The 3,800 Story

It's a page-two type story in Germany this weekend, and you have to ponder over how it'll play out.

So, the 'Doctors Without Borders' group has sent this 'message' (request) to the German authorities.  They want Germany to take in approximately 3,800 non-Libyan refugees currently in Libya.  Chief reason?  The Libyan coast guard operation is actually going and picking up rubber rafts to a small degree, and bringing the individuals back into Libya (something that the Italian government wants to increase to a major degree). 

Once these raft-folks get brought back into Libya....they get dumped into camps which are marginally acceptable.  Lets face it, Libya would prefer these folks go back to their original countries.

You might go and ask....if they take the 3,800 refugees....is that the end of the discussion?  Well....no.  What some people suggest is that roughly half-a-million non-Libyans are in some funnel at present, waiting on their chance to pay some smuggler group for a seat on a raft and hope to be dragged out far enough to get 'rescued' to Lampedusa (the Italian isle).  Is the half-a-million number accurate?  That gets argued about, and some folks think it's on the low end....suggesting that it's closer to one-million.

How would this all work?

This gets to an interesting scenario.  You'd basically need German journalists (mostly with public TV like ZDF and ARD) to launch a story-trend where video is shot in the refugee camp, and some woeful tale is woven....that kindness of Germans needs to find a way to help these poor 3,800 folks.  You'd find the right crew to appear on public forum TV programs, and seek some public support.  Then you'd find the right three or four political figures (maybe Merkel in the mix) to support the idea.

The timing on this?  It has to occur ONLY after the three state elections in the fall (after 27 October).  A week or two after that election, the CDU and SPD can invent some crisis chatter, and agree to empty out compound X.  What you will notice is that the Libyans will realize the intention at work, and the 3,800 folks in the compound will increase (maybe to 6,000....maybe to 8,000). 

As the group starts to arrive in Germany....someone will ask if they have to do the paperwork like the Syrians and Iraqis did, and find that some new rule was invented where there is no BAMF paperwork process or approval. 

At this point, some Germans will turn and start asking a lot of stupid questions and find virtually no public TV journalist interested....or any politician willing to talk in public about the matter. 

The empty compound back in Libya?  Within days, it'll be refilled with a thousand migrants, and start on the crisis number two.  Two or three months later, there will be 10,000 in the compound, and waiting for the next German 'rescue'.