Yesterday, the spending schedule for the German government came out for the railway system came out. The Germans will be throwing an extra billion Euro a year at the Bahn (the railway network) starting in 2021.
The purpose is to prepare for doubling the passenger traffic within ten years.
By 2025, that amount will go up to 2-billion Euro a year.
So the general question is....if you sit and think about it.....even if you spend all this money, will the public come to accept the public transportation situation? Personally, I have my doubts.
Over the past couple of years, I've been around Munich, Berlin, and Hamburg. I live in the shadow of Frankfurt and have a fairly good view of how the public transportation sector works there. And I live in the Wiesbaden area.....so I get a chance to see the bus, tram, and S-Bahn system work on a daily basis.
I'll offer these four observations:
1. Between 6 and 9 AM.....the Bahn and regional railway system is fairly full. The bus network is pretty well stretched, with most buses carrying maximum passenger load (folks are standing). Maybe you could add a few more buses, but other than one or two extra cars per train would be your limit.
2. Most of the bigger issues are simply platform length in most subway stations (as you look around cities like Hamburg or Frankfurt). Maybe you could carve out another 100 meters of space, and add onto various platforms....thus giving you a chance to add one or two more cars to each train.
3. The hostility situation is pretty hyped up right now, and it's easy to get 300 Germans outraged if the railway management announces a 20-minute delay, and adds an extra 20 minutes along the route to Frankfurt with 'pauses'. Convincing people to park their car and use the train? I think you are near the saturation point presently, and maybe maxed out.
4. Influence of weather. This rarely gets talked about. But we have these wind storms that arrive occasionally....maybe four or five times a year, and it heavily influences the traffic, and sometimes shuts down an entire route because of trees falling on lines. Just to come out at 7 AM and suggest that route 'X' is down, and your alternate route to Frankfurt involves an extra 60 minutes.....would freak out a lot of commuters.
So I'm not that convinced that doubling the traffic load is a useful idea. You just end up with more grumpy Germans, and public criticism doubling from what it is already.
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