I tend to see four events leading up to NATO dissolving, and they each need to occur within the space of about a year:
1. Next German election (anticipated in the fall of 2021).
2. Trump winning the November 2020 election.
3. Green Party Chancellor coming out of the German election business.
4. BREXIT occurring (likely to be no-deal situation), and Boris Johnson ending up with a unusual relationship with the US (more than just commerce and trade).
These four events will be intertwined and the Green Party Chancellor will be the key element which starts the dissolving episode. Most German conservatives will be shocked how easily the event occurs, and how the EU suddenly fills the gap.
If the one or two of the events don't occur? Then I have doubts over NATO dissolving.
No comments:
Post a Comment