Once the dust had settled on this guy pushing the German kid and his mom into the path of the arriving train in Frankfurt (with the mom crawling out but the kid failing to get out, and dying there)....folks have come around to ask how they can resolve this 'crisis'.
Some are trying to suggest what the Japanese have done.....having doorways installed with a fencing system....to prevent you access to the incoming train until it's stopped, and then a wall 'doorway' would open and allow you access to the train.
Well....it's an odd thing about the German rail network, and why this simple Japanese solution can't be used.
You see....there are probably over twenty different type trains and cars used on the entire German Bahn network, with heights and doorway patterns in various ways.
Back in the 1990s, you could this multitude of differing cars and trains becoming more and more common. Add in the Austrian, Swiss, Dutch, Polish and French trains which arrive as well.
I agree...back in the 1980s....some idiot with the Bahn system should have mandated a standard, but no one wanted to stand up and make that kind of decision.
Adding more security? Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd have to hire up another 150 guys to roam the station on a standard shift. Who would pay for this extra security? It's doubtful that even having more security would have mattered with this Monday episode.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Next Part of the ASAP Rocky Episode in Sweden
President Trump played out the next card in this game....sending an envoy to Sweden to monitor the court case and feed information back.
The envoy's normal job for the President? Well, that's a curious thing....he's a hostage negotiator expert.
Sending a message? Well, you can imagine this guy showing up in your country, and asking questions, and he's got this frame of mind that someone is holding ASAP hostage. The Swedish intellectual prosecutor is sitting there, and in a state of disbelief that someone would suggest that ASAP is a hostage. Yet the longer, this mess continues on, and the envoy of Trump's is there in Sweden....this will appear in public media as a hostage crisis, and not a legal matter.
ASAP might even reach the point of acting like a hostage, just to embarrass the prosecutor even more.
The envoy's normal job for the President? Well, that's a curious thing....he's a hostage negotiator expert.
Sending a message? Well, you can imagine this guy showing up in your country, and asking questions, and he's got this frame of mind that someone is holding ASAP hostage. The Swedish intellectual prosecutor is sitting there, and in a state of disbelief that someone would suggest that ASAP is a hostage. Yet the longer, this mess continues on, and the envoy of Trump's is there in Sweden....this will appear in public media as a hostage crisis, and not a legal matter.
ASAP might even reach the point of acting like a hostage, just to embarrass the prosecutor even more.
Five Odd Things About This Frankfurt Murder
I've essayed several pieces to this Monday morning 'push' of a mother and son onto the tracks of a arriving train, with the son being killed. The culprit is a immigrant guy from Eritrea who had settled in Switzerland around 13 years ago. Cops have him and will be charging him with murder, and two counts of attempted murder. So, there are five odd things on this story that I've come to notice:
1. Somewhere in the past two years in the Zurich area of Switzerland, this Eritrean guy had a emotional breakdown of some type, and had a period of time in a facility. No one says what the issue concerned, and you get the impression that he was only released because the doctor felt medication would take care of the problem. So, what was the medication? Maybe it's just me, but based on his actions....I'm guessing he's got some kind of paranoid schizophrenic situation.
2. The Swiss pro-asylum crowd were so happy over this guy's progress since 2006, and his enthusiasm to assimilate.....that they used his picture and his story in at least one national story. In simple terms, he was their 'poster-boy'.
3. Neighbors and associates of this guy....generally all say that in the summer of 2018....his whole perception of things changed. No explanation given over what they saw....but the words used makes one think that he was having a breakdown.
4 While this guy didn't use a knife in the Frankfurt 'push'.....if you go back around three days prior to Zurich (his home-town)....he got into an argument with some neighbor and suddenly had a knife (at least what the neighbor reported). If you go around most Germans or Swiss.....the vast majority never carry a knife on their person. Immigrants? It's this odd thing that I've come to notice in Germany that a lot of the migrant male 16 to 25 age group....carry knives.
5. Finally, it is rather odd that the ARD and ZDF public TV news teams spent a fair amount of time on the story on both Monday and Tuesday evenings. They've had to admit he was a migrant....long-settled into Switzerland, and it's the type of story that in 2014 and 2015....they would have avoided as much as possible.
1. Somewhere in the past two years in the Zurich area of Switzerland, this Eritrean guy had a emotional breakdown of some type, and had a period of time in a facility. No one says what the issue concerned, and you get the impression that he was only released because the doctor felt medication would take care of the problem. So, what was the medication? Maybe it's just me, but based on his actions....I'm guessing he's got some kind of paranoid schizophrenic situation.
2. The Swiss pro-asylum crowd were so happy over this guy's progress since 2006, and his enthusiasm to assimilate.....that they used his picture and his story in at least one national story. In simple terms, he was their 'poster-boy'.
3. Neighbors and associates of this guy....generally all say that in the summer of 2018....his whole perception of things changed. No explanation given over what they saw....but the words used makes one think that he was having a breakdown.
4 While this guy didn't use a knife in the Frankfurt 'push'.....if you go back around three days prior to Zurich (his home-town)....he got into an argument with some neighbor and suddenly had a knife (at least what the neighbor reported). If you go around most Germans or Swiss.....the vast majority never carry a knife on their person. Immigrants? It's this odd thing that I've come to notice in Germany that a lot of the migrant male 16 to 25 age group....carry knives.
5. Finally, it is rather odd that the ARD and ZDF public TV news teams spent a fair amount of time on the story on both Monday and Tuesday evenings. They've had to admit he was a migrant....long-settled into Switzerland, and it's the type of story that in 2014 and 2015....they would have avoided as much as possible.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Frankfurt Update
I essayed a piece yesterday over this murder at the Frankfurt railway station....with the African guy from Switzerland who'd pushed three into the line of an oncoming train.....one getting out of the way, and the mother crawling out of the line....with the train only killing the lady's son.
Well....cops have said a bit more.
This guy, from Eritrea, had been living for 13 years in Switzerland....was married and had a couple of kids. Up until January, he'd always been employed....but for some reason....was let go early in the year. No reason given.
Strangely enough, Swiss cops have looking for the guy since the 25th. What they say is that he got into a disturbance with a neighbor in the building and threatened them with a knife. When the cops arrived....this guy had fled.
Adding more to the story.....this guy had been a model of integration, and used for positive articles around Switzerland for the past decade.
At some point last year, he had some kind of stress or anxiety problem. The hint is that he spent some time in a treatment center. No one says the problem, but it would suggest that he was probably on some type of medication effort.
If you read through all the material....no one in Switzerland ever considered the guy a threat up until last week with the confrontation with the neighbor.
Well....cops have said a bit more.
This guy, from Eritrea, had been living for 13 years in Switzerland....was married and had a couple of kids. Up until January, he'd always been employed....but for some reason....was let go early in the year. No reason given.
Strangely enough, Swiss cops have looking for the guy since the 25th. What they say is that he got into a disturbance with a neighbor in the building and threatened them with a knife. When the cops arrived....this guy had fled.
Adding more to the story.....this guy had been a model of integration, and used for positive articles around Switzerland for the past decade.
At some point last year, he had some kind of stress or anxiety problem. The hint is that he spent some time in a treatment center. No one says the problem, but it would suggest that he was probably on some type of medication effort.
If you read through all the material....no one in Switzerland ever considered the guy a threat up until last week with the confrontation with the neighbor.
Fireworks Story
It came up this morning in German national news....a short piece....which details an effort to ban private New Year's Eve fireworks in 31 German cities.
Reason? Pollutants in the air after each New Year's episode. This is being pushed by German Environmental Aid (DUH).
For most who've never been in Germany.....the 31st of December is a big deal, and fireworks are sold for the three to five days prior to this. This is the only time of the year that it's allowed to buy and use fireworks. At midnight, Germans fire off tons of rockets and firecrackers.
Potential for the ban to occur? Unknown, and the journalists aren't listing the 31 cities.
My guess is that it might be successful in a couple of cities.....with the vast amount of the public simply disobeying the ban. Cops? They got better things to do than run around and try to get evidence to build a case against some guy who fired off a couple of sky-rockets.
Reason? Pollutants in the air after each New Year's episode. This is being pushed by German Environmental Aid (DUH).
For most who've never been in Germany.....the 31st of December is a big deal, and fireworks are sold for the three to five days prior to this. This is the only time of the year that it's allowed to buy and use fireworks. At midnight, Germans fire off tons of rockets and firecrackers.
Potential for the ban to occur? Unknown, and the journalists aren't listing the 31 cities.
My guess is that it might be successful in a couple of cities.....with the vast amount of the public simply disobeying the ban. Cops? They got better things to do than run around and try to get evidence to build a case against some guy who fired off a couple of sky-rockets.
Wind Power and Germany
There's a great piece over at Watts Up With That today.....that discusses Germany and wind power. All in English and worth a 10-minute read.
Statistics have come in over the first half of the 2019 year of wind power construction, and it's likely to worry a number of people. It's a massive downturn on wind power construction.
Chief reasons laid out? It comes down to two reasons. First, the wind power subsidy deal has a 20-year limit and it's approaching the end. Second, there are more and more communities which are standing up and fighting the construction of the wind power generators.
A big deal? If this trend were to continue over the next five to ten years.....there's zero chance that Germany would be able to generate all the power required, since they intend to shut down the nuke-power stations and a significant number of the coal-power stations.
What may come out of this? Germans end up buying power from neighbors.....at hefty prices. Who to blame? That would be a curious question to ask.
Statistics have come in over the first half of the 2019 year of wind power construction, and it's likely to worry a number of people. It's a massive downturn on wind power construction.
Chief reasons laid out? It comes down to two reasons. First, the wind power subsidy deal has a 20-year limit and it's approaching the end. Second, there are more and more communities which are standing up and fighting the construction of the wind power generators.
A big deal? If this trend were to continue over the next five to ten years.....there's zero chance that Germany would be able to generate all the power required, since they intend to shut down the nuke-power stations and a significant number of the coal-power stations.
What may come out of this? Germans end up buying power from neighbors.....at hefty prices. Who to blame? That would be a curious question to ask.
Monday, July 29, 2019
Murder Episode This Morning in the Frankfurt Railway Station
It's still a developing story in the local region, but what the cops are saying....on one of the platforms and while waiting for a long-distance ICE train to arrive.....some Eritrean guy (around age 40) apparently pushed a mother and her child....along with a 3rd person....into the path of the train. The third person somehow avoided the push, with the mother able to regain herself and climb out. The kid failed to do so, and died as the train hit him.
At this point, the Eritrean guy took off running down the platform, and some folks took off after him.....catching him and holding him down until the cops got there.
It triggered a major chaos at the station, where several of the tracks were shut down, and various trains either cancelled or delayed.
Cause of this? Cops have no idea. The station, based on my visits there in the past couple of years, has become a drug-sales zone, with cops making a massive effort to keep it 'clear'. The potential that the guy is just a nut-case? Well, that's a possibility as well. The station is a magnet for the homeless crowd.
Added comment: Duisburg cops have said that an event from 20 July.....where a woman was pushed off in front of a train there....was triggered by a young guy (around age 28), who blood tests confirm cocaine in his system. It was a similar type event. The dead woman had no connection to the guy involved.....with this accused guy a German-Serb (born in Germany apparently).
Update: Tuesday morning. Cops now say that the 40-year old Eritrean guy....has lived in Switzerland since 2006. Background and reason to be in Frankfurt? Unknown. Episode has triggered significant chatter among Germans on what they can do to protect people at stations, but just adding a couple more cops to patrol.....will do absolutely nothing.
At this point, the Eritrean guy took off running down the platform, and some folks took off after him.....catching him and holding him down until the cops got there.
It triggered a major chaos at the station, where several of the tracks were shut down, and various trains either cancelled or delayed.
Cause of this? Cops have no idea. The station, based on my visits there in the past couple of years, has become a drug-sales zone, with cops making a massive effort to keep it 'clear'. The potential that the guy is just a nut-case? Well, that's a possibility as well. The station is a magnet for the homeless crowd.
Added comment: Duisburg cops have said that an event from 20 July.....where a woman was pushed off in front of a train there....was triggered by a young guy (around age 28), who blood tests confirm cocaine in his system. It was a similar type event. The dead woman had no connection to the guy involved.....with this accused guy a German-Serb (born in Germany apparently).
Update: Tuesday morning. Cops now say that the 40-year old Eritrean guy....has lived in Switzerland since 2006. Background and reason to be in Frankfurt? Unknown. Episode has triggered significant chatter among Germans on what they can do to protect people at stations, but just adding a couple more cops to patrol.....will do absolutely nothing.
More Pool Aftermath
From Saturday, I essayed a piece on the Dusseldorf Rheinbad pool-complex where the managers of the public pool had to call the cops that day on two occasions because of a 'riot' situation existing.
Sunday, the pool management announced the newest rule added to maintain peace....you have to show your ID to enter, and there's some suggestion that a bad-boy list will be generated, and you will be banned from entering the pool if you disrupt operations.
Well, this morning, the CDU guy who is the state Interior Minister (Gunter Krings) has said it's time to reflect upon bad behavior and the right of residence permits, if you get into a riot situation. He's basically suggesting that rules could be created (not existing today), that if you were deemed part of some riot, it'd be enough to send you into the 'rejected' asylum seeker group.
The odds of this passing either at the state or federal level? Right now.....zero. The SPD Party would likely not go along with the ease of moving you from the accepted-list to the rejected-list.
The central problem, which I've often discussed....is that you have so many young men (ages 15 to 25) who were part of the asylum requesting group.....without families or father-figures in their lives. So they get into partying and bad behavior.....accepting immature situations as a 'norm', and you end up with cops involved to get your attention.
UPDATE: Added security via cameras? Well, the pool staff also announced a camera system is being added to record all behavior and actions.
Sunday, the pool management announced the newest rule added to maintain peace....you have to show your ID to enter, and there's some suggestion that a bad-boy list will be generated, and you will be banned from entering the pool if you disrupt operations.
Well, this morning, the CDU guy who is the state Interior Minister (Gunter Krings) has said it's time to reflect upon bad behavior and the right of residence permits, if you get into a riot situation. He's basically suggesting that rules could be created (not existing today), that if you were deemed part of some riot, it'd be enough to send you into the 'rejected' asylum seeker group.
The odds of this passing either at the state or federal level? Right now.....zero. The SPD Party would likely not go along with the ease of moving you from the accepted-list to the rejected-list.
The central problem, which I've often discussed....is that you have so many young men (ages 15 to 25) who were part of the asylum requesting group.....without families or father-figures in their lives. So they get into partying and bad behavior.....accepting immature situations as a 'norm', and you end up with cops involved to get your attention.
UPDATE: Added security via cameras? Well, the pool staff also announced a camera system is being added to record all behavior and actions.
'Drag-Race' Story
I live about two miles from the Autobahn, and yesterday....we had this unique event to occur.
The A3 Autobahn around Frankfurt is one of the congested and most traveled Autobahns in Germany. Even on Sundays.....there's a fair amount of traffic as Germans are returning from their vacations and trips.
Well....around between three and four in the afternoon....four individuals in four cars....decided to have a 'drag-race' shortly after the Niedernhausen exit. In blunt language, 'drag-races' on the Autobahn are illegal, and there's severe fines with points involved. You will end up in front of a judge, and it's likely you will lose your license for at least six to twelve months.
About a mile or two in this 'race', a Syrian guy in a Mercedes CL350 (one of their bigger sports cars), knocked a non-participant car off the road, and triggered a major accident to occur. Six cars are heavily damaged. Three folks were injured enough to require ambulance services.
The bigger problem? This part of the Autobahn was shut off for three hours while they cleared the debris and cars from the mess. This triggered a line of cars stretching back almost 20 kilometers to be backed-up. In some cases, it added another hour or two onto the travel time of people, and triggered extra stress.
The other three drag-racers? They took off. There's a description of the vehicles, and some partial plate numbers.
Cost of the accident? The cops are still adding up the numbers....it's not just the cars and injuries but the man-hours for the fire-department and the Autobahn crew to clear the road. One of the vehicles damaged is a old collector's car. So I'm guessing the total for damages (cars and the services) to be up around 250,000 Euro minimum.
Odds of the cops catching the other three cars and drivers? They will spend some time on this but if no one can cite a tag number.....then catching them won't occur. This Syrian guy? I'm guessing that they tested his blood and will check on drug or alcohol usage as a possibility. Getting the license lost for a year is just the first problem. His insurance probably is just the normal type and won't go beyond 100,000 Euro in cost. Jail-time? Well, for drag-racing....there's some new laws in effect if bodily harm is caused, and he might be looking at a year or two in prison for that act.
The thing that gets me....if you follow the German news, there's a drag-race event where accidents occur almost weekly now in Germany, with people injured or killed. I don't remember this type of behavior being exhibited back in the 1980s.....you just didn't have drag-racing on public roads or streets. The change? I think video-games triggered part of this.....but simply immature behavior by young men has increased in a dramatic way.
The A3 Autobahn around Frankfurt is one of the congested and most traveled Autobahns in Germany. Even on Sundays.....there's a fair amount of traffic as Germans are returning from their vacations and trips.
Well....around between three and four in the afternoon....four individuals in four cars....decided to have a 'drag-race' shortly after the Niedernhausen exit. In blunt language, 'drag-races' on the Autobahn are illegal, and there's severe fines with points involved. You will end up in front of a judge, and it's likely you will lose your license for at least six to twelve months.
About a mile or two in this 'race', a Syrian guy in a Mercedes CL350 (one of their bigger sports cars), knocked a non-participant car off the road, and triggered a major accident to occur. Six cars are heavily damaged. Three folks were injured enough to require ambulance services.
The bigger problem? This part of the Autobahn was shut off for three hours while they cleared the debris and cars from the mess. This triggered a line of cars stretching back almost 20 kilometers to be backed-up. In some cases, it added another hour or two onto the travel time of people, and triggered extra stress.
The other three drag-racers? They took off. There's a description of the vehicles, and some partial plate numbers.
Cost of the accident? The cops are still adding up the numbers....it's not just the cars and injuries but the man-hours for the fire-department and the Autobahn crew to clear the road. One of the vehicles damaged is a old collector's car. So I'm guessing the total for damages (cars and the services) to be up around 250,000 Euro minimum.
Odds of the cops catching the other three cars and drivers? They will spend some time on this but if no one can cite a tag number.....then catching them won't occur. This Syrian guy? I'm guessing that they tested his blood and will check on drug or alcohol usage as a possibility. Getting the license lost for a year is just the first problem. His insurance probably is just the normal type and won't go beyond 100,000 Euro in cost. Jail-time? Well, for drag-racing....there's some new laws in effect if bodily harm is caused, and he might be looking at a year or two in prison for that act.
The thing that gets me....if you follow the German news, there's a drag-race event where accidents occur almost weekly now in Germany, with people injured or killed. I don't remember this type of behavior being exhibited back in the 1980s.....you just didn't have drag-racing on public roads or streets. The change? I think video-games triggered part of this.....but simply immature behavior by young men has increased in a dramatic way.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
'Gift' Story
This morning, I opened up the German Sunday news, and there's this three-line story there....over the Linke-Party chief...Bernd Riexinger.
Riexinger is proposing this 'gift-program'....to reward any German city or town with a financial grant of some type....if they just go and accept refugees.
Amount? That was left out of the story.
The general belief (at least with Riexinger)....if there was money involved, a whole bunch of cities and towns would jump up and accept a significant number of immigrants.
Odds of this passing? With the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Merkel? Zero percent chance. To be honest, you'd have to go and talk about 10,000 Euro per person (in my humble opinion) before most communities would go and opt for this kind of deal. Course, this is probably a one-time only 'gift' if it did come to exist.
Riexinger is proposing this 'gift-program'....to reward any German city or town with a financial grant of some type....if they just go and accept refugees.
Amount? That was left out of the story.
The general belief (at least with Riexinger)....if there was money involved, a whole bunch of cities and towns would jump up and accept a significant number of immigrants.
Odds of this passing? With the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Merkel? Zero percent chance. To be honest, you'd have to go and talk about 10,000 Euro per person (in my humble opinion) before most communities would go and opt for this kind of deal. Course, this is probably a one-time only 'gift' if it did come to exist.
Pool Story Updated
A day ago, I noted this chaos story at the Dusseldorfer Rheinbad....a pool complex....where the cops were called and a group of fifty-to-sixty young men of a migration sort weren't complying with the pool management.
Well....things were updated today. New rule: you can't enter the pool complex without showing an ID.
In the background, an investigation has started up....there's a charge against at least one person for insulting a police officer, which gets you potential jail-time if convicted.
In general, there's a fair amount of money in German communities which is pushed into the public pool business, and it's probably one of the more positive ways that that state money is invested, with public support behind pools. You can find numerous pools which attract hundreds to several thousand....operating around the country.
If you look at operations, most of their problems revolved around profitability and pool safety. So having some 'punks' walk into the middle of an operation, and require police to bring 'peace'....is a bit unusual.
Well....things were updated today. New rule: you can't enter the pool complex without showing an ID.
In the background, an investigation has started up....there's a charge against at least one person for insulting a police officer, which gets you potential jail-time if convicted.
In general, there's a fair amount of money in German communities which is pushed into the public pool business, and it's probably one of the more positive ways that that state money is invested, with public support behind pools. You can find numerous pools which attract hundreds to several thousand....operating around the country.
If you look at operations, most of their problems revolved around profitability and pool safety. So having some 'punks' walk into the middle of an operation, and require police to bring 'peace'....is a bit unusual.
Saturday, July 27, 2019
Pool Story
This is a story that is being told by several NW German news sites this morning, and there's a good basic story outline over at Focus, which describes this in detail.
So the basic story: there's a pool in Dusseldorf (the Dusseldorfer Rheinbad) which had to call for the cops yesterday....twice.
What's generally said is that a fair number of young men (identified as North African gentlemen), created a heated atmosphere, and disobeyed the pool 'chief' on numerous occasions. The
chief had enough at some point, and called the cops. The cops arrived and cleared the whole area.
At some point, the pool chief was threatened by the crowd, and that invoked the second visit by the cops to remove people.
Locals say that the facility had around 1,500 folks at the peak.
Folks arrested for criminal behavior and charged for insults and threats? Yes. These guys may not realize it, but in Germany....if you have someone in charge of something (an authority figure), and you insult them....that's an offense to land you in a court and requires legal help to avoid a fine. By the threat business? That's a serious charge and could land you in jail.
First time event? No. They've had a couple of experiences like this and it's gradually building up.
The chief problem is that you have an awful lot of young males who entered Germany and were basically given a 'pass-card' on mature behavior. If you lacked it....no problem. So here's this atmosphere existing where you can do some stupid things....act like 12-year-old kids, and pretend that no adult authority exists. Locals look at this, and eventually get the idea that the public pool is a 'no-go' area (as silly as it sounds to suggest a pool could be this way), and they stop using it.
Eventually, enough complaints and whining will occur....that the city council or the state government there.....have to react, and make some really stringent rules or invoke some kind of 'pool-jail' situation. I could easily see some list created by the summer of 2020, where you've done stupid behavior and gotten yourself barred from all public pools for an entire season....with people having to flash their ID and be name-checked before entry.
I know.....it sounds silly but that's about the only way to impress upon people some logical behavior.
So the basic story: there's a pool in Dusseldorf (the Dusseldorfer Rheinbad) which had to call for the cops yesterday....twice.
What's generally said is that a fair number of young men (identified as North African gentlemen), created a heated atmosphere, and disobeyed the pool 'chief' on numerous occasions. The
chief had enough at some point, and called the cops. The cops arrived and cleared the whole area.
At some point, the pool chief was threatened by the crowd, and that invoked the second visit by the cops to remove people.
Locals say that the facility had around 1,500 folks at the peak.
Folks arrested for criminal behavior and charged for insults and threats? Yes. These guys may not realize it, but in Germany....if you have someone in charge of something (an authority figure), and you insult them....that's an offense to land you in a court and requires legal help to avoid a fine. By the threat business? That's a serious charge and could land you in jail.
First time event? No. They've had a couple of experiences like this and it's gradually building up.
The chief problem is that you have an awful lot of young males who entered Germany and were basically given a 'pass-card' on mature behavior. If you lacked it....no problem. So here's this atmosphere existing where you can do some stupid things....act like 12-year-old kids, and pretend that no adult authority exists. Locals look at this, and eventually get the idea that the public pool is a 'no-go' area (as silly as it sounds to suggest a pool could be this way), and they stop using it.
Eventually, enough complaints and whining will occur....that the city council or the state government there.....have to react, and make some really stringent rules or invoke some kind of 'pool-jail' situation. I could easily see some list created by the summer of 2020, where you've done stupid behavior and gotten yourself barred from all public pools for an entire season....with people having to flash their ID and be name-checked before entry.
I know.....it sounds silly but that's about the only way to impress upon people some logical behavior.
Bahn, Heat, and Dependability
There are literally dozens of reports from yesterday (Friday) from across Germany, where railway services were not just delayed, but cancelled....because of the heat (five days straight of 35-plus degrees C, or 95-plus degrees F).
Journalists were showing the dramatic effect. People were standing at stations and finding that next two or three railway runs to their destination....were cancelled. All of this led to frustrations and anger. When trains did start to run as the temperature lessened in the evening hours....they were overflowing with passengers trying to get home or to their destination.
Lack of AC units? This was continually talked about, with various trains taken off-line because the units simply couldn't cool the cars to an adequate temperature.
Around five years ago, I got on a ICE-train (the fast and sleek high-speed railcars), in the midst of July. I found adequate open seats on this one car, but as I noticed upon leaving the station.....it wasn't cooling. The temperature in the cabin had to be a minimum of 50 C (122 F). I lasted about three minutes, and proceeded to the next car which was overflowing with people (minimum of 30 people standing because there wasn't enough seats).
This German government plan of doubling the use of trains, and convincing people to quit driving to work? It's because of days like this that I just simply laugh over the proposal. As dependable as people project the Bahn, it's not built to handle heat stress.
The continual problem with the AC units? This often comes up in conversation, and Germans will ask where the heck do these guys buy the units put on the modern trains? It's obviously a German product....but it's simply not designed to handle significant heat.
Better today? An Atlantic front has arrived and temperatures have dropped 10 C for today.....locally, it'll max out at 28 C (82 degrees F).
Journalists were showing the dramatic effect. People were standing at stations and finding that next two or three railway runs to their destination....were cancelled. All of this led to frustrations and anger. When trains did start to run as the temperature lessened in the evening hours....they were overflowing with passengers trying to get home or to their destination.
Lack of AC units? This was continually talked about, with various trains taken off-line because the units simply couldn't cool the cars to an adequate temperature.
Around five years ago, I got on a ICE-train (the fast and sleek high-speed railcars), in the midst of July. I found adequate open seats on this one car, but as I noticed upon leaving the station.....it wasn't cooling. The temperature in the cabin had to be a minimum of 50 C (122 F). I lasted about three minutes, and proceeded to the next car which was overflowing with people (minimum of 30 people standing because there wasn't enough seats).
This German government plan of doubling the use of trains, and convincing people to quit driving to work? It's because of days like this that I just simply laugh over the proposal. As dependable as people project the Bahn, it's not built to handle heat stress.
The continual problem with the AC units? This often comes up in conversation, and Germans will ask where the heck do these guys buy the units put on the modern trains? It's obviously a German product....but it's simply not designed to handle significant heat.
Better today? An Atlantic front has arrived and temperatures have dropped 10 C for today.....locally, it'll max out at 28 C (82 degrees F).
Friday, July 26, 2019
Bahn Chatter
It was a five-star story this morning via ARD (Channel One) on the German railway system.
Basically, the Bahn is now asking for around 86-billion Euro....to bring the system to the modern era, and fix all of the stations, bridges and networks.
It is a heck of a lot of money, and you'd have to carve off various other programs/projects....to probably meet this requirement.
The curious thing here which ought to draw people to think over and ponder.....the German government (CDU and SPD) want the current carry-capability of the Bahn....to DOUBLE by 2030. Most people who ride the Bahn on a regular basis today....will just sit there and start laughing because they see the current Bahn marginally capable of handling the current passenger load, but to discuss doubling it?
Just to the level of convincing this large group to drop their car....you'd have to go out and punish them in some way....forcing them to give up independence. I just don't see this happening. But they will go to the full scale of finding the 86-billion Euro, and spending it.....just to make the point that they tried.
Basically, the Bahn is now asking for around 86-billion Euro....to bring the system to the modern era, and fix all of the stations, bridges and networks.
It is a heck of a lot of money, and you'd have to carve off various other programs/projects....to probably meet this requirement.
The curious thing here which ought to draw people to think over and ponder.....the German government (CDU and SPD) want the current carry-capability of the Bahn....to DOUBLE by 2030. Most people who ride the Bahn on a regular basis today....will just sit there and start laughing because they see the current Bahn marginally capable of handling the current passenger load, but to discuss doubling it?
Just to the level of convincing this large group to drop their car....you'd have to go out and punish them in some way....forcing them to give up independence. I just don't see this happening. But they will go to the full scale of finding the 86-billion Euro, and spending it.....just to make the point that they tried.
Two Fight Stories
With all the heat going on, there's disputes which typically never occur in Germany, folks are a bit surprised.
So story number one....occurring in Starnberg, Bavaria (about 5 miles SW of Munich). A number of kids were wrapping up school and having a drunken spree (15-year old kids can drank, by German law). One kid screwed up.....got the cops called, and he was arrested for drunken behavior/damage.
So as his friends figured out the mess (around fifty of them)...they decided to demand the release of their friend from the cop's control. They went over to the local police station and staged a riot. Yep, a full-up mob of 15-year-old kids forcing the door open and trying to grab their friend.
The cops put out a full alert, and a fair number of cops from the region arrived to take on the mob. A couple of the leaders of the pack ended up being arrested for their behavior and the damage to the station. Charges? It appears, based on news reporting....that some judge will be involved.
The second story occurred here in Wiesbaden. Some political 'youths' from the AfD Party met at some pub in the local area, and at the same time.....a Linke Party group came in and staged a conflict. A fight of some type ensued, and the cops got called.
These connected to the heat index? I would suggest this.
So story number one....occurring in Starnberg, Bavaria (about 5 miles SW of Munich). A number of kids were wrapping up school and having a drunken spree (15-year old kids can drank, by German law). One kid screwed up.....got the cops called, and he was arrested for drunken behavior/damage.
So as his friends figured out the mess (around fifty of them)...they decided to demand the release of their friend from the cop's control. They went over to the local police station and staged a riot. Yep, a full-up mob of 15-year-old kids forcing the door open and trying to grab their friend.
The cops put out a full alert, and a fair number of cops from the region arrived to take on the mob. A couple of the leaders of the pack ended up being arrested for their behavior and the damage to the station. Charges? It appears, based on news reporting....that some judge will be involved.
The second story occurred here in Wiesbaden. Some political 'youths' from the AfD Party met at some pub in the local area, and at the same time.....a Linke Party group came in and staged a conflict. A fight of some type ensued, and the cops got called.
These connected to the heat index? I would suggest this.
Airline Chatter
So the German government laid out some data from 2018 today. For those who don't remember....about twenty-five years ago, when the federal folks made the decision move the Bundestag and x-number of government departments from Bonn to Berlin....some agencies and departments were allowed to stay in Bonn. The discussion at the time was that these people had settled in....bought properties....and had kids in school. They were happy in Bonn.
How would this division work? This was never laid out in public view.
Today, the Germans discussed the arrangement....for 2018 by itself, 230,000 round-trip tickets were purchased and used....to bring x-number of Berlin folks to Bonn, or Bonn folks to Berlin. Airline tickets....virtually all of them. If you do the math and figure five days a week, there's roughly 850 folks per day who made a trip one way, or another. Did they stay over night? Well, that would include the hotel and taxi ride. You might have some government 'boss' who made five trips a month, with a minimum of one night in a hotel for each trip....so you can figure he is costing you around a thousand Euro a month on travel.
The need for face-to-face contact? No one really talks about that, or the use of video-chat.
If you halted this practice? Around Koln (the local airport near Bonn), this would bring up the topic of 150-plus flights that occur, and if the majority of these are full of government workers.
Serious waste of money? Probably. But go try to halt this and see how upset folks get. Just on affairs alone, there's probably 300 individuals making the trip just to see their 'friend'.
How would this division work? This was never laid out in public view.
Today, the Germans discussed the arrangement....for 2018 by itself, 230,000 round-trip tickets were purchased and used....to bring x-number of Berlin folks to Bonn, or Bonn folks to Berlin. Airline tickets....virtually all of them. If you do the math and figure five days a week, there's roughly 850 folks per day who made a trip one way, or another. Did they stay over night? Well, that would include the hotel and taxi ride. You might have some government 'boss' who made five trips a month, with a minimum of one night in a hotel for each trip....so you can figure he is costing you around a thousand Euro a month on travel.
The need for face-to-face contact? No one really talks about that, or the use of video-chat.
If you halted this practice? Around Koln (the local airport near Bonn), this would bring up the topic of 150-plus flights that occur, and if the majority of these are full of government workers.
Serious waste of money? Probably. But go try to halt this and see how upset folks get. Just on affairs alone, there's probably 300 individuals making the trip just to see their 'friend'.
Advice on Safe Travel in Europe
A lot of people have impressions of safety issues in Europe, and I'd like to offer ten observations for your travels, if you were planning a trip:
1. Metropolitan cities in Europe are the ones which are attracting trouble-makers, pick-pockets, high drug use, and theft. If you stuck with smaller towns and villages, you would find a safer environment. It's not to say that Amsterdam, Frankfurt, or Vienna are trouble-hot-spots.....but they just seem to attract a higher percentage of problems.
2. Drug and alcohol abuse are probably double what it was in the 1990s. A lot of this involves new residents of Europe, who see it as a 'Disneyland' of sorts.
3. Stay at 4-star hotels or better. The better hotels have relationships with the city council and police, and ensure that their visitors are safer. Ask the front desk guy about safe areas, or areas to avoid. He or she, will give you a list of places.
4. If you think you are being stalked....don't waste time trying to get cops, who may or may not react anyway. Duck into a cafe, restaurant, or pub....ask them to call you a cab, and leave the area.
5. Train-stations are a magnet for the wrong crowd, especially at night.
6. Folks with mental issues and paranoid schizophrenia are part of the landscape now of most European cities. Just be aware of that possibility existing.
7. Once confronted by some idiot with a knife....offer up your 'riches' and quietly get out of the situation.
8. Pickpocket folks are continually looking for 'prey'. The more crowded the circumstance, the better chance for a successful robbery. Pay attention to the landscape, and those who are just standing there and watching people.
9. Don't carry a big purse, or put your billfold in the back-pocket of your pants.
10. The drug-addicted crowd are looking for quick and easy robberies. They just need enough money to score the next 'fix'. Be aware of that.
1. Metropolitan cities in Europe are the ones which are attracting trouble-makers, pick-pockets, high drug use, and theft. If you stuck with smaller towns and villages, you would find a safer environment. It's not to say that Amsterdam, Frankfurt, or Vienna are trouble-hot-spots.....but they just seem to attract a higher percentage of problems.
2. Drug and alcohol abuse are probably double what it was in the 1990s. A lot of this involves new residents of Europe, who see it as a 'Disneyland' of sorts.
3. Stay at 4-star hotels or better. The better hotels have relationships with the city council and police, and ensure that their visitors are safer. Ask the front desk guy about safe areas, or areas to avoid. He or she, will give you a list of places.
4. If you think you are being stalked....don't waste time trying to get cops, who may or may not react anyway. Duck into a cafe, restaurant, or pub....ask them to call you a cab, and leave the area.
5. Train-stations are a magnet for the wrong crowd, especially at night.
6. Folks with mental issues and paranoid schizophrenia are part of the landscape now of most European cities. Just be aware of that possibility existing.
7. Once confronted by some idiot with a knife....offer up your 'riches' and quietly get out of the situation.
8. Pickpocket folks are continually looking for 'prey'. The more crowded the circumstance, the better chance for a successful robbery. Pay attention to the landscape, and those who are just standing there and watching people.
9. Don't carry a big purse, or put your billfold in the back-pocket of your pants.
10. The drug-addicted crowd are looking for quick and easy robberies. They just need enough money to score the next 'fix'. Be aware of that.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Explaining ASAP Rocky's Swedish Adventure
So, there's this American rapper.....A$AP Rocky (aka Rakim Mayers) who was appearing at some music fest in Norway.
Around 30 June....out on the street in Sweden (days before the fest).....there is this altercation on the street.
There's a video up and you can watch the basis of this episode via YouTube.
What I see is ASAP with a small entourage, and a body-guard on the street and being followed by these two Swedes, who don't appear to be blonde. My guess....Middle-Eastern and some immigrant situation.
The two Swedes just keep walking behind them. No explanation. At some point, the body-guard tells them to back off....don't follow them. The two Swedes go through some act....like they might cooperate but then they come right back.
Based on the video....I can't say they were coherent, and maybe they were under the influence of alcohol or a stimulant of some type.
So a scuffle breaks out. Mostly the body-guard and one of the Swedes. Then the Swede throws his headset to the ground, and gets all riled up (maybe he was provoked but the video just seems to leave you at a loss over what this scuffle was all about).
So cops come on 3 July, and detain ASAP Rocky. The Swedes say....let us investigate. Twenty-one days of investigation occur. Why? If this had occurred in NY City or Baltimore....it'd be a one-page statement by the cops and maybe five eyewitnesses....all done in a matter of three days. By the seventh day, either the guy would be charged or it'd be dropped.
After a week of this, the investigation continues on. Why? No one can say why. Charges against the two Swedes who were stalking the entourage? No. Charges against the body-guard? No. Charges against Rocky? Well, today (Thursday), they decided on charges (potentially up to two years)....involving assault. If Rocky has just agreed to be beat up by the two, I think it would have been OK for him.
Oddities?
1. The two Swedes? No one in Sweden talks about them....no journalist or news source. A name was dropped in public today, but otherwise, nothing is said.
2. Use of Swedish by the two Swedes? After watching the video, my impression is that they didn't speak much Swedish, and marginally knew some English.
3. Why stalking? No one explains that. Although I get the impression that a lot of Swedes stalk each other, and that's apparently not an issue there.
4. Interference by President Trump with the phone-call? The PM in Sweden basically said that he has zero power over the prosecutors and judges. This is by Swedish law. One gets the impression that the prosecutor and judges also have zero power over the PM, but maybe that's just a false impression. It may be that no one is in charge in Sweden, and they just sit and grin.
So what happens now?
Rocky will hire a Swedish lawyer and I'm guessing a legal case will be heard in about two to three months. Does it draw unfair attention to Sweden? Oh, that's very likely......with various rapsters and music folks likely to suggest a boycott to occur.
Guilty episode? I think Rocky will be told to just confess to the whole thing....maybe admit he was high on dope or drunk, and he doesn't remember anything because he crashed his head on the concrete after one of the Swedes hit him. In fact, he could make up some whole lyric about doping in Sweden.
The prosecutor or judges worried about negative press? No. They are Swedes and there's nothing to worry about.
At the end of this....Rocky will end up doing a year in some Swedish jail, and musicians will just admit the truth....Sweden isn't the wonderland that people have openly hinted at. And all of this....due to two guys who marginally speak Swedish and might not have been in full control of their behavior. Kinda makes the script for a five-star movie if you ask me.
Around 30 June....out on the street in Sweden (days before the fest).....there is this altercation on the street.
There's a video up and you can watch the basis of this episode via YouTube.
What I see is ASAP with a small entourage, and a body-guard on the street and being followed by these two Swedes, who don't appear to be blonde. My guess....Middle-Eastern and some immigrant situation.
The two Swedes just keep walking behind them. No explanation. At some point, the body-guard tells them to back off....don't follow them. The two Swedes go through some act....like they might cooperate but then they come right back.
Based on the video....I can't say they were coherent, and maybe they were under the influence of alcohol or a stimulant of some type.
So a scuffle breaks out. Mostly the body-guard and one of the Swedes. Then the Swede throws his headset to the ground, and gets all riled up (maybe he was provoked but the video just seems to leave you at a loss over what this scuffle was all about).
So cops come on 3 July, and detain ASAP Rocky. The Swedes say....let us investigate. Twenty-one days of investigation occur. Why? If this had occurred in NY City or Baltimore....it'd be a one-page statement by the cops and maybe five eyewitnesses....all done in a matter of three days. By the seventh day, either the guy would be charged or it'd be dropped.
After a week of this, the investigation continues on. Why? No one can say why. Charges against the two Swedes who were stalking the entourage? No. Charges against the body-guard? No. Charges against Rocky? Well, today (Thursday), they decided on charges (potentially up to two years)....involving assault. If Rocky has just agreed to be beat up by the two, I think it would have been OK for him.
Oddities?
1. The two Swedes? No one in Sweden talks about them....no journalist or news source. A name was dropped in public today, but otherwise, nothing is said.
2. Use of Swedish by the two Swedes? After watching the video, my impression is that they didn't speak much Swedish, and marginally knew some English.
3. Why stalking? No one explains that. Although I get the impression that a lot of Swedes stalk each other, and that's apparently not an issue there.
4. Interference by President Trump with the phone-call? The PM in Sweden basically said that he has zero power over the prosecutors and judges. This is by Swedish law. One gets the impression that the prosecutor and judges also have zero power over the PM, but maybe that's just a false impression. It may be that no one is in charge in Sweden, and they just sit and grin.
So what happens now?
Rocky will hire a Swedish lawyer and I'm guessing a legal case will be heard in about two to three months. Does it draw unfair attention to Sweden? Oh, that's very likely......with various rapsters and music folks likely to suggest a boycott to occur.
Guilty episode? I think Rocky will be told to just confess to the whole thing....maybe admit he was high on dope or drunk, and he doesn't remember anything because he crashed his head on the concrete after one of the Swedes hit him. In fact, he could make up some whole lyric about doping in Sweden.
The prosecutor or judges worried about negative press? No. They are Swedes and there's nothing to worry about.
At the end of this....Rocky will end up doing a year in some Swedish jail, and musicians will just admit the truth....Sweden isn't the wonderland that people have openly hinted at. And all of this....due to two guys who marginally speak Swedish and might not have been in full control of their behavior. Kinda makes the script for a five-star movie if you ask me.
40 C?
Yes, the temperature device I keep on wall....hit 104 degrees F (40 C) today. Pretty much a record.
Global climate change? Well....here's the thing. A major front came up from northern Africa (the Sahara region), and the Gulf Stream which should have pushed it out into the Atlantic and spew a major front toward the US? It instead, went north, past Italy, and through Germany.
No one can remember a front like this, and it having some sand-grit in the wind (very marginal if you ask me). Added to this temperature business, a serious drought which is not into the third month. The fronts that would have come from Ireland, and brought rains down into central Germany? Because of the Gulf Stream deal.....it's missed it's target.
So how does this affect Germans? Concrete buildings (without AC) suck in the heat, and act as a heat magnet. So your house or apartment doesn't really cool off until 11 or 12 PM at night. You have the windows open at that point and hope to gather some summer night-time relief, but it usually works only in a marginal way.
This morning, the weather guy even put out a special warning to avoid all outdoor work, like mowing or gardening today.
When does it end? Some evidence suggests that a major western front will start on Saturday....bringing in lesser temperatures, some rain and relief by Monday.
But this chatter about climate change? Well, you have to go and explain the Gulf Stream to people and then ask how they envision climate change occurring with this African wind business. The Germans typically respond....well, it's just climate change and don't try to outsmart me.
Global climate change? Well....here's the thing. A major front came up from northern Africa (the Sahara region), and the Gulf Stream which should have pushed it out into the Atlantic and spew a major front toward the US? It instead, went north, past Italy, and through Germany.
No one can remember a front like this, and it having some sand-grit in the wind (very marginal if you ask me). Added to this temperature business, a serious drought which is not into the third month. The fronts that would have come from Ireland, and brought rains down into central Germany? Because of the Gulf Stream deal.....it's missed it's target.
So how does this affect Germans? Concrete buildings (without AC) suck in the heat, and act as a heat magnet. So your house or apartment doesn't really cool off until 11 or 12 PM at night. You have the windows open at that point and hope to gather some summer night-time relief, but it usually works only in a marginal way.
This morning, the weather guy even put out a special warning to avoid all outdoor work, like mowing or gardening today.
When does it end? Some evidence suggests that a major western front will start on Saturday....bringing in lesser temperatures, some rain and relief by Monday.
But this chatter about climate change? Well, you have to go and explain the Gulf Stream to people and then ask how they envision climate change occurring with this African wind business. The Germans typically respond....well, it's just climate change and don't try to outsmart me.
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Germany and 'Weapons'
If the cops pull you over and ask to view your car, or you are downtown in a 'protected' zone, with them asking to frisk you or check your bag....these weapons will get you into trouble.
So here is the amusing thing. After looking over the list....I have six of these, which sit within my house.
The baseball bat (two of them), the Swiss Army knife, the Gerber knife, the tear-gas container, etc.
The amusing thing is that 30 years ago....other than switchblades....that was probably the only weapon that cops had rules about and enforced.
Lately? There's not a single day in Wiesbaden where you don't have some report of a threat being made with one of these weapons. The pistols at the bottom? These are the BB-type or the pellet-type....just as illegal. Those get reported in local crimes several times a week. The sad thing is that one day....a cop will walk into the scene....draw his gun, and shoot the stupid kid with the BB-pistol.
The Return From Vacation Story
About a week ago, most all politicians in Berlin (all 700-odd members of the Bundestag), took off for their long-planned vacations.
Well....they were forced by rules to return today (basically a one-day session) to have AKK give the oath to being the next Defense Minister.
If you added it up....it's probably upward to a thousand Euro minimum for each person, to pay for some round-trip ticket to get them back from Spain, or Greece, or Thailand, or Canada.
There's been some whining about this rule, and why all Bundestag members have to be physically present.
Well....they were forced by rules to return today (basically a one-day session) to have AKK give the oath to being the next Defense Minister.
If you added it up....it's probably upward to a thousand Euro minimum for each person, to pay for some round-trip ticket to get them back from Spain, or Greece, or Thailand, or Canada.
There's been some whining about this rule, and why all Bundestag members have to be physically present.
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
In-Country Flight Chatter
This chatter today about jet fuel taxes going up on inside-of-Germany fuels? Well, the Greens are pushing it, and I'd give it a 70-percent chance of passing (maybe toward the end of the year being implemented).
If you tried to fly from Munich to Hamburg.....the tax would be inserted. If you flew from Hamburg to Amsterdam.....it wouldn't be inserted. Crazy?
Well, here's the funny thing. If you lived in Frankfurt and wanted to fly to Berlin....it'd end up being cheaper to fly from Frankfurt to Lux City, then onto Berlin. If you lived in Munich and wanted to fly to Hamburg, it'd be cheaper to arrange the flight from Munich to Vienna, then onto Hamburg. If you lived in Berlin, and wanted a flight to Koln? It'd be cheaper to fly onto Brussels, and flip to the next Koln flight.
If you tried to fly from Munich to Hamburg.....the tax would be inserted. If you flew from Hamburg to Amsterdam.....it wouldn't be inserted. Crazy?
Well, here's the funny thing. If you lived in Frankfurt and wanted to fly to Berlin....it'd end up being cheaper to fly from Frankfurt to Lux City, then onto Berlin. If you lived in Munich and wanted to fly to Hamburg, it'd be cheaper to arrange the flight from Munich to Vienna, then onto Hamburg. If you lived in Berlin, and wanted a flight to Koln? It'd be cheaper to fly onto Brussels, and flip to the next Koln flight.
Migrant Update Story
If you follow German news, there's an interesting twist to the sea rescue business. A couple of countries within the EU came yesterday to an agreement.
Fourteen EU countries said that they would accept some distribution of rescued migrants from the Med. The countries? Well....in public, it was listed as Finland, Croatia, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, France, Germany, and 'others'. Why 'others'? That wasn't clearly laid out. Some of the details might involve a limit, and these are still details to be worked out.
So what will happen here is that a distribution will occur out of Italian refugee camps. A bus will pull up at x-camp, and forty-odd folks will board to x-country. The refugee might be asking which country.....because they really don't want to go over this country or that country.....but in this case, there's no choice.
Will they accept this 'busing'? I have some doubts that it'll be fully accepted. You may wake up in four months to realize that the 200-odd migrants brought to Portugal have mostly up and left (for Germany). Will they be bused back? Unknown.
This is rarely brought up in the news media, but if you read through migrant chatter....they typically want to resettle in France, Germany, or the UK.
Why only fourteen out of the twenty-eight EU members? No one speaks to this part of the discussion. My guess would center on most wanting a evaluation process and the German developed program here is to accept them....period.
The odds that rescues and more incoming folks will occur? Oh.....it's up around 100-percent.
But let's be honest....this gets these people out of the temp Italian camp, and into some new more positive situation....even if they don't want to be in Finland because of the harsh winters.
Fourteen EU countries said that they would accept some distribution of rescued migrants from the Med. The countries? Well....in public, it was listed as Finland, Croatia, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, France, Germany, and 'others'. Why 'others'? That wasn't clearly laid out. Some of the details might involve a limit, and these are still details to be worked out.
So what will happen here is that a distribution will occur out of Italian refugee camps. A bus will pull up at x-camp, and forty-odd folks will board to x-country. The refugee might be asking which country.....because they really don't want to go over this country or that country.....but in this case, there's no choice.
Will they accept this 'busing'? I have some doubts that it'll be fully accepted. You may wake up in four months to realize that the 200-odd migrants brought to Portugal have mostly up and left (for Germany). Will they be bused back? Unknown.
This is rarely brought up in the news media, but if you read through migrant chatter....they typically want to resettle in France, Germany, or the UK.
Why only fourteen out of the twenty-eight EU members? No one speaks to this part of the discussion. My guess would center on most wanting a evaluation process and the German developed program here is to accept them....period.
The odds that rescues and more incoming folks will occur? Oh.....it's up around 100-percent.
But let's be honest....this gets these people out of the temp Italian camp, and into some new more positive situation....even if they don't want to be in Finland because of the harsh winters.
Monday, July 22, 2019
The 112-Story
If you live in Germany and dial '112'.....that gets you the ambulance folks. In simple terms....an emergency doctor and crew to react to your dire situation. If you ask a German to define the dire situation....then things get a bit wordy and complicated.
Some types of emergencies are obvious....like you fell down the stairs and have a broken leg. Or you ran off the road with your bike and you have a concussion. But there are folks who have some type of problem which might not really be an emergency, but it ends up with the doctor and crew there, and a trip to the emergency room.
There's a new bill drifting around the Bundestag....presented by the Health Minister (CDU, Jens Spahn). Under his wording, the emergency team or the folks on the telephone would be required to assess the situation, and then state for a 'fact'....that you are in dire shape, or you can wait until tomorrow and just visit your regular doctor (out-patient).
This is designed to lessen the number of folks showing up in emergency rooms. Numbers? None presented. The general chatter is that about a quarter of all folks in the 112-'bucket'....simply aren't in a dire situation.
Odds that it'll pass? Unknown. None of the other parties are talking about this idea much. Do the emergency folks want this power of assessing? That's unclear as well.
Some types of emergencies are obvious....like you fell down the stairs and have a broken leg. Or you ran off the road with your bike and you have a concussion. But there are folks who have some type of problem which might not really be an emergency, but it ends up with the doctor and crew there, and a trip to the emergency room.
There's a new bill drifting around the Bundestag....presented by the Health Minister (CDU, Jens Spahn). Under his wording, the emergency team or the folks on the telephone would be required to assess the situation, and then state for a 'fact'....that you are in dire shape, or you can wait until tomorrow and just visit your regular doctor (out-patient).
This is designed to lessen the number of folks showing up in emergency rooms. Numbers? None presented. The general chatter is that about a quarter of all folks in the 112-'bucket'....simply aren't in a dire situation.
Odds that it'll pass? Unknown. None of the other parties are talking about this idea much. Do the emergency folks want this power of assessing? That's unclear as well.
Bike Story
Statistics came out for the nation of Germany yesterday, and there was a bit of a shocker on the list....445 Germans were killed in 2018 via bicycle accidents.
It's roughly a 17-percent increase over 2017.
A trend? I think ever since the battery bikes came out....it seems that biking has been invigorated and increased. More bicyclists....more opportunities for accidents.
A lot of this simply involves urbanized traffic, and bicyclists trying to maneuver through heavy traffic involving cars and delivery vehicles.
It's roughly a 17-percent increase over 2017.
A trend? I think ever since the battery bikes came out....it seems that biking has been invigorated and increased. More bicyclists....more opportunities for accidents.
A lot of this simply involves urbanized traffic, and bicyclists trying to maneuver through heavy traffic involving cars and delivery vehicles.
Not To Be Confused
Often you assemble German data or statistics on immigration or asylum, you have to take in the 'big picture'.
Just because the BaMF folks (in charge of immigration for Germany) say that 500,000 arrived....it doesn't mean 500,000 asylum-seekers. It means that various groups either asked for immigration status, work status, or asylum.
A good example....you could have 25,000 Poles arrive and announce themselves. Because Poland is part of the EU, other than registering at the local city hall....they have the right to work there in Germany. Those 25,000 Poles would be counted as part of the 500,000 number. The same would be true for 10,000-odd Greeks coming for a job, or 12,000 Italians.
Another example....Americans could be counted in on the 500,000 number but they chiefly come in on jobs offered and gain work papers. The vast majority are not asking for immigration status or asylum status. Their primary intent would be to work for some German company for three to five years, then return to the US.
Chinese requesting immigration status? They could be counted as part of the 500,000. Most are bringing in some cash, and want a business venture (a shop, a restaurant, a hotel, etc. They are not asylum-seekers.
So who typically comes to claim asylum (not asking for a work-visa or plain immigration)? It's typically people who don't have a lot of opportunity, chances, or leaving a war-zone. For some, there's the belief that asylum is a guaranteed thing. Statistics for the German approvals don't really agree with the term 'guaranteed thing'. If you have the war zone status, there's a higher approval rate, and no one disagrees about that. For people from some country in serious economic negativity? The approval rate isn't that high. You improve your odds by having a skill-craft or university degree. If the best you've done over the past five years is operate a fruit-cart....well, it just doesn't work on approval of a visa.
A lot of data which just doesn't easily tell a story? Yes, and for Germans....this is difficult to assemble and rationalize some trend, or some failure. You could probably gather data from the past decade from BamF and show that virtually every single South Korean (except for the five in Frankfurt accused of torture and 2nd-degree murder) have been honest and productive immigrants. You can probably assemble all the data for the Venezuelans who've come in the past five years....to show not a single arrest has occurred within that group. You can probably find data to suggest all Syrians with a university degree have assimilated into German society, and been productive assets for the nation.
How all this figures into the new Med-rescue crisis? Well, that's the curious thing. When you see this played out, most of the pro-rescue crowd wants pre-approved scenarios for the rescued, meaning they won't fill out the paperwork or be given a process of approval. That suggests that the applicant probably doesn't have the war-zone situation being played out, and that their education/skill craft doesn't really amount to much. In other words....if you followed the traditional process....most of the rescued would fail the applicant process.
So if all of this chatter is a bit confusing....well, asylum, integration and immigration just isn't a practical 'science' or anchored-down process. As much as you'd think that the Germans would go and define one single process and path....it goes into revisions or evolution almost every single year.
Just because the BaMF folks (in charge of immigration for Germany) say that 500,000 arrived....it doesn't mean 500,000 asylum-seekers. It means that various groups either asked for immigration status, work status, or asylum.
A good example....you could have 25,000 Poles arrive and announce themselves. Because Poland is part of the EU, other than registering at the local city hall....they have the right to work there in Germany. Those 25,000 Poles would be counted as part of the 500,000 number. The same would be true for 10,000-odd Greeks coming for a job, or 12,000 Italians.
Another example....Americans could be counted in on the 500,000 number but they chiefly come in on jobs offered and gain work papers. The vast majority are not asking for immigration status or asylum status. Their primary intent would be to work for some German company for three to five years, then return to the US.
Chinese requesting immigration status? They could be counted as part of the 500,000. Most are bringing in some cash, and want a business venture (a shop, a restaurant, a hotel, etc. They are not asylum-seekers.
So who typically comes to claim asylum (not asking for a work-visa or plain immigration)? It's typically people who don't have a lot of opportunity, chances, or leaving a war-zone. For some, there's the belief that asylum is a guaranteed thing. Statistics for the German approvals don't really agree with the term 'guaranteed thing'. If you have the war zone status, there's a higher approval rate, and no one disagrees about that. For people from some country in serious economic negativity? The approval rate isn't that high. You improve your odds by having a skill-craft or university degree. If the best you've done over the past five years is operate a fruit-cart....well, it just doesn't work on approval of a visa.
A lot of data which just doesn't easily tell a story? Yes, and for Germans....this is difficult to assemble and rationalize some trend, or some failure. You could probably gather data from the past decade from BamF and show that virtually every single South Korean (except for the five in Frankfurt accused of torture and 2nd-degree murder) have been honest and productive immigrants. You can probably assemble all the data for the Venezuelans who've come in the past five years....to show not a single arrest has occurred within that group. You can probably find data to suggest all Syrians with a university degree have assimilated into German society, and been productive assets for the nation.
How all this figures into the new Med-rescue crisis? Well, that's the curious thing. When you see this played out, most of the pro-rescue crowd wants pre-approved scenarios for the rescued, meaning they won't fill out the paperwork or be given a process of approval. That suggests that the applicant probably doesn't have the war-zone situation being played out, and that their education/skill craft doesn't really amount to much. In other words....if you followed the traditional process....most of the rescued would fail the applicant process.
So if all of this chatter is a bit confusing....well, asylum, integration and immigration just isn't a practical 'science' or anchored-down process. As much as you'd think that the Germans would go and define one single process and path....it goes into revisions or evolution almost every single year.
First Priority of the New Defense Minister?
It's interesting how this story is quickly being projected with the new German Defense Minister (AKK). She said that she's going to push for higher funding (near the 2-percent of GDP that NATO mandates).
Will she get it?
No. The SPD, hold the Finance Minister position, and have no intention of raising the funding level.
So it's wasted chatter? For the most part.
Will she get it?
No. The SPD, hold the Finance Minister position, and have no intention of raising the funding level.
So it's wasted chatter? For the most part.
Sunday, July 21, 2019
Airline Travel Story
It's a comical data collection, but the German Federal Aviation Association went out and tasked the government (the German federal folks) to provide data on air travel, and how political parties 'rate'.
What the statistics show is that Green Party leads the government in terms of official travel via the airlines. Forty-six percent of their folks had done so. They were followed by the FDP (45-percent) and CDU (40-percent).
The party with the least amount of airline travel? AfD, with 26-percent.
What kind of story does it tell? Well, it wasn't a pleasant thing for the Greens to admit this number.
My humble guess is that the Greens often attend conferences way beyond the German borders, that have to deal with environmental topics, and they would rather fly than take trains or drive there.
A slam against them? No, but it's not exactly a positive thing to admit. My guess is that they are going to force a lot of people to skip conferences in the future, or travel by van or train when possible.
What the statistics show is that Green Party leads the government in terms of official travel via the airlines. Forty-six percent of their folks had done so. They were followed by the FDP (45-percent) and CDU (40-percent).
The party with the least amount of airline travel? AfD, with 26-percent.
What kind of story does it tell? Well, it wasn't a pleasant thing for the Greens to admit this number.
My humble guess is that the Greens often attend conferences way beyond the German borders, that have to deal with environmental topics, and they would rather fly than take trains or drive there.
A slam against them? No, but it's not exactly a positive thing to admit. My guess is that they are going to force a lot of people to skip conferences in the future, or travel by van or train when possible.
Assault Story
It's a page three type statistic but it really says something about cops, German expectations, and public safety.
Over the past four years, physical and violent confrontations (assaults) on German cops have risen 25-percent. Every single day, they average across the sixteen states....32 attacks per day.
The landscape? Cops are now routinely deployed to hotspots....train-stations....mid-town shopping districts...fests...and neighborhoods with trends toward trouble. They have a general routine. Two cops working together, walking up to the questionable guy to ask for an ID and what the problem is. They have training to defuse confrontations, but if you look at how things are progressing, between alcohol and drugs influencing their behavior.....the situation spirals into potential problems.
Why the trend? Part of this is the responsibility of the mayor and city council, who have heat put upon them and they escalate this to the police chief 'to maintain order'. So the chief tells the cops where to deploy, how to aggressively handle things, and all of this is supposed to be a positive situation for the general public.
Influence of migrants and immigrants? If anything, they've gotten introduced to nifty drugs and alcohol, which they didn't have back in the old country. I won't go and suggest that they represent the bulk of this pattern because NO statistics exist to prove that point. You could go and suggest some non-Germans in the mix, but that's going to include Turks, Serbs, Russians, etc.
The potential that this attack-mentality will cause long term problems for the cops? Its a possibility. This isn't the normal world that German cops approaching 20 years of service had to face in the early part of their career. You now have to view situations where some drunk, or some hyped-up and argumentative guy believes he can get out of a situation by threatening the cop.
The public view? My guess is that most Germans are asking where this aggression came from, and why people aren't cooperative with the cops.
Over the past four years, physical and violent confrontations (assaults) on German cops have risen 25-percent. Every single day, they average across the sixteen states....32 attacks per day.
The landscape? Cops are now routinely deployed to hotspots....train-stations....mid-town shopping districts...fests...and neighborhoods with trends toward trouble. They have a general routine. Two cops working together, walking up to the questionable guy to ask for an ID and what the problem is. They have training to defuse confrontations, but if you look at how things are progressing, between alcohol and drugs influencing their behavior.....the situation spirals into potential problems.
Why the trend? Part of this is the responsibility of the mayor and city council, who have heat put upon them and they escalate this to the police chief 'to maintain order'. So the chief tells the cops where to deploy, how to aggressively handle things, and all of this is supposed to be a positive situation for the general public.
Influence of migrants and immigrants? If anything, they've gotten introduced to nifty drugs and alcohol, which they didn't have back in the old country. I won't go and suggest that they represent the bulk of this pattern because NO statistics exist to prove that point. You could go and suggest some non-Germans in the mix, but that's going to include Turks, Serbs, Russians, etc.
The potential that this attack-mentality will cause long term problems for the cops? Its a possibility. This isn't the normal world that German cops approaching 20 years of service had to face in the early part of their career. You now have to view situations where some drunk, or some hyped-up and argumentative guy believes he can get out of a situation by threatening the cop.
The public view? My guess is that most Germans are asking where this aggression came from, and why people aren't cooperative with the cops.
How the German C02 Tax Will Reshape Driving Habits
If this C02 tax goes into place (still yet to be certain), the 2020 tax added would be 10 Euro cents per liter. Figure 12-cents (US currency).
A typical car holds 45 liters of fuel, so this would add up to 4.50 Euro for each filled tank (roughly 5 US dollars) of added tax. So lets use a Audi A5, and figure mileage.
The typical A5 will get you around 5.7 to 8 liters per hundred kilometers. The slower and lesser aggressive driving....gets you closer to the 5.7 number. What kind of speed are we talking about? Mostly 80 to 100 kph or 50 to 62 mph. The high speed (say over 130 kph or 80 mph) would get you closer to 8 liters for a hundred kilometers.
So if you did a transition or worried to the max about the cost factor, then you'd drive the 80 to 100 kph....to reach 5.7 liters. In relationship? You'd have around a minimum of six extra liters in your tank and thus save 60 cents plus the cost of normal gas.
A big deal at 10 cents per liter? No.
But here's the thing....half-way through this decade (2025), it's going to 30 cents. And by 2030, it'll be 50 cents per liter on the C02 tax.
My guess is that a fair number of Germans will try to figure some way to save, adapting to the cost factor, and lessening their speed whenever possible. The idea that you might see some medium-sized cars sold with a tiny 1.2 engine? There might be a series or two introduced before we get to the only e-car era (after 2030).
Just something to think about.
A typical car holds 45 liters of fuel, so this would add up to 4.50 Euro for each filled tank (roughly 5 US dollars) of added tax. So lets use a Audi A5, and figure mileage.
The typical A5 will get you around 5.7 to 8 liters per hundred kilometers. The slower and lesser aggressive driving....gets you closer to the 5.7 number. What kind of speed are we talking about? Mostly 80 to 100 kph or 50 to 62 mph. The high speed (say over 130 kph or 80 mph) would get you closer to 8 liters for a hundred kilometers.
So if you did a transition or worried to the max about the cost factor, then you'd drive the 80 to 100 kph....to reach 5.7 liters. In relationship? You'd have around a minimum of six extra liters in your tank and thus save 60 cents plus the cost of normal gas.
A big deal at 10 cents per liter? No.
But here's the thing....half-way through this decade (2025), it's going to 30 cents. And by 2030, it'll be 50 cents per liter on the C02 tax.
My guess is that a fair number of Germans will try to figure some way to save, adapting to the cost factor, and lessening their speed whenever possible. The idea that you might see some medium-sized cars sold with a tiny 1.2 engine? There might be a series or two introduced before we get to the only e-car era (after 2030).
Just something to think about.
The 3,800 Story
It's a page-two type story in Germany this weekend, and you have to ponder over how it'll play out.
So, the 'Doctors Without Borders' group has sent this 'message' (request) to the German authorities. They want Germany to take in approximately 3,800 non-Libyan refugees currently in Libya. Chief reason? The Libyan coast guard operation is actually going and picking up rubber rafts to a small degree, and bringing the individuals back into Libya (something that the Italian government wants to increase to a major degree).
Once these raft-folks get brought back into Libya....they get dumped into camps which are marginally acceptable. Lets face it, Libya would prefer these folks go back to their original countries.
You might go and ask....if they take the 3,800 refugees....is that the end of the discussion? Well....no. What some people suggest is that roughly half-a-million non-Libyans are in some funnel at present, waiting on their chance to pay some smuggler group for a seat on a raft and hope to be dragged out far enough to get 'rescued' to Lampedusa (the Italian isle). Is the half-a-million number accurate? That gets argued about, and some folks think it's on the low end....suggesting that it's closer to one-million.
How would this all work?
This gets to an interesting scenario. You'd basically need German journalists (mostly with public TV like ZDF and ARD) to launch a story-trend where video is shot in the refugee camp, and some woeful tale is woven....that kindness of Germans needs to find a way to help these poor 3,800 folks. You'd find the right crew to appear on public forum TV programs, and seek some public support. Then you'd find the right three or four political figures (maybe Merkel in the mix) to support the idea.
The timing on this? It has to occur ONLY after the three state elections in the fall (after 27 October). A week or two after that election, the CDU and SPD can invent some crisis chatter, and agree to empty out compound X. What you will notice is that the Libyans will realize the intention at work, and the 3,800 folks in the compound will increase (maybe to 6,000....maybe to 8,000).
As the group starts to arrive in Germany....someone will ask if they have to do the paperwork like the Syrians and Iraqis did, and find that some new rule was invented where there is no BAMF paperwork process or approval.
At this point, some Germans will turn and start asking a lot of stupid questions and find virtually no public TV journalist interested....or any politician willing to talk in public about the matter.
The empty compound back in Libya? Within days, it'll be refilled with a thousand migrants, and start on the crisis number two. Two or three months later, there will be 10,000 in the compound, and waiting for the next German 'rescue'.
So, the 'Doctors Without Borders' group has sent this 'message' (request) to the German authorities. They want Germany to take in approximately 3,800 non-Libyan refugees currently in Libya. Chief reason? The Libyan coast guard operation is actually going and picking up rubber rafts to a small degree, and bringing the individuals back into Libya (something that the Italian government wants to increase to a major degree).
Once these raft-folks get brought back into Libya....they get dumped into camps which are marginally acceptable. Lets face it, Libya would prefer these folks go back to their original countries.
You might go and ask....if they take the 3,800 refugees....is that the end of the discussion? Well....no. What some people suggest is that roughly half-a-million non-Libyans are in some funnel at present, waiting on their chance to pay some smuggler group for a seat on a raft and hope to be dragged out far enough to get 'rescued' to Lampedusa (the Italian isle). Is the half-a-million number accurate? That gets argued about, and some folks think it's on the low end....suggesting that it's closer to one-million.
How would this all work?
This gets to an interesting scenario. You'd basically need German journalists (mostly with public TV like ZDF and ARD) to launch a story-trend where video is shot in the refugee camp, and some woeful tale is woven....that kindness of Germans needs to find a way to help these poor 3,800 folks. You'd find the right crew to appear on public forum TV programs, and seek some public support. Then you'd find the right three or four political figures (maybe Merkel in the mix) to support the idea.
The timing on this? It has to occur ONLY after the three state elections in the fall (after 27 October). A week or two after that election, the CDU and SPD can invent some crisis chatter, and agree to empty out compound X. What you will notice is that the Libyans will realize the intention at work, and the 3,800 folks in the compound will increase (maybe to 6,000....maybe to 8,000).
As the group starts to arrive in Germany....someone will ask if they have to do the paperwork like the Syrians and Iraqis did, and find that some new rule was invented where there is no BAMF paperwork process or approval.
At this point, some Germans will turn and start asking a lot of stupid questions and find virtually no public TV journalist interested....or any politician willing to talk in public about the matter.
The empty compound back in Libya? Within days, it'll be refilled with a thousand migrants, and start on the crisis number two. Two or three months later, there will be 10,000 in the compound, and waiting for the next German 'rescue'.
Altmaier to the Rescue
If you open up the news today (Sunday), there's a five-star story sitting there and discussing a US-Germany trade issue.
So it involves the German Minister of Economic Affairs....Pete Altmaier, who recent made a trade trip to DC, and conversed with some Trump Administration folks.
Altmaier wants to work up an EU agreement on industrial products....bringing the tariff situation with US products to ZERO. Yes, you heard it....ZERO for the tariff situation.
Where have you heard that before? Oh yeah.....what President Trump said almost two years ago.....that he would bring the Germans to the table and discuss the zero percent tariff.
If this goes through? The German car industry ought to give Altmaier an award of some type....saving tons of jobs, and preventing massive chaos if a massive US tariff had been put in place.
I should note though, this is not a done deal, and the EU is the one handling the footwork that Altmaier handed over....so it's not a guaranteed deal that they can wrap this up. I also need to note that this only attaches itself to industrial-type products. Trying to bring the all-encompassing TTIP massive trade deal back up (failed from mid-2016)? No....forget about that....it'll never happen.
So it involves the German Minister of Economic Affairs....Pete Altmaier, who recent made a trade trip to DC, and conversed with some Trump Administration folks.
Altmaier wants to work up an EU agreement on industrial products....bringing the tariff situation with US products to ZERO. Yes, you heard it....ZERO for the tariff situation.
Where have you heard that before? Oh yeah.....what President Trump said almost two years ago.....that he would bring the Germans to the table and discuss the zero percent tariff.
If this goes through? The German car industry ought to give Altmaier an award of some type....saving tons of jobs, and preventing massive chaos if a massive US tariff had been put in place.
I should note though, this is not a done deal, and the EU is the one handling the footwork that Altmaier handed over....so it's not a guaranteed deal that they can wrap this up. I also need to note that this only attaches itself to industrial-type products. Trying to bring the all-encompassing TTIP massive trade deal back up (failed from mid-2016)? No....forget about that....it'll never happen.
Saturday, July 20, 2019
The Ten Ways That C02 'Enforcement' in Germany Might Be Viewed by 2030
This is my list of ten things that you might tend to notice of Germans over the next decade (in 2030), as the C02 crisis falls into play, and taxation becomes part of everyday life:
1. You go and visit a German friend in the midst of January, and note that the house temperature has now been set at 18-degrees C (64 degrees F). You notice that they are bundled up while sipping your coffee with them. You ask if this is the norm, and they admit they've had to adjust the house temperature. Then they kinda admit that nightly temperature has been lowered as well....to 17-degrees C (62 degrees F). You gaze at the cat, who is just shaking his head.
2. You call for a pizza delivery order. The 16 Euro extra large pizza of 2019 is now priced at 21 Euro, with a one-Euro delivery 'fee' tagged on. You ask about this one Euro fee, and it's part of the C02 situation, with ingredients more costly as well.
3. Your German friend who was nearing retirement age now has to admit that they may have to work an extra year (maybe two), because they have to buy a e-car for their retirement years, and it's going to cost an extra 20,000 Euro on top of what a normal gas car costs.
4. Anger and resentment in your village has boiled over because one particular neighbor (during a heat wave) has installed a significantly sized AC unit. The village has one group who are advocating an AC-hook-up tax, and the group are suggesting a state law to specially tax AC-freaks.
5. Some news team finds a couple (late 30s, no kids) who both work (in different directions) and together, they are traveling 900 km per week, and their tax by 2030 amounts to 3,200 Euro. Both continually whine about the cost, and are continually told that they need to buy e-cars to get out of the tax.
6. You have a German friend who has spent a month planning this trip. Because of the added tax on airline tickets and fuel, this guy has found the perfect way to reach Thailand. He'll use a Bahn discount ticket to reach Prague, and then board the plane for 25-percent less than it would cost out of Frankfurt. Added time? Two entire travel days for the rail part of this journey.
7. A group of politically-active Germans now watch and ask state-level and national-level politicians about their cars, their travel, and their airline cost. Politicians find themselves in continual trouble as normally accepted trips come up and they have to decline them or face public pressure.
8. You start to notice that from your German neighbors....almost half of them have added a fireplace to their house, and heat 50-percent of the house via wood, rather than heavily taxed C02 natural gas or oil. Some environmentally-inclined neighbor are furious about the tactic and want the mayor to bring up some special tax on fireplaces in the town.
9. Your German neighbor kid (13 years old) whines and complains about the heat in the classroom of the local school in mid-January....that pro-environmental kids have put pressure on the school to heat the room only to about 16C (60 F). The kid's parents are trying to coach the school staff to bring the heat up, but are met by various pro-environmental kids trying to reinforce 'saving the plantet'.
10. You have a German neighbor nearing retirement, and he's put the house up for sale, and moving to a non-C02-crisis country....Greece. He's discovered that the 3,000 Euro that he's paying year for him and the wife....would be better spent there and it's more agreeable with his future plans.
1. You go and visit a German friend in the midst of January, and note that the house temperature has now been set at 18-degrees C (64 degrees F). You notice that they are bundled up while sipping your coffee with them. You ask if this is the norm, and they admit they've had to adjust the house temperature. Then they kinda admit that nightly temperature has been lowered as well....to 17-degrees C (62 degrees F). You gaze at the cat, who is just shaking his head.
2. You call for a pizza delivery order. The 16 Euro extra large pizza of 2019 is now priced at 21 Euro, with a one-Euro delivery 'fee' tagged on. You ask about this one Euro fee, and it's part of the C02 situation, with ingredients more costly as well.
3. Your German friend who was nearing retirement age now has to admit that they may have to work an extra year (maybe two), because they have to buy a e-car for their retirement years, and it's going to cost an extra 20,000 Euro on top of what a normal gas car costs.
4. Anger and resentment in your village has boiled over because one particular neighbor (during a heat wave) has installed a significantly sized AC unit. The village has one group who are advocating an AC-hook-up tax, and the group are suggesting a state law to specially tax AC-freaks.
5. Some news team finds a couple (late 30s, no kids) who both work (in different directions) and together, they are traveling 900 km per week, and their tax by 2030 amounts to 3,200 Euro. Both continually whine about the cost, and are continually told that they need to buy e-cars to get out of the tax.
6. You have a German friend who has spent a month planning this trip. Because of the added tax on airline tickets and fuel, this guy has found the perfect way to reach Thailand. He'll use a Bahn discount ticket to reach Prague, and then board the plane for 25-percent less than it would cost out of Frankfurt. Added time? Two entire travel days for the rail part of this journey.
7. A group of politically-active Germans now watch and ask state-level and national-level politicians about their cars, their travel, and their airline cost. Politicians find themselves in continual trouble as normally accepted trips come up and they have to decline them or face public pressure.
8. You start to notice that from your German neighbors....almost half of them have added a fireplace to their house, and heat 50-percent of the house via wood, rather than heavily taxed C02 natural gas or oil. Some environmentally-inclined neighbor are furious about the tactic and want the mayor to bring up some special tax on fireplaces in the town.
9. Your German neighbor kid (13 years old) whines and complains about the heat in the classroom of the local school in mid-January....that pro-environmental kids have put pressure on the school to heat the room only to about 16C (60 F). The kid's parents are trying to coach the school staff to bring the heat up, but are met by various pro-environmental kids trying to reinforce 'saving the plantet'.
10. You have a German neighbor nearing retirement, and he's put the house up for sale, and moving to a non-C02-crisis country....Greece. He's discovered that the 3,000 Euro that he's paying year for him and the wife....would be better spent there and it's more agreeable with his future plans.
Church Story
There was a good piece on HR (my regional Hessen public TV network) which discussed the topic of 'church-quitters'.
For those who aren't aware....Germany has an official status of church membership. This basically revolves around a church tax. If you proclaim you are a Lutheran or a Catholic....the tax is taken from your salary on a monthly basis. However, you can quit. Once out.....there's no tax.
Well, the church folks are admitting that the decline is in effect and starting to become a noticeable problem. Here in Hessen for 2018....roughly 16k Catholics left the church. It's actually an increase over 2017. There's still around 1.4 million Catholics in Hessen right now but if the trend holds, and you look fifteen years into the future? You might be looking at almost a quarter of the membership gone by that point.
The Lutheran trend? It's slightly less, but they are decreasing as well.
Why? Folks will say that some of the Catholic trend goes to abuse by the priests. Added onto this....various little scandals that have occurred (which has touched both groups).
An evolving situation? Here's the thing, you can't point at anything and say that the peak has been hit or that it'll level off at some point. In fifty years, you could be looking at less than half-a-million Catholics in Hessen.
For those who aren't aware....Germany has an official status of church membership. This basically revolves around a church tax. If you proclaim you are a Lutheran or a Catholic....the tax is taken from your salary on a monthly basis. However, you can quit. Once out.....there's no tax.
Well, the church folks are admitting that the decline is in effect and starting to become a noticeable problem. Here in Hessen for 2018....roughly 16k Catholics left the church. It's actually an increase over 2017. There's still around 1.4 million Catholics in Hessen right now but if the trend holds, and you look fifteen years into the future? You might be looking at almost a quarter of the membership gone by that point.
The Lutheran trend? It's slightly less, but they are decreasing as well.
Why? Folks will say that some of the Catholic trend goes to abuse by the priests. Added onto this....various little scandals that have occurred (which has touched both groups).
An evolving situation? Here's the thing, you can't point at anything and say that the peak has been hit or that it'll level off at some point. In fifty years, you could be looking at less than half-a-million Catholics in Hessen.
This C02 Chatter
I noticed this morning that a news piece involved a question or two thrown at the Chancellor, and she responded that 'yes, there's going to be a C02 tax'.
Timing? When they return from summer vacation, this appears to be topic number one.
Cost? Well, if you are talking about gas going up....the current talk is that a 10-cent per liter tax for C02 will start by early next year. So if you figure the current average of around 1.45 Euro per liter (for gas) then gas will escalate to 1.55 Euro per liter. But here's the interesting thing....by 2025, it'd go up to 30 cents on the tax. By 2030, it'd go up to 50 cents.
The guy who really starts to get screwed? This is an interesting scenario. Because of frustration with metropolitan living, you see a lot of Germans who leave the city they work in (Frankfurt is a good example), and they live 50 to 100 kilometers outside of the city. That guy, because of the mileage he'll put in each day to reach work....will likely contribute around 500 to 1000 Euro a year in this new tax, and it'll escalate as each year goes by.
Now you might ask how all this money coming in...will be used. Well, that's the part of the episode that has not been publicly discussed. I suspect that they will plow the money back in 'gifts' to the public, fixing the pension program, repairing more bridges, and resolving the welfare crisis.
What happens if Germans get all emotional and start to deny use of cars.....with the 'gift' money in progress? This scenario has not been discussed at all, and it's entirely possible that you might wake up in 2025, and Germans have cut back 20-percent of their mileage....with a new crisis existing....'gifts' going out but not enough money existing to pay for them.
As long as the public believes the environmental crisis, this will continue forward. The minute that you start to have debate and a quarter of society reaches the non-believer status....it's going to have an affect on politics.
So this brings up the obvious question....will this gas-tax shift people around to electric cars? I have a mixed opinion about this. Right now, there is no C02 connection to electricity in this debate. Eventually, some environmental group will bring up this topic, and I suspect a tax will start there (probably after 2030). To make this whole argument on C02 work, there has to be a massive shift to e-cars over the next generation. Right now, if you were going to ask when we (in Germany) hit the 50-percent point of e-car use....it'll probably be at least 2050. Part of this is the cost for the cars, and the other being the stupid limits of charging.
At the end of this whole discussion....the real question is....will Germans cut back on mileage? And it's a big unknown.
Timing? When they return from summer vacation, this appears to be topic number one.
Cost? Well, if you are talking about gas going up....the current talk is that a 10-cent per liter tax for C02 will start by early next year. So if you figure the current average of around 1.45 Euro per liter (for gas) then gas will escalate to 1.55 Euro per liter. But here's the interesting thing....by 2025, it'd go up to 30 cents on the tax. By 2030, it'd go up to 50 cents.
The guy who really starts to get screwed? This is an interesting scenario. Because of frustration with metropolitan living, you see a lot of Germans who leave the city they work in (Frankfurt is a good example), and they live 50 to 100 kilometers outside of the city. That guy, because of the mileage he'll put in each day to reach work....will likely contribute around 500 to 1000 Euro a year in this new tax, and it'll escalate as each year goes by.
Now you might ask how all this money coming in...will be used. Well, that's the part of the episode that has not been publicly discussed. I suspect that they will plow the money back in 'gifts' to the public, fixing the pension program, repairing more bridges, and resolving the welfare crisis.
What happens if Germans get all emotional and start to deny use of cars.....with the 'gift' money in progress? This scenario has not been discussed at all, and it's entirely possible that you might wake up in 2025, and Germans have cut back 20-percent of their mileage....with a new crisis existing....'gifts' going out but not enough money existing to pay for them.
As long as the public believes the environmental crisis, this will continue forward. The minute that you start to have debate and a quarter of society reaches the non-believer status....it's going to have an affect on politics.
So this brings up the obvious question....will this gas-tax shift people around to electric cars? I have a mixed opinion about this. Right now, there is no C02 connection to electricity in this debate. Eventually, some environmental group will bring up this topic, and I suspect a tax will start there (probably after 2030). To make this whole argument on C02 work, there has to be a massive shift to e-cars over the next generation. Right now, if you were going to ask when we (in Germany) hit the 50-percent point of e-car use....it'll probably be at least 2050. Part of this is the cost for the cars, and the other being the stupid limits of charging.
At the end of this whole discussion....the real question is....will Germans cut back on mileage? And it's a big unknown.
Friday, July 19, 2019
How 'Holy' is Tempelhof?
Tempelhof, the former airport in Berlin, has been shutdown as a runway since October 2008. If you go around Berlin and discuss the area.....there's two prevailing attitudes about the former airport.
First, an awful lot of folks want it preserved 'as is'. They want the runways (two of them, one around 6k ft, and the other around 6.8k ft) buildings and adjacent area to just stay the way they are. No dismantling....no removal of the runways....no landscaping work. Nothing.
The second group of people....mostly from the CDU and SPD Parties....want to use different parts of the former airport for housing, apartments, and business operations. The Green Party and Linke folks? They oppose.
The odds of it ever been 'transformed'? There are lots of folks who see opportunity in the open space, and the location of the airport....but probably an equal number who just like the unique nature of pavements and open space. I hate to suggest it as a city-park, but that's precisely what it's become since 2008. Money for the old main-building? The city hasn't any real money up and it will eventually become an issue which demands public attention.
Seeing it? If you find Checkpoint Charlie on the map....it's around 20 minutes walking directly south from that point. I'd rate it as one of the twenty-odd things you ought to see in the city, although it's mostly just go out and stand the runway...imagine the airlift operation...and sip a beer for around twenty minutes, and then move on. You'd think there would be some great monument there to say something about Temmplehof and the airlift, but it's not like that....folks have moved on and it's simply green open space today.
First, an awful lot of folks want it preserved 'as is'. They want the runways (two of them, one around 6k ft, and the other around 6.8k ft) buildings and adjacent area to just stay the way they are. No dismantling....no removal of the runways....no landscaping work. Nothing.
The second group of people....mostly from the CDU and SPD Parties....want to use different parts of the former airport for housing, apartments, and business operations. The Green Party and Linke folks? They oppose.
The odds of it ever been 'transformed'? There are lots of folks who see opportunity in the open space, and the location of the airport....but probably an equal number who just like the unique nature of pavements and open space. I hate to suggest it as a city-park, but that's precisely what it's become since 2008. Money for the old main-building? The city hasn't any real money up and it will eventually become an issue which demands public attention.
Seeing it? If you find Checkpoint Charlie on the map....it's around 20 minutes walking directly south from that point. I'd rate it as one of the twenty-odd things you ought to see in the city, although it's mostly just go out and stand the runway...imagine the airlift operation...and sip a beer for around twenty minutes, and then move on. You'd think there would be some great monument there to say something about Temmplehof and the airlift, but it's not like that....folks have moved on and it's simply green open space today.
The UK, BREXIT and the Rest of 2019
While I have no doubt that Boris Johnson will end up as PM of the UK.....I believe that the deadline discussed (31 October set by the EU as the absolute end-point) will come, and NO new deal will be offered, and the Parliament will stall Johnson on every opportunity to simply exit.
What happens in November? I think that a vast majority of Brits will sitting there and laughing. The Johnson promise to leave? It won't occur. The EU? It'll vote to add a 100-odd day extension onto this and probably bring them into March of 2020.
The next official UK election? Not until May of 2022....a long way away.
My general belief is that Johnson will be fairly disgruntled by spring of 2020....with no exit or new deal.....with more than half of the Parliament members unable to agree to much of anything. So I think that Johnson will call it quits by October of 2020....saying that BREXIT is impossible to accomplish. The EU? They will be on extension four by that point, and promising yet another extension into the summer of 2021.
All of this, I think, will be a remarkable landscape for the one-year run-up to the 2022 election, with the Tory Party and Labour Party both unable to get any public support, and at least two or there new parties arriving with disgruntled Brits.
A comedy of sorts? Yes....it will be best described as a comedy by the general public, and laughed about for the next hundred years.
What happens in November? I think that a vast majority of Brits will sitting there and laughing. The Johnson promise to leave? It won't occur. The EU? It'll vote to add a 100-odd day extension onto this and probably bring them into March of 2020.
The next official UK election? Not until May of 2022....a long way away.
My general belief is that Johnson will be fairly disgruntled by spring of 2020....with no exit or new deal.....with more than half of the Parliament members unable to agree to much of anything. So I think that Johnson will call it quits by October of 2020....saying that BREXIT is impossible to accomplish. The EU? They will be on extension four by that point, and promising yet another extension into the summer of 2021.
All of this, I think, will be a remarkable landscape for the one-year run-up to the 2022 election, with the Tory Party and Labour Party both unable to get any public support, and at least two or there new parties arriving with disgruntled Brits.
A comedy of sorts? Yes....it will be best described as a comedy by the general public, and laughed about for the next hundred years.
Juvenile 'Bad' Behavior
It's an odd discussion over criminality in Germany.
In general, and with relations to the law....from age fourteen on, you will be treated like a juvenile 'offender' if charged up with a crime. It means you go to youth-jail for a short period, and then forced into some behavior rehab deal (run by the local social office). It's not big-time situation, but it's enough to satisfy the general public.
Well, in the past year in Germany....some crimes have been noted by youth less than fourteen years old. Their path is generally a strong talking session with a judge and enforced social office visits upon the parents to be 'responsible'. Well....the public is now suggesting that they want the youth-jail situation and rehab deal, extended down to 12-year old kids.
For the politicians and judges, it's probably a bit of a shocker that the public is suggesting this.
What's going on?
I think most older Germans would go and discuss how things were before the Wall came down, and they'd go and suggest that unacceptable behavior is now being noted....mostly with young males (yes, down to the ages of 12-to-14 years old). In some urbanized areas (like Dusseldorf, Hamburg, etc), this is expanding.
Part of this blame probably goes to marginal parenting skills, and part of it goes to society practices of just not enforcing the law and expectations upon young juveniles. Some of it involves social office behavior where they slack-off on problems, until they rise to major problems.
Will the juvenile age thing be lowered? I expect a state or two in Germany to take this action, and the rest will probably take the action within the next decade.
In general, and with relations to the law....from age fourteen on, you will be treated like a juvenile 'offender' if charged up with a crime. It means you go to youth-jail for a short period, and then forced into some behavior rehab deal (run by the local social office). It's not big-time situation, but it's enough to satisfy the general public.
Well, in the past year in Germany....some crimes have been noted by youth less than fourteen years old. Their path is generally a strong talking session with a judge and enforced social office visits upon the parents to be 'responsible'. Well....the public is now suggesting that they want the youth-jail situation and rehab deal, extended down to 12-year old kids.
For the politicians and judges, it's probably a bit of a shocker that the public is suggesting this.
What's going on?
I think most older Germans would go and discuss how things were before the Wall came down, and they'd go and suggest that unacceptable behavior is now being noted....mostly with young males (yes, down to the ages of 12-to-14 years old). In some urbanized areas (like Dusseldorf, Hamburg, etc), this is expanding.
Part of this blame probably goes to marginal parenting skills, and part of it goes to society practices of just not enforcing the law and expectations upon young juveniles. Some of it involves social office behavior where they slack-off on problems, until they rise to major problems.
Will the juvenile age thing be lowered? I expect a state or two in Germany to take this action, and the rest will probably take the action within the next decade.
The Bike Path Story
This is a local Wiesbaden type story which curiously now gets front-page attention in the local area.
In this region, we have a secondary road called B-42, which I would have to rate as one of the top twenty most scenic drives in Germany. It runs from Wiesbaden, along the Rhine River, through Rudesheim, Lorchhausen, and on up to Koblenz. The road itself? Highly maintained, and mostly a two-lane with occasional third lane added for passing.
Someone (probably a decade ago) came up with this idea of bike 'road' (path) going from Lorchausen to Rudesheim. It's an area of about 16 km (9.9 miles). The idea was....some folks would like to take the train over to Rudesheim, and maybe bike that 16 km with the bike they brought on the train, and at the end of the day....return themselves (and the bike) back to their original home, from Rudesheim.
So politicians from Hessen got involved. No one says what the original plan was, or how it was presented in the early days of planning. But the project is now signed off and going forward.
The present cost? Well.....115 million Euro. Yes, for a bike trail of 9.9 miles. In US currency, it's around 130-million dollars.
Roughly 10-million Euro per kilometer? Yes. For what amounts to a two-meter wide bike road? Yes.
Locals will say that it's a plus-up for some folks (the bike-enthusiast type), but for the other 95-percent crowd....it has no value. How this progressed up the chain, and the 115 million Euro were never openly discussed? Well, that's the extent of planning these days in Germany....the public rarely finds out about things like this.
In this region, we have a secondary road called B-42, which I would have to rate as one of the top twenty most scenic drives in Germany. It runs from Wiesbaden, along the Rhine River, through Rudesheim, Lorchhausen, and on up to Koblenz. The road itself? Highly maintained, and mostly a two-lane with occasional third lane added for passing.
Someone (probably a decade ago) came up with this idea of bike 'road' (path) going from Lorchausen to Rudesheim. It's an area of about 16 km (9.9 miles). The idea was....some folks would like to take the train over to Rudesheim, and maybe bike that 16 km with the bike they brought on the train, and at the end of the day....return themselves (and the bike) back to their original home, from Rudesheim.
So politicians from Hessen got involved. No one says what the original plan was, or how it was presented in the early days of planning. But the project is now signed off and going forward.
The present cost? Well.....115 million Euro. Yes, for a bike trail of 9.9 miles. In US currency, it's around 130-million dollars.
Roughly 10-million Euro per kilometer? Yes. For what amounts to a two-meter wide bike road? Yes.
Locals will say that it's a plus-up for some folks (the bike-enthusiast type), but for the other 95-percent crowd....it has no value. How this progressed up the chain, and the 115 million Euro were never openly discussed? Well, that's the extent of planning these days in Germany....the public rarely finds out about things like this.
Migrant Story
Big meeting held this week, and concluded yesterday....in Helsinki, Finland. The discussion topic for this EU group? Rescued refugees from the Med.
So they talked, and talked, and talked, and talked.
The basic proposal at the beginning of this conference....they really needed all 28 members of the EU to agree to take rescued Med folks out of Italy and Malt. The conclusion? No agreement.
The German press tried to put a positive spin on this story, and generally blame Italy and Malta. But the truth is....more than a handful of the membership (28) had questions which could not be answered.
Germany and France were willing to sign anything, with any number, and any scenario (if you go and read a dozen-odd journalists trying to describe the Helsinki meeting).
The chief issues?
First, even if you got everyone (the 28) to agree to a one-time distribution of the folks in Greek, Italian and Maltese facilities....what happens tomorrow when fresh rescues are accomplished? So this would be an open contract, and you could be potentially signing up for 10,000 refugees a year from the rescue crowd operation.
Second, you have no idea who exactly you are getting. Maybe it's some kid from Ghana, who has no criminal record, is mentally sane, and potentially productive. Maybe it's a nutcase from Afghanistan, with a past record of murder. Maybe it's a career criminal released from a prison in Kenya, with a drug-habit. You simply don't know who you'd be accepting.
Third, the whole basis of immigration is that you get a review of the person, and you eventually pronounce judgement of accepting them or not. This EU group wants the review process thrown out and never mentioned.
Fourth and final....you come to the element of a 'rescue', and ask yourself....if the guy paid $1,000 to $2,000 for a seat on a rubber-raft with a bottle of water....to be towed out near Lampedusa....is that a real rescue or just a fake-rescue? If a guy is paying for the seat and a tow.....doesn't it make a joke out of all the rescue business?
So the meeting ended, and the folks checked out of their five-star hotel rooms, and flew back home. In six months....there's probably another meeting scheduled, and more chatting over migrants, with the same expectations....a nice hotel, fine dining, and evening chats with the French.
The proposal sounded simple: all EU countries should take refugees, so that the rescue is not blocked. But the plan did not work out: some wanted more, others did not want. In fact, Germany and France had hoped to find a solution in the negotiations with other EU interior ministers on how to distribute Mediterranean-rescued migrants to EU member states. A "coalition of the willing to receive" should be forged - but this is nothing for the time being. The meeting in Helsinki ended without agreement.
So they talked, and talked, and talked, and talked.
The basic proposal at the beginning of this conference....they really needed all 28 members of the EU to agree to take rescued Med folks out of Italy and Malt. The conclusion? No agreement.
The German press tried to put a positive spin on this story, and generally blame Italy and Malta. But the truth is....more than a handful of the membership (28) had questions which could not be answered.
Germany and France were willing to sign anything, with any number, and any scenario (if you go and read a dozen-odd journalists trying to describe the Helsinki meeting).
The chief issues?
First, even if you got everyone (the 28) to agree to a one-time distribution of the folks in Greek, Italian and Maltese facilities....what happens tomorrow when fresh rescues are accomplished? So this would be an open contract, and you could be potentially signing up for 10,000 refugees a year from the rescue crowd operation.
Second, you have no idea who exactly you are getting. Maybe it's some kid from Ghana, who has no criminal record, is mentally sane, and potentially productive. Maybe it's a nutcase from Afghanistan, with a past record of murder. Maybe it's a career criminal released from a prison in Kenya, with a drug-habit. You simply don't know who you'd be accepting.
Third, the whole basis of immigration is that you get a review of the person, and you eventually pronounce judgement of accepting them or not. This EU group wants the review process thrown out and never mentioned.
Fourth and final....you come to the element of a 'rescue', and ask yourself....if the guy paid $1,000 to $2,000 for a seat on a rubber-raft with a bottle of water....to be towed out near Lampedusa....is that a real rescue or just a fake-rescue? If a guy is paying for the seat and a tow.....doesn't it make a joke out of all the rescue business?
So the meeting ended, and the folks checked out of their five-star hotel rooms, and flew back home. In six months....there's probably another meeting scheduled, and more chatting over migrants, with the same expectations....a nice hotel, fine dining, and evening chats with the French.
The proposal sounded simple: all EU countries should take refugees, so that the rescue is not blocked. But the plan did not work out: some wanted more, others did not want. In fact, Germany and France had hoped to find a solution in the negotiations with other EU interior ministers on how to distribute Mediterranean-rescued migrants to EU member states. A "coalition of the willing to receive" should be forged - but this is nothing for the time being. The meeting in Helsinki ended without agreement.
Elements of Crime in Germany
This is one of those essays where I talk to a number of topics and effects.
1. Car theft: This goes in two directions. First, just plain theft. This amounts to a fairly new (maybe one to two year old, luxury car (usually a BMW, Audi, or Porsche), that is stolen in the night. These are mostly 40k Euro or more type cars. Cops will generally say that they are driven across the country, into Czech.....and onto Bulgaria, Ukraine, or Russia. They believe (no real substance to the story) that the cars are registered with a different VIN there, and continue on.
The second direction is simply parts theft....where the guy takes the rims, the GPS screen, or the airbags....for a parts company. For you (the victim), it means your thousand Euro deductible falls into play....with you grumbling....as you go and spend a week waiting for parts and installation time. From the one occasion locally when someone was caught....this was a Ukrainian parts gang.
The effect here? My little village (4,000 residents) went through a serious year in 2015, with around nine cars stolen. One of the nine, was stolen from within 50 meters of my house (the renter's five-year old Audi station wagon). Folks were a bit shocked over that period (before the wall came down, they were lucky to see one car maybe every two years stolen).
2. Pickpockets. Before the wall came down, you usually worried about this to some marginal degree...in cities like Berlin or Hamburg. Today? Virtually everyone is more careful and this is a fairly frequent event. If your town is having a big fest episode....the odds are that at least one or two pickpockets are operating at the fest. At the bigger events (like in Stuttgart or Hamburg), you might have twenty of these folks roaming around the fest. The chief target is mostly cellphones and wallets.
3. Bicycles. I sat and watched a program last year where the guy had a bike rigged with a GPS, and placed in a public spot (locked). It disappeared within a day or two, and they easily tracked the bike to some location around 20 kilometers away. So the film-crew arrive and peek over the fence of this suburban lot, and there are probably 500 bikes sitting there (all stolen). It was a minor operation run by a couple of young guys.
Because the value of bike have escalated in the past two decades....it's a serious discussion. You have Germans spending way over 1,500 Euro ($2k in US currency). To suggest there is a big-time 2nd-hand bike sales situation going on? Well...not to the degree that you'd think. This leads some folks to think the bulk of the bikes are going into other countries (like Poland, Czech, or Ukraine).
4. Home burglary. I would divide this into two categories. First, you have the team that knows the guy in question is a collector of gold or keeps a fair amount of cash in the house (say over 100,000 Euro). This will be a guy who has a safe hidden in the basement or within some hidden area. The team will arrive....tie up the guy (and his wife) and then try to coach them into giving the location of the safe, and access to it.
The second category is the nickel and dime theft (usually a teen), who is ra
Ransacking the place (in and out in five minutes). He's looking for items of value (jewelry mostly). You can figure for each item of value....he's getting only 10-percent of the value when he unloads the item. Cops almost never catch these guys.
5. Store theft. Back around Xmas of 2015, I stood in a local upscale store of Wiesbaden....near the perfume department....noticing two security guys eyeballing a teen (non-German kid, maybe 13 years old). I have eyes on the kid for maybe three-quarters of a minute, and he turns.....seeing both them and me viewing him....then he takes off (a box in each hand, maybe the 50-to-70 Euro perfume). He's close to the door and reaches it before the two store detectives. So the race across the pedestrian area ensues. I stand there at the door for maybe five minutes, and the two detectives eventually return....without the kid. What the kid likely does with the two boxes? He'll sell them over to a middle-guy for around 20 Euro. That guy will have someone working for him at local flea-market operations....selling the 50-to-70 Euro perfume for 30-to-35 Euro each.
A grocery store operation in the north of Germany had a refugee center put into operation within walking distance in 2015. Some journalist had a discussion with the management. Almost daily, they had issues with theft to occur. They reached a point where they had a thug-guard at the door, and a guy actively viewing the security cameras. The cost of this? All added into the grocery prices, so that the normal guy was having to pay for the theft, and the added security.
This past year, I was in a multi-store operation within Wiesbaden, with a electronics shop on the 3rd and 4th floor. At the back-entrance (where I was coming), there's this escalator. Well, here's this large group of folks gathered at the bottom, and this 30-year old non-German being held to the ground by a store detective, and a Turk-German supervisor detective standing over him. Lot of talk going back and forth....obviously a theft, and the supervisor demanding an ID....which the thief only had some paperwork issued by the Auslander office of Wiesbaden. Cops might get called, but I doubt if the guy got more than a ban from the shop and some minor fine.
6. Drugs. Ever since the wall came down....I would say that in virtually every year....drug usage escalated slightly. There's a quarter of Frankfurt (a km by km area) where several hundred drugged-out folks hang out. It's mostly a heroin user group.....which adds a couple of folks each month, and a couple of folks overdose to relieve the local population of a handful of folks.
The dealers? It used to be purely Turkish and African. In the past five years....it's now a lot of North African guys and some Afghan folks. No one worries much about being arrested. The Frankfurt cops will make a round-up each week or two....but it does nothing to the drug escalation. Locals living around this are peeved and continually on the backs of the city council.....who seem unwilling to take major action because it'd trigger this to move into another zone of Frankfurt.
7. Theft from commercial delivery vehicles. There are various criminal gangs which actively go and look for vehicles to rob. It might be an entire truckload of chocolate, or in the case from the local area last year.....a trailer loaded down with Christmas-trees. All of this....requires 'fencing' (to a higher degree than you'd think).
8. ATM machines. There's hardly a day that goes by now in Germany....when an ATM machine isn't 'blown-up' and the money stolen. There's a science or technique to the idea....where a crew can arrive, and in a matter of fifteen minutes....blown up the machine to get at the 10k to 20k in Euro inside. The amusing thing to this....when you look at the remains of the machine (mostly costing in the range of 100-to-150 thousand Euro, and then you look at the building structure damaged (sometimes up into the 200k Euro range), it makes no sense. They caused 300k Euro in damage to get 10k in cash.
Some banks are actively looking at options (more security, more cameras), but the truth is....if the trend continues, then you will see a shut-down of ATM machines (It wouldn't surprise me if it occurs within the next fifteen years).
9. Untaxed tobacco. It sounds silly, but because tobacco taxes have risen so much over the past twenty years....you now have an active crime syndicate situation, where tobacco gets brought into Germany (from neighbors), and shady operations at shisha-bar operations openly sell the untaxed tobacco. You may think that you are buying regular German taxed tobacco, but at these shisha-bars....it's becoming popular to take a cut via untaxed tobacco.
How bad is this problem? Cops aren't sure. They know that they are making a dent into this with the night raids of the bars, but how much is questionable.
10. Cyber crimes. It's escalated over the past decade. Criminals have figured various ways to get into your emails, and your laptop. They stage fake bills....getting you to pay them for fake services. Some get your passwords for the bank account, and try to manipulate cash movements that way.
So you come to the end of this ask....who makes up this group? It's a big question. Some are obviously part of the migrant group that came in 2013 to present. But the bulk of these people are folks who came before that period, and represent various gangs and crime families (Lebanese, Serbian, Russian, Italian, Ukrainian, Gypsy, Bulgarian, Romanian, etc). Germans, in the minds of these people.....were not prepared for the extent of crime now being delivered. The German cops are motivated but generally lacking the tools or data to really go after major crime syndicates/gangs. Public frustration? It is growing and this crime discussion always fits into the top five to ten issues that Germans get hyped-up about.
1. Car theft: This goes in two directions. First, just plain theft. This amounts to a fairly new (maybe one to two year old, luxury car (usually a BMW, Audi, or Porsche), that is stolen in the night. These are mostly 40k Euro or more type cars. Cops will generally say that they are driven across the country, into Czech.....and onto Bulgaria, Ukraine, or Russia. They believe (no real substance to the story) that the cars are registered with a different VIN there, and continue on.
The second direction is simply parts theft....where the guy takes the rims, the GPS screen, or the airbags....for a parts company. For you (the victim), it means your thousand Euro deductible falls into play....with you grumbling....as you go and spend a week waiting for parts and installation time. From the one occasion locally when someone was caught....this was a Ukrainian parts gang.
The effect here? My little village (4,000 residents) went through a serious year in 2015, with around nine cars stolen. One of the nine, was stolen from within 50 meters of my house (the renter's five-year old Audi station wagon). Folks were a bit shocked over that period (before the wall came down, they were lucky to see one car maybe every two years stolen).
2. Pickpockets. Before the wall came down, you usually worried about this to some marginal degree...in cities like Berlin or Hamburg. Today? Virtually everyone is more careful and this is a fairly frequent event. If your town is having a big fest episode....the odds are that at least one or two pickpockets are operating at the fest. At the bigger events (like in Stuttgart or Hamburg), you might have twenty of these folks roaming around the fest. The chief target is mostly cellphones and wallets.
3. Bicycles. I sat and watched a program last year where the guy had a bike rigged with a GPS, and placed in a public spot (locked). It disappeared within a day or two, and they easily tracked the bike to some location around 20 kilometers away. So the film-crew arrive and peek over the fence of this suburban lot, and there are probably 500 bikes sitting there (all stolen). It was a minor operation run by a couple of young guys.
Because the value of bike have escalated in the past two decades....it's a serious discussion. You have Germans spending way over 1,500 Euro ($2k in US currency). To suggest there is a big-time 2nd-hand bike sales situation going on? Well...not to the degree that you'd think. This leads some folks to think the bulk of the bikes are going into other countries (like Poland, Czech, or Ukraine).
4. Home burglary. I would divide this into two categories. First, you have the team that knows the guy in question is a collector of gold or keeps a fair amount of cash in the house (say over 100,000 Euro). This will be a guy who has a safe hidden in the basement or within some hidden area. The team will arrive....tie up the guy (and his wife) and then try to coach them into giving the location of the safe, and access to it.
The second category is the nickel and dime theft (usually a teen), who is ra
Ransacking the place (in and out in five minutes). He's looking for items of value (jewelry mostly). You can figure for each item of value....he's getting only 10-percent of the value when he unloads the item. Cops almost never catch these guys.
5. Store theft. Back around Xmas of 2015, I stood in a local upscale store of Wiesbaden....near the perfume department....noticing two security guys eyeballing a teen (non-German kid, maybe 13 years old). I have eyes on the kid for maybe three-quarters of a minute, and he turns.....seeing both them and me viewing him....then he takes off (a box in each hand, maybe the 50-to-70 Euro perfume). He's close to the door and reaches it before the two store detectives. So the race across the pedestrian area ensues. I stand there at the door for maybe five minutes, and the two detectives eventually return....without the kid. What the kid likely does with the two boxes? He'll sell them over to a middle-guy for around 20 Euro. That guy will have someone working for him at local flea-market operations....selling the 50-to-70 Euro perfume for 30-to-35 Euro each.
A grocery store operation in the north of Germany had a refugee center put into operation within walking distance in 2015. Some journalist had a discussion with the management. Almost daily, they had issues with theft to occur. They reached a point where they had a thug-guard at the door, and a guy actively viewing the security cameras. The cost of this? All added into the grocery prices, so that the normal guy was having to pay for the theft, and the added security.
This past year, I was in a multi-store operation within Wiesbaden, with a electronics shop on the 3rd and 4th floor. At the back-entrance (where I was coming), there's this escalator. Well, here's this large group of folks gathered at the bottom, and this 30-year old non-German being held to the ground by a store detective, and a Turk-German supervisor detective standing over him. Lot of talk going back and forth....obviously a theft, and the supervisor demanding an ID....which the thief only had some paperwork issued by the Auslander office of Wiesbaden. Cops might get called, but I doubt if the guy got more than a ban from the shop and some minor fine.
6. Drugs. Ever since the wall came down....I would say that in virtually every year....drug usage escalated slightly. There's a quarter of Frankfurt (a km by km area) where several hundred drugged-out folks hang out. It's mostly a heroin user group.....which adds a couple of folks each month, and a couple of folks overdose to relieve the local population of a handful of folks.
The dealers? It used to be purely Turkish and African. In the past five years....it's now a lot of North African guys and some Afghan folks. No one worries much about being arrested. The Frankfurt cops will make a round-up each week or two....but it does nothing to the drug escalation. Locals living around this are peeved and continually on the backs of the city council.....who seem unwilling to take major action because it'd trigger this to move into another zone of Frankfurt.
7. Theft from commercial delivery vehicles. There are various criminal gangs which actively go and look for vehicles to rob. It might be an entire truckload of chocolate, or in the case from the local area last year.....a trailer loaded down with Christmas-trees. All of this....requires 'fencing' (to a higher degree than you'd think).
8. ATM machines. There's hardly a day that goes by now in Germany....when an ATM machine isn't 'blown-up' and the money stolen. There's a science or technique to the idea....where a crew can arrive, and in a matter of fifteen minutes....blown up the machine to get at the 10k to 20k in Euro inside. The amusing thing to this....when you look at the remains of the machine (mostly costing in the range of 100-to-150 thousand Euro, and then you look at the building structure damaged (sometimes up into the 200k Euro range), it makes no sense. They caused 300k Euro in damage to get 10k in cash.
Some banks are actively looking at options (more security, more cameras), but the truth is....if the trend continues, then you will see a shut-down of ATM machines (It wouldn't surprise me if it occurs within the next fifteen years).
9. Untaxed tobacco. It sounds silly, but because tobacco taxes have risen so much over the past twenty years....you now have an active crime syndicate situation, where tobacco gets brought into Germany (from neighbors), and shady operations at shisha-bar operations openly sell the untaxed tobacco. You may think that you are buying regular German taxed tobacco, but at these shisha-bars....it's becoming popular to take a cut via untaxed tobacco.
How bad is this problem? Cops aren't sure. They know that they are making a dent into this with the night raids of the bars, but how much is questionable.
10. Cyber crimes. It's escalated over the past decade. Criminals have figured various ways to get into your emails, and your laptop. They stage fake bills....getting you to pay them for fake services. Some get your passwords for the bank account, and try to manipulate cash movements that way.
So you come to the end of this ask....who makes up this group? It's a big question. Some are obviously part of the migrant group that came in 2013 to present. But the bulk of these people are folks who came before that period, and represent various gangs and crime families (Lebanese, Serbian, Russian, Italian, Ukrainian, Gypsy, Bulgarian, Romanian, etc). Germans, in the minds of these people.....were not prepared for the extent of crime now being delivered. The German cops are motivated but generally lacking the tools or data to really go after major crime syndicates/gangs. Public frustration? It is growing and this crime discussion always fits into the top five to ten issues that Germans get hyped-up about.
Thursday, July 18, 2019
Train and Air Story
It's a humorous three-line story, on the German Environmental Ministry. They got all hyped up this week to talk about how flights ought to cost more than railway travel, and you would re-enforce this practice by making up a tax on flights to increase the cost.
Well....someone opened up the book between January and July, and it just so happens that the Bonn-based Ministry....had to fly 1,740 times (round-trip) between Berlin and Koln....to reach Bonn.
Normal cost for a round-trip ticket? Well....forty-two Euro for the ultra-cheap ticket and maybe up to eighty-nine Euro for the normal regular ticket.
Bahn (railway prices)? This gets interesting? If you were willing to leave at 4:30 AM or 11 PM at night....you could still get a round-trip ticket (2nd class) for roughly 40 Euro. Mid-day? You'd be talking about 85 to 120 Euro (RT).
Why make this trip to Bonn? I kinda wondered about that. The actual headquarters of the Environmental Ministry? It's in Bonn....not Berlin. They were among those organizations that choose not to move, and just stayed there in Bonn. So roughly 67 folks a week, have some type of presence necessary in Berlin, and make the trip over there....via flights, not the Bahn.
If they were successful in getting a tax on flights to bring air travel up to Bahn prices (say the 120 level)? Well....it'd double or triple their flight cost. But you need not worry....it's the German tax-payer that would pay the higher tax rate.....not the government guy.
Well....someone opened up the book between January and July, and it just so happens that the Bonn-based Ministry....had to fly 1,740 times (round-trip) between Berlin and Koln....to reach Bonn.
Normal cost for a round-trip ticket? Well....forty-two Euro for the ultra-cheap ticket and maybe up to eighty-nine Euro for the normal regular ticket.
Bahn (railway prices)? This gets interesting? If you were willing to leave at 4:30 AM or 11 PM at night....you could still get a round-trip ticket (2nd class) for roughly 40 Euro. Mid-day? You'd be talking about 85 to 120 Euro (RT).
Why make this trip to Bonn? I kinda wondered about that. The actual headquarters of the Environmental Ministry? It's in Bonn....not Berlin. They were among those organizations that choose not to move, and just stayed there in Bonn. So roughly 67 folks a week, have some type of presence necessary in Berlin, and make the trip over there....via flights, not the Bahn.
If they were successful in getting a tax on flights to bring air travel up to Bahn prices (say the 120 level)? Well....it'd double or triple their flight cost. But you need not worry....it's the German tax-payer that would pay the higher tax rate.....not the government guy.
Hoodlums, Hooligans, and Juvenile Gangs
One of the odd factors that you see a bit of growth on in Europe (especially in London and Paris)....are hoodlum, hooligan and juvenile 'gangs'.
In Germany? There are some minor indications of this problem starting....mostly seen in the NW of the country (where a higher rate of non-Germans have settled in). I would put some of the blame on non-willing nature of prosecutors, social office administrators and judges to squarely put some effort into resolutions.
This publicly discussed rape by some juvenile 'punk's from three weeks was an example of that.
In terms of traveling around in the Hessen region via train and bus? You don't readily notice this issue. No, there are acid-attacks, or thug-like behavior that gets noticed.
No-go areas? I tend to mark areas on the map (one spot by the SE end of Wiesbaden's station, and a km-by-km area near the Frankfurt station) as a no-go area, but it's more so because of drugs than thugs. After 10 PM at night, I might go and mark an area between Wiesbaden's station and downtown area....mostly because of robbery episodes that see listed in the police blotter three or four times a week.
Robbery? Snatch and go crimes still get to be routine in the Wiesbaden shopping district, with pick-pockets more active than they were twenty years ago.
Why hasn't Germany seen what happened in Paris and London? Maybe it's the proactive nature of the cops, and reaction by city councils (worried over voting trends) that trigger serious handling of events. Most all of the urban areas have a substantial police presence, and they could easily go and throw forty cops at some zone....to show a presence and determination over public safety.
Bottom line, in terms of general safety....I haven't reached a point where I tend to worry much except for break-in's. I admit I added lights, and to tend to be proactive. But it's just the same place as I viewed back in the 1980s (before the wall came down).
In Germany? There are some minor indications of this problem starting....mostly seen in the NW of the country (where a higher rate of non-Germans have settled in). I would put some of the blame on non-willing nature of prosecutors, social office administrators and judges to squarely put some effort into resolutions.
This publicly discussed rape by some juvenile 'punk's from three weeks was an example of that.
In terms of traveling around in the Hessen region via train and bus? You don't readily notice this issue. No, there are acid-attacks, or thug-like behavior that gets noticed.
No-go areas? I tend to mark areas on the map (one spot by the SE end of Wiesbaden's station, and a km-by-km area near the Frankfurt station) as a no-go area, but it's more so because of drugs than thugs. After 10 PM at night, I might go and mark an area between Wiesbaden's station and downtown area....mostly because of robbery episodes that see listed in the police blotter three or four times a week.
Robbery? Snatch and go crimes still get to be routine in the Wiesbaden shopping district, with pick-pockets more active than they were twenty years ago.
Why hasn't Germany seen what happened in Paris and London? Maybe it's the proactive nature of the cops, and reaction by city councils (worried over voting trends) that trigger serious handling of events. Most all of the urban areas have a substantial police presence, and they could easily go and throw forty cops at some zone....to show a presence and determination over public safety.
Bottom line, in terms of general safety....I haven't reached a point where I tend to worry much except for break-in's. I admit I added lights, and to tend to be proactive. But it's just the same place as I viewed back in the 1980s (before the wall came down).
Terror Arrests?
It's a short four-line type story this morning....ARD reporting it....cops had a raid on a residence or two in northern Germany (Koln and Duren).
Started at around 4 AM....four guys have been picked up and the cops suggest a terror action was planned by the Islamic group.
At the heart of the investigation? Several unusual financial transactions (no one says the amount or where it came from).
A dozen cellphones were confiscated and some computer gear is being evaluated.
The head guy in the group? Journalists simply say he had connections that went across three German states (Berlin, NRW, and Hessen).
Started at around 4 AM....four guys have been picked up and the cops suggest a terror action was planned by the Islamic group.
At the heart of the investigation? Several unusual financial transactions (no one says the amount or where it came from).
A dozen cellphones were confiscated and some computer gear is being evaluated.
The head guy in the group? Journalists simply say he had connections that went across three German states (Berlin, NRW, and Hessen).
Mandatory Measles Vaccination Story
This came up as a five-line hot topic this morning in Germany.
The Health Minister, Jens Spahn....CDU Party, now wants to bring in this bill for mandatory measles vaccinations.
Who falls under this, if passed? Children and staff in day-care operations, kindergartens, and schools. Also, all personnel associated with medical operations. Also all staff associated with community centers. Also all of those within asylum centers, refugee shelters, and vacation 'centers'.
How many are not meeting the requirement presently? Unknown. That's an odd part of the story told by journalists. Doctors will give you an estimate but most will admit there is no real solid data to rely upon.
Reaching into refugee and asylum centers? That's a curious part of the story, and I would suggest that the bulk of incoming folks don't have this vaccination, and will question the necessity of this.
Who got left out of this mandatory deal? The Bundestag. Yes....the Chancellor and company were left out.
The Health Minister, Jens Spahn....CDU Party, now wants to bring in this bill for mandatory measles vaccinations.
Who falls under this, if passed? Children and staff in day-care operations, kindergartens, and schools. Also, all personnel associated with medical operations. Also all staff associated with community centers. Also all of those within asylum centers, refugee shelters, and vacation 'centers'.
How many are not meeting the requirement presently? Unknown. That's an odd part of the story told by journalists. Doctors will give you an estimate but most will admit there is no real solid data to rely upon.
Reaching into refugee and asylum centers? That's a curious part of the story, and I would suggest that the bulk of incoming folks don't have this vaccination, and will question the necessity of this.
Who got left out of this mandatory deal? The Bundestag. Yes....the Chancellor and company were left out.
The Train Versus Flight Story
It came up in page one news today within Germany.....that the Environmental Minister wants to create a tax on air flights. So the dramatics to this particular tax center on this one single concept....you simply can't have airline flights which are cheaper than train tickets. I know....logic might suggest that, but reality plays into it.
Here are two entirely different travel situations, built on differing profit and cost mechanisms. The Bahn folks have varying ticket options, which could easily lead to the cheapest ticket....you'd have to start the trip at a certain time, on a certain day. You could even go and buy the Bahn-card, which would discount your trip by 25-to-50 percent.
Certain Bahn routes have more frequent trains.....like the Hamburg to Berlin line.
Why the necessity of getting into this pricing business, and creating a fake reality? All connected to the C02 business.
The amount suggested? So far, the Minister has avoided that topic....my guess is that it'd be a couple of Euro and on up to maybe 30 Euro. The fact that the Bahn guys might be encouraged to jack their rate up forty percent, thus force the tax higher? Well, they could do that.
Lets add one other factor into this.....a lot of people simply don't want to waste four to six hours on the Bahn route.....that they could achieve in 90 minutes via the plane. Some airports in Germany are working on 'quick' check-in and 'quick' security review....meaning you could be dropped off at the curb....have only a carry-on....walk through a security point in 15 minutes, and spend 20 minutes walking to the concourse point.
The reliability factor? This is another point of the discussion....in that the Bahn is slowly dragging customers down, and turning a four-hour trip into seven or eight hours.
Expect to hear more about this before the end of 2019.
Here are two entirely different travel situations, built on differing profit and cost mechanisms. The Bahn folks have varying ticket options, which could easily lead to the cheapest ticket....you'd have to start the trip at a certain time, on a certain day. You could even go and buy the Bahn-card, which would discount your trip by 25-to-50 percent.
Certain Bahn routes have more frequent trains.....like the Hamburg to Berlin line.
Why the necessity of getting into this pricing business, and creating a fake reality? All connected to the C02 business.
The amount suggested? So far, the Minister has avoided that topic....my guess is that it'd be a couple of Euro and on up to maybe 30 Euro. The fact that the Bahn guys might be encouraged to jack their rate up forty percent, thus force the tax higher? Well, they could do that.
Lets add one other factor into this.....a lot of people simply don't want to waste four to six hours on the Bahn route.....that they could achieve in 90 minutes via the plane. Some airports in Germany are working on 'quick' check-in and 'quick' security review....meaning you could be dropped off at the curb....have only a carry-on....walk through a security point in 15 minutes, and spend 20 minutes walking to the concourse point.
The reliability factor? This is another point of the discussion....in that the Bahn is slowly dragging customers down, and turning a four-hour trip into seven or eight hours.
Expect to hear more about this before the end of 2019.
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
The Arrival at the EU of von der Leyen?
Is it a big deal?
Well, for the German political apparatus, yes. For the German news media, yes. But for the regular guy on the street in Munich, or Amsterdam, or in some village in Spain? No.
Her position is mostly ceremonial....there for speeches, TV interviews, and to hand out awards. Beyond that....the selection doesn't really mean much.
Was it a close election? If you survey the numbers....Merkel had to call in some favors, and there was marginally (just around 10 extra votes) to get this five-year deal done. If those calls and favors hadn't been done? It would have been a massive collapse in confidence for Merkel and her vision.
Will it mean numerous interviews for von der Leyen with the German press? No doubt. I would imagine that she gets invited to at least a dozen public forums or discussion on German TV over the next six months, and the CDU tries to get as much 'pop and fizz' out of this as possible.
Any chance of the US-EU trade agreement coming back via van der Leyen? No. So about every month or two....Trump will go and aim the laser-pointer at something....talk up another trade problem and new trade tariff, and von der Leyen will talk how 'friends' don't tariff each other.
So other than remembering her name, and closeness of the ballot....the five years will simply pass without a lot of hype.
Well, for the German political apparatus, yes. For the German news media, yes. But for the regular guy on the street in Munich, or Amsterdam, or in some village in Spain? No.
Her position is mostly ceremonial....there for speeches, TV interviews, and to hand out awards. Beyond that....the selection doesn't really mean much.
Was it a close election? If you survey the numbers....Merkel had to call in some favors, and there was marginally (just around 10 extra votes) to get this five-year deal done. If those calls and favors hadn't been done? It would have been a massive collapse in confidence for Merkel and her vision.
Will it mean numerous interviews for von der Leyen with the German press? No doubt. I would imagine that she gets invited to at least a dozen public forums or discussion on German TV over the next six months, and the CDU tries to get as much 'pop and fizz' out of this as possible.
Any chance of the US-EU trade agreement coming back via van der Leyen? No. So about every month or two....Trump will go and aim the laser-pointer at something....talk up another trade problem and new trade tariff, and von der Leyen will talk how 'friends' don't tariff each other.
So other than remembering her name, and closeness of the ballot....the five years will simply pass without a lot of hype.
Slug Story
Right now in Germany, politicians and journalists are hyped-up over right-wing violence and potential threats. The public, if you read polling data, suggests they now fear right-wing threats more than terrorism....but that shift has only occurred since the news media has hyped the murder of the Kassel CDU politician.
Well....a couple of days ago (Monday), over in Hockenheim (about 10 miles south of Mannheim, in the mid-section of Germany)....the Mayor of the town had some guy ring the doorbell, and ask for him. The door was apparently closed on the guy, so he walked around the house to the backyard, found Dieter Gummer (mayor), and slugged him pretty hard (enough to break the jaw).....knocking him to the ground, and then left. Apparently, nothing spoken before the punch.
SWR (the regional public TV folks) talked over the subject this morning. Naturally, the cops are all disturbed over this, and the news media has hyped it as a right-wing potential attack.
But there is this one odd feature of the story. The attacker was dark-skinned and had an accent.
Odds of this guy being right-wing? I just haven't noticed too many dark-skinned folks in Germany who are conservative right-wing types. Having an accent? Well, you can't find many right-wing radicals who have an accent.
The odds that this knock-down has nothing to do with right-wing radicalism? It's pretty high odds, if you ask me. It would have been nice if the guy had something to say....before he slugged the mayor, but that apparently wasn't part of the situation.
So I'd go and caution folks not to buy too much into all this right-wing threat stuff, and just label each situation as it comes up. The sad thing....this might have been some disgruntled Greek guy angry over city management making things tough for his cafe.
Well....a couple of days ago (Monday), over in Hockenheim (about 10 miles south of Mannheim, in the mid-section of Germany)....the Mayor of the town had some guy ring the doorbell, and ask for him. The door was apparently closed on the guy, so he walked around the house to the backyard, found Dieter Gummer (mayor), and slugged him pretty hard (enough to break the jaw).....knocking him to the ground, and then left. Apparently, nothing spoken before the punch.
SWR (the regional public TV folks) talked over the subject this morning. Naturally, the cops are all disturbed over this, and the news media has hyped it as a right-wing potential attack.
But there is this one odd feature of the story. The attacker was dark-skinned and had an accent.
Odds of this guy being right-wing? I just haven't noticed too many dark-skinned folks in Germany who are conservative right-wing types. Having an accent? Well, you can't find many right-wing radicals who have an accent.
The odds that this knock-down has nothing to do with right-wing radicalism? It's pretty high odds, if you ask me. It would have been nice if the guy had something to say....before he slugged the mayor, but that apparently wasn't part of the situation.
So I'd go and caution folks not to buy too much into all this right-wing threat stuff, and just label each situation as it comes up. The sad thing....this might have been some disgruntled Greek guy angry over city management making things tough for his cafe.
E-Scooter Story
We are in the beginning of the E-Scooter period (where it's now legal in Germany, but loaded with regulation and governmental authority).
I noted this morning via RBB (the Berlin public TV network), that the German cops in Berlin are now staging 'audits' on the streets of the city. In one morning, they stopped 21 E-Scooter operators, and 11 were in some form of illegal status. They even noted that a couple were using the E-Scooters but were under the age of fourteen years old.
If you read through the story though....most were noted as tourists (non-Berliners).
The Bundestag spent a fair amount of time arguing over a number of rules and regulations, and it basically laid the path to the general rule of Germany ('we need to manage and over-regulate this'). My guess is that the cops in Berlin and most all urbanized regions....will be spending a fair number of man-hours each week....trying to establish authority while the E-Scooter crowd grows in numbers.
Over the past year, while visiting around in the Netherlands, Spain, and Czech.....I have to admit that this E-Scooter trend is growing at a fantastic rate. Just in Barcelona alone....I'd take a guess that more than 20,000 E-Scooters are active every single day.
Just my humble feeling over this....but by spring of 2020, I expect at least one German city to totally outlaw the E-Scooters because no one will conform to the regulations.
I noted this morning via RBB (the Berlin public TV network), that the German cops in Berlin are now staging 'audits' on the streets of the city. In one morning, they stopped 21 E-Scooter operators, and 11 were in some form of illegal status. They even noted that a couple were using the E-Scooters but were under the age of fourteen years old.
If you read through the story though....most were noted as tourists (non-Berliners).
The Bundestag spent a fair amount of time arguing over a number of rules and regulations, and it basically laid the path to the general rule of Germany ('we need to manage and over-regulate this'). My guess is that the cops in Berlin and most all urbanized regions....will be spending a fair number of man-hours each week....trying to establish authority while the E-Scooter crowd grows in numbers.
Over the past year, while visiting around in the Netherlands, Spain, and Czech.....I have to admit that this E-Scooter trend is growing at a fantastic rate. Just in Barcelona alone....I'd take a guess that more than 20,000 E-Scooters are active every single day.
Just my humble feeling over this....but by spring of 2020, I expect at least one German city to totally outlaw the E-Scooters because no one will conform to the regulations.
Sea Watch 3 Saga Continuing?
Well....yeah.
The basis of the story (going back around four to six weeks ago) was a German flagged 'rescue-vessel' that stands in the Med, and pulls up to rubber-rafted people just floating there in the Med....to rescue them, and transport them to the nearest Italian port (an island in the Med). In this case, the Italians finally said 'enough' and tried to refuse them entry into the port. Some bad communications occurred....news media attention....and finally the German captain barged into the port with 'sick' rescued migrants aboard. The Italians pressed charges, and the news media gave the impression that that case 'ended'.
Most news media folks kinda hinted that the whole story was wrapped up when the Italians released the German captain. Well, it didn't really end.
If you follow NDR news, the Sea Watch 3 captain has to appear in an Italian court again. The original court date (weeks ago) was cancelled because of a strike.
There's basically two charges hanging there. One, that she disobeyed the orders of the harbor authorities, in entering the port. Two, she is accused of having some type of arrangement (deal) with the smugglers and knows the location of the raft before the 'rescue'.
So you examine both charges, and add in this one issue....the 'Law of the Seas'. Signed by Italy, the law says that any ship coming upon drifters in the sea, must provide rescue and bring them to the nearest port.
I don't think the first charge, disobeying the harbor authorities will go anywhere. They are stuck by the Law of the Seas situation....having to accept the 'rescue' and it's crowd.
On the second charge, unless they come up with insider info....the Italians will be unable to prove the case.
But when you gaze at the map, there is a boomerang-shaped area that you have to drag a rubber-raft (loaded with 50 to 100 people) to.....being beyond the legal limits of Libya and Tunisia, and being just close enough to Lampedusa (the isle)....to ensure legality.
What the Italians could do? They could simply ask for identity papers and refer all of the rescued back to their home countries. Claiming asylum? Well, you could. Then the problem goes to Italy and its court system....spending weeks, months, and maybe several years in reaching a situation with each rescued individual. Unless you had some great evidence, or be in the middle of a war....the asylum thing would eventually be denied.
This talk last week that the Italians were going to meet with Tunisia and Libya....to discuss options, might prove to be the next problem for the rescue crowd. If the Libyans did get aggressive and start dragging the rubber-raft crowd back to shore themselves....it'd tip the $1,000 a seat smuggling routine over, and make the whole effort worthless to attempt.
The basis of the story (going back around four to six weeks ago) was a German flagged 'rescue-vessel' that stands in the Med, and pulls up to rubber-rafted people just floating there in the Med....to rescue them, and transport them to the nearest Italian port (an island in the Med). In this case, the Italians finally said 'enough' and tried to refuse them entry into the port. Some bad communications occurred....news media attention....and finally the German captain barged into the port with 'sick' rescued migrants aboard. The Italians pressed charges, and the news media gave the impression that that case 'ended'.
Most news media folks kinda hinted that the whole story was wrapped up when the Italians released the German captain. Well, it didn't really end.
If you follow NDR news, the Sea Watch 3 captain has to appear in an Italian court again. The original court date (weeks ago) was cancelled because of a strike.
There's basically two charges hanging there. One, that she disobeyed the orders of the harbor authorities, in entering the port. Two, she is accused of having some type of arrangement (deal) with the smugglers and knows the location of the raft before the 'rescue'.
So you examine both charges, and add in this one issue....the 'Law of the Seas'. Signed by Italy, the law says that any ship coming upon drifters in the sea, must provide rescue and bring them to the nearest port.
I don't think the first charge, disobeying the harbor authorities will go anywhere. They are stuck by the Law of the Seas situation....having to accept the 'rescue' and it's crowd.
On the second charge, unless they come up with insider info....the Italians will be unable to prove the case.
But when you gaze at the map, there is a boomerang-shaped area that you have to drag a rubber-raft (loaded with 50 to 100 people) to.....being beyond the legal limits of Libya and Tunisia, and being just close enough to Lampedusa (the isle)....to ensure legality.
What the Italians could do? They could simply ask for identity papers and refer all of the rescued back to their home countries. Claiming asylum? Well, you could. Then the problem goes to Italy and its court system....spending weeks, months, and maybe several years in reaching a situation with each rescued individual. Unless you had some great evidence, or be in the middle of a war....the asylum thing would eventually be denied.
This talk last week that the Italians were going to meet with Tunisia and Libya....to discuss options, might prove to be the next problem for the rescue crowd. If the Libyans did get aggressive and start dragging the rubber-raft crowd back to shore themselves....it'd tip the $1,000 a seat smuggling routine over, and make the whole effort worthless to attempt.
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