After watching France-24, BBC, the German news networks, and CNN....I'll offer my humble opinion.
The fact that Iran won't offer up the black box to anyone else to review (even China or Russia)....really makes this difficult to guess what happened. Obviously, they don't want to say much.
The pilot turning around? That maneuver had barely started, with no verbal text to anyone. The video with a suggested fire going on? All of that would lead to only three conclusions: (1) major malfunction with both engines (the plane can operate for a minimum time with one engine, so it makes this less likely), (2) either gunfire at the cabin (affecting the aircrew) or a rocket/missile on the engine (unlikely because just hitting one engine wouldn't do the job), or (3) some idiot with a bomb on the plane (what I see as the more likely scenario). The bomb scenario is a bit unusual because it's barely in the air for a minute or two.
The problem now? The government's credibility is zero presently, and it won't improve.
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