This C02 Chatter

I noticed this morning that a news piece involved a question or two thrown at the Chancellor, and she responded that 'yes, there's going to be a C02 tax'. 

Timing?  When they return from summer vacation, this appears to be topic number one.

Cost?  Well, if you are talking about gas going up....the current talk is that a 10-cent per liter tax for C02 will start by early next year.  So if you figure the current average of around 1.45 Euro per liter (for gas) then gas will escalate to 1.55 Euro per liter.  But here's the interesting thing....by 2025, it'd go up to 30 cents on the tax.  By 2030, it'd go up to 50 cents.

The guy who really starts to get screwed?  This is an interesting scenario.  Because of frustration with metropolitan living, you see a lot of Germans who leave the city they work in (Frankfurt is a good example), and they live 50 to 100 kilometers outside of the city.  That guy, because of the mileage he'll put in each day to reach work....will likely contribute around 500 to 1000 Euro a year in this new tax, and it'll escalate as each year goes by.

Now you might ask how all this money coming in...will be used.  Well, that's the part of the episode that has not been publicly discussed.  I suspect that they will plow the money back in 'gifts' to the public, fixing the pension program, repairing more bridges, and resolving the welfare crisis. 

What happens if Germans get all emotional and start to deny use of cars.....with the 'gift' money in progress?  This scenario has not been discussed at all, and it's entirely possible that you might wake up in 2025, and Germans have cut back 20-percent of their mileage....with a new crisis existing....'gifts' going out but not enough money existing to pay for them.

As long as the public believes the environmental crisis, this will continue forward.  The minute that you start to have debate and a quarter of society reaches the non-believer status....it's going to have an affect on politics. 

So this brings up the obvious question....will this gas-tax shift people around to electric cars?  I have a mixed opinion about this.  Right now, there is no C02 connection to electricity in this debate.  Eventually, some environmental group will bring up this topic, and I suspect a tax will start there (probably after 2030).  To make this whole argument on C02 work, there has to be a massive shift to e-cars over the next generation.  Right now, if you were going to ask when we (in Germany) hit the 50-percent point of e-car use....it'll probably be at least 2050.  Part of this is the cost for the cars, and the other being the stupid limits of charging. 

At the end of this whole discussion....the real question is....will Germans cut back on mileage?  And it's a big unknown.