking the mass transit workers and passengers. Part of this 'game' involved taking fire extinguishers from the walls and activating them onto the crowds. At some point, the mob even picked up rocks and began to throw them at the mass transit folks.
When the cops finally arrived....they were only able to grab and hold onto three of them. Reports were written up and the parents called. One can assume that some social welfare official and a judge will sit down in the next week or two to discuss matters with the parents.
The problem here is that Germans tend to view these mob-like events as a disintegrating piece of society. Germans have confidence that you can go out in public (in the evening hours)....use mass transit to travel from their home to some movie or social-event, and then travel in a safe fashion. If some 5th-grade mentality behavior disrupts that view....then someone needs to be assigned 'blame'.
The fact that the witnesses suggest that most of the 'mob' were non-German? Well, that kinda tells part of the story. The sad thing is that while 99-percent of teenage migrant kids are observing practical rules of life....it's this other 1-percent group who are making a bad name for the vast majority.
In NW Germany.....in Gelsenkirchen....all heck broke loose at the train station in town.
For those unfamiliar with Gelsenkirchen....it's an urbanized area between Dortmund and Munster. A hundred years ago, this was primarily a coal region and a working-man's town. Today? It's become an urban magnet for migrants, with job potential.
As for the incident? Roughly 20 to 30 'teens' went into riot-chaos....attacking the mass transit workers and passengers. Part of this 'game' involved taking fire extinguishers from the walls and activating them onto the crowds. At some point, the mob even picked up rocks and began to throw them at the mass transit folks.
When the cops finally arrived....they were only able to grab and hold onto three of them. Reports were written up and the parents called. One can assume that some social welfare official and a judge will sit down in the next week or two to discuss matters with the parents.
The problem here is that Germans tend to view these mob-like events as a disintegrating piece of society. Germans have confidence that you can go out in public (in the evening hours)....use mass transit to travel from their home to some movie or social-event, and then travel in a safe fashion. If some 5th-grade mentality behavior disrupts that view....then someone needs to be assigned 'blame'.
The fact that the witnesses suggest that most of the 'mob' were non-German? Well, that kinda tells part of the story. The sad thing is that while 99-percent of teenage migrant kids are observing practical rules of life....it's this other 1-percent group who are making a bad name for the vast majority.
Chancellor Talk
There's nothing in the Basic Law (the German Constitution) that says a limit of years to be Chancellor. If you were favorable and the public voted 'correctly'.....then you could go three terms (four years each).....four terms....five terms....even six or seven terms. We are presently wrapping up year 13 of the Merkel period as Chancellor.
N-TV in Germany this morning brought up this chatter from the CSU Party in Bavaria. They want a rule written up that you can only be Chancellor for a max of 12 years.
In the party congress meeting (held in Munich).....the measure barely passed.
So the next step is to bring this up within the Bundestag. There are two issues then. The first.....will there be a majority of members to favor this (say.....from the Greens, the SPD, or even the CDU itself)? No one is suggesting how this measure might be taken. It would have to pass not only the Bundestag, but also the Bundesrat.
The second issue.....even if you got enough to agree to the idea....you have to write this text into the Constitution, and hope that the court doesn't throw it out.
N-TV in Germany this morning brought up this chatter from the CSU Party in Bavaria. They want a rule written up that you can only be Chancellor for a max of 12 years.
In the party congress meeting (held in Munich).....the measure barely passed.
So the next step is to bring this up within the Bundestag. There are two issues then. The first.....will there be a majority of members to favor this (say.....from the Greens, the SPD, or even the CDU itself)? No one is suggesting how this measure might be taken. It would have to pass not only the Bundestag, but also the Bundesrat.
The second issue.....even if you got enough to agree to the idea....you have to write this text into the Constitution, and hope that the court doesn't throw it out.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Traffic Commission Suggestions
The German goverment often appoints commissions to tell them what they should be doing (you can't trust those stupid citizens who want to suggest improvements).
So there's been this traffic and car commission that's been active, as Focus (the German news magazine) reports the story. The "National Platform Future of Mobility" commission came to a couple of ideas.
First, they say that all diesel and gas fuel taxes....should be even. If you haven't been to Germany, we run this odd taxation system. For decades, diesel fuel has been roughly 15 to 20 cents cheaper a liter, than regular gas.
Diesel car owners probably won't be happy about this suggestion, and it's likely that this will be a pretty simple thing for politicians to latch onto and accomplish.
Second, which is the more painful idea.....bring all speed limits in Germany down to 130 kph (80 mph).
If you've traveled on the German autobahn system, you will remember that about 25-percent of autobahn system is speed-regulated (usually in dense metropolitan area or in mountainous regions). The rest of the country is unlimited (well, they mean that you can drive at any speed, which you consider safe). This safe aspect usually means if it's raining....you need to reduce the speed down to 100 kph or less.
Getting the German public to accept this limit idea? No. If you go and ask a hundred Germans over the age of 18.....probably sixty-percent or more will question a reduction in the national speed limit. At least a third of the nation would go along with 130 kph, and they probably already travel at this speed anyway.
So this is the odd thing that you will come to notice on German autobahns. A fair number of Germans kinda stay in the range of 100 kph to 120 kph. I'll be driving the wife's TT (easily capable of 200 kph) and on some stretch.....she will 'yank' on my concentration to comment that the 100 kph (62 mph) that I'm driving.....is a ridiculous speed. I'll gaze around and just note that some folks are passing me, but a number of drivers are staying near the 100 to 120 kph range.
Those driving at a reckless high speed? You will find those driving at 140 to 160....maybe occasionally....even 200 kph. But there just aren't that many.
Would the speed limit change affect much of anything? I have my doubts. There's also the other side of this coin....if it makes sense to lessen this speed on the autobahn.....why not lessen B-roads (limited to 100 kph) to 80 kph at night?
This discussion probably won't go far, but it'll be entertaining to have some CDU political figure argue with a Green Party guy over this idea.
So there's been this traffic and car commission that's been active, as Focus (the German news magazine) reports the story. The "National Platform Future of Mobility" commission came to a couple of ideas.
First, they say that all diesel and gas fuel taxes....should be even. If you haven't been to Germany, we run this odd taxation system. For decades, diesel fuel has been roughly 15 to 20 cents cheaper a liter, than regular gas.
Diesel car owners probably won't be happy about this suggestion, and it's likely that this will be a pretty simple thing for politicians to latch onto and accomplish.
Second, which is the more painful idea.....bring all speed limits in Germany down to 130 kph (80 mph).
If you've traveled on the German autobahn system, you will remember that about 25-percent of autobahn system is speed-regulated (usually in dense metropolitan area or in mountainous regions). The rest of the country is unlimited (well, they mean that you can drive at any speed, which you consider safe). This safe aspect usually means if it's raining....you need to reduce the speed down to 100 kph or less.
Getting the German public to accept this limit idea? No. If you go and ask a hundred Germans over the age of 18.....probably sixty-percent or more will question a reduction in the national speed limit. At least a third of the nation would go along with 130 kph, and they probably already travel at this speed anyway.
So this is the odd thing that you will come to notice on German autobahns. A fair number of Germans kinda stay in the range of 100 kph to 120 kph. I'll be driving the wife's TT (easily capable of 200 kph) and on some stretch.....she will 'yank' on my concentration to comment that the 100 kph (62 mph) that I'm driving.....is a ridiculous speed. I'll gaze around and just note that some folks are passing me, but a number of drivers are staying near the 100 to 120 kph range.
Those driving at a reckless high speed? You will find those driving at 140 to 160....maybe occasionally....even 200 kph. But there just aren't that many.
Would the speed limit change affect much of anything? I have my doubts. There's also the other side of this coin....if it makes sense to lessen this speed on the autobahn.....why not lessen B-roads (limited to 100 kph) to 80 kph at night?
This discussion probably won't go far, but it'll be entertaining to have some CDU political figure argue with a Green Party guy over this idea.
Love Parade Update
Back in 2009, Germany held a 'Love Parade'. The basic description....going back to 1989 in West Berlin....was a parade involve techno-music, a fair amount of ecstasy (the drug) and a high number of gay participants. Most people will argue that the original parade (1989) had around 200 participants.
Over the years, the Love Parade theme grew, and became a big deal. By 2001, the parade attracted around 800,000 to a million individuals. People actually flew in to participate.
Then an odd thing happened....people dropped out. Over 2002 and 2003....the numbers grew less. At some point in the planning for the 2004 and 2005 episodes....because of lack of sponsorship and fewer numbers.....it was cancelled. In Berlin, the hype was over.
Some Germans wanted to continue the Love Parade, but in a different format. So the Ruhr region (NW Germany) sought to attract the parade. The chief idea? Bring folks to Essen. The numbers went back to roughly 1-million participants in 2007. Some folks (outside of journalism) suggest that having it there in Essen....attracted a lot of Dutch folks to attend. The feeling was that things were better planned in the northwest.
So comes 2010's Love Parade. Things went out of hand with the crowd, and at some point....21 people were killed (by the 'crush') and over 600 were injured.
For almost an entire month, this was front-page news and various political folks were demanding a full-up investigation.
What most will argue upon, is that the city planning staff and the internal planners of the Love Parade itself....failed in various ways. But this entire investigation went into a long and lengthy process. Roughly a year ago, they finally started the court case to settle the criminal accusations. The chief problem? They had x-number of months before the legality of the situation ran out.
Well....this week, the court told the participants (from both sides) that they don't think in the six months left....they can close the case and render a verdict. Hostility? A lot of people think that some people should be held personally responsible. They actually want people to suffer consequences for the 21 dead. The court basically says....it'll never happen.
Were the delays shuffled into the system to ensure everyone walked free? Some people will suggest that. In this case, justice cannot be served.
Over the years, the Love Parade theme grew, and became a big deal. By 2001, the parade attracted around 800,000 to a million individuals. People actually flew in to participate.
Then an odd thing happened....people dropped out. Over 2002 and 2003....the numbers grew less. At some point in the planning for the 2004 and 2005 episodes....because of lack of sponsorship and fewer numbers.....it was cancelled. In Berlin, the hype was over.
Some Germans wanted to continue the Love Parade, but in a different format. So the Ruhr region (NW Germany) sought to attract the parade. The chief idea? Bring folks to Essen. The numbers went back to roughly 1-million participants in 2007. Some folks (outside of journalism) suggest that having it there in Essen....attracted a lot of Dutch folks to attend. The feeling was that things were better planned in the northwest.
So comes 2010's Love Parade. Things went out of hand with the crowd, and at some point....21 people were killed (by the 'crush') and over 600 were injured.
For almost an entire month, this was front-page news and various political folks were demanding a full-up investigation.
What most will argue upon, is that the city planning staff and the internal planners of the Love Parade itself....failed in various ways. But this entire investigation went into a long and lengthy process. Roughly a year ago, they finally started the court case to settle the criminal accusations. The chief problem? They had x-number of months before the legality of the situation ran out.
Well....this week, the court told the participants (from both sides) that they don't think in the six months left....they can close the case and render a verdict. Hostility? A lot of people think that some people should be held personally responsible. They actually want people to suffer consequences for the 21 dead. The court basically says....it'll never happen.
Were the delays shuffled into the system to ensure everyone walked free? Some people will suggest that. In this case, justice cannot be served.
Safe versus Unsafe
For those who didn't know....there are two 'houses' of government in Germany. The Bundestag is the 'unit' that gets mentioned the most and often covered on TV.
The Bundesrat is the second 'unit'. You could refer to them as the Federal Council. They are put there to represent the states themselves (16 of them). In some ways, you could compare it to the US Senate, although they rarely get real publicity or public forum time.
Today, they came up in the news because the government (Chancellor Merkel and the coalition)....wanted to redraw the 'safe' countries. If you attempted to claim asylum from the safe countries list, based on war or civil conflict.....Germany has a higher acceptance rate. So Germany was going to put Georgia, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco on the safe list. The Bundestag passed the change with no problem. But over in the Bundesrat.....there's a fair number of seats controlled by the Green Party.....who apparently will vote 'no' on this safe country change.
It is a sort of comical game being played out. If you go over to the TUI-vacation site, you can readily book a week or two at some Moroccan or Tunisian five star hotel. In the midst of summer, there's probably a minimum of one plane per day flying to either country with German tourists....seeking sun and fun. They will party it up for a full week or two. So suggesting that either of those two countries are 'dangerous' or unsafe? It's a joke.
Algeria? There's zero German tourism, and folks might agree on the dangerous category.
Georgia? It's not typically a vacation spot or Germans. Last year, I watched some travel documentary piece off German TV that featured Georgia, and and they made it into some enchanted 'wonderland' for tourism. Out of the Frankfurt airport, there's at least one plane every day that takes off to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia).
This argument over making the switch on countries from unsafe to safe? It's more or less a joke. Using these standards, some Germans ought to inspect Chicago, and declare it unsafe.....allowing Chicago folks to claim asylum in Germany.
The Bundesrat is the second 'unit'. You could refer to them as the Federal Council. They are put there to represent the states themselves (16 of them). In some ways, you could compare it to the US Senate, although they rarely get real publicity or public forum time.
Today, they came up in the news because the government (Chancellor Merkel and the coalition)....wanted to redraw the 'safe' countries. If you attempted to claim asylum from the safe countries list, based on war or civil conflict.....Germany has a higher acceptance rate. So Germany was going to put Georgia, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco on the safe list. The Bundestag passed the change with no problem. But over in the Bundesrat.....there's a fair number of seats controlled by the Green Party.....who apparently will vote 'no' on this safe country change.
It is a sort of comical game being played out. If you go over to the TUI-vacation site, you can readily book a week or two at some Moroccan or Tunisian five star hotel. In the midst of summer, there's probably a minimum of one plane per day flying to either country with German tourists....seeking sun and fun. They will party it up for a full week or two. So suggesting that either of those two countries are 'dangerous' or unsafe? It's a joke.
Algeria? There's zero German tourism, and folks might agree on the dangerous category.
Georgia? It's not typically a vacation spot or Germans. Last year, I watched some travel documentary piece off German TV that featured Georgia, and and they made it into some enchanted 'wonderland' for tourism. Out of the Frankfurt airport, there's at least one plane every day that takes off to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia).
This argument over making the switch on countries from unsafe to safe? It's more or less a joke. Using these standards, some Germans ought to inspect Chicago, and declare it unsafe.....allowing Chicago folks to claim asylum in Germany.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
The Bahn Story
ARD put up a serious story on the Bahn system (the national railway network) today. The emphasis? A state of financial failure.
The German Federal Court of Auditors finally published fairly in depth piece and it's pretty critical on the German government.
Their hint is that for 25 years....there's been no real national plan or agenda for the Bahn.
Present debt by the Bahn? Twenty billion Euro.
Adding to the year by year mess....in this 25-year period, there's been barely any real rise in the number of people using it. The freight traffic? That has gone down by almost 20-percent over the same period.
The chief organization in the government holding the 'stick' over the Bahn? The Transportation Ministry. You can go through various coalition governments and find the same tendency.....a lot of talk, but no real path to controlling the debt or improving the mess.
Since 1978 when I first rode the German railway, I've come to three conclusions about the Bahn:
1. Between on-time service and reliability.....there's no network in Europe that matches their level of competence.
2. Cost-wise, it's relatively cheap.
3. In terms of safety, you find their efforts to be something that you can appreciate.
But if you take this debt thing, and the zero-plan situation serious...it leads to two serious issues which people don't want to face. First, tickets probably need to improve or rise by 50-percent, which would shock the hell out of most Germans. Second, most metropolitan areas with built-up tram and localized networks.....need to increase their cost level even more (probably another 50-percent rise).
For me, that one-way ticket in the Wiesbaden-Mainz region which runs 2.70 Euro? It probably ought to be closer to 3.70 Euro. This new 365 Euro a year ticket for kids (for school purposes)? It probably needs to be closer to 500 Euro a year.
So what will happen with the audit report? Nothing. None of the political parties have the guts to do anything over the Bahn, or the 20-billion in debt.
The German Federal Court of Auditors finally published fairly in depth piece and it's pretty critical on the German government.
Their hint is that for 25 years....there's been no real national plan or agenda for the Bahn.
Present debt by the Bahn? Twenty billion Euro.
Adding to the year by year mess....in this 25-year period, there's been barely any real rise in the number of people using it. The freight traffic? That has gone down by almost 20-percent over the same period.
The chief organization in the government holding the 'stick' over the Bahn? The Transportation Ministry. You can go through various coalition governments and find the same tendency.....a lot of talk, but no real path to controlling the debt or improving the mess.
Since 1978 when I first rode the German railway, I've come to three conclusions about the Bahn:
1. Between on-time service and reliability.....there's no network in Europe that matches their level of competence.
2. Cost-wise, it's relatively cheap.
3. In terms of safety, you find their efforts to be something that you can appreciate.
But if you take this debt thing, and the zero-plan situation serious...it leads to two serious issues which people don't want to face. First, tickets probably need to improve or rise by 50-percent, which would shock the hell out of most Germans. Second, most metropolitan areas with built-up tram and localized networks.....need to increase their cost level even more (probably another 50-percent rise).
For me, that one-way ticket in the Wiesbaden-Mainz region which runs 2.70 Euro? It probably ought to be closer to 3.70 Euro. This new 365 Euro a year ticket for kids (for school purposes)? It probably needs to be closer to 500 Euro a year.
So what will happen with the audit report? Nothing. None of the political parties have the guts to do anything over the Bahn, or the 20-billion in debt.
More Hack Stories
From this big hacker story in Germany story, we've come to a new piece of the story today. Focus reports (the news magazine) that the kid (now 20 years old) apparently got peppy on hacking into the national police folks (BKA)....and two years ago, had already hacked into their system.
These were the folks who said a few days ago that they doubted the kid's skills and simply don't believe he was the sole hacker.
What this generally leads onto? Well.....if this kid was that successful, there's not much doubt that the Chinese and Russians were also hacking into the Bundestag or BKA system. All of this speculation will end up leading the Bundestag to some major committee effort to bring confidence to the political parties.
These were the folks who said a few days ago that they doubted the kid's skills and simply don't believe he was the sole hacker.
What this generally leads onto? Well.....if this kid was that successful, there's not much doubt that the Chinese and Russians were also hacking into the Bundestag or BKA system. All of this speculation will end up leading the Bundestag to some major committee effort to bring confidence to the political parties.
TV Series Story
Public TV in Germany has to fill 'air-time', so they go out and create various series which are geared to attract viewers. Some of these are built like a National Geographic series (mostly about nature and animals)....some are about some societal problem (drug abuse, teen pregnancy, alcoholism, poverty), and some just focus on regular people or their jobs/hobbies/passions.
So WDR (a regional public TV network under ARD)....went out over twenty years ago and developed this series called 'Menschen Hautnah', which basically means 'People Up Close'. The series has been on the air for more than 20 years. What the director of the series typically does....is go and assign stories to WDR journalists, and occasionally freelance people.
Do people watch Menschen Hautnah? It's best not to ask that question. Most youth-viewers (Germans under the age of 25 years old) will say they've never watched a single minute of it. I've probably watched two episodes in the past decade.
The show came up in the news today, in an odd way. Someone sat there and viewed a particular episode....then it occurred to them that they'd seen this particular couple featured.....on a prior episode, except they had different names. So they alerted the network, and they investigated. What WDR says now....is that there are three of these episodes made by this one free-lance guy....featuring the same couple, and each apparently true but with differing names involved.
Yes, a true report but three different sets of names.
In some way, it's amusing because you can assume the storyline told of all three episodes....was true. He didn't care if the names were true or fake.....he conveyed the theme to just entertain you.
So WDR (a regional public TV network under ARD)....went out over twenty years ago and developed this series called 'Menschen Hautnah', which basically means 'People Up Close'. The series has been on the air for more than 20 years. What the director of the series typically does....is go and assign stories to WDR journalists, and occasionally freelance people.
Do people watch Menschen Hautnah? It's best not to ask that question. Most youth-viewers (Germans under the age of 25 years old) will say they've never watched a single minute of it. I've probably watched two episodes in the past decade.
The show came up in the news today, in an odd way. Someone sat there and viewed a particular episode....then it occurred to them that they'd seen this particular couple featured.....on a prior episode, except they had different names. So they alerted the network, and they investigated. What WDR says now....is that there are three of these episodes made by this one free-lance guy....featuring the same couple, and each apparently true but with differing names involved.
Yes, a true report but three different sets of names.
In some way, it's amusing because you can assume the storyline told of all three episodes....was true. He didn't care if the names were true or fake.....he conveyed the theme to just entertain you.
Theft Story
One of the odd crime developments over the past thirty years in Germany that I've come to observe....is the escalation on theft of bicycles.
Germans have attached themselves to using bikes and their preference is for bikes that range from a couple of hundred Euro, to five to ten thousand Euro. If you want the battery-powered bicycles, then you are talking about a minimum of thousand Euro.
To safely protect the bikes? Well....folks go to an extreme. Some folks will drag their bike up to their apartment or ensure it's safely in their garage. Even upon arriving at work, they will make an effort to secure the bike in some protected room or shelter. Some railway stations will even rent-out protective cabins to ensure protection of bikes.
Chains to lock the bikes up? It really doesn't matter....virtually all chains can be defeated.
The cops? All you can do upon discovering your bike was stolen....is call the cops and report it. The cops really don't have the manpower to do anything, and there simply isn't a strategy on handling on this type of theft.
So I noticed today a bike recovery story here in the local Wiesbaden news.
This German lady had her bike stolen. It apparently had some unique features. Some days pass, and she's browsing through want-ads on the internet (I assume Ebay or Craig's List). Here's the bike. She contacts the sales person, and arranges for an inspection to purchase. Then she calls the cops and they show up.
Yep, it's the bike. Oddly enough....there's other items there that have been reported stolen. So they conduct an inventory. They bring the individual down to the station and do a full report, and then they issue a summons to report to the court.
All of this effort though.....only comes about because of the determination of the German lady in recovering her own stuff.
Germans have attached themselves to using bikes and their preference is for bikes that range from a couple of hundred Euro, to five to ten thousand Euro. If you want the battery-powered bicycles, then you are talking about a minimum of thousand Euro.
To safely protect the bikes? Well....folks go to an extreme. Some folks will drag their bike up to their apartment or ensure it's safely in their garage. Even upon arriving at work, they will make an effort to secure the bike in some protected room or shelter. Some railway stations will even rent-out protective cabins to ensure protection of bikes.
Chains to lock the bikes up? It really doesn't matter....virtually all chains can be defeated.
The cops? All you can do upon discovering your bike was stolen....is call the cops and report it. The cops really don't have the manpower to do anything, and there simply isn't a strategy on handling on this type of theft.
So I noticed today a bike recovery story here in the local Wiesbaden news.
This German lady had her bike stolen. It apparently had some unique features. Some days pass, and she's browsing through want-ads on the internet (I assume Ebay or Craig's List). Here's the bike. She contacts the sales person, and arranges for an inspection to purchase. Then she calls the cops and they show up.
Yep, it's the bike. Oddly enough....there's other items there that have been reported stolen. So they conduct an inventory. They bring the individual down to the station and do a full report, and then they issue a summons to report to the court.
All of this effort though.....only comes about because of the determination of the German lady in recovering her own stuff.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
A Fake Hacker?
About two weeks ago, I laid out an essay over the 'hack' of the German Bundestag in Berlin. Eventually, with all the evidence gathered....cops were pretty certain about this 20-year old student in the Homberg area (here in Hessen).
The cops got a search warrant....came to the house, and accused the kid of the crime. Political figures and journalists are all hyped up about the episode, and it's consumed a good bit of public TV crime.
So today, we come to this one last piece of the story. The cops, from the moment they detained the 'kid'.....have felt that while he's admitting to things....he just doesn't have the skill required to be a hacker.
HR (our public TV network in Hessen) talked about this today.
So the federal cops (BKA) sat the kid in a room with a computer, and asked him how he did it. Based on this 'test'....the kid failed. The cops simply state that this kid (while admitting he did it)....just isn't capable of doing the work required.
What now?
The cops might go and interview friends and the inner circle of folks that the kid knows. Based on suspicion....they can do charges against the 'kid' but he'll be treated as a juvenile and probably only get a year or two in some detention center.
Is the kid faking them? I might go and suspect that he has no reason to prove his skills. Another friend in the background? Someone could have written a page of instructions and told him how to hack in, and then the kid disposed of the instructions.
I'll just say this....it's a bit amusing to be at this point, and the cops just not believing in the admitted confession.
The cops got a search warrant....came to the house, and accused the kid of the crime. Political figures and journalists are all hyped up about the episode, and it's consumed a good bit of public TV crime.
So today, we come to this one last piece of the story. The cops, from the moment they detained the 'kid'.....have felt that while he's admitting to things....he just doesn't have the skill required to be a hacker.
HR (our public TV network in Hessen) talked about this today.
So the federal cops (BKA) sat the kid in a room with a computer, and asked him how he did it. Based on this 'test'....the kid failed. The cops simply state that this kid (while admitting he did it)....just isn't capable of doing the work required.
What now?
The cops might go and interview friends and the inner circle of folks that the kid knows. Based on suspicion....they can do charges against the 'kid' but he'll be treated as a juvenile and probably only get a year or two in some detention center.
Is the kid faking them? I might go and suspect that he has no reason to prove his skills. Another friend in the background? Someone could have written a page of instructions and told him how to hack in, and then the kid disposed of the instructions.
I'll just say this....it's a bit amusing to be at this point, and the cops just not believing in the admitted confession.
Macron
I sat last night and watched a German news piece on President Macron of France....having a 'huddle-meeting' with 600 French mayors. The aim here, was to show some kind of civil discourse....that he could sit and talk in a public forum with them.
I went back to YouTube this morning and watched the video of this meeting....with the sound turned off.
Macron is having serious trouble in convincing the French public that he can lead them. He wants a national dialog.
At some point, the journalists were even suggesting that he wants the public to identify what tax cuts they want, and then what benefits they want lessened. Basically....he would give them a couple of hundred Euro back in their, but the cut 'something' (maybe education, maybe street renovation....you just don't know what). For a brief moment, he'd probably win this public display. The real losers though? It'd go back to the mayors, and they'd have to sit there with public frustration over cut benefits.
Curious episode, I must admit.
I went back to YouTube this morning and watched the video of this meeting....with the sound turned off.
Macron is having serious trouble in convincing the French public that he can lead them. He wants a national dialog.
At some point, the journalists were even suggesting that he wants the public to identify what tax cuts they want, and then what benefits they want lessened. Basically....he would give them a couple of hundred Euro back in their, but the cut 'something' (maybe education, maybe street renovation....you just don't know what). For a brief moment, he'd probably win this public display. The real losers though? It'd go back to the mayors, and they'd have to sit there with public frustration over cut benefits.
Curious episode, I must admit.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
A Stassi-like Device to Monitor the AfD Party?
So, in simple terms....the coalition (with support from the FDP, Linke Party and Greens) want to implement a Constitutional 'watch' action over the AfD Party and it's members. For about a year, in the Bundestag circle, this chatter has been going on and it's simply just a matter of time when the vote is carried out, and the Stassi-like monitoring will start up. In the last week....it's gone a step or two higher.
An embarrassment? No. Various parties will openly say that 'threats' made in speeches and talk by AfD members....require monitoring by police. Some AfD folks will use the term 'secret' police....just to hint of Stassi (the old East German secret police).
Will this all lead onto a 'victimhood' situation? This is likely the next step as authorization to spy on the AfD starts up. It's comical to suggest they represent a victim situation, but it starts to put the coalition parties (CDU-CSU and SPD), along with the Greens, Linke and FDP.....in a bad light.
If AfD were to ever reach a majority of voters...would they flip the mechanism to then authorize spying on the CDU, SPD and others? Yes, and that's the sad part of this story....retribution is likely to occur, if votes flips.
But here's the amusing thing about the spying business. The AfD folks could start fake rumors of Russian agents being part of the Green Party support mechanism, or the Chinese were lobbying the CSU in Bavaria, and these reports would get dragged out in the monitoring meetings....where the fake rumors might get accidentally released (intentionally) to the public TV news crowd. Yes, suddenly....you'd wake up and have some fake story leading you (the German public) to think that Bulgarian agents were sitting with big names of the Linke Party, or that the Americans were paying off members of the CDU mechanism.
Rumor-wise, the AfD could turn this mess into a much bigger mess.
An embarrassment? No. Various parties will openly say that 'threats' made in speeches and talk by AfD members....require monitoring by police. Some AfD folks will use the term 'secret' police....just to hint of Stassi (the old East German secret police).
Will this all lead onto a 'victimhood' situation? This is likely the next step as authorization to spy on the AfD starts up. It's comical to suggest they represent a victim situation, but it starts to put the coalition parties (CDU-CSU and SPD), along with the Greens, Linke and FDP.....in a bad light.
If AfD were to ever reach a majority of voters...would they flip the mechanism to then authorize spying on the CDU, SPD and others? Yes, and that's the sad part of this story....retribution is likely to occur, if votes flips.
But here's the amusing thing about the spying business. The AfD folks could start fake rumors of Russian agents being part of the Green Party support mechanism, or the Chinese were lobbying the CSU in Bavaria, and these reports would get dragged out in the monitoring meetings....where the fake rumors might get accidentally released (intentionally) to the public TV news crowd. Yes, suddenly....you'd wake up and have some fake story leading you (the German public) to think that Bulgarian agents were sitting with big names of the Linke Party, or that the Americans were paying off members of the CDU mechanism.
Rumor-wise, the AfD could turn this mess into a much bigger mess.
This German-Iranian Spy Business
Just about every single major news network in Germany has a six-line story posted over the past five days over a 'spy' situation in Germany.
The basic facts? The guy in question is 50 years old, and is a German-Afghan. It's not clear if he arrived here in the past five years (during the open-door asylum period) or in the past twenty years. The guy holds two passports.....two citizenships. This has been a German national policy and generally accepted as 'legit'. Most felt that it was a way to help the immigrants stay in touch with their past life and social culture.
So this guy has been a employee of the German Army, as a translator. Remember, the Germans have troops in Afghanistan. In this process of employment, they apparently granted him a security clearance, and he apparently sat in classified presentations and read through classified traffic.
The accusation here (by a federal prosecutor) is that he passed info (not to Afghanistan, as you might suspect), to Iran. The same accusation says that he was key player in the Iranian intelligence system.
The type of info passed? Unknown.
Some suggestions by the news media (Spiegel says this)....is that the info passed on was about the German troop presence in Afghanistan. What he might have known? Troop numbers, deficiencies, politicians coming to visit, etc.
The negativity in this story? Well, it'll center on the dual-citizenship concept and whether it's wise or not. How many dual-citizens work within the German government, or hold security clearances? Unknown. It might be ten, a hundred, or perhaps even a thousand.
If the guy is prosecuted...is it a problem on prison time? Some bureaucrat will have to sit down and assemble a listing of what the guy knows and recommend to the judge when they reach the guilty point....how you hold the guy in confinement, and whether he can be trusted in the prison environment.
A big story? No. This is a page six type story, and you won't hear much about this....other than his court business in four to six months.
The basic facts? The guy in question is 50 years old, and is a German-Afghan. It's not clear if he arrived here in the past five years (during the open-door asylum period) or in the past twenty years. The guy holds two passports.....two citizenships. This has been a German national policy and generally accepted as 'legit'. Most felt that it was a way to help the immigrants stay in touch with their past life and social culture.
So this guy has been a employee of the German Army, as a translator. Remember, the Germans have troops in Afghanistan. In this process of employment, they apparently granted him a security clearance, and he apparently sat in classified presentations and read through classified traffic.
The accusation here (by a federal prosecutor) is that he passed info (not to Afghanistan, as you might suspect), to Iran. The same accusation says that he was key player in the Iranian intelligence system.
The type of info passed? Unknown.
Some suggestions by the news media (Spiegel says this)....is that the info passed on was about the German troop presence in Afghanistan. What he might have known? Troop numbers, deficiencies, politicians coming to visit, etc.
The negativity in this story? Well, it'll center on the dual-citizenship concept and whether it's wise or not. How many dual-citizens work within the German government, or hold security clearances? Unknown. It might be ten, a hundred, or perhaps even a thousand.
If the guy is prosecuted...is it a problem on prison time? Some bureaucrat will have to sit down and assemble a listing of what the guy knows and recommend to the judge when they reach the guilty point....how you hold the guy in confinement, and whether he can be trusted in the prison environment.
A big story? No. This is a page six type story, and you won't hear much about this....other than his court business in four to six months.
Hartz IV Chatter
There is a unique case being put up upon the German Constitutional Court today. The decision upon this case will probably come up within four to six months. ARD (public TV, Channel One) reports the basic story.
So the case revolves around German welfare (Hartz IV) and the rights of the individual. When you go on Hartz IV, you have to routinely report to the local Job-Center, and submit resumes. If any company or business offers you a job....you MUST take the job. If you refuse, the Job-Center has the right to decrease your 424 Euro a month, in an effort to 'persuade' you to take the job. For around the eighteen-odd years of Hartz IV's existence, this persuasion gimmick has been part of the system.
Well.....legal minds have reached a point where they think it's totally wrong that the Job-Center would force you to accept a job, against your wishes. And if that's wrong, then taking any sum from the 424 Euro....is wrong as well.
The court will have three options. First, they can say it's totally legal as things are today, with no changes necessary. Second, they can suggest that pieces of this 'directive' are insufficient and that the Bundestag needs to write the 'directive' in a certain and clear way (perhaps suggesting a limit of 5-percent punishment). Or they could come to the third option....suggest that the whole monthly allotment system and the 'must-work' detail....are screwed up and they need a total revision from the ground up.
When Hartz IV came along, most people dealing with the escalating social program of welfare would suggest that the whole concept was moving beyond the ability of the government. They needed a tool to force people back to work....even if they were doing work that made the individual unhappy. Even if the court suggests that the current program is unfair....the odds are that a new and more innovated program would also be unfair, and likely forcing people to do work that leads to frustrations and negativity.
The curious thing here is that the SPD Party has hyped up that they wanted to revisit the Job-Center program, and Hartz IV in 2019....with a major revision. My guess is that the court will open this door and give the SPD a chance to deliver their idea of a revision.
So the case revolves around German welfare (Hartz IV) and the rights of the individual. When you go on Hartz IV, you have to routinely report to the local Job-Center, and submit resumes. If any company or business offers you a job....you MUST take the job. If you refuse, the Job-Center has the right to decrease your 424 Euro a month, in an effort to 'persuade' you to take the job. For around the eighteen-odd years of Hartz IV's existence, this persuasion gimmick has been part of the system.
Well.....legal minds have reached a point where they think it's totally wrong that the Job-Center would force you to accept a job, against your wishes. And if that's wrong, then taking any sum from the 424 Euro....is wrong as well.
The court will have three options. First, they can say it's totally legal as things are today, with no changes necessary. Second, they can suggest that pieces of this 'directive' are insufficient and that the Bundestag needs to write the 'directive' in a certain and clear way (perhaps suggesting a limit of 5-percent punishment). Or they could come to the third option....suggest that the whole monthly allotment system and the 'must-work' detail....are screwed up and they need a total revision from the ground up.
When Hartz IV came along, most people dealing with the escalating social program of welfare would suggest that the whole concept was moving beyond the ability of the government. They needed a tool to force people back to work....even if they were doing work that made the individual unhappy. Even if the court suggests that the current program is unfair....the odds are that a new and more innovated program would also be unfair, and likely forcing people to do work that leads to frustrations and negativity.
The curious thing here is that the SPD Party has hyped up that they wanted to revisit the Job-Center program, and Hartz IV in 2019....with a major revision. My guess is that the court will open this door and give the SPD a chance to deliver their idea of a revision.
Monday, January 14, 2019
Explaining Knife Attack
This is one of those assault/knife attack stories that you occasionally come across in Germany. I'll reference this to BR24 (public network).
What the cops say is that in Bad Kreuznach (a sizeable town in the Pfalz, about 30 minutes driving SW of Mainz).....a Polish gal who was pregnant had shown up at a local hospital. She apparently has an Afghan boyfriend. There is some conflict in this relationship, with no description by anyone over 'what'. The woman ends up being stabbed by the boyfriend, while in the hospital (Friday of last week) and the child is lost because of the stabbing.
The attack? It took place in the hospital room. The second patient in the room got security help called.
Curiously, the Afghan guy's application for asylum....hadn't reached a completion stage yet.
Charges? Well....attempted murder, dangerous bodily harm, and consummate abortion. Just on the bodily harm charge, you could go up to a max of five years in prison, under German rules. I don't see this guy getting less than ten years in prison, if convicted.
Motive? Cops have yet to find anything. Whether the two were still friendly, or if the relationship had dissolved? Unknown.
One of the characteristics of these type attacks is that you end up with a thoughtless crime committed with rage, and one has to go back to question the maturity level of these young men (it's generally always men, and under the age of thirty for the most part) who commit these type of crimes. German society has wanted to believe in similar maturity levels, and the evidence has gone the opposite direction.
What the cops say is that in Bad Kreuznach (a sizeable town in the Pfalz, about 30 minutes driving SW of Mainz).....a Polish gal who was pregnant had shown up at a local hospital. She apparently has an Afghan boyfriend. There is some conflict in this relationship, with no description by anyone over 'what'. The woman ends up being stabbed by the boyfriend, while in the hospital (Friday of last week) and the child is lost because of the stabbing.
The attack? It took place in the hospital room. The second patient in the room got security help called.
Curiously, the Afghan guy's application for asylum....hadn't reached a completion stage yet.
Charges? Well....attempted murder, dangerous bodily harm, and consummate abortion. Just on the bodily harm charge, you could go up to a max of five years in prison, under German rules. I don't see this guy getting less than ten years in prison, if convicted.
Motive? Cops have yet to find anything. Whether the two were still friendly, or if the relationship had dissolved? Unknown.
One of the characteristics of these type attacks is that you end up with a thoughtless crime committed with rage, and one has to go back to question the maturity level of these young men (it's generally always men, and under the age of thirty for the most part) who commit these type of crimes. German society has wanted to believe in similar maturity levels, and the evidence has gone the opposite direction.
Explaining Dexit
Dexit is kinda like BREXIT (the UK to leave the EU), but in this case....it's the suggestion that Germany would leave the EU. Most Germans (probably 90-percent or more) would laugh.
Over the weekend, there was a AfD Party meeting, and the Dexit idea came up. The AfD folks have a list of things they want the the EU to resolve or repair. They put a strong suggestion on the table that they think the EU could fix these things, but if in five years....no attempt has been made, then the AfD Party believes an exit is then required.
Getting back to the Deutsche Mark? Well, that's on the list as well. If you remember the original intent of the AfD Party.....they wanted the Euro dumped and the Mark brought back.
The odds that the EU will repair itself? There's an election coming up in May of this year, and there is some belief that various right-wing parties will come to find representation in the EU. No one is suggesting a majority, or even a one-third balance....but they will exist. It's for a five-year period.
Part of the frustration over the EU in the past decade is the fact that they'd suddenly come out and note they were voting on something, and the news media had no idea this legislation existed. If the news media knew of the legislation.....they quietly kept it underwraps. People woke up to read that the EU voted on this idea, which people felt was stupid, but it was too late to undo the perception.
The added problem is that the EU did bring about a massive amount of positive changes that were demanded back in the 1970s, and resolved various problems. So there is some tendency among people to voice support on keeping the EU as a functional state. Dexit, I think....will simply be openly discussed but not go anywhere.
Over the weekend, there was a AfD Party meeting, and the Dexit idea came up. The AfD folks have a list of things they want the the EU to resolve or repair. They put a strong suggestion on the table that they think the EU could fix these things, but if in five years....no attempt has been made, then the AfD Party believes an exit is then required.
Getting back to the Deutsche Mark? Well, that's on the list as well. If you remember the original intent of the AfD Party.....they wanted the Euro dumped and the Mark brought back.
The odds that the EU will repair itself? There's an election coming up in May of this year, and there is some belief that various right-wing parties will come to find representation in the EU. No one is suggesting a majority, or even a one-third balance....but they will exist. It's for a five-year period.
Part of the frustration over the EU in the past decade is the fact that they'd suddenly come out and note they were voting on something, and the news media had no idea this legislation existed. If the news media knew of the legislation.....they quietly kept it underwraps. People woke up to read that the EU voted on this idea, which people felt was stupid, but it was too late to undo the perception.
The added problem is that the EU did bring about a massive amount of positive changes that were demanded back in the 1970s, and resolved various problems. So there is some tendency among people to voice support on keeping the EU as a functional state. Dexit, I think....will simply be openly discussed but not go anywhere.
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Political Chatter
Since 2013, the topic most in conflict by all political parties in public forums is immigration, migration, and asylum. Most Germans (working-class type) will say that public forums were hyped to promote immigration and asylum between 2013 and late-2015. After the New Year's Eve business in Koln on 31 December 2015....things went into a different direction.
For the CDU party, it's been a difficult path because Chancellor Merkel has been strongly attached to the idea of pro-asylum and pro-immigration. It's been their primary theme for five-plus years now.
So I noticed via ARD's (public TV, Channel One) coverage this morning....the new party chief of the CDU (AKK, Kramp-Karrenbauer)....has decided to open the party discussion on the topic.
The quote here by AKK: "We will look at the whole issue of immigration from the protection of the external border to the asylum procedures to the point of view of integration."
Are CDU members shocked? No. My interpretation is that they are a bit relieved that it has finally come up to be openly discussed. Why AKK has taken this move? About a month ago, they wrapped up the leadership of the party business, and AKK won out over Merz. Some CDU and journalists thought that Merz would go away. Well....he didn't. Merz intends to be some dynamic to drag the party along to dump some Merkel-policies. He's hinted in a strong way that the whole immigration design has been wrong. It's possible that the Chancellorship candidate for 2021 might be Merz, unless AKK can prove herself. So this immigration talk is part of the effort to ensure Merz doesn't get ahead.
What might come out of the CDU talk? I would suggest three things:
1. They might agree on some need for a constitutional change, to reword the paragraph about the right to asylum. Don't worry....they just want to suggest this....the SPD and opposition parties won't dare agee to it.
2. They might agree to some prison-like environment for all migrants who commit crimes and need to be deported. Don't worry about this idea....the SPD and opposition parties won't dare agree to it.
3. They might agree to a strong division of the wording for asylum-due-to-war, and economic-job-seekers. Oddly enough, most of that philosophy has already been adapted....even agreed upon by the SPD and opposition parties.
So this is fake 'corrective-path'? Yes, in simple terms. To make people think they are resolving the problems, when they can't. AKK needs to block Merz from getting more public attention....even if it means pretending to be the 'undoer' of Chancellor Merkel's policies.
For the CDU party, it's been a difficult path because Chancellor Merkel has been strongly attached to the idea of pro-asylum and pro-immigration. It's been their primary theme for five-plus years now.
So I noticed via ARD's (public TV, Channel One) coverage this morning....the new party chief of the CDU (AKK, Kramp-Karrenbauer)....has decided to open the party discussion on the topic.
The quote here by AKK: "We will look at the whole issue of immigration from the protection of the external border to the asylum procedures to the point of view of integration."
Are CDU members shocked? No. My interpretation is that they are a bit relieved that it has finally come up to be openly discussed. Why AKK has taken this move? About a month ago, they wrapped up the leadership of the party business, and AKK won out over Merz. Some CDU and journalists thought that Merz would go away. Well....he didn't. Merz intends to be some dynamic to drag the party along to dump some Merkel-policies. He's hinted in a strong way that the whole immigration design has been wrong. It's possible that the Chancellorship candidate for 2021 might be Merz, unless AKK can prove herself. So this immigration talk is part of the effort to ensure Merz doesn't get ahead.
What might come out of the CDU talk? I would suggest three things:
1. They might agree on some need for a constitutional change, to reword the paragraph about the right to asylum. Don't worry....they just want to suggest this....the SPD and opposition parties won't dare agee to it.
2. They might agree to some prison-like environment for all migrants who commit crimes and need to be deported. Don't worry about this idea....the SPD and opposition parties won't dare agree to it.
3. They might agree to a strong division of the wording for asylum-due-to-war, and economic-job-seekers. Oddly enough, most of that philosophy has already been adapted....even agreed upon by the SPD and opposition parties.
So this is fake 'corrective-path'? Yes, in simple terms. To make people think they are resolving the problems, when they can't. AKK needs to block Merz from getting more public attention....even if it means pretending to be the 'undoer' of Chancellor Merkel's policies.
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