BREXIT, the Germans, the EU, and the 40-odd Billion Euro

If no BREXIT deal is completed?  A year ago, folks would have said that just won't happen.  Today, I suspect a majority of Brit are entertaining this idea.  In the middle of the present deal on the table.....there is a 'quitting' fee of 40 billion Euro that the UK would pay the EU.  If the deal doesn't happen....there is no 40 billion. 

Here's the amusing thing....that 40 billion is kinda important for Germany and the EU.

The budget process for the EU is an inept machine.....most everyone will admit it and offer excuses.  Once they set a budget up and running....it's not a one-year deal.  It's a multi-year situation.  So if the UK leaves the EU....because the Brits were pumping in a fair amount of money.....which a third of the contribution never came back to the EU, the UK contribution is important for the running of the EU mechanism and for the lesser country projects.

So when the deadline comes, and there's no BREXIT deal....what happens to the missing money to cover EU costs? 

Well....the richer nations (like Germany) will have to cough-up the money.  So you can imagine Chancellor Merkel sitting there in late summer and admitting to folks that the German government has to find at least ten billion (maybe even fifteen billion) extra Euro laying around....to hand over to the EU....of which they will hand sixty to seventy percent of the money back....and consume the rest.

Here's the more amusing part of this deal.....in 2020, Chancellor Merkel would have to come back and find another way to 10-to-15 billion Euro. 

Why can't the EU just downsize it's cost and trim expenditures?  Yes, that would be a curious thing to ask, but it doesn't seem to be something they are capable of performing.  Naturally, this goes back to the argument that numerous Brits had in their anti-EU discussions....that the EU isn't competent for the work required. 

At this point, a lot of bureaucrats (both in the EU and in the German government) would like to get this deal business over and prepare to receive the 40 billion Euro.  As each day passes, it appears more and more likely that the 40 billion won't  ever arrive. 

So when you see the EU or German politician all hyped up over BREXIT.....there's a special reason for their anxiety.